climate change mitigation in the transport sector 24-25 may 2006 axel friedrich umweltbundesamt...
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Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector 24-25 May 2006
Axel FriedrichUmweltbundesamt (UBA)
Germany
Review of experience in Europe
GHG emissions from transport in the EEA-31 (all EEA members except Cyprus)between 1990 and 2002
Rise in Energy Consumption in Road Transport in old 15 EU Member States between 1995 and 2003
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
employed persons (in Tsd.) 22,89 38,68 57,81 73,26 76,60 85,43 89,35 91,44 92,20 91,69
employees in road transport(in Tsd.)
0,80 1,02 1,50 2,39 2,24 2,87 3,18 3,30 3,34 3,33
employees rail transport (in Tsd.)
0,22 0,23 0,48 0,68 0,61 0,64 0,64 0,63 0,62 0,61
CO2-Emissions (in Mill. t) -2,98 -5,27 -7,05 -8,73 -8,72 -8,76 -8,88 -9,02 -9,15 -9,29
expenses for fuels (in bill. €)
-0,46 -0,81 -1,07 -1,32 -1,34 -1,35 -1,37 -1,39 -1,41 -1,43
expenses for other transport means (in bill.. €)
0,17 0,26 0,34 0,42 0,41 0,41 0,41 0,41 0,42 0,42
source: Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS), Osnabrück
Effects of the Eco Tax on Fuels between 2000 und 2010 (in absolut deviations compared w/o eco Tax)
Jahr
Entwicklung des Modal Split in Berlin (Binnenverkehr)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ÖV mot. IV (+ Mitf.)
Rad Fuß
Ver
keh
rsau
ftei
lun
g (
Fah
rten
un
d W
ege
in %
)
1992
1998
2015 (Sz. 3)
Modal Split Development in Berlin (Internal Traffic)
Bicycle
Development Passenger TransportS-Bahn Berlin
M.ML 1 BB (NO)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
CO
2 (
g/k
m)
Petrol
Diesel
All fuels
Objectives
Reducing CO2 emissions (1)
Assessment of the Directive’s effectiveness
Source: ADAC
CO2 emissions of newly registered Vehicle in the EU
Net-costs and cost efficiency (benefit cost ratio) to society (excluding taxes, including fuel savings) for reaching 140g/km between
2002 and 2008 (ACEA, JAMA, KAMA)
Source:Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (calculations based on IEEP, 2005) 2006
Source: Lang,FEV Motorentechnik 2004
Assessment of Fuel consumption,
Potential and Cost of Hybrid Concepts
Correlation between Fuel Prices and
Transport Fuel Intensity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Weighted Average Fuel Prices ('90 PPP US$)
Carb
on
Em
issio
ns
fro
m P
assen
ger
Tra
nsp
ort
(g
/$)
Denmark
Sweden
w. Germany
Italy
France
U.K.
Japan
U.S.
Canada
Australia
Netherlands
European Countries
Australia
U.S.
Canada
Japan
Source: Lee Schipper
Average Fuel Prices in 2003 vs. Transport Energy Intensity of old EU15 Member States
(in grams of road transport fuel per € of GDP)
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20
road fuel price in 2003 (€/litre))
roa
d f
ue
l u
se
(g
/€)
Source: Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism data, T&E analysis
Differentiation of annual circulation Tax for private Cars in the United Kingdom
New Car Average CO2 Emissions in the United Kingdom
Source: Driver Vehicle Licensing Agency, UK
CO2 Abatement Cost per tonne, diesel vehicle, European Driving Assumptions
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
Possible CO2 Reduction HDVBASE: EURO 3 / 2003
Combustion+SCR: - 3 bis - 4%
2-step Turbo- Charging: - 2%
Variable Valve Control: - 1 bis - 4%
Friction Reduction: - 3 bis –4%
Side components: - 2%
Starter/Generator: - 1%
Sum:Sum: Diesel Diesel PropulsionPropulsion Potential: - 12% Potential: - 12%
η > 44 %
Energy efficiency per transport unit and mode with passenger transport
Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions of public transport
compared to car transport
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
MegaJoule/pkm CO2/pkm
car
bus, light rail
rail
Scope: Germany 2005Source: TREMOD
Energy efficiency per transport unit and mode with Freight Transport
Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions of road freight
compared to rail and inland waterways
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
MegaJoule/tkm CO2/tkm
road
rail
inland shipping
Source: TREMOD Scope: Germany 2005
Implementation of the EU Biofuels Directive
As in electricity generation, a framework is set by Community legislation: the biofuels directive[1], which sets as reference values a 2% market share for bio fuels in 2005 and 5.75% share in 2010.The 2005 reference value was not be achieved. There is substantial variation in Member States’ efforts; if all Member States achieve the targets they have set, biofuels will attain a share of only 1.4%.
[1] Directive 2003/30/EC of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport, O.J. L123, 17/05/2003
Source: COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2005
Biomass action plan
Implementation of the EU Biofuels Directive
In accordance with the biofuels directive, the Commission will bring forward a report in 2006 on the directive’s implementation, with a view to a possible revision. It will address the issues of:· national targets for the market share of biofuels; · using biofuels obligations; requiring that, through a system of certificates, only biofuels whose cultivation complies with minimum sustainability standards will count towards the targets.
Source: COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2005Biomass action plan
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