bp – fall 2003
TRANSCRIPT
Kevin BassTrading ManagerBP Energy, NA Gas & Power
Physical Gas Trading
Agenda
• Natural Gas as Commodity – Characteristics
– Demand, Supply, and Transportation
• Natural Gas Market – Market Players
– Market Dynamics
• Natural Gas Pricing– Pricing (Monthly Index, NYMEX, Daily)
– Financial (support physical)• Swaps• Spreads
Natural Gas Characteristics
• It reduces America’s dependence on oil.
• Natural gas is the cleanest and most efficient fossil fuel.
• Natural gas is safe and reliable.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Bcf/
d
• Demand is expected to continue to grow in all sectors, led by power generation
Natural Gas Demand Profile
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015
Gas
co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
bcf
/d)
Residential Commercial Industrial Electric Generation Other
64.6
Source: EIA, AEO 2003
67.6 74.381.1
U.S. Demand Outlook
Seasonality of Natural Gas Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Billio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
Per
Day
Consumption
Net Imports
Domestic Production
Natural Gas Storage
• Injection – April thru October
• Withdrawals – November thru March
• Market area storage owned primarily by end use customers, and regulated by interstate pipeline tariffs.
• Production area storage, usually salt dome caverns, used for trading / market arbitrage.
US Natural gas Supply and Demand
40
50
60
70
80
90
BC
F/D
Consum ption
Production + Imports
Storage Withdrawals
Storage Injections Storage Injections
Storage Withdrawals
Storage Fields for Peak Demand
3,080
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1 Jan
1 F
eb
1 M
ar
1 A
pr
1 M
ay
1 Ju
n
1 Ju
l
1 A
ug
1 S
ep
1 O
ct
1 N
ov
1 D
ec
Current Storage Level (2,944 Bcf)
2001
2002 2000
2003
Production Basin
Pipeline Capacity
Producing Basins & Regional Gas Flow
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
tcf/
yr
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
bcf/
d
Demand ~2% pa
Growth• Existing basins, i.e. Rockies and San Juan• Deepwater
Existing well supply
Growth• Alaska/Frontier• LNG • Unconventional
N.A. Supply Demand Outlook
Alaska/ MacKenzie
Decline or Sustain
Traditional Growth
Non-Traditional Growth
Western Canada
Eastern
Canada
Rockies
HeartlandSan Juan
Atlantic LNG
Western LNG Gulf Coast
Deepwater Gulf
North America Supply Profile
Hurricane Risk
Trinidad
Canada
Wyoming
San Juan
Deep Water GOM
Alaska
Permian Gulf Coast Louisiana
Mid-Continent
Gulf Coast South Texas
Mackenzie Delta
BP is the largest gas producer and reserves holder in North America
East Coast
Current production
Exploration interest
BP North America Supply Position
12/04/23 15
LNG
DW GOM
Alaska/Beaufort
bp – part of the solution
Onshore
Supply Solutions
E. Canada
West LNG
U.S. LNG Re-Gasification Terminals
LocationSendout Capacity
(Bcf/d)
After Expansion
(Bcf/d)Year
2001 Storage
(Bcf)
Everett, MA0.55 0.92 2005 3.5
Cove Point, MD* 0.75 1.00 2005 5.0
Elba Island, GA 0.45 0.86 2005 4.0
Lake Charles, LA 0.63 1.20 2005 6.3
Total 2.4 4.0 18.8
* Re-activated August 2003 Source: EIA
Current LNG deliveries estimated between 1.4 – 1.6 Bcfd
Getting Gas Safely To You
Producing Wells Compressor Station
Processing Plant
Compressor Stations
Supplemental Fuels (LNG)
Industrial Users
& Power Plants
Commercial Users
Residential Users
Underground Storage
Interstate Transmission Lines Approximately 280,000 Miles in U.S.
Distribution Mains (Lines) Approx. One Millions Miles in U.S.
Source: EIA
N.G. Pipelines & Key Trading Points
Natural Gas Market
U.S. Natural Gas Markets
Pre 1978 - Value Chain Regulation
* * *
* Regulated Pricing
Producers Pipelines Local Distribution Companies
End Users
U.S. Natural Gas Markets
Pipelines
Marketers
Current - Transportation, distribution and storage services unbundled. Emergence of wholesale marketers
**
*
*Producers Industrials
LDCs
ElectricUtilities
Generators
End Users
* Regulated Pricing
3,997
3,399
2,7482,545
2,289
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2002 Production, Source: Company Financial Reports
MMcfd
CanadaUS
Note: Devon volumes do not include Ocean Energy
Top North America Gas Producers
Source: Gas Daily, S&P ratings as of June 18, 2003
Top North America Gas Marketers
B+
BBB+
BBB
B-
BBB+
A-
BBB+
A-
B
AA+
S&P Rating
2.83.5Oneok9
10.54.0Reliant7
4.68.8ConocoPhillips5
9.59.5Sempra4
5.43.5Williams10
2.23.5Nexen8
3.84.2Cinergy6
9.29.9Coral3
21.412.6Mirant2
14.920.1BP1
1Q021Q03CompanyRank
B+
BBB+
BBB
B-
BBB+
A-
BBB+
A-
B
AA+
S&P Rating
2.83.5Oneok9
10.54.0Reliant7
4.68.8ConocoPhillips5
9.59.5Sempra4
5.43.5Williams10
2.23.5Nexen8
3.84.2Cinergy6
9.29.9Coral3
21.412.6Mirant2
14.920.1BP1
1Q021Q03CompanyRank
PGE
New Energy
Noram
SCE
Sithe
Com EnergyPhillips JV
UPRPG&E
Pan- Energy
Mobil
TridentChevron
Destec
Illinova
PacifiCorp
Tenneco
DeepTech
Sonat
Coastal
PG&E
Calpine
SkyGen
Panda
CGCAVintage
Sheridan
Integrated
Energy Traders
Higher Prices
Supply Growth
Increased Drilling Decreased Demand
Lower Prices
Decreased Drilling Increased Demand
Supply Declines
Market Dynamics
The Energy Merchant Sector – Then
• The space vacated by the energy merchants will be filled
• LDC’s have been there, done that
AAA
BBB
Junk
Physical Financial
BanksProducers
LDC’S
IND’s
Energy Merchants
You cannot play the game from
this space
Fin
an
cia
l S
tre
ng
th
Business Emphasis
BP
The Energy Merchant Sector – Now
AAA
BBB
Junk
Physical Financial
BanksProducers
BP
You cannot play the game from
this space
Business Emphasis
Fin
an
cia
l Str
en
gth
New Entrants?
• It will take time to fill energy merchant gap
• Producers will start to fill, but have capability gap
• Banks moving here, but have infrastructure gap
LDC’S
Producers BanksDuke
Mirant
Reliant
Enron
Dynegy
WilliamsEl Paso
Reliant
DynegyMirantWilliams
Enron
El Paso
Duke
IND’s
Natural Gas Pricing
Regional Prices
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Alberta Rockies
Henry Hub California
Chicago New YorkAlberta
Rockies
California Chicago
Henry Hub
*
*
**
*
*
New York
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Ja
n-9
9
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
y-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Au
g-9
9
Oc
t-9
9
De
c-9
9
Fe
b-0
0
Ap
r-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Au
g-0
0
Oc
t-0
0
De
c-0
0
Fe
b-0
1
Ap
r-0
1
Ju
n-0
1
Au
g-0
1
Oc
t-0
1
De
c-0
1
Fe
b-0
2
Ap
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Au
g-0
2
Oc
t-0
2
De
c-0
2
Fe
b-0
3
Ap
r-0
3
Ju
n-0
3
Au
g-0
3
Oc
t-0
3
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices [$/MMBtu]
A Wild Ride
An Even Wilder Ride in the Northeast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
-00
Feb
-00
Mar
-00
Ap
r-00
May
-00
Jun
-00
Jul-0
0A
ug
-00
Sep
-00
Oct
-00
No
v-00
Dec
-00
Jan
-01
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
Ap
r-01
May
-01
Jun
-01
Jul-0
1A
ug
-01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
No
v-01
Dec
-01
Jan
-02
Feb
-02
Mar
-02
Ap
r-02
May
-02
Jun
-02
Jul-0
2A
ug
-02
Sep
-02
Oct
-02
No
v-02
Dec
-02
Jan
-03
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
May
-03
Jun
-03
Jul-0
3A
ug
-03
Sep
-03
Oct
-03
Henry Hub
TETCO M3
$/MMBtu
Cold winter, declining storage levels, falling production, and high oil prices increasing both volatility and price.
Natural Gas Pricing
• Bidweek Cycle
• Gas Commodity Pricing– First-of-Month Index
– NYMEX Final Settlement / Basis trades
– Fixed Price Deals and Hedging
– Gas Daily prices
• Financial Instruments Supporting Physical– Index Swaps (premiums/discounts)
– Fixed for Float Swaps
– Basis Swaps
– Swing Swaps
Options
Settlement
Futures
SettlementFOM Nov Cash Trading
S M T W Th F S
Oct 27 28 29 30 31 Nov 1
First of the Month Index
• Most common pricing used by end user and producer
– used as benchmark by some customers
• Market price
• Premium / Discount associated with Index
– dependent on monthly market conditions
• Average of physical deals transacted during last three business days prior
to month of sale
• Inside FERC most commonly used
– prices sent in by different market sectors for publishing
• NYMEX Final Settlement – 3rd Business day prior to month end
• Basis quotes from brokers, marketing companies, and electronic
trading systems. Primarily at liquid points.
• Increased volatility in market area basis vs. supply basins, primarily
due to transportation economics and demand profile
• Basis swaps used to convert to FOM Index
Pricing Based on Final Settlement
Customer
(physical gas)BP
Bank/Broker (financial)
NYMEX +90¢
NYMEX +85¢
INDEX
Gas
• BP sold supply at NYMEX related pricing
• BP buys basis swap to convert to synthetic index
Basis
Swap
Converting NYMEX Priced N.G. to Index
Daily Pricing
• Daily volatility can be significant, especially in peak heating or cooling season (peaking power plants)
• Pricing only at liquid points or hubs
• Gas Daily publication most commonly used
• Gas Daily or Swing Swaps used to manage risk
Producer BP
Counterparty
FOM Index
DailyPrices
Gas
FOMIndex
• Producer wants Index for gas
• BP wants to pay daily price
• BP buys gas daily swap Gas Daily
Swap
•Converting FOM Index to Daily
Gas Daily Swap
BP
Counterparty
Customer
Daily Prices
Gas
DailyPrices $1.80
• Customer wants daily price
• BP wants fixed price
• BP sells swing swap
Swing
Swap
•Converting Daily Price from Customer to Fixed Price
Swing Swap
Calendar Spreads
• Buying and selling future calendar months
• Requires market view
• Historical analysis key indicator
• Fundamental analysis, i.e. weather forecast, storage balance, nuclear plant maintenance schedules, etc.
2.002.102.202.302.40
2.502.602.702.802.90
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
Contango
5.305.405.505.605.705.805.906.006.106.206.30
Backwardation
ContangoBackwardation
• Buy one locational basis, sell another
• Historical analysis required
• Fundamentals reviewed, I.e. supply / demand forecasts, pipeline constraints, storage balances, nuclear plant outages, capacity release in the market, etc.
Basis Spreads
Supplier
(physical gas)BP NYMEX
NYMEX -16¢
NYMEX
Gas
Gas
Daily
Customers
DailyGasPrice
Gas
Daily
Suppliers
DailyGasPrice
Gas Henry Hub
Tennessee
•BP buys NYMEX based gas at one location
•BP sells NYMEX based gas at another location
•BP takes long and short into daily market to capture spread
BP makes money when daily spreads are below 16¢
Basis Spread Example
Summary
• Market is responsive – understanding of fundamentals imperative for successful trading
• Timely Information = $$$$
• Financial instruments offer flexibility and risk management.
• Innovative product offerings for growing customer needs. Marketing companies must be engaged, open to new ideas, and have good credit.