CARBON FLUXES OVER TEMPERATE ASIA

N K INDIRA, PS SWATHI, PETER RAYNER, MICHEL RAMONET AND VINOD K GAUR

ANSWERS SOUGHT:• How would future climate trends evolve in response to

specified carbon emissions over a given period ?• How are we faring in achieving desired goals assuming

some agreed regulatory measures in place ?

and temperature

C(X*,t*)=Fn(Xj,tj)[δj*] C(X*,t*)=F(Xj,tj) * G(X*,X,t*,t)C(X*,t*)

Inverse mode

•CO2 net fluxesa priori estimation

xb ; var/cov P

Atmospheric transport

H

Atmos. Conc.simulated

ymodel

Observationsyo ; var/cov R

Atmospheric transport model

Forward mode

Sc - ( C V ) = ( C) t

UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON FLUX ESTIMATION

•UNCERTAINTIES IN TRANSPORT MODELS

• INADEQUATE CONCENTRATION OBSERVATIONS (GURNEY 2002)

TransCom Regions

The highest CO2 observatory in the worldProbably the only one powered by solar energy

ATMOSPH. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS AT HANLEATMOSPH. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS AT HANLEAND FLUX ESTIMATIONS FOR TEMERATE ASIAAND FLUX ESTIMATIONS FOR TEMERATE ASIA

NETWORK DESIGN FOR IMPROVED NETWORK DESIGN FOR IMPROVED COCO22 FLUX ESTIMATIONS FLUX ESTIMATIONS

APPROACH: MINIMISATION OF THE TRACE OF THE COVARIANCES

C(S) -1 = C(So) -1 + JT C(D) -1 J

OF GLOBAL OR EGIONAL SUB-MATRICES USING THE GENETIC ALGORITHM.

FIGURE SHOWS GLOBAL TRACE METRIC AS A FUNCTION OF ONE ADDITIONAL STATION FIGURE SHOWS GLOBAL TRACE METRIC AS A FUNCTION OF ONE ADDITIONAL STATION TO THE NETWORK OF GURNEY (2004). THE NUMBERS SHOW THE LOCATION S TO THE NETWORK OF GURNEY (2004). THE NUMBERS SHOW THE LOCATION S CHOSEN BY GA FOR 1, 2 OR 5, STATION NETWORKS WHICH MATCHES THE SCORE BESTCHOSEN BY GA FOR 1, 2 OR 5, STATION NETWORKS WHICH MATCHES THE SCORE BEST.

Stations numbered 5 are located by GA, +s are the stations originally chosen

PROBLEMS

•REDUCTION/ ATTRIBUTION OF UNCERTAINTIES IN FLUX ESTIMATIONS BECAUSE OF

INADEQUATE DATA

• TENDENCY FOR OPTIMAL NETWORKS IDENTIFIED BY GA TO HAVE CLUSTERING OF

STATIONS

C(D) = AT CT(D) + AN CN(D)

[ CT(D)i ]1/2 ~ 0.32 + (0.32/M) VARi q(i,t) [ CN(D)i ]1/2 ~ NPPi exp[(- (Pi - P*)/H]

Upper left figure represents the advective Cd

and the upper right , that due to PP. The lower left is the total effect