Disaster Risk Reduction challenges in the Pacific: An Australian perspective

Dr Andy BarnicoatChief, Community Safety & Earth Monitoring Division, Geoscience Australia

Outline

Overview of Geoscience Australia

Pacific sea level monitoring

Groundwater in Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment of Pacific region

Global Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Shallow water from space

Volcanic monitoring (InSAR) in PNG

Indonesia InaSafe

Geoscience Australia• Federal government agency

• Located in Canberra

• 600 staff

• Budget 2015–16: $170m

Pacific Sea Level Monitoring ProjectProviding a link between land deformation and tide gauge data

GNSS Time SeriesPermanent GNSS station records a continuous time series

• 10+ years at most PSLMP sites

• Seismic events can be detected and modelled over time

• Seismic uplift can be modelled out of Tide Gauge observations, and validated by the local monitoring survey.

97% of islands assessed have Moderate to Higher vulnerability

Vulnerability to future low rainfall periods 2050 ( 2035-2064)

Pacific Island Groundwater & Future Climates

80% of islands assessed have Moderate to Moderate high vulnerability

Vulnerability to future sea-level rise 2050 (2035-2 064)

Pacific Island Groundwater & Future Climates

Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment of Pacific region

Assess changes in tropical cyclone risk between current and future climate for building, infrastructure and agricultural assets across the Pacific region

Assess changes in tropical cyclone risk between current and future climate for building, infrastructure and agricultural assets across the Pacific region

Current climate average annual losses across the Pacific

Changes in average annual loss by country

Global Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

• Part of the UNISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR)

• Collaboration between GA & NGI (Norway)

• Contributions from several organizations (URS, INGV, USGS, IPMA)

Shallow Water Bathymetry from Space

• Physics-based inversion of optical remote sensing data

• Cost effective for remote regions and to “fill the gap” between traditional deep water survey methods

Cocos (Keeling) IslandATWS

Ghizo Island, SolomonsAusAID

Lord Howe IslandMarine Biodiversity Hub

• Radar interferometry (InSAR) has been used to measure changes in surface height and model volcanic magma chamber fluxes. This example is from Rabaul Caldera

• This remote sensing method can be applied to other hazards (e.g. seismic, landslide) and over large areas.

Monitoring natural hazards in PNG

Deeper signal from sub-harbour magma chamber

Shallow signal from dyking radial to volcanic vent

InaSAFE is free software that produces realistic natural hazard impact scenarios for better planning, preparedness and response activities.

Hazard: Maumere Tsunami Inundation Model – DMInnovation (25m)

Exposure: Population Model – WorldPop (100m) | Buildings - OSM

InaSAFE – Maumere Tsunami

InaSAFE – Jakarta Flood

Hazard: Jakarta Flood January 2013 – BPBD DKI Jakarta

Exposure: Buildings - OSM

Andy Barnicoat Phone: +61 2 6249 9111 Email: feedback@ga.gov.au

Web: www.ga.gov.au Postal Address: GPO Box 378, Canberra ACT 2601

Thank you