CHINA WHY DO WE CARE?CHINA’S ENERGY FUTURE

NS 4053 - Winter 2013

Dan Jones

Nick Devorak

Ryan Harris

Zeb Daniel

OutlineHistory of China Energy

China’s Energy Infrastructure

Energy Breakdown

Internal/External Factors

2040 Outlook

Why Do We Care?

Where do we go from Here?

History of China EnergyChina's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an estimated 9.2

percent in 2011 and 7.8 percent in the first half of 2012, after registering an average growth rate of 10 percent between 2000 and 2011.

• Note: China mitigated the 2008 global financial crisis with a massive $586 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus package spread over two years.

Was a net oil exporter until 1990 and in 2009 became the world's second largest net importer

• Changes Trending:• Breakup of large single Electricity provider into 5-

smaller ones• Oil Providers divesting from specialized roles,

integrating upstream and downstream operations• Static Trends:

• Loose Political Control over Coal, decentralized suppliers

• Strong Political Control over pricing (NECs gaining leverage)

China’s Energy Infrastructure

Central Control and management of resources• Historically inflexible and time lapsed

National Energy Companies• ministry-level SOE until 1988

• Now, diversified, canned competitionOIL – making news• PetroChina Co Ltd (CNPC) – north/upstream• Sinopec – south/downstream• CNOOC Ltd – worldwide/upstream• Sinochem – downstream

COAL – China’s current energy source – 75%• Highly diversified in both mining, generation,

and transmission – inefficient/loose eco regs

NUCLEAR – up and coming

Coal IndustryProduction: 3,226.094 million short tons

Consumption: 3,118.139 million short tons

Imports: 113.655 million short tons

Future Issues and/or Shortfalls: In 2009 china became a net importer of coal for the first time in over two decades. This was a result of increase cost of domestic coal, difficulty of transportation to the power plants, and increased environmental and safety concerns.

Oil IndustryProduction: China produced an estimated 4.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of total oil liquids in 2011, of which 95 percent was crude oil. China's oil production is forecast to rise by about 170 thousand bbl/d to nearly 4.5 million bbl/d by the end of 2013. Over the longer term, EIA predicts a flatter incline for China's production, reaching 4.7 million bbl/d by 2035.

Consumption: 8,924 Thousand Barrels per Day

Imports: 4,635.31 Thousand Barrels per Day

Future Issues and/or Shortfalls:Domestic Price Regulations

LNG and Natural Gas IndustryProduction: 3,334 Billion Cubic Feet

Consumption: 3,768 Billion Cubic Feet

Imports: 435 Billion Cubic Feet

Future Issues and/or Shortfalls:China became a net importer of natural gas in 2007 for the first time in over two decades.Currently accounts for a small percentage of power generation, with the projection of an increase role.

Energy Generation

Production: 78.3.48 Quadrillion BTU18% Hydroelectric, 80% Coal

Consumption: 84.673 Quadrillion BTU

Imports: 6.325 Quadrillion BTU

Future Issues and/or Shortfalls: Industry accounts for 75% of electricity consumption. Became the largest producer of Hydroelectricity in 2010.

2040 Energy OutlookChina’s population will peak around 2030, will see a steep drop in its working-age group. This shift, tied to policies on family size, helps explain why China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth – and its energy demand – is expected to moderate in coming decades.

Non OECD energy demand will grow by close to 60 percent. China’s surge in energy demand will extend over the next two decades then gradually flatten as its economy and population mature. Elsewhere, billions of people will be working to advance their living standards – requiring more energy.

China, which today accounts for close to 50 percent of global coal demand, will see its coal usage fall by more than 10 percent through 2040.

China, which today is one of the largest users of energy for residential/commercial purposes, will see demand flatten in this sector after 2025 as its population nears a peak and energy efficiency continues to improve.

China’s industrial energy demand continues to grow; over the next two decades, it will rise by about another 20 percent. Starting around 2030, China’s industrial energy demand will peak as the country’s population reaches a plateau its economy matures and its infrastructure expands at a more measured pace.

China’s electricity demand will more than double by 2040. However, China will do what the United States and Europe have been doing, which is to shift its electricity generation away from coal.

China’s natural gas demand growth of 15% will be split between the industrial sector and the residential/commercial sector, where distribution lines are being rapidly expanded and gas is very competitive versus liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Source: Exxon Mobile and EIA

Key Internal Factors

Centralized Command and Decision Making vs Global Markets

Diversification of Energy Sources - How to get off of coal?

Energy Demand is Driven by Heavy Industry (Industry-Led Demand)

Consumption-Driven Demand

External Factors

External According to Whom?– Taiwan– Spratly Islands

Developing Alternative Means– Kazakhstan– Myanmar (Burma)

How far can Chinese Foreign Policy Reach?– Sudan

Why Do We Care?

“Strategic Pivot”– Taiwan– Japan– Australia

“String of Pearls”– Chinese Alliances/Agreements

Positive Effects– New Power to Develop Capabilities/Negotiate

Where Do We Go From Here?

Directly to War: Do not pass “Go,” Maybe Collect Profits

Joint Ventures in Energy– Agreements to Sell American LNG (in future)– Tech Aid to Harvest from Latent Shale Reserves

Status Quo– A “Next Cold War?”

Questions?