climate change and heat: risks to defence forces
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Security Roundtable/ Climate
Change Institute
ADFA
April 12, 2016
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But - are some risks “perhaps unacceptable”?
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Butler et al, 2005 (Ecosystems)
direct & indirect
Log scale
Log scale
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“Primary” (easily foreseeable)
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Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)
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A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
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“Tertiary” (potentially catastrophic)
“Primary” (easily foreseeable)
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“Secondary” (less obvious)
Old location
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Burden of Disease (proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)
SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”)via famine, conflict,
large-scale migration, economic collapse
Butler et al, 2014
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Butler et al, 2014
Mental health: “crosscut”
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Watts et al, Lancet 2015
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Dept of Defence, climate change and health
Heat – quintuple vulnerability including conflict / disaster relief / peacekeeping in hot countries
Vector borne diseases, other infectious diseases
Conflict-related injuries
Post traumatic stress disorder
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Dept of Defence, climate change and heat
Quintuple vulnerability
1.Warmer external temperatures (+humidity?)2.Instability/disasters in already hot places3.Internal heat (weight bearing exercise)4.Heat capture (clothing, equipment)5.Additional external heat? (heat island effects, fires)
Heat stress, heat exhaustion, deathDehydration and heat: renal impairmentNeural slowdown – Multiple Sclerosis – others?Exacerbation of chronic diseases? (also mental ill-health)Impacts due to family members & colleagues who are vulnerable (partners, parents, senior staff?)Unknown effects