the impact of climate change and drought on water...

Pasadena Water and Power

The Impact of Climate Change and Drought on Water Quality

Presented by David Kimbrough, Ph.D., Water Quality Manager

Presented to 10th Annual EOH Technical Symposium

Drinking Water Policy in California: Environmental & Occupational Health Aspects

March 4, 2015


Climate Change

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF WHEN YOU THINK OF CLIMATE CHANGE?


Climate Change and Pasadena



History


Joseph Fourier

• The “Hot House Theory” of global warming was first advanced by Joseph Fourier, the French physicist and mathematician in 1824.

• He calculated that the Earth should be considerably colder than it actually is if warmed by only the effects of incoming solar radiation.

• He argued that the atmosphere trapped heat.

• He cited the work of Horace Bénédicte de Saussure who built a glass device to capture the heat of the sun.

> “Remarques générales sur les Temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires” (Annales de Chimie et de Physique, pp. 136-167, Tome XXVII, Octobre 1824. Paris: Crochard).


John Tyndall

• Invented the first ratio spectrometer and calculated which gases absorbed the most infra-red radiation.

> “On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption and Conduction” (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, pp. 1-36, Vol. 151, Part I, 1861.


Svante Arrhenius

• “…doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°.”

• .∆F = α ln (C/C0) > ”On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon

the Temperature of the Ground” (Philosophical Magazine 1896, 41, 237-276)

• “The enormous combustion of coal by our industrial establishments suffices to increase the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air to a perceptible degree…we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth, ages when the earth will bring forth much more abundant crops than at present, for the benefit of rapidly propagating mankind.“ > Worlds in the Making 1908



Geek Slides


Daytime Temperatures 1885 – 2014 N = 47,228


Daytime Temperatures 1885 - 2000


Daytime Temperatures 1911 & 2011



Difference of 3.4 oC A 14% Increase


Nighttime Temperatures 1885 – 2014 N = 47,228


Nighttime Temperatures 1885 - 2000


Nighttime Temperatures 1885 - 2014


Nighttime Temperatures 1911 & 2011


February Temperatures with 10th and 90th %iles 1885 - 2014


February Daytime Temperatures


Kruskal-Wallis One Way Analysis of Variance on Ranks for February


February Nighttime Temperature



Difference of 4.5 oC A 102% Increase.


August Temperatures with 10th and 90th %iles 1885 - 2014


August Daytime Temperatures


August Nighttime Temperature



Difference of 4.1 oC A 32% Increase.


Daytime Temperatures by Month and Decade


Nighttime Temperatures by Month and Decade



Wonk Slide



Other Cool Stuff



Local Rainfall


Local Rainfall (mm)

• Month Max Min 50% 25% 75% • January 469 0.01 74 25 158 • February 500 <0.01 73 28 163 • March 330 <0.01 62 25 122 • April 253 <0.01 18 8.5 53 • May 136 <0.01 3.8 0.57 13 • June 49.0 <0.01 0.51 0.01 3.1 • July 20.8 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 • August 57.7 <0.01 0.01 0.01 1.21 • September 149 <0.01 0.25 0.01 6.4 • October 236 <0.01 11 1.0 24 • November 349 <0.01 28 4.3 62 • December 436 <0.01 51 19 121


Annual Rainfall 1883 – 2014


January Rainfall 1883 – 2014


March Rainfall 1883 – 2014


April Rainfall 1883 – 2014



Stream Flow


Arroyo Seco Stream Spreading Grounds


Arroyo Seco Upstream Facilities


Arroyo Seco Stream Flow 1910 - 2014

10M3/s = 160,000 gpm


February Arroyo Seco Stream Flow

There is no Difference in the Median Flow but a Large Difference In the Number of Extreme Flow Events


March Arroyo Seco Stream Flow

There is a Significant Difference in the Median Flow but a No Difference In the Number of Extreme Flow Events


September Arroyo Seco Stream Flow

There is a Large Significant Difference in the Median Flow but a No Extreme Flow Events


Arroyo Seco Stream Flow



Mt. Wilson


Mt. Wilson Daytime Temperatures 1948 - 2014


Mt. Wilson Nighttime Temperatures 1948 - 2014


Mt. Wilson Precipitation Per Year 1948 - 2014


Mt. Wilson Snow Days & Cumulative Depth Per Years1948 - 2014



Castaic Lake


Castaic Lake – Western Terminus of the State Wate Project

Earl Schmidt Filtration Plant – Castaic Rio Vista Treatment Plant – Saugus Joseph Jensen Treatment Plant - Sylmar


Castaic Lake – Western Terminus of the State Wate Project

The Intakes to these three treatment plants are in the Hyplimnion


Castaic Lake – Inlet Water Temperature



Water Quality


Past

71


Future

72


Regulations

73


Regulations

• Detention Times in Distribution Systems Will Rise

• Fewer Discharges • Drought Conditions • Water Conservation • Discharge Limitations

> NPDES Permit > MS4 Permittees > TMDLs

74


Water Quality

• Water Temperatures Will Rise • Both in our Source Waters & Distribution Systems • This will Stimulate Microbial Growth

> HPCs > AOBs > NOBs > Algae

• This will Accelerate the Formation of Disinfection By-Products and Nitrification

• The Loss of Disinfectants will Accelerate

75


Reactions

76

NH2Cl + 2H2O + 2e- →NH4+ + Cl- + 2OH-

Decay of Chloramines

DOC + NH2Cl → NH4+ + CHCl3

Formation of Chloroform


Water Quality

77

k = Ae-Ea/RT T = Temperature

[C] = [C0] – kt k = rate constant t = time

The Final Concentration of a THMs or Ammonia or Nitrite is a function of Time and Temperature



Drought


Local Sources of Water


San Francisco Bay Delta


Owen River Valley


Sea Water Intrusion


Old vs. New Water

83


Raymond Basin

84


Climate Change

the impact of climate change and drought on water...

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