carol tuszynski: animal health foresight project

Animal Health Foresight Project AHFP - 1

Animal HealthForesight Project

2005

Iwada


IWADA Background

International Working Group on Animal Disposal Alternatives

Meetings held in 2000, 2002, 2004

Quadrilateral Group: Canada, United States, Australia & New Zealand, sponsored by CVOs

Recommendations led to 8 pathways for investigation

Foresight was proposed as an innovative methodology:Animal Health Foresight Project (AHFP)


Project Objective

Utilize a foresight approach to stimulate the creation of a new paradigm from which alternatives to large-

scale depopulation could be conceived.


Animal Health Foresight Meetings - 2005

Scoping meeting East Lansing January 2005

Stakeholder meeting Calgary February 2005

Stakeholder meeting Minneapolis March 2005

Synthesis meeting Ottawa April 2005

Participants from:agri-industry policy makersacademia research communityanimal welfare industry associationsIT technologists veterinary community


What is Foresight?

A set of tools for anticipating the future …..

Considers multiple, plausible future scenarios

5-25 year time horizon Accommodates uncertainty and diversity Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

Foresight is not a forecast or prediction

Office of the Office of the Bureau duBureau duNational Science Advisor National Science Advisor Conseiller national des sciencesConseiller national des sciences


Foresight Methodology

Review Current Situation •Why are alternatives needed?

•Who are the stakeholders?

•How are problems managed today?

•What are the attitudes of the public & agri-industry?



Review Current Situation

Identify Key Lenses

•Public Attitudes – fear, anxiety, mistrust

•Public Health & Environment – animal disposal, zoonotic potential

•Science & Technology – tracking, containment, diagnosis, prevention

•Education & Skills – technical, veterinary, communications

•Policy & Regulation

•Economic – industry losses, trade issues




Identify Key Lenses

Identify Change Drivers

• Rate & cost of technical innovation

• Public anxiety

• Hypersensitivity of media, always on world

• Animal welfare advocacy

• Industry advocacy

• Environmental impacts

• Level of animal optimization (waste of protein)

• Regulatory agency capacity

• Terrorist threat potential

• Trade & production economics

• Public health

• Marginalization of veterinary decision-makers




Identify Key Lenses


• Rate & cost of technical innovation

•Public anxiety• Hypersensitivity of media, always on

world

• Animal welfare advocacy

• Industry advocacy

• Environmental impacts

•Level of animal optimization • Regulatory agency capacity

• Terrorist threat potential

• Trade & production economics

• Public health

• Marginalization of veterinary decision-makers


Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed)

Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed)

Level of AnimalOptimization:HIGH (manyalternatives

to MAD*)

Level of AnimalOptimization:

LOW (totally MAD*)

Construct Driver Axes

* Mass Animal

Destruction





to MAD*)


LOW (totally MAD*)

Define Scenarios

Scenario(A)

Scenario(B)

Scenario(C)

Scenario(D)




Identify Key Lenses


Identify 4 Scenarios

Describe Each Scenario


Questions to Help Build a Scenario

1. Discuss reasons for the public’s anxiety level.

2. How are economic choices made in this scenario?

3. What technologies support or drive this scenario?

4. What kinds of policies dominate this scenario?

5. What style & sources of leadership are required or support this scenario?

6. How do the public and media respond when a crisis occurs?

7. What are the roles for government, industry and other stakeholders?

8. How would wildcard events affect this scenario (e.g. tsunami)?




LOW (totally MAD)

Describe Scenarios in 2020

Scenario(A)

• Low levels of trust among all stakeholders

• Fear of disclosure by producers

• Reactive response; short-term fixes; throw money at problems

• Constant crisis management; public sees chaos

• Secrecy & lack of transparency

• Response to crises leaves limited funds for investment in MAD alternatives

• Agri-industry drops best practices – poor ROI

• Unstable animal & public health infrastructures

• Media interest is high




LOW (totally MAD)


Scenario(B)

• Governments in total control – ‘Big Brother’/’Nanny Society’

• Emphasis on ‘zero-risk’ food supply; application of precautionary principle

• Multi-national producers move off-shore

• Urban media demands government action

• Dissolution of stakeholder partnerships

____________________________________

• Early detection & rapid response, ‘mini-MAD’

• Multinational leadership, global food system

• MAD alternatives are not developed or not effective

• Potential switch to other forms of protein

• Animal health events - low incidence, low visibility




to MAD)


Scenario(C)

• Very rapid adoption of new technologies

• Disconnect between public and science

• Belief that industry decisions driven by economics

• Public feels loss of control, feel forced to accept undetermined risk

• Cherry-picking evidence to suit outcomes

• Govt/industry relations with media are not good, see media as fanning public fear

• Science education not highly valued

• Industry & govt practice public relations and marketing in their communications




to MAD)


Scenario(D)

• Transparency (real & perceived)

• Effective & consistent communications channels

• Good infrastructure for fast crisis management

• Spectrum of ‘smart’ applications (eg bio-sensors)

• Convergence of human and animal health

• Buy-in to concept of adaptive risk management

• International collaboration & containment

• Strong relations among all stakeholders

• Agri-industry self-regulates & takes leadership role

• Strategic investment & adoption of technology





to MAD*)


LOW (totally MAD*)

Where Are We Today?

* Mass Animal

Destruction




LOW (totally MAD)

Actions to “Reverse Course”

“Failure”Scenario

CurrentSituation

“EventHorizon”

• Foresight builds stakeholder engagement

• Government facilitates multi-stakeholder Commission

• Agri-industry convenes Best Practices Summit for disease control & prevention, standards and risk communication

• Leaders of public & animal health announce new initiative: “Healthy People-Healthy Animals by 2020”

• Transition plan agreed – public and media involved




LOW (totally MAD)

Actions towards “Optimum Scenario”


CurrentSituation

“EventHorizon”


to MAD)


“Optimum”Scenario



Actions to Increase Animal Optimization


CurrentSituation

“EventHorizon”

• High impact technologies identified and investments made

• Incentives to share data and report disease (rapid info collection technology)

• Pre-emptive plan ready for next crisis

•Technology-enabled mini-MAD adopted

• Global Knowledge Web set up & funded by G8 – includes Public Health (convergence)

• Global network for epi-predictive modeling

• International standards changed to match risk management approach


to MAD)




Actions to Reduce Public Anxiety

Scenario(A)

CurrentSituation

“EventHorizon”

•Tracking & diagnostic technologies become ubiquitous

•Consumers empowered to make informed decisions

•New media used for risk communications

•Animal rights and other organizations involved in solutions

•New animal products are linked to better public health

•Public trust building – listening, transparency




Critical Change Elements

OptimumScenario

Science &Technology

R&D


Critical Change Elements

OptimumScenario

Education

Engagement

Communications

InformationManagement

Science &Technology

R&D


A New Paradigm for Animal Health Proactive management of risk

– shifts response mechanism from destruction to utilization, “management for advantage”

– definition of health and well-being does not mean absence of disease

Sharing of decision-making responsibility & accountability among all stakeholders, optimizing their engagement– governments facilitate instead of direct; become change catalysts– self-efficacy for consumers– industry assumes an active leadership role

A convergence of Animal Health & Public Health strategies, interests and priorities, relating to zoonotic diseases– recognize the interdependence of animal agriculture & broader societal

needs– a significant shift from current compartmentalization (silos)

carol tuszynski: animal health foresight project

Documents