cee insights lcy bonds* eurobonds**24 october 2016 cee insights ... factor for cee yields is the...

Erste Group Research – CEE Insights Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange

Erste Group Research CEE Insights | Fixed Income | Central and Eastern Europe 24 October 2016

CEE Insights

Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange

Looking ahead this week…

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

HR: Unemployment HU: No rate change PL: Unemployment RS: Wages

HU: Unemployment SK, HU: Producer Prices SI: Consumer Prices

Click for: this week’s detailed releases/events, market forecasts, macro forecasts

Looking ahead this week, we can see a rather empty macro calendar. The MNB should perhaps be watched on Tuesday, although the base rate is very unlikely to be changed from the current 0.9%. The central bank is

influencing monetary conditions more and more through liquidity management, and any announcement in this regard could be market-moving. However, the target for the limit in the sterilization instrument is already set for the year-end, so this meeting is likely to be less important than the previous one. In Romania, the Constitutional

Country may decide this week on claims by banks that were aimed to challenge the law enabl ing mortgage debtors to walk away from their property even if the loan exceeds the collateral value.

In case you missed it last week…

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accrued interest FX gain/loss capital gain/loss TOTAL RETURN

LCY bonds* Eurobonds**

Poland issued 12Y and 30Y Eurobonds

Parliament passed CHF conversion bill in Romania, which president has not signed yet

Bank Board members signaled that CNB will not abandon

currency regime before 2Q17 in Czech Republic

MNB conducted it first non-regular FX swap tender to provide HUF liquidity temporarily in Hungary

Majority of MPC members support stability of rates in Poland, according to meeting minutes

As expected, Parliament confirmed formation of new government in Croatia

For other events last week, please check respective countries: HR, CZ, HU, PL, RO, TR, SI, SK, SR

On Radar

Local factors were strongly behind the decline of CEE bond yields in the last few quarters. The most important

factor behind this was the improvement in the net international investment position, which is more important for bond yields than government budgets (which have shown a mixed performance, however). Still, a very important factor for CEE yields is the outlook for the ECB policy. Draghi’s own words suggest an abrupt end to QE is

‘unlikely’. Should yields on major European bond markets decline further, due to a longer-lasting dovish policy of the ECB, this could provide room for yield drops. An important market could be the Czech one, however, as a possible extension of the ECB’s QE could provide room for the CNB to postpone the exit from the current CZK cap

regime, which could cool the heavy inflows to shorter-dated bonds and could lift yields on the shorter segment from the current rather depressed levels. (For further details, see the next page.)



Possible extension of ECB’s QE not priced in to CEE LCY bonds

ECB could continue to support local currency bond markets in CEE ‘Is a possible extension of the ECB’s QE already priced into CEE bond yields?’ Croatia: When talking about Eurobonds, Croatia was one of the best performers in the CEE region thus far. However, recent yield developments

indicate that local factors played an important role, with the better than expected macro and fiscal performance and formation of the new government driving yields downwards. Looking forward, the ECB-driven

environment will definitely provide additional support for Croatian yields through the overall sentiment.

Czech Republic: In general, yields on Czech bonds remain very low or negative, due to low inflation, high demand among non-residents and the low price of liquidity. Most importantly, the recent inflow of capital, which is

associated with the forthcoming exit from the FX cap, is the main factor behind the record-low yields (e.g. 2Y bonds around -1%). The possible extension of the QE program poses a risk of postponing the exit from the

CNB FX commitment. In that case, demand among non-residents should slightly decrease, implying lower pressure on Czech yields. However, yields on shorter maturity bonds will remain negative. Hungary: In Hungary, spreads over the 10-year Bund have been relatively stable since summer. Thus, should yields on major European bond markets

decline further, due to a longer-lasting dovish policy of the ECB, this could provide room for yield drops in Hungary as well. In addition, recent rating agency upgrades, in line with a more favorable risk assessment stemming

from the country’s improved economic balance figures, could also suggest lower yields on the longer end of the curve. All in all, we expect a gradual decline in LCY bond yields throughout 2017, provided that the Fed

tightening remains cautious. Finally, the dovish monetary policy of the Hungarian central bank will also have an impact on rates and yields, but to a greater extent on the shorter end of the curve. Poland: In the case of an extension of the ECB’s QE and a more pronounced drop of German yields, we would see the space for the long

end of the Polish curve to move down more visibly. Although the 10Y yield hitting a new all-time low (currently at 1.99%, reached in March 2015) without more pronounced spread tightening seems rather unlikely, we can

easily imagine long-term yields going toward 2.5-2.7% once an extension of QE is announced. Otherwise, we see 10Y yields moderately increasing toward 3.2% in mid-2017. Romania: Romanian bond yields are at lower levels than those suggested by fiscal and inflationary risks, supported by the ample liquidity supply by the

ECB. We foresee 10Y yields close to current levels in the next 3-4 quarters and then on an upward trend. We do not rule out short periods of lower yields in the near future, but it is unlikely that yields would keep falling on a

sustainable basis. We also see a differentiation across the curve in case of surprises from the ECB. While short-term bonds are supported by constant demand from local banks, long-term maturities are more sensitive to a sell-

off, since they are traded mainly by non-residents.



Serbia: Serbian Eurobond yields reflect upward pressure from the rise in US benchmarks, driven by the expected FED hike. On the other hand, LCY

bonds are still trending down, with the improved economic and fiscal position, lower than expected inflation trajectory and accommodative monetary policy playing key roles. Thus, we do not see ECB moves directly

affecting Serbia’s yield performance and we expect future developments to mostly be shaped by US investors, chiefly influenced by US related developments. Slovakia: The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged at the latest meeting. Despite claiming that neither a full QE extension nor tapering of asset

purchases was discussed at the meeting, President Draghi’s words suggest that a decision regarding QE will be taken in December. Draghi’s own words suggest an abrupt end to QE is ‘unlikely’. We expect the ECB to continue its

asset purchases in full at first, before switching to tapering later on. Our yield forecast takes this into account and we expect SK10 yields at 0.5% in 2Q17 before increasing to 0.7% in 4Q17. Slovenia: Slovenian yields have lately exhibited a strong compression trend, declining by approx. 20bp in the past three weeks. We see such

movements largely reflecting the stable fundamental story, on top of the ongoing supportive ECB actions. Since the above-mentioned drivers are seen continuing in the coming period, we expect the yield profile to remain

steady and comfortable.



Looking ahead

Date Time Ctry Release Period Erste Survey Prior Pre Comment

24. Okt. 11:00 HR Unempl. Rate Sep 13.1% 13.1%

Unemployment rate seen remaining unchanged on monthly

level, before seasonal support diminishes and pushes figure

toward higher ground

25. Okt. 10:00 PL Unempl. Rate Sep 8.4% 8.5%Unemployment rate to drop marginally, as labor market

conditions keep improving

25. Okt. 12:00 RS Wages y/y Sep 2.6% 0.3% Low inflation and improving labor market support figure

14:00 HU Base Rate Oct 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Base rate should remain unchanged; however, quantitative

limitations on 3M deposit currently play greater role in

monetary framework than formation of base rate

25. Okt. 14:30 SK CA Balance (m) Aug -384.3 m

26. Okt. 9:00 HU Unempl. Rate Sep 4.8% 4.9% Figures continue to reflect tight labor market

28. Okt. 9:00 SK PPI y/y Sep -3.8% -4.8%Producer price decrease should continue at milder pace than in

previous month

9:00 HU PPI y/y Sep -2.8%

28. Okt. 10:30 SI CPI y/y Oct 0.3% 0.2%Seasonal effect seen pushing headline figure further into green

area by few notches in October

28. Okt. 10:30 SI CPI m/m Oct 0.1%

10:30 SI Retail sales, y/y Sep 4.4% 4.8% Headline figure growth seen remaining strong in September

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters



Major markets The ECB Council has postponed its decision over the duration of the

asset purchase program and the changes to its specifications. There were no clear hints as to the stance toward which the Council is currently inclined. According to Draghi's own statements, an extension

of the asset purchases wasn't even discussed at the meeting, and – also according to Draghi – the opinions of meeting participants on the topic weren't even canvassed. Thus all options remain open, ranging

from an extension of the purchase program at its full size, to tapering of the program – i.e., a gradual reduction of the purchases – beginning in April or any other set of measures.

On Monday, the first flash estimate for October industry PMI data for Germany, France and the Eurozone will be released. In September, the poll data improved in line with the global market environment. Overall,

the industrial sentiment of the Eurozone remained stable in 3Q16, despite the Brexit vote. With a gain of 1.5% y/y in August, Eurozone industrial production surprised on the upside.

Croatia

Last week, the Croatian Parliament approved the new cabinet formed

by the HDZ-Most coalition (supported by 91 out of 151 MPs). Newly appointed PM Plenkovic said that the first item on the new government's agenda will be tax reform (lower personal and corporate income tax)

and a budget proposal (reported target in the region around 2% of GDP), which goes to show that further consolidation efforts remain of key importance for the new cabinet.

The October progress report on Croatia’s Excessive Deficit Procedure showed limited deviation vs. the April notification, as the 2015 deficit figure was slightly revised up by 0.1pp to 3.3% of GDP, while the public debt figure was left unchanged at 86.7% of GDP. The mild revision of

the former was mainly the result of the gross fixed capital formation revision.

Markets showed a steady performance throughout the week, with the

10Y LCY curve still moving around the 3.10% mark, while the exchange rate stayed above the 7.50 level.

Czech Republic PPI inflation arrived at 0.3% m/m and -2.4% y/y in September, from the

-3.4% y/y reached in August. The higher m/m inflation was mainly influenced by higher oil prices. Moreover, last year's negative

contributions from the oil price decrease have been gradually fading from the y/y inflation.

CNB Governor J. Rusnok said that the most likely timing for the exit is currently around mid-2017, but added that it will depend on economic

conditions. In this respect, he said that the exit from the cap could also be in 2018. Two other vice-governors, M. Hampl and V. Tomsik, said that the CNB would not abandon its FX commitment before 2Q17, but

Gerald Walek

[email protected]

Alen Kovac

[email protected]

Ivana Rogic

[email protected]

Jiří Polanský [email protected]

David Navrátil [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



also stressed that the exit will depend on the data and economic situation in the Czech Republic and the Eurozone.

Hungary Gross wages in the Hungarian economy increased by 6.9% y/y in

August vs. the market consensus of 5.3% y/y. The increase in net wages was 8.5% y/y. Thus, taking the -0.1% y/y August inflation into consideration, real wages rose 8.6% y/y. The strong wage increase

reflects the tight labor market conditions in the economy. This week, the government announced that they would lower social contributions, helping companies raise wages further. The government has not

revealed any relevant details yet.

Construction output rose 4.6% m/m s.a. in August, indicating a continuation of the recovery in the construction sector. On the yearly

level, however, output dropped 9% y/y, reflecting a sharp deceleration of EU-funded projects this year compared to the previous record year.

Poland

Both industrial output and retail sales grew below market expectations in September (2.4% y/y and 4.8% y/y, respectively). Although retail sales growth accelerated in 3Q16 compared to the previous quarter,

industry expanded at a much slower pace and construction continued in contraction. We thus see 3Q16 GDP growth below 3% y/y (due mid- November).

The labor market kept improving, as nominal wages grew 3.9% y/y in September and employment increased 3.1% y/y. Good labor market conditions support private consumption growth, which we expect to be

the pillar of growth in 3Q16.

Poland sold EUR 750mn of 12Y Eurobonds priced 48bp above mid-swap (yield at 1.058%) and EUR 500mn of 30Y benchmark priced

120bp above mid-swap (2.122%). The tapping of international markets in 4Q16 is aimed at pre-financing next year’s borrowing needs.

The MPC minutes confirmed that the majority supports a stable policy rate (currently at 1.5%), although some of them see the possibility of a rate cut in

the case of prolonged deflation and slowing growth. The expected slowdown of the growth in 2H16 is not going to be strong enough to trigger a rate cut, while easing deflation supports stability of rates.

Romania

The Parliament unanimously approved the law for conversion of CHF retail loans into RON loans at the FX rate when the loan was granted. CHF retail loans totaled RON 5.8bn (5.2% of total retail loans, 0.8% of

GDP) and there were 51,300 clients with mortgage and consumer loans in CHF as of June 2016. Before signing the bill into law, President Iohannis will require an opinion from the banking sector. The law could

enter into force 2-3 months from now.

The deterioration of the C/A balance slowed down significantly in July and August, due to higher inflows of EU funds for agriculture and lower

dividend outflows. The 12-month rolling sum of the C/A deficit was EUR 3bn in August, while our forecast for FY16 is EUR 3.7bn (2.2% of GDP).

Gergely Ürmössy [email protected]

Orsolya Nyeste

[email protected]

Katarzyna Rzentarzewska

[email protected]

Eugen Sinca eugen.sinca @bcr.ro



A new budget rectification will be carried out in November, according to the finance minister, and the budget deficit target will remain unchanged

at 2.9% of GDP. There will be a redistribution of money within the state budget. The finance minister suggested that the actual budget deficit could be better in 2016 because some investments have not been

made. We see this as positive news, since it increases the chances for the budget deficit to stay close to 3% of GDP in 2017, despite some fresh fiscal stimulus that is in the pipeline

Serbia

Current account data for August shows a continuation of the positive developments, with the YTD C/A deficit compressing by one fifth, mostly

supported by the near 10% drop in the trade deficit, rising services surplus and stable income account performance. FDI inflows increased by 9.9% y/y, standing at EUR 1.2bn in August.

On the bond market, we saw no major developments, as the benchmark RSD 2022 yield stayed relatively flat (5.64%), while EUR/RSD developments continued to reflect appreciation pressures, prompting the

NBS to intervene by buying EUR 30mn on the FX market to tame such pressures.

Slovakia

The Slovak debt management agency conducted three auctions of government bonds in October (with a competitive and non-competitive round in each). Slovakia sold EUR 141.7mn worth of government bonds

due in November 2023 at an average yield of 0.039%. Another auction saw EUR 157.3mn of bonds maturing in January 2031 sold at an average yield of 0.907%. The third auction concerned EUR 101.9mn of bonds

maturing in January 2027 sold at an average yield of 0.518%. The bid to cover ratio stood at 1.2-1.5 in these October auctions. In all auctions, more than half of the amount sold went to non-residents.

Harmonized inflation data confirmed that deflation softened in September, as consumer prices fell by 0.5% y/y. Compared to August, harmonized inflation remained unchanged. We expect deflation to gradually soften

towards the end of the year; however, a more pronounced improvement is likely to occur next year.

Unemployment, as measured by the labor bureaus, fell marginally (by

0.01pp) to 9.42% in September. We expect this favorable development to continue in the coming months.

Slovenia

The August unemployment rate fully matched our expectations, as the headline figure declined by 0.1pp on the monthly level to 10.7%, while also trending 1.1pp lower on an annual basis. We see the favorable labor

market trends continuing for the remainder of the year as well, with stabilized conditions and sustained consumer sentiment supporting the consumption pattern ahead.

Alen Kovac [email protected]

Milan Deskar-Skrbic

[email protected]

Katarina Muchova

[email protected]

Alen Kovac [email protected]

Ivana Rogic [email protected]





We saw no major changes on the bond side, with the benchmark yield (EUR 2025) still moving around the 0.50% mark. In addition, Slovenia

continues with the extension of its debt profile, as the MoF announced a USD 500mn buyback auction for part of the outstanding amount of 2022, 2023 and 2024 USD notes and announced the issuance of new EUR-

denominated notes, with the deadline for tender offers October 25.



Capital market forecasts

Government bond yields

current 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3

Croatia 10Y 3.08 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10

spread (bps) 307 294 294 288 292

Czech Rep. 10Y 0.40 0.34 0.36 0.34 0.36

spread (bps) 40 28 30 22 18

Hungary 10Y 2.88 2.75 2.67 2.59 2.51

spread (bps) 288 269 261 247 233

Poland 10Y 2.97 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.30

spread (bps) 296 284 294 308 312

Romania10Y 2.98 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85

spread (bps) 297 279 279 273 267

Slovakia 10Y 0.44 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55

spread (bps) 43 34 39 38 37

Slovenia 10Y 0.59 0.70 0.70 0.80 0.90

spread (bps) 59 64 64 68 72

Serbia 7Y 5.63 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

DE10Y (BBG)* 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.18

3M Money Market Rate

current 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3

Croatia 0.88 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70

3M forwards - - - -

Czech Republic 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27

3M forwards 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.26

Hungary 0.81 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60

3M forwards 0.74 0.69 0.68 0.67

Poland 1.72 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68

3M forwards 1.77 1.75 1.74 1.75

Romania 0.70 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

3M forwards 0.57 0.62 0.72 1.81

Serbia 3.47 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

3M forwards - - - -

Eurozone -0.31 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25

FX

current 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3

EURHRK 7.51 7.60 7.65 7.55 7.60

forwards 7.53 7.55 7.58 7.60

EURCZK 27.02 27.02 27.02 27.02 27.02

forwards 26.99 26.89 26.79 26.69

EURHUF 308.5 314.0 315.0 315.0 315.0

forwards 309.2 309.9 310.6 311.4

EURPLN 4.33 4.33 4.29 4.31 4.27

forwards 4.35 4.37 4.39 4.42

EURRON 4.50 4.51 4.50 4.50 4.50

forwards 4.51 4.52 4.54 4.55

EURRSD 123.2 123.5 123.5 124.0 124.0

forwards - - - -

EURUSD 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16

Key Interest Rate

current 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3

Croatia 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Czech Republic 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90

Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Romania 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

Serbia 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Macro forecasts

Real GDP growth (%) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.3Czech Republic 4.6 2.6 2.6 3.0Hungary 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6Poland 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.4Romania 3.8 4.5 3.2 3.3Serbia 0.8 2.6 2.9 3.2Slovakia 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.5Slovenia 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.6CEE8 average 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2

Average inflation (%) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia -0.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4Czech Republic 0.3 0.6 2.0 1.9Hungary -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.7Poland -0.9 -0.6 0.9 1.4Romania -0.6 -1.6 1.2 2.0Serbia 1.7 1.3 2.4 3.1Slovakia -0.3 -0.6 0.7 2.0Slovenia -0.5 -0.1 1.3 1.9CEE8 average -0.4 -0.4 1.3 1.8

Unemployment (%) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia 16.3 15.2 14.6 14.0Czech Republic 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.2Hungary 6.8 5.3 4.8 4.5Poland 10.6 9.3 8.7 8.5Romania 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7Serbia 17.7 16.6 16.0 15.6Slovakia 11.5 10.0 9.3 8.4Slovenia 9.0 8.0 7.5 6.9CEE8 average 9.3 8.2 7.8 7.5

Public debt (% of GDP) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia 86.7 86.6 85.7 84.7Czech Republic 40.3 37.2 36.0 36.4Hungary 75.3 75.1 74.3 72.8Poland 51.5 51.9 52.4 52.1Romania 38.4 40.4 41.8 42.3Serbia 75.9 74.5 73.8 72.3Slovakia 52.9 52.7 52.5 51.7Slovenia 83.4 80.6 80.0 78.6CEE8 average 53.8 53.5 53.4 53.0

C/A (%GDP) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia 5.1 2.6 1.4 0.3Czech Republic 0.9 1.9 1.4 1.1Hungary 4.4 5.8 4.5 4.2Poland -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9Romania -1.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7Serbia -4.8 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0Slovakia -1.3 0.6 1.2 2.3Slovenia 5.2 6.5 6.0 5.4CEE8 average 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0

Budget Balance (%GDP) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018fCroatia -3.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.4Czech Republic -0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2Hungary -2.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.5Poland -2.5 -2.7 -3.0 -2.8Romania -0.7 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0Serbia -3.8 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8Slovakia -3.0 -2.2 -1.5 -1.2Slovenia -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8CEE8 average -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.2

Note:*Information on past performance is not a reliable indicator for future performance. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator for future performance.



Appendix

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EUR003M Slovakia 10Y Slovenia 10Y

Note:*Inf ormation on past perf ormance is not a reliable indicator f or f uture perf ormance. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator f or f uture perf ormance.



Contacts Group Research Head of Group Research

Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 11902 Major Markets & Credit Research Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 11909 Ralf Burchert, CEFA (Agency Analyst) +43 (0)5 0100 16314 Hans Engel (Senior Analyst Global Equities) +43 (0)5 0100 19835 Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 84052 Margarita Grushanina (Economist AT, CHF) +43 (0)5 0100 11957 Peter Kaufmann, CFA (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 11183 Stephan Lingnau (Global Equities) +43 (0)5 0100 16574 Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Covered Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 19632 Rainer Singer (Senior Economist Euro, US) +43 (0)5 0100 17331 Bernadett Povazsai-Römhild (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 17203 Elena Statelov, CIIA (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 19641 Gerald Walek, CFA (Economist Euro) +43 (0)5 0100 16360 Katharina Böhm-Klamt (Quantitative Analyst Euro) +43 (0)5 0100 19632 Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 17357 Zoltan Arokszallasi, CFA (Fixed income) +43 (0)5 0100 18781 Katarzyna Rzentarzewska (Fixed income) +43 (0)5 0100 17356 CEE Equity Research Head: Henning Eßkuchen +43 (0)5 0100 19634 Daniel Lion, CIIA (Technology, Ind. Goods&Services) +43 (0)5 0100 17420 Christoph Schultes, MBA, CIIA (Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 11523 Vera Sutedja, CFA, MBA (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 11905 Thomas Unger, CFA (Banks, Insurance) +43 (0)5 0100 17344 Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 17343 Martina Valenta, MBA (Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 11913 Editor Research CEE Brett Aarons +420 956 711 014 Research Croatia/Serbia Head: Mladen Dodig (Equity) +381 11 22 09178 Head: Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 72 37 1383 Anto Augustinovic (Equity) +385 72 37 2833 Milan Deskar-Skrbic (Fixed income) +385 72 37 1349 Magdalena Dolenec (Equity) +385 72 37 1407 Ivana Rogic (Fixed income) +385 72 37 2419 Davor Spoljar, CFA (Equity) +385 72 37 2825 Research Czech Republic

Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 956 765 439 Head: Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 956 765 227 Jiri Polansky (Fixed income) +420 956 765 192 Pavel Smolik (Equity) +420 956 765 434 Jan Sumbera (Equity) +420 956 765 218 Roman Sedmera (Fixed income) +420 956 765 391 Jana Urbankova (Fixed income) +420 956 765 456 Research Hungary Head: József Miró (Equity) +361 235 5131 Gergely Ürmössy (Fixed income) +361 373 2830 András Nagy (Equity) +361 235 5132 Orsolya Nyeste (Fixed income) +361 268 4428 Tamás Pletser, CFA (Oil&Gas) +361 235 5135 Research Poland Head: Magdalena Komaracka, CFA (Equity) +48 22 330 6256 Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254 Tomasz Duda (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 Mateusz Krupa (Equity) +48 22 330 6251 Karol Brodziński (Equity) +48 22 330 6252 Research Romania Head: Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 3735 10427 Head: Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 3735 10433 Chief Analyst: Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 3735 10435 Dorina Ilasco (Fixed Income) +40 3735 10436 Research Slovakia Head: Maria Valachyova, (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185 Katarina Muchova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4762 Research Turkey Umut Ozturk (Equity) +90 212 371 25 30 Oguzhan Evranos (Equity) +90 212 371 25 42

Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna

Group Markets Retail Sales Head: Christian Reiss +43 (0)5 0100 84012 Markets Retail a. Sparkassen Sales AT Head: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 84239 Equity a. Fund Retail Sales Head: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 84232 Fixed Income a. Certificate Sales Head: Uwe Kolar +43 (0)5 0100 83214 Markets Corporate Sales AT Head: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 84146

Fixed Income Institutional Sales

Group Markets Financial Institutions Head: Manfred Neuwirth +43 (0)5 0100 84250 Bank and Institutional Sales Head: Jürgen Niemeier +49 (0)30 8105800 5503 Institutional Sales Western Europe AT, GER, FRA, BENELUX Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)5 0100 84323 Charles-Henry de Fontenilles +43 (0)5 0100 84115 Marc Pichler +43 (0)5 0100 84118 Rene Klasen +49 (0)30 8105800 5521 Dirk Seefeld +49 (0)30 8105800 5523 Bernd Bollhof +49 (0)30 8105800 5525 Bank and Savingsbanks Sales Head: Marc Friebertshäuser +49 (0)711 810400 5540 Sven Kienzle +49 (0)711 810400 5541 Michael Schmotz +43 (0)5 0100 85542 Ulrich Inhofner +43 (0)5 0100 85544 Martina Fux +43 (0)5 0100 84113 Michael Konczer +43 (0)5 0100 84121 Klaus Vosseler +49 (0)711 810400 5560 Andreas Goll +49 (0)711 810400 5561 Mathias Gindele +49 (0)711 810400 5562 Institutional Sales CEE and International Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)5 0100 84254 Central Bank and International Sales Head: Margit Hraschek +43 (0)5 0100 84117 Christian Kössler +43 (0)5 0100 84116 Bernd Thaler +43 (0)5 0100 84119 Institutional Sales PL and CIS Pawel Kielek +48 22 538 6223 Michal Jarmakowicz (Fixed Income) +43 50100 85611 Institutional Sales Slovakia Head: Peter Kniz +421 2 4862 5624 Monika Smelikova +421 2 4862 5629 Institutional Sales Czech Republic Head: Ondrej Cech +420 2 2499 5577 Milan Bartos +420 2 2499 5562 Barbara Suvadova +420 2 2499 5590 Institutional Asset Management Sales Czech Republic Head: Petr Holecek +420 956 765 453 Martin Perina +420 956 765 106 Petr Valenta +420 956 765 140 David Petracek +420 956 765 809 Institutional Sales Croatia Head: Antun Buric +385 (0)7237 2439 Željko Pavičić +385 (0)7237 1494 Ivan Jelavic +385 (0)7237 1638 Institutional Sales Hungary

Attila Hollo +36 1 237 8209 Borbala Csizmadia +36 1 237 8205 Institutional Sales Romania Head: Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 85612 Stefan Racovita +40 373 516 531 Business Support Christopher Lampe-Traupe +43 (0)50100 85507



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