brief analysis of variable renewable energy contribution during … · 2019-04-24 · 1 brief...

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Brief analysis of variable renewable energy contribution during loadshedding (Q1-2019)CSIR Energy Centre

CSIR Energy CentrePretoria. 15 April 2019v1.1

JARRAD [email protected]

JOANNE [email protected]

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Key takeaways

A constrained power system meant South Africa had to loadshed again in Q1-2019

• The RSA power system again became constrained in Q1-2019 with Eskom needing to loadshed (Stage 4 at times)

• Causes of loadshedding have been cited as high unplanned plant failures on the thermal coal fleet, the loss ofCahora Bassa import from Mozambique followed by intensive use of diesel (at OCGTs) and water (at pumpedstorage schemes) which eventually depleted1

• This has been the most intensive loadshedding experienced in RSA with 595 GWh of load shed just in March 2019of the total 769 GWh in Q1-2019 (there was 1325 GWh of loadshedding throughout 2015)

The utility-scale VRE fleet notably contributed to limit the extent of loadshedding in Q1-2019

• The utility-scale VRE fleet2 contributed 2 975 GWh (5.3%) to the RSA power system in Q1-2019 with monthlycontributions ranging from 4.9-6.0%, weekly contributions from 4.1-7.0% and daily contributions from 2.9-7.7%

• During loadshedding periods, the utility-scale VRE fleet contributed 357 GWh of the total 2975 GWh from VREduring Q1-2019 i.e. loadshedding could have increased from 769 GWh to 1126 GWh (a 46% increase)

• Instantaneous contributions from the VRE fleet during loadshedding periods was up to 2.3 GW i.e. without the VREfleet, loadshedding stage 5 & 6 could have been envoked

1 Department of Public Enterprises, UPDATE : ESKOM ELECTRICITY SUPPLY, 03 April 2019; 2 1.5 GW solar PV, 2.0 GW wind and 0.5 GW CSP (CSP is marginally dispatchable considering coupling with thermal storage)

RSA = Republic of South Africa; VRE = variable renewable energy

3

100

600

200

300

400

250

0

450

50

550

150

350

500

Apr-18

21

6

6

Jul-18

39

GWh of load shedding

306

164122

5

42

Jan-15

Feb-19

200

Nov-15

71

Feb-15

36

36

Mar-15

60

Nov-18

122

156

77

Aug-15

56

May-15

Jul-15

40

260

Jun-15

84

19

Oct-15

Dec-15

Jan-18

Aug-18

384

Feb-18

Mar-18

May-18

Sep-18

15

Oct-18

24

Jun-18

106

32

Dec-18

Jan-19

36

54

190

Sep-15

Mar-19

63

283

Apr-15

233

178

49

3

43

138

174

595

184

27

12

63

Stage 4 Stage 1Stage 3 Stage 2

First 3 months of 2019 – most intensive loadshedding in March with 595 GWh of 769 GWh in 2019... 1325 GWh throughout 2015

Year

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Energy (GWh)

1325

-

-

192

769

Duration (hours)

858

-

-

127

272

Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally

change/end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis

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Loadshedding in 2015 predominantly during high demand periods (day and evening peaks)… most recently in 2019 this has been day/night

Hour of the day -->

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total

Jan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Feb 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 10 10 10 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 0 0 174

Mar 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 19 30 31 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 29 13 595

No load shedding

No load shedding

2015

2016

2017

2019

2018

Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally

change/end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis

No Loadshedding

Intensive loadshedding

Loadshedding intensity (per year)

5

450100

100

BW 2 BW 4BW 1 BW 3

100

BW 3.5 BW 4Expedited

15050

200200 450

649 559

676 650

686

BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5BW 1 BW 4 BW 4Expedited

787

1 362

650

415591

398

BW 3.5BW 3BW 1 BW 2 BW 4 BW 4Expedited

627417 435

813591

Supply Sources

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Wind excludes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). BW = Bid Window. PPA = Power Purchase Agreement. BW 4 includes BW 4 additional.Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

Procured and operational capacity under RSA’s RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) with only 100 MW of CSP added in Q1-2019

2078 MW 1479 MW

Capacity operational(1 January 2019)

400 MW 2078 MW 1479 MW 500 MW

435

415

398

BW 4BW 3BW 2BW 1 BW 3.5 BW 4Expedited

627417

813591

649 559787

676 650

686

BW 4Expedited

BW 2BW 1 BW 3 BW 3.5

650

1 362

BW 4

200450

100

100

BW 2

50

BW 4BW 1 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4Expedited

150 200200 450

Capacity operational(31 March 2019)

Solar PV procured,PPAs not signed yet

Solar PV procured,PPAs signed

Solar PV operational

Wind procured,PPAs not signed yet

Wind operational

Wind procured,PPAs signed

CSP procured,PPAs not signed yet

CSP procured,PPAs signed

CSP operational

6

257560

1 075

300 400 500210

960

965

1 460

2 078 2 078 2 078

1 479

1 479 1 479 1 479

467

2018

3 857

2013 2015

3 139

2014 2016

200

2020

2 040

2017

3 957 4 057

2019(Q1)

1 520

+1 053

+520

+1 094

+718 +100 +100

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

From 1 November 2013 to 31 March 2019, 2 078 MW of wind, 1 479 MW of large-scale solar PV and 500 MW of CSP became operational in RSA

Capacity operational [MW]

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Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). CSP energy measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation

Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

In Q1-2019 - 3.0 TWh of wind, solar PV and CSP energy was produced in RSA with estimates of over 12 TWh for 2019 expected

Supply Sources

Annual energy produced [TWh] 12.4

4.7

5.0

0.05

2013

6.5

1.1

2014

1.1

2.2

1.62.5

2015

2.6

3.7

0.01

9.0

2.2

0.5

2016

3.3

0.7

2017

3.3

6.9

1.0

9.4

2018

0.9

0.4

2019 2020

0.1

10.8

Wind

Estimate for rest of 2019

Solar PV

CSP

8

176 121 137

649

485 503

337

273294

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

Monthly electricity production in GWh

1 161

880933

5.0%

6.0%

4.9%

Monthly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet ranging from 4.9-6.0% (similar to previous year)

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Supply Sources

Note: Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. CSP energy only measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned.Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation.

Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Capacity operational

(1 Jan-31 Mar)

2078 MW

1479 MW

500 MW

% of totalsystem load

9

Monthly electricity production from wind, solar PV, CSP, residual loadand loadshedding impact in Q1-2019

0

18

2

10

20

4

6

8

12

14

16

22

19.3

Monthly electricity production in TWh

18.216.8

18.2

17.9

19.8

Loadshedding

Solar PV

ResidualLoad

CSP

Wind

Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources



(1 Jan-31 Mar)

2078 MW

1479 MW

500 MW

10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

13 4037 4322

Electricity productionin GWh/week

1 4 7 10 16 19 25 28 31 34 46 49 52

5.9%

5.7%

6.9%

6.1%

4.5%

5.6%

4.5%

5.2%4.9%

5.8%

4.8%

4.1%

Weekly contribution from utility-scale RE in first 3 months of 2019 ranges from 4.1-6.9% of total system demand

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

% of totalsystem load

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Supply Sources

2078 MW

1479 MW

Capacityoperational

500 MW

11

Weekly electricity production wind, solar PV, CSP, residual load and loadshedding in Q1-2019

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

1 40

Electricity production in GWh/week

4 7 10 13 16 19 433122 25 5228 34 37 46 49

Supply Sources

Note: Week 1 only 6 of 7 days; Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Loadshedding

Wind

CSP

Solar PV

ResidualLoad

2078 MW

1479 MW

Capacityoperational

500 MW

12

For Jan-Mar 2019, electricity production from wind, solar PV and CSP was above 25 GWh/d 90% of the time with maximum of 48 GWh/d

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Electricity productionin GWh/day

Supply Sources


Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

400 MW

13

Daily electricity production of between 543-666 GWh in Jan 2019 with VRE contributing 5-8%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

21

GWh/day

73 171541 2 285 6 261311 149 16 18 198 292010 22 2423 25 30 312712

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

ResidualLoad

Loadshedding

Supply Sources

2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production excludes pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

400 MW

14

Daily electricity production of between 593-672 GWh/d in Feb 2019, VRE supplied 3-6% of system demand and up to 7% of load was shed

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2 30

GWh/day

24 2815131 3 4 6 297 8 9 10 2011 1812 1714 16 19 21 22 23 25 26 27 315

ResidualLoad

Loadshedding

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Supply Sources


(end of month)


2078 MW

1479 MW

500 MW

15

Daily electricity production of 538-658 GWh/d in Mar 2019, VRE contributed 3-7% everyday and up to 14% of load was shed

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

28 3127

GWh/day

21 4 6 239 10 3012 1513 14 16 18 20 21 22 2924 25 26753 8 17 1911

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Loadshedding

ResidualLoad

Supply Sources


(end of month)


2078 MW

1479 MW

500 MW

16

0.0

2.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

GW

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Hourly VRE production in Jan 2019 shows periodic solar PV and CSP; wind varies but contributes notably during evening peaks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SupplySources

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

400 MW

17

2.0

4.0

0.0

1.0

2.5

0.5

1.5

3.0

3.5

GW

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Hourly VRE electricity production in Feb 2019 shows how loadsheddingcould have increased to Stage 5-6 without VRE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SupplySources


2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

3 124

Loadshedding stage

18

0.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

GW

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Hourly VRE electricity production in Mar 2019 shows again how loadshedding could have increased to Stage 5-6 without VRE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SupplySources


2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

4 3 2 1

Loadshedding stage

19

0

5

15

20

10

25

30

35

40

GW

SupplySources

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Hourly electricity production in Jan 2019 highlighting role of VRE fleet


2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

400 MW

ResidualLoad

Loadshedding

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

20

0

5

30

15

10

20

25

35

40

GW

Loadshedding

ResidualLoad

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Hourly electricity production in Feb 2019 with 5 days of loadshedding

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SupplySources


2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

5 days of loadshedding

21

15

0

5

10

20

40

25

30

35

GW

Loadshedding

Wind

CSP

Solar PV

ResidualLoad

Hourly electricity production in Mar 2019 with 10 days of loadshedding

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SupplySources


2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

10 days of loadshedding

22

0

20

30

2

14

16

4

6

28

8

12

26

22

24

32

34

18

36

10

Power in GW

Loadshedding

Wind

PV

CSP

Residual (Eskom)


Significant contribution from VRE during loadshedding in Feb 2019 –103 GWh and a maximum inst. contribution of 2.0 GW

2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

System demand

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Week of 11-17 February 2019

Supply Sources

23

10

14

18

22

26

34

0

28

20

32

30

36

16

2

4

6

8

12

24

Power in GW

Loadshedding

PV

Residual (Eskom)

Wind

CSP

Supply Sources


Similarly, VRE provided valuable capacity during loadshedding in March 2019 – 254 GWh and a maximum inst. contribution of 2.3 GW

System demand

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Week of 18-24 March 2019

2078 MW

1479 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

24

LDC = Load Duration Curve; 1 When demand is >90% of peak demand; VRE = variable renewable energy (solar PV, wind and CSP)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

10

0

2

18

16

22

20

34

14

12

26

8

38

6

30

4

32

24

28

36

40

Hours of the year (sorted)

Power in GW

-1.1 GW

System demand (before loadshedding)

Residual demand (after VRE & loadshedding)

System demand (after loadshedding)

VRE reduced peak by 1.1 GW & high demand hours notably; loadshedding could have increased by as much as 46% without VRE

LDC (1 Jan – 31 Mar 2019)

With VRE fleet, peak demand wasreduced by 1.1 GW.

1But more importantly, high demandhours1 were reduced from 730 hrs to144 hrs.

2

2

1

2

357 GWh of 2975 GWh from VRE was during loadshedding between Jan-Mar 2019.

Without VRE, loadshedding would have been more severe, it could have increased by 46% from769 GWh to 1126 GWh.

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Thank you

brief analysis of variable renewable energy contribution during … · 2019-04-24 · 1 brief...

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