california geological survey – “probabilistic tsunami modeling and public policy” (rick...
TRANSCRIPT
Rick Wilson, California Geological Survey
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and Public Policy
Partners =
Community
StateFederalNational Tsunami Hazard
Mitigation Program
California Tsunami Steering Committee
CA Office of Emergency ServicesCA Geological Survey
20 coastal counties
California Tsunami Policy Work Group
Tsunami Warning Centers
and Regional National Weather Service Forecast Offices
Coordinating CommitteeMapping and Modeling Subcommittee
Mitigation and Education SubcommitteeWarning Coordination Subcommittee
Evacuation/Emergency response planning
Maritime planning
Land-use planning
Recovery planning
www.tsunami.ca.gov
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Projects in California
California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act: Project–level assessment and real-estate disclosure
Expert Work Group assisting in review of pilot study work in Crescent City and Huntington Beach
Initial probabilistic modeling completed by URS Corp. and Univ. of Washington in parts of California
Initial findings completed and report being generated
Guidance on application will come from California Tsunami Policy Work Group
A second phase of work and mapping is being initiated
Status of Probabilistic/Land-use Mapping in CA
Crescent City
Huntington Beach
Initial Findings of CA-PTHA Work Group
PTHA in California scientifically feasible and appropriate for use
Tsunami model and map results are most sensitive to source characterization, especially fault slip/uplift amount
Alignment with formal Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis vital, especially for national production of consistent products (building code, policymakers, and NTHMP)
Application of probabilistic analysis will improve the understanding of the tsunami risk, as long as:
input parameters are correct uncertainties are well understood and
translatable products are accurate, consistent, and
easy to understand
P R E L I M I N A R Y
URS Consultants, 2012 for Caltrans/PEER/CGS
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Crescent City; blue line
is 2009 state inundation map line
Uses for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard AnalysisOur concept: Produce single set of risk maps/products for multiple uses
› Project–level assessment and real-estate disclosure (CGS-Seismic Hazard Mapping Act)
› Land-use planning (communities, CA Coastal Commission)
› Standardized hazard analysis for evacuation planning (Cal-OES)
› Building design and construction , critical facilities (ASCE, Uniform/ International Building Code, Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
› Flood protection and insurance (FEMA, Risk MAP, CA-Dept. of Water Resources)
› Input for consistent risk analysis and damage estimates (HAZUS)
Preliminary risk levels for different applications
Preliminary products for different applications
PILOT STUDIES•Probabilistic Hazard •Community Analysis
•Maritime Products
Implementation
TSUNAMI SCENARIO
•Vulnerability Analysis•Social & Economic•Structural Damage
Impact
POLICY WORKING GROUP
•Land Use – Construction•Emergency Management
•Recovery
Issues
POLICY MAKERSGuidance - Regulations
• Local• State
• Federal
Action
(Soft) (Hard)
Formed in October 2011 to address issues for both the state tsunami program and the USGS tsunami scenario project called “Science Applications for Risk Reduction” (SAFRR)
Work Group is a voluntary advisory board comprised of state, federal, and local government representatives, as well as private organizations with interest in coastal planning
Charged with identifying, evaluating and making recommendations to resolve issues preventing full and effective implementation of tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction at a local level
Work Group has evaluated the status of tsunami hazard assessment, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery activities in the state and identified the needs to sustain existing programs or implement new programs
California Tsunami Policy Work Group
Figure from Real and others, 2012
California Tsunami Policy Work GroupNotable Federal and State Legislation and Programs
(from Johnson and Real, 2013)
FEDERAL LEGISLATION
Tsunami Warning and Education Act of 2006 (preparedness and mitigation)
Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (planning)
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (mitigation)
Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (mitigation and recovery)
STATE PROGRAMS
California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program (hazard assessment, preparedness, mitigation, response)
California Tsunami Policy Work Group (policy and planning)
Safety Element in Local General Plans (planning)
California Coastal Commission (planning)
California Building Standards Code (mitigation)
FEDERAL PROGRAMS
National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (preparedness, mitigation, response)
TsunamiReady Program (preparedness)
National Response Framework (response)
National Disaster Recovery Framework (recovery)
FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps and RiskMAP (mitigation and recovery)
STATE LEGISLATION
Seismic Hazard Mapping Act of 1990 (mitigation)
California Coastal Act of 1976 (mitigation and planning)
California Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 (recovery – environmental)
NOTE: Tsunami specific in red
California Tsunami Policy Work GroupPossible Courses of Action
(from Johnson and Real, 2013)
Ensure continued funding and support for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, TsunamiReady and affiliated state and local programs.
Develop a coordinated and sufficiently robust policy framework for tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation planning for California coastal communities, ports and harbors.
Explore opportunities to advance multi-hazard mitigation planning along California’s coast and bays to more holistically address issues of future tsunami risk, sea level rise and future coastal flooding and erosion, and earthquake-induced liquefaction.
Encourage responders and government managers at all levels to conduct self-assessments, devise table-top exercises, and more carefully consider how the short-fuse intensity and wide geographic scale of tsunami scenarios could challenge current assumptions.
Work to address recovery challenges likely for the most vulnerable coastal communities, ports and harbors, as well portions of the state’s fishing and agriculture sectors.
Transferability of Ideas/Policies
Hazard Assessment
Preparedness
Mitigation
Response
RecoveryIs commitment to pre-disaster planning for
post-event recovery in California and U.S.
adequate?
Dis
aste
r C
ycle
Reconstruction Design Council in Response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, June 2011
Sendai Plain
Santa Cruz