climate change and water - chinese

8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese

1/214

IPCC


2/214


3/214

WMO UNEP

W

20086

IPCC


4/214


5/214

1.

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3.1

1.3.2

1.4

2.

2.1

2.1.1 ()

2.1.2

2.1.3

2.1.4

2.1.5

2.1.6

2.1.7

2.2 2.2.1

2.2.2

2.2.3

2.3

2.3.1 ()

2.3.2

2.3.3

2.3.4

2.3.5

2.3.6

2.3.7

3.

3.1

3.1.1

3.1.2

3.2

3.2.1

3.2.2


6/214

iv

3.2.3 44

3.2.4 44

3.2.5 45

3.2.6 45

3.2.7 47

3.2.8 47

3.3 484. 53

4.1 55

4.1.1 55

4.1.2 55

4.1.3 55

4.2 59

4.2.1 59

4.2.2 60

4.2.3 60

4.2.4 63

4.3 674.3.1 67

4.3.2 69

4.3.3 69

4.3.4 69

4.4 69

4.4.1 69

4.4.2 69

4.4.3 70

4.4.4 71

4.5 73

4.5.1 73

4.5.2 73

4.5.3 74

4.6 74

4.6.1 74

4.6.2 75

5. 77

5.1 79

5.1.1 79

5.1.2 79

5.1.3 81

5.1.4 85

5.2 85

5.2.1 85

5.2.2 85

5.2.3 87

5.2.4 88

5.3 90

5.3.1 90


7/214

5.3.2

5.3.3

5.3.4

5.4

5.4.1

5.4.2

5.4.3 5.4.4

5.5

5.5.1

5.5.2

5.5.3

5.5.4

5.6

5.6.1

5.6.2

5.6.3

5.7 5.7.1

5.7.2

5.7.3

5.7.4

5.8

5.8.1

5.8.2

5.8.3

6.

6.1

6.2

6.2.1 (CCS)

6.2.2

6.2.3

6.2.4

6.2.5

6.2.6

6.2.7

6.2.8 ()

6.2.9 ()

6.2.10

6.2.11

6.2.12

6.2.13

6.3

6.3.1

6.3.2

6.3.3

6.3.4


8/214

vi

6.3.5 123

6.3.6 124

6.3.7 124

6.4 124

7. 125

7.1 127

7.2 1287.3 130

7.4 130

8. 133

8.1 135

8.2 135

8.2.1 135

8.2.2 136

8.3 136

139

1: 165

2: 1673: 183

4: 185

5: 187

6: 191

193


9/214

(IPCC)

IPCC

(WCP-

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200211

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IPCC

IPCC


10/214

viii

Norah Pritchard Clair Hanson

Terry Prowse

Maurice RoosBill Girling

Marilyn Anderson Nancy Boston

2008623


11/214

Bryson Bates(), Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz()()

Nigel ArnellVirginia Burkett()Petra Dll()Daniel Gwary()C

Hanson()BertJan HeijBlanca Elena Jimnez()Georg Kaser()A

KitohSari KovatsPushpam KumarChristopher H.D. Magadza

Daniel MartinoLuis Jos Mata/Mahmoud Medany

Kathleen Miller()Taikan Oki()Balgis Osman()Jean Palutikof()T

Prowse()Roger Pulwarty(/)Jouni Risnen()James Renw

)Francesco Nicola Tubiello(//)Richard Wood(

()

Julie Arblaster()Richard Betts()Aiguo Dai()Christopher Milly()L

Mortsch()Leonard Nurse()Richard Payne()Iwona Pinkswar(

Tom Wilbanks()

IPCCIPCCR.K.


12/214


13/214


14/214


15/214

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17/214

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18/214


19/214

6 http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session21.htm.

1.1

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21/214

1.1:,WaterGAP(Alcamo,2003a)[WGII F3.2]

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)[WGII 3.2] 40%

(Fischer,2006)1960,

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(1.2)

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22/214

10

1.2:SRES(Nakienovi

Swart,2000)[WGII2.5]

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23/214

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24/214


25/214

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26/214


27/214

2.1

(

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[W

3.3,7.5.2,8.2.1,8.2.59.5.4WGII 3.13.2]

2.1.1 ()

(GHCNPeterso

Vose1997)(PREC/LC

2002)(GPCPA

2003) (GPCCB

2005)(CRUMitche

Jones2005)203085

3040

30(2.1)25

1900195010

1970

[WGI 3.3.2.1]

19012005GHCN

(2.2)19512005

502070

[WGI 3.3.2.1]

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(

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(

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20

50

50

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[WGI 3.3]

()

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28/214

16

1901

(5.1)

1979

(

2.1.7)1901

200520%

1979

1975[WGI 3.3.2.2]

(

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[WGI 9.5.4]

(95

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(2.4)

(Peterson2002;Griffiths2003Herath

Ratnayake2004)

(KleinTank

Knnen2003Kunkel2003Groisman

2004 HaylockGoodess2004)

(Groisman2004Haylock Goodess2004)

5[WGI 3.8.2.2]

(

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(

2.119611990,19002005

(%)

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[WGI3.15]

1961-1990(%)

GHCN

GHCN

PREC/L

GPCP

VASClimOGPCC

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3GPCC

2.2GHCN19002005

(,19812000)

GHCNPREC/LGPCPGPCCCRU,

[WGI3.12]

()

[WGI 3.3.2.2]


29/214

)20

[WGI SPM9.5.4,

10.3.6, FAQ10.1]

1970

(SST)

1970

1901-2005

1979-2005

%/

%/

2.3GHCN1961199019012005(,%)1979

2005(,%)(WGI3.13)


30/214

18

1970

[WGI SPM]

19882004

1.2%0.3%

2.419012003(95)(%)

,(%,1961199022.5%)(Alexander

,2006)/,(+)()(

Groisman,2005)[WGI3.39]

SST

[WGI3.4.2 9.5.4]

1951-2003

%/


31/214

2.1.2

()

75%

(Stern2007)[WGII 3.4.1]

2.5[WGI 4]

2.1.2.1

19662005

1112

20805%

40[WGI

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19012002

7%,

15%20

0.31956199031

21

1980

3C

[WGI 4.79]

150

5.81.6

6.51.2

(Duguay2003)

[WGI 4.3]

2.1.2.2

106

106

106

103/

106

(A) 65

(B)

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[WGI FAQ 4.1]

[W

4.5.24.6.2.2.1]

(2.

1960/611989/901365)/(0.370.16/(SLE

1990/912003/0428079G

(0.770.22 /SLE)20

[WGI 4.5, 4.49.5]


32/214

20

()

(LIA)

[WGII 1.3.1.11.2]

2.1.3

1920

201.70.5

/196120031.80.5

/199320033.10.7

/19932003

1993

2003

[WGI 5.ES]

19932003(1.60.5

/)(0.770.22/)

(0.210.07/)(0.210.35/)

2.80.7/

19612003

1993/

20

[WGI SPM5.59.5.2]

1975

(WoodworthBlackman2004)[WGII 1.3.3]

2.1.4

10

103

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2.6(a)(b)(DyurgerovMeier,2005)

,

,[WGI 4.5.2,4.15]


33/214

10. ,

/,,

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[WGI 3.3.3]

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( P e t e r s o n 1 9 9 5 G o l u b e v

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(BrutsaertParlange1998)

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[WGI 3.3.33.2]

2.1.4.2

20

(Golubev

2001)

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2070

[WGI 3.3.3]

CO2

()

[WGI 9.5.4]

(Moonen2002Menzel2003Genovese2005Semenov2006)

(Robeson2002FengHu2004)[WGII

1.3.6.1]

2.1.5

[W

3.3.4] 600Rob

(2000) (

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(Robock2005)

(PDSI)PDSI3.1.2.4

[WGI 3.13.3.4]

2.1.6

20

(

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(DaiTrenbe

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[WGI 3.3.49.19.5.1WGII 1.3.2]

(

)(

)

(Milly2005

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ENSONAOPNA

11(Labat2004)

20 1

(Labat2004;Legates2005)


34/214

22

Gedney(2006)20

CO2(

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[WGII 1.3.2]

(

),(

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LindstromBergstrom2004)

19362000

12

(Hodgkins2003)

(Hodgkins 2005)[WGII

1.3.2]

2.1.7

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(SOI)()

()

()

[WGI 3.6.1]

SOI-(ENSO)ENSO

(Trenberth

Caron2000)ENSO

ENSO

-(PNA)-(PSA)

ENSO

(PDO IPO)

20

1976/77

(Trenberth1990)

(TrenberthStepaniak2001)

ENSO[WGI 3.6.2 3.6.3]

(NA MSAMQuadrelli

Wallace2004Trenberth2005)NAM

(NAO)

NAO

NAO()()(Hurrel

2003)NAM

NAO

()NAO

(Cook2002Jones2003a)

2060

2090NAO

NAONAM

[WGI 3.6.49.ES]

(SAM)

SAM

(Sinclair1997)

(Noone

Simmonds2002)SAM(Genthon

2003)(SilvestriVera2003)

SAM

[WGI 3.6.59.5.3.3]

()

SST70

11. ,ENSO-,NAO,PNA-2.1.7


35/214

(AMOKerr2000)19301960

1905192519701990

(SchlesingerRamankutty,1994)1990

AMOAMO

(DelworthMann

2000Latif2001SuttonHodson2003;Knight

2005)AMO

,ENSO

(Enfield2001McCabe2004;Shabbar

Skinner,2004)

(Goldenberg2001)AMO

(VenegasMysak2000Goldenberg

2001;SuttonHodson2005Trenberth

Shea2006)[WGI 3.6.6]

/

[WGI 7.27

(

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[WGI 67.2]

[WGI 7.28.2]

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[WGI 7.2]

[WGI 8.6]

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(MOC),

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MOC

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36/214

24

)

MOC

(AOGCM)

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21

[WGI 10.3.4]

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[WGI 7.3]

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[WGI 10.5.4.3]

[WGI 10.3.2.310.5.4.3]

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37/214

AR4 (2.1

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AR4

[WGI 8.2.18.2.28.5.28.5.310.2.1]

[WGII 3.3.1]

[WGII 3.3.1]

[WGII 3.3.1 3.4]

2.3.1 ()

2.3.1.1

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(

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[WGI 10.3.2]

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21

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[WGI 8.610.ES10.3

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2.8)15AOGCM

A2

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38/214

26

30%

[WGI 10.3.6]

(2.1.1)

[WGI 10.3.6]

21

(2.9)

2.9()

[WGI 10.3.6.1]

(2.9)

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(

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[WGI 10.3.6FAQ10.1]

[WGI SPM]

2.3.2

[WGI SPM

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2.3.2.1

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[WGI 10.3.3.211]

IPCC

2120%

35%

30

A1B2080-2099 12 2 A1B2080-2099 6 8

2.7:15122()68()(/)SRES A1B,208

209919801999

[WGI10.9]


39/214

10%

15%;

15%25%50%

208030%

50%[WGII 15.3.4]

[WGII 15.4.1.2]

a) b)

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(WGI10.12)


40/214

28

2.3.2.2

21

11

205060%(Schneeberger

2003)7GCMCO2

(Bradley2004)

[WGI 10.7.4.210.1] 21

0.070.17

(SLE)0.15

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2.3.3

20(19801999

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SRES

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2003(1.80.5/)

70%75%

GCM

21

[SYR3.2.1WGI SPM10.6.5TS 5.2]

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[WGI SPMWGII 19.3]

2.9A1B,9

2080209919801999

()()(

)(),9

5

[WGI10.18]


41/214

2.3.4

(Trenberth2003)[WGI 10.9

10.12WGII 3.23.3.1] [WGI10.12]

[WGI

10.3.2.3,10.8]

[WGII 3.4.2]

CO2

CO2

()(Gedney2006

)CO2

CO2

(Rosenberg2003Gerten2004Gordon

Famiglietti2004Betts2007)

(Betts1997Kergoat2002)

CO2

CO2CO

2

5%(Leipprand

Gerten2006Betts2007)[WGII 3.4.1]

2.3.5

(

)

(2.8b)

(2.3.2)

[W

10.3.2.3]

2.3.6

(W

10.3.2.3)(WGII 3.4)

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(

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20%1/

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[WGI 10.3.2.3]

2.2.1CO2

[WGI 7.2]

2.1020902099

19801999S

A1B12

()

(

(2.1.6)

[WGII 3.4.1]


42/214

30

21

[WGII 3.4.1]

(

)

[WGII 3.4.1]

[WGI

3.4.1]

2.10209020991980199912

66%,90%(Milly,2005)(

SYR3.5WGII3.4)


43/214

2.3.7

/(NAM/

NAO)(SAM)

[WGI TS10.3.5.610.3.6.4]

SST

[WGI SPM10.3.6.3]

(ENSO)

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[WGI TS10.3.5.310.3.5.4]

()(

[WGI 10.3.5.1]


44/214


45/214

3


46/214


47/214

3.1

3.1.1

3.1.1.1

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(Bindoff2007)

(Larsen2005)

()

(Jansson2003)

[WGI 4.6.2; WGII 1.3.1.1]

(LIA)

(

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[WGII

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(Watson

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,

,

(Rivera2005)[WGII

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3.1.1.2

65

12

[WGII 1.3.1.1]

(YoshikawaHinzman2003)(5.12)(Smith2005)

(Beaulie

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3.1.2

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20

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[WGII 1.3.2.1]

(Tao 2

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2004 )

(Milly 2005 ) Lab

(2004)201C

4%

(Leg

2005)Gedney(2006)

CO2CO2

(Douglas2000)[WGII 1.3.2.1]

2


48/214

36

(Chen2002)

(Petheram2001)[WGII 1.3.2.1]

[WGII 3.210.4.2]

(2003)

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[WGII 1.3.2, 3.2]

()

()(

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()

(Smith

2005)(12)

(Mueller2003)Le Treut

(2007)[WGII 1.3.2.1]

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[WGII 1.3.2] ,

(

)[WGII 1.3.4]

, [WGII

1.3.2][WGII Box 4.1]

,

()[WGII

3.2]

(3.1)

2.1.2Le Treut (2007)

[WGII 1.3.4.41.21.6]

1960

0.2C2.0C1900

(EdwardAlbertKivuVicto

riaTanganyikaMalawi)(

)0.2C0.7C

2023

[WGII 1.3.2.3]

(Karst-Riddoch2005)

(

)(Blais200

)[WGII 1.3.2.3]

( 3.1

WGII

SM1.3)

(Sommaruga-Wograth 1997Rogora

2003)pH

(PsennerSchmidt1992)

11%13%(Vesely

2003)

(Bodaly1993)

27

[WGII 1.3.2.3

[WGII 3.2]

12


49/214

3.1.2.3

(GLOF 5.4)

/

(

), (/

()

/(

)

[WGII 3.4.3]

(KronBerz2007

)

[WGII 3.2]

20

[WGI SPM-2]

10(1996-2005)

19501980

(Kron

Berz2007)

1.4(WDR20032004)

199870%(

2025%)(Mirza2003ClarkeKing2

)[WGII 3.2]

(Mills2005)

(Huntington2006)[WGII 3.4.3]

[WGI SPM3.8,

Milly(2002)

(>100)Kundzewicz(2005)(27

(31 )

195137

[WGII 1.3.2.2]

/ 5%2590%

19351999 Ob, L

Yenisey, Mackenzie

12 19362000

(0.51%)

29%

18471996

19982004

0.11.5C 40 (100)

()0.20.7C 100 (6)

100

(8)

1020 (88)

3.1//[WGII1.3]


50/214

38

3.1.2.4

()

()

()(

)

[WGII 3.4.3]

2070

2070

[WGI SPM-2]

Palmer(PDSI)(Dai

2004b)[WGII 3.3.4]

[WGI 3.ES, 3.3.4]

Dai(2004b)PDSI20

50

(

3.1)2070

2060 90 1974

199819482002

20-30

20

70(

PDSI3.0)(~12%30%)

ENSO80

(Dai

2004b)[WGI 3.3.4]

[WGII 11.2.1] [WGII

14.2.1](Nicholson2005)

[WGII 3.2]

2003

(Schr2004)300

30%(Ciais2005)

()

(BenistonDiaz,2004Zebisch,2005)

(Fink2004)[WGII 12.6.1]

3.2

3.2.1

(

)

,

(,

)[WGII 3.3.1]

2.3

3.2.1.1

(

)

[WGII 15.4.1]


51/214

13()PDSI

3.119002002Palmer(PDSI)()P

()

()131900

()()

)

19002002PDSI67%

(Dai2004b)[WGI FAQ 3.2]


52/214

40

[WGII 3.4.2]

(3.2)

(2%,

21509%ECHAM4

SRES A2DllFlrke, 2005)

(ECHAM4HadCM3 GCM

SRES A2B214)

215070%

215030%

3.2(19611990)2150(20412070)

30WGHM(ECHAM4

HadCM3SRES A2B2)(DllFlrke2005)[WGII3.5]

14 I

1961-90

1961-90

*1961-90


53/214

[WGII 3.4.2]

(EckhardtUlbrich2003

Brouyere

2004)

(Ogallala)

20%2.5C

(Rosenberg1999)[WGII 14.4]

[WGII 3.4.2]

3.2.1.2

2.3.121

[WGI 10.3.5, 10.3.6; WGII3.4.3] 3.2

,PalmerRisnen(2002)

,

,CO2

()

(PalmerRisnen2002)

Milly(2002)CO2

1615

()

25

(Zhang2005)[WGII 3.4.3]

,2C,

23%29%(Mirza2

)[WGII 3.4.3]

a

SRES

21

[4.4, 5.4]

[3.4]

[8.2]

[7.4]

/

a 3.7

3.221

21

IPCC SRES[WGISPM-2WGIISPM-2]


54/214

42

15

[WGII 3.4.3]

()

(Reynard2004)[WGII 3.4.3]

3.2.1.3

[WGI SPM]

[WGI 10.ES]

SRES A22190

10302

6(Burke2006)[WGI 10.3.6; WGII 3.4.3

()

Douville2002Christensen2007)

[WGII 3.4.3] 3.3

2170

15()()16 1%10%

3.319611990(Lehner2005)[WGII

3.6]


55/214

16

10(Lehner,2005)[WGII

3.4.3]

3.2

,

(Barnett2005),

,

(Ramrez2001 5.5),

,

(Barnett2005)[WGII3.4.3]

3.2.1.4

(Hall2002Kumagai

2003)(

2001)

[WGII 3.ES]

3C4C

(Nicholls1999)

/

[WGII 4.4.8, 14.4.1]

( )(Leemans

Kleidon2002)(Mimikou

2000Neff 2000 Bouraoui 2004

)

()

[WGII 3.4.4]

[WGII 3.4.4,

14.4.1] ()

[W

3.4.2]

[WGII 3.4.4]

2050-

13%19%(Pittock2003)

[W

11.4]

[WGII 3.4.4]

[WGII 3.4.2]

0.1

103628(Bobba2

)

(Chen2004)[W

3.4.2]

3.2.1.5

[WGII 3.4.

[WGII 3

14.4.1]

[WGII 3.4.5]

[WGII 3.4.5]

[WGII 3.4.5]

3.2.2

(2003)

()


56/214

44

(IWRM)17(2002

2004a2006)

[WGII 3.3.2]

3.2.3

2.1.62.3.1

3.2.1

(2000)

/

(Miller1997)[WGII 3.5]

(Magrin 2005 ) [WGII

13.2.4]

5060

(Kharkina2004)

[WGII3.5]

(MillerYates2006

[WGII 3.5.1]

3.2.4

/

(Dll,2002Dll2003)

IPCC SRES A2B2

2020

+2%+15%

6%+5%(Dll,2002Dll2003)

21201%3%

21702%7%

B2[WGII 3.5.1]

,

,25%

15%

(EheartTornil1999)

CO2[WGII 3.5.1]

(

)

21505%(Mote

1999Downing2003)

25C

111(

2%)(Protopapas2000)[WGII 3.5.1]

17 IWRM1992 (1)

(2) (3)

(4)


57/214

3.2.5

, (Vrsmarty,2000

Alcamo , 2003a,b,2007 Oki , 2003

Arnell,2004),

2150IPCC SRES

(Arnell2004)

(3.3)2150

SRESA2

A1B1,,

(OkiKanae,2006

)

(Arnell2004)

[WGII 3.5.1]

(

)(Alcamo 2007)

()

215020%29%

62%76%

(SRESA2B2)

(Alcamo2007)[WGII 3.5.1]

3.2.6

()

()

/

[WGII 3.5.1]

(

2000)

(Barnett2005)

2150

5%12%

(Middelkoop2001)

2150

(KrysanovaWechsung2002)

(Krysanova2005)[WGII 3.5.1]

()

()(Kirshen2005a)

[WGII 3.5.1]

21

16%30%21

9030%45%

(

)2%(C

2050(10)

Arnell (2004) Alcamo (2007)

1995: 1.4 1.6

2050: A2 4.45.7 6.46.9

2050: B2 2.84.0 4.95.2

3.32050(1,000 m3/)

[WGII3.2]


58/214

46

2001)[WGII 3.5.1]

1.00/m30.60/m3

(ZhouTol2005)0.02

/m3

(FAO2003)

(4.4.4

)[WGII 3.5.1]

(Mileti1999 Pielke

Downton 2000 Changnon 2005 )

(Schiermeier2006)[WGII 3.5.2]

20

CO2(Schreider

2000)[WGII 3.5.2]

ChoiFisher(2003)

13.5%21.5%

( )

13.5%

140%

82%

89%[WGII 3.5.2]

IS92a(Kirshen

2005b)

2100

[WGII 3.5.2]

2180

SRES (Hal

2005)

218050

B1

10B215

B1B2

A12150

1502180210(Evan

2004Hall2005)[WGII 3.5.2]

1921502634(Middelkoop2001)[WGII 3.5.1]

2170 20

15%30%(IS92a)

19%( ) 100%(

(Lehner 2005)

20%50%

10%()39%(Lehne

2005)(20%)21

707%12%[WGII 3.5.1


59/214

(Lofgren2002)CGCM1

2C

25%35%2002

2.43.5 (Buttle2004

)HadCM218

(+3%)2500

2C

1%17%(LOSLR2006)[WGII 3.5.1]

3.2.7

3.4

(IWRM17)

(GWP2002E

Lemos2006)[WGII 3.7]

3.2.8

(Dll2003Arnell,2004

(Prudhomme 2003

(Kaspar2003)

18 1

3.4,1Bobba(2000

2Barnet(2004)3DllFlrke(2005)4Mirza(2003)5Lehner(2005)6Kistemann(2

),7PorterSemenov(2005),2.10(19801999)20902099SRESA1B

(%)(Milly2005)()()[WGII3.8SYR3.5]

2020

2070

25%

2050

70%

2040-2080

0.1

25

10

25%


60/214

48

3.4

(Kay2006a)

GCM

PrudhommeDavies(2006)

[WGII 3.3.1]

(Arnell(2004)Jasper(2004)),

[WGII 3.3.1]

GCM

[WGII 3.3.1]

[WGII 3.3.1]

GCM

GCM

()[WGI TAR

10]

(Diaz- NietoWilby2005)

(Wilby

Harris2006)

[WGII 3.3.1]

(Changnon 2005 Schlenker 2005

Young2005)[WGII 3.5]

[WGII 3.6.1]

[WGI

12.2.2]

3.4

(3.5)[WGII 3.6.1]

[WGII 13.5.1.3]

[WGII 9.6.2.1, 9.5.19.2]

[WGII 3.2, 3.6.5, 17.2.2]

(Klijn2001Richardson2002)

(ArnellDelaney2006

) [WGI

3.6.5, 17.2.2]

()

3.3


61/214

()

3.5

3.5

[WGII 17.2, 18.1, 18.5, 20.3, 20.8]

[WGII 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 17.3]

[WGII 17.4.2]

(a).

[WGII 3.6.4]

(b).

[WGII 3.6.4]

(c).

(d).

(

2004 Naess 2005 CrabbRobin2006)

[WGII 3.6.4]

(e).

[WGII 17.4.2.4]

(Wilby2006)

(Beuhler2

SimonovicLi2003)

(ArnellDelaney200

(Dessai2005)

(J

Page2001)

(Wilb

Harris2006)[WGII 3.6.4]

(Stakhiv1998)

()

3.4()[WGII3.5]


62/214

50

/

WGII 9.5, 9.2

/

WGII 10.5,

10.8

WGII 10.5.2

/

WGII 11.2,

11.2, 11.2;

5.2

WGII 12.5.1

WGII 13.2.5.3,

13.2, 13.5.1

/ WGII 14.2.4

/ WGII 14.5.1

2.5

WGII 15.6.2

/

WGII 15.2.2.2

WGII 16.4.1

16.5

3.5


63/214

(

Beuhler2003)

(Klijn2004Olsen2006

)[WGII 3.6.4]

3.3.1

(IWRM17)

(Moench2003)

(2005)

(3.6)[WGII 3.6.1

14.2]

()

3.6(PulwartyMelis2001)[WGII3.4]


64/214


65/214

4


66/214


67/214

4.1

4.1.1

(Burkett2005)

WGI AR43

[WGI3.14]19002005

[WGI 3.3.5]

4.1.2

IPCCSRESB1A1A220300.5C2CB1

(GCM)

[WGI10.810.12]

[WGI 10.3.6.1]

[WGI 10.18]

WGI AR4 21(2)

[WGII 1.3,4.2] Root(2003)143

2080%

[WGII 1.4.1]

(

)

(RootSchneider2Burkett2005)[WGII 1.3.5.54.2.2

(Pounds2006)[W4.1]

[W9.1]

[WGII 13.4.1]

(

2005b)[WGII 3.5.1]

4.1.3

4.1.3.1

()

(

)

[WGII TAR 4.3.7]

2[WGI T


68/214

56

SPM]

[WGII 4.4.8]

[WGI1011]

[CCB 4.4]

20C

[CCB 6.2] [WGII 4.2.2] (

)[RICC 2.3.6]

()

[CCB 6.7]

(Declerck2005)IPCC AR4GCM

[WGI 11.3.3.2]

(lvarez Cobelas2005)[WGII 12.4.6]

4.1.3.2

(

)

()

(Keddy2000)[WGII 4.4.8]

(Gorham1991)

[WGII TAR 5.8.3]

[WGII TAR 5.ES]

(WinterWoo1990)

(Woo1993)[WGII TAR 5.8.2.1] [WGII TAR5.8.4]

[WGII 4.4.8]

()

[WGII 4.4.8] TAR( )[WGII TAR 5.8.5] AR4(

)[WGII 4.4.84.4.10

[WGII 4.4.8

[WGII TAR 5.8.4]

[WGII 1.3]

(Hinzman2005Walsh2005)


69/214

(YoshikawaHinzman2003)(GavrilievEfremov2003)[WGI 4.7.2.3]

[WGII 15.4.1.3]

(ColemanHuh2004)[WGII 15.6.2]

(Keddy2000Burkettkusler2000)

(Bauder2005)

(ChauhanGopal2001)[WGII 4.4.8]

4.1.3.3

[WGII 6.4.1.3]

[WGII 6.4.1.4]

[WGI 5.5.2]

(

)

(Nilsson2005

)

2,000210(Jiongxin2003)

(Syvistki2005)21[WGII 6.4]

Milly(2005)50100

[WGII 6.3.22.10]

1950(Williams1)(Krauss200050(Ross2000)(SaintilanWilliams1999[WGII 6.4

[W6.4.1.39.4.410.4.111.4.2]

(Li2004Syvitski2005Eri2006)[WGII 6.2.36.4.1]

197820001,565

(Barras2003)[WGII 6.4.1]

(Scavia2002)

(Moore1997)

(Justic2005)[W6.4.1.3]

4.1.3.4

(Williams,2003Pound


70/214

58

Puschendorf,2004Andreone2005Pounds2006),[WGII 4.4.7]

,

[WGII 1.3.5.2,4.4.7,9.4.5]

[WGII 1.3.2]1949200474%(Knowles2006)2070

(BrownBraaten1998)

(Groisman2004)195041(SWE)1530%

(Mote2005)2002194814(Stewart2005)[WGII14.2.1]

(Keller2005

Monson2006) (Krner,1999)(Keller2005)

(Inouye2000)

[WGII 4.4.7] 1C

[WGII 12.4.3]

[WGII1.3.1,3.2,3.4.3]

4.1.3.5

[WGII45.1.213.4]40%(RowellMoore2000)GCM100678(20%)1212(5%)[WGI 11.6.3.2]

[WGII 13.4.2]

()

[WGII 4.4.5]

[WGII 4.4.34.4.5]

[WGII 4.4.3

(Tuchman2003)

[WGII 4.4.10]

50%10%(Fay2003a)[WGII 4.4.3]


71/214

4.2.1

[WGII 5.2.1]

(FAO2003)[WGII 5.2.2]

[WGII5.2.25.25.3]

[WGII 5.2.2]

4.2.1.1

80%

(FAO2003)[WGII 5.4.1.2]

(FAO2003)

,

18%,10,,

2319(FAO,2003)

(Rosenzweig2002)[WGII 5.4.2.1]

4.2

191.3()5.1.3()5.2.3

(FAO2003)[WGII 5.35.6.5]

[WGII 32015 [WGII 5.6.5]

(Rosenzweig2002)[W5.6.5]

GCM[W5.4.1.2]

()

(2.10)4.1

[WGII 5.3.1]

4.2.1.2

40

2(FAO2003)[WGII 4.4.55.1.1,5.

,

,(1LinigerWeingartner,1998) [LULU2.5.1.1.4WGII 4.1.1]

,

(Harding

Lean,1996),,(Kramer,1PattanayakKramer, 2000) [LULU2.5.1.1.6]

(Harding1992Bl1994)


72/214

60

(Chan1986GashShuttleworth1991Meher-Homji1992)[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.6]

(KirschbaumFischlin1996Sala2000Gitay2001)

(Scheffer,2001Sankaran,2005)[WGII4.1, 4.4.5]

[WGII 4.2] 210025%()

[WGII 4.ES4.4.8]

[WGII 9.2.1.4]

4.2.2

4.2.2.1

(Easterling2003)[WGII 1.3.6]

[WGII 1.3.61.3.95.2]

4.2.2.2

C3()

[WGII TAR 5.3.3.1]

(

)

[WGII TAR 5.3.3.1]

TAR

(Thomas2003Bake2004Caldwell2005)

450ppm0.8C1.5C[WGI5.4.1.2]

[WGII 5.4.15.8.2]

4.2.3

21

(FAO2003)


73/214

[WGII 5.8.1]

(

)

[WGII 5.ES]90%21 [WGI SPM],

[WGI 11.3,11.4,11.7]

[WGII 5.4.15.4.2]

2100 [WGII 3

]

(4.1b)(

4.1b)[WGII 5.3.1]

SI>5 SI>0 SI>85 SI>70 SI>55SI>40 SI>40SI25

4.1(a)()(Fischeretal.2002b)SI=[WG

5.1a];(b)(19801999)20902099[SYR3.5]

[WGII 5.3.2.2]

4.2.3.1

3C)

(12C)

[WGII 5.ES]

[WGII 5.ES]

TAR


74/214

62

205014%83%(2005a, b)

[WGII 3.5.1]

[WGII 5.8.2]

4.2.3.2

[WGII 5.4.3.1]

(ENSO)ENSO

[WGII 5.4.3.1] WGI TARENSO

WGI AR4ENSO[WGI TAR SPMWGI 10.3.5.4]

(4.1)(

)[WGII 5.4.3.2]

[WGI5.4.3.2]

4.2.3.3

Rosenzweig(2002)(

)203030 /

[WGII 5.4.2.1]

Dll(2002)

2070()5%8%

(+15%)[WGII 5.4.2.1]

Fischer(2006)208020%

Fischer(2006)Arnell(2004)(

)

(Abou-Hadid2003

)(Tao2003a)/[WGII 5.4.2.1]

(

)

2030(Reilly2003Thomson2005a)

[WGII 3.5.1]

FAO203014%(Bruinsma2003)

20300%6%20500%10%[WGII3.5.1]


75/214

pH

4.1

[WGII 5.4.6.1]

[WGII 5.4.6.1]

4.2.4

(

)

()

[W3.5.1]

/

/(

[WGII 5.5]

4.2.4.1

4.1 [WGII5.3]

( PDRGDP10%1,000(MRC2003)250(HortleBush2003)30%

(

)

(Hoanh2004)3541%16%19%(196119902010203820702099)17%24%

26%29%()(2004b)

2025()(Wassmann2004)


76/214

64

//()

4.2

[WGII 5.4.7]

[WGII 5.5.1]

[WGII 5.5.1]

4.2: [WGII5.5]

( Ellis1995)(Ndikumana2000HendyMorton2001Oba2001McPeakBarrett2001Morton2006)

/

(

)

[WGII 5.5.1]

[WGII 5.8.1]


77/214

/

[WGII 5.1.1]

4.2.4.2

(),

()()[WGII 5.5]

[WGII 5.4.7]

2020

(EheartTornil1999)[WGII 3.5.1]

(Huffaker2005

)[WGII 3.5.1]

(

)(

4.3)

4.2.4.3

)

()

()

[WGII 5.6.5]

[WGII 5.6.5]

[WGII

4.3:[WGII5.6]

()

(Drennen1993Kishor19Pilon-Smits1995Cheikh2000)

(SinclairPurcell2005)


78/214

66

[WGII 5.6.5]

4.2.4.4

(Lipp2001Jimnez,2003Maya2003WHO2004)

(Magadza2000Kashyap2004Pachauri2004)

(WHO/UNICEF2000)[WGII 3.4.4]

10%()

[WGII 8.2.5]

[WGII 3.4.4]

4.2.4.5

[WGII 5.7]

[LULUCF 4.5.1]

(Mills1994)

(Brklacich1997)[WGII TAR15.2.3.1]

(Conde1997)[WGII TAR 14.2.2.1]

[WGII TAR 12.5.6]

20,00050,000

[WGII TAR 10.2.1.2]

(

)

[WGITAR 10.2.1.2]

70%(FAO2006)

[WGII TAR 11.2.4.4]

14

[WGII TAR 11.2.3.2]

4.2.4.6


79/214

()

[WGIII 8.58.9]

/

()

[WGIII 12.1.412.1.4]

(RosenzweigTubiello2007)[WGII5.4.2WGIII 8.5]

4.3.1

[WGII 8.1.1]

4.24.4[WGII 8.4.2.3]

50

20155(MDG)

4.3

[WGII 8.1.1]

(WHO)UNICEF11(17%)

120

42%WHO170

()

[WGII 9.2.2]

[WGII 8.2.2]

)

[WGII 8.2.58.4.2.2]

4.3.1.1


80/214

68

2003

(SenhorstZwolsman2005)

[WGII 8.2.5]

(ParkinsonButler2005)

[WGII 8.2.5]

[WGII 14.2.58.2.5]

()

[WGII 8.2.43.4.4]

(Checkley2000Singh2001Vasilev2003Lama2004)

[WGII 8.2.5]

4.3.1.2

(GLOF)(3.2)[WGII3.4.3]

[WGII 8.2.2]

,

[WGII 8.2.216.4.5]

()

[WGII 8.2.2]

4.3.1.3

()

()

[WGII 8.2.3.1]

4.3.1.4

[WGII 8.2.6.4]

4.3.1.5

()

()

[WGII 8.2.8]

[WGII 8.2.3.1]

(

)

[WGII 8.2.8.3]


81/214

4.3.2

[WGII7]

(

)[WGII 1.3]

4.3.3

20

(Rockstrom2003) [WGII 8.2.58.4.2.2]

4.3.4

[WGII 8.6]

[WGII 8.6.3]

[WGII 8.6.4]

4.24.3

4.4.1

4.3.1

4.4.2

4.1

4.4

(Sutherst2004)

(SteenvooEndreny2004)()

[WGII 8.6.43.4.4]


82/214

70

4.1:/[WGII3]

4.4.3

a.

b. (du Plessis2003)

c. d. e.

f. (Chen2004)

20204172050102020801132(Arnell2004)

SRES[WGII 3.23.5.1]

1()(

2003)[WGI3.4.4]

/

(

)

()[WGII 3.3.28.6.4]

[WGII 3.4.414.4.1]

[WGII 3.4]

(Kovats2005Eb2006)

100

(MillerYates2006)[WGII 3.5.1]

/

(Ames1998KaserOsmaston2002)

()


83/214

[WGII 3.5.1]

()

(Nchito1998Kang2001)

(Jimnez2003)

[WGII 3.23.4.48.2.5]

(

2001)

(PCB())[WGII 3.4.4]

(SmallNicholls20032005b)[WGII 3.23.4.2]

(

)

(AlcamoHenrichs2002RPrudhomme2002)[WGII 3.3.23.5.1]

4.4.4

(Har2005)

(Ruostee2003)505[WGII 7.4.2.3.1]

2050)

[WGII 3.3]

[W3.53.6]

WHO(2005)(W


84/214

72

1 /0.60/(ZhouTol2005)0.02 /

[WGII 7.5]

[WGII 3.5.1]

[WGII3.3.2]

(

)

[WGII 7.4.2.3]

(

)

(

)

[WGII 3.5.1]

()

[WGII 3.4.4]

[WGI3.4.38.6.4]

()

[WGI3.6]


85/214

(Shepherd2002Klein2003

2004Sherbinin2006)

(

)

(UNWWAP20032006Faruqui2001UNDP2006)

(AlcamoHenrichs2002RagabPrudhomme2002)[WGII 6.4.220.3]

[WGII 6.4.27.4.2.4] (

)

(ElsasserBurki2002Hayhoe2004)[WGII 7.4.312.4.9]

[WGII 3.4.33.57.4.2.3]

4.5.1

1124(WHO/UNICEF2000)

(UN-HABITAT2003UNCHS20032006UNDP2006)

4.5 25%1998

(Faruqui2001

[W3.5.1]

(2005b)[WGII 7.4]

[WGII 7.4.2.4] [WGII 6.4.1.2]

(Sma

Nicholls20032005b)

4.5.2

4.5.2.1

(

)

(ArkellDarch2006)

(Suarez 2005

(Kirshen2006)[W7.4.2.3.3]

100(Shukla2)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]

4.5.2.2

(

(Bigio20032003)


86/214

74

(20012003)[WGII 7.4.2.4]

(GravesPhillipson2000)(SandersPhillipson

2003)(Kharkina2004)[WGII 3.5]

(2004)[WGII 7.6.4]

4.5.2.3

(Hareau1999Lewsey2004Kumar2006)

21001300(Zeidler1997)11700170

[WGII 6.36.46.5]

4.5.2.4

(

)

(3.211092.07

109

)(780613)(HarrisonWhittington2002)(WhittingtonGundry1998Magadza2000)IS92a217020

15%30%19%()100%()(Lehner2005

)[WGII 3.5] ()

[WGII 7.5] ()

(EEA2005)

4.5.3

(

)[WGII 3.6]

[WGII 3.5]

4.6.1

[WGII 7.1.3]

2070

[WGII 1.3.8.5]

10%

4.6


87/214

(

)

[WGII TAR 8.2.3]

4.6.2

(Kirshen2006)101(1300)

(Compton2002)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]

()

(

)[WGII 7.4.2.1]

()

(

1998)[WGII 7.4.2.2.4]

()(UNEP/GRID-Arend2002)[WGII 7.4.2.2]

(Br1999Uyarra2005)()

()

[WGII 7.4.2.2.3])[W

11.4.9.12.4.9.14.4.7]

[WGII 7.4.2.2.2

[WGII 18.5]

[WGII 17.2.3]


88/214


89/214

5


90/214


91/214

5.1

201212223(1990)1000

5.1.1

Arnell(2004)IPCC

SRESHadCM3202050

,

,(

2.82.9),

,,

[WGI 11.2,11.1;WGII 9.4.1]

202521,

,1000 / /

221000-1700 / /,

4.6

,(UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002)23

,

,,

200047%2025

65%(Ashton,2002),

[WGII 9.2,9.4]

,

,,

,2020,

0.32%,

0.6%(New,2002)

,Conway(2005),

,

,

[WGII

9.4.2]

,

,

,1993-1997,1

1998(,

),1997

(Mercier,2002)

(

5.1)[WGII 9.2.1.1,1.3.2.3]

(mm)

()

()

5.1

()(b)(600)(c)

](OReilly2003)2003[WGII1.2]

5.1.2

5.1.2.1

(,Dai,2004a),


92/214

80

(,ENSOAMO)2050

60,207090

(79)9

2030,

(5.2)

1982/83,

[WGI 3.7.4],

(

),

[WGI 9.5.4]

5.1.2.2

25%,

69%

(Vrsmarty,2005),

,,,20

90,2000

62%(WHO/

UNICEF,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]

,

(,2000),

,2060,

,2060

,,19311960

30,1968-199020

40%(Nicholson,2000;ChappellAgnew,2004;Da

,2004a)ENSO

,(NAO)

(NicholsonSelato,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]

5.1.2.3

(Warren,2006)[WGII 9.4.2] ,

70%,

,,

51%8%

,99%80%

[WGII 9.2.2.8]

5.1.2.4

;

5.2:1920-2003(10N20N 18W20E)

(4-10)(Dai2004a))()

()[WGI3.37]


93/214

(Hay,2002a;Craig

,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]

,

,

(Thomson,2005b)

(Thomson,2006)

(DaSilva,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]

,

,(Hay

,2002a,b;Shanks,2002),

,

,(Patz,2002)

2070,

,(Pascual

,2006),

,,

(Craig,2004)

HIV(Craig

,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]

,

(-)

(Bouma,2003)

3-4

(GithekoNdegwa,2001)

50208090

,

(Abeku,2003)

,

,

(Zhou,2004,2005),

(Hay,2005)[WGII

8.2.8.2]

,

,

,

,

(Kosek,2003)

,,(Nc

,1998;Kang,2001)[WGII 8.2.5,9.2.2.6]

5.1.2.5 ,G

GDP

,,21%(10%7

(Mendelsohn,2000b)GDP

,,,

,

,

,

(Mendelsohn,2000a,b;Stige,20

[WGII 9.2.1.3]

5.1.2.6

[WGII 9]

,

(

5.1)

,

(UNEP/GR

Arendal,2002),

,207090,

20

25-35(Gonzalez,2001)

/

;(ECF

,2004)[WGII 9.2.1.4]

5.1.3

5.1.3.1 2025,

20,

[WGII 9.4.1]

SRES

20202050,

7500~2.53.5~6

(Arnell,2004),


94/214

82

(Arnell,2004),2055,

(5.4),

,

(Arnell,2006a)[WGII 3.2,3.2,

3.4,9.4.1,9.3]

,

,

,,

[WGII 3.4.2,3.5]

5.1: [WGII 9.1]

20(5.35.1)1976150(Hemp2005)

5.3: (Hemp2005)

1976 (km2

) 2000 (km2

) (%)

1066 974 -9

187 32 -83

202 257 +27

69 218 +216

90 44 -51

5.1:(Hemp2005)

1

,,

10%(Agoumi,2003)[WGII 9.4.1,3.2,3.4.2]

5.1.3.2

,

,,

(Riebsame

,1995;Salewicz,1995)[WGII TAR 10.2.11,


95/214

10.1]

5.1.3.3

,

(MARA/ARMA)202020502080

(Thomas,2004)

20502080,

(

,Hartmann,2002),2100,

,

[WGII 9.4.3]

,

1997/98

,,(3.2.1.2)

,

(;Warren,2006)[WGI

11.1,11.2.3;WGII 9.4.3,5.4.3.1]

5.1.3.4

(Thor

,2006)

2100,90%,

,

(Benhin,2006)[WGII 9.4.4]

5.2

,

,

,,

,

(Thornton,2006),

,

,(P

,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]

,,

( Cur

Shannon,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]

(

Mendelsohn,2006)14%

9%(-50)[WGII 9.4.4]

2055 2055

5.4: 1961-1990()(Arnell2006b)

1000m3//HadCM3

[WGII9.3]


96/214

84

5.1.3.5

5000,

2050,

,(

,

)51-61%(2800)

,2%

,,

,

,

,

(5.3)[WGII 4.4,9.4.5,9.1]

,

5.2: [WGII 9.2]

200070km

3(Gueye2005)

85%GDP20%70%(El-Gindy2001)

(EPIQ2002ICID2005)2017

(Wahab2005)

(Abou-Hadid2006Eid2006)

( Attaher2006)

20501.15-1.79SRES

( Conway2005)

5.3: [WGII 4.1]

19902.5-3.0 C

2459%

2840%

1370%

1880%

2145%

66%


97/214

,

[WGII 9.3.1]

,/

,

,

[WGII 9.4.5]

,

,

,[WGII 4.4.3] ,

25-40%

[WGII 9.4.5]

5.1.4

,,

(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1]

[WGII 9.4.1]

25%(2)

,(

5.1.3.1)[WGII 9.ES] ,

,,,2025

,

[WGII 9.4.1] ,

,,

,

[WGII 9.5.2]

ENSO,

[WGI 3.7.4,3.6.4,11.2]

,ENSO,

;

;

;

(Glantz,2001)[WGII 17.2.2]

,

,()[WGII 9.2.1]

(Agoumi,2003;

Conway,2005),

(,de Wit

Stankiewicz,2006)[WGII 9.4.1]

,

,

,

(Osman-Elasha,2006)

,

[W

9.5.1,17.1]

,

,

,

,

(St

2007)[WGII 9.5.2]

5.2

5.2.1 ,

43

203000,

1000-3000,6100

(6)(FAO,2004a

c)[WGII 10.1] ,

[WGII 10.2] ,/

,

,,

,

[WGII 10.2]

5.2.2

5.2.2.1 ,

()

,

,2

,


98/214

86

(TrenberthHoar,1997;Aldhous,2004),

[WGI

3.3.2,3.7.1;WGII 10.2.2,10.2.3]

,

,

, (Zhai ,1999;Khan ,2000;Shres tha

,2000;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Mirza,2002;Kajiwara

, 2003 ;La l 2003 ;Min , 2003 ;Ruos teeno ja

, 2 0 0 3 ; Z h a i P a n , 2 0 0 3 ; G r u z a

Rankova,2004;Zhai,2004),,

, (Manton

,2001;Kanai,2004;)[WGII 10.2.3]

,

,

,ENSO (Webster ,1998; Duong,2000;PAGASA,2001;Lal,2002,

2003;Batima, 2003;GruzaRankova,2004;Natsagdorj

,2005)[WGI3.6;WGII 10.2.3]

[WGI 4.7.2]

,

,

(Osterkamp ,2000;Guo

,2001;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Jorgenson,2001;Izrael

,2002;FedorovKonstantinov,2003;Gavriliev

Efremov,2003;MelnikovRevson,2003;Nelson,2003;Tu

merbaatar,2003;ACIA,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]

,2060

(2.6)[WGI 4.5.2] ,

,,/

- ,-

(Hewitt,2005)[WGI 4.5.3] ,

,

(Bhadra,2002;WWF,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]

5.5

(1780)

, ,

,

, ,

,

,[WGII 10.6.2]

,

,,

,

,

,

-

-,

(Abu-Taleb,2000;RagabPrudhomme,2002;Bou

ZeidEl-Fadel,2002;UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002),ENSO

,,

,

(Manton, 2001)[WGII 10.2.4.2]

5.5: 1780()(20099NASA EROS)[WGII10.6]


99/214

5.2.2.2 ,

,

(Wijeratne,1996;Agarwal

,2000;Jin,2001;Fischer,2002a;Tao,2003a,2004)

[WGII 10.2.4.1]

5.2.2.3 ,

,,

(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)

,

,,

(Zhang,2003)[WGII 10.2.4.4]

,

1999-2001,

,

(Pan,2003)[WGII

10.2.4.4]

5.2.3

5.2.3.1 ,

,,

(Peterson,2002)

()

,CO2

,GCM1.2C,

15%,

(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)

35-41%,

16-19%,1961-1990,2010-

2038,2070-2099

,17-24%,

26-29%(Hoanh,2004)[WGII 5.3],

,,

[WGII 10.4.2.1]

,

,

,

(Iafazova,1997)[WGII 10.4.2.1]

,

10-20(Shen,2003

,2003;Thanh,2004)

,

(Hu,2001)

0.4-1.0

1-3(HuangXie,2000)

(Xu,2003;Thanh,2004;Huang,200

[W

10.4.2.1,10.4.3.2]

,

,

,,

,,(Batima,2004,2005) [W

10.4.2,10.6]

,

[WGII 10.4.2,10.6]

1961-1990,2050,

27%

10-15%,

(Qin,2002),

,

,,

,

20%-40%(Tao,2005),

Hig

(2006),SRES AlB,2050-2300

,()1.1

[WGII 10.4.2.3]

,

20011820m3/20501140m(GuptaDeshpande,2004),

2025,

1000m3(CWC,2001)

,

,


100/214

88

,

,

,SRES,212050,

1.2-121.85-9.81

(Arnell,2004)21,

13-19%,16-24%,

(ADB,1994) [WGII

10.4.2]

5.2.3.2 (

),

(,2002)[WGII 10.4.2]

5.2.3.3 1C,

1 0%( F i s c h e r

,2002a;Liu,2002)Tao(2003b)

,

,,

,2.8

2.10,

,

,

70%(Liu

,2001;Qin,2002)[WGII 10.4.1]

[WGII 10.4.1.2]

5.2.4

,

,

,

,

[WGII 10.2.4,10.4,10.6]

,

,

,

,

,

,,

(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1] ,

,

,(

)

(5.4)[WGII 17.2,17.5,16.5]

,()

(Wang,2003),

(Frolov,2004)

[WGII 10.5.2]

,,

,

;

,

,

;

[WGII 10.5.2]

,

,

,

,

(,),

,

,,,

,,

,,

[WGII 10.5.2,10.5.7]


101/214

5.4: Tsho Rolpa[WGII 17.1]

Tsho Rolpa4580Tsho Rolpa1957/580.23 km219971.65 km2(5.6)91 (GLOF)

5.6:Tsho Rolpa

(Khim1998(GLOF)319Tsho Rolpa

20024320GLOFGLOF

Tsho Rolpa20500.38/20900.54/[WGII 1.3.1.1]

Mool(2001)OECD(2003)ShresthaShrestha(2004)


102/214

90

,,

[WGI

11.ES,11.2.4,11.7]

5.3.2

20,

5 - 7

,,

50%(5.7)

20,

20%,1.7%(IOCI,2002)

,,

(IOCI,2002),

,2006,

[WGII 11.6]

5.3

5.3.1

,,

(

2.1.7)2002,

18951902,

[WGII

11.2.1 ,11.2.4]

2080

(WoodsHoward-Williams2004)2060

55%(2000)19851996,

65%(NLWRA,2001)

,

(SOE,2001;Cullen,2002)

G1

1911-1974 (338G1)

1975-1996 (177G1)

1997-2005 (115G1)

5.71911-2006http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Ddams_streamow.cfm()[WGII11.3]


103/214

5.3.3

5.3.3.1 2030,

,

[WGII 11.ES] -

,70%(MDBC,2006)SRES A1B1

GCM,2050

10%-25%,210016%-48%,

-8+19% -25+72%(Beare

Heaney, 2002) [WGII 11.5]

290-45%( Jones

Durack,2005)A2,,1961-1990

,2021-2050,

6%-8%,

14%(Chiew,2003)(SRES

B1A1BA1F),2020,3%-11%,

20507%-35%;,2020,-

(Howe,2005)

[WGII 11.4.1]

,,

(WoodsHoward-Williams,2004)

,,

,

(,)

,(Mullan

,2005)

ENSOIPO(McKerchar

Henderson,2003),

(Namjou

,2006),

[WGII 11.4.1.1]

5.3.3.2 ,

,,

,

,

,

(,2004)

[WGII 11.4.10]

5.3.3.3 (

)

,

,(Woodruff,2002,2006)

;

(),

,

,

(McMichael,2003)[WGII 11.4.11]

(Davis,1997;S

2001),

,(Falconer,1997)

,,

(Viney,2003) [W

11.4.1]

5.3.3.4

,

[WGII 11.7]

,

,

(Sorensen,2000)

,

(Hood,2002;Mill

Veltman,2004;Jenkins,2006)[WGII 11.4.3]

5.3.3.5 2020,

,

(,)

,

,

(BunnArthington,2002;HallBurns,2002;He

,2002;Schallenberg,2003)[WGII 11.ES,11


104/214

92

5.3.4

,-

,

(,2005),

,

(,

)(5.2)[WGII

11.2,11.6],

,

,

[WGII 11.5]

,

,

,

(,

),

,

,(Beare

Heaney,2002)

,

,

[WGII 11.5]

,

,

[WGII 11.2.5]

,

[WGII 11.7]

200120067 DAFF, 2006b

2004-200915 DAFF, 2006a

- 2004-20094 DPMC, 2004

20122.25 ,2006

20151.53 ,2006

- 20103.76 DSE, 2006

39800682500

DEUS, 2006

(Qld) 2005-2010

1.823.02

,2005

2025

2005

(WA) (2003)()1996-2006

1996-200652.90

,2003,2006;2006

5.2:[WGII11.2]2007


105/214

5.4.1

,,

;

()

,

,[WGII TAR

13.1.2.1]

-

,,

(EEA,2004)

,

,

,,

,, [WGII

12.2.3,SPM]

;,

[WGII TAR 13.1.2.1]

5.4.2

1946-1999

(Klein Tank,2002),

NAO(Sc

,2005),1950-2000

(NorrantDougudroit,2006)

,(Frich,2002;K

Tank,2002;Alexander,2006)

(Auer,2007)

,

5.3[WGI ;WGII 12.2.1]

5.4.3

5.4.3.1 ,,

,,

,

Risnen(20

(S

A2,70%),

Giorgi(2004)

,,

30-45%)[WGI 11.1;WGII 12.3.1.1]

5.4

KlanderudBirks, 2003; Luoto2004

Viner2006

Frauenfeld2004Mazhitova2004

LaternserSchneebeli2003MartinEtchevers2005

Hoelzle2003

5.3: [WGII12.1]


106/214

94

(5.3)

(Werritty,2001;Andrasson,2004),

(Chang,2002;Etchevers

,2002;MenzelBrger,2002;Iglesias,2005)

A2B2,

(47N)2120

5%-15%,2170,

9%-22%(Alcamo,2007),(47N

),21200-23%,

21706%-36%()

(Krger,2002),

(Somlydy,2002),

(Eitzinger,2003)[WGII 12.4.1,

12.1]

,

,,

(Arnell ,2003,2004)[WGII 3.4.1] ,(MiddelkoopKwadijk,2001)

(Szolgay,2004)

(Oltchev,2002),,

,

,,

(Hock,2005)50%(ZierlBugmann,2005)

50%(Eckhardt

Ulbrich,2003),80%(Santos

,2002)[WGII 12.4.1]

,

(Dll,2002;DonevskaDodeva,2004)

(,),

(Holden,2003)

,(/

40%),

(Alcamo,2003b;Schrter,2005)[WGII 12.4.1]

(5.4)

,,

,

,

[WGII12.4]

ChristensenChristensen(2003)Giorgi

(2004)Kjellstrm(2004)Kundzewicz(2006)

,

,

,(Llasat,2001)[WGII 12.3.1.2]

Schr(2004),

,,

21,,

(Polemio

Casarano,2004)Good(2006),

50%,,

(Lenderink,2007),

,

,

(),

(Douville,2002)

2020 15%23%a

d

c

2050 20-30%b

2070 30%36%a

80%b, d

217010()c

()()()c

aAlcamo2007;bArnell, 2004, cLehner2006, dSantos2002.

5.4:ECHAM4HadCM3[WGII12.2]


107/214

[WGII 3.4.3,12.3.1]

,2180,

(Kay,2006b),

,

(Reynard,2004)Palmer

Risnen(2002)CO2

,CO2

,

,

(5-7),

[WGII 3.4.3]

5.4.3.2 (

19.8%)2170,

6%,20%-50%,

15%-30%,(Lehner,2005)

(OlesenBindi,

2002)[WGII 12.4.8.1]

5.4.3.3 ,

(Miettinen,

2001;Hunter,2003;Elpiner,2004;KovatsTirado,

2006)

,(Howe

,2002;Kistemann,2002;Opopol,2003;Knight,2004;Schijvende Roda Husman,2005)[WGII

12.4.11]

5.4.3.4 ,

()(MeehlTebaldi,2004;Schr

, 2004;Beniston, 2007)

( Jones,2003b),(Trnka,

2004),

,(,

,),

(,)

[WGII 12.4.7.1]

5.4.3.5 ,

()

[WGII 12.4.3]

(ACIA,2004)

(Iva

Maximov,2003)

,(Moss,2003;St

,2003;Briers,2004;Eisenreich,2005)

(Bouraoui,2004;K

,2004;Eisenreich,2005),

(Jeppesen,2003)

,(Sand-Jense

Pedersen,2005)[WGII 12.4.5]

,

(Gutirrez Teira,2003)[WGII 12.4.6]

5.4.4

(IPCC,2001b

(Hooijer,2004),

,(He

,2002)(Somlydy,2002)

(Silander,2006),

[WGII 12.5.1]

,

,

(Santos,2002;Iglesias,2005)

(Barreira,2004

(Schrter,2005)

,,

,

(Geres,2004),(Igl

,2005),

(AEMA,2002),

(DonevskaDodeva,2004;Geres,20(Iglesias,2005)

,

(Kabat,2002;Cosgrove,2004;Kashyap,2004)

,,

(DonevskaDodeva,2004)[WGII 12.5.1]


108/214

96

(,)

,

[WGII 3.ES,3.2,3.6]

()

10%;

50%;

,

(,)

[WGII 13.2.4.1]

10-20,

2-3/[WGII 13.2.4.1]

(5.9)

(5.5)

-,

[WGI 4.5.3]

5.5

5.8

5.5.2.2 ,

,

2001

,GDP(Kane,2002)

,[WGI

13.2.2,13.2.4]

5.5.2.3 ,

,,

,

(Gagnon,2002)

()(Patz

,2005),

,(Ko

,1999;Kupek,2000)

,

,--

,,/

,

5.5

5.5.1

,

,

,

,

,

-

30%,,

(Mata,2001),

ENSO

5.5.2

5.5.2.1 ,

,ENSO

(,

(19992005);

(20002002),(2005),

(2002)(2006)

,(2004),

2005)

1970-19992000-2005,

1.4,2090,

20002005

19%,

200(Nagy,2006)[WGII

13.2.2]

[WGII 13.2.2]


109/214

(WGII 13.2)

(%)

-/(Marengo2004) 19491999 -11 -17 / -

+18

(Ronchail2005) 1970 +15

-(PenalbaVargas2004) 19002000 +1 SD +2

(Bidegain2005) 19612002 + 20

-(Camilloni2005) 50 -50

(Pabn2003) 19611990 -4 +6

20042006(WGII 13.1)

20059

7086614(NOAA2005).

20052

()52006317. 5(UCV2005DNPC2005/2006)

20042006

-20043.6121(SRA2005)2004/05

-(http://www.cptec

inpe.br/)

-65%56%(http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/: http://www.ib

gov.br/english/)

(WGII 13.3)

/ /

a, b

35

22%(5.9)12%(60%)7000106m3

c

30

80%50188106m3

d

19902000

82%100

e

19561998

f

1990s

5.5

aVsquez,2004;bMarkSeltzer,2003;cNC-,2001;dNC-,2001;eNC-,2000;fFrancou,2003.

5.5:[WGII13.1,13.2,13.3]

(Hurtado-Diaz,2006)[WGII 13.2.2,8.2.8.3]

5.5.2.4 ,

,

,

38%18%13%12%

,7%[WGII

13.2.2,13.2.4]

5.5.2.5

,

(

),,

[WGII 13.2.2]


110/214

98

,

,

,()

1977-2001,

,

17%,

[WGII 13.2.2]

5.5.3

5.5.3.1 ,,B2

,21001C

4C,A22C6CGCM

(),

,,

,

,

AOGCM,

,

[WGI11.1,11.6;WGII

13.ES,13.3.1]

,

(1000m3//)2220

(1995)SRES,2120,

12008100,2150

,79001.78(Arnell,2004)

,5.6

,

,,

[WGII 13.4.3]

5.5.3.2

,(UNMSM,2004)

,

,(Ramrez

,2001)[WGI 4.5.3;WGII 13.2.4]

5.5.3.3 2.62,31%,

()

(PAHO,2003)SRES

,,,

,

,

(van Lieshout,2004)

(a) (b)

5.8: (a)(1960-2000);P0.05(

,Haylock(2006))(b)(1961-2003),

,,(

Aguilar(2005))[WGII13.1]


111/214

5.5. [WGII 1.1]

,,[W

4.5.3],,

,(5.9)

(16S)1940,

0.22,(2005)0.01(5.10)(Ramrez,2001;Franc

,2003;Berger,2005)19922005,90%,97%(Berg,2005),,2010(Coudra

,2005),[WGI 4.5.3],

20800C1050(Vuille,2003)

5260,2090,,,,(5.10)

5.1019402005,2005,

(1940)1940,800,1996,

600(1940,),2004,

FrancouVincent(2006)Jordan(1991)[WGII1.1]

120

100

80

60

1850 1900 1950 2000

5.91925(100),

(%)(Georges,2004)199

,620[WG

4.16]


112/214

100

,2010,

(Aparicio,2000;NC-,2001)

,

[WGII 13.4.5]2025 2055

,

(Hales2002)

,

()(Aparicio2000;PetersonShaw2003)

(Peterson

2005)[WGII 13.4.5]

5.5.3.4 ,

SRES

A2,2020

100,2050,

,2080,400[WGII

13.5,13.4.2]

5.5.3.5 ,

,

,

,

,

2150,

,50%[WGII

13.ES,13.4.1,13.4.2]

5.5.4

5.5.4.1

(GNP)

()

(SolanesJouravlev2006),

(Fay

2003b)

IRDBIDFB,

1992

(IRDB,2000)

,

,

()(La

Nacin,2002),

,(

)

()(

)()

(,2001;21,2002)

,NGO(ASA)

,P1MC,

100

(BSAT)100

,ASA12400,200421000

(Gnadlinger2003),20002002,

-

10

(Basn Nickisch2002)[WGII 13.2.5]

5.5.4.2 ,

60%

(

)

,

(COHIFE,2003)(5.6)[WGI

13.5]

GCM

19952025 2055

A1 22.2 35.7 21.0 54.0 60.0

A2 22.2 55.9 37.066.0 149.3 60.0150.0

B1 22.2 35.7 22.0 54.0 74.0

B2 22.2 47.3 7.077.0 59.4 62.0

5.6: HadCM3GCM,()(Arnell,2004)[WGII13.6]


113/214

5.6.[WGII 13.2]

,,,,,,,

,,,,;,(5.1(Treacy,1994;WrightValencia Zegarra,2000;Caran Nelly,2006),(Burger,1992)

5.11()(Orlo

,2000),,1000

,,,,( Bao dInca),(Tampumacchay)(Cortazar,1968),;(Burge1992)(Ollantaytambo),,,,

,(CanziaMata,2004),,,

,,(Carey,2005;Bradl,2006),,(ECLAC)(Dourojeanni,2000)


114/214

102

;,

()(Villagrn de Len,

2003)[WGII 13.5]

,

,

,

,

[WGII 14.2,14.4]

,-

[WGII 14.ES,14.2]

5.6

5.6.1

,

(

)

5.7,

[WGII

14.ES]

,

,20,

,

[WGII

14.ES,14.1]

5.6.2

5.6.2.1

(GCM)

2100,,

[WGI

11.5.3.2;WGII 14.3.1] A1B,

+20%,+30%

[WGI 11.5.3.3;WGII

14.3.1],

,

[WGI 10.3.6.1;WGII 14.3.1]

21,

,,(

),[WGII

14.4] ,

,

[WGII 14.2,15.2]

5.7( , )

AR4

1-4

[WGII 1.314.2]

[WGII 14.2WGI 4.2]

[WGI 4.2]

[WGI 3.3]

[WGI 4.2]

[ [WGII 14.2]

[WGII 14.2]

[WGII 14.2]

[WGII 14.4, 15.7]

(0.11.5C)

[WGII 1.3]

[WGII 14.2]

[WGI 4.ES, 4.5]

[WGII 4.4, 14.2]

[WGII 6.4]

[WGII 14.2 ]


115/214

,

(

)()(

)

,,

,;

,[WGII 14.4.1]

,

[WGII 3.4] ,

,

[WGII 3.4.2]

5.6.2.2 ,

,2090,

,,1999,(CCME,2003)[WGII

4.2]

2-3C,,

,

(),

(Christensen,2004),

(MoultonCuthbert,2000;Lofgren

,2002;Mirza,2004)

(4.37-6.60/),

(2800-4200/)

(Buttle,2004;Ouranos,2004),

(Ouranos,2004)[WGII 3.5,14.4.8]

60N(

A1B2080-20991980-1999

)[WGI 10.10]Pan(2004)

;0-20%

(CO2HadCM2RegCM224

)[WGII 14.4.8] ,,

33/106,1.83/109

(Walsh,2003)

,

(RegCM2CO2

)(Brown,2000)[WGII 14.4.8]

5.6.2.3 ,

,,

Curriero,2001)

(Thomas,2006)

,

(Schuster,2005)

(Dwight,2002)

,

(Fleury,2006)[WGII 14.ES,14.2.5]

[WGI SPM]

2005,

1800[WGII 6.4.2 ],

(CDC,2005;Manuel,2006)[W8.2.2;4.5]

5.6.2.4

,,,

(),TAR

(Reilly,2002),

,,,

,()(Hay

,2004;White,2006)[WGII 14.4.4]

(

(Parson,2003)

(Vasquez-Leon2003)

(,)

(Antle2004)(Po

Easterling,2001)[WGII 14.4.4;4.2.2

,

,()

[WGII 14.4.1]

24I


116/214

104

,

(,,

)

(HatfieldPruger,2004;Nearing

,2004)[WGII 14.4.1]

5.6.2.5 ,

,

,

,(Smith

,2000)(ZavaletaHulvey,

2004)[WGII 14.4.2](2040

)

,(Ross,2000)[WGII 1.3.3.2]

[WGII

6.4 ]

,,

(Berthelot,2002),

,

,

,

90,

(Barber,2000)Bachelet(2001)

,1C,

11%[WGII14.4]

,3C

,,,

(Johnson,2005)

[WGII 4.4.10]

;;,

(GallagherWood,2003)

(Wrona

, 2005),,

,

,(Jone

,2006)

(Clark,2001;Mohseni,2003)

[WGII 14.4]

5.6.2.6 5.75.8,

(

),

5.6.3

,

,

,

,

[WGI

14.5.2]

[WGII 14.7]

;,

[WGII 14.7] ,

,

(NAST,2000;Lemmen

Warren,2004)

,

(PaavolaAdger,2002)[WGII 14.5]

,


117/214

5.7

(Pulwa

,2005),2500,20203800100,

14%,1934,65%

,

,,400,

(1905-1925),,19

,30%-40%,2000-2004,

,,,

(Pulwarty,2005)

,(15%)(85%)

,,21,30%(Milly,2005),

202560%-75%(Christensen,2004)

2050,2050(),,

,

(),,20,

,(Pulwarty,2005)

,

,

(,2003;Wheaton,2005),

(

)

(WallSmit,2005)[WGII 14.2.4]

,

(MWD,2005)[WGII 14.3]

,

[WGII 14.5.1]

(Munich

Re,2004;MillsLecompte,2006) [WGII

14.2.4]

(Elsasser,2003;

,2004;Scott,2005;JonesScott,2006;Scott

Jones,2006)[WGII 14.2.4]

20 80

27 %34 %(

2005)[WGII 14.2.4]

,

(MWD,2005)[WGII

14.3]

,

(Sm

Wall,2003)[WGII 14.2.4]

;

,

(Hunt,2005)[WGII 14.5.1]

()

,

/(Changno

Changnon,2000)[WGII 14.5.1]

15%,


118/214

106

,

,

(Waters,2003)[WGII

14.5.1]

1970,35%(100),7%(

,2002),

[WGII 14.3]

2004 ,

,

(Cohen,2004;

,2004)[WGII 3.1,20.8.2]

5.7.1

,

,

,

,

,

(

)()

5.8[WGII 14.2]

()

,( 1964

)(1974)

(Miles,2000;Hamlet,2003)()

,,(Gray,1999;Scott

,2004),,

(Miles,2000;Mote,2003)

,,,

,(HamletLettenmaier,1999;Mote,1999)

,,

,(Miles,2000)

,21402C

570/2080/490

/(Mote2003),( Hamlet

,2002;LettenmaierHamlet,2003;Gamble,2004;Payne,2004)43,

,

(ISRP/ISAB,2004)

,

(Miles,2000;Parson,2001;Cohen,2003),()

(IPCC IS92aHadCM2ECHAM4/OPYC3AOGCM212090

)(HamletLettenmaier,1999)21,25%(Mote,1999),

,,

10%,(PDO)17%4,

10%-20%,(Payne,2004)(Cohen,2006)

5.7


119/214

,)

(400Bogoyavlenskiy

Siggner,2004),,

,,

,

,(

5000

),,

,

(HildStordhal,

2004)[WGI 10.6.4;WGII 15.2.1]

,

,

(,Shiklomanov,2000;Prowse,

2004)

,

,

[WGI 10.3.4;WGII 15.4.1]

5.7.2

2030,

(7%Peterson,2002),20

,

,

(DyurgerovCarter,2004)

,

,

(AbdalatiSteffen,2001;Johannessen

,2005;Walsh,2005)

,,,

(McClelland,2004),,

()

,-

(,Gibson,2006;Peters

,2006)[WGI 9.5.4;WGII 15.4.1.1]

,

,

1%

(McBean,2005;Walsh,2005)

,

,(Yang

,2002;Berezovskaya,2005),

(Yang,2004a,b

(

),60,

,,

(Yang,2002)(Y

,2004b)

,,

,

(Walsh,2005)[W

15.2.1,15.4.1.1]

,

(Walsh,2005),

,

(Serreze,2003;Berezovskaya,2005;Zh

,2005)20,

,(Smith,2005

5.12),

,,

,

,

/

(Korhola,2002;Ruhland,2003;Pie

,2004;Smol,2005;Prowse,2006)[WGI

;WGII 15.4.1.1]

,

,

,(Dry Valleys)

,(D

,2002),,

(Quayle,2002),

(Quayle,2003)[WGII 15.2.2.2]

5.7.3

,

,GCM

,,

,,

10%-30%


120/214

108

,

(,Callaghan,2005)

CO2(,Gedney

,2006)(Anisimov

Belolutskaia,2004;Instanes,2005)

/

(Syvitski,2002),

( Bogaart van

Balen2000;Vandenberghe,2002) [WGI10

;WGII 15.4.2.3,15.4.1.2]

,

,

,

,

,,

[WGI 10;WGI

15.4.1.3]

(Walsh,2005)

,

,

(Beltaos,2006;Prowse,2006)

,

,,

(Prowse,2006)[WGII 15.4.1.2,15.6.2]

,

(Prowse,2006;Reist2006a,b,c;Wrona

,2006)

,(,

),

(Nuttall,2005;Reist,2006a)[WGII 15.4.1.3]

,

,

(,)(MacDonald

,2003)(Wrona

,2006)

,

/(

,1997;Martin2005)

,

,(Warren

,2005)[WGII 15.4.1]

5.12,(20701997-2004,),

,Smith,(2005)AAAS[WGII15.4]


121/214

,

;

;

;

(,2000;Prowse

,2004; Instanes,2005)

,IS92a,

20,

15%-30%[WGI

3.5.1,WGII 15.4.1.4]

5.7.4

,

,(,Ruhland,2003),

(Wrona,2006),

(Wrona,2005)[WGII 15.2.2.2]

,,

(,

)/

(,

;ProwseBeltaos,2002)

,

,

(McBean,2005;Nuttall,2005)[WGII

15.2.2.2]

1. 25

2.

3. ,

(SIDS),

[WGII TAR17]

,

,

,

,

(

),

()

[WGII 16.ES,16.5.2]

5.8.2

,

(

),

[WGII 16.7.1] TAR,

,1901-2004

,

,

[WGII 16.2.2.2]

,1910,

(SPCZ)26

,0.6C-1.0

2070,,

SPCZ0.3C-0.5

2040

(Salinger,2001;Folland,2003)

,1971-20040.24C-0.5C,

,

(McBean,2005)[WGII 16.2.2.2]

1961-2003,

5.8

5.8.1

TAR(17;IPCC,2001b)

(,

),,

,

25 (UNFCCC),GHG

26

SPCZITCZ,,


122/214

110

,

,,

,

(Manton

2001;Griffiths2003),

2050

(Petersen

2002)[WGII 16.2.2.2]

,1.5C-2C

[WGII TAR17]

,

(

),

- 20507-8%,

- 20506-8%,

- 205020%,

,

ENSO

,

,

,

,,

,,

,1970,

,SST

,

1970

,20

70,[WGI

TS,3.8.3;WGII 16.2.2.2]

25

,0.7mm/(Mitchell,2001)50

(),(

)1.6mm/[WGI 5.5.2]

5.8.2.1 7GCMSRES,

5.8

,,

,SRES

,

,

,[WGI

16.3.1]

20102039 20402069 20702099

-35.6 +55.1 -52.6 +38.3 -61.0 +6.2

-14.2 +13.7 -36.3 +34.2 -49.3 +28.9

-5.4 +6.0 -6.9 +12.4 -9.8 +14.7

-6.3 +9.1 -19.2 +21.3 -2.7 +25.8

-3. 9 + 3.4 -8.23 +6.7 -14.0 +14.6

5. 8(%)AOGCMSRES B1B2A2A1F1[WGII16.2]

10%(2050),

20%

[WGII 16.4.1]

,

,,

,

[WGII 16.4.1]

,,

,

,,

,

,

,,,

;

;,

[WGII 16.4.1]

,(MRAE,2004),,

;(GDE,2002)

(,1999)

(NEAB,2000)

,

,(

)

[WGII 16.4.2]


123/214

5.8.2.2 ,

,

,

,

,,,,

[WGII 16.4.6,16.4.7]

5.8.2.3

,

(WHO2003),ENSO,(Rawlins,2005)

,

,

(Singh,2001)

[WGII 8.2,8.4],(Singh

,2001),

[WGII 16.4.5]

5.8.2.4 ,

,,,

,(2000)

,SRES A2B2,2050,,

,2300-5200

(2002GDP2%-3%),

()800

-1600(2002GDP

17%-18%),50%

,

[WGII 16.4.3]

5.8.2.5 Burke(2002)BurkeMaidens(2004),

50%45%

-(Graham,2006),

,

[WGII 16.4.4]

,

,

,,

80%,

(Gardner,2003)

[WGII 16.4.4]

5.8.3

(Kerr,2005)

[WGII 16.6]

5.92100

,

[WGII 16.5]

,

,,

,

[WGII 16.7.1]

(N

,2001)

GDP,

;,

[WGII 16.7]

,

,(


124/214

112

*

1.

SRES A1B2ACIA(2005)

2.

I/II

/ 2C

Fosaa(2004)

-

I

II

3.

Smith (2002)

4.

SRES A1FIB1

Gritti(2006)

5. -

(GLM/

STATISTICA)Sanz(2003)

6.

(CLIMEX)Kriticos(2005)

7.

SRES A2B2(2000)

205010%

20%

8. 15

2100

0.88 m

Gilman(2006)

50%15

12%

9.

SRES A1, A1FI,

B1, A2, B2

Fish(2005)

0.538%(24%SD)

10.

Uyarra(2005)

5.9:[WGII16.1]

*


125/214

)Sutherland,2005),

,

[WGII16.5]

IPCC

[WGII 16.7]

(,)

;

,;

,

;

,

,;

,

,

,

,

,

,2100,

[WGII 16.5]


126/214


127/214

6


128/214


129/214

6.1

(GHG)

IPCC()

IPCC

(6.1)

6.1

6.2.2 (2)

[LULUCF 4.5.1]

[LULUCF 4.5.1] GHG

2050100 EJ/

400 EJ/(Hoogwijk, 2004; Hoogwijk, 2

; Sims, 2006)Smeets(2007)

800 EJ/

/

(Smeets200

[WG III 8.4.4.2]

(Unkovich, 2003Dias de Oliveira2005)

(Ber

Brjesson2002Jackson2005)

(MachadoSilva2001Freibauer200

[WG III 8.8]

()

(WestMarland, 200

Balmford 2005; Mooney2005)

(HustonMarland, 2003G

2005)[WG III 8.8]

6.2

6.2.1 (CCS)(6.1 (1)

)

(CO2)(CCS)CO

2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

[CCS SPM, 5.ES]

CO2[CCS 5.ES, 5.2]


130/214

118

/

CCS(1) [?]

(2) [+/-](5) [-](13) [-]

(3) [+]

CCS(1) [?]

(12) [-](3)[-/?]

(7) [+/-]()(8) [+/-]

()(9) [+/-]

()(10) [+]

(12) [+/-]

/

//

(4) [+/-](13) [-](5) [-]

(2) [+/-](4) [+/-]

s(6)[+/-]

(7) [+/-]()(8) [-]

()(9) [+]

(10) [+/-](11) [+]

(12) [+]

(4) [+/-]

(5) [-]

(7) [+/-]

(7) [+/-]

(10) [-]

6.1:()[+][]

[?]6.2

(1) (CCS) (3,000)

(2) /

(3) ()

(4)

(5)

(6) ()

(7) ()()()

(8)

(9)

(10) ()

(11) /

(12)

(13) ()


131/214

(BerndesBrjesson,2002; Berndes

,2004; BrjessonBerndes,2006)[WG III 8.8]

[LULUCF 4.21]

6.2.3 (3)

[WG III 4.ES]

[WG III89]

2030432

TWh/ [WG III 4.4.4]

6.2.4 (4)

()

()

( )

(

)

75%

[WG III 4.3.3]

(>10 MW)2004

2,800 TWh16%(90%)

4.5%

6,000 TWh /

[WG

III 4.3.3.1]

(


132/214

120

[WG III 8.4.1.3]

[LULUCF 4.10]

[WG III 8.12]

()

(Cole1993)

(Cole1993Isensee

Sadeghi1996)

[WG III

TAR 4.4.2]

(Lal1999

Bationo2000Resck2000Swarup

2000)

(

)

[LULUCF

4.1]

[WG III8.12]

()

GHG

(Dalal

2003Paustian2004Oenema2005

Olesen2006)[WG III 8.8]

()

[LULUCF 4.5.1 ] [WG III 8.12]

6.2.8 ()(8)

GHG

()

(Unkovich2003Dias de Oliveira

2005)

[WG III 8.12]

6.2.9 ()(9)

(CTIC1998)

()

[LULUCF

4.3 ]

[LULUCF 4.4.2.4 ]/

[WG III 8.12]

6.2.10 (10)

()

(Calder1990)

[LULUCF

2.5.1.1.4]

(Hibbert1967Schulze1982)


133/214

(Hibbert1967SwankDouglass1974)

Vincent(1995)

(JonesGrant1996)

[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]

(MorrisThomson, 1983)

()

(Schofeld1992) [LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]

()(Greenwood 1985)

(Calder, 1992). [LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]

(Fukushima1987;

Kobayashi1987)

(Le

MaitreVersfel1997)

(Jackson

2005)

[WG III

TAR 4.4.1]

[LULUCF 4.7.2.4]

6.2.11 (11)

()

(Parrotta2002)[WG III 9.7.2]

(ChomitzKumari1996)[WG III T

4.4.1]

(Myers1997)

(ARD)

ARD

[LULUCF 3.6.2]

6.2.12 (12)

(

)GHG

)()

[WG III10.7]

GHG

[WG III 10.4.6]

[WG III 10.4.6


134/214

122

6.2.13 (13)

(Williams2006)

()

4

()

)75%(NEB2006)

75%

[WG III 4.3.1.4]

GHG

( 6.2)

6.3.1 (1)

75%

(

)

()

[WG III

4.3.3.1]

6.3 GHG

)(

2000)

UNFCCC

(CDM)

[WG III 4.3.3.1]

6.3.2 (2)

18%(

2005ab)(

)

(Follett2001

Lal2004)

(Schlesinger1999 ; Mosier 2005 )

(Liebig 2005

[WG III 8.4.1.1.d]

(Yan2003)[WG III 8.4.1.1.e]

6.3.3 (3)

()()

(Cerri2004

)

(Madari2005)

(WestPost2002; Alvarez2005Gregorich

2005Ogle2005)

N2O

(Cassman2003Smith

Conen2004Helgason2005Li2005

)N2ON

2O

(Marland200

)

(Marland2003Koga2006)

(

Cerri2004)


135/214

/

(7) [+] (1) [+/-]

(2) [-]

(7) [+]

(6) [-]

(1) [+/-]

(1) [-] (2) [+/-]

(3) [+](4)

[+/-]

(5)

[+/-]

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4) ()

(5) (GHG)(

)

(6)

(7) GHG

6.2:[-]()

[+]6.3

[WG III 8.4.1.1.c]

6.3.4 (4)

(

)

N2O(Monteny2006)

N2O(Reay2003

)[WG III 8.4.1.1.d]

6.3.5 (5)

N2O

[WG III 10.3.1]

19902020

50%

N2O

1990202025%

2012

[WG III 10.3.1]

N2O

1990N2O

2020[

III 10.3.3]

(3-5)

()


136/214

124

GHG

[WG III 10.6.2]

GHG [WG III 10.6.2]

6.3.6 (6)

()

[WG II 3.3.2]

6.3.7 (7)

(6.2.5)

(Dang2003)

6.4

(

)

(

)

[WG I

18.8, 18.4.3]

(

) (Christensen

2004Van Rhe enen2004 ) [WG I

18.4.3]

(Boutkan

Stikker2004)

[WG I

18.4.3]


137/214

7


138/214


139/214

7.1

(

)

(

)

(

)()

[WGII

3.4]

()[WGII 3.4,3.5]

[WGII

TS, 3.3.1, 3.4]

()

[WGII TS, 14.5]

[WGII 3.4.3]

(

)

[WGII TS.5, 3.4, 3.7]

[WGII 3.4.2]

[WGII 3.5.1

[W

3.2, 3.4.4, 3.4.5]

[WGII 3.4, 3.5]

[WGII 3.4,3.5]

[W

3.3.2,3.5]

[W

3.5.1]

[W

TS, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6]

(

)

[WGII 3.6]

2100

)

)

[WGII TS]

[WGII 3.4.1]

(

)

20%

2180


140/214

128

[WGII 4.4.8]

[WGII 4.4.8]

[WGII 4.ES]

[WGII 4.ES, 4.4.11,

4.1, 4.6.1, 4.6.2]

[WGII 5.4.1, 5.4.2]

[WGII SPM]

[WGII 5.4]

[WGII

5.5.2]

/

[WGII 5.5.1]

[WGII 8.6.4]

[WGII 5.7]

[WGII 3.2, 3.4.2]

/

(-

)

() [WGII

6.3, 6.4]

[WGII 7.4.3, 7.5]

[WGII 7.4.3.2]

(

)

[WGII 7.6]

[WGI

14.5.3, 14.3]

[WGII 8.2.5]

[WGII 8.2.2]

[WGII 3.8]

7.2

[WGII 9.4.1][WGI

9.6][WGII 9.2.2, 9.4.3])

[WGII 9.4]

2180

5%-8(6-9

) [WGII 9.4.4]


141/214

[WGII 9.4.4, TS.6]

2150

()

()(

)[WGII 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.8]

25%-40%

30%

[WGII 9.4.5, 3.4.7, 5.4.5]

()

[WGII 9.2.2, TS.6]

2025

1,820

m31,000 m3[WGII 10.4.2.3]

[WGII 10.4.2]

1C10%[WGII 10.4.1]

[WGII 6.4, 10.4.3]

(2007)[WGII

3.4.1, 10.4.2.1]

(

20300-45%

2050

10%-25%)[WGII 11.4.1]

2030

[WGII 11.ES, 11.4.5, 11

2030

[W

11.4]

CO22180

[WGII 12.3.

2170

36

IS92a80%[W

12.4.1, T12.2]

(

0.4)

217034%-36%[WGII 12

218017

16004400(HadCM

)[WGII 12.4.1]

21 70

6%

20%-50%

15%-30%[WGII 12.4.8]

2050

30%-70%

[WGII 12.4.3]

[W

13.4.3]

SRES A22020

37006600(

5600) [WGII 13.4.3]

)

[WGII 13.4.3]


142/214

130

[WGII 13.2.4, 13.4.3]

21

[WGII 14.4.1]

[WGII14.2.1, 14.2]

5%-20%

[WGII 14.4.4]

[WGII 14.2.6,

14.4.6]

2050

20%-35% SRES

2050

15%-25%50%

[WGII 15.3.4]

[WGII 15.4.1]

/

[WGII 15.4.1]

[WGII 15.4.6]

[WGII

16.ES]

SRES

[WGII 16.4.1]

10%(2050

)

20%

[WGII 16.4.1]

(

)

[WGII 16.4.1]

7.3

()

CO2

[WGIII 4.3.3.1, 8.4.1.1]

7.4

( 7.1)

[WGII 3.7] .

[WGII 7.1.3, 7.2, 7.4]


143/214

1:

2:

3:

4:

6:,

,

7:

7.1:[WGII3.6]


144/214


145/214

8


146/214


147/214

8.1

/

(

)

[WGI 3.3.3, 3.3.4]

[WGI 3.3.4]

[WGI 3.3.4]

[WGI TS 6.2, 4.2.2, 4.3]

CO2

[WGI 7.2]

[WGI TS.6; WGII 3.8]

()

[WGI 3.3.2.5]

(

)

8.2.1

[SYR; WGI TS.6]

(

)

8.2


148/214

136

()

8.2.2 [WGII 3.5.1, 3.8]

(

)

(

)

(

)

(

)

8.3

(

)

[WGII 3.8]

[CCS, TS, 10

]

/

)

-

[WGII

4.3.3.3]

GHG


149/214

(

CO2

N2O

)[WGIII 8.4.1.1]

[WGIII 9.7.3]


150/214


151/214

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