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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-206 (Updaled Through 2002)

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ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES AFFECTINGTHE UNITED STATES: 1899-2002

Donovan LandreneauNational Weather Service Office

Lake Charles, Louisiana

1. Introduction

Tropical storms and hurricanes have affected every coastal state along the Atlanlic and Gulf of Mexico froTexas to Maine. Even some inland states, such as Arkansas and Tennessee, have adversely experience:effects of such storms. Anyone living In the eastern half of the U.S. should be aware of the effects of tropicstorms and hurricanes, and how they could affect their lives and businesses.

This study was Initiated for the purpose of addressing such concerns and others like them. By using a largof the work done by Neumann; et al. (1993), several statistics are revealed, Including frequency and returrperiod of tropical storms and/or hurricanes which have affected the various coastal and inland states. Thedistance between landfalls for hurricanes Is introduced to show which coastal state has the most concenIrof landfalls over time, rather than just looking at which state has the highest number of landfalls.

2. Data Collection

The majority of the information used for this study came from Neumann, et al. (1999). The Atlantic track fli(Jarvinen, et al. 1984) was used to complement this publication. Additional data for the years 1999-2002,iwell as an updated Atlantic track file through 2002, were obtained from the National Hurricano Center WelTropical depressions were excluded from this study due to the absence of data for these weak tropical sy!

Information on coastline length was obtained from Famighetti (1996). During the process of measuring thecoastline, Connecticut was eliminated and had no measurement of a coastline. A CD-ROM mapping progiDeLorme (1997), was used to estimate a coastline length for Connecticut.

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3. Analysis and Results

Hurricanes are ranked according to strength and by the amount of damage they cause. Table 1 Is a briefdescription of the Saffir/Simpson hunicane intensity scale. The weakest hurricane is designated a CategoOne with a maximum sustained wind from 74 to 95 mph and an average storm surge of 4 to 5 ft above se,level. In contrast, a Category Five hurricane has a maximum sustained wind greater than 155 mph and a:surge of greater than 18 ft. Storm depends on many factors such as the shape of the continental shelf justoffshore, whether the hurricane makes landfall at high or low tide, and the location of the onshore and offswinds relative to the eye of the hurricane.

Appendix A is a chronological list of hurricanes of various intensities which have struck from Texas to Malithe years 1899-2002. In this study, a storm affects a state only once. For example, Hurricane Erin of 1995landfall on the east coast of Florida, moved over the peninsula, and struck the Florida panhandle two daysSuch situations are counted once for simplicity since it was the same storm. Table 2 further divides thesehits according to category using the Saffir/Simpson scale. As one would expect, Category One hurricanesstruck most frequently with 63 landfalls, and Category Five storms are rare with only three landfalls. Noticesecondary maximum of Category Three landfalls.

The Glossary of Meteorology (Huschke 1959) and Elsner and Kara (1999) define frequency as the numbetimes a specified event occurs in a given series of observations, or period of time. In Table 2, the landfallfrequency is represented by dividing the number of storms which made a landfall or direct hit by time. In ticase, the time is 104 years. With the exception of the total for the United States, the results for each statesmaller than one, since no state averages a hurricane landfall or direct hit every year. The frequency of 1.'the United States signifies an average of one to two hurricane landfalls per year, somewhere along the GoAtlantic coastline.

The above references define return period as the average time interval between the occurrence of a givenquantity and that of an equal or greater quantity. This would represent the reciprocal of frequency, or theaverage number of years between each hurricane landfall. Table 2 shows, for example, that the averagenumber of years between a hurricane landfall for Louisiana Is 3.9. In contrast, the average number of yea,between landfalls In Georgia is 20.0. This gives an Idea of the climatological average.

Table 2 also gives information on the coastline length of each state and the distance between each hurridclandfall. We assume storms are, on average, distributed randomly along the coast, and we obtain this figudividing the state's coastline length by the number of hurricanes which have affected that state. This valueIntroduced to show the concentration of landfalling hurricanes for each state. The smaller the number, thesmaller the distance between each landfall resulting in a greater concentration of landfalls over time. Forexample, the total coastline length for Texas Is 367 mi. Dividing this figure by the total number of hurricanlandfalls, in this case 37, gives the distance between landfalls of 9.9 mi. Alabama, on the other hand, only11 hurricane landfalls during this time period. Since Its coastline Is only 53 mi, the resulting distance betwilandfalls Is 4.8 mi, a higher concentration than Texas. The relative numbers for states should be used withsome caution, however, because the assumption of random distribution may not be valid. Portions of theAtlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida, for instance, may have significantly different landfall frequencies.

A tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. In this analysis, a tropical storm Is considto have affected a state if the center of the storm Intersected any portion of the state while the storm was Etropical storm Intensity. This does not Include periphery effects from storms affecting adjacent states or

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countries. To obtain these data, a very detailed analysis of each track was performed using the yearly traccharts (Neumann, et al. 1999) In conjunction with the Atlantic track file (Jarvinen, et al. 1984). The resultsshown in Appendix B.

Using the results in Appendix B, Table 3 was constructed to represent the total number of tropical storms'have affected each state, along with the frequency and return period. The methodology for computing freqand return period is the same as Table 2, except each hit represents a tropical storm passing through anyof the state, and not just a coastal landfall. Table 4 shows the number of landfalling hurricanes and tropicastorms which have affected each coastal state, along with the frequency and return period. Once again, thmethodology for computing frequency and return period Is the same as Tables 2 and 3.

4. Summary

The main purpose for this study is to show which states are more susceptible to tropical storms and hurricby using frequency of occurrence and the return period. The distance between landfalling hurricanes wasintroduced to compare which states have the most concentration of landfalls, or in other words, the smalleaverage distance between landfalls over the 104-year data span. I emphasize again, however, that the lera state's coastline plays a significant role In the likelihood of a land-falling storm (I.e., exposure), and a Ioncoastline decreases the possibility that land-falling storms will strike with equal likelihood along all parts ofcoast. The latter is especially true for Florida and Texas (Eisner and Kara 1999).

Over the years, certain cycles and patterns of tropical cyclones affecting coastal states can be observed.patterns Include periods when most of the storms made landfall along the east coast of the U.S. verses thicoast, during El Nino/La Nifna events, etc. Such distinctions were not attempted In this paper, as many NItoffices within the studied area have performed local studies to address these issues. The subject Is also 'A

covered in many published papers and texts, see for example Elsner and Kara (1999) and its references.

Results presented in this study represent averages, and are not intended for use as a forecast of when thitropical storm or hurricane will affect a state. Instead, they may serve as a general tropical cyclone climatefor coastal states as well as some inland states as noted in this analysis.

5. Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the many authors and editors of the various publications used in this study,especially Neumann, et al. (1993), without which this analysis would have been close to impossible to conMany thanks also go to Lee Harrison (MIC) and Ken Falk (SOO) of WFO Shreveport, as well as Steve Rir(MIC) of WFO Lake Charles for allowing time to complete this project and reviewing the format and conterthis paper.

6. References

DeLorme, 1997: Street Atlas USA. Vers. 3.0. CD-ROM Computer Software.

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Eisner, James B. and A. Birol Kara, 1999: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic - Climato and Society. OxfordUniversity Press.

Famighelli, Robert, 1996: The WorldAlmanac and Book of Facts. 1997 ed.

Huschke, Ralph E., 1959: Glossary of Meteorology. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Jarvinen, Brian R., Charles J. Neumann, and Mary A. S. Davis, 1984: A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for thNorth Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS-\22.

Neumann, Charles J., Brian R. Jarvinen, Colin J. McAdie, and Joe D. Elms, 1999: Tropical Cyclones of thNorth Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1998. Historical Climatology Series 6-2, Asheville, North Carolina, National ClData Center.

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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-206 (Updated Through 2002)

ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES AFFECTINGTHE UNITED STATES: 1899-2002 (continued)

Table 1. The Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale.

Category Number Susaxined Wns Storm Surgeumber_|Sustained Winds | (feet above normal)

1 | 74to95 4to52 96 to 100 J 6toB3 111 to130 | 9to124 | 131 to 155 13 to 185 greater than 155 | greater than 18

Note: Information for this table was taken from the NOAA publication Tropical Cyclones of the NorthAtlantic Ocean, 1871-1998 (Neumann, et al. 1999).

Table 2. Hurricanes (direct hits) affecting the United States and Individual coastal states, 1899-2002.

Number of Hurricanes: LandfallReturn Coastline DstanceSaffir/Slmpson frequency Period Length Landfalls

Category Number (storms per (ingthyear) (years) mi.) (in st.

Area 4 1 2 3 | |5 j TotalI mi.)

Entire U.S. coastline 163 39 4 14 j3 j 168 1 1.62 j 0.6 3700 22.0Alabama (AL) 15 510 | O 11 | 0.11 9.4 | '53 | 4.8

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Connecticut (CT) 2 3* 3*l 0. 0 8 0.08 13.0 97+ 12.1Delaware (DE) 0 - O o I] ________i-| 28 |Florida(FL) 1 17 17 6 2] 60 0.57 1.7 1350 | 22.5Georgia (GA) 1 4 |0 0 0 5 | 0.05 |20.8j 100 20.0Louisiana (LA) |10 5j8 3 27 0.26 3.9 J 397 14.7Massachusetts (MA) 2 2* 0l6X 0.06 17.3 192 32.0Maryland (MD) jO 0l j J 0.01 104.0 31 31.0Maine (ME) 5* 0 X ° °.X 5* 0.05 228 45.6Mississippi (MS) | 1 |2 | 5 1.°.i2J.9.i 0.09 44 | 44 4.9North Carolina (NC) 11 6 111 1*° 09 0.28 3.61 301 | 10.8New Hampshire (NH) |1 1* 0 0 0] 2 0.02 52.0| 13 | 6.5New Jersey (NJ) 1* |0 0 j0 | 0|1* 0.01 104.0| 130 130.0New York (NY) 3 1* 5*j0J j 0.09 11.61 127 14.1Rhode Island (RI) 0 2* 3* |0 0 5*1 0.05 20.8 | 40 8.0South Carolina (SC) |7 4 j j2 J 0 15j | 0.14 6.9 | 187 | 12.5Texas(TX) |12| 10 9 6 J0 |37 0.36 2.8 | 367 | 9.9Virginia (VA) 2 1 1 1* 0 |0 4 0.04 |26.0 112 28.0

Notes:Asterisks (*) indicate that all hurricanes in this category were moving in excess of 30 mph. Thehurricane (direct hits) portion of this table Is taken from the NOAA publication Tropical Cyclones of theNorth Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1998 (Neumann, et al. 1999). Additional data for the years 1999-2002were obtained from the National Hurricane Center's web site using the updated Atlantic track file(Jarvinen, et al. 1984) through 2002.

Coastline lengths were obtained from NOAA/Department of Commerce by using The World Almanacand Book of Facts (Famighetti, 1996). The measurements were made with a unit measure of 30minutes of latitude on charts with a scale of 1:1,200,000. The coastline of sounds and bays wasincluded to a point where they narrow to the width of unit measure, and included the distance acrosssuch a point. The plus sign (+) indicates that this coastline was estimated by using the CD-ROMsoftware package (DeLorme, 1997).

The distance between landfalls was obtained by dividing the area's coastline by the number ofhurricanes to affect that area.

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Table 3. Tropical storms affecting the Individual states, 1899-2002.

Area | Total Frequency Return PeriodCoastal States (storms per year) (years)Alabama (AL) 28 0.27 3.7Connecticut (CT) J 5 0.05 20.8Delaware (DE) | 7 | 0.07 | 14.9Florida (FL) | 79 | 0.76 1.3Georgia (GA) | 45 0.43 j 2.3Louisiana (LA) j 38 | 0.37 | 2.7Massachusetts (MA) 8 | 0.08 | 13.0Maryland (MD) 15 0.14 | 6.9Maine (ME) . I 11 0.11 9.5Mississippi (MS) | 26 | 0.25 4.0North Carolina (NC) | 35 | 0.34 3.0New Hampshire (NH) 4 0.04 26.0New Jersey (NJ) 7 J 0.07 14.9New York (NY) 11 0.11 9.5Rhode Island (RI) 0South Carolina (SC) 25 0.24 4.2Texas (TX) 1 34 1 0.33 3.1Virginia (VA) | 17 0.16 6.1

Inland States l

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Arkansas (AR) 8 0.08 13.0Kansas (KS) j 1 I 0.01 104.0Kentucky (KY) 4 | 0.04 26.0Missouri (MO) 2 0.02 52.0Ohio (OH) 1 0.01 104.0Oklahoma (OK)' 2 0.02 52.0Pennsylvania (PA) 10 0.10 10.4Tennessee (TN) 5 | 0.05 | 20.8Vermont (VT) | 1 0.01 | 104.0West Virginia (WV) 4 | 0.04 26.0

Note: In this table, a tropical storm Is considered to have affected a state If the center of the stointersected any portion of the state while the storm was at tropical storm Intensity.

Table 4. Total tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Individual coastal states, 1899.2002.

Area Total Frequency | Return Periodl | (storms per year) J (years)

Alabama (AL) 39 0.38 | 2.7Connecticut (CT) 13 0.13 | 8.0Delaware (DE) 7 0.07 | 14.9Florida (FL) | 139 1.34 0.8Georgia (GA) 50 | 0.48 | 2.1Louisiana (LA) | 65 0.63 | 1.6Massachusetts (MA) | 14 | 0.13 | 7.4Maryland (MD) 16 0.15 6.5Maine (ME) 16 0.15 | 6.5Mississippi (MS) 35 0.34 3.0North Carolina (NC) | 64 j 0.62 1.6New Hampshire (NH) | 6 | 0.06 17.3New Jersey (NJ) 8 0.08 13.0Nw York (NY) | 20 | 0.19 5.2Rhode Island (Rl) | 5 0.05 20.8South Carolina (SC) 4 40 | 0.38 2.6Texas(TX) | 71 0.68 1.5

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|Virginia (VA) I 21 | 0.20 1 5.0 l

Note: The hurricane information used for this table came from the NOAA publication TropicalCyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1801-199b (Neumann, et al. 1999). Additional data for thyears 1999-2002 were obtained from the National Hurricane Center's web site using the updateAtlantic track file (Jarvinen, et al. 1984) through 2002.

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Appendix A. Chronological listing of all category 1 through 5 hurricanes affecting the Individual st1899-2002.

HighestStorm UJ.S. States affected with

Number Year Month Name Category category by each state2 |1899 AUG - 3 j NC36 1899 OCT - 1 SC 1, NC I1 1900 SEP - 4 TX 4

3 1901 JUL - 1 NC 14 | 1901 AUG j- j 2 |LA2, MS2

3 1903 SEP |- 1 2 |FL21903 SEP I- J 1 jNJ1,NY1,CT1

2 19041 SEP |- 1 SC 12 JUN |- 1 | FL14 |1906 SEP |- 3 |SC3, NC35 1906 SEP 3 MS 3, AL 38 1906 OCT 2 FL 22 1908 JUL | 1 |NC1

1909 JUL 3 | TX 31909 | AUG |- 2 |TX2

7 1909 SEP |- 4 LA 42 |1909 OCT |- 3 FL32 1910 | SEP | 2 |TX2

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4 1910 OCT 3 FL 31 111 AUG - 1 FL1, AL 12 21911 AUG _____j 2 |GA2,SC23 1912| SEP I 1 IAL1

21912I OCT 1 ITX11 119131 JUN . 1 |TX12 119313 SEP 1 | NC 12 1915] AUG I - 4 |TX44 19151 SEP - J 1 | FL1

5 |1915 SEP |- 1 4 JLA41 |1916| JUL | - 1 3 |MS3,AL32 1916I JUL 1 I MA I3 11916 JUL 1 |SC 14 11916| AUG |- | 3 TX313 119161 OCT |- 2 AL2,FL214 19161 NOV |- | 1 | FLI3 11917 SEP I- I 3 IFL31 |1918] AUG |- | 3 LAA32 11919 SEP I- I 4 |FL4,TX42 1920 SEP I- 2 I LA23 19201 SEP 1 NC 11 1921 JUN |- 2 |TX 26 11921 OCT |- | 3 |FL33 | 1923 OCT I- 1 1 LA 14 11924 SEP I- 1 iFL17 1924 OCT - 1 FL12 1925 NOV I- | 1 iFL 11 1926 JUL - 2 |FL23 1926 AUG 3 |LA36 1926 SEP 4 1 FL 4, AL 31 | 1928 AUG |- | 2 |FL24 1928 SEP - 1 4 IFL4, GA 1, SC 11 |1929 JUN |- 1 TX 12 119291 SEP 3 | FL32 |1932j AUG _ 4 |TX4

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3 1932 SEP |- 1 l-IAL 15 |133 JUU/AUG | 2 |FL1,T21193 2 F1, TX 2

8 11933I AUG J- | 2 j NC2,VA211 11933 SEP. 3 I TX 312 1933I SEP 3 FL313 1933 SEP . 1 3 |NC32 119341 JUN | 3 |LA33 |1934| JUL ._ _ 2 TX 22 | 1935 SEP |- | 5 IFL56 1935 NOV |- 2 | FL23 1936 JUN 1 ITX15 1936 JUL |- | 3 |FL313 1936 SEP 2 |NC22 1938 AUG I- 1 LA 14 1938 SEP 3' | NY 3', CT 3', RI 3', MA 3'2 | 1939 AUG |- 1 |FL12 1940 AUG |- 2 TX 2, LA 2

1940 AUG - 2 IGA 2 SC 22 1941 SEP 3 TX35 1941 OCT 2 |FL21 1942] AUG . I 1 |TX12 1942 AUG 1 3 TX31 1943 JUL 2 TX23 1944 AUG I- 1 NC 17 1944 SEP I-3* NC 3*, VA 3*, NY 3*, CT 3*, RI 3*, MA 211 11944 OCT |- 1 3 FL 31 1945 JUN - 1 FL 15 1945 AUG |- 2 TX 29 1945 SEP |- | 3 |FL35 19 -OCT |- | 1 FL13 | 1947 AUG |- | 1 |TX 14 11947I SEP - I 4 |FL4,LA3,MS38 1947 OCT - 2 FL 1, GA2, SC 25 1948 SEP - 1 LA .

7 1948 SEP |- 3 |FL3I

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15 1995| OCT IOpoal 3 [FL 32 1996 JUL IBertha | 2 NC 26 1996 SEP I Fran J 3 |NC3

11997 JUL JDanny J 1 LA 1, AL 12 1998 AUG |Bonnie 2 NC25 1998 | SEP E 1 1 |FL17 1998 SEP Georges | 2 |FL 2, MS22 |1999 1 AUG |Bret I 3 |_TX 36 j1999 SEP |Floyd | 2 |NC2

199 | OCT |Irene | 1 |FL 112 |2002 | OCT |Lili 1 |LA 1

Notes: Asterisks (*) indicate that all hurricanes in this category were moving in excess of 30 mpThe state abbreviations legend can be found in table 2. The information used for this appendix,from table 6 of the NOAA publication Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-199£(Neumann, et al. 1999). Additional data for the years 1999-2002 were obtained from the NationHurricane Center's web site using the updated Atlantic track file (Jarvinen, et al. 1984) through.

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Appendix B. Chronological listing of tropical storms affecting the Individual states, 1899-2002.

Storm | I Highest|Number Year Month | Name Category States affected1 1899 AUG I- _ _ FL5 1899 OCT I- I FL1 1900 SEP - 4 KS, MO, OK3 1900 SEP 7- AL, LA, MS6 1900 OCT - I FL1 1901 | JUN |- 1 AL2 11901 JUL |- I_ |jTX3 11901 JUL |- 1 |SC4 11901 AUG |- 2 IFL6 11901 SEP |- | |AL, FLGA8 |1901 SEP |- I |FL, GA1 |19021 JUN | |FL, GA, SC2 1902 JUN |- I_ |_TX4 11902| OCT |- | JAL,LA,MS3 _ 1903 SEP I 2 |AL, GA4 1903 SEP I 1 I PA2 31904 SEP I 1 |NC3 1904 1 OCT FL

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5 1904 NOV ____| AL, GA,LA, MS,SC3 1905 SEP -_ I LA,MS,AR5 1_905 OCT _ _ _ _|LA1 11906 JUN -. |AL, FL5 11906] SEP . |_3_|AR, MO9 1906 OCT FL1 |1907| JUN. |- | FL,GA2 |1907 SEP - AL,LA, MS3 |1907| SEP |- | |FL, GA,SC8 1908|I OCT |- | |SC1 1909] JUN 1- _ |TX2 |1909 JUN |- | FL6 1909| AUG - I IFL7 |1909| SEP |- | 4 |MS,AR8 1909 SEP 1 |FL4 1910 OCT |- 1 | GA, NC, SC1 1911 AUG 1 |MS1 19121 JUN | |AL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC

2 1912| JUL . ____GA

3 1912 SEP _ 1 |MS4 1913 OCT _ SC1 1914 SEP . AL,FL, GA,LA1 1915 AUG . FL,GA,SC4 |1915| SEP 1 IAL,GA5 |1915] SEP |- J 4 IMS2 |1916 JUL |- | 1 |ME3 |1916 JUL |- 1 NC7 1916 SEP |- _ _ NC8 19161 SEP | |FL

13 119161 OCT |-2 | KY,_TN3 1917] SEP 3 AL1 1918] AUG | 3 TX3 1918 AUG _ NC

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1 1919 I JUL IAL. FL2 1o1 SEP [- 2 AR4 19201 SEP |L_ - _|_FL

1 |1921 JUN _ ._ |j 2 |OK3 1922 OCT |- |_ |_AL3 1923] OCT - | 1 I MS, AR5 1923 OCT ____I |MA^6 11923 OCT 1 -_|_|_MS4 1924 SEP _____j 1 IGA1 11925| SEP __ TX2 1925 DEC _____j 1 |NC1 1926 JUL _ _ 2 |GA6 |1926 SEP |- | 4 LA, MS5 19271 OCT ______| GA SC, NC1 19281 AUG _ _ 2 I GA2 1928 AUG - AL, FL4 1928 SEP . 1 4 |MD, NC, VA, PA2 1929 SEPIOCTI - 3 IGA2 1930 SEP 1- | FL1 1931 1 JUN I- I | TX2 1931 JUL |- | | LA3 1932 SEP _ _ 1 |FL, MS5 1932 SEP I- I | FL6 1932 SEP LA I |LA8 (1932 OCT | - I | _LAMS

4 1933 JUL I I |TX6 |1933 AUG |- I |FL8 11933 AUG |- 2 MD, NY, PA12 | 1933 SEP - | 3 (GA1 |1934 MAY FL, SC2 11934 JUN . 3 MS, KY, TN, WV3 | 194I JUL 2 ( FL9 19341 OCT . (AL2 119351 SEP I _ _ 5 | GA, NC SC, VA

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j FL1 1936|1 JUN I|-4 1936| JUL j FLA

9 19361 AUG | |_|FL1 19371 JUL _ _ |FL

3 1937 AUG _FL

6 19371 SEP | _FL

9 1937 OCT 1 |LA

2 |19381 AUG | |TX

5 1938|1 OCT __ |_|TX7 |1938| OCT _ _ |FL,GA1 1939 JUN 1 |AL3 1939 SEP | |LA2 1940 AUG - 2 |FL

3 1940 AUG - 2 KY,TN

6 11940] SEP - LA1 J1941j SEP |- TX2 119411 SEP I- 3 LA,AR5 119411 OCT 2 GA,SC6 |1941| OCT | |FL

8 1942| OCT |- J |NC6 |1943| SEP |- | |LA7 1943 SEP/OCTI - | DE, MD3 1944 AUG |- 1 IDE,MD,NJ,VA6 1944 SEP |- |LAMS7 1944j SEP I- 3 IME11 1944 OCT |- 3 |NC,SC1 1945 JUN |- 1 |NC7 1945| SEP I- I |FL9 1945| SEP - 3 |GA,NC,SC,VA1 |1946 JUN | ILATX

2 |19461 JUL |NC5 |1946 OCT |- 1 IGA,NC,SC6 1946 NOV !- ! FL

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5 1979 SEP I Elena I TX6 j1979j SEP j Frederic 3 NY, KY, PA, TN, WV4 |19801 SEP |Danlelle [. |TX,2 1981 JUN/JUL I Bret IVA4 _ _ 19811 AUG ( Dennis IFL, NC, SC4 |119821 SEP I Chris I ILA, TX2 1983 AUG |Barry |FL

4 | 1983 SEP Dean VA10 1984 SEP Isidore FL2 1985 JUL |Bob 1 |FL, NC

19851 SEP Elena 3 LA.1985 SEP Henri NY

9 1985 OCT Isabel |_ |_FL, GA10 O198510CT/NOVlJuan IAL, FL11 | 1985 NOV |Kate 1 | GA, NC, SC1 1987 AUG } 2 TX2 1988 AUG . Beryl | |_LA3 1988 AUG Chris IGA, SC12 1988 NOV Keith | IFL1 1989 JUN Allison |TX8 1989 _SEP |Hugo | 4 | NC,VA,OH,WV13 19901 OCT I Marco__ I FL2 1991 AUG |Bob 2 ME2 11992 AUG | Andrew 4 MS5 1992 SEP Danielle DE, MD, VA, PA1 1993 JUN Arlene |TX1 1994 JUL Alberto | AL, FL

2 |1994 AUG Beryl | AL, FL, GA7 1994 NOV Gordon | FL1 1995 JUN Allison | FL, GA

4 |I19 JUL IDean I | TX5 1995 AUG Erin 1 2 AL, MS10 1995 AUG Jerry I FL

1s#_. //ws ...... dean _ __ -lhnns _^ IC h nAi 7Arfl4

-100' -95' -90' -85' -80 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55' -50' -45' -40' -35 -30' -25' -20650' -

40' 40'

as0 - - 305

25 t 25'20'20

15' 1 |

100 - lo' -5 8 -7

-100' -95' -90' -85' -80' -75' -70' -65' -60' -55' -50' -45' -40' -35' -30' -25' -20'

1. 4 .1nrn l011 gr flPwX P/5Jg/CCPal2OO3pDng 03/12/2004

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWEditor, EDGAR W. WOOLARD

VOL 72, No. 9 SEPTEIfBER 1944 CLOSED NOVEIER 944W. B. No.N 1419SSUE DEc~ rt 5,_1944

THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 8-16, 1944

By E. C. SUMNER

(Weather Beanc, Wasbhinton, D. C.1

DURING September 14 and the morning of the 15than intense hurricane, similar in many respects to the

destructive storm of 1938, lashed 900 miles of the eastcoast of the United States from Hatteras northward.The tracks of these two storms are reproduced in chart I.As they occurred in an interval of less than 6 years,. andwere the first intense tropical storms to -reach -the NewEngland area in over 50 years, they will probably cometo be known as the First and Second 'New EnglandHurricanes.' Earlier storms, apparently of tropical origin,have ravaged the same section, and a listing of thesestorms is given later in this report. Tracks for those of1815 and 1821, which by coincidence also occurred withina period of 6 years, are traced in chart II.*

The hurricane of September 17-291,' 193S, is recognizednot only is the most destructive storm to reach the coastsof -is country but also, from the standpoint of damagein .ted, as one of the two greatest disasters in 'the historyof the continent. Reliable estimates have placed propertydamage in the San Francisco Earthquake and in theEur.-icane of 1 03S at about the same figure-$350,000,000.

Several hurricanes have resulted in a greater number offatalities, notably: The South Atlantic Coast storm oflate August 1893, with a loss of about 2,000 lives; theLouisiana-MAississippi hurricane of early October* 1893,with an estimated 1,800 fatalities; the Palm Beach hurri-cane of September 1928, which resulted in 1,836 deaths;and the Galveston hurricane and tidal wave, September8, 1900, which took a toll of about 6,000 lives.

Although the hurricane of 1944 was probably of asgreat intensity as that of 1938 while it swept over theAtlantic east of Florida, several circumstances combinedto militate against the heavy casualties and propertydamage that occurred in the 1938 storm. First amongthem was a gradual filling of the depression, and a resultantdrop in wind velocity after the center passed Hatteras.This decrease in the pressure gradient, coupled with a;lower progressive movement than accompanied theearlier storm, brou ht the center to the heavily populatedzoastal regions of .ew England in a less vigorous formthan was evidenced in the hurricane of 1938.

'Trac of the LU15 buhiLne constructed by Ta=ahM, from taespaP'r clpplngm1Ieeted and abstracted by Sryes DarUng sad iublished tn The Americ=n Jotuls! of3elence and Arts. Vol KI.LI, pp. 243-232 Now Esven 1842 Track of e 13S11 hbnicsne.iccording to Redbeld.

HISTORY OF TEE HURRICANE

The existence of the 1944 hurricane was first suspectedon the 8th of September when a pressure fall, accoln-panied by erratic vwinds, was noted moving into the Wind-ward- Islands.. This disturbed condition later showed acirculation pattern. "At 4 p. m. (E. W. T.) on the 8th,the presence of a tropical disturbance was announced ina preliminary advisory radioed-from San Juan, P. R.

Since this light circulation did not-account for otherindications that a strong disturbance existed in the vicin-ity, a reconnaissance plane was dispatched on the 9th tosearch for 'a storm farther north. This flight located anintense storm in'the vicinity of latitude 21° N., longi-tude 60°-W., and later reconnaissance proved it to be a.fully developed hurricane moving in a west-northwesterlydirection: -

From this point -to 'the northeast of the LeewardIslands the hurricane drifted west-northwestward, in theprevailing air stream, until further reconnaissance lo-cated the center off the northern Bahama Islands nearlatitude 27° N., longitude 74° W. on the 'evening of the12th. .At this stage of its progress the hurricane was solarge and violent that the term- "Great Atlantic Hurri-cane" was adopted in advisory messages from Miami inorder to convey a proper description.

A weather officer aboard an army reconnaissance planewhich became involved in the storm estimated the windat about -140 miles per hour. He reported turbulence sogreat that with the pilot and copilot both at the controlsthe plane could not be kept under control, and severaltimes it was feared it would be torn apart or crash out ofcontrol. -When they returned to base it was found that150 rivets had been sheared off on one wing alone.

At about 9 p. m. of the 12th, the storm was centerednear the 75th meridian and th'e e.cpected recurve to thenorthward became apparent. -Mloving almost due north,at a rate of 25-30 miles per hour, the center passed justeast of Hatteras at about 9:20 a.7m. (E. W. r.) on the14th. Then turning slightly to the northeastward itmoved up the coast, at an accelerated speed of about 40miles per hour, and crossed over eastern Long Island atabout 10 p. m. of the snme date. Moving inland aboutan hour later near Point Judith, R. I., the center crossed

18781594-11-44--i

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW SErTEMBER 1944

the States of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, passinga short distance southeast of Boston, and moved intoMassachusetts Bay shortly after 1 a. In.

'The center again passed inland, on the Maine coast,' later crossed southeastern Newv Brunswick near the

head of the Ba, o'f Fundv. Late on the 15th it passedover Newfoundlabd and finall merged with an extra-tropical cyclone southeast of Greenland.

PRESSURE

'The lowest pressure so far reported for the 1044 hurri-cane is 947.2 imillibars (27.97 inches) recorded atHatteras,N. C., about 8:20 a. In. of the 14th. The reading is only0.12 of an inch hiher than the low pressure of 943.1millibars (27.85 inches) observed aboard the S. S. C&-inthiaduring the hurricane of 1938. It is quite possible that,when readings of barometric Pressure become availablefrom ships heavily involved in' the recent stoim evenlower readings than 'those above will be reported.'

The lowest sea-level pressure oii'record is areading of26.185 inches taken on August 18, 1927, aboard theDutch steamship Sapoeroea, while she was involved-in aPacific typhoon 460 -miles of the Island of Luzon in thePhilippines. The lowest sea-level pressure on record in theWestern Hemisphere is 26.35 inches, recorded in theFlorida Kers storm of September 2, 1935.

EiNDS

The highest wind velocity recorded by instrument wasan e:treme velocity of 134 miles per hour, observed atapproximately 12:20 p. m. on September 14,'at CapeHenry, Va. Maximum wind velocities equaled or ex-

ded all previous records at Hatteras, Cape Henry,Atlantic City, New York, and Block Island.

Stations in table 1, a summary of meteorological con-ditions accompanying the 1944 hurricane, are arrancned ina time sequence corresponding, as nearly as possible, tothe order in which they were affected by the storm

TIDES AND INUNDATIO1N

Fortunately, and in 'contrast to the hurricane of 1938,the recent storm struck inland over Connecticut, RhodeIsland and southeastern Massachusetts at a time ofnormahy low tide. In addition the latest storm struckthe coast obliquely, with. coastal points on the left orweaker side of the center. As a result the great storm tidewhich is created by the stronger winds in the 'riohthandquadrants, expended most of its force at sea. so tideheights were recorded in the recent storm which evenremotel y approach the 20- to 25-foot levels. registered in1938.

LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY DAMIAGE

A total of 300 lives were lost as a. result of the 1944hurricane, a large proportion of them as -a result of 'Marine'

casualties. The 46 deaths listed as occurring along thecoastal areas of the 'United States is less than 10 percentof the 494 featalities resulting from the storm of 1938.Heavy marine casualties wvere directly related to in-tensified patrol Work and other exigencies resulting fromwar conditions. Prbperty damage Gas been estimated at' roxirmately $100,000,000 or about one-third tha~te..Inated for the 1938 hurricane.

A survey of the hurricanes of the past 50 years showsthat a constantly-improving hurricane warning servicehas brought about a progressive reduction in the numberof deaths per unit of hurrinane damage. A tabular break-down of casualties and damage, by States, is included intable 4.'

- WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

A total of .51 warnings and advisories were issued bibthe .Hurricafie Warning Centers at San Juan,; MiasriiWashington, and Boston. Prompt, dissemination. ofthese wrnings by news distributing aencies r'esulted'inthe evacuation of thousands bf persons in threatenedareas, and the safeguarding from storm damage, insofaras was possibld.of pr6tectable property. In New YorkCity, durinig the.priod -of stormri inquiries from September12 to 15 inclusive,. fi total of 289,4SG calls Were receivedover. the autoniatic telephone 'system.

HISTORICAL .STORMS OF N . ENGLAND

Below are descriptions of three of the most severe NewEngland hurricanes. -'Other storms, probably all' oftropical origin, which'se-ioualy affected the New EnglandStates occurred on.August -19, '1788; September 8, 1869;October 23-24, 1878; and August 24, 1893.

August 15; 1635. Probably the earliest tropical stormon rec6rd in'New England'began -li6rtly 'after midnightwith heavy rainand' a wind tat had shied ifron south-southwest to northeast.. Later the > wind' 'increased -Inviol'nce'*nd'las ackompaenid by- torrential rain. . Afterthe gale had continued 5 -o'6 hours, the wind chdiiged tonorthwest and graduhlly subsided. During that month ahurricane possibly the same storm in .an earlier stageoccurred between Martinique and 'St. Kitts.

September 22-23, 1815. The- "Great September Gale'!of 1815 wvas bne ofthe most destrctive huirricanes toreach' New'.England." Heaviest 'damage occurred inRhode Islaid and central Alassachusetts. '.On the coastof Connecticut'high tides and hurricaine winids destroyedmany buildings and numerous vdsseli were driven ashore.The stoim began on September 22 and reached its heightshortly before noon on the fdllowing day. This' storm;which had moved up from the IVWt Indies, had beenrecorded at St. Bartholomew on the 18th. A survey. 6fthe dama e caused' by this hurricine6 convinced W. C.Redfield tEat the storm was a "progressive w'hirlwind,"'and as a rsiulthe began his study of cyclonology

*September 3, 1821. The center 4of this destructivehurricane crossed the western 'pa of Long Island aiid'passed niorthward'into Connecticut..

*.Complete acedints of most of these eiirly New Englandstorms can be found in Historic St6ims of New England"by Sidney Perley, The Saem' Press, 1891."

* *COwrEDGUI.NT8

The Weather Bureau wishes to. express its sincereappreciation to the many organizations and agencieswhich perfornmed essential roles in vitalizing the HurricaneWarning Service.

To the Arny Air. Forces newly organized WeatheUnit goes credit for the early detection of the storm, andfor securmng fixes on the center, direction of movements,and wind mtensities, at a time whendthe hurricane w*sstill some distance east of Antigua n the West Indies,and 5 days before signs indicative of such a circula9ti6lcould have beon picked up on the Atlantic coast. Withthe absence of radio weather reports from ships, thisaircraft' reconnaissance service, which is employed' bythe Army, Navy, and Coast Guard, was the only source'ofearly obseivational data.

Equally. appreciated is the unqualified support givenby all newsIdistributing agencies who, through their vastfacilities, wrere charged wh getting the warnings to thepublic. Personnel of the iewspapers and the radio net-works bent every effort toward the fufirlment of this trhyt.

SEP'TrnEP 1944 MONTMTY WElATHER REVIEW 189

T"LEi 1.-Meteorological data for the hurricane of Sept. 8-16, 1944, E. S. T. 1

Lowest W elct a d Mal~~ wn Time of '1 . elocity and Ti eo Velocity of o rsoinstto rsue lowest time oirecowestfor nmn direction erme extreme winds over

Pres ssre e of lss alt a 3velocity (fastest Miae veoiy got 33 milest r s u e ei d v l ct rm re.gister) Per hour

NorfolbetY Cc........... ..C ..... . . . . ....Cape Ilsrrr, Va.Tr t a ntn~ tyr-I........ .....................FbiaIddpbL¶3. P3 ...........................,New YekkN..Y..............................New Haven. Con;................. .......

Hlar rti f o r .... . C............. ............

Nantnc1et, Mans....Fal Pi ss....e.............s .... . ....

South Weymouth, s M............... .. ...BluetonS. 5M s..................................Coacord. W 2... a.........................* Gloucesrer 2.ass ............... .............

Rockpoit 1 u.. ..... a s s............... ..Concord. NW. H...............................Portland, . M ind . ....... . . ............Bangor. Maine... -------- . .... . .................Eastpor: . an ................... .......111111nodkec.2Malne .......... .... .....* Houitor.- f.aline-.....Extreme Pressure a d hg etvlcte . .

27.97Z. 8323.1123. Sd23. 73

29.3123.042S. SC28.942M.412S. 34.2&. 4S323.0425. a23.922"' AA

am0 a10:35 a11:45 a12'10 P

6:50 p6:40 P6:40 p7:16 p8:50 p0:50 p9:45 p

l0:-09 P1-lo0p

1128 p10:30 P10:S0 P

17 NE..........

17 NE.-...58 SW.....

10 NW. I85 NW ....43 N.32 N . .....

-StI N '.....33 N......80 N......is3.......82. SE'..43 SE .....57 SW.....

10-00 a10:30 aI1Z0 a

6:43 p

7r.27 pII= p

100i1 P1117, p

Ito02W..

73 .........134......91 NE....34 .........

38 NE....62 N .. . ....

49...79 ......

1:13 p

10:0 p

12:45 a

950.

801L......

96 ..........

C03 I... ....

6

47

i

03)4

72

. . ---- I- ------ I------I-------------I.........I.......- AIN E ....

.. . ........... I..........I.........I.........I. .... I.....I..........-----

2&.6223.76ZS..61"L .6029.1623.01

3. 14

23.37.2'A. ST

12:11 a1826 a1:10 a

12-:10 a1:00 a1:45 a3:10 a6:00 aS:00 aI730 a7:40di

12 NW .. . ....15 NN-E....286 N...._.20 NE I....IS ENE....

a N..........

19 NNE....is N .-----

60.dot.........41 NE ........

40 NE....40HE........40..is.........

90' W .----

10:40 pIC:= p9:43 p

10:50 p1:S5 a

12:05 aIM3 a7:30 IL3.50 -a8130 aG.=4 a

72 NE....

40..

134 .... _

10:43 p

7:00 a3:621 a

601 ......." .......

- lEh.-1 i7 .

1.. . . .0.. . 2...

.. . ....

I oxyersnts observatiown taken on the 14th and 15Sth of September. I Estimnated.*Idrtrxled before highest velocity. # Claocked for 4 seconds (10:07 p).

I .Wlad taken from indicator. H1 R Wind taken trom hourly record.

I Equals or exceeds all previous reeords.

T.BLE 2.-Comparative data on the hurricanes of Sept. 17-21, 1988, T&aBLE.4.-Fatalilies, casuallies, and property damage in theand Sevt. 8-16. 19.1.4 cane of Sept. 8-16. 194.4*

Stor= 1933 14

Dateo- - - ---.-- Sept. 17%-21, I033..... SePt. 8.16. 1IN4'aeweefrtrpre.Newr21N~.* 6?`W_..:: Located by aircraft reaon-naissaince near 22., N.,

62.5 AN.Coast tnes crossed.-----New York and Connecticut. New York. Connecticut.

Rhode Island. bMassaqhn-setts, and Maine.

Lowest lbaroeter report- 943.1 milllbars (27.83 inches)ed at tsea.- S. S. ChrintAia.

Lowest Aaraineter report- M4.2 mifllibars; (27.94 Inches) 047.2 mnillibars (27.97, inches)ed aLnrZ coast. at Bellport Coast Guard at Hatteras, N. C.

Station. Long Island, AN.

Mfaxlimu wind veloc~ty $7 rsper hour from the Estimated 00 mfllesper hourand detfou for a S. Southwest at Providence, fromi the vest at ilsttgras,rainurz period. Rt. L, Blue Hill, I51 S.1I N. C.

Extreme -wind velocity ...... .......... 154 mIles per hour at Capeand .4floaction (fastest Henry, Va.M Be ftom rezister).

Veloci:-,of extreme gust- 158 mle pebour at Blue Estimated IS0 miles per bowrHill Obscratory, Milton, at Cape Renry, Va.M-ass.

Place of dissipation ..... Onterlo, Canada .M...... er-ged with extra-tropicaltow In the north Atlanticocean southeast of Green-land.

Number of persons kIlled.. 494 lives lost in New York 45 lives lost along thoesestand the New England coast. 344 lost at sea.States.

Estmastad. dms a -e .--- S0.000,000 to " S3000.000.. APProxImatel7 $100,000,000.

I The extremely high wind at Blue Hill at some distance from the burrtcnane center.enn partally to attributed to the upslope eilect at that station. Winds at the level ofthre surrxudIng ecunt:y were considerabl? lower.

T.4.U~ S.-Slorm tides during the hurricanes of Sept. 17-21, 1O38,and Sept. 8-16, 19A4 _____

Stae .on ofTim e ofHighest Tibje tif Eighest Eh'hbestdtde

Fgd FeeHatterus.X. C ..... 0 $zoo . M.. 7.0 :30 a. m.R orfo lk.V a4.4 1:30P.M. 6.8 12±0Op. vCaps Hffiry Va --------- 4.0 10:15 a. ns: 'RB 12:4 P. m.

Yedrk.iLY .. :............ &4 4.30p.mt.. 6.4 8:30P. M.W Hivcn.Conn............ 9.4 9:00P. M_ 10. 5 l0.l P. M.

,b~ien It. L............ 17.6 6.00 p.mI.. 12.0 10:45P. M.Doston, If ns.............. 11.3 ... ...... I 10:45 p.m.

I Height above mean low tide.3'Storm tides for the 1933 hurricane were observed on Sept. 21 and those for 1044 00

Sept. 14.IEstic-ated.

IOther OtherKildIlrdHomes Homes build. build. Boats Boats

State KildInjrddo- dam. Isigs tags do- dam-s troyed &;ed de- dam. stroyed . aged

s troyed aged

Conneo t~cut 4 0 60 642 8U 00 4,550 .........Delaware-__. 0 -0 1.8gm0... 8.. 10 0 .

MSaryland ..... 0 0 0 6.50 15 3......Massachusetts .. 26 9 23 3.8SW 1U8 915 110 6 34N ew Jersey . ... 9 32.3 463 3.066A 217 635 21 101New York .... 6 1 117 2,427. 272 8322.... ----

NothCaolra_ 1 4 2.8 318 so0 351.... . --.-Ilhode 7siand.... 0 4 03 S.62_5 188 7,07 .......Virgaina.......I 0 0 0 1.310 31 72.

To Si.......9.t2~i 18 1 65 2 3 3

I A release by the public relations oficle of the Nith Naval district lists 344 men, deador missing. from S vessels wrecked and sunk during the hurricane of Sept. S-16. 1941.The casunltlir were from ihe destroyer H'aavisgtas* ithe Coast Guard cutters Jraebo"and .Hcdioee the light vessel Vineyard &ound, and the minesweeper VUS-40l9. Thecutters capsized and sank while protecting a Liberty Ship torpedoed off the NorthCarolina coast, Iand the light vessel dragged anchor and sack about 2 miles to the north-eastward of her station of fMartha's Vineyard, M.%ass.

Fatalities, casuaotjes, and property damage in the hurricane of'Sept. 17-21, 1938*IHomes Homes Other Otuidh oaseoas

state Kiled Injuredl de- dam- btild. I ns d- dam..is troyed aged fatis de ig stoed gertroyed da-3rydae

Connecticut .... 07 I'm 101 1. 1. 1.233L 2.301 .........Massachuntsett 117 331 :)8 3. 0211 1.111 Z 406 .... ....

New Hampshire.. 12 32 31 1.051 232 1,133 .... ....Now Jersey.---- 0 0 0 21 0 0 .........New York ..... 60 S1 6T 405 155 173 .........RthodeIsland ..... CT 204 441 L.373 877 719.... ... -Vermont.1.... 1 I 3 22.4 03 328 .........

Total..... 494 `9 3.5&i4 7.20 2. 3,309

*Condensed from reports released by the A1merican Rled Cross.

I'll

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWEditor, EDGAR W. WOOLARD4

VOL. 72, No. 12W. B. No. 1429 DECEMBER 1944 CLOSED FEBRUAa Y 5, 1945

ISSUED MARCH 5, 1945

NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OF 1944

By E. C. SCUxznE[lwttber Buranu, Wasbingtcn, D. C.. December :9H4 :

THE intense Atlantic coast hurricane of September 8-16.and the Florida-Cuba storm of October 13-21, each of

which wrought damage in excess of S100,000,000, carriedthe hurricane season of 1944 into second position amongthe most. destructive years of record. The historicaNew England hurricane of September 17-21, 1938, whichfrom the viewpoint of property damage was probably thegreatest natural disaster ever to befall the country, placedthe season of 1938 at the top of the list. Other seasonshave been more costly in the loss of human life, notablythat of 1900 during which the great Galveston hurricanecaused the death of about 6,000 persons.

Although the number of tropical disturbances detectedduring tbe past season was only slightly above the averageof 8.6 storms per year for the last decade, the season of1944 was notable for the high percentage of storms thatdeveloped full hurricane minds along the Atlantic coastnorth. of Florida. No tropical disturbances of any -con-3equ~ence struck the Gulf coast of the United States westof -rida, although two huiricanes moved inland or. theMi.. scan east coast and caused considerable damage.

Aicraft reconnaissance which was inaugurated duringthe 1943 season was extensively used for securing earlyfixes oil tropical disturbances during the past year, andbrought the Hurricane Warning Service an excellent newtool for detecting the'presence and probable movement oftropical hurricanes.

Below are reviews of the individual hurricanes and tropi-mal disturbances of 1944 taken in the main from stationreports. A synopsis of some of the more important fea-cures ot these storms is given in the tabular listing at theend of this summary; and their tracks numbered I to X,2hronologically. are plotted on the accompanving chart.

I. Tropical disturbance of July 12-19.-The first tropicalstorm of the season developed cast of the Bahama Islands)n the 14th of July from a wave disturbance that had been:raced from the eastern Caribbean Sea, where it was firstaoted near the Grenada Islands on the 11th. It moved;1irouzh Mlona Passage on the evening of the 192th withoutihowving signs of development. The first evidence of in-reasin- intensitv was noted as it neared Turks Island on

;he 13th, and by the 14th a definite circular wind patternlad been established. At this time the Bahama Islandsvere reporting fairly high ocean swells moving on the coastrt the rate of about six per minute.

Moving north-northw.restward and increasing slowly inntensitv the center reached a position near latitude'31l;o 32° N., longitude 76° W., by the evening of the 15th,Lt -li4ch tune a slowing of progressive movement was evi-le' and the subsequent recurve toward the northeast)egan. Bermuda reported winds of approximately 40niles per hour as the center passed about 250 miles to theiorthwest of that station. No strong gwinds were re-

ported from stations along the east coast of the UnitedStates. Althouglh no actual observations of hurricanewinds are available over ocean areas, it is believed thatthis storm was of hurricane force from about the time itcurved to the northeastward.

II Tropical storm-July 24-26.-On July 24 a smalldisturbance was noted east of Martinique and Santa Lucia.About 7 p. 'm.1 of that date the center passed betweenthose islands and a maximum wind of 55 miles per hour-was reported from Fort de France,. a town which had beenall but destroyed by the disastrous hurricane of August1891.

The disturbance moved rather rapidly west-north-westward and was located by -aircraft reconnaissancenear latitude 160 N., longitude' 67° W., at 2:30 p. m. onthe 25th. After this fix the center was not again defi-nitely located, but there were positive evidences that itwas near the coast of Haiti not far south of Port au Princeon the mnorning of the 26th. A wind of 70 knots was en-countered by an airplane near this point (exact locationand elevation unknown), and the Port -au Prince upperair soundings shouted winds aloft of hurricane force, waithsqualls of 35 miles per hour at the surface. "Consider-able damage" was reported from the town of Jacmel onthe coast south of Port au Prince. Indications are thatthe small center struck the high mountains of the HaitianPeninsula and was broken up. It is not believed thatwinds of hurricane force accompanied this storm at thesurface, but that velocities of about 60 miles per hourmarked its entire course.

III. Hurricane-July 30-August 4.-The first tropicalstorn of 1944 to reach the coast line of the United Statesformed east of the Bahamas during the night of July 30-31from a wave that, during the previous 2 days, had movedfrom the region northeast of Puerto Rico. The centerwas definitely located by reconnaissance about 175 milesnortheast of v'assau at about 7 a. Il. on the 31st. Movingnorth-northwestward the storm approached 'the NfortlCarolina coast with slowly increasing intensity andmoved inland south of Southport at about 7 p. m. onAugust 1. The diameter of the storm was snall butreports indicate that winds were of hurricane force.

The Coast Guard station on Oak Island reported awind of 59 miles per hour before the wind indicatorfailed at 4:30 :p.' m. Winds increased thereafter and atabout 5:50 p m. -were estimated at 70 to 80 miles perhour. The lowest observed pressure 29.22 inches (989.5millibars) occurred on Oak Island at 6:30 p. m.

The Wilmington Weather Bureau Office, located about20 miles inland, reported a maximum velocity (maintainedfor a 5-minute period) of .40 miles per hour, an extreme

IAll times referred to La this sammary are eastern standard.

237

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW DCEMuBrn 1944

7elocity of 52 miles per hour, and a lowest pressure of29.43 inches (996.6 millibars3.

Damage to property and crops in the Wilmington areaat Ben estimated at about S2,000,000. On the beaches,

rdl-.4cularly at Carolina and Wrichtsville, many housesind cottagees were destro-ed or -had their foundationsundermined by Nigh tides and extremely high s as.tubstandally built structur ei not subject to under:miningby water action went through the stormi without damage.A guest at the Ocean Texrjite Hotel, Wrightsville Beach,who had retired early, awvoke the mnorning after the stormand found, after a sound night's sleeD, ihat she was thesole occupant of a hotel from whiclh everyone else hadbeen evacuated. Property lotsse in the city of Wilrrunp-ton have been reported as totaling about $60,000. tind inSouthport-the danmage fiture has been plced at Ig0,000.Slight storm damage was reported irom the *beachesnorth of WNilmington.

Crop damage was heaviest in the counties of 2\NewHanover, Brunswick, Onslow, and Pender. The countyagent of -N-ew Hanover County has estimated crop losst'sfor the entire area at S1,209,000.

M-lore than 10,000 persons were evacuated frot beachesand e-xposed locations in advance of thie storm, and as aresult no lives v.-ore lost and few serious injuries werereported.

Moving north from the Wilnirligton rea the centerbeguan a recurve to the norTheastwtird, passed near Rich-mond and Weashlitton about noon of the 2d, and movedout to sea near it antic Cit-% where nn extreme wind of38 miles per hour was recorded duiinc the afternoon' of thesame day. At Washington, 6.15 inches of rain fell duringRa -hour period as the storm center passed east of thaten.>. This amount, the second heaviest 24-hour fall in71 years of record at that station, is exceeded only bythe 7.31 inches that accompanied passage of an earlierhurricane on August 11-12, 192-S. There is no indicationthat tbe storm regained intenst;v over the oceall ns itskirted the southern New Enhgland coast.

IV. Hurricane of August 16-235.-This smnll intensestorm was first noted east of Barbndos on the lbtlh.Passirnr south of Barbados and over thbe Grenada Jslandiduringl tle nibht it entered tbe Coriblbenn not far fromSt. VfiIcent abort. 8:30 a. m. on the 17th.

On the morning of August 18, a vessel, el) route fromNew Orleans to Buenos Aires, -fwas heavilv involved in tLkestorm rnear 15°i0' N., 60640' W. or about 180 mlS les southof Puerto Rico. The muster reported a low barometerrending, of 2S.74 inches (973.3 millilbars) which coincidedin time with a 5-to 10-minute calni which aecompaniedpassage of thc storm center. A fall in baromletric pressureof 40 millibars in 3 hours preceded the low reading and asimilar rise in the same spnee of rime followed passage ofthe center. Winds were estimated at 70 to C0 miles perhour with ceiling arid visibility zero. Evcen wvith fullspeed ahead to reduce poulldillng GnI the port side it Wasvirtually impossible to keep the Cvessel of S.49S gross tons,and a nmaximum speed of 14 knots, lweaed into the windsince the ship was swungt, to-and-fro by the force of the.

Followingr its west-nortli'vest course the lunricalneA.t inlntd over the soutlheast coast of Jamraics, in the

I. .tou Bey nrca, shortly before noon on tbe 20th andpassed off thle twestern const near Mlontego Bay sone hourslIter. The stornm lost muchl of its intensitv as it. crossedthe island, for w^indes ftll from ani estimnted 100 to 120miles per hour on the east coast to 80 miles per ho]ur in thevicinity of BMontero where d(namnre was not serious.

uinzston in the rizlht-hand semicircle of lesser windsreported a marndmani of 60 miles per hour from the west-southwest and a low pressure of 29.50 incnes (999.0 milli-bars). Heavies;n damage occurred in the main bananaand coconut belt, two cropis -whieh are aniong the nmostimportant on the Islanld. Press photos show thlat onsoxne of the large coconut plantations, in the more seriouslYaffected aree!s, not a tree was left standin=.

The hurricane center passed 1ear Grafnd Caviman Islandon the 21st with winds of 80 to 90 mniles per hour, in gusts,

and more tlan 20 gusts over S0 miles per hour reported.No damnage reports have been received from GrtndCayman.

On the morning of the 20d the center moved inland onthe west coast of YucAau aa short distance south of Cozu-mel Island. and while it lost force in passing over thePeninsula, it emerged into the Gulf of M1exico intact andmoved westward into Mexico a short distance south ofTuxpan. According to press reports at least 12 deathswere caused inland in M\ exico as a result of floods thatamcompanied dissipation of the storm.

A conservative estimate of fatalities resulting from thishurricane, taken from incomplete statistics, places loss oflife at 216. M\Iarine casualties include a British snilinc,vessel vwhich disadpeared near the Grenada Islands with74 persons aboard, nl! of whom are presunmed lost; andthc. 110-foot motorship I.Tand Tradler, out of Mtfianmi forBelize, vwhich was reported lost off Yucntan without detailsof loss of life and cargo being given. In addition vaxiousdegrees of damage have been reported from other ships.

Estimates of property damnage are incomplete but willtotal several million dollars. rExtremely heavy crop losseswere suffered on Jamaica, where a crippling blow wasdoalt rowers, exporters, and industrialists depcundent iponthe hbchlv important banana and coconut yields. Themost autboritative estimate of the mlrdber of coconuttrees destroved on the whole Island is 41 percent, whilebanana trees which were concentra'ted in'the stricken zone,were about 90 percent destroyed. Damage figures ior*other areas affected by the hurricane are not available.

V. Minor tropical distarbance of August 20-.2.-Development of a circulation and nn increase in intensitywas noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in an isallo-baric wave that for soine timo had been moving westwardthrough the Caribbean. The disturbance continued awestward or west-northlwestward movement and crossedthe M1exican coast south of Brownsville about noon of the22fd. Hliahest, winds observed at coastal stations were34 miles per hour at Fort Isabel and 32 miles per hour atBrownsville. The disturbance did not develop winds ofmore than moderate gale force.

VI. The intense ANew Enqland hurricane of September8-16.-The second most destructive hurricane in the

history of the country struck inland over Long Island onSeptember 14, took a toll of 390 lives (including marinecasualties), and wrought property damage of overS100,000,000.

A complete report of this hurricane, in lwhich listings oflowest pressures, highest winds, tides, fatalities, and prop-erty damage are tabulated and compared withl lil-.e figuresfor the great. New England hurricane of September 193S,can be found iL thel MONTHLTY WrUTHUR REVIEw, SCPtem-bor 1944; 72: 187-hS9.

VII.. Tropical disturbance of Seytember 8-10.- A partialwind circulation, evident early in the afternoon of Sep-tember 7, developed and .within the next 36 hours isobarswith cyclonic curvature covered the entire west Gulf, andsuggested a complete -wind circulation with center near

DEcE:wBm 1944 EMONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 239

latitude 230 N., longitude 940 W. First moving north-ward and turning to the northeastward during the 9th it.reached the vicinity of Mobile late on the 10th, accorn-,rauied by heavy washing rains that continued for about

hours and moderate to fresh, occasionally gusty, east-erly wnvds.

At Mobile a low pressure of 29.63 inches -(1,003.4 milli-bars).was reached at.2 45 p. in. on the 10th. At approxi-mately the same time, the windjreached a maximumvelocity of 18 miles per hour from the .south with a fewgusts reaching 30 miles per-hour.- Penisacola Naval AirStation reported a maximum wind velocity of 54 milesper hour.

High tides and heavy rains vWere responsible for prac-tically all of the damage reported. 'High tide in theMobile River, reached shortly before .the.computed timeof low tide, was 3.8 feet above sea level, the highest tidesince September 1, 1932. The heaviest 24-hour rainfallsince 1937, 7.04 inches, was retisteied'at Mobile.. Otherexcessive 24-hour falls included 9.50 inches at Springhill,10.15 inches at Riv-er Falls, and 11 inches at BellingrathGardens about 295 miles south of Mobile;

Streets in Mlobile'werc looded to depths ranging from6 to 1S inches, and rain water backed into the lower floorsof some homes in the southern section of the city. Inthis area small boats were used on some streets betiveen10 a.' m. and 3 p. m. on the' 10th. The bridge causewaywas closed part of the afternoon when water to a depth of1 foot. washed over it. No fatalities or injuries resultingfrom the storm have been reported.

Reduction of various crops in Mobile and Baldwincounties as a result of flooding have been estimated as' 'lows: corn 15 percent, soy beans 10 percent, hay 40

d.cent, peanut hay 30 percent, and fall potatoes 40percent.

VIII. Hurricane of September 19-21.-Forming from awave in .the Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Channel,this storm quickly developed a small center with windsof about hurricane force and moved into northern Yuca-tan on the 20th: Curving toward the southwest and

passing south of M-erida, it entered the Gulf of Mlexico atCarmpeche about midnight of the 2Oth-21st. Traversinga small extent of the Gulf the center reentered. Mexicobetween Coatzacoalcos and Ciudad del Carmen in the lateafternoon of the 21st. Reports received from Yucatanand from aircraft indicate a very small center with winds6f 75 miles per hour throughout tho life of this storm.

Although no figured estimates of total damage in Mexicoare available, it is known that floods and resultant land-slides did extensive daimnage to transport and communica-tion systems.

Press reports indicate that 200-300 persons drowned infloods that occurred in the Isthmus of Tehuanepec, and 2or 3 crew members were lost in the sinking of a Mexicanschooner of 150 tons off the coast of Caampeche.

IX Slight tropical disturbance of October 1-2.-Develop-jng from distuirbed and squally conditions that had beennoted east of the Lesser Antilles, during the several daysprevious, this disturbance moved. northward near the60th meridian into a strong trough that existed east ofBermuda. The storm did not develop hurricane windsand no reports of damage to shipping have.been'rdecived7

X. The severe Florida-Cuba hurricane of October 18-01.-A detailed report on this storm, which took a toll of over.300 lives and resulted in total property damage exceeding$100,000,000, is contained in the No0TrHLY W'EATHERREVIEVw, November 1944; 72: 221-223.* Slorm.-On November 2 at iabout 5:30 a. in. a vessel,

involved in a storm near latitude 11° N., longitude 82036'. W., sent a report of a 60 knot wind from the west,pressure 29.60 inches (1,002.4 millibars), seas mountain-ois, and vessel laboring heavily. Similar conditions werereported for about 3 hours, during which time the vesselcalled for assistance. The storm dissipated or smoved in-land a short time later as aircraft reconnaissance early onthe following day failed to locate any disturbance. Sinceit is impossible to trace a movement, from available re-ports, or to determine whether the ship weas involved in.asmall hurricane or a very severe squall, this storm iscarried as a matter of record, and it is not listed as atropical disturbance of the past season.

Fop- IdrAu 000

IMPORTANT....INSURANCE INQUIRIES. Certified data CAN ONLY be obtained through the NationalClimatic Data Center

* Storm Surveys of Gaston. Visit the Certified Consulting Meteorologist web site via the AMS OR. NWS INDUSTRIAL METEOROLOGY web site.

Tropical storm Gaston brought intense rainfall and isolated tornados to south central Viriginia. Clickon the thumbnail graphics and look for updates to this page during the next 48 hours.

Richmond 24hr Rainfall Records

|x Clickthumbnail ofRadarPrecipitationTotals

24 Hour RadarProducedStorm TotalRainfall

i9orm Date (nhs1 J Connie Aug 12, 19551 8.792 Gaston Aug 30, 20041 6.683 if if Sept 15-16, 65

___~ lod 1999 5.58I|_4_|[ Danny ||[Au; 18, 1985 IL__5.58_|IAug 14- 195

Hurricane| Aug 14-15, 7 |5__J #2 11 1940 *

| 6 Isabel 11Sept.18, 2003|| 4.32 |

http:flwww.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx.events/hur/GASTON/gaston.htm 09/08/2004

Graphic of Official & Unoffical storm KAIN L R OM OFFICIAL NWS

UNOQE1(;CAL RAINFALL TOTALSX OM AOTHER__ _ .'WE ATE R SOURCES

totalsA' gliData will be updated further!

Click the above images for further Gaston views.

I

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... UPDATED FOR NEW KENT AND CHRONOLOGYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA920 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERNVIRGINIA ON MONDAY AUGUST 30 2004. THIS SYSTEM SPAWNED NUMEROUS WEAKTORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NWS PERSONNEL CONDUCTED STORMDAMAGE SURVEYS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CONFIRMED TWELVE TORNADOES.THIS NUMBER MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY SINCE WE HAVE A FEW MORE SITES TOSURVEY. ALL OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED AT FO ON THE FUJITA SCALE.FO TORNADOES HAVE WINDS LESS THAN 73 MILES PER HOUR.

..TIME..... DATE...

..EVENT....MAG....

.REMARKS..

... CITY LOCATION ...LAT.LON...

..COUNTY LOCATION... ST.. -SOURCE....

1210 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

4 WNW CENTER STARDINWIDDIE

37.13N 77.70WVA NWS STORM SURVEY

FO TORNADO. TREES DOWN/DAMAGED..SHED LIFTED UP AND THROWNINTERMITTENTLY ALONG A PATH FROM 4 WNW CENTER STAR TO 1 WFORD.

0110 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

3 W BLACKSTONENOTTOWAY


MINIMAL DAMAGE. SHEET METAL ROOFING RIPPED OFF OF CHURCH.

TOPS OF TREES SNAPPED OFF.

0120 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

CLAREMONTSURRY

37.23N 76.97WVA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN.. .MINOR BUIILDING DAMAGE. TORNADO BEGAN NEARCLAREMONT AND ENDED IN THE UPPER BRANDONS PLANTATION AREAOF NORTHEAST PRINGE GEORGE COUNTY. PATH LENGTH APPROX 2MILES.

0135 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

HOPEWELL 37.29N 77.30WCITY OF HOPEWELL VA NWS STORM SURVEY

FO TORNADO IN APPOMATTOX MANOR AREATREES BLOWN DOWN/DAMAGED. DAMAGE TOTREE DAMAGE SEEN FROM THIS POINT TOCHESTER.

OF HOPEWELL. 25 TO 30SHED. INTERMITTENTABOUT 2 MILES NW OF

0142 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

3 NW JAMESTOWNJAMES CITY


50 YARDS WIDE. INTERMITTENT PATH 3 MILES. FROM NEARWILLIAMSBURG ARPT TO JAMESTOWN HIGH SCHOOL.

0240 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO


37.24N 76.79WVA OFFICIAL NIS OBS

20 YARDS WIDE. 2/10 MILES LONG. NEAR DRUMMONDS FIELDSUBDIVISION AND THE JAMES RIVER.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx..events/hur/GASTON/pns.txt 09/08/2004

rage ul 0

0332 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFo

POQUOSON 37.13N 76.38WCITY OF POQUOSON VA NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN ON RIVER ROAD AND WYTHE CREEK ROAD.

0333 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

HAMPTONCITY OF HAMPTON

37.05N 76.29WVA COUNTY OFFICIAL

HALL ROAD. SHED AND TREE DAMAGE.

.0356 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOP0

2 SE TABBYORK


TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO ROOFS PINEWOOD DR AND HWY 134.INTERMITTENT TRACK 1.7 MILES LONG AND 40 YDS WIDE.

0400 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

1 N SEAFORDYORK


ROOF BLOWN OFF OF GARAGE...TREE DAMAGE. PATH LENGTHONE-TENTH OF A MILE.

0415 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

2 N NEW KENT

NEW KENT37.55N 76.98W

VA PUBLIC

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT CUMBERLAND HOSPITAL... DOWNINGTREES AND CAUSING SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TORNADO THENCAUSED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE TO TREES ALONG A NEARLY 6MILES PATH ENDING ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF TUNSTALL.

0435 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFo

TUNSTALLNEW KENT


TREES DOWN/DAMAGED ALONG RTES 606 607 619 AND... .INHANOVER COUNTY.. .RT 693.

ALS/WRS

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_..-events/hur/GASTON/pns.txt 09108/2004

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Rainfall Totals for Gaston

North, Va (Mathews) 1.80

Eastville, Va (Northampton) .93

Amelia 2.60

Alberta (Brunswick) 3.37

Camp Pickett (Nottoway) 4.96

Petersburg 4.82

Winterpock ( Chesterfield 5.69

Chester ( Chesterfield) 6.20

Emporia 2.12

Farmville (Prince Edward) .73

Norfolk Arpt 1.02

Wakefield (Office) 2.51

Williamsburg 1.36

Patrick Henry Aprt 1.67

Richmond Aprt 6.68

Wallops Is 1.56

Salisbury 1.55

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx..events/hur/GASTONJRainfall% 2OTotals%2 0for%2 0 ... 09/08/2004

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000NOUS41 KAKQ 311529PNSAKQ

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA1123 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS(INCHES) ACROSSTHE REGION FROM TROPICAL STORM GASTON:

IN THE CITY OF RICHMOND VA:

ST. MARY'S SCHOOL 5.80CLOVER HILL H.S. 4.30WWBT TV-12 4.80ST. CHRISTOPHER'S SCHOOL 6.40SCIENCE MUSEUM 6.56MATH & SCIENCE CTR. 12.30RICHMOND AIRPORT 6.68WEST END 12.60

IN CHESTERFIELD CO.:

MIDLOTHIAN 4.30,CHESTER 6.20WINTERPOCK 5.69

IN HANOVER CO.:

ASHLAND VA ASOS 10.61* MECHANICSVILLE 10.70

IN THE CITY OF HOPEWELL VA:

CARTER G. WOODSON SCHOOL 5.40

IN BRUNSWICK CO.:

LAWRENCEVILLE 3.70

IN NOTTOWAY CO.:

CAMP PICKETT 4.96

IN HENRICO CO.:

SANDSTON 8.10

NOTE: WSR88D RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAUNFALL (10 TO 12INCHES) OVER THE CITY OF RICHMOND AND WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY.

$$LYNCH

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx.events/hur/GASTON/unoffical.txt 09108/2004

IMPORTANT....INSURANCE INQUIRIES. Certified data CAN ONLY be obtained through the NationalClimatic Data Center

. Storm Surveys of Gaston

. Visit the Certified Consulting Meteorologist web site via the AMS OR

. NWS INDUSTRIAL METEOROLOGY web site.

Tropical storm Gaston brought intense rainfall and isolated tornados to south central Viriginia. Clickon the thumbnail graphics and look for updates to this page during the next 48 hours.

Richmond 24hr Rainfall Records

IE crickthumbnail ofRadarPrecipitationTotals

24 Hour RadarProducedStorm TotalRainfall

ir 1 Date ainfall

| 1 || Connie || Aug 12, 19551[ 8.79|2__J[ Gaston |Aug 30, 2004 1[ 6.68 |

3y Scp199 1 652

4I [ Danny ||Aug 18, 19851 5.58 |

1ILfurricaneAug 14-15, [___ #2 1 1940

~6 Isab ~el cpt .18,200:3 4.32

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx-events/hur/GASTON/gaston .htm 09/08/2004

RAIMEAJL1OTALSERO OFFICIA L NWSraphic of Official & Unoffical stornnBSERVATTONS

UNOFFICIAL RAINFALLTOTALLSAL&FROM OTHERWEATHER SOURCES

Data will be updated further!

Click the above images for further Gaston views.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx.events/hur/GASTON/gaston.htm 09/08/2004

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED FOR NEW KENT AND CHRONOLOGYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA920 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERNVIRGINIA ON MONDAY AUGUST 30 2004. THIS SYSTEM SPAWNED NUMEROUS WEAKTORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NWS PERSONNEL CONDUCTED STORMDAMAGE SURVEYS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CONFIRMED TWELVE TORNADOES.THIS NUMBER MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY SINCE WE HAVE A FEW MORE SITES TOSURVEY. ALL OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED AT FO ON THE FUJITA SCALE.F0 TORNADOES HAVE WINDS LESS THAN 73 MILES PER HOUR.

.. TIME...

.. DATE...... EVENT...... .MAG...... REMARKS..

...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON....COUNTY LOCATION... ST.. -SOURCE....

1210 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOF0

4 WNW CENTER STARDINWIDDIE


F0 TORNADO. TREES DOWN/DAMAGED..SHED LIFTED UP AND THROWNINTERMITTENTLY ALONG A PATH FROM 4 WNW CENTER STAR TO 1 WFORD.

0110 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

3 W BLACKSTONENOTTOWAY


MINIMAL DAMAGE. SHEET METAL ROOFING RIPPED OFF OF CHURCH.TOPS OF TREES SNAPPED OFF.

0120 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOF0

CLAREMONTSURRY


TREES DOWN... MINOR BUIILDING DAMAGE. TORNADO BEGAN NEARCLAREMONT AND ENDED IN THE UPPER BRANDONS PLANTATION AREAOF NORTHEAST PRINGE GEORGE COUNTY. PATH LENGTH APPROX 2MILES.

0135 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOF0

HOPEWELLCITY OF HOPEWELL


FO TORNADO IN APPOMATTOX MANOR AREATREES BLOWN DOWN/DAMAGED. DAMAGE TOTREE DAMAGE SEEN FROM THIS POINT TOCHESTER.

OF HOPEWELL. 25 TO 30SHED. INTERMITTENTABOUT 2 MILES NW OF

0142 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOF0



50 YARDS WIDE. INTERMITTENT PATH 3 MILES. FROM NEARWILLIAMSBURG ARPT TO JAMESTOWN HIGH SCHOOL.

0240 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO


37.24N 76.79WVA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

20 YARDS WIDE. 2/10 MILES LONG. NEAR DRUMMONDS FIELDSUBDIVISION AND THE JAMES RIVER.

http:l/www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wxevents/hur/GASTON/pns.txt 09/0812004

A"5- A,

0332 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

POQUOSON 37i13N 76.38WCITY OF POQUOSON VA NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN ON RIVER ROAD AND WYTHE CREEK ROAD.

0333 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

HAMPTONCITY OF HAMPTON

37.05N 76.29WVA COUNTY OFFICIAL

HALL ROAD. SHED AND TREE DAMAGE.

.0356 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

2 SE TABBYORK


TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO ROOFS PINEWOOD DR AND HWY 134.INTERMITTENT TRACK 1.7 MILES LONG AND 40 YDS WIDE.

0400 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFo

1 N SEAFORDYORK


ROOF BLOWN OFF OF GARAGE...TREE DAMAGE. PATH LENGTH

ONE-TENTH OF A MILE.

0415 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFO

2 N NEW KENTNEW KENT


TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT CUMBERLAND HOSPITAL.. .DOWNINGTREES AND CAUSING SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TORNADO THENCAUSED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE TO TREES ALONG A NEARLY 6MILES PATH ENDING ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF TUNSTALL.

0435 PM08/30/2004

TORNADOFo

TUNSTALLNEW KENT


TREES DOWN/DAMAGED ALONG RTES 606 607 619 AND.. . INHANOVER COUNTY.. .RT 693.

ALS/WRS

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wxevents/hur/GASTON/pns.txt 09108/2004

Rainfall Totals for Gaston

North, Va (Mathews) 1.80

Eastville, Va (Northampton) .93

Amelia 2.60

Alberta (Brunswick) 3.37

Camp Pickett ( Nottoway) 4.96

Petersburg 4.82

Winterpock (Chesterfield 5.69

Chester ( Chesterfield) 6.20

Emporia 2.12

Farmville (Prince Edward) .73

Norfolk Arpt 1.02

Wakefield (Office) 2.51

Williamsburg 1.36

Patrick Henry Aprt 1.67

Richmond Aprt 6.68

Wallops Is 1.56

Salisbury 1.55

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wxeventslhur/GASTONJRainfall%2OTotals%20foro20... 09/08/2004

v us - * A- s

000

NOUS41 KAKQ 311529PNSAKQ

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA1123 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS(INCHES) ACROSSTHE REGION FROM TROPICAL STORM GASTON:

IN THE CITY OF RICHMOND VA:

ST. MARY'S SCHOOL 5.80CLOVER HILL H.S. 4.30WWBT TV-12 4.80ST. CHRISTOPHER'S SCHOOL 6.40SCIENCE MUSEUM 6.56MATH & SCIENCE CTR. 12.30RICHMOND AIRPORT 6.68WEST END 12.60

IN CHESTERFIELD CO.:

MIDLOTHIAN 4.30CHESTER 6.20WINTERPOCK 5.69

IN HANOVER CO.:

ASHLAND VA ASOS 10.61MECHANICSVILLE 10.70

IN THE CITY OF HOPEWELL VA:

CARTER G. WOODSON SCHOOL 5.40

IN BRUNSWICK CO.:

LAWRENCEVILLE 3.70

IN NOTTOWAY CO.:

CAMP PICKETT 4.96

IN HENRICO CO.:

SANDSTON 8.10

NOTE: WSR88D RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAUNFALL (10 TO 12

INCHES) OVER THE CITY OF RICHMOND AND WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY.

$$LYNCH

http:llwww.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/hur/GASTON/unoffical.txt 0910812004

J-VIIIL A--%.AL&110 * -E - . -s -

Wi NCDC / Climate Resources / Climate Data / Events / Stonn Events /Results / Search / Help

Event Record Details

Event: Tropical StormBegin Date: 18 Sep 2003, 09:00:00 AM EST

Begin Location: Not KnownEnd Date: 19 Sep 2003,04:00:00 AM EST

End Location: Not KnownMagnitude: 0

Fatalities: 3Injuries: 0Property $ 45.1MDamage:

Crop Damage: $ 7.1M

State: VirginiaMap of Counties

Forecast Amelia, Brunswick,Zones Caroline,

affected: Chesterfield /Colonial Height,Cumberland,Dinwiddie /Petersburg,Fluvanna,Goochland, Hanover,Henrico / Richmond,King And Queen,King William,Louisa, Lunenburg,Mecklenburg,Nottoway, Powhatan,Prince Edward

Description:Tropical Storm Isabel produced tropical storm force sustained winds and mind gusts over thepiedmont of central and south central Virginia, as it crossed the Wakefield WFO countywarning area. Isabel made landfall near Ocracoke Inlet in North Carolina, tracked northwestinto central Virginia just west of Richmond, then continued northward into westernPennsylvania. The highest sustained wind speed recorded was 38 mph at RichmondInternational Airport. The highest gusts recorded were 73 mph at Richmond InternationalAirport, 63 mph at WWBT-TV, and 53 mph at Chase City in Mecklenburg county.Approximately several thousand persons were evacuated and housed in numerous sheltersacross the piedmont of central and south central Virginia. The unusually large wind fielduprooted many thousands of trees, downed many power lines, damaged hundreds of houses,and snapped thousands of telephone poles and cross arms. Hundreds of roads, includingmajor highways, were blocked by fallen trees. Over 2 million customers of Dominion VirginiaPower were without electricity. Local electrical cooperatives also reported thousands ofcustomers were without power. The lowest sea level pressure recorded was 987 mb atPortsmouth Virginia. Isabel will be remembered for the greatest wind and storm surge in theregion since Hazel in 1954, and the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane. Also, Isabel will beremembered for the most extensive power outages ever in Virginia, and permanent change tothe landscape from all the fallen trees and storm surge. Rainfall amounts ranged from 4 to 7inches across the piedmont of central and south central Virginia. Inland flooding due to heavyrainfall occurred over parts of the piedmont of central and south central Virginia. High waterwas reported around Swift Creek in Colonial Heights around Pinehurst Drive. Some areas inChesterfield county, such as Beach road also had high water. Eight deaths can be directlyattributed to Isabel in the Wakefield area of responsibility, with 7 in Virginia. There weremore than 15 deaths indirectly attributed to the storm. M270U, M541W, F45PH

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Hurricane Isabel6 - 19 September 2003

Jack Beven and Hugh CobbNational Hurricane Center

19 December 2003Revised: 16 January 2004

Hurricane Isabel was a long-lived Cape Verdehurricane that reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall near DrumInlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as aCategory 2 hurricane. Isabel is considered to be one ofthe most significant tropical cyclones to affectportions of northeastern North Carolina and east-central Virginia since Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and theChesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933.

a. Synoptic History

Isabel formed from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast ofAfrica on 1 September. Over the next several days, the wave moved slowlywestward and gradually became better organized. By 0000 UTC 5September, there was sufficient organized convection for satellite-basedDvorak intensity estimates to begin. Development continued, and it isestimated that a tropical depression formed at 0000 UTC 6 September, withthe depression becoming Tropical Storm Isabel six hours later. The "besttrack" chart of Isabel is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressurehistories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best trackpositions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

Isabel turned west-northwestward on 7 September and intensified into ahurricane. Strengthening continued for the next two days while Isabel movedbetween west-northwest and northwest. Isabel turned westward on 10September and maintained this motion until 13 September on the south sideof the Azores-Bermuda High. Isabel strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane

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on 11 September with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt at1800 UTC that day. After this peak, the maximum winds remained in the130-140 kt range until 15 September. During this time, Isabel displayed apersistent 35-45 n mi diameter eye.

Isabel approached a weakness in the western portion of the Azores-Bermuda High, which allowed the hurricane to turn west-northwestward on13 September, northwestward on 15, September, and north-northwestwardon 16 September. The latter motion would continue for the rest of Isabel'slife as a tropical cyclone.

Increased vertical wind shear on 15 September caused Isabel to graduallyweaken. The system weakened below major hurricane status (96 kt orCategory 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) on 16 September. Itmaintained Category 2 status with 85-90 kt maximum winds for the next twodays while the overall size of the hurricane increased. Isabel made landfallnear Drum Inlet, North Carolina near 1700 UTC 18 September as aCategory 2 hurricane, then weakened as it moved across eastern NorthCarolina. It weakened to a tropical storm over southern Virginia, then losttropical characteristics as it moved across western Pennsylvania on 19September. Extratropical Isabel moved northward into Canada and wasabsorbed into a larger baroclinic system moving eastward across southcentral Canada early the next day.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Isabel (Figure 2 and Figure 3) include satellite-basedDvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis andForecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S.Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). Also included are flight-level anddropwindsonde observations from flights by the 53d WeatherReconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command, theNOAA Aircraft Operations Center, and a Canadian research aircraft.Observations from ships (Table 2), land stations, and data buoys (Table 3)are included where appropriate. Microwave satellite imagery from theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quikscat, and the DefenseMeteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful intracking Isabel.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters made 39 center fixes duringIsabel. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters made two formal center fixes and flewseven research missions into the storm. The highest winds measured by theaircraft were 158 kt (Air Force at 700 mb) and 157 kt (NOAA at 8400 ft)between 1700-1730 UTC 13 September. A 156-kt flight-level wind (700 mb)was also observed at 1719 UTC 12 September. Stronger winds wereobserved on eyewall dropsondes, with a maximum of 203 kt reported at 806mb (4500 ft) at 1753 UTC 13 September. This is the strongest wind everobserved in an Atlantic hurricane, although it likely does not represent a 1-min average.

Comparison of the aircraft and satellite data makes the peak intensity ofIsabel somewhat speculative. Aircraft data on 12 September indicate thatIsabel had winds near 140 kt. However, the maximum intensity based on

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satellite imagery was reached on 11 September before the firstreconnaissance mission, and the satellite signature was weaker at the timeof the first mission. The maximum intensity estimate of 145 kt on 11September is based on the aircraft data of 12 September and the strongersatellite signature on the previous day. The minimum central pressure of 915mb on 11 September has a similar basis.

Isabel's intensity is also'somewhat uncertain during 16-18 September.During this time, a large outer eyewall formed, which disrupted the innercore wind structure. Dropsonde data indicated that the usual 90% reductionfor 700 mb winds to the surface in the eyewall was not valid, with the actualreductions being closer to 70-75%. Both Air Force and NOAA aircraftmeasured 11 8-kt flight-level winds in the northeast eyewall just as Isabelwas making landfall, which using the 90% reduction would support 105 ktsustained surface winds. However, using a 75% reduction gives a sustainedsurface wind of near 90 kt, which is in better agreement with maximumsurface winds estimated by a dropsonde (83 kt) and the Stepped FrequencyMicrowave Radiometer on the NOAA aircraft (90 kt) near the same time.Based on this, the best estimate of the landfall intensity is 90 kt.

Isabel brought hurricane conditions to portions of eastern North Carolina andsoutheastern Virginia. The highest observed wind on land (Table 3) wassustained at 69 kt with a gust to 85 kt at an instrumented tower near CapeHatteras, North Carolina at 1622 UTC 18 September. Another tower inElizabeth City, North Carolina reported 64-kt sustained winds with a gust to84 kt at 1853 UTC that day. The National Ocean Service (NOS) station atCape Hatteras reported 68-kt sustained winds with a gust to 83 kt beforecontact was lost. The Coastal Marine Automated Stations (C-MAN) atChesapeake Light, Virginia and Duck, North Carolina reported similar winds.Elsewhere in Virginia, Gloucester Point reported 60-kt sustained winds witha gust to 79 kt at 2200 UTC 18 September, while the Norfolk Naval AirStation reported 50-kt sustained winds with a gust to 72 kt at 2100 UTC thatday. Unofficial reports from the affected area include a gist of 102 kt at KittyHawk, North Carolina, a gust of 93 kt from Gwynns Island, Virginia, a gust of91 kt at Ocracoke, North Carolina, and a gust of 88 kt at New Bern, NorthCarolina. The wind record from the most seriously affected areas isincomplete, as several observing stations were either destroyed or lostpower as Isabel passed.

Isabel brought tropical-storm conditions to a large area from eastern NorthCarolina northward to the eastern Great Lakes and western New England.The C-MAN station at Thomas Point, Maryland reported 42 kt sustainedwinds with a gust to 58 kt at 0850 UTC 19 September. Reagan NationalAirport in Washington, DC reported 39-kt sustained winds with a gust to 50kt at 0139 UTC that day. Sustained tropical storm-force winds were reportedat Kennedy and LaGuardia Airports in New York City, while a gust of 52 ktwas reported in Middletown, Pennsylvania. Extratropical Isabel brought gale-force winds to portions of the eastern Great Lakes and southeasternCanada.

Shipping for the most part avoided Isabel. The most significant ship reportwas from the ZIPR7 (name unknown), which reported 52-kt winds at 1200UTC 17 September (Table 2). Additionally, NOAA buoy 41002 reported a10-min average wind of 52 kt with a gust to 70 kt at 0540 UTC 18

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September. Two NOAA data buoys broke loose as the storm passed andhad to be replaced.

The lowest pressure observed by reconnaissance aircraft was 920 mb at1712 and 1901 UTC 12 September. The lowest pressures observed on landwere unofficial reports of 957 mb at Arrowhead Beach, North Carolina, and958 mb from a storm chaser in Hobucken, North Carolina. The lowestpressures from official observation sites were 962.8 mb from aninstrumented tower in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina at 1645 UTC 18September, and 963.5 mb at Washington, North Carolina at 1944 UTC thatday.

Isabel produced storm surges of 6-8 ft above normal tide levels near thepoint of landfall along the Atlantic coast of North Carolina. Farther north,storm surge values ranged from 4-6 ft along the Virginia coast, 2-4 ft alongthe Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey shorelines, and 1-2 ft along thecoast of Long Island and in the Long Island sound.

In the North Carolina estuaries, storm surge values were generally 4-6 ftabove normal tide levels over the eastern portions of the Pamlico Sound andmost of the Albemarle Sound. Values of 6-10 ft above normal tide levelswere observed in the western end of the Pamlico Sound with a maximumvalue of 10.5 ft reported on the Neuse River in Craven County (Table 3).

Storm surges of 3-5 ft above normal tide levels were observed over thecentral portions of the Chesapeake Bay and 5-6 ft over the southern portionof the Bay in the vicinity of Hampton Roads, Virginia. Surge values of 6-8 ftabove normal levels were observed in the upper reaches of the ChesapeakeBay near Annapolis and Baltimore, Maryland and in most of the main stemrivers draining into the Chesapeake Bay. Even higher surges occurred at theheads of the rivers, with values of 8.5 ft above normal levels at theRichmond City locks along the James River in Virginia and nearly 8 ft alongthe Potomac River in Washington, D.C. Water levels exceeded previousrecord levels established in the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933 inWashington, D.C., Baltimore and Annapolis.

Storm surges in Delaware Bay were generally 3-4 ft at the mouth of the bayand 5-6.5 ft at the head of the bay and along the Delaware River in thevicinity of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Rainfall from Hurricane Isabel averaged 4-7 in over large portions of easternNorth Carolina, east-central Virginia and Maryland. Rainfall totals of 8-12 inwith locally higher amounts occurred in the Shenandoah valley in northernVirginia. Upper Sherando, Virginia, reported a storm total of 20.20 in (Table4). Lesser amounts in the 2-4 in range occurred elsewhere over easternVirginia and the Delmarva Peninsula.

One tornado occurred in association with Hurricane Isabel. It touched downin the Ocean View section of Norfolk, Virginia at approximately 2200 UTC 18September and was verified only by visual confirmation from lawenforcement officials. No Fujita scale rating has been assigned to thetornado since its damage could not be distinguished from the extensivehurricane-related wind damage in the area.

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c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

Isabel is directly responsible for 16 deaths: 10 in Virginia, and 1 each inNorth Carolina, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, andFlorida. The deaths in Florida and Rhode Island were drownings in high surfgenerated by Isabel. Isabel was indirectly responsible for 34 deaths: 22 inVirginia, 6 in Maryland, 2 in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and I each inNew Jersey and the District of Columbia.

Isabel caused widespread wind and storm surge damage in coastal easternNorth Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Storm surge damage alsooccurred along Chesapeake Bay and the associated river estuaries, whilewind damage occurred over portions of the remaining area from southernVirginia northward to New York. The current estimate for insured propertydamage is $1.685 billion - $925 million in Virginia, $410 million in Maryland,$170 million in North Carolina, $80 million in Pennsylvania, $45 million inNew York, $25 million in New Jersey, $20 million in Delaware, and $10million in West Virginia. The total damage for Isabel is estimated to be abouttwice that of the insured damage, or $3.37 billion.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

The track of Isabel was in general well forecast. Average official track errors(with the number of cases in parentheses) for Hurricane Isabel were 22 (51),39 (49), 52 (47), 60 (45), 80 (41), 104 (37), and 146 (33) n mi for the 12, 24,36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively'. These errors are muchlower than the average official track errors for the 1 0-yr period 1993-20022(45, 81, 116, 150, 225, 282, and 374 n mi, respectively) (Table 5) - 50-65 %smaller than the average forecast errors at all times. The track forecasts alsoshowed tremendous skill when compared to the errors of the Climatology-Persistence (CLP5) model (32, 68, 109, 148, 231, 350, and 537 n mi for the12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively) - including analmost 75% improvement at 120 h. Overall, the official track forecasts hadsmaller errors than the dynamical models. However, three ensemblemethods that combine the forecasts of the dynamical models (GUNS,GUNA, and FSSE) had smaller errors than the official forecasts.

There appear to be three primary reasons for the excellent track forecasts.First, Isabel was a large and strong hurricane, and this type of tropicalcyclone is generally easier to forecast.

Second, Isabel moved slowly through the central and eastern Atlantic in arelatively predictable steering pattern. While an initial northwestward motionwas not as well forecast as other parts of the track, the forecasts didcorrectly anticipate that Isabel would turn westward and maintain that coursefor several days.

Third, when Isabel reached the western Atlantic, synoptic surveillancemissions began using both the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet and Air ForceReserve aircraft. These mission helped resolve a complex steering flowpattern around Isabel. Preliminary estimates from the Hurricane ResearchDivision indicate that the synoptic surveillance data improved the trackforecasts of the NWS Global Forecast System model (AVNO in Table 5) by


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as much as 40% at 120 h. Qualitative examination of forecasts from theNOGAPS (NGPS) and UKMET models (UKM) also suggest forecast trackimprovement due to the data.

The landfall forecasts were exceptionally accurate. The track forecast errorsverifying at 1800 UTC 18 September (1 h after landfall) had errors of 6,12,6, 16, 31, 86, and 118 n mi forthe 12,24,36,48,72, 96, and 120 hforecasts, respectively.

The intensity forecasts were less accurate than the track forecasts. Averageofficial intensity errors were 7,11,14,17, 22, 25, and 27 kt for the 12, 24,36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively, which are larger than theaverage official intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1993-2002 (6,10, 13,15, 19, 21, and 22 kt, respectively). However, the intensity forecasts showedskill when compared to intensity climatology and persistence, which haderrors of 8,13,18, 23, 29, 32, and 35 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and120 h forecasts, respectively. The greatest contributors to the intensityforecast errors included 1) underforecasting how quickly Isabel wouldintensify over the eastern Atlantic, and 2) overforecasting how strong Isabelwould remain as it reached a less favorable environment in the westernAtlantic.

Table 6 lists the watches and warnings associated with Hurricane Isabel.The accurate track forecasts and the large size of Isabel led to longer thannormal watch and warning lead times. A hurricane watch was issued for thelandfall area 50 h before the center made landfall. A hurricane warning wasissued 38 h before landfall.

Acknowledgements

Much of the data from the affected areas were provided by the NWSWeather Forecast Offices at Wilmington, Morehead City, and Raleigh, NorthCarolina, Wakefield, Sterling, and Blacksburg, Virginia, Mount Holly, NewJersey, Upton, New York, and Pittsburgh and State College, Pennsylvania.NOAA buoy and C-MAN data were provided by the National Data BuoyCenter. NOS data were provided by the NOAA National Ocean Service.Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) data were provided by theNational Interagency Fire Center. USGS data were provided by theNWISWeb web site. Other data were provided by the Weather Undergroundweb site.

'All forecast verifications in this report include the depression stage of thecyclone. National Hurricane Center verifications presented in these reportsprior to 2003 did not include the depression stage.

2Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the two-yearperiod 2001-2002.

Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19 September 2003.

I Date/Time ionPressure Wind Speed Stage(UTC) et. It Lon. I(mb) | (it)


-------Al.A'-.I AA s . As W L JI%,C* S. J . . A - I S - .,

(°N) I (0W)06/ 0000 13.8 31.4 1009 30 tropical depression06 /0600 13.9 32.7 1005 35 tropical storm06 /1200 13.6 33.9 1003 40

06/1800 13.4 34.9 1000 45

07 /0000 13.5 35.8 994 55 ,

07/0600 13.9 36.5 991 60

07 /1200 14.4 37.3 987 65 hurricane

07/1800 15.2 38.5 984 7008/ 0000 15.8 39.7 976 80

08/0600 16.5 40.9 966 95 .08 /1200 17.1 42.0 952 110

08 /1800 17.6 43.1 952 110

09 /0000 18.2 44.1 948 11509 /0600 18.9 45.2 948 115 _

09 /1200 19.4 46.3 948 11509/1800 20.0 47.3 948 .11510/0000 20.5 48.3 952 11010/0600 20.9 49.4 952 110

10/1200 21.1 50.4 948 115

10/1800 21.1 51.4 942 120

11 /0000 21.2 52.3 935 125

11 /0600 21.3 53.2 935 125

11 /1200 21.4 54.0 925 13511 /1800 21.5 54.8 915 '14512/0000 21.6 55.7 920 140 .

12/ 0600 21.7 56.6 920 14012/1200 21.6 57.4 920 14012/1800 21.7 58.2 920 140

13 /0000 21.8 59.1 925 13513 /0600 21.9 60.1 935 13013/1200 22.1 61.0 935 13513 /1800 22.5 62.1 932 140 .14/ 0000 22.9 63.3 935 13514 /0600 23.2 64.6 939 135

14/ 1200 23.5 65.8 935 135

14 /1800 23.9 67.0 933 140

15 /0000 24.3 67.9 937 130

15/0600 24.5 68.8 940 125

15/1200 24.8 69.4 946 120 a

15 /1800 25.3 69.8 949 11516 /0000 25.7 702 952 105 S

16/0600 26.3 70.5 955 100

16 /1200 26.8 70.9 959 95 5

16/1800 27.4 71.2 959 95 5

17 /0000 28.1 71.5 957 95


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17 /0600 | 28.91 71.9 957 95 0

17/1200 29.7 72.5 957 9017/1800 30.6 73.0 955 90 _

18/0000 31.5 73.5 953 90

18 /0600 32.5 74.3 956 90

18/1200 33.7 75.2 956 90

18/1800 35.1 76.4 958 85

19/0000 36.7 77.7 969 65

19 /0600 38.6 78.9 988 50 tropical storm

19 /1200 40.9 80.3 997 35 extratropical

19 /1800 43.9 80.9 1000 30

20/ 0000 48.0 81.0 1000 25

20 /0600 _ _ absorbed by extratropical low

11/1800 21.5 54.8 915 145 minimum pressure

18 / 1700 34.9 76.2 957 90 landfall at Drum Inlet, North Carolina

Table 2: Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for HurricaneIsabel, 6-19 September 2003.

Ship Name or Call Date/Time Lat. Lon. Wind dir/speed PressureSign (UTC) (°N) (°W) (deg/kt) (mb)

Duncan Island 17/0300 27.4 68.7 160/42 1007.5

Duncan Island 17/0900 29.1 67.9 160145 1010.0

ZIPR7 17/0900 32.0 68.3 110/45 1010.7

ZIPR7 17/1200 30.2 67.4 150/52 1011.6

Sealand Hawaii 17/1800 31.0 68:5 130140 1010.2

Galveston Bay 17/1800 33.4 76.7 020/37 1010.8

Oriental Bay 19/0000 35.5 73.1 140/37 1010.6

P&O Ned Lloyd 19/ 0300 34.7 74.8 190/37 1010.5Pegasus_

P&ONed Uoyd 19/ 0600 38.9 72.9 160/45 1015.3PiraeusIII

James R. Barker 19/1200 42.2 81.1 060/42 1001.0

Table 3: Selected surface observations for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19September 2003.

Minimum Maximum SurfaceSea-level Wind SpeedPressure ____(kt)

LocatonPesur Date/ Sust. Peak Sarm Storm rmLoaton Tie/ Press. linea Wlndb Gust Surgec Tided (storm

(UTC) (mb) (UTC) (kts) (kts) O n)

South Carolina

Springmaid Pier 1 118/1545 [ 24 1 39 1North Carolina

Alligator River | 18/1900 | 50 T75RAWS . . - .I.

Atlantic Beach I I I I I I I I

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(Clemson/UFTower) 18/1645 962.8 18/1558 55 67

Back Island RAWS 18/1813 53 1.65

Beaufort RAWS 18/1815 64 5.64

Beaufort (NOS) 5.8 2.5

Burlington (KBUY) 48

Cape Hatteras(Clemson/UF 18/1644 968.2 18/1622 69 85

Tower)

Cape Hatteras Pier 18/1518 974.0 18/1518 68 83 7.7 5.6NOSE __ _

Caswe0l 18/2017 46 1.95

Cherry Point 18/1840 968.2 18/1818 62 5.24(KNKT) ___

Clinton (KCTZ) = 40

Craven Co. (Neuse 10.5river) ___ ___

Duke Forest RAWS 18/1907 53 1.70

Duck Corps ofEngineersPier 18/1918 984.0 18/2100 55 72 7.8 4.7 4.72

NOSe

Elizabeth City 18/1543 510 64e 2.72(KECG) ___

Elizabeth City(Clemson/UF 18/1940 981.9 18/1852 64 84

Tower) .

Elizabethtown 18/2320 22 43 2.26

Erwin-Dunn (KHRJ) 38

Fayetteville (KFAY) 35 50

Fort Bragg (KFBG) 52

Fort Bragg RAWS 18/2007 48 1.33

Franklinton (KLHZ) 39

Goldsboro (KGSB) 35 51

Greensboro 40(KGSO) ___

Greens Cross 18/1708 50e 6.29RAWS___

Greenville (KPGV) 18/1855 34 44 5.75

Henderson (KHNZ) 39

Hoffman Forest 18/1509 50 2.35RAWS

Laurinburg (KMEB) 35

Lumberton (KLBT) 18/1921 32 45 3.39

Manteo (KMOI) 18/1743 982.4 18/1843 44 68

NatureConservancy 18/1658 54 1.91

RAWS

New Bern (KEWN) 18/1608 50e

New River (KNCA) 18/1756 981.7 18/1556 39 56 - 2.02

Newport (KMHX) 18/1730 968.9 18/1800 = 46 5.87


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Oregon InletMarina NOS 4.75.4

Pocosin Lake NWR 18/1823 64 5.94RAWSII

Raleigh (KRDU) 39

Rocky Mount 35 54(KRWI) . _ 35_5

Rocky Mount 18/2113 52e 4.20RAWSII

Roanoke Rapids" 18/2147 38 55(KRZZ)

Sanford (KTTA) 43

Smithfield (KJNX) 34

Sunny Point RAWS 18/2158 51 2.09

TuRbull Creek 18/2313 41 2.19RAWS ___

Washington 18/1944 963.5 18/1803 37 49(KOCW)

Wilmington (KILM) 18/1843 990.5 18/2143 39 51 1.98

Wilmington(Clemson/UF 18/1730 990.8 18/1315 43

Tower)

__ _ _ _ __ _ _ _V irginiaBack Bay NWR 18/1935 38 53 4.12

RAWS 18195_8_3__1

Blacksburg (WFO) 19/0120 34

Chesapeake Bay 18/2154 992.4 18/2048 52 64 7.5 4.8Bridge Tunnel NOS

Colonial Beach 54 3.7NOSe (6.5)h

Culpeper (KCJR) 19/0303 995.0

Danville (KDAN) 18/1922 45

(KuAD)rort 19/0359 997.6 19/0122 32 42 1.96

Fort Belvoir (KDAA) 2.32Fredericksburg 2.79

(KEZF)

Gloucester Point 8.3 6.4NOSe

Gloucester Point 18/2200 60 79(VIMS)

Great Dismal 11953Swamp RAWS 18/1945 39

Kingsmill NOSe 6.6 4.3

Kiptopeake NOS 18/2342 39 60 6.5

Langley AFB (KLFI) 18/2348 991.9 18/1808 46 66 2.67

Leesburg (KJYO) 19/0444 42

Lewisetta NOSe 19/0012 997.3 1910100 46 59 3.7 3.0

Manassas (KHEF) 19/0335 997.0

Melfa (KMFV) 18/2102 1000.0

Money Point NOS 18/2318 38 52 8.3 5.7


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Newport News"(KPHF) 18/2237 990.2 18/1756 38 57 3.16

Norfolk Airport" 18/2151 990.2 18/2049 41 64 2.50(KORF)__ _ __ _ _

Norfolk N.A.S. 18/2110 50 72 4.21(KNGU)_

Oceana N.A.S. 18/2056 990.9 18/2056 48 60(KNTU)

Portsmouth 18/2225 987.2

Quantico (KNYG) 19/0355 996.8 19/0322 47 67Roanoke (KRNK) 18/2143 38

Rappahannock 18/2354 995A 18/2318 60Light NOS I___I

Richmond (KRIC) 19/0013 33 63 4.32

Scotland NOS" 6.8 4.8

Sewells Point NOS 18/2130 991.4 18/1642 50 64 7.9 5.6Wakefield (KAKQ) =_=_=_5.76

Wallops Island 19/0012 1003.1 18/1747 43 54 0.80

Wachapreague 18/2300 1001.8 5.5 2.5NOSe

Wakefield WFO 5.66

WashingtonReagan Airport 19/0359 999.3 19/0139 39 50 2.31

(KDCA)

Windmill Point NOS 3.8

District of Columbia

National Academy 19/ 62of Science (DCNet) NN/A

Washington NOS I_ J 7.9

West VirginiaMartinsburg 119/0654 1997.3 119/0318 26 40

Petersburg (W99) 119/0537 1995.01Maryland

Andrews AFB 18/2051 33 60(KADW) ___

Annapolis NOS r___7_7.2 6.3

Baltimore NOS 8.2 7.3

Baltimore (KBWI) 19/0358 1001.4 19/0211 38 1 48 3.21

Black NWR RAWS 18/2227 40 1.42

Cambridge NOSe 19/0154 1003.0 18/2054 37 49 6.2 5.2 2.20

Chesapeake City 5.7 4.9NOS 57 ..

Frederick 19/0543 1 43

Hagerstown 19/0548 998.6 18/2328 34 45(KHGR)

Maryland Science 19/0301 1002.4Center(KDMH) 19031102

Ocean City (KOXB) 18/2257 1006.1 18/2252 | 36 46 6.5 1.97

Patuxent River 19/0355 999.0 19/0355 48 60(KNHK) IIII

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtrn0l? 09/10/2004

L �kA�I & A S.... A L�JjJI%..UI S....�y S..1.JR*S.. AS.S.ji�.JA � A A&, �..P1 �-..J

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Salisbury (KSBY) 19/0331 11005.1 118/2009 32 44 2.08

Silver Springs 19/ N/A 72(DCNet) I I1I| |2

Solomons Island 19/0018 1000.7 19/0106 45 56NOS6

___

Tolchester Beach 19/0354 1003.2 19/0124 38 7.9 6.9NOS_____ _

Delaware

Brandywine Shoal 19/0424 1007.3 19/0742 54NOSI

Delaware City NOS 19/0630 1005.6 19/0606 34 47 8.62 1 5.42Dover AFB (KDOV) 19/0419 53

Georgetown 19/0613 52 1.74(KGED) ___

Lewes NOS 19/0336 1006.6 18/2024 46 54 6.51 3.07

Prime Hook NWR 18/2127 44 1.06RAWS

Reedy Point NOS 8.66 5.00Wilmington (KILG) 19/0720 = 46 1.46

New Jersey

Atlantic City 19/0034 42(KACY)II

Atlantic City USGS 19/0300 1011.9 19/0100 46

BaUegat LIght 1910500 1014.6 19/1930 39USGSI

Burlington NOS 19/0706 1010.4 10.6 6.5Cape May NOS 19/0500 1008.1 18/2124 47 6.5 3.1

Cape May USGS 19/0100 1005.2 18/2100 34 53

Forsythe NWR 19/0827 34 0.31RAWS I___

Keansburg USGS 19/0600 1014.6 19/0100 45

.MilIville (KMIV) 19/0046 48Newark (KEWR) 19/0757 1013.9 19/0619 28 38 0.66

Point Pleasant 19/0500 1014.6 19/0100 40USGS _______

Sandy Hook NOS 19/0736 1014.2 19/0142 39Ship John Shoal 19/0518 1007.1 19/0206 47 62 8.0 4.7

NOS__ _

Tacony-Palmyra 9.9 5.8Bridge NOS _

Trenton (KTNT) 19/0304 38Wildwood (KWWD) 19/0835 41 1.30

Wrightstown 19/0337 47

PennsylvaniaAllentown (KABE) 19/0907 41Altoona (KAOO) 19/0804 998.7 19/0429 37

Capital City 19/0513 1003.0 19/0530 50Clearfield (KFIG) 19/0926 1000.3 19/0604 35

Hazelton_(KFET) I I_ I I

Lancaster (KLNS) 19/0634 1004.4 19/0637 46


A ILA%.I A A %..A 1WJJ!AA1 ~~%.aJs A-.~JJWA . -b,- a - v- --

Middletown 19/0509 1003.0 119/0517 52

Mt Pocono (KMPO) = 40

Philadelphia 19/0747 43 1.14( K P H L_ ___ _

Philadelphia NOS 19/0530 1010.6 18/2312 37 9.5 5.4Reading (KRDG) 19/0735 43

Scranton Wilkes- 35Barre (KAVP) 35

Sherburne RAWS 19/1808 41Williamsport (KIPT) 19/0843 1003.0 19/0841 45

York (KTHV) 19/0603 1002.7 19/0601 38_______ _ _ _ _ New York

Binghamton 39(KBGM) TT3 T 1

Buffalo (KBUF) 19/2012 35

Farmingdale 19/0902 1016.3 19/0725 28 36 0.00(KFMG) ___

Monticello (KMSV) 38

NewYork Kennedy 1910815 1015.2 19/0802 35 43 0.16Airport (KJFK) ___

New YorkLaGuardia Airport 19/0827 1014.9 19/0736 35 44 026

(KLGA)

Saranac Lake 19/1827 38(KSLK) __ _ _

Shinnecock Inlet 18/2330 30 45Syracuse (KSYR) 35

Utica (KUCA) I 37Watertown (KART) _19/1605 35Wellsville (KELZ) 119/0958 35

Vermont

Burlington (KBTV) 1 19/1940 I 40 j I

Rutland (KRUT) 1 19/15351 I _35_

CanadaBurlington 39

Hamilton 36Long Point 37 42

Point Petre 43

Port Colbume _ 35 1 44

Toronto Island _ 43

Toronto Pearson 19/1350 39Airport (CYYZ) 19__1350___9

Buoy/CMAN

NOAABuoy41001 18/0900 997.7 18/0150 409 51

NOAA Buoy 41002 18/0800 978.8 18/0540 529 70

NOAA Buoy 44004 18/2331 35

NOAA Buoy 44009 19/0000 1006.6 19/2200 38 51

NOAA Buoy 44014 18/1900 995.5 18/1250 439 60

NOAA Buoy 44017 19/0900 1018.5 18/2300 29 36


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A IAA%,l A A %� A LJlJA%,LLI %-.Y L%%,jjjA t .& "r,% Lr VL J.,

NOAA Buoy 44025 |19/0800 11015.0 119/0100 | 30 38

NOAABuoy45005 19/1300 1002.6 19/2100 27 T 35

NOAABuoy45008 19/1700 1002.6 20/0030 28 34

NOAABuoy45012 19/1700 1004.2 19/1220 329 41

Canadian Buoy 34 4245135 __34 4 TT

Canadian Buoy 32 4045139 ___

Canadian Buoy 32 4045160 32 40

Ambrose Tower 19/0700 1014.1 19/2350 449 52(ALSN7) ___ __

(CHLV2) 18/2100 990.6 18/2140 659 83

Cape Lookout 18/1600 964.9 18/1530 609 79(CKLN7) ___

Dunkirk (DBLN6) 19/1500 1000.3 19/1900 31 39

Diamond Shoals 18/1 600 970.5LUght (DSLN7)

Duck (DUCN7) 18/1900 984.4 18/1930 66>g 82

Frying Pan Shoals 18/1700 993.4 18/1610 63g 77(FPSN7)_

Lake St Clair 19/1400 1004.1 19/2100 31 36(LSCM4) ____

South Bass Island 19/1400 1003.8 19/2050 329 36(S BOI1) __ _ __ _ _

Thomas Point Ught 19/0500 1001.1 19/0850 42 58* (TPLM2) _______00

. Unofficlal Observations:

South CarolinaUttle River 18/1723 36

Loris EMS 18/1742 37 1.34

Myrtle Beach 18/1638 34Pavilion 18_1638_3

Pawleys Island 18/1624 35

North CarolinaArrowhead Beach 18/2030 957.0

Atlantic Beach 18/1644 967.5 18/1531 48 59(Sudduth)Battleship 43

Cape Lookoute 18/1415 71 =

Carolina Beach 18/1405 45

Underground) 18/2209 988.0 18/2149 43 1.22

Cedar Island 18/1440 75

Clayton (Weather 19/0102 990.4 18/1752 40Underground)

Edenton 7.0Elizabeth City 5.0

Harkers Island 18/1430 85Bridge

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtn-1? 010209/10/2004

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Hobucken(Leonard) 18/1750 1 958.0

Holly Shelter 18/2020 53 |_ll_

Isabelle HomesBridge (Cape Fear 18/1330 50

River)

Kitty Hawk 18/1925 984.5 18/ N/A 102Kure Beach Pier 18/1605 41

Kyre Beach La Que 18/1 300 48Center

Ullington (Weather 18/1808 37Underground)

New Bern (Weather 18/1912 970.1 18/1327 80 88Underground) ____ ____

Ocean Isle 18/1600 50Ocracoke 18/1545 91Plymouth _18/1805 = 83

Southport NC State 18/2334 56Pilot _ _ _ __ _ _ _

Southport 46Elementary School ____

SouthportBrunswick County 18/1600 44 1.95

Airport _ __.__

Sunny PointMilitary Ocean 18/2020 45

Terminal

Underground) 18/1846 991.8 18/1206 44 75U n e g o n ) _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _

Topsail Beach 18/1430 50Trenton 18/1912 70

Whiteville Chamber 43 4.51of Commerce

Wilmington (NC 18/1400 57State Port)Wilmington

(Weather 18/1730 994.1 18/1800 36Underground)

Wilmington (WECT 46 2.24TV)___ _

Wilson (Weather 18/2110 976.5 18/1955 47Underground) _________

Wrightsville Beach 18/1500 39Police

Wrightsville Beach 18/1230 52

Wrightsville Beach 18/2128 49Oceanic Pier

VirginiaBoone 1___|_18/2241 - 40

Chase City 18/2010 46

Chesapeake Bay 18/2125 62 76

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtm1? 09/10/2004

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Chincoteague 18/2315 41Chincoteague CGS 62

Chincoteague(Weather 18/2311 1004.3 18/2231 36 40

Underground) _

Dublin 11910220 49Dunnsville 6.0Five Forks = 70

Gwynns Island 19/0042 93Hampton 18/2130 58 80Hillsville 19/0240 37Hopewell 8.0

Hot Springs 19/0020 38Jefferson 1910220 35

Norfolk Fred Heutte 18/1944 61 4.88Center

Oak Hall 50Onley 54

Parksley = 57

Portsmouth (WRS) 18/1944 48Reedville 87

Richmond (WWBT- 55TV)

Richmond County 421 571Smith Island 72

Smithfield 10.751 8.0JTappahannock 5.5

West Point 9.01

White Stone 18/ N/A 55(NNWS)8

Williamsburg(Weather 18/2247 993.5 18/1917 50

Underground)Yorktown (Weather 18/1820 41

Underground)e I II_ I

Maryland

Frederick (Weather 19/0705 1001.2 18/ N/A 42Underground)Hagerstown

(Weather 19/0500 55 2.89Underground)

Hurlock 54Millersville(Weather 19/ N/A 1001.3 18/ N/A 41 2.14

Underground)Montgomery

Village (Weather 19/0344 1000.3 19/0300 43 2.30Underground)

Ocean Pines 52

UndergrouPd) 19/0430 1000.9 19/0350 37 0.68

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtm1? 0102009110/2004

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Pocomoke I I I I 1 43 1 1New Jersey

Berlin(Weather 19/0525 1010.0 19/0540 42Underground) ____

Buena (Weather 19/0030 42Underground) -- - - - -

Oceanport(Weather 19/0649 1013.8 18/2209 39

Underground)

Toms River(Weather 19/0700 1015.5 18/2200 37

Underground)

Williamstown(Weather . 19/0740 53

Underground)

PennsylvaniaAston (Weather 19/0615 1010.0 19/0030 34

Elk Lake 40Exeter 37

Gettysburg 119/0701 50

Jermyn - 40

Kinzer (WeatherUnderground)" 19/0600 39

Lancaster (Weather 19/0800 40Underground) _19_0800_4

Lancaster (WGAL) 19/0608 63Millersville 19/0800 44(University)

Moscow 41New Holland 19/0742 47

Perkasie (Weather 19/0845 35Underground)

Plymouth 34Rock Spring 19/0723 40Saylorsburg

(Weather 19/0744 34Underground)

Shiremanstown 19/0645 59New York

Homell ________ |39

Uverpool 38Lowville (Weather 19/1916 1008.4 19/1847 37

Underground)Madison 38Marathan 36Rochester(Weather 19/1602 1003.3 19/1446 34

Underground)

Romulus = 35

VermontCambridge | 119/1720 | | 45


I411%.4 .LI '... I LWJJt~.44L %-)%,I VI I% %..jJ.J1l A "r,. IV % *& R J

Uncoln (WeatherUnderground) 19/1231 44

Mt Mansfield | 19/1805 72|

Pleasant Valley 119/1728 = 48

Salisbury 119/1620 _ 43

aDate/time Is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.b Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOSreports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min; NOS stations averaging periods are 6min; RAWS stations report 10 min average sustained winds.CStorm surge Is water height above normal astronomical tide level.d Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).eIncomplete record - more extreme values may have occurred'Station destroyed - more extreme values may have occurred010-min averagehSubsequent.Survey Storm Surge value115-min averageJEstimated

Table 4: Selected storm rainfalls (in) from Hurricane Isabel, 6-19September 2003.

Station Storm-total Rainfall (in)Virginia

Amelia (Amelia) 5.50Apple Orchard Mountain (Botetourt) 8.76

Ash RAWS 4.33Ashland (Hanover) 5.20Bent Gap (Nelson) 6.68

Big Meadows (Madison) 8.60Big Meadows (Page) 11.10

Blackstone (Nottoway) 7.00Bowling Green (Caroline) 4.22

Bumpass (Louisa) 5.45Carson (Dinwiddie) 6.20

Cartersville (Goochland) 4.91Charles City (Charles City) 4.90

Chester (Chesterfield) 5.50Chesterfield (Chesterfield) 5.80

Cralgsville (Augusta) 3.44Crewe (Nottoway) 5.10

Dale Enterprise (Rockingham) 4.17Devils Knob (Nelson) 10.70Emporia (Greenville) 6.41

Farmville (Prince Edward) 5.00Glen Allen (Henrico) 5.50

Green Bay (Prince Edward) 4.76Grottoes (Rockingham) 6.25

Hogback Mountain (Warren) 7.55Homeville (Sussex) 7.10

Hood (Madison) 4.00

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtmil? 09110/2004

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Hopewell 6.00

Ida (Page) 8.59

Irish Gap (Rockbridge) 6.96James River NWR RAWS 5.42

Jordan's Point (Prince George) 5.67

Lewis Mountain (Page) 6.82

Unden (Warren) 4.23

Long Run (Rockingham) 7.08

Lynnwood (Rockingham) 5.48

Madison/Green Line (Madison) 4.36Madison (Madison) 4.10

Mathews Arm (Page) 8.40

McDowell (Highland) 4.76Mechanicsville (Hanover) 4.50

Mills Creek Dam (Augusta) 9.16

Montebello 1 SSE (Nelson) 6.10

Monterey (Highland) 4.24

Montpelier 4.00

Mustoe (Highland) 3.20

Nethers (Madison) 4.23

Newland (Richmond) 3.50

New Market (Shenandoah) 4.50

Newport News . 3.70

Orange (Orange) 3.42

Paineville (Amelia) 4.17

Petersberg 5.59

Portsmouth 4.04

Powhatan (Powhatan) 5.00Prince George (Prince George) 6.00

Richmond (WBBT TV) 6.88Richmond (WTVR-TV) 4.01

Robinson Hollow (Augusta) 7.24

Ruther Glen (Caroline) 4.22Sandston (Henrico) 5.08

Sherando (Augusta) 8.32

Short Pump (Henrico) 3.78

Skyland (Page) 9.54

Somerset (Orange) 4.73

Sperryville (Rappahannock) 3.62

Stuarts Draft (Augusta) 6.50

Suffolk 4.79

Swift Run (Rockingham) 6.90

The Plains (Fauquier) 3.45

Toano (James City) 10.60

Toms Branch (Augusta) 7.12

Upper Sherando (Augusta) 20.20

http:Hlwww.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtml? 09110/2004

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Urbanna (Middlesex) 7.00

Watkins Landing (Powhatan) 4.00

Waynesboro (Augusta) 6.11

West Point (King William) 3.86

Williamsburg 4.50

Woodstock (Shenandoah) 3.50

Table 5: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) forHurricane Isabel, 6-19 September 2003. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed

by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHCofficial forecast are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes thedepression stage, but does not include the extratropical stage, if any.

Forecast Period (hours)Technique 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

CLP5 32 (52) 68 (50) 109 (48) 148 (46) 231 (42) 350 (38) 537(34)

A9OE 29 (52) 60 (50) 93 (48) 144 (46) 235 (42) 373 (38) 503 (34)

A98E 29 (52) 59 (50) 92 (48) 142 (46) 238 (42) 384 (38) 492 (34)

A9UK 28 (24) 52 (23) 70 (22) 99 (21) 151 (19)LBAR 26 (51) .49 (49) 75 (47) 104 (45) 163 (41) 205(37) 227 (33)

BAMD 26 (52) 43 (50) 66 (48) 93 (46) 156 (42) 190 (38) 236 (34)

BAMM 29(52) 52 (50) 79 (48) 110 (46) 169 (42) 190 (38) 223 (34)

BAMS 41 (52) 72 (50) 101 (48) 130 (46) 201 (42) 254 (38) 300 (34)

COAl 20 (27) 35 (25) 50 (23) 65 (21) 100 (17)COAL* 31 (14) 38(13) 52 (12) 60 (11) 95 (9)

COEI 20(14) 42 (14) 65 (14) 75 (12)

COCE* 22 (8) 33 (8) 53 (7) 71 (6)AF11 31 (47) 51 (45) 78 (43) 103 (41) 157 (37)

AFW1* 56 (24) 75 (23) 83 (22) 105 (21) 144 (19)

GFNI 21 (44) 35 (42) 45 (40) 63 (38) 109 (34)

GFDN* 24 (23) 36 (22) 46 (21) 52 (20) 97 (18)GFDI 26 (51) 45 (49) 60(47) 69 (43) 97 (39) 117 (35) 149 (31)

GFDL* 22 (50) 39 (48) 54 (46) 67(44) 95 (40) 111 (36) 143 (32)UKMI 23 (49) 41 (47) 57 (45) 67 (43) 88 (39) 111 (35) 154 (31)UKM* 31 (25) 47 (24) 60 (23) 73(22) 94 (20) 119 (18) 145 (16)

NGPI 21 (52) 39 (50) 58 (48) 78 (46) 129 (42) 192 (37) 250(33)

NGPS* 25 (51) 36 (49) 50 (47) 63 (45) 105 (41) 159 (37) 215 (33)

AVNI 25 (49) 41-(47) 58 (45) 79 (43) 123 (39) 155 (35) 204 (31)

AVNO* 29 (50) 43 (48) 57 (46) 75 (44) 123 (40) 154 (36) 191 (32)

AEMI 15 (8) 39 (8) 73 (7) 112 (6) 202 (3)AEMN* 16 (8) 32 (7) 49 (6) 84 (5) 160 (3) 205 (1)

GUNS 18 (49) 32 (47) 45 (45) 52 (43) 72 (39) 86 (34) 93 (30)

GUNA 19 (49) 32(47) 43(45) 53 (43) 75 (39) 97(34) 114 (30)

FSSE 18 (24) 32 (23) 44 (22) 51 (21) 72 (19)

OFCI 24 (50) 42 (48) 54 (46) 64 (44) 85 (40) 108 (36) 157 (32)

OFCL 22 (51) 39 (49) 52 (47) 60 (45) 80 (41) 104 (37) 146 (33)

NHC Official(1993-2002 116 37445 81 150 225 282


sunset II - I s sswlYa %,ywV1 1%, Ls UL 4.k & V I J.-

I mean) | (2985) | (2726) | (2481) | (2230) 1 (1819) | (265) | (216) I

-Output from these models was unavailable at forecast time.

Table 6: Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19September 2003.

Date/Time Action LocationLittle River Inlet, S.C. Chincoteague Virginia Including

16/1500 Hurricane Watch Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, the lower ChesapeakeIssued Bay south of North Beach Maryland, and the tidal

Potomac.

16/1500 Ical South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet, SCIssued

16/2100 Tropical Storm Watch North of Chincoteague, VA to Little Egg Inlet, NJIssued including Delaware Bay.

17/0300 Hurricane Warning Cape Fear North Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginla17_____ Issued border Including Albemarle and Pamlico sounds.

W7/0300 Taring Issued Uttle River Inlet, SC to Cape Fear, NC

17/0900 Hurricane Warning North Carolina-Virginia border to Chincoteagueextended northward including the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

17/0900 Tropical Storm Watch Little Egg Inlet, NJ to Sandy Hook, NJextended northward

Hurricane Watch South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC and17/1500 changed to Tropical Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ Including

Stor waringDelaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay north of SmithStom warnPoint including the tidal Potomac.

Tropical Storm18/0900 warning extended Sandy Hook, NJ to Moriches Inlet, NY

eastwardHurricane Warning

18/2100 changed to Tropical Cape Fear, NC to Surf City, NCStorm warning

w8/2100 Tropica o Stoim e South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC

Hurricane Waming Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA Including Albemarle19/0100 changed to Tropical and Pamlico sounds and Chesapeake Bay south of

Storm warning Smith Point.

19/0300 Tropical Storm Surf City, NC to Currituck Beach Ught, NC Including thewarning discontinued Albemarle and Pamlico sounds.

19/0900 Tropical Storm Currituck Beach Ught, NC to Chincoteague, VAwarning discontinued Including the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point

19/1500 All coastal warningsdiscontinued


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Huckan* Isabel. -19 Saptembw 2003

- 7.OMS

- TV. D

' - 6. Sky

. .... . e. D.P

. ..... te 1yft

_1 O T UTC PDODS* *2 DTC Pi.Mo Ii LFT-aeo.I : I , :

iI I I.. _ 1 1:I .l ~ - I0- I I. I .

7Vi��7J7V

85 .d .75 -70 .45 0 .55 40 .5 .40 -35 M -

Figure 1: Best track positions for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19 September 2003.

Figure 2: Selected wind estimates/observations and best track maximumsustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19 September

2003. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90% and80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb and 850 mb

respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m winds (sfc),as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the sounding boundary layer

mean (MBL).


~AAs..4 *A. A- AAWFssA S A %..9AwJ asI * i e A "5 - WA a-

I4

9/11 9113 915 917

Date p(Ififay)

9/nt

Figure 3: Selected pressure estimates/observations and best track minimumcentral pressure curve for Hurricane Isabel, 6-19 September 2003.

Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Weather, & TPC Information Topics:Storm Information, Hurricane Awareness, Historical Information,Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us

NOAAJ National Weather ServiceNational Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Hurricane CenterTropical Prediction Center11691 SW 17th StreetMiami, Florida, 33165-2149 USAPage last modified: Tuesday, 16-Mar-2004 17:08:23 MST

Disclaimer Privacy PolicyComments/Feedback

http:H/www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel .shtml? 09/10/2004

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Wet Bulb I Concurrent Dry Bulb_ _ 1 d Avg 5d Avg 30 d Avg ld Avg 5d Avg 30 d Avg

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76.477.275.275.277.076.2

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2345679 100 n return period (years)

11 36.4 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp12 1.4 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

14 -14.4 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp15 3.2 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp

1718 3.14 F intermediate calculation parameter1920 40.8 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature 421 -24.4 Tn (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature22

Reference: Table 1A,Columns 6a-6d, forRichmond, VA, fromChapter 27 of the2001 ASHRAEHandbook -

23 Fundamentals

- (toS.,(F)

- k ,1qF)

Io0-u- LPAA Acd Ad 4QAM/pO~d+ _L4 -4jagoL. Cd�uxj..'VIA�

C.\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Peru,1 ial\Early Site Permits\Temp Extremes.xis

A B | C

2345679 100 n return period (years)11 36.4 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp12 1.4 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

14 -14.4 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp15 3.2 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp1718 =.SQRT(6)/Pl(*(0.5772+LN(LN(A9/(A9-1)))) F Intermediate calculation parameter1920 =Al 1 +A1 8*A1 2 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature21 =A14-A18*A15 Tn (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature22

Reference: Equation (1) from Chapter 27 of the23 2001 ASHRAE Handbook - Fundamentals

Richmond DB & WB.xls

lIDB WB

Max Min Max Min1961 35.6 -17.8 30.6 -18.31962 36.1 -15.6 27.8 -16.31963 35.0 -9.4 26.0 -11.81964 36.7 -17.8 8 27.1 -18.21965 34.4 -16.1 26.7 -16.41966 35.6 -9.8 26.6 -11.41968 36.1 -13.9 27.3 -14.61969 35.6 -9.4 27.8 -10.61970 36.7 -16.1 27.5 -16.71971 33.9 -9.7 26.1 -11.51972 34.4 -16.1 27.3 -17.51973 34.4 -9.8 26.8 -11.11974 35.6 -8.9 25.5 -9.01975 1 5 -9.4 26.3 -10.61971 f 39.4 -9.4 27.8 -11.51979 6-f -9.4 29.2 -10.91980 37.8 -14.4 28.9 -15.01981 36.7 -16.7 28.2 -17.11982 34.4 -15.6 27.3 -17.01984 37.2 -9.4 27.2 -10.61985 37.8 -9.4 27.3 -11.41986 37.2 -11.1 26.3 -12.41988 37.8 -9.4 27.7 -11.11990 38.3 -8.9 25.9 -10.2

Avg 36.2 -12.2 27.3 -13.4Std Dev 1.4 3.4 1.1 3.0

Max 39.4 30.6Min -17.8 -18.3

'2 G q 'O C

010 " ,xvrw4 Q EA MAk kk&L. 39.M /'2N.j -zr ;,4

,00 N J/ .A pu a (m) Z:93

Nkrv^ we ppBA I Q)0'- ~A- tko -ZZI Iz-

o> 610 cAM'u4. Xe W

1U-CDkUJAPSOO'S as Ai

30.9

C:\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Personal\Ear,, ,ite Permits\North Anna\Richmond DB & WB.xis

C

Dry Bull

Wet Bul

)

100 n return period (years)

36.2 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp1.4 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

-12.2 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp3.4 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp

3.14 F Intermediate calculation parameter

40.6 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature-22.8 T, (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature

b

100 n return period (years)

27.3 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp1.1 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

-13.4 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp3.0 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp

3.14 F intermediate calculation parameter

30.9 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature-22.9 Tn (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature

C.\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Personal\Eary Pite Permits\North Anna\Richmond DB & WB.xIs

A B C

2 Dry Bulb35 100 n return period (years)7 =Sheet1 IB29 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp8 =SheetlIB30 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

10 =Sheetl IC29 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp11 =Sheetl 1C30 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp

1314 =-SQRT(6)/P1(*(0.5772+LN(LN(A5/(A5-1)))) F intermediate calculation parameter1516 =A7+A14*A8 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature17 =A1 0-Al 4*A1 1 Tn (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature181920 Wet Bulb2122 100 n return period (years)

24 =Sheetl ID29 M (max) mean of the annual extreme max temp25 =Sheetl1ID30 s (max) standard deviation of the annual extreme max temp

27 =Sheetl IE29 M (min) mean of the annual extreme min temp28 =SheetliE30 s (min) standard deviation of the annual extreme min temp

3031 =-SQRT(6)/Pl(*(0.5772+LN(LN(A22/(A22-1)))) F Intermediate calculation parameter3233 =A24+A31*A25 Tn (max) n-year return period max dry-bulb temperature34 =A27-A31 *A28 Tn (min) n-year return period min dry-bulb temperature

Noni.eAnna

eozaL 3 -CAoLvXCJi

Best Estimate 95% ConfidenceProbability Level Probability Level

1 E 05 1 E-061 1 E-07 1 E-051 1 E-06 1 E-07

maximum wind speed u mi/hl 141 | 197 245 164 216 260

damage threshold Ud mVh 59 59 59 59 59 59

density of air p 0.07414| 0.07414 0.07414 0.07414 0.07414 0.07414

f- scale 21 31 41 31 41 4jexpected tomado width Iw(f) ftI. 4151 920 1650 9201 16501 1650

radius of maximum speed rmax ft 109 172 248 207 282 234

fast rate of pressure drop Ap/At lbIin2/s 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.14 0.23 0.49tomado maximum pressure drop_ Ap lb/in2 0.44 0.85 1.32 0.59 1.03 1.49

translational speed u, ml/h 28 39 49 33 43 52rotational wind speed U, mi/h 113 158J 1961 131 173 208

d radiusof maximum speed rmx ft 911 1451 209 174 237 197I Irate of pressure drop Ap/At lb/in2/s 0.07 0.121 0.16 0.06 0.10 0.20

ltorado maximum pressure drop | ap lb/in2 | _0.62_ 1.211 1.86 0.84 1.45 2.10

[ra translatonal speed ut I ml/h 71 101 121 8 11i 13rotational wind speed Iu mi/h 1341 1871 2331 1561 2051 247

Imaximum wind speed |UO| mith ___I| ::;260.density of air _ Ip i Ib/ft * i 1*i: 0.075i

radius of maximum speed rmax ft | _______ , ,150

Bechtel rate of pressure drop Ap/At lb/in2/s 0.77tomado maximum pressure drop . Ap lb/in [ _ _ 1.5

translational speed u, I mi/h _ ____52

rotational wind speed I u,_| mih [ | 208

C:\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Personal\Early Site Permits\DBT TER Review.xis

Nort. ..i,.na

A B C 0 D E F G H I J123 Best Estimate 95% Confidence

5.E1 1 E-061 1 E-07 1 E-051 1 E-06 1 E-07

7 maximum wind speed u, m/h 1411 1971 245 164| 216 2608 damage threshold Ud mih 591 599 density of air P Iif 0.074141 0.07414 0.07414 0.074141 0.07414 0.07414

11 f-scale r 22 1 3 4 34412 expected tornado width w(f) ft 1 4151 920 16501 9201 1650 1650

14 radius of maximum speed rmax ft 109 172 248 207 282 234

15 rate of pressure drop Ap/At ib/1n 2/s 0.17 0.29 0.38 0.14 0.23 0.4916 torado maximum pressure drop Ap lb/in2 0.44 0.85 1.32 0.59 1.03 1.4917 translational speed Ut ml/h 28 39 49 33 43 5218 rotational wind speed U, mi/h 113 158 196 131 173 208

20 radius of maximum speed rMax ft 91 145 209 174 237 197

21 rate of pressure drop Ap/At lbWin 2%s 0.07 0.12 0.16 0.06 0.10 0.20

22 tornado maximum pressure drop |Ap | b/in 2| 0.62 1.21 1.86 0.84 1.45 2.1023 translational speed ut mi/h . 7 10, 12 8 11 1324 rotational wind speed I u, I mi/h | 1341 1871 233 156 205 24725 -

26 maximum wind speed J u, | mil/h _ | 26027 density of air p b/f10.075

29 radius of maximum speed rmax ft .150

30 Beht rate of pressure drop Ap/At lb/in2/s _ 0.7731 tornado maximum pressure drop Ap Ib/n 2 1.532 translational speed utJ mI/h _ _ 52,33 |rotational wind speed u mi/h | 2081

C:\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Personal\Early Site Permilts\DBT TER Review.xls

Nort,. . a

A B C I D G

23 Best Estimate4 Probability Level5 |0.0000001

7 maximum wind speed u r mri/h 2458 damage threshold Ud mi/h 599 density of air p lb/ft - 0.074 14

11 f-scale I I=lF(G7<73,0,lF(G7<1 13,1,IF(G7<158,2,IF(G7<207,3,IF(G7<261 ,4,5)))))12 expected tornado width I w(f)IftI=lF(Gl 1=0,115,1F(G 1=1,220,IF(Gl 1=2,415,1F(Gl 1=3,920,|F(G 11=4,1650,2050)))))

14 radius of maximum speed r,. ft =G12*G$8/2/G18

15 rate of pressure drop Ap/At lb/in2/s =G16*G17*5280/3600/G1416 fast tornado maximum pressure drop *p lb/in2 =G9*(G18*5280/3600)A2/32.174/14417 translational speed u, mi/h =G7*0.218 rotational wind speed u, mi/h =G7-G17

20 radius of maximum speed rx ft =G12*G$8/2/G2421 rate of pressure drop Ap/At Ib/in2/s _G22*G23*5280/3600/G20

22 slow tornado maximum pressure drop Ap lb/in2 =G9*(G24*5280/3600)A2/32.174/14423 translational speed ut mi/h =G7*0.0524 rotational wind speed u, mi/h =G7-G232526 Imaximumn wind speed u mihI260, -

27 density of air _ J p |b/f7 jO075 - .

29 radius of maximum speed r, ft 150 2 E Ki

30 rate of pressure drop Ap/At WIin 2/s =G31*G32*5280/3600/G2931 Bechtel tornado maximum pressure drop AP lb/in2 =G27*(G33*5280/3600)2/32.174/14432 translational speed ut mi/h =G26*0.233 rotational wind speed ur mi/h =G26-G32

C:\WINDOWS\Profiles\RBH\Personal\Early Site Permits\DBT TER Review.xIs

North Anna

\yAJiA ?%YJt t4 Cc'K i~t"y.x z

PMP Depth (In |Duration (hr) Nov Dec Jan/Feb Mar Apr

0 . 0.0 00 0.0 0.06 15.I J12.0 10.5 y.5y 13.0

24 24.0 18.5 16.0 17.5 19.572 29.5 23.0 20.5 22.0 24.0

481 27.11

Variation of PMP Depths with Duration

35

30

25

C" 20ma)0

. - 15.n-

-'-NovDec

-t-Jan/Febm Mar

-*-Apr

10

5

0

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84

Duration (hr)

Figure 24,--C-hr 10-mi2 FMP, November, (in.).

%A-Ij

83tA00

3

OX

STA 2.3,JA#�.

Ngure -5.--6-hr ,,i2 PAP, Docember,

87

Badure 16. -- 6-hr 1o-m ZC ppJm uarY and PebruaY (in.).

~0

0

Figure 17.--6-hr 10-mi 2 PAP, March, (in.).

t2� 123 119 115 111 107 103 9I2� 95 9V Sr 83 79� 75� 71 67127' 123' 119, I 13, III' 107' 1cW w 93, 91' W W3 79- 75- 71- 67-

4e

4'

37

p � :�j-.

.

/ +.-.STAIITM WAIS

I " 20is

l1l

4$

31 33'

29121

2 25

- -

�* ^,.vi' t IC, Ill07mr 103 99 95' 91* R7 83 79- 75'.11 ...

Figure 18.--1-mi 2 Pfp, Ap-ilZ, (in.).

LA)-A

Figure 34.--24-hr 10-mi2 PMP, November, (in.).

a'

Figure 35.--24-hr 10-mi2 PMP, December, (in.).

V'IV

,i,.me 2 6 .-- 24-hr 20-tn pD aMVadPbW /

en

a%0

Figure 27.--24-hr ia-_M 2 pMp, March, (in.).

Figure 28--24-hr 10i-m 2 PWP, ApriZ, (in.).

ON~H-

MP, Zovemberv (in.).

-j

Figue 44..__72--hr

127- 123' 119, 115, III' 107' loe P9,

I

- z

T 4I

.\ xI

- F II �<00,

0

--- ---- 3

95-I oI' f7l -J- 7 - -& 'I

t AT| |STAYUR AtS

. { t l >J 160 0 'S lo 60.04

-400

As

l1

37

I

~9.29

25

119' 'Ils 1_I- 107' 103' 99' 95 91A 87- We 79- 75-t-

Figure 45 -- 72-hr 10-mi22PMP, December, (in.).

03 67,

37 22

'Figure o-,vi2 47 or

-'MP, -ranuary and Feb11'arY (in.

\30

-.0

Figure 37.--72-hx 10-mi2 PIlP, March, (in.).

t

Figzae 38 .-- 72-hr 20-mi2 pup, Aprit, (in.).

-4I-A

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