chapter 10 elections and campaigns. i.campaigns, then and now a.then: campaigns for the nomination...

CHAPTER 10CHAPTER 10Elections and Elections and CampaignsCampaigns

I.I. Campaigns, then and nowCampaigns, then and now

A.A. Then: Campaigns for the Then: Campaigns for the nomination were nearly nonexistent.nomination were nearly nonexistent.– 1.1. Nineteenth century: congressional Nineteenth century: congressional

members from party caucus picked members from party caucus picked candidatecandidate

– 2.2. After nominating conventions After nominating conventions replaced caucuses, local party leaders replaced caucuses, local party leaders or bosses selected candidate.or bosses selected candidate.

I.I. Campaigns, then and now Campaigns, then and now (cont.)(cont.)

B.B. Now: Candidates must orchestrate a Now: Candidates must orchestrate a highly structured campaignhighly structured campaign– 1.1. Run by large staff:Run by large staff:

a)a) Media consultants create Media consultants create advertisements and buy air time from media outlets.advertisements and buy air time from media outlets.

b)b) Direct-mail firms design and produce Direct-mail firms design and produce promotional materials for fund-raising purposes.promotional materials for fund-raising purposes.

c)c) Polling firms survey voters on their Polling firms survey voters on their attitudes toward issues and candidates and run focus attitudes toward issues and candidates and run focus groups.groups.

d)d) Political technology firms supply Political technology firms supply services such as web site design, online advertising, services such as web site design, online advertising, online fund-raising, and voter-targeting.online fund-raising, and voter-targeting.


2 To pay for this help, candidates must raise 2 To pay for this help, candidates must raise and spend large sums of money.and spend large sums of money.

– a) Candidates for the 435 House races spent $1 billion.a) Candidates for the 435 House races spent $1 billion.– b) Candidates for Senate races spent $400 millionb) Candidates for Senate races spent $400 million– c) Candidates for president spent $1.75 billion.c) Candidates for president spent $1.75 billion.– d) The amount spent by presidential candidates has d) The amount spent by presidential candidates has

exploded since 1976, with most of the money going to exploded since 1976, with most of the money going to fund various forms of media, including TV, radio, fund various forms of media, including TV, radio, newspapers, yard signs and the Internet.newspapers, yard signs and the Internet.

33 Largely based on media advertisingLargely based on media advertising– a)a) Large amount of money spent on media Large amount of money spent on media

advertisingadvertising– b)b) Advertisements appeal largely to Advertisements appeal largely to

emotions, such as fear, patriotism, or community emotions, such as fear, patriotism, or community pride.pride.


C.C. Are campaigns better or worse?Are campaigns better or worse?– 1.1. Candidates use polling data to determine Candidates use polling data to determine

voter opinions, positionsvoter opinions, positions– 2. In 2008, both presidential campaigns 2. In 2008, both presidential campaigns

made extensive use of micro-targeting made extensive use of micro-targeting software to reach sets of voters.software to reach sets of voters.

– 3.3. Parties emphasize get-out-the-vote Parties emphasize get-out-the-vote activitiesactivities

– 4.4. Candidates rely heavily on advice of Candidates rely heavily on advice of political consultantspolitical consultants

– 55 “Campaigning” has become synonymous “Campaigning” has become synonymous with “fund-raising”with “fund-raising”


D.D. Campaigns, in the United States and Campaigns, in the United States and abroadabroad– 1.1. Differences in how candidates secure Differences in how candidates secure

party nominationsparty nominations a)a) In America, the nomination is In America, the nomination is

determined by individual effortdetermined by individual effort b)b) In Europe, the nomination is In Europe, the nomination is

determined by party leaders determined by party leaders

– 2.2. Differences in how nominees secure Differences in how nominees secure electoral victoryelectoral victory

a)a) In America, largest role of parties is to In America, largest role of parties is to provide individual candidates with label for voters provide individual candidates with label for voters

b)b) In Europe, elections are largely In Europe, elections are largely contests between parties, not between individual contests between parties, not between individual candidatescandidates

II.II. Presidential versus Presidential versus congressional campaignscongressional campaigns

A.A. DifferencesDifferences– 1.1. Most obvious difference is size: more voter Most obvious difference is size: more voter

participation in presidential campaign, so candidates must participation in presidential campaign, so candidates must work harder and spend morework harder and spend more

– 2.2. Presidential races are more competitive than House Presidential races are more competitive than House races.races.

– 3.3. Lower turnout in off years means that candidates must Lower turnout in off years means that candidates must appeal to more motivated and partisan voters.appeal to more motivated and partisan voters.

– 4.4. Members of Congress can do things for their Members of Congress can do things for their constituents that the president cannot.constituents that the president cannot.

– 5.5. Members of Congress can run as individuals, distancing Members of Congress can run as individuals, distancing themselves from “the mess in Washington”; presidents cannot.themselves from “the mess in Washington”; presidents cannot.

a)a) However, members of Congress may feel voter However, members of Congress may feel voter anger about national affairs, particularly the economy.anger about national affairs, particularly the economy.

b)b) Presidential coattails do not have the value they Presidential coattails do not have the value they once had; some scholars argue they do not exist anymore.once had; some scholars argue they do not exist anymore.

– 6.6. Congressional elections are now substantially Congressional elections are now substantially independent of the presidential election.independent of the presidential election.

II.II. Presidential versus Presidential versus congressional campaigns (cont.)congressional campaigns (cont.)

B.B. Running for presidentRunning for president– 1.1. Getting mentionedGetting mentioned

a)a) David Broder: “The Great Mentioner”David Broder: “The Great Mentioner” b)b) Let it be known to reporters “off the record” that Let it be known to reporters “off the record” that

you are considering running.you are considering running. c)c) Travel around the country making speechesTravel around the country making speeches d)d) Have a famous name (John Glenn)Have a famous name (John Glenn) e)e) Be identified with a major piece of legislationBe identified with a major piece of legislation f)f) Be the governor of a big stateBe the governor of a big state

– 2.2. Setting aside time to runSetting aside time to run a)a) Reagan: six years; Mondale: four yearsReagan: six years; Mondale: four years b)b) May have to resign from office first (Dole in May have to resign from office first (Dole in

1996), though many campaign while in office1996), though many campaign while in office– 3.3. MoneyMoney

a)a) Individuals can give $2,000; PACs can give Individuals can give $2,000; PACs can give $5,000 in each election to each candidate.$5,000 in each election to each candidate.

b)b) Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states in Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states in individual contributions of $250 or less to qualify for federal individual contributions of $250 or less to qualify for federal matching grants to pay for primary campaigns.matching grants to pay for primary campaigns.


4.4. OrganizationOrganization– a)a) A large (paid) staffA large (paid) staff– b)b) VolunteersVolunteers– c)c) Advisers on issues: position papersAdvisers on issues: position papers

5.5. Strategy and themesStrategy and themes– a)a) Incumbents defend their record; challengers Incumbents defend their record; challengers

attack incumbents.attack incumbents.– b)b) Setting the tone (positive or negative)Setting the tone (positive or negative)– c)c) Developing a theme: “trust,” “confidence,” Developing a theme: “trust,” “confidence,”

“compassionate conservatism”; in 2008, Barack “compassionate conservatism”; in 2008, Barack Obama developed the themes “Change you can believe Obama developed the themes “Change you can believe in” and “Yes, we can”.in” and “Yes, we can”.

– d)d) Judging the timing (early momentum versus Judging the timing (early momentum versus reserving resources for later)reserving resources for later)

– e)e) Choosing a target voter: Who is the audience? Choosing a target voter: Who is the audience? Who will change his or her vote?Who will change his or her vote?


C.C. Getting elected to CongressGetting elected to Congress– 1.1. Incumbents with extraordinary advantage—and Congress has Incumbents with extraordinary advantage—and Congress has

no term limits no term limits – 2.2. Each state has two senators; number of House Each state has two senators; number of House

representatives based on state population, as determined by the representatives based on state population, as determined by the censuscensus

– 3.3. House members are now elected from single-member House members are now elected from single-member districts.districts.

– 4.4. District boundaries can affect election outcomes; two enduring District boundaries can affect election outcomes; two enduring problems have characterized congressional electoral politics.problems have characterized congressional electoral politics.

a)a) Malapportionment: districts have very different Malapportionment: districts have very different populations, so the votes in a less-populated district “weigh more” than do populations, so the votes in a less-populated district “weigh more” than do those in a more-populated district.those in a more-populated district.

b)b) Gerrymandering: boundaries are drawn to favor one Gerrymandering: boundaries are drawn to favor one party rather than the other, resulting in odd-shaped districts.party rather than the other, resulting in odd-shaped districts.

– 5.5. Problems associated with House elections:Problems associated with House elections: a)a) Total size of the House, which Congress decided in 1911Total size of the House, which Congress decided in 1911 b)b) Allocating House seats among the states (states gain Allocating House seats among the states (states gain

and lose seats following the census)and lose seats following the census) c)c) Determining the size of congressional districts within Determining the size of congressional districts within

the states, which states have decided in keeping with stringent Supreme the states, which states have decided in keeping with stringent Supreme Court rulingsCourt rulings

d)d) Determining the shapes of congressional districts within Determining the shapes of congressional districts within the states, which states have decided in keeping with stringent Supreme the states, which states have decided in keeping with stringent Supreme Court rulingsCourt rulings


D.D. Winning the congressional primaryWinning the congressional primary– 1.1. Must gather voter signatures to appear Must gather voter signatures to appear

on the ballot for a primary electionon the ballot for a primary election– 2.2. Win party nomination by winning the Win party nomination by winning the

primary election—parties have limited primary election—parties have limited influence over these outcomesinfluence over these outcomes

– 3.3. Run in the general election—incumbents Run in the general election—incumbents almost always win: “sophomore surge” due to almost always win: “sophomore surge” due to use of office to run a strong personal campaignuse of office to run a strong personal campaign

– 4.4. Personalized campaigns offer members Personalized campaigns offer members independence from party in Congressindependence from party in Congress


E.E. Staying in officeStaying in office– 1.1. How members get elected has two How members get elected has two

consequencesconsequences a)a) Legislators are closely tied to local Legislators are closely tied to local

concernsconcerns b)b) Party leaders have little influence in Party leaders have little influence in

Congress, because they cannot influence electoral Congress, because they cannot influence electoral outcomes.outcomes.

– 2.2. Affects how policy is made: members Affects how policy is made: members gear their offices to help individual constituents gear their offices to help individual constituents while securing committee assignments that will while securing committee assignments that will produce benefits for their districts.produce benefits for their districts.

– 3.3. Members must decide how much to be Members must decide how much to be delegates (do what district wants) versus delegates (do what district wants) versus trustees (use their independent judgment).trustees (use their independent judgment).

III.III. Primary versus general Primary versus general campaignscampaigns

A.A. Primary and general campaignsPrimary and general campaigns– 1.1. What works in a primary election may not work in a general What works in a primary election may not work in a general

election, and vice versa.election, and vice versa. a)a) Different voters, workers, media attention in Different voters, workers, media attention in

different types of electionsdifferent types of elections b)b) Must mobilize activists who will give money, Must mobilize activists who will give money,

volunteer, and attend caucusesvolunteer, and attend caucuses c)c) Activists are more ideologically stringent than are Activists are more ideologically stringent than are

the voters at large.the voters at large.– 2.2. Iowa caucusesIowa caucuses

a)a) Held in February of presidential election yearHeld in February of presidential election year b)b) Candidates must do well or be disadvantaged for Candidates must do well or be disadvantaged for

media attention, contributor interestmedia attention, contributor interest c)c) Winners tend to be most liberal Democrat and Winners tend to be most liberal Democrat and

most conservative Republicanmost conservative Republican– 3.3. The balancing actThe balancing act

a)a) Being conservative enough or liberal enough to Being conservative enough or liberal enough to get nominatedget nominated

b)b) Once nominated, move to center to get electedOnce nominated, move to center to get elected c)c) Apparent contradictions can alienate voters from Apparent contradictions can alienate voters from

all candidates.all candidates.– 4.4. Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than

average voters: Kerry took more extreme positions in 2004 primaries, average voters: Kerry took more extreme positions in 2004 primaries, backed away from them after winning Democratic nomination.backed away from them after winning Democratic nomination.

III.III. Primary versus general Primary versus general campaigns (cont.)campaigns (cont.)

B.B. Two kinds of campaign issuesTwo kinds of campaign issues– 1.1. Position issues: issues in which rival candidates Position issues: issues in which rival candidates

have opposing views and voters are divided; a partisan have opposing views and voters are divided; a partisan realignment may resultrealignment may result

a)a) Position issues in 2000: social security, Position issues in 2000: social security, defense, public school choice systemsdefense, public school choice systems

b) In 2008 McCain favored tax cuts, whereas Obama b) In 2008 McCain favored tax cuts, whereas Obama favored increasing taxes for people earning over $200,000favored increasing taxes for people earning over $200,000

c)c) Great party realignments (e.g., 1890s, Great party realignments (e.g., 1890s, 1960s) have been based on position issues1960s) have been based on position issues

– 2.2. Valence issues: issues on which nearly everyone Valence issues: issues on which nearly everyone agrees (strong economy, low crime rates, health-care agrees (strong economy, low crime rates, health-care reform)reform)

a)a) Voters select candidate who seems most Voters select candidate who seems most closely linked to universally shared viewclosely linked to universally shared view

b)b) Increasingly important because television Increasingly important because television leads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired imagesleads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images

c) The 2008 campaign relied on both valence and c) The 2008 campaign relied on both valence and position issues. Both Obama and McCain supported position issues. Both Obama and McCain supported “reforming” the health care system to make it “reforming” the health care system to make it “affordable.”“affordable.”


C.C. Television, debates, and direct mailTelevision, debates, and direct mail– 1.1. Paid advertising (spots)Paid advertising (spots)

a)a) Little-known candidates can increase name Little-known candidates can increase name recognition through the frequent use of spots (example, Carter in recognition through the frequent use of spots (example, Carter in 1976)1976)

b)b) Probably less effect on general than primary Probably less effect on general than primary elections, because most voters rely on many sources for elections, because most voters rely on many sources for informationinformation

– 2.2. News broadcasts (“visuals”)News broadcasts (“visuals”) a)a) Cost littleCost little b)b) May have greater credibility with votersMay have greater credibility with voters c)c) Rely on having television camera crew aroundRely on having television camera crew around d)d) May actually be less informative than spots and May actually be less informative than spots and

therefore make less of an impressiontherefore make less of an impression– 3.3. DebatesDebates

a)a) Usually an advantage only to the challengerUsually an advantage only to the challenger b)b) Reagan in 1980: reassured voters by his Reagan in 1980: reassured voters by his

performanceperformance c)c) 2008 Barack Obama and John McCain: no clear 2008 Barack Obama and John McCain: no clear

winner; not likely to have affected the election resultswinner; not likely to have affected the election results– 4.4. Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debatesRisk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates

a)a) Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches—Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches—campaign themes and proven applause-getting linescampaign themes and proven applause-getting lines

b)b) Sell yourself as much as or more than ideasSell yourself as much as or more than ideas


5.5. Ross Perot’s campaign depended on televisionRoss Perot’s campaign depended on television– a)a) CNN appearancesCNN appearances– b)b) InfomercialsInfomercials– c)c) Televised debates with major party contendersTelevised debates with major party contenders

6.6. In 1996, major networks gave free time to “major” In 1996, major networks gave free time to “major” candidates—and denied it to minor third-party nomineescandidates—and denied it to minor third-party nominees

7.7. The InternetThe Internet– a)a) Makes direct-mail campaigns possibleMakes direct-mail campaigns possible– b)b) Allows candidates to address specific voters via direct Allows candidates to address specific voters via direct

mailmail– c)c) Mailing to specific groups, so more specific views can Mailing to specific groups, so more specific views can

be expressedbe expressed– d)d) Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign based on Internet Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign based on Internet

appealsappeals 8.8. The gap between running a campaign and running The gap between running a campaign and running

the government has been growing.the government has been growing.– a)a) Party leaders had to worry about their candidates’ Party leaders had to worry about their candidates’

reelection, so campaigning and government were linked.reelection, so campaigning and government were linked.– b)b) Today’s consultants work for different people in Today’s consultants work for different people in

different elections and do not participation in governing.different elections and do not participation in governing.

IV.IV. MoneyMoney A.A. The sources of campaign moneyThe sources of campaign money

– 1.1. Presidential primaries: part private, part public Presidential primaries: part private, part public moneymoney

a)a) Federal matching funds for all individuals’ Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or lessdonations of $250 or less

b)b) Gives candidates an incentive to raise Gives candidates an incentive to raise money from small donorsmoney from small donors

c)c) Government also gives lump-sum grants to Government also gives lump-sum grants to parties to cover convention costsparties to cover convention costs

– 2.2. Presidential general elections: all public money Presidential general elections: all public money up to a legal limit of major party candidates and part of up to a legal limit of major party candidates and part of the costs of minor party candidates if they receive 5 to the costs of minor party candidates if they receive 5 to 25 percent of the vote. 25 percent of the vote.

– 3.3. Congressional elections: mostly private moneyCongressional elections: mostly private money a)a) From individuals, political action From individuals, political action

committees, and political partiescommittees, and political parties b)b) Most money comes from individual small Most money comes from individual small

donors ($100–$200 a person)donors ($100–$200 a person)

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) B.B. Campaign finance rulesCampaign finance rules

– 1.1. In 1972, the Watergate scandal In 1972, the Watergate scandal and illegal donations from corporations, and illegal donations from corporations, unions, and individuals catalyzed unions, and individuals catalyzed change.change.

– 2.2. Brought about the 1974 federal Brought about the 1974 federal campaign reform law and Federal campaign reform law and Federal Election Commission (FEC)Election Commission (FEC)

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.)– 3.3. Reform lawReform law

a)a) Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per candidate Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per candidate per election)per election)

b)b) Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations . . . Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations . . . c)c) . . . but allowed them to raise money through PACs . . . but allowed them to raise money through PACs d)d) PAC requirements:PAC requirements:

– (i)(i) Must have at least fifty voluntary membersMust have at least fifty voluntary members– (ii)(ii) Must give to at least five federal candidatesMust give to at least five federal candidates– (iii)(iii) Limited to giving $5,000 per election per candidate, Limited to giving $5,000 per election per candidate,

or no more than $15,000 per year to any political partyor no more than $15,000 per year to any political party e)e) Primary and general election counted separately for Primary and general election counted separately for

donationsdonations f)f) Public funding for presidential campaigns:Public funding for presidential campaigns:

– (i)(i) Matching funds for presidential primary candidates, Matching funds for presidential primary candidates, who meet fund-raising stipulationswho meet fund-raising stipulations

– (ii)(ii) Full funding for presidential general campaigns, for Full funding for presidential general campaigns, for major party candidates major party candidates

– (iii)(iii) Candidates may decline public funding: in 2004, Candidates may decline public funding: in 2004, George W. Bush, John Kerry, and Howard Dean did not accept public George W. Bush, John Kerry, and Howard Dean did not accept public funding and ran on money they had raised privatelyfunding and ran on money they had raised privately

– (iv) In 2008, John McCain declined public financing for the primaries (iv) In 2008, John McCain declined public financing for the primaries but accepted it for the general election. Barack Obama relied entirely but accepted it for the general election. Barack Obama relied entirely on his own funds to support his campaign in the primaries and general on his own funds to support his campaign in the primaries and general election.election.

– (v)(v) Partial funding available for minor party presidential Partial funding available for minor party presidential candidates in the general campaign if they won at least 5 percent of candidates in the general campaign if they won at least 5 percent of the vote in the previous election. (In 2000, the Reform Party and Green the vote in the previous election. (In 2000, the Reform Party and Green Party candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader, respectively, each Party candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader, respectively, each received some funding; neither was eligible in 2004.) No minor party received some funding; neither was eligible in 2004.) No minor party won more than 5 percent in either 2004 or 2008, so no one got public won more than 5 percent in either 2004 or 2008, so no one got public support.support.

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) 4.4. The 1973 reform produced two The 1973 reform produced two

problems:problems:– a)a) Independent expenditures: an Independent expenditures: an

organization or PAC can spend as much as it organization or PAC can spend as much as it wishes on advertising as long as it is not wishes on advertising as long as it is not coordinated with a candidate’s campaign.coordinated with a candidate’s campaign.

– b)b) Soft money: unlimited amounts of money Soft money: unlimited amounts of money may be given to a political party as long as a may be given to a political party as long as a candidate is not named; this money can then candidate is not named; this money can then be spent to help candidates with voting drives be spent to help candidates with voting drives and so on. (Approximately half a billion dollars and so on. (Approximately half a billion dollars in soft money was spent in 2000 and again in in soft money was spent in 2000 and again in 2004.)2004.)

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) C.C. A second campaign finance lawA second campaign finance law

– 1.1. Following 2000 election, desire to reform the Following 2000 election, desire to reform the 1974 law led to the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform 1974 law led to the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, which enacted three changes:Act, which enacted three changes:

a)a) Banned soft money contributions to Banned soft money contributions to national parties from corporations and unions after 2002 national parties from corporations and unions after 2002 electionelection

b)b) Raised the limit on individual donations to Raised the limit on individual donations to $2,000 per candidate per election$2,000 per candidate per election

c)c) Sharply restricted independent Sharply restricted independent expenditures; corporations, unions, trade associations, and expenditures; corporations, unions, trade associations, and nonprofit organizations cannot use their own money for an nonprofit organizations cannot use their own money for an advertisement referring to a candidate by name for thirty advertisement referring to a candidate by name for thirty days before a primary and sixty days before a general days before a primary and sixty days before a general election.election.

– 2.2. Immediately challenged in court as restriction of Immediately challenged in court as restriction of free speech (free speech (McConnell v. Federal Election CommissionMcConnell v. Federal Election Commission, , 2002); Supreme Court upheld almost the entire law2002); Supreme Court upheld almost the entire law

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) D.D. New sources of moneyNew sources of money

– 1.1. 527 organizations: a new source of money under 527 organizations: a new source of money under the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Actthe Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act

a)a) Designed to permit the kind of soft-money Designed to permit the kind of soft-money expenditures once made by political partiesexpenditures once made by political parties

b)b) Can spend their money on politics so long Can spend their money on politics so long as they do not coordinate with a candidate or lobby directly as they do not coordinate with a candidate or lobby directly for that personfor that person

– 2.2. Democratic 527 organizations:Democratic 527 organizations: a)a) The Media FundThe Media Fund b)b) America Coming TogetherAmerica Coming Together c)c) America Votes (and many others)America Votes (and many others)

– 3.3. Republican 527 organizations:Republican 527 organizations: a)a) Progress for AmericaProgress for America b)b) The Leadership ForumThe Leadership Forum c)c) America for Job Security (and many others)America for Job Security (and many others)

– 4.4. In 2004, 527 organizations raised and spent over In 2004, 527 organizations raised and spent over one-third of a billion dollars.one-third of a billion dollars.

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) E.E. Money and winningMoney and winning

– 1.1. Presidential candidates have similar funds Presidential candidates have similar funds because of federal funding.because of federal funding.

– 2.2. During peacetime, presidential elections are During peacetime, presidential elections are usually based on three factors:usually based on three factors:

a)a) Political party affiliation (the 20 percent of Political party affiliation (the 20 percent of voters who swing between the parties)voters who swing between the parties)

b)b) The state of the economyThe state of the economy– (i)(i) Often called “pocketbook voting”Often called “pocketbook voting”– (ii)(ii) Not clear whose pocketbook is being voted, Not clear whose pocketbook is being voted,

though: the individual’s or that of the country as a whole?though: the individual’s or that of the country as a whole? c)c) Character: personal characteristics or Character: personal characteristics or

social/religious valuessocial/religious values– 3.3. Other factors whose influence on the presidential Other factors whose influence on the presidential

campaign is usually overstated:campaign is usually overstated: a)a) Vice-presidential nomineeVice-presidential nominee b)b) Political reportingPolitical reporting c)c) Religion of the presidential candidateReligion of the presidential candidate d)d) Abortion as a single issueAbortion as a single issue

IV.IV. Money (cont.)Money (cont.) 4.4. Congressional races—money has a Congressional races—money has a

decisive effectdecisive effect– a)a) Challenger must spend to be recognizedChallenger must spend to be recognized– b)b) Jacobson: big-spending challengers do Jacobson: big-spending challengers do

betterbetter– c)c) Big-spending incumbents do better than Big-spending incumbents do better than

low-spending oneslow-spending ones 5.5. Advantages of incumbency, in fund-Advantages of incumbency, in fund-

raisingraising– a)a) Can provide services to constituencyCan provide services to constituency– b)b) Can use franked mailingsCan use franked mailings– c)c) Can get free publicity by sponsoring Can get free publicity by sponsoring

legislation or conducting investigationslegislation or conducting investigations

V.V. What decides elections?What decides elections?

A.A. PartyParty– 1.1. Not so simple as it seems: most people Not so simple as it seems: most people

identify as Democrats, but the Democrats lost identify as Democrats, but the Democrats lost six of nine presidential contests between 1968 six of nine presidential contests between 1968 and 2000.and 2000.

– 2.2. Democrats are less wedded to their party Democrats are less wedded to their party than are Republicans.than are Republicans.

– 3.3. Republicans tend to do better among Republicans tend to do better among independents. Since 1960, Republicans have independents. Since 1960, Republicans have won the independent vote seven times; the won the independent vote seven times; the Democrats won it five times.Democrats won it five times.

– 4.4. Republicans have higher turnout.Republicans have higher turnout.

V.V. What decides elections? (cont.) What decides elections? (cont.)

B.B. Issues, especially the economyIssues, especially the economy– 1.1. V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their

own interestsown interests a)a) They know what issues affect them personallyThey know what issues affect them personally b)b) They have strong principles about certain issues They have strong principles about certain issues

(for example, abortion)(for example, abortion)– 2.2. Relatively few voters vote prospectively.Relatively few voters vote prospectively.

a)a) Those voters know the issues and vote Those voters know the issues and vote accordinglyaccordingly

b)b) Most common among activists and special Most common among activists and special interest groupsinterest groups

– 3.3. Most voters vote retrospectively; decides most electionsMost voters vote retrospectively; decides most elections a)a) Voters judge the incumbent’s performance and Voters judge the incumbent’s performance and

vote accordingly.vote accordingly. b)b) Have things gotten better or worse, especially Have things gotten better or worse, especially

economically?economically? c)c) Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984,

1988, 1992, 20081988, 1992, 2008 d)d) Usually helps incumbent, unless economy has Usually helps incumbent, unless economy has

gotten worsegotten worse e)e) Midterm elections: voters tend to turn against Midterm elections: voters tend to turn against

president’s partypresident’s party

V.V. What decides elections? (cont.)What decides elections? (cont.)

C.C. The campaignThe campaign– 1.1. Campaigns do make a difference.Campaigns do make a difference.

a)a) They reawaken voters’ partisan They reawaken voters’ partisan loyalties.loyalties.

b)b) They let voters see how candidates They let voters see how candidates handle and apply pressure.handle and apply pressure.

c)c) They let voters judge the character and They let voters judge the character and core values of the candidates.core values of the candidates.

– 2.2. Campaigns tend to emphasize themes Campaigns tend to emphasize themes over details.over details.

a)a) True throughout American historyTrue throughout American history b)b) What has changed is importance of What has changed is importance of

primary elections.primary elections. c)c) Emphasis on themes gives more Emphasis on themes gives more

influence to single-issue groups with loyal members influence to single-issue groups with loyal members who vote as a blocwho vote as a bloc


D.D. Finding a winning coalitionFinding a winning coalition– 1.1. Ways of looking at various groupsWays of looking at various groups

a)a) How loyal are groups to the candidate or How loyal are groups to the candidate or party?party?

b)b) How important are groups to the How important are groups to the candidate or party?candidate or party?

– 2.2. Democratic coalitionDemocratic coalition a)a) African Americans most loyalAfrican Americans most loyal b)b) Jews almost as loyal as African Jews almost as loyal as African

AmericansAmericans c)c) Hispanics loyal, though somewhat Hispanics loyal, though somewhat

mixed because of underlying ethnic differencesmixed because of underlying ethnic differences– (i)(i) Cubans tend to vote RepublicanCubans tend to vote Republican– (ii)(ii) Mexicans and Puerto Ricans strongly Mexicans and Puerto Ricans strongly

DemocraticDemocratic– (iii)(iii) Turnout among Hispanic voters still quite Turnout among Hispanic voters still quite

lowlow d)d) Catholics, southerners, unionists Catholics, southerners, unionists

departing the coalition departing the coalition


3.3. Republican coalitionRepublican coalition– a)a) Party of business and professional people Party of business and professional people

who are very loyal (exception: 1964)who are very loyal (exception: 1964)– b)b) Farmers are often Republican, but are Farmers are often Republican, but are

quick to change parties.quick to change parties. 4.4. When making demands on party When making demands on party

leaders or presidential candidates, leaders or presidential candidates, representatives of different groups within representatives of different groups within the coalition stress loyalty or numbers but the coalition stress loyalty or numbers but can rarely claim both.can rarely claim both.

VI.VI. The effects of elections on The effects of elections on policypolicy

A.A. The broad trends in winning and The broad trends in winning and losinglosing– 1.1. 1876–1896: Democrats and 1876–1896: Democrats and

Republicans hotly competitiveRepublicans hotly competitive– 2.2. 1896–1932: Republicans dominant 1896–1932: Republicans dominant

partyparty– 3.3. 1932–1952: Democrats dominant 1932–1952: Democrats dominant

partyparty– 4.4. 1952–present: power has changed 1952–present: power has changed

hands frequentlyhands frequently

VI.VI. The effects of elections on The effects of elections on policy (cont.)policy (cont.)

B.B. Argument: Public policy remains Argument: Public policy remains more or less the same no matter more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office.which official or party is in office.– 1.1. Depends on the office and the Depends on the office and the

policypolicy– 2.2. Voters must elect numerous Voters must elect numerous

officeholders.officeholders.– 3.3. Parties have limited ability to build Parties have limited ability to build

coalitions of officeholders.coalitions of officeholders.– 4.4. Winning coalitions may change Winning coalitions may change

from policy to policy.from policy to policy.

VI.VI. The effects of elections on The effects of elections on policy (cont.)policy (cont.)

C.C. Comparison: Great Britain, with Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951.sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951.

D.D. Conclusion: Many American elections do Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.system generally moderates the pace of change.

E.E. Why, then, the perception that elections do Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter? not matter? – 1.1. Because periods of rapid change alternate with Because periods of rapid change alternate with

periods of consolidation.periods of consolidation.– 2.2. Most elections are not “critical”; instead, they are Most elections are not “critical”; instead, they are

retrospective judgments about the incumbent president retrospective judgments about the incumbent president and the current congressional majority.and the current congressional majority.

chapter 10 elections and campaigns. i.campaigns, then and now a.then: campaigns for the nomination...

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