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IPCC
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1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3.1
1.3.2
1.4
2.
2.1
2.1.1 ()
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4
2.1.5
2.1.6
2.1.7
2.2 2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3
2.3.1 ()
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.3.5
2.3.6
2.3.7
3.
3.1
3.1.1
3.1.2
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
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iv
3.2.3 44
3.2.4 44
3.2.5 45
3.2.6 45
3.2.7 47
3.2.8 47
3.3 484. 53
4.1 55
4.1.1 55
4.1.2 55
4.1.3 55
4.2 59
4.2.1 59
4.2.2 60
4.2.3 60
4.2.4 63
4.3 674.3.1 67
4.3.2 69
4.3.3 69
4.3.4 69
4.4 69
4.4.1 69
4.4.2 69
4.4.3 70
4.4.4 71
4.5 73
4.5.1 73
4.5.2 73
4.5.3 74
4.6 74
4.6.1 74
4.6.2 75
5. 77
5.1 79
5.1.1 79
5.1.2 79
5.1.3 81
5.1.4 85
5.2 85
5.2.1 85
5.2.2 85
5.2.3 87
5.2.4 88
5.3 90
5.3.1 90
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5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
5.4
5.4.1
5.4.2
5.4.3 5.4.4
5.5
5.5.1
5.5.2
5.5.3
5.5.4
5.6
5.6.1
5.6.2
5.6.3
5.7 5.7.1
5.7.2
5.7.3
5.7.4
5.8
5.8.1
5.8.2
5.8.3
6.
6.1
6.2
6.2.1 (CCS)
6.2.2
6.2.3
6.2.4
6.2.5
6.2.6
6.2.7
6.2.8 ()
6.2.9 ()
6.2.10
6.2.11
6.2.12
6.2.13
6.3
6.3.1
6.3.2
6.3.3
6.3.4
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vi
6.3.5 123
6.3.6 124
6.3.7 124
6.4 124
7. 125
7.1 127
7.2 1287.3 130
7.4 130
8. 133
8.1 135
8.2 135
8.2.1 135
8.2.2 136
8.3 136
139
1: 165
2: 1673: 183
4: 185
5: 187
6: 191
193
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(IPCC)
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viii
Norah Pritchard Clair Hanson
Terry Prowse
Maurice RoosBill Girling
Marilyn Anderson Nancy Boston
2008623
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Bryson Bates(), Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz()()
Nigel ArnellVirginia Burkett()Petra Dll()Daniel Gwary()C
Hanson()BertJan HeijBlanca Elena Jimnez()Georg Kaser()A
KitohSari KovatsPushpam KumarChristopher H.D. Magadza
Daniel MartinoLuis Jos Mata/Mahmoud Medany
Kathleen Miller()Taikan Oki()Balgis Osman()Jean Palutikof()T
Prowse()Roger Pulwarty(/)Jouni Risnen()James Renw
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6 http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session21.htm.
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26
30%
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10%
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28
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[WGI10.18]
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2.3.4
(Trenberth2003)[WGI 10.9
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30
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[WGII 3.4.1]
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66%,90%(Milly,2005)(
SYR3.5WGII3.4)
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2.3.7
/(NAM/
NAO)(SAM)
[WGI TS10.3.5.610.3.6.4]
SST
[WGI SPM10.3.6.3]
(ENSO)
ENSO
[WGI TS10.3.5.310.3.5.4]
()(
[WGI 10.3.5.1]
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-
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3
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3.1
3.1.1
3.1.1.1
(Kaser2003Box2006)
(HaeberliBurn2002)
(Bindoff2007)
(Larsen2005)
()
(Jansson2003)
[WGI 4.6.2; WGII 1.3.1.1]
(LIA)
(
5.4)
(GLOF)
(Yamada 1998)(Ames1998)
[WGII
1.3.1.1]
(Watson
Haeberli2004Mlg2005)5.10
Chacaltaya
,
,
(Rivera2005)[WGII
1.3.1.1]
3.1.1.2
65
12
[WGII 1.3.1.1]
(YoshikawaHinzman2003)(5.12)(Smith2005)
(Beaulie
Allard2003)[WGII 1.3.1.115]
3.1.2
3.1.2.1
20
ENSONAO
[WGII 1.3.2.1]
(Tao 2
abHyvarinen2003W
2004 )
(Milly 2005 ) Lab
(2004)201C
4%
(Leg
2005)Gedney(2006)
CO2CO2
(Douglas2000)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
2
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48/214
36
(Chen2002)
(Petheram2001)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
[WGII 3.210.4.2]
(2003)
34(FergusonGeorge2003)
[WGII 1.3.2, 3.2]
()
()(
)()
()
(Smith
2005)(12)
(Mueller2003)Le Treut
(2007)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
3.1.2.2
[WGII 1.3.2] ,
(
)[WGII 1.3.4]
, [WGII
1.3.2][WGII Box 4.1]
,
()[WGII
3.2]
(3.1)
2.1.2Le Treut (2007)
[WGII 1.3.4.41.21.6]
1960
0.2C2.0C1900
(EdwardAlbertKivuVicto
riaTanganyikaMalawi)(
)0.2C0.7C
2023
[WGII 1.3.2.3]
(Karst-Riddoch2005)
(
)(Blais200
)[WGII 1.3.2.3]
( 3.1
WGII
SM1.3)
(Sommaruga-Wograth 1997Rogora
2003)pH
(PsennerSchmidt1992)
11%13%(Vesely
2003)
(Bodaly1993)
27
[WGII 1.3.2.3
[WGII 3.2]
12
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49/214
3.1.2.3
(GLOF 5.4)
/
(
), (/
()
/(
)
[WGII 3.4.3]
(KronBerz2007
)
[WGII 3.2]
20
[WGI SPM-2]
10(1996-2005)
19501980
(Kron
Berz2007)
1.4(WDR20032004)
199870%(
2025%)(Mirza2003ClarkeKing2
)[WGII 3.2]
(Mills2005)
(Huntington2006)[WGII 3.4.3]
[WGI SPM3.8,
Milly(2002)
(>100)Kundzewicz(2005)(27
(31 )
195137
[WGII 1.3.2.2]
/ 5%2590%
19351999 Ob, L
Yenisey, Mackenzie
12 19362000
(0.51%)
29%
18471996
19982004
0.11.5C 40 (100)
()0.20.7C 100 (6)
100
(8)
1020 (88)
3.1//[WGII1.3]
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50/214
38
3.1.2.4
()
()
()(
)
[WGII 3.4.3]
2070
2070
[WGI SPM-2]
Palmer(PDSI)(Dai
2004b)[WGII 3.3.4]
[WGI 3.ES, 3.3.4]
Dai(2004b)PDSI20
50
(
3.1)2070
2060 90 1974
199819482002
20-30
20
70(
PDSI3.0)(~12%30%)
ENSO80
(Dai
2004b)[WGI 3.3.4]
[WGII 11.2.1] [WGII
14.2.1](Nicholson2005)
[WGII 3.2]
2003
(Schr2004)300
30%(Ciais2005)
()
(BenistonDiaz,2004Zebisch,2005)
(Fink2004)[WGII 12.6.1]
3.2
3.2.1
(
)
,
(,
)[WGII 3.3.1]
2.3
3.2.1.1
(
)
[WGII 15.4.1]
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13()PDSI
3.119002002Palmer(PDSI)()P
()
()131900
()()
)
19002002PDSI67%
(Dai2004b)[WGI FAQ 3.2]
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52/214
40
[WGII 3.4.2]
(3.2)
(2%,
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SRES A2DllFlrke, 2005)
(ECHAM4HadCM3 GCM
SRES A2B214)
215070%
215030%
3.2(19611990)2150(20412070)
30WGHM(ECHAM4
HadCM3SRES A2B2)(DllFlrke2005)[WGII3.5]
14 I
1961-90
1961-90
*1961-90
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53/214
[WGII 3.4.2]
(EckhardtUlbrich2003
Brouyere
2004)
(Ogallala)
20%2.5C
(Rosenberg1999)[WGII 14.4]
[WGII 3.4.2]
3.2.1.2
2.3.121
[WGI 10.3.5, 10.3.6; WGII3.4.3] 3.2
,PalmerRisnen(2002)
,
,CO2
()
(PalmerRisnen2002)
Milly(2002)CO2
1615
()
25
(Zhang2005)[WGII 3.4.3]
,2C,
23%29%(Mirza2
)[WGII 3.4.3]
a
SRES
21
[4.4, 5.4]
[3.4]
[8.2]
[7.4]
/
a 3.7
3.221
21
IPCC SRES[WGISPM-2WGIISPM-2]
-
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54/214
42
15
[WGII 3.4.3]
()
(Reynard2004)[WGII 3.4.3]
3.2.1.3
[WGI SPM]
[WGI 10.ES]
SRES A22190
10302
6(Burke2006)[WGI 10.3.6; WGII 3.4.3
()
Douville2002Christensen2007)
[WGII 3.4.3] 3.3
2170
15()()16 1%10%
3.319611990(Lehner2005)[WGII
3.6]
-
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55/214
16
10(Lehner,2005)[WGII
3.4.3]
3.2
,
(Barnett2005),
,
(Ramrez2001 5.5),
,
(Barnett2005)[WGII3.4.3]
3.2.1.4
(Hall2002Kumagai
2003)(
2001)
[WGII 3.ES]
3C4C
(Nicholls1999)
/
[WGII 4.4.8, 14.4.1]
( )(Leemans
Kleidon2002)(Mimikou
2000Neff 2000 Bouraoui 2004
)
()
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGII 3.4.4,
14.4.1] ()
[W
3.4.2]
[WGII 3.4.4]
2050-
13%19%(Pittock2003)
[W
11.4]
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGII 3.4.2]
0.1
103628(Bobba2
)
(Chen2004)[W
3.4.2]
3.2.1.5
[WGII 3.4.
[WGII 3
14.4.1]
[WGII 3.4.5]
[WGII 3.4.5]
[WGII 3.4.5]
3.2.2
(2003)
()
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56/214
44
(IWRM)17(2002
2004a2006)
[WGII 3.3.2]
3.2.3
2.1.62.3.1
3.2.1
(2000)
/
(Miller1997)[WGII 3.5]
(Magrin 2005 ) [WGII
13.2.4]
5060
(Kharkina2004)
[WGII3.5]
(MillerYates2006
[WGII 3.5.1]
3.2.4
/
(Dll,2002Dll2003)
IPCC SRES A2B2
2020
+2%+15%
6%+5%(Dll,2002Dll2003)
21201%3%
21702%7%
B2[WGII 3.5.1]
,
,25%
15%
(EheartTornil1999)
CO2[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)
21505%(Mote
1999Downing2003)
25C
111(
2%)(Protopapas2000)[WGII 3.5.1]
17 IWRM1992 (1)
(2) (3)
(4)
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3.2.5
, (Vrsmarty,2000
Alcamo , 2003a,b,2007 Oki , 2003
Arnell,2004),
2150IPCC SRES
(Arnell2004)
(3.3)2150
SRESA2
A1B1,,
(OkiKanae,2006
)
(Arnell2004)
[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)(Alcamo 2007)
()
215020%29%
62%76%
(SRESA2B2)
(Alcamo2007)[WGII 3.5.1]
3.2.6
()
()
/
[WGII 3.5.1]
(
2000)
(Barnett2005)
2150
5%12%
(Middelkoop2001)
2150
(KrysanovaWechsung2002)
(Krysanova2005)[WGII 3.5.1]
()
()(Kirshen2005a)
[WGII 3.5.1]
21
16%30%21
9030%45%
(
)2%(C
2050(10)
Arnell (2004) Alcamo (2007)
1995: 1.4 1.6
2050: A2 4.45.7 6.46.9
2050: B2 2.84.0 4.95.2
3.32050(1,000 m3/)
[WGII3.2]
-
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58/214
46
2001)[WGII 3.5.1]
1.00/m30.60/m3
(ZhouTol2005)0.02
/m3
(FAO2003)
(4.4.4
)[WGII 3.5.1]
(Mileti1999 Pielke
Downton 2000 Changnon 2005 )
(Schiermeier2006)[WGII 3.5.2]
20
CO2(Schreider
2000)[WGII 3.5.2]
ChoiFisher(2003)
13.5%21.5%
( )
13.5%
140%
82%
89%[WGII 3.5.2]
IS92a(Kirshen
2005b)
2100
[WGII 3.5.2]
2180
SRES (Hal
2005)
218050
B1
10B215
B1B2
A12150
1502180210(Evan
2004Hall2005)[WGII 3.5.2]
1921502634(Middelkoop2001)[WGII 3.5.1]
2170 20
15%30%(IS92a)
19%( ) 100%(
(Lehner 2005)
20%50%
10%()39%(Lehne
2005)(20%)21
707%12%[WGII 3.5.1
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59/214
(Lofgren2002)CGCM1
2C
25%35%2002
2.43.5 (Buttle2004
)HadCM218
(+3%)2500
2C
1%17%(LOSLR2006)[WGII 3.5.1]
3.2.7
3.4
(IWRM17)
(GWP2002E
Lemos2006)[WGII 3.7]
3.2.8
(Dll2003Arnell,2004
(Prudhomme 2003
(Kaspar2003)
18 1
3.4,1Bobba(2000
2Barnet(2004)3DllFlrke(2005)4Mirza(2003)5Lehner(2005)6Kistemann(2
),7PorterSemenov(2005),2.10(19801999)20902099SRESA1B
(%)(Milly2005)()()[WGII3.8SYR3.5]
2020
2070
25%
2050
70%
2040-2080
0.1
25
10
25%
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60/214
48
3.4
(Kay2006a)
GCM
PrudhommeDavies(2006)
[WGII 3.3.1]
(Arnell(2004)Jasper(2004)),
[WGII 3.3.1]
GCM
[WGII 3.3.1]
[WGII 3.3.1]
GCM
GCM
()[WGI TAR
10]
(Diaz- NietoWilby2005)
(Wilby
Harris2006)
[WGII 3.3.1]
(Changnon 2005 Schlenker 2005
Young2005)[WGII 3.5]
[WGII 3.6.1]
[WGI
12.2.2]
3.4
(3.5)[WGII 3.6.1]
[WGII 13.5.1.3]
[WGII 9.6.2.1, 9.5.19.2]
[WGII 3.2, 3.6.5, 17.2.2]
(Klijn2001Richardson2002)
(ArnellDelaney2006
) [WGI
3.6.5, 17.2.2]
()
3.3
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()
3.5
3.5
[WGII 17.2, 18.1, 18.5, 20.3, 20.8]
[WGII 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 17.3]
[WGII 17.4.2]
(a).
[WGII 3.6.4]
(b).
[WGII 3.6.4]
(c).
(d).
(
2004 Naess 2005 CrabbRobin2006)
[WGII 3.6.4]
(e).
[WGII 17.4.2.4]
(Wilby2006)
(Beuhler2
SimonovicLi2003)
(ArnellDelaney200
(Dessai2005)
(J
Page2001)
(Wilb
Harris2006)[WGII 3.6.4]
(Stakhiv1998)
()
3.4()[WGII3.5]
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62/214
50
/
WGII 9.5, 9.2
/
WGII 10.5,
10.8
WGII 10.5.2
/
WGII 11.2,
11.2, 11.2;
5.2
WGII 12.5.1
WGII 13.2.5.3,
13.2, 13.5.1
/ WGII 14.2.4
/ WGII 14.5.1
2.5
WGII 15.6.2
/
WGII 15.2.2.2
WGII 16.4.1
16.5
3.5
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(
Beuhler2003)
(Klijn2004Olsen2006
)[WGII 3.6.4]
3.3.1
(IWRM17)
(Moench2003)
(2005)
(3.6)[WGII 3.6.1
14.2]
()
3.6(PulwartyMelis2001)[WGII3.4]
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64/214
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65/214
4
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4.1
4.1.1
(Burkett2005)
WGI AR43
[WGI3.14]19002005
[WGI 3.3.5]
4.1.2
IPCCSRESB1A1A220300.5C2CB1
(GCM)
[WGI10.810.12]
[WGI 10.3.6.1]
[WGI 10.18]
WGI AR4 21(2)
[WGII 1.3,4.2] Root(2003)143
2080%
[WGII 1.4.1]
(
)
(RootSchneider2Burkett2005)[WGII 1.3.5.54.2.2
(Pounds2006)[W4.1]
[W9.1]
[WGII 13.4.1]
(
2005b)[WGII 3.5.1]
4.1.3
4.1.3.1
()
(
)
[WGII TAR 4.3.7]
2[WGI T
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68/214
56
SPM]
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGI1011]
[CCB 4.4]
20C
[CCB 6.2] [WGII 4.2.2] (
)[RICC 2.3.6]
()
[CCB 6.7]
(Declerck2005)IPCC AR4GCM
[WGI 11.3.3.2]
(lvarez Cobelas2005)[WGII 12.4.6]
4.1.3.2
(
)
()
(Keddy2000)[WGII 4.4.8]
(Gorham1991)
[WGII TAR 5.8.3]
[WGII TAR 5.ES]
(WinterWoo1990)
(Woo1993)[WGII TAR 5.8.2.1] [WGII TAR5.8.4]
[WGII 4.4.8]
()
[WGII 4.4.8] TAR( )[WGII TAR 5.8.5] AR4(
)[WGII 4.4.84.4.10
[WGII 4.4.8
[WGII TAR 5.8.4]
[WGII 1.3]
(Hinzman2005Walsh2005)
-
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69/214
(YoshikawaHinzman2003)(GavrilievEfremov2003)[WGI 4.7.2.3]
[WGII 15.4.1.3]
(ColemanHuh2004)[WGII 15.6.2]
(Keddy2000Burkettkusler2000)
(Bauder2005)
(ChauhanGopal2001)[WGII 4.4.8]
4.1.3.3
[WGII 6.4.1.3]
[WGII 6.4.1.4]
[WGI 5.5.2]
(
)
(Nilsson2005
)
2,000210(Jiongxin2003)
(Syvistki2005)21[WGII 6.4]
Milly(2005)50100
[WGII 6.3.22.10]
1950(Williams1)(Krauss200050(Ross2000)(SaintilanWilliams1999[WGII 6.4
[W6.4.1.39.4.410.4.111.4.2]
(Li2004Syvitski2005Eri2006)[WGII 6.2.36.4.1]
197820001,565
(Barras2003)[WGII 6.4.1]
(Scavia2002)
(Moore1997)
(Justic2005)[W6.4.1.3]
4.1.3.4
(Williams,2003Pound
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
70/214
58
Puschendorf,2004Andreone2005Pounds2006),[WGII 4.4.7]
,
[WGII 1.3.5.2,4.4.7,9.4.5]
[WGII 1.3.2]1949200474%(Knowles2006)2070
(BrownBraaten1998)
(Groisman2004)195041(SWE)1530%
(Mote2005)2002194814(Stewart2005)[WGII14.2.1]
(Keller2005
Monson2006) (Krner,1999)(Keller2005)
(Inouye2000)
[WGII 4.4.7] 1C
[WGII 12.4.3]
[WGII1.3.1,3.2,3.4.3]
4.1.3.5
[WGII45.1.213.4]40%(RowellMoore2000)GCM100678(20%)1212(5%)[WGI 11.6.3.2]
[WGII 13.4.2]
()
[WGII 4.4.5]
[WGII 4.4.34.4.5]
[WGII 4.4.3
(Tuchman2003)
[WGII 4.4.10]
50%10%(Fay2003a)[WGII 4.4.3]
-
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71/214
4.2.1
[WGII 5.2.1]
(FAO2003)[WGII 5.2.2]
[WGII5.2.25.25.3]
[WGII 5.2.2]
4.2.1.1
80%
(FAO2003)[WGII 5.4.1.2]
(FAO2003)
,
18%,10,,
2319(FAO,2003)
(Rosenzweig2002)[WGII 5.4.2.1]
4.2
191.3()5.1.3()5.2.3
(FAO2003)[WGII 5.35.6.5]
[WGII 32015 [WGII 5.6.5]
(Rosenzweig2002)[W5.6.5]
GCM[W5.4.1.2]
()
(2.10)4.1
[WGII 5.3.1]
4.2.1.2
40
2(FAO2003)[WGII 4.4.55.1.1,5.
,
,(1LinigerWeingartner,1998) [LULU2.5.1.1.4WGII 4.1.1]
,
(Harding
Lean,1996),,(Kramer,1PattanayakKramer, 2000) [LULU2.5.1.1.6]
(Harding1992Bl1994)
-
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60
(Chan1986GashShuttleworth1991Meher-Homji1992)[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.6]
(KirschbaumFischlin1996Sala2000Gitay2001)
(Scheffer,2001Sankaran,2005)[WGII4.1, 4.4.5]
[WGII 4.2] 210025%()
[WGII 4.ES4.4.8]
[WGII 9.2.1.4]
4.2.2
4.2.2.1
(Easterling2003)[WGII 1.3.6]
[WGII 1.3.61.3.95.2]
4.2.2.2
C3()
[WGII TAR 5.3.3.1]
(
)
[WGII TAR 5.3.3.1]
TAR
(Thomas2003Bake2004Caldwell2005)
450ppm0.8C1.5C[WGI5.4.1.2]
[WGII 5.4.15.8.2]
4.2.3
21
(FAO2003)
-
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73/214
[WGII 5.8.1]
(
)
[WGII 5.ES]90%21 [WGI SPM],
[WGI 11.3,11.4,11.7]
[WGII 5.4.15.4.2]
2100 [WGII 3
]
(4.1b)(
4.1b)[WGII 5.3.1]
SI>5 SI>0 SI>85 SI>70 SI>55SI>40 SI>40SI25
4.1(a)()(Fischeretal.2002b)SI=[WG
5.1a];(b)(19801999)20902099[SYR3.5]
[WGII 5.3.2.2]
4.2.3.1
3C)
(12C)
[WGII 5.ES]
[WGII 5.ES]
TAR
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62
205014%83%(2005a, b)
[WGII 3.5.1]
[WGII 5.8.2]
4.2.3.2
[WGII 5.4.3.1]
(ENSO)ENSO
[WGII 5.4.3.1] WGI TARENSO
WGI AR4ENSO[WGI TAR SPMWGI 10.3.5.4]
(4.1)(
)[WGII 5.4.3.2]
[WGI5.4.3.2]
4.2.3.3
Rosenzweig(2002)(
)203030 /
[WGII 5.4.2.1]
Dll(2002)
2070()5%8%
(+15%)[WGII 5.4.2.1]
Fischer(2006)208020%
Fischer(2006)Arnell(2004)(
)
(Abou-Hadid2003
)(Tao2003a)/[WGII 5.4.2.1]
(
)
2030(Reilly2003Thomson2005a)
[WGII 3.5.1]
FAO203014%(Bruinsma2003)
20300%6%20500%10%[WGII3.5.1]
-
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pH
4.1
[WGII 5.4.6.1]
[WGII 5.4.6.1]
4.2.4
(
)
()
[W3.5.1]
/
/(
[WGII 5.5]
4.2.4.1
4.1 [WGII5.3]
( PDRGDP10%1,000(MRC2003)250(HortleBush2003)30%
(
)
(Hoanh2004)3541%16%19%(196119902010203820702099)17%24%
26%29%()(2004b)
2025()(Wassmann2004)
-
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76/214
64
//()
4.2
[WGII 5.4.7]
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 5.5.1]
4.2: [WGII5.5]
( Ellis1995)(Ndikumana2000HendyMorton2001Oba2001McPeakBarrett2001Morton2006)
/
(
)
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 5.8.1]
-
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77/214
/
[WGII 5.1.1]
4.2.4.2
(),
()()[WGII 5.5]
[WGII 5.4.7]
2020
(EheartTornil1999)[WGII 3.5.1]
(Huffaker2005
)[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)(
4.3)
4.2.4.3
)
()
()
[WGII 5.6.5]
[WGII 5.6.5]
[WGII
4.3:[WGII5.6]
()
(Drennen1993Kishor19Pilon-Smits1995Cheikh2000)
(SinclairPurcell2005)
-
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78/214
66
[WGII 5.6.5]
4.2.4.4
(Lipp2001Jimnez,2003Maya2003WHO2004)
(Magadza2000Kashyap2004Pachauri2004)
(WHO/UNICEF2000)[WGII 3.4.4]
10%()
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 3.4.4]
4.2.4.5
[WGII 5.7]
[LULUCF 4.5.1]
(Mills1994)
(Brklacich1997)[WGII TAR15.2.3.1]
(Conde1997)[WGII TAR 14.2.2.1]
[WGII TAR 12.5.6]
20,00050,000
[WGII TAR 10.2.1.2]
(
)
[WGITAR 10.2.1.2]
70%(FAO2006)
[WGII TAR 11.2.4.4]
14
[WGII TAR 11.2.3.2]
4.2.4.6
-
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79/214
()
[WGIII 8.58.9]
/
()
[WGIII 12.1.412.1.4]
(RosenzweigTubiello2007)[WGII5.4.2WGIII 8.5]
4.3.1
[WGII 8.1.1]
4.24.4[WGII 8.4.2.3]
50
20155(MDG)
4.3
[WGII 8.1.1]
(WHO)UNICEF11(17%)
120
42%WHO170
()
[WGII 9.2.2]
[WGII 8.2.2]
)
[WGII 8.2.58.4.2.2]
4.3.1.1
-
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80/214
68
2003
(SenhorstZwolsman2005)
[WGII 8.2.5]
(ParkinsonButler2005)
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 14.2.58.2.5]
()
[WGII 8.2.43.4.4]
(Checkley2000Singh2001Vasilev2003Lama2004)
[WGII 8.2.5]
4.3.1.2
(GLOF)(3.2)[WGII3.4.3]
[WGII 8.2.2]
,
[WGII 8.2.216.4.5]
()
[WGII 8.2.2]
4.3.1.3
()
()
[WGII 8.2.3.1]
4.3.1.4
[WGII 8.2.6.4]
4.3.1.5
()
()
[WGII 8.2.8]
[WGII 8.2.3.1]
(
)
[WGII 8.2.8.3]
-
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4.3.2
[WGII7]
(
)[WGII 1.3]
4.3.3
20
(Rockstrom2003) [WGII 8.2.58.4.2.2]
4.3.4
[WGII 8.6]
[WGII 8.6.3]
[WGII 8.6.4]
4.24.3
4.4.1
4.3.1
4.4.2
4.1
4.4
(Sutherst2004)
(SteenvooEndreny2004)()
[WGII 8.6.43.4.4]
-
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82/214
70
4.1:/[WGII3]
4.4.3
a.
b. (du Plessis2003)
c. d. e.
f. (Chen2004)
20204172050102020801132(Arnell2004)
SRES[WGII 3.23.5.1]
1()(
2003)[WGI3.4.4]
/
(
)
()[WGII 3.3.28.6.4]
[WGII 3.4.414.4.1]
[WGII 3.4]
(Kovats2005Eb2006)
100
(MillerYates2006)[WGII 3.5.1]
/
(Ames1998KaserOsmaston2002)
()
-
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83/214
[WGII 3.5.1]
()
(Nchito1998Kang2001)
(Jimnez2003)
[WGII 3.23.4.48.2.5]
(
2001)
(PCB())[WGII 3.4.4]
(SmallNicholls20032005b)[WGII 3.23.4.2]
(
)
(AlcamoHenrichs2002RPrudhomme2002)[WGII 3.3.23.5.1]
4.4.4
(Har2005)
(Ruostee2003)505[WGII 7.4.2.3.1]
2050)
[WGII 3.3]
[W3.53.6]
WHO(2005)(W
-
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84/214
72
1 /0.60/(ZhouTol2005)0.02 /
[WGII 7.5]
[WGII 3.5.1]
[WGII3.3.2]
(
)
[WGII 7.4.2.3]
(
)
(
)
[WGII 3.5.1]
()
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGI3.4.38.6.4]
()
[WGI3.6]
-
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85/214
(Shepherd2002Klein2003
2004Sherbinin2006)
(
)
(UNWWAP20032006Faruqui2001UNDP2006)
(AlcamoHenrichs2002RagabPrudhomme2002)[WGII 6.4.220.3]
[WGII 6.4.27.4.2.4] (
)
(ElsasserBurki2002Hayhoe2004)[WGII 7.4.312.4.9]
[WGII 3.4.33.57.4.2.3]
4.5.1
1124(WHO/UNICEF2000)
(UN-HABITAT2003UNCHS20032006UNDP2006)
4.5 25%1998
(Faruqui2001
[W3.5.1]
(2005b)[WGII 7.4]
[WGII 7.4.2.4] [WGII 6.4.1.2]
(Sma
Nicholls20032005b)
4.5.2
4.5.2.1
(
)
(ArkellDarch2006)
(Suarez 2005
(Kirshen2006)[W7.4.2.3.3]
100(Shukla2)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]
4.5.2.2
(
(Bigio20032003)
-
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74
(20012003)[WGII 7.4.2.4]
(GravesPhillipson2000)(SandersPhillipson
2003)(Kharkina2004)[WGII 3.5]
(2004)[WGII 7.6.4]
4.5.2.3
(Hareau1999Lewsey2004Kumar2006)
21001300(Zeidler1997)11700170
[WGII 6.36.46.5]
4.5.2.4
(
)
(3.211092.07
109
)(780613)(HarrisonWhittington2002)(WhittingtonGundry1998Magadza2000)IS92a217020
15%30%19%()100%()(Lehner2005
)[WGII 3.5] ()
[WGII 7.5] ()
(EEA2005)
4.5.3
(
)[WGII 3.6]
[WGII 3.5]
4.6.1
[WGII 7.1.3]
2070
[WGII 1.3.8.5]
10%
4.6
-
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87/214
(
)
[WGII TAR 8.2.3]
4.6.2
(Kirshen2006)101(1300)
(Compton2002)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]
()
(
)[WGII 7.4.2.1]
()
(
1998)[WGII 7.4.2.2.4]
()(UNEP/GRID-Arend2002)[WGII 7.4.2.2]
(Br1999Uyarra2005)()
()
[WGII 7.4.2.2.3])[W
11.4.9.12.4.9.14.4.7]
[WGII 7.4.2.2.2
[WGII 18.5]
[WGII 17.2.3]
-
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88/214
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
89/214
5
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
90/214
-
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91/214
5.1
201212223(1990)1000
5.1.1
Arnell(2004)IPCC
SRESHadCM3202050
,
,(
2.82.9),
,,
[WGI 11.2,11.1;WGII 9.4.1]
202521,
,1000 / /
221000-1700 / /,
4.6
,(UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002)23
,
,,
200047%2025
65%(Ashton,2002),
[WGII 9.2,9.4]
,
,,
,2020,
0.32%,
0.6%(New,2002)
,Conway(2005),
,
,
[WGII
9.4.2]
,
,
,1993-1997,1
1998(,
),1997
(Mercier,2002)
(
5.1)[WGII 9.2.1.1,1.3.2.3]
(mm)
()
()
5.1
()(b)(600)(c)
](OReilly2003)2003[WGII1.2]
5.1.2
5.1.2.1
(,Dai,2004a),
-
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80
(,ENSOAMO)2050
60,207090
(79)9
2030,
(5.2)
1982/83,
[WGI 3.7.4],
(
),
[WGI 9.5.4]
5.1.2.2
25%,
69%
(Vrsmarty,2005),
,,,20
90,2000
62%(WHO/
UNICEF,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]
,
(,2000),
,2060,
,2060
,,19311960
30,1968-199020
40%(Nicholson,2000;ChappellAgnew,2004;Da
,2004a)ENSO
,(NAO)
(NicholsonSelato,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]
5.1.2.3
(Warren,2006)[WGII 9.4.2] ,
70%,
,,
51%8%
,99%80%
[WGII 9.2.2.8]
5.1.2.4
;
5.2:1920-2003(10N20N 18W20E)
(4-10)(Dai2004a))()
()[WGI3.37]
-
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(Hay,2002a;Craig
,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
,
(Thomson,2005b)
(Thomson,2006)
(DaSilva,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
,(Hay
,2002a,b;Shanks,2002),
,
,(Patz,2002)
2070,
,(Pascual
,2006),
,,
(Craig,2004)
HIV(Craig
,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
(-)
(Bouma,2003)
3-4
(GithekoNdegwa,2001)
50208090
,
(Abeku,2003)
,
,
(Zhou,2004,2005),
(Hay,2005)[WGII
8.2.8.2]
,
,
,
,
(Kosek,2003)
,,(Nc
,1998;Kang,2001)[WGII 8.2.5,9.2.2.6]
5.1.2.5 ,G
GDP
,,21%(10%7
(Mendelsohn,2000b)GDP
,,,
,
,
,
(Mendelsohn,2000a,b;Stige,20
[WGII 9.2.1.3]
5.1.2.6
[WGII 9]
,
(
5.1)
,
(UNEP/GR
Arendal,2002),
,207090,
20
25-35(Gonzalez,2001)
/
;(ECF
,2004)[WGII 9.2.1.4]
5.1.3
5.1.3.1 2025,
20,
[WGII 9.4.1]
SRES
20202050,
7500~2.53.5~6
(Arnell,2004),
-
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82
(Arnell,2004),2055,
(5.4),
,
(Arnell,2006a)[WGII 3.2,3.2,
3.4,9.4.1,9.3]
,
,
,,
[WGII 3.4.2,3.5]
5.1: [WGII 9.1]
20(5.35.1)1976150(Hemp2005)
5.3: (Hemp2005)
1976 (km2
) 2000 (km2
) (%)
1066 974 -9
187 32 -83
202 257 +27
69 218 +216
90 44 -51
5.1:(Hemp2005)
1
,,
10%(Agoumi,2003)[WGII 9.4.1,3.2,3.4.2]
5.1.3.2
,
,,
(Riebsame
,1995;Salewicz,1995)[WGII TAR 10.2.11,
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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10.1]
5.1.3.3
,
(MARA/ARMA)202020502080
(Thomas,2004)
20502080,
(
,Hartmann,2002),2100,
,
[WGII 9.4.3]
,
1997/98
,,(3.2.1.2)
,
(;Warren,2006)[WGI
11.1,11.2.3;WGII 9.4.3,5.4.3.1]
5.1.3.4
(Thor
,2006)
2100,90%,
,
(Benhin,2006)[WGII 9.4.4]
5.2
,
,
,,
,
(Thornton,2006),
,
,(P
,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]
,,
( Cur
Shannon,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]
(
Mendelsohn,2006)14%
9%(-50)[WGII 9.4.4]
2055 2055
5.4: 1961-1990()(Arnell2006b)
1000m3//HadCM3
[WGII9.3]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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5.1.3.5
5000,
2050,
,(
,
)51-61%(2800)
,2%
,,
,
,
,
(5.3)[WGII 4.4,9.4.5,9.1]
,
5.2: [WGII 9.2]
200070km
3(Gueye2005)
85%GDP20%70%(El-Gindy2001)
(EPIQ2002ICID2005)2017
(Wahab2005)
(Abou-Hadid2006Eid2006)
( Attaher2006)
20501.15-1.79SRES
( Conway2005)
5.3: [WGII 4.1]
19902.5-3.0 C
2459%
2840%
1370%
1880%
2145%
66%
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
97/214
,
[WGII 9.3.1]
,/
,
,
[WGII 9.4.5]
,
,
,[WGII 4.4.3] ,
25-40%
[WGII 9.4.5]
5.1.4
,,
(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1]
[WGII 9.4.1]
25%(2)
,(
5.1.3.1)[WGII 9.ES] ,
,,,2025
,
[WGII 9.4.1] ,
,,
,
[WGII 9.5.2]
ENSO,
[WGI 3.7.4,3.6.4,11.2]
,ENSO,
;
;
;
(Glantz,2001)[WGII 17.2.2]
,
,()[WGII 9.2.1]
(Agoumi,2003;
Conway,2005),
(,de Wit
Stankiewicz,2006)[WGII 9.4.1]
,
,
,
(Osman-Elasha,2006)
,
[W
9.5.1,17.1]
,
,
,
,
(St
2007)[WGII 9.5.2]
5.2
5.2.1 ,
43
203000,
1000-3000,6100
(6)(FAO,2004a
c)[WGII 10.1] ,
[WGII 10.2] ,/
,
,,
,
[WGII 10.2]
5.2.2
5.2.2.1 ,
()
,
,2
,
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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86
(TrenberthHoar,1997;Aldhous,2004),
[WGI
3.3.2,3.7.1;WGII 10.2.2,10.2.3]
,
,
, (Zhai ,1999;Khan ,2000;Shres tha
,2000;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Mirza,2002;Kajiwara
, 2003 ;La l 2003 ;Min , 2003 ;Ruos teeno ja
, 2 0 0 3 ; Z h a i P a n , 2 0 0 3 ; G r u z a
Rankova,2004;Zhai,2004),,
, (Manton
,2001;Kanai,2004;)[WGII 10.2.3]
,
,
,ENSO (Webster ,1998; Duong,2000;PAGASA,2001;Lal,2002,
2003;Batima, 2003;GruzaRankova,2004;Natsagdorj
,2005)[WGI3.6;WGII 10.2.3]
[WGI 4.7.2]
,
,
(Osterkamp ,2000;Guo
,2001;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Jorgenson,2001;Izrael
,2002;FedorovKonstantinov,2003;Gavriliev
Efremov,2003;MelnikovRevson,2003;Nelson,2003;Tu
merbaatar,2003;ACIA,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
,2060
(2.6)[WGI 4.5.2] ,
,,/
- ,-
(Hewitt,2005)[WGI 4.5.3] ,
,
(Bhadra,2002;WWF,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
5.5
(1780)
, ,
,
, ,
,
,[WGII 10.6.2]
,
,,
,
,
,
-
-,
(Abu-Taleb,2000;RagabPrudhomme,2002;Bou
ZeidEl-Fadel,2002;UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002),ENSO
,,
,
(Manton, 2001)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
5.5: 1780()(20099NASA EROS)[WGII10.6]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
99/214
5.2.2.2 ,
,
(Wijeratne,1996;Agarwal
,2000;Jin,2001;Fischer,2002a;Tao,2003a,2004)
[WGII 10.2.4.1]
5.2.2.3 ,
,,
(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)
,
,,
(Zhang,2003)[WGII 10.2.4.4]
,
1999-2001,
,
(Pan,2003)[WGII
10.2.4.4]
5.2.3
5.2.3.1 ,
,,
(Peterson,2002)
()
,CO2
,GCM1.2C,
15%,
(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)
35-41%,
16-19%,1961-1990,2010-
2038,2070-2099
,17-24%,
26-29%(Hoanh,2004)[WGII 5.3],
,,
[WGII 10.4.2.1]
,
,
,
(Iafazova,1997)[WGII 10.4.2.1]
,
10-20(Shen,2003
,2003;Thanh,2004)
,
(Hu,2001)
0.4-1.0
1-3(HuangXie,2000)
(Xu,2003;Thanh,2004;Huang,200
[W
10.4.2.1,10.4.3.2]
,
,
,,
,,(Batima,2004,2005) [W
10.4.2,10.6]
,
[WGII 10.4.2,10.6]
1961-1990,2050,
27%
10-15%,
(Qin,2002),
,
,,
,
20%-40%(Tao,2005),
Hig
(2006),SRES AlB,2050-2300
,()1.1
[WGII 10.4.2.3]
,
20011820m3/20501140m(GuptaDeshpande,2004),
2025,
1000m3(CWC,2001)
,
,
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
100/214
88
,
,
,SRES,212050,
1.2-121.85-9.81
(Arnell,2004)21,
13-19%,16-24%,
(ADB,1994) [WGII
10.4.2]
5.2.3.2 (
),
(,2002)[WGII 10.4.2]
5.2.3.3 1C,
1 0%( F i s c h e r
,2002a;Liu,2002)Tao(2003b)
,
,,
,2.8
2.10,
,
,
70%(Liu
,2001;Qin,2002)[WGII 10.4.1]
[WGII 10.4.1.2]
5.2.4
,
,
,
,
[WGII 10.2.4,10.4,10.6]
,
,
,
,
,
,,
(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1] ,
,
,(
)
(5.4)[WGII 17.2,17.5,16.5]
,()
(Wang,2003),
(Frolov,2004)
[WGII 10.5.2]
,,
,
;
,
,
;
[WGII 10.5.2]
,
,
,
,
(,),
,
,,,
,,
,,
[WGII 10.5.2,10.5.7]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
101/214
5.4: Tsho Rolpa[WGII 17.1]
Tsho Rolpa4580Tsho Rolpa1957/580.23 km219971.65 km2(5.6)91 (GLOF)
5.6:Tsho Rolpa
(Khim1998(GLOF)319Tsho Rolpa
20024320GLOFGLOF
Tsho Rolpa20500.38/20900.54/[WGII 1.3.1.1]
Mool(2001)OECD(2003)ShresthaShrestha(2004)
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
102/214
90
,,
[WGI
11.ES,11.2.4,11.7]
5.3.2
20,
5 - 7
,,
50%(5.7)
20,
20%,1.7%(IOCI,2002)
,,
(IOCI,2002),
,2006,
[WGII 11.6]
5.3
5.3.1
,,
(
2.1.7)2002,
18951902,
[WGII
11.2.1 ,11.2.4]
2080
(WoodsHoward-Williams2004)2060
55%(2000)19851996,
65%(NLWRA,2001)
,
(SOE,2001;Cullen,2002)
G1
1911-1974 (338G1)
1975-1996 (177G1)
1997-2005 (115G1)
5.71911-2006http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Ddams_streamow.cfm()[WGII11.3]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
103/214
5.3.3
5.3.3.1 2030,
,
[WGII 11.ES] -
,70%(MDBC,2006)SRES A1B1
GCM,2050
10%-25%,210016%-48%,
-8+19% -25+72%(Beare
Heaney, 2002) [WGII 11.5]
290-45%( Jones
Durack,2005)A2,,1961-1990
,2021-2050,
6%-8%,
14%(Chiew,2003)(SRES
B1A1BA1F),2020,3%-11%,
20507%-35%;,2020,-
(Howe,2005)
[WGII 11.4.1]
,,
(WoodsHoward-Williams,2004)
,,
,
(,)
,(Mullan
,2005)
ENSOIPO(McKerchar
Henderson,2003),
(Namjou
,2006),
[WGII 11.4.1.1]
5.3.3.2 ,
,,
,
,
,
(,2004)
[WGII 11.4.10]
5.3.3.3 (
)
,
,(Woodruff,2002,2006)
;
(),
,
,
(McMichael,2003)[WGII 11.4.11]
(Davis,1997;S
2001),
,(Falconer,1997)
,,
(Viney,2003) [W
11.4.1]
5.3.3.4
,
[WGII 11.7]
,
,
(Sorensen,2000)
,
(Hood,2002;Mill
Veltman,2004;Jenkins,2006)[WGII 11.4.3]
5.3.3.5 2020,
,
(,)
,
,
(BunnArthington,2002;HallBurns,2002;He
,2002;Schallenberg,2003)[WGII 11.ES,11
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
104/214
92
5.3.4
,-
,
(,2005),
,
(,
)(5.2)[WGII
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,
,
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,
,
,
(,
),
,
,(Beare
Heaney,2002)
,
,
[WGII 11.5]
,
,
[WGII 11.2.5]
,
[WGII 11.7]
200120067 DAFF, 2006b
2004-200915 DAFF, 2006a
- 2004-20094 DPMC, 2004
20122.25 ,2006
20151.53 ,2006
- 20103.76 DSE, 2006
39800682500
DEUS, 2006
(Qld) 2005-2010
1.823.02
,2005
2025
2005
(WA) (2003)()1996-2006
1996-200652.90
,2003,2006;2006
5.2:[WGII11.2]2007
-
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105/214
5.4.1
,,
;
()
,
,[WGII TAR
13.1.2.1]
-
,,
(EEA,2004)
,
,
,,
,, [WGII
12.2.3,SPM]
;,
[WGII TAR 13.1.2.1]
5.4.2
1946-1999
(Klein Tank,2002),
NAO(Sc
,2005),1950-2000
(NorrantDougudroit,2006)
,(Frich,2002;K
Tank,2002;Alexander,2006)
(Auer,2007)
,
5.3[WGI ;WGII 12.2.1]
5.4.3
5.4.3.1 ,,
,,
,
Risnen(20
(S
A2,70%),
Giorgi(2004)
,,
30-45%)[WGI 11.1;WGII 12.3.1.1]
5.4
KlanderudBirks, 2003; Luoto2004
Viner2006
Frauenfeld2004Mazhitova2004
LaternserSchneebeli2003MartinEtchevers2005
Hoelzle2003
5.3: [WGII12.1]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
106/214
94
(5.3)
(Werritty,2001;Andrasson,2004),
(Chang,2002;Etchevers
,2002;MenzelBrger,2002;Iglesias,2005)
A2B2,
(47N)2120
5%-15%,2170,
9%-22%(Alcamo,2007),(47N
),21200-23%,
21706%-36%()
(Krger,2002),
(Somlydy,2002),
(Eitzinger,2003)[WGII 12.4.1,
12.1]
,
,,
(Arnell ,2003,2004)[WGII 3.4.1] ,(MiddelkoopKwadijk,2001)
(Szolgay,2004)
(Oltchev,2002),,
,
,,
(Hock,2005)50%(ZierlBugmann,2005)
50%(Eckhardt
Ulbrich,2003),80%(Santos
,2002)[WGII 12.4.1]
,
(Dll,2002;DonevskaDodeva,2004)
(,),
(Holden,2003)
,(/
40%),
(Alcamo,2003b;Schrter,2005)[WGII 12.4.1]
(5.4)
,,
,
,
[WGII12.4]
ChristensenChristensen(2003)Giorgi
(2004)Kjellstrm(2004)Kundzewicz(2006)
,
,
,(Llasat,2001)[WGII 12.3.1.2]
Schr(2004),
,,
21,,
(Polemio
Casarano,2004)Good(2006),
50%,,
(Lenderink,2007),
,
,
(),
(Douville,2002)
2020 15%23%a
d
c
2050 20-30%b
2070 30%36%a
80%b, d
217010()c
()()()c
aAlcamo2007;bArnell, 2004, cLehner2006, dSantos2002.
5.4:ECHAM4HadCM3[WGII12.2]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
107/214
[WGII 3.4.3,12.3.1]
,2180,
(Kay,2006b),
,
(Reynard,2004)Palmer
Risnen(2002)CO2
,CO2
,
,
(5-7),
[WGII 3.4.3]
5.4.3.2 (
19.8%)2170,
6%,20%-50%,
15%-30%,(Lehner,2005)
(OlesenBindi,
2002)[WGII 12.4.8.1]
5.4.3.3 ,
(Miettinen,
2001;Hunter,2003;Elpiner,2004;KovatsTirado,
2006)
,(Howe
,2002;Kistemann,2002;Opopol,2003;Knight,2004;Schijvende Roda Husman,2005)[WGII
12.4.11]
5.4.3.4 ,
()(MeehlTebaldi,2004;Schr
, 2004;Beniston, 2007)
( Jones,2003b),(Trnka,
2004),
,(,
,),
(,)
[WGII 12.4.7.1]
5.4.3.5 ,
()
[WGII 12.4.3]
(ACIA,2004)
(Iva
Maximov,2003)
,(Moss,2003;St
,2003;Briers,2004;Eisenreich,2005)
(Bouraoui,2004;K
,2004;Eisenreich,2005),
(Jeppesen,2003)
,(Sand-Jense
Pedersen,2005)[WGII 12.4.5]
,
(Gutirrez Teira,2003)[WGII 12.4.6]
5.4.4
(IPCC,2001b
(Hooijer,2004),
,(He
,2002)(Somlydy,2002)
(Silander,2006),
[WGII 12.5.1]
,
,
(Santos,2002;Iglesias,2005)
(Barreira,2004
(Schrter,2005)
,,
,
(Geres,2004),(Igl
,2005),
(AEMA,2002),
(DonevskaDodeva,2004;Geres,20(Iglesias,2005)
,
(Kabat,2002;Cosgrove,2004;Kashyap,2004)
,,
(DonevskaDodeva,2004)[WGII 12.5.1]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
108/214
96
(,)
,
[WGII 3.ES,3.2,3.6]
()
10%;
50%;
,
(,)
[WGII 13.2.4.1]
10-20,
2-3/[WGII 13.2.4.1]
(5.9)
(5.5)
-,
[WGI 4.5.3]
5.5
5.8
5.5.2.2 ,
,
2001
,GDP(Kane,2002)
,[WGI
13.2.2,13.2.4]
5.5.2.3 ,
,,
,
(Gagnon,2002)
()(Patz
,2005),
,(Ko
,1999;Kupek,2000)
,
,--
,,/
,
5.5
5.5.1
,
,
,
,
,
-
30%,,
(Mata,2001),
ENSO
5.5.2
5.5.2.1 ,
,ENSO
(,
(19992005);
(20002002),(2005),
(2002)(2006)
,(2004),
2005)
1970-19992000-2005,
1.4,2090,
20002005
19%,
200(Nagy,2006)[WGII
13.2.2]
[WGII 13.2.2]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
109/214
(WGII 13.2)
(%)
-/(Marengo2004) 19491999 -11 -17 / -
+18
(Ronchail2005) 1970 +15
-(PenalbaVargas2004) 19002000 +1 SD +2
(Bidegain2005) 19612002 + 20
-(Camilloni2005) 50 -50
(Pabn2003) 19611990 -4 +6
20042006(WGII 13.1)
20059
7086614(NOAA2005).
20052
()52006317. 5(UCV2005DNPC2005/2006)
20042006
-20043.6121(SRA2005)2004/05
-(http://www.cptec
inpe.br/)
-65%56%(http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/: http://www.ib
gov.br/english/)
(WGII 13.3)
/ /
a, b
35
22%(5.9)12%(60%)7000106m3
c
30
80%50188106m3
d
19902000
82%100
e
19561998
f
1990s
5.5
aVsquez,2004;bMarkSeltzer,2003;cNC-,2001;dNC-,2001;eNC-,2000;fFrancou,2003.
5.5:[WGII13.1,13.2,13.3]
(Hurtado-Diaz,2006)[WGII 13.2.2,8.2.8.3]
5.5.2.4 ,
,
,
38%18%13%12%
,7%[WGII
13.2.2,13.2.4]
5.5.2.5
,
(
),,
[WGII 13.2.2]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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98
,
,
,()
1977-2001,
,
17%,
[WGII 13.2.2]
5.5.3
5.5.3.1 ,,B2
,21001C
4C,A22C6CGCM
(),
,,
,
,
AOGCM,
,
[WGI11.1,11.6;WGII
13.ES,13.3.1]
,
(1000m3//)2220
(1995)SRES,2120,
12008100,2150
,79001.78(Arnell,2004)
,5.6
,
,,
[WGII 13.4.3]
5.5.3.2
,(UNMSM,2004)
,
,(Ramrez
,2001)[WGI 4.5.3;WGII 13.2.4]
5.5.3.3 2.62,31%,
()
(PAHO,2003)SRES
,,,
,
,
(van Lieshout,2004)
(a) (b)
5.8: (a)(1960-2000);P0.05(
,Haylock(2006))(b)(1961-2003),
,,(
Aguilar(2005))[WGII13.1]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
111/214
5.5. [WGII 1.1]
,,[W
4.5.3],,
,(5.9)
(16S)1940,
0.22,(2005)0.01(5.10)(Ramrez,2001;Franc
,2003;Berger,2005)19922005,90%,97%(Berg,2005),,2010(Coudra
,2005),[WGI 4.5.3],
20800C1050(Vuille,2003)
5260,2090,,,,(5.10)
5.1019402005,2005,
(1940)1940,800,1996,
600(1940,),2004,
FrancouVincent(2006)Jordan(1991)[WGII1.1]
120
100
80
60
1850 1900 1950 2000
5.91925(100),
(%)(Georges,2004)199
,620[WG
4.16]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
112/214
100
,2010,
(Aparicio,2000;NC-,2001)
,
[WGII 13.4.5]2025 2055
,
(Hales2002)
,
()(Aparicio2000;PetersonShaw2003)
(Peterson
2005)[WGII 13.4.5]
5.5.3.4 ,
SRES
A2,2020
100,2050,
,2080,400[WGII
13.5,13.4.2]
5.5.3.5 ,
,
,
,
,
2150,
,50%[WGII
13.ES,13.4.1,13.4.2]
5.5.4
5.5.4.1
(GNP)
()
(SolanesJouravlev2006),
(Fay
2003b)
IRDBIDFB,
1992
(IRDB,2000)
,
,
()(La
Nacin,2002),
,(
)
()(
)()
(,2001;21,2002)
,NGO(ASA)
,P1MC,
100
(BSAT)100
,ASA12400,200421000
(Gnadlinger2003),20002002,
-
10
(Basn Nickisch2002)[WGII 13.2.5]
5.5.4.2 ,
60%
(
)
,
(COHIFE,2003)(5.6)[WGI
13.5]
GCM
19952025 2055
A1 22.2 35.7 21.0 54.0 60.0
A2 22.2 55.9 37.066.0 149.3 60.0150.0
B1 22.2 35.7 22.0 54.0 74.0
B2 22.2 47.3 7.077.0 59.4 62.0
5.6: HadCM3GCM,()(Arnell,2004)[WGII13.6]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
113/214
5.6.[WGII 13.2]
,,,,,,,
,,,,;,(5.1(Treacy,1994;WrightValencia Zegarra,2000;Caran Nelly,2006),(Burger,1992)
5.11()(Orlo
,2000),,1000
,,,,( Bao dInca),(Tampumacchay)(Cortazar,1968),;(Burge1992)(Ollantaytambo),,,,
,(CanziaMata,2004),,,
,,(Carey,2005;Bradl,2006),,(ECLAC)(Dourojeanni,2000)
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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102
;,
()(Villagrn de Len,
2003)[WGII 13.5]
,
,
,
,
[WGII 14.2,14.4]
,-
[WGII 14.ES,14.2]
5.6
5.6.1
,
(
)
5.7,
[WGII
14.ES]
,
,20,
,
[WGII
14.ES,14.1]
5.6.2
5.6.2.1
(GCM)
2100,,
[WGI
11.5.3.2;WGII 14.3.1] A1B,
+20%,+30%
[WGI 11.5.3.3;WGII
14.3.1],
,
[WGI 10.3.6.1;WGII 14.3.1]
21,
,,(
),[WGII
14.4] ,
,
[WGII 14.2,15.2]
5.7( , )
AR4
1-4
[WGII 1.314.2]
[WGII 14.2WGI 4.2]
[WGI 4.2]
[WGI 3.3]
[WGI 4.2]
[ [WGII 14.2]
[WGII 14.2]
[WGII 14.2]
[WGII 14.4, 15.7]
(0.11.5C)
[WGII 1.3]
[WGII 14.2]
[WGI 4.ES, 4.5]
[WGII 4.4, 14.2]
[WGII 6.4]
[WGII 14.2 ]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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,
(
)()(
)
,,
,;
,[WGII 14.4.1]
,
[WGII 3.4] ,
,
[WGII 3.4.2]
5.6.2.2 ,
,2090,
,,1999,(CCME,2003)[WGII
4.2]
2-3C,,
,
(),
(Christensen,2004),
(MoultonCuthbert,2000;Lofgren
,2002;Mirza,2004)
(4.37-6.60/),
(2800-4200/)
(Buttle,2004;Ouranos,2004),
(Ouranos,2004)[WGII 3.5,14.4.8]
60N(
A1B2080-20991980-1999
)[WGI 10.10]Pan(2004)
;0-20%
(CO2HadCM2RegCM224
)[WGII 14.4.8] ,,
33/106,1.83/109
(Walsh,2003)
,
(RegCM2CO2
)(Brown,2000)[WGII 14.4.8]
5.6.2.3 ,
,,
Curriero,2001)
(Thomas,2006)
,
(Schuster,2005)
(Dwight,2002)
,
(Fleury,2006)[WGII 14.ES,14.2.5]
[WGI SPM]
2005,
1800[WGII 6.4.2 ],
(CDC,2005;Manuel,2006)[W8.2.2;4.5]
5.6.2.4
,,,
(),TAR
(Reilly,2002),
,,,
,()(Hay
,2004;White,2006)[WGII 14.4.4]
(
(Parson,2003)
(Vasquez-Leon2003)
(,)
(Antle2004)(Po
Easterling,2001)[WGII 14.4.4;4.2.2
,
,()
[WGII 14.4.1]
24I
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
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104
,
(,,
)
(HatfieldPruger,2004;Nearing
,2004)[WGII 14.4.1]
5.6.2.5 ,
,
,
,(Smith
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2004)[WGII 14.4.2](2040
)
,(Ross,2000)[WGII 1.3.3.2]
[WGII
6.4 ]
,,
(Berthelot,2002),
,
,
,
90,
(Barber,2000)Bachelet(2001)
,1C,
11%[WGII14.4]
,3C
,,,
(Johnson,2005)
[WGII 4.4.10]
;;,
(GallagherWood,2003)
(Wrona
, 2005),,
,
,(Jone
,2006)
(Clark,2001;Mohseni,2003)
[WGII 14.4]
5.6.2.6 5.75.8,
(
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5.6.3
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,
,
,
[WGI
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[WGII 14.7]
;,
[WGII 14.7] ,
,
(NAST,2000;Lemmen
Warren,2004)
,
(PaavolaAdger,2002)[WGII 14.5]
,
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
117/214
5.7
(Pulwa
,2005),2500,20203800100,
14%,1934,65%
,
,,400,
(1905-1925),,19
,30%-40%,2000-2004,
,,,
(Pulwarty,2005)
,(15%)(85%)
,,21,30%(Milly,2005),
202560%-75%(Christensen,2004)
2050,2050(),,
,
(),,20,
,(Pulwarty,2005)
,
,
(,2003;Wheaton,2005),
(
)
(WallSmit,2005)[WGII 14.2.4]
,
(MWD,2005)[WGII 14.3]
,
[WGII 14.5.1]
(Munich
Re,2004;MillsLecompte,2006) [WGII
14.2.4]
(Elsasser,2003;
,2004;Scott,2005;JonesScott,2006;Scott
Jones,2006)[WGII 14.2.4]
20 80
27 %34 %(
2005)[WGII 14.2.4]
,
(MWD,2005)[WGII
14.3]
,
(Sm
Wall,2003)[WGII 14.2.4]
;
,
(Hunt,2005)[WGII 14.5.1]
()
,
/(Changno
Changnon,2000)[WGII 14.5.1]
15%,
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
118/214
106
,
,
(Waters,2003)[WGII
14.5.1]
1970,35%(100),7%(
,2002),
[WGII 14.3]
2004 ,
,
(Cohen,2004;
,2004)[WGII 3.1,20.8.2]
5.7.1
,
,
,
,
,
(
)()
5.8[WGII 14.2]
()
,( 1964
)(1974)
(Miles,2000;Hamlet,2003)()
,,(Gray,1999;Scott
,2004),,
(Miles,2000;Mote,2003)
,,,
,(HamletLettenmaier,1999;Mote,1999)
,,
,(Miles,2000)
,21402C
570/2080/490
/(Mote2003),( Hamlet
,2002;LettenmaierHamlet,2003;Gamble,2004;Payne,2004)43,
,
(ISRP/ISAB,2004)
,
(Miles,2000;Parson,2001;Cohen,2003),()
(IPCC IS92aHadCM2ECHAM4/OPYC3AOGCM212090
)(HamletLettenmaier,1999)21,25%(Mote,1999),
,,
10%,(PDO)17%4,
10%-20%,(Payne,2004)(Cohen,2006)
5.7
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
119/214
,)
(400Bogoyavlenskiy
Siggner,2004),,
,,
,
,(
5000
),,
,
(HildStordhal,
2004)[WGI 10.6.4;WGII 15.2.1]
,
,
(,Shiklomanov,2000;Prowse,
2004)
,
,
[WGI 10.3.4;WGII 15.4.1]
5.7.2
2030,
(7%Peterson,2002),20
,
,
(DyurgerovCarter,2004)
,
,
(AbdalatiSteffen,2001;Johannessen
,2005;Walsh,2005)
,,,
(McClelland,2004),,
()
,-
(,Gibson,2006;Peters
,2006)[WGI 9.5.4;WGII 15.4.1.1]
,
,
1%
(McBean,2005;Walsh,2005)
,
,(Yang
,2002;Berezovskaya,2005),
(Yang,2004a,b
(
),60,
,,
(Yang,2002)(Y
,2004b)
,,
,
(Walsh,2005)[W
15.2.1,15.4.1.1]
,
(Walsh,2005),
,
(Serreze,2003;Berezovskaya,2005;Zh
,2005)20,
,(Smith,2005
5.12),
,,
,
,
/
(Korhola,2002;Ruhland,2003;Pie
,2004;Smol,2005;Prowse,2006)[WGI
;WGII 15.4.1.1]
,
,
,(Dry Valleys)
,(D
,2002),,
(Quayle,2002),
(Quayle,2003)[WGII 15.2.2.2]
5.7.3
,
,GCM
,,
,,
10%-30%
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
120/214
108
,
(,Callaghan,2005)
CO2(,Gedney
,2006)(Anisimov
Belolutskaia,2004;Instanes,2005)
/
(Syvitski,2002),
( Bogaart van
Balen2000;Vandenberghe,2002) [WGI10
;WGII 15.4.2.3,15.4.1.2]
,
,
,
,
,,
[WGI 10;WGI
15.4.1.3]
(Walsh,2005)
,
,
(Beltaos,2006;Prowse,2006)
,
,,
(Prowse,2006)[WGII 15.4.1.2,15.6.2]
,
(Prowse,2006;Reist2006a,b,c;Wrona
,2006)
,(,
),
(Nuttall,2005;Reist,2006a)[WGII 15.4.1.3]
,
,
(,)(MacDonald
,2003)(Wrona
,2006)
,
/(
,1997;Martin2005)
,
,(Warren
,2005)[WGII 15.4.1]
5.12,(20701997-2004,),
,Smith,(2005)AAAS[WGII15.4]
-
8/3/2019 Climate Change and Water - Chinese
121/214
,
;
;
;
(,2000;Prowse
,2004; Instanes,2005)
,IS92a,
20,
15%-30%[WGI
3.5.1,WGII 15.4.1.4]
5.7.4
,
,(,Ruhland,2003),
(Wrona,2006),
(Wrona,2005)[WGII 15.2.2.2]
,,
(,
)/
(,
;ProwseBeltaos,2002)
,
,
(McBean,2005;Nuttall,2005)[WGII
15.2.2.2]
1. 25
2.
3. ,
(SIDS),
[WGII TAR17]
,
,
,
,
(
),
()
[WGII 16.ES,16.5.2]
5.8.2
,
(
),
[WGII 16.7.1] TAR,
,1901-2004
,
,
[WGII 16.2.2.2]
,1910,
(SPCZ)26
,0.6C-1.0
2070,,
SPCZ0.3C-0.5
2040
(Salinger,2001;Folland,2003)
,1971-20040.24C-0.5C,
,
(McBean,2005)[WGII 16.2.2.2]
1961-2003,
5.8
5.8.1
TAR(17;IPCC,2001b)
(,
),,
,
25 (UNFCCC),GHG
26
SPCZITCZ,,
-
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110
,
,,
,
(Manton
2001;Griffiths2003),
2050
(Petersen
2002)[WGII 16.2.2.2]
,1.5C-2C
[WGII TAR17]
,
(
),
- 20507-8%,
- 20506-8%,
- 205020%,
,
ENSO
,
,
,
,,
,,
,1970,
,SST
,
1970
,20
70,[WGI
TS,3.8.3;WGII 16.2.2.2]
25
,0.7mm/(Mitchell,2001)50
(),(
)1.6mm/[WGI 5.5.2]
5.8.2.1 7GCMSRES,
5.8
,,
,SRES
,
,
,[WGI
16.3.1]
20102039 20402069 20702099
-35.6 +55.1 -52.6 +38.3 -61.0 +6.2
-14.2 +13.7 -36.3 +34.2 -49.3 +28.9
-5.4 +6.0 -6.9 +12.4 -9.8 +14.7
-6.3 +9.1 -19.2 +21.3 -2.7 +25.8
-3. 9 + 3.4 -8.23 +6.7 -14.0 +14.6
5. 8(%)AOGCMSRES B1B2A2A1F1[WGII16.2]
10%(2050),
20%
[WGII 16.4.1]
,
,,
,
[WGII 16.4.1]
,,
,
,,
,
,
,,,
;
;,
[WGII 16.4.1]
,(MRAE,2004),,
;(GDE,2002)
(,1999)
(NEAB,2000)
,
,(
)
[WGII 16.4.2]
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5.8.2.2 ,
,
,
,
,,,,
[WGII 16.4.6,16.4.7]
5.8.2.3
,
(WHO2003),ENSO,(Rawlins,2005)
,
,
(Singh,2001)
[WGII 8.2,8.4],(Singh
,2001),
[WGII 16.4.5]
5.8.2.4 ,
,,,
,(2000)
,SRES A2B2,2050,,
,2300-5200
(2002GDP2%-3%),
()800
-1600(2002GDP
17%-18%),50%
,
[WGII 16.4.3]
5.8.2.5 Burke(2002)BurkeMaidens(2004),
50%45%
-(Graham,2006),
,
[WGII 16.4.4]
,
,
,,
80%,
(Gardner,2003)
[WGII 16.4.4]
5.8.3
(Kerr,2005)
[WGII 16.6]
5.92100
,
[WGII 16.5]
,
,,
,
[WGII 16.7.1]
(N
,2001)
GDP,
;,
[WGII 16.7]
,
,(
-
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112
*
1.
SRES A1B2ACIA(2005)
2.
I/II
/ 2C
Fosaa(2004)
-
I
II
3.
Smith (2002)
4.
SRES A1FIB1
Gritti(2006)
5. -
(GLM/
STATISTICA)Sanz(2003)
6.
(CLIMEX)Kriticos(2005)
7.
SRES A2B2(2000)
205010%
20%
8. 15
2100
0.88 m
Gilman(2006)
50%15
12%
9.
SRES A1, A1FI,
B1, A2, B2
Fish(2005)
0.538%(24%SD)
10.
Uyarra(2005)
5.9:[WGII16.1]
*
-
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)Sutherland,2005),
,
[WGII16.5]
IPCC
[WGII 16.7]
(,)
;
,;
,
;
,
,;
,
,
,
,
,
,2100,
[WGII 16.5]
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-
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6
-
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-
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6.1
(GHG)
IPCC()
IPCC
(6.1)
6.1
6.2.2 (2)
[LULUCF 4.5.1]
[LULUCF 4.5.1] GHG
2050100 EJ/
400 EJ/(Hoogwijk, 2004; Hoogwijk, 2
; Sims, 2006)Smeets(2007)
800 EJ/
/
(Smeets200
[WG III 8.4.4.2]
(Unkovich, 2003Dias de Oliveira2005)
(Ber
Brjesson2002Jackson2005)
(MachadoSilva2001Freibauer200
[WG III 8.8]
()
(WestMarland, 200
Balmford 2005; Mooney2005)
(HustonMarland, 2003G
2005)[WG III 8.8]
6.2
6.2.1 (CCS)(6.1 (1)
)
(CO2)(CCS)CO
2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
[CCS SPM, 5.ES]
CO2[CCS 5.ES, 5.2]
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118
/
CCS(1) [?]
(2) [+/-](5) [-](13) [-]
(3) [+]
CCS(1) [?]
(12) [-](3)[-/?]
(7) [+/-]()(8) [+/-]
()(9) [+/-]
()(10) [+]
(12) [+/-]
/
//
(4) [+/-](13) [-](5) [-]
(2) [+/-](4) [+/-]
s(6)[+/-]
(7) [+/-]()(8) [-]
()(9) [+]
(10) [+/-](11) [+]
(12) [+]
(4) [+/-]
(5) [-]
(7) [+/-]
(7) [+/-]
(10) [-]
6.1:()[+][]
[?]6.2
(1) (CCS) (3,000)
(2) /
(3) ()
(4)
(5)
(6) ()
(7) ()()()
(8)
(9)
(10) ()
(11) /
(12)
(13) ()
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(BerndesBrjesson,2002; Berndes
,2004; BrjessonBerndes,2006)[WG III 8.8]
[LULUCF 4.21]
6.2.3 (3)
[WG III 4.ES]
[WG III89]
2030432
TWh/ [WG III 4.4.4]
6.2.4 (4)
()
()
( )
(
)
75%
[WG III 4.3.3]
(>10 MW)2004
2,800 TWh16%(90%)
4.5%
6,000 TWh /
[WG
III 4.3.3.1]
(
-
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120
[WG III 8.4.1.3]
[LULUCF 4.10]
[WG III 8.12]
()
(Cole1993)
(Cole1993Isensee
Sadeghi1996)
[WG III
TAR 4.4.2]
(Lal1999
Bationo2000Resck2000Swarup
2000)
(
)
[LULUCF
4.1]
[WG III8.12]
()
GHG
(Dalal
2003Paustian2004Oenema2005
Olesen2006)[WG III 8.8]
()
[LULUCF 4.5.1 ] [WG III 8.12]
6.2.8 ()(8)
GHG
()
(Unkovich2003Dias de Oliveira
2005)
[WG III 8.12]
6.2.9 ()(9)
(CTIC1998)
()
[LULUCF
4.3 ]
[LULUCF 4.4.2.4 ]/
[WG III 8.12]
6.2.10 (10)
()
(Calder1990)
[LULUCF
2.5.1.1.4]
(Hibbert1967Schulze1982)
-
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(Hibbert1967SwankDouglass1974)
Vincent(1995)
(JonesGrant1996)
[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]
(MorrisThomson, 1983)
()
(Schofeld1992) [LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]
()(Greenwood 1985)
(Calder, 1992). [LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]
(Fukushima1987;
Kobayashi1987)
(Le
MaitreVersfel1997)
(Jackson
2005)
[WG III
TAR 4.4.1]
[LULUCF 4.7.2.4]
6.2.11 (11)
()
(Parrotta2002)[WG III 9.7.2]
(ChomitzKumari1996)[WG III T
4.4.1]
(Myers1997)
(ARD)
ARD
[LULUCF 3.6.2]
6.2.12 (12)
(
)GHG
)()
[WG III10.7]
GHG
[WG III 10.4.6]
[WG III 10.4.6
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122
6.2.13 (13)
(Williams2006)
()
4
()
)75%(NEB2006)
75%
[WG III 4.3.1.4]
GHG
( 6.2)
6.3.1 (1)
75%
(
)
()
[WG III
4.3.3.1]
6.3 GHG
)(
2000)
UNFCCC
(CDM)
[WG III 4.3.3.1]
6.3.2 (2)
18%(
2005ab)(
)
(Follett2001
Lal2004)
(Schlesinger1999 ; Mosier 2005 )
(Liebig 2005
[WG III 8.4.1.1.d]
(Yan2003)[WG III 8.4.1.1.e]
6.3.3 (3)
()()
(Cerri2004
)
(Madari2005)
(WestPost2002; Alvarez2005Gregorich
2005Ogle2005)
N2O
(Cassman2003Smith
Conen2004Helgason2005Li2005
)N2ON
2O
(Marland200
)
(Marland2003Koga2006)
(
Cerri2004)
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/
(7) [+] (1) [+/-]
(2) [-]
(7) [+]
(6) [-]
(1) [+/-]
(1) [-] (2) [+/-]
(3) [+](4)
[+/-]
(5)
[+/-]
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4) ()
(5) (GHG)(
)
(6)
(7) GHG
6.2:[-]()
[+]6.3
[WG III 8.4.1.1.c]
6.3.4 (4)
(
)
N2O(Monteny2006)
N2O(Reay2003
)[WG III 8.4.1.1.d]
6.3.5 (5)
N2O
[WG III 10.3.1]
19902020
50%
N2O
1990202025%
2012
[WG III 10.3.1]
N2O
1990N2O
2020[
III 10.3.3]
(3-5)
()
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124
GHG
[WG III 10.6.2]
GHG [WG III 10.6.2]
6.3.6 (6)
()
[WG II 3.3.2]
6.3.7 (7)
(6.2.5)
(Dang2003)
6.4
(
)
(
)
[WG I
18.8, 18.4.3]
(
) (Christensen
2004Van Rhe enen2004 ) [WG I
18.4.3]
(Boutkan
Stikker2004)
[WG I
18.4.3]
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7
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7.1
(
)
(
)
(
)()
[WGII
3.4]
()[WGII 3.4,3.5]
[WGII
TS, 3.3.1, 3.4]
()
[WGII TS, 14.5]
[WGII 3.4.3]
(
)
[WGII TS.5, 3.4, 3.7]
[WGII 3.4.2]
[WGII 3.5.1
[W
3.2, 3.4.4, 3.4.5]
[WGII 3.4, 3.5]
[WGII 3.4,3.5]
[W
3.3.2,3.5]
[W
3.5.1]
[W
TS, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6]
(
)
[WGII 3.6]
2100
)
)
[WGII TS]
[WGII 3.4.1]
(
)
20%
2180
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128
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGII 4.ES]
[WGII 4.ES, 4.4.11,
4.1, 4.6.1, 4.6.2]
[WGII 5.4.1, 5.4.2]
[WGII SPM]
[WGII 5.4]
[WGII
5.5.2]
/
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 8.6.4]
[WGII 5.7]
[WGII 3.2, 3.4.2]
/
(-
)
() [WGII
6.3, 6.4]
[WGII 7.4.3, 7.5]
[WGII 7.4.3.2]
(
)
[WGII 7.6]
[WGI
14.5.3, 14.3]
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 8.2.2]
[WGII 3.8]
7.2
[WGII 9.4.1][WGI
9.6][WGII 9.2.2, 9.4.3])
[WGII 9.4]
2180
5%-8(6-9
) [WGII 9.4.4]
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[WGII 9.4.4, TS.6]
2150
()
()(
)[WGII 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.8]
25%-40%
30%
[WGII 9.4.5, 3.4.7, 5.4.5]
()
[WGII 9.2.2, TS.6]
2025
1,820
m31,000 m3[WGII 10.4.2.3]
[WGII 10.4.2]
1C10%[WGII 10.4.1]
[WGII 6.4, 10.4.3]
(2007)[WGII
3.4.1, 10.4.2.1]
(
20300-45%
2050
10%-25%)[WGII 11.4.1]
2030
[WGII 11.ES, 11.4.5, 11
2030
[W
11.4]
CO22180
[WGII 12.3.
2170
36
IS92a80%[W
12.4.1, T12.2]
(
0.4)
217034%-36%[WGII 12
218017
16004400(HadCM
)[WGII 12.4.1]
21 70
6%
20%-50%
15%-30%[WGII 12.4.8]
2050
30%-70%
[WGII 12.4.3]
[W
13.4.3]
SRES A22020
37006600(
5600) [WGII 13.4.3]
)
[WGII 13.4.3]
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130
[WGII 13.2.4, 13.4.3]
21
[WGII 14.4.1]
[WGII14.2.1, 14.2]
5%-20%
[WGII 14.4.4]
[WGII 14.2.6,
14.4.6]
2050
20%-35% SRES
2050
15%-25%50%
[WGII 15.3.4]
[WGII 15.4.1]
/
[WGII 15.4.1]
[WGII 15.4.6]
[WGII
16.ES]
SRES
[WGII 16.4.1]
10%(2050
)
20%
[WGII 16.4.1]
(
)
[WGII 16.4.1]
7.3
()
CO2
[WGIII 4.3.3.1, 8.4.1.1]
7.4
( 7.1)
[WGII 3.7] .
[WGII 7.1.3, 7.2, 7.4]
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1:
2:
3:
4:
6:,
,
7:
7.1:[WGII3.6]
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8
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8.1
/
(
)
[WGI 3.3.3, 3.3.4]
[WGI 3.3.4]
[WGI 3.3.4]
[WGI TS 6.2, 4.2.2, 4.3]
CO2
[WGI 7.2]
[WGI TS.6; WGII 3.8]
()
[WGI 3.3.2.5]
(
)
8.2.1
[SYR; WGI TS.6]
(
)
8.2
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136
()
8.2.2 [WGII 3.5.1, 3.8]
(
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
8.3
(
)
[WGII 3.8]
[CCS, TS, 10
]
/
)
-
[WGII
4.3.3.3]
GHG
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(
CO2
N2O
)[WGIII 8.4.1.1]
[WGIII 9.7.3]
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