chains on the city: can global value chains unleash the demand for secondary...
TRANSCRIPT
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Chains on the City: Can Global Value Chains Unleash the Demand
for Secondary Cities?
Arti Grover Goswami and Somik V. Lall
Secondary Towns, Jobs and Poverty Reduction: Refocusing the Urbanization Agenda
May 18-19 , 2016
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Motivation (1)• Stability and persistence in the size distribution
of cities
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Motivation (2)• City size distribution is “still”, but the “fast”
churning of industries can trigger a “slow” movement of cities
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Motivation (3)
• Global value chains (GVCs) fundamentally alter the industrial composition of cities / regions
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• Singapore
• Malaysia (Johar Baru)
• Indonesia (Bintan Batam)
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Question
• Can participation in GVCs activate secondary cities?
• Transmission mechanism for Participation in GVCs to the size distribution of cities
• Quantity Effect
• Quality Effect (knowledge)
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Estimation Strategy
• Stage 1:
𝑅𝑖,𝑐,𝑡 is the rank of city i in country c at time t and 𝑃𝑖,𝑐,𝑡 is the population of the given city i in country c at time t .𝛾𝑐,𝑡 is the Zipf’scoefficient
𝑙𝑛𝑅𝑖,𝑐,𝑡 = 𝐴𝑐,𝑡 − 𝛾𝑐,𝑡 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑖,𝑐,𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖,𝑐,𝑡
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Estimation Strategy
• Stage 2:
where 𝜑𝑐,𝑡 is a vector of time and/or country specific fixed effect, as
appropriate. 𝑋𝑐,𝑡 is a vector of country specific characteristics at time t , 𝛽 measures the effect of changes in these variables on city size distribution.
𝛾𝑐,𝑡 = 𝜑𝑐,𝑡 + 𝛽 𝑙𝑛𝑋𝑐,𝑡 + 𝑒𝑐,𝑡
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Data
• Demographic Data: Thomas Brinkhoff (2004): http://www.citypopulation.de/.
• GVCs data: OECD TiVA
Indicators:
• DVA in exports of intermediate products, % gross exports
• Re-imported domestic value added, % gross exports
• DVA embodied in foreign exports, % gross exports
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Country coverage TiVA database
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Descriptive Results
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Descriptive Results
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Descriptive Results
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Descriptive Results
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Descriptive Results
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Descriptive Results
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Base Results
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Base Results
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Results: By Sector
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Conclusions
• GVCs are changing the process of industrialization
• Policies aiming to integrate into GVCs can offer hope for activating secondary cities
• However, data on urban agglomerations suggest that participation in GVCs is not effective in increasing demand for secondary cities. • A higher knowledge content of participation in GVCs is associated with
higher clustering of economic activity in urban agglomerations.
• Issues to sort out – measuring cities and urban agglomerations