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Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant Andy Bryant National Weather Service National Weather Service Portland, OR Portland, OR Willamette Falls at Oregon City, December 1964 Old Oregon Trail Hwy near Meacham, 1923 photo courtesy ODOT Portland Snow, 1917 City of Portland Archives October 1962 OregonLive.com Johnson Creek, 1961

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Page 1: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Andy BryantAndy BryantNational Weather ServiceNational Weather ServicePortland, ORPortland, OR

Willamette Falls at Oregon City, December 1964

Old Oregon Trail Hwy near Meacham, 1923

photo courtesy ODOT

Portland Snow, 1917

City of Portland Archives

October 1962

OregonLive.com

Johnson Creek, 1961

Page 2: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 3: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

El NiñoEl Niño

La La NiñaNiña

NeutraNeutrall

NINO 3.4 SST AnomalyNINO 3.4 SST Anomaly

Map showing NINO regions in Equatorial Map showing NINO regions in Equatorial PacificPacific

Page 4: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Climate Prediction Center / International Climate Prediction Center / International Research Institute for Climate and Society Research Institute for Climate and Society

Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Consensus Probabilistic ENSO ForecastForecast

Page 5: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

TemperatureTemperature PrecipitationPrecipitation

www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

Page 6: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

TemperatureTemperature PrecipitationPrecipitation

www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

Page 7: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

TemperatureTemperature PrecipitationPrecipitation

www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

Page 8: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 9: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 10: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 11: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 12: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Top 10 snowiest winters:

34.0” 1968-69 El Niño24.2” 2008-09 ENSO Neutral22.4” 1955-56 La Niña20.3” 1959-60 ENSO Neutral17.4” 1992-93 ENSO Neutral16.3” 1979-80 ENSO Neutral14.7” 1970-71 La Niña13.4” 1964-65 ENSO Neutral12.3” 2003-04 ENSO Neutral12.0” 1994-95 El Niño10.5” 1953-54 ENSO Neutral

60% were ENSO Neutral20% were La Niña 20% were El Niño

1950-2011 1950-2011 datadata

Page 13: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

18 snow-shutout winters:(Trace or 0 snowfall)

8 were El Niño winters7 were ENSO Neutral winters

3 were La Niña winter

Page 14: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Page 15: Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Events

Thank You!Thank You!