Building foresight capabilities in agricultural scientific institutions of the

Southern Cone: Lessons from a learning-by-doing experience

CONSTRUCTING SOCIAL FUTURES – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power

Session V. 2. Citizen science, power, responsibility and foresight

Diego Gauna, INTA Argentina (gauna.diego@inta.gob.ar)

Sebastián Oviedo, INIA Uruguay (soviedo@inia.org.uy)

13 June, 2019

Turku, Finland

Cooperative Program for Technological Developmentin Agrifood and Agroindustry in the Southern Cone

Created in 1980 as an institutional instrument for the integration and articulation of the National Agricultural Research Institutions (NARI) of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay and IICA (Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture)

Staff

ResearchersPhD Researchers

Centers of research, development and technology transfer

Germplasm banks

Facilities

Cooperative Program for Technological Developmentin Agrifood and Agroindustry in the Southern Cone

Average last three years

NARI Budget (thousands of USD)

2017

International linkages

International agreements

Number ofCountries

Laboratories abroad

Number of research projects

Cooperative Program for Technological Developmentin Agrifood and Agroindustry in the Southern Cone

PROCISUR MTP 2019 – 2022: Strategic Orientations

Strategic Pillars

StrategicLines

Wine11,5%

Corn35,73%

Soy oil67,55%

Cotton 13,55%

Rice5,18%

Sugar37,98%

Coffee26,11%

Beef33,6%

Cherries41,4%

Lemon & Lime

12,96%

Pears23,43%

Peaches13,6%

Apples14,79%

Wheat8,2%

Nuts15,71%

Blueberries35,10%

Grapes24,32%

Chicken41,0%

Peanuts20,2%

Sorghum8,8%

Soybeanmeal

74,5%

Soy bean58%

Milkpowder

4,8%

The Southern Cone as Food World Reserve

Orange juice

77,6%

Southern Cone can

feed 2,025 million

people per year,

27 % of world

pop.

Southern Cone has

1/3 of total fresh

water reserves.

Southern Cone is a

global biodiverse

region.

Key Technologies:

New breeding techniques

Cellular agriculture

Artificial intelligence

Robotics

Digital Agriculture

Blockchain

The Southern Cone in a new era of technological convergence

Agricultural productivity is increasing at decreasing rate but a new

industrial revolution (4.0), based on the disciplinary convergence, is arising.

Main Objectives

• Develop the competences and skills to incorporate thefuture’s approach in the National Institutes of TechnologicalAgriculture in the Southern Cone.

• Raise decision makers’ and stakeholders’ awareness of theforesight methodology and policy implications.

• Build a network of futurists in our institutions.

• Provide inputs for the new Strategic Plan 2019-2022 ofPROCISUR.

Regional foresight study of the R&D&I of the Agricultural,Agrifood and Agribusiness

Methodological approach

• International seminar with worldexperts

• Identification ofDrivers

• Importance/Uncer-tainty Matrix

1st Workshop Brasilia

• Megatrends, trends and CU

• Morpho analysis

• Scenarios

• Evaluationindicators

• Risk and Opportunities

2nd Workshop Buenos Aires

• Priorization ofProblems / opportunities

• PoliciesRecommendations

Stakeholders

Workshop

Drivers’ Justification

Driver’s Hyphotesis

Preliminary document

Internal validation

+50 prof.

Results (1): Megatrends

• Demographic changes

• Emerging asian countries closing the gap

• Internationalization of Southern Cone’s agri-food value chains

• Citizen empowerment and new consumer preferences

• Automatization and digital agriculture

• Bioconvergence

• Open Science and Innovation, Collaborative Research.

• Climate change and sustainability as agenda setters.

Results (2): Critical Uncertainties

• Patterns of growth of the global economy

• Biotechnological platform

• Law and regulations for innovation

• Science-Production Relationship

• Africa as a new world food reserve

• Technological innovations for climate change

• Standards and barriers to access to markets

Results (3): Four Workshop Scenarios

Each scenario has its own image and narrative and the were build during the workshop, using biotechnology development as an starting point.

Bioparadise Biosouth

Biocrash TransINIA

Evaluating scenarios-an exampleDimensión crítica Escenario “Transinia”

Seguridad Alimentaria

Aumento de la oferta de alimentos impulsados por la biotecnología. Se desarrollan alimentos con alto contenido nutricional. Acceso a alimentos a

nivel local puede verse comprometido, dado que la mayoría de las inversiones están destinadas principalmente hacia cultivos industriales

Debido al aumento de normativas cada vez más exigentes tanto en seguridad alimentaria, como en inocuidad, las agroindustrias que se

desarrollen en la región deberán apuntar al desarrollo de alimentos que cumplan con estos estándares, aumentando por ejemplo la oferta de

alimentos funcionales. Estas mismas exigencias podrían a su vez actuar como barreras para otro tipo de alimentos, como la carne sintética, por lo

que sería necesario un análisis previo para ver que tipo de biotecnologías se podrían impulsar en la región.

Diversificación productiva Limitada, en función de que las agendas internacionales de I+D centran sus investigaciones en pocos cultivos con mayor potencial de mercado.

Agregado de ValorSe estimula el agregado de valor empujado por la bioindustria. La biotecnología se convierte en la tecnología crítica para impulsar el desarrollo

agroindustrial regional.

Desarrollo territorial

Se puede generar una mayor inequidad en la distribución territorial de la actividad, siendo favorecidos aquellos territorios con mayor potencial

para la producción competitiva de biomasa. Así como también, se produciría una mayor inversión en aquellos territorios donde se instalen las

Agroindustrias o empresas Transnacionales, en desmedro de aquellos lugares donde estén. Esto tiene sus pros y contras, ya que por un lado se ha

demostrado que la instalación de una empresa, por ejemplo, una planta procesadora en una región, genera empleos, pero también se genera una

mayor contaminación, si es que no se han tomado las medidas de mitigación necesarias. Esto, a su vez, podría generar mayor movimiento

migratorio debido a la oferta de empleos que en estos lugares se generarán.

Sostenibilidad ambiental

La biotecnología puede ayudar a mitigar los efectos del CC y a generar mayor eficiencia en el uso de los insumos. Al mismo tiempo, zonas

potencialmente frágiles ambientalmente se vuelven aptas para la producción agropecuaria, con efectos inciertos sobre la sostenibilidad ambiental.

Existe un gran riesgo de que se generen posibles daños al medio ambiente, ya que muchas veces en la operación e Investigación liderada por

grandes empresas transnacionales priman intereses económicos por sobre la sostenibilidad ambiental.

Competitividad de las

Cadenas de Valor

Los sectores integrados a las cadenas globales de valor incrementan su competitividad vía mayor incorporación de tecnología, siendo estas

dominadas por las transnacionales quienes logran una gran integración vertical. Cadenas de valor menos integradas en el mercado global se

retraen por falta de inversiones, sin embargo, existe un cierto porcentaje de pequeños actores que logran adaptar la tecnología desarrollada por

las grandes empresas.

Evolución de la AFPerspectivas desfavorables si la biotecnología desarrollada no es empujada por Pymes regionales/locales.

Results (4)- Stakeholders Workshop

• Presentation and validation of the results: new insights about megatrends and CU.

• Identification of the main problems and opportunities in the Southern Cone Agri-food sector.

• Classification in terms of their regional importance and INIAs incumbency.

• Recommendations for lines of action and policies for regional cooperation.

Results (5)- Final Publication

• Synthesis Report

• Policy-Oriented

• It will be published soon in English (just send us an e-mail and we will happy to share with you. Any comments are welcome!)

Some Lessons Learned

• Learning-by-doing was an adequate strategy for people with no-background in the topics. It increases involvement and motivation for participants.

• Regional studies have as an additional complexity the different realities and mindsets of the participants. It needs time to have a common starting point.

• Working with scientists raise an additional issue: the perceived lack of scientific foundations of foresight. There is a lot of skepticism about its usefulness.

• The fact there is no “one size fits all” approach confuseparticipants.

Some Lessons Learned

• Foresight studies are difficult to “sell” to bureaucrats and policy makers, specially when they are policy-related (looks as an contradiction but it is not). Cultural resistance is important and political cycles have an strong influence in our region.

• Environmental and social issues are not as popular as productive and political ones in the agrifood sector. This issue has consequences about designing future studies.

• The link between foresight and decision making is still very weak. My boss used to tell me: what can I do with all this scenarios?? What if they are used to weaken my position? Which one should I choose? Which one is the more likely?

THANKS!!

Biotech Platform B

iote

ch P

latf

orm

Consolidated by Joint Ventures and International Investment

Consolidated by Public R&D Investment (Big Jump in national investments)

Fragmented with slow dynamism

Disruptions changes the nature of the biotech platform