capital raising and financing options for asian mining operations - cs presentation

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Confidential October 20, 2009 Presentation at the China Mining Congress 2009 These materials may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse. Capital raising and financing options for Asian mining operations Alberto Migliucci, Head of Southeast Asia Mining

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Page 1: Capital raising and financing options for Asian mining operations - CS presentation

Confidential

October 20, 2009Presentation at the China Mining Congress 2009

These materials may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse.

Capital raising and financing options for Asian mining operationsAlberto Migliucci, Head of Southeast Asia Mining

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Confidential

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Table of contents

1. Overview of global mining industry

2. Overview of Credit Suisse

3. Financing mining projects

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Confidential

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1. Overview of global mining industry

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Perspectives on recent global trends in miningPriceoutlook

Capital costs

Valuations

Financing

! Commodities markets remain volatile though recovery seen in recent months−Strengthening US dollar and global macro-economic concerns

! Commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure in H2 2009 and recover in H1 2010 on the back of production cuts and demand recovery

! Significant rise in project capital costs has led many companies to reassess their project pipelines

! However, recent drop in raw materials costs and depreciating currencies likely to help

! Share prices for many mining companies were down 50%-75% 1H 2009 vs 1H2008 ! Strategic investors still pay top dollar for high quality coal assets

− Rio Tinto asset sale to Chinalco at 124% premium to market enterprise value− Jacobs Ranch coal mine sold to Arch Coal for 10.4x pro-forma 2008 EBITDA

! Financing remains challenging - limited capacity and financing costs have increased significantly

! All deals face increased hurdles

! Project financings are struggling in the current environment - highest quality assets will come back first

! Global mining M&A has dropped off significantly in 2009! The dramatic changes in commodity markets has led to deals being re-negotiated - some

have been repudiated! Drivers for consolidation remain in place but M&A targets (both assets and corporates) are

being reassessed given the new environment! A wide variety of players see value in the sector � Sovereign Wealth Funds, off-takers,

sponsors, etc.

M&A activity

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4

0

100

200

300

Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09(200)

(100)

0.0

100

200

300

Global Diversified Base Metals Zinc & Lead Nickel

Copper Gold & Silver Global Coal

Gold (rebased to 100) Zinc (rebased to 100) Lead (rebased to 100)

Copper (rebased to 100) Nickel (rebased to 100) NEWC (rebased to 100)

Global mining sector update

Share price performance and commodity prices have been severely dampened by the global financial crisis but recent stability could point towards a recovery

LTM share price performance

! Strong volatility in the global metals and mining universe over 2009 but valuations have since stabilized over the past few months

! All commodities suffered significantly in the wake of the crisis except for gold ! Gains registered by base metals miners, precious metals miners and coal miners in the first

half of 2008 were wiped out in the second half

Valuation multiples

Commodity Indices

Commodity Prices (rebased to 100)

Source: Factset as of 27 May 2009

Reduced volatility over the past few months

Global diversified base metals

4.2x 5.8x10.0x

17.6x

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

Dec 2008 Sep 2009

Zinc & Lead 5.9x 8.7x7.4x

17.7x

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

Nickel 4.4x10.3x11.2x

21.7x

0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

Copper 3.2x 5.5x8.6x14.3x

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

Gold & Silver 8.5x15.9x13.8x

20.4x

0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

Global Coal4.1x 5.2x

8.8x14.5x

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

EV/EBITDA '09 P/E '09

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2. Overview of Credit Suisse

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Credit Suisse�s leadership is widely acknowledged by the investment community

The Banker recognized the success of Credit Suisse�s client-focused model, disciplined approach to risk taking, progress on cost and efficiency measures and our distinctive business mix.

�Tough decisions taken in 2007 and 2008 leave Credit Suisse� investment bank in a prime position for the years ahead�

�By concentrating on client-related business, the firm has been able to increase market share across all of its main businesses. That sounds like the very model of a modern investment bank.�

�Credit Suisse is our top pick within global investment banks, ticking all the right boxes: i) ongoing market share gains in IB, ii) restructuring of cost and risk taking businesses within IB, iii) no management turnover, iv) limited credit risk, v) and capital strength.�

JP Morgan

While 2009 will remain a challenging year, we believe that Credit Suisse has sufficient levers to exploit good openings in the market such as trading conditions in 1Q09 and asset outflows from competitors�Though levered, Credit Suisse has capital flexibility vs. peers to profit more from any improvements/opportunities

Morgan Stanley

Credit Suisse offers investors a cost-cutting story and owing to fair value accounting, fewer asset quality concerns than most European banks�we like owning the "best in class" European investment bank and rate it a Buy.

Bank of America � Merrill Lynch

Credit Suisse � was quick to scale down its balance-sheet, has plotted a credible strategy for its investment bank and pulled well ahead of UBS.�

The Economist

Credit Suisse is the undisputable investment banking leader

2009

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Credit Suisse � Coal House of the Year

! Voted Coal House of the Year 2009 in the Energy Risk Awards 2009 for building its position as one of the top 3 market-makers in financial coal markets from scratch over the past 18 months

! Differentiating alliance with Glencore, coupled with strong emerging market platform in countries such as Indonesia

! Dedicated coal derivatives team of 4 coal and freight traders and 35 sales staff

! Customer base grew tenfold in 2008

�We are involved in more than 60% of all options transactions in the market.�

Meindert WitteveenHead of Coal, Freight and UK Gas Trading,

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse

Coal House of the Year

�Our specialist coverage has allowed us to expand our client base past the usual corporates hedging their revenue stream or input costs, and enabled us to leverage Credit Suisse�s relationships with commodity hedge funds, macro and multistrategy hedge funds as well as credit and equity funds that have exposure in companies with significant coal price risk�

Alex TooneGlobal Head of Commodities Sales,

Credit Suisse

�Our specialists understand the physical markets and the fundamentals and work with our alliance partner Glencore to get real, up-to-date information on flows in the market. We think this adds a lot of value to our client base, both institutions and corporates, giving us a real edge compared to other banks in the market�

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Best M&A franchise

�Best M&A House�! Euromoney

− �Credit Suisse has delivered a strong record across all regions and in several different countries�it�s Credit Suisse�s achievements in Russia, Brazil and China that really stands out�− �In China, Credit Suisse showed its strength in the technology sector when it helped Focus Media on a $1.4 billion sale of its outdoor digital advertising business to the country�s biggest

portal website, Sina�. It is the biggest ever technology M&A transaction in China.�− �Credit Suisse�s most impressive deal in the region was acting as adviser to the biggest shareholder of Wing Lung Bank on the $4.7 billion sale of the bank to China Merchants Bank...The

deal is the biggest Hong Kong bank M&A transaction in the past seven years.�− �Other impressive deals in Asia include the biggest ever M&A deals in Indonesia and the Philippines, and the largest ever cross-border transactions between the Middle East and Asia, and

between Malaysia and Indonesia.�! The Asset

− �Credit Suisse continues to dominate Indonesian market with strong leadership across all products as it retains the Triple A accolade for Best M&A House Awards�− �As the only investment bank to be involved in the three largest and high profile cross-border deals in the 12-months to September 2008, Credit Suisse is an easy choice for the Triple A

Best M&A House in Singapore�− �Credit Suisse continues to execute deals and secure landmark mandates amid the decline in transaction volumes due to unfavourable domestic economic conditions [in Vietnam] and the

prevailing global credit crunch�− �Credit Suisse manifested leadership in M&A transactions in South Korea, leading several cross-border deals that helped transform Korean companies� �

Best M&A HouseKorea

2008 2008

Best M&A HouseIndonesia

Best M&A HouseSingapore

2008

2008

Best M&A DealAustraliaPrimary Health Care Acquisition and Financing of Symbion Health

Best M&A DealAustralia

Commonwealth Bank Group/Bank of Western Australia and St Andrew�s Australia

2008 2008

Best M&A DealAustralia

Commonwealth Bank Group/Bank of Western Australia and St Andrew�s Australia

2008

Best Syndicated LoanAustraliaA$2.5bn loan for Primary Health�s hostile acquisition of Symbion

2009

Best Emerging MarketsM&A House

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3. Financing mining projects

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Credit markets are going through unprecedented volatility with limited liquidity

Liquidity

!Depressed commodity prices also not helping

!Limited new issuance in capital markets from HY Asian issuers for last 12 months

!Lack of deep local bank markets in most mining countries, even Australian banks are slowing credit growth

!Regional banks (DBS, Korean, Taiwanese, Chinese) and international banks (Japanese, French, German, US) have changed focus to their home markets as they are tied by strings that come with stimulus / govt support

!Contractor / supplier financing is one alternative

!PE / Equity sale is another

Pricing

!Emerging market credit spreads are at all time high

!Local and foreign bank markets are open to deals with right structure and pricing. Pricing has moved up and structures are tighter

Impact of current credit market turmoil

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Type / Structure

!Development / exploration funding most impacted. Growth / expansion capital still available to mid-large size operators

!Industry also saw inexperienced / new entrants take on greenfield ventures during commodity boom (especially in Indo), most of the financiers to these operations are now struggling with recovery

!Better investor reception for structured / secured deals with security over cash flows. Structure needs to be secure to attract investors

Flight to Quality

!Hedge funds / institutional investors looking for value in equity

!Banks like CS continue to be selective with whom they work

!Its clear now that some of the weak players in current commodity price environment will fail

Impact of current credit market turmoil (cont�d)

Investors are increasing pushing for a flight to quality in credit names

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Mining project lifecycle

1.Acquire survey data

2.Bid for working area

1.Geological / subsurface / geophysical study

2.Seismic study (2D / 3D)

3.Exploration drilling4.Core tests

Phase

Characteristics

Activities

Working interest Exploration ProductionDevelopment

Low / medium capex

High riskLow capexLow risk

High capex Medium risk

1.Pre-Stripping2.Construction3.Infrastructure4.Processing

1.Mineral production2.New mines/areas3.Reclamation &

rehabilitation

NPV

Po

sit

ive

N

eg

at i

ve

0

Define budget and work program

Commercial discovery

Independent reserve/resource certification

Production start-up

Secondary areas

Offtakeagreement

Timeline

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Available source of financing for mining projects

!Regulatory constraints!Limited level of risk appetite!Limited access to USD funding

"Lower cost of funds

"May offer the tightest margins

Local Commercial Banks

!Selective industry / sector coverage!May not have sufficient presence or

local knowledge

"Higher risk appetite than local banks

"May offer competitive rates to establish relationship and market foothold

Foreign Commercial Banks

!Corporate lending deals vs. project asset

!Typically require corporate audited accounts, ratings and offering docs

!Limited flexibility on structure!Bond markets are currently

challenging

"Less stringent on structure (eg. security and amortizations)

"May allow for tighter pricing and longer tenure

Bond Markets

!Complicated execution process!Cashflows have to be captured and

deployed offshore

"May allow for tighter pricing and longer tenure

CashflowSecuritization

!Limited leverage "Basic form of financing structure with clear security package and cover

Lease / Asset backed financing

!Highly complicated!Execution could potentially take 12-

18 months or longer

"Well-established financing structure

"Available for greenfield projects

Project Financing

Pros Cons

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Project financing

! Typically covers construction period to end of useful life! Requires contractual arrangements on:

− Procurement of asset / equipment from reputable suppliers− Customer contracts (long-term take-or-pay contracts)− Third party or reputable operator− Size of US$100-500mm, economies of scale− Non-recourse project company

Equity

Debt

$ Upfront

Project Co / Asset

OwnerSuppliers

Equipment Services

$ Periodic

Customer

Operator

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Lease financing

! Suitable for moving assets or assets that may be redeployed! Lessor owns the assets during the life of the transaction! Possible tax advantages for the lessee! Typically only upon delivery of asset / equipment to lessee

LesseeEquipment

Suppliers

Services

$ Periodic

Customer

Lessor

$ Periodic

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Cash flow securitization

! Typically for operating assets generating cash flows! Diversification of assets / customers improving deal economics! Requires security over assets and cash flows! Requires long term contracts with customers on take-or-pay basis and/or collateralisation of

cash flows! Diversification of assets and customers improves pricing on these deals! Structure can be applied to bank, bond markets or private financings

Asset Owner

Services

$ Periodic

Customer

Lenders$ Secured

Assets secured

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Emergence of Private Placement Market

! Over the last 4-5 years the private placement market has matured significantly

! Private placement market offers an alternative to traditional bank and bond /capital markets

! Private placements allow access to institutional investors and allows issuers to share forward looking projections / business plans that are not allowed in bond markets

! Private placement investors require access to management and due diligence, thus allowing issuers to better sell their credit story

! Estimated issuance of $20-25 billion in the structured private placement market since 2003. Credit Suisse leads this market with over $11 billion of private placements

! Ideally suited to mid-size companies which are not ready for listed bond market or have limited access to bank market

! Private market should be used in addition to bank lines and should not be treated as a replacement for the working capital bank lines

! Private deals can be structured as loans or bonds

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Conclusion

Banks

! Focused now on restructuring given the economic crisis

! Increased losses and defaults in mining projects

! Less aggressive, specifically on

− Greenfield

− Commodities

− Execution/Development risks

New Lending

! Back to basics

! Higher grade credits

! Well collateralized structures

! Larger corporates

! Local banks still have local currency appetite

Credit Suisse

! Appetite on a selected basis

Page 20: Capital raising and financing options for Asian mining operations - CS presentation

These materials have been provided to you by Credit Suisse in connection with an actual or potential mandate or engagement and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse. In addition, these materials may not be disclosed, in whole or in part, or summarized or otherwise referred to except as agreed in writing by Credit Suisse. The information used in preparing these materials was obtained from or through you or your representatives or from public sources. Credit Suisse assumes no responsibility for independent verification of such information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by or reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and Credit Suisse assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. Nothing contained herein should be construed as tax, accounting or legal advice. You (and each of your employees, representatives or other agents) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of the transactions contemplated by these materials and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to you relating to such tax treatment and structure. For this purpose, the tax treatment of a transaction is the purported or claimed US federal income tax treatment of the transaction and the tax structure of a transaction is any fact that may be relevant to understanding the purported or claimed US federal income tax treatment of the transaction.

Credit Suisse has adopted policies and guidelines designed to preserve the independence of its research analysts. Credit Suisse�s policies prohibit employees from directly or indirectly offering a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a research rating or price target, as consideration for or an inducement to obtain business or other compensation. Credit Suisse�s policies prohibit research analysts from being compensated for their involvement in investment banking transactions.

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CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED

One Raffles Link#03-01/#04-01 South LobbySingapore 039393

Tel: (65) 6306 7305 Fax: (65) 6212 7356 Mob: (65) 9826 9720 Email: [email protected]

www.credit-suisse.com

Alberto Migliucci

Director - Investment Banking

Head of Mining and Oil & Gas, South East Asia