bizspark masterclass april2009 apatsko
TRANSCRIPT
ОО стартапах и не толькостартапах и не только
Алексей ПацкоАпрель 2009
23 april 2009 1Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
Познакомимся?Познакомимся?
• 35 лет. Украинец. Живу во Франции.
• Образование:– 1995 КПИ, Инженер-Электроник
– 2003 INSEAD (Франция), MBA
• Опыт работы: – 1994-1998 Квазар-Микро.
– 1998-2001 SAP Украина. Sales manager
– 2001-2002 UMC. Project director.
– 2003-2008 IN-FUSIO. Biz Dev Director
• Собственные проекты:– MyVocal
– midletanywhere.com / anyhandset.com
23 april 2009 2Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
et et vousvous??
23 april 2009 3Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
High Risks High Risks –– High High ……............………………………………Ron Adner
FAILURE RATEFAILURE RATE
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ОО чем говоричем говорим сегодням сегодня
• История одного стартапа – от успеха до провала
• Что делает стартап успешным
• Что важнее всего
• Practical Matters:– Start-up 3.0 (реалии 2009)
– Personal trade-off
– Что строить
– Pitch
– Финансирование
– CAP Table, Returns Calculator
• Q&A
• Wrap-up
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История одного стартапаИстория одного стартапа (beg)(beg)
• 1998 – inception, early vision. Seed financing (F&F +
state financing/tax credit)
• 1999 – partnership with Schlumberger. First products
& revenue. A-round funding from VC (€ 0.8m)
• 2000 – launch across few carriers, announcement of
platform (ExEn), B-round funding (€ 13.3 m)
• 2001- launch of ExEn platform with first clients
(Orange, Vodafone DE). C-round funding (€ 2.8m)
• 2002 – launch in China, SFR, Italy, UK. Version 2 of the
platform(ExEn Color), first licensing and development
deals. 1.5 mln registered players, 8k new users daily,
~$3 mln rev. D-round (€ 6.5m)
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http://corporate.in-fusio.com/fond_information/press_info.php
5% mobile
penetration
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История одного стартапаИстория одного стартапа (cont)(cont)
• 2003 – launch in Spain, Netherlands. Embedded in
Bird (China), 5mln reg users, 10m games downloads,
platform of “Vodafone Live” in France, licensed LOTR,
Terminator-2, South Parc, Spyro, acquires US
publisher, $14.4 mln rev.
• 2004 – Licensing deal with Microsoft (AOE, ZooTycoon,
MidtMadness, etc.), opens US distribution, new
product announced (Gaming Extension for Java), E-
round funding (€ 22m), $20 m rev
• 2005 – acquisition of 2 games publishers (in Europe
and USA), distribution deals with all major operators,
ex-CEO Take2 Interactive joins the board….
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http://corporate.in-fusio.com/fond_information/press_info.php
10%
mobile
penetr.
История одного стартапаИстория одного стартапа (fin)(fin)
• 2005 (cont) – board turns down offer from the major
internet company, new generation of platform is sold
but not ready, CEO leaves, first round of restructuring
• 2006 – original business erodes, new business
(publishing) does not compensate the drop. New
technology underperform as market shifts. More
restructuring. Attempts of trade sale fail.
• 2007 – more restructuring, management leaves, fire
sale to a smaller company.
• 2008 – 2009 – administration.
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http://corporate.in-fusio.com/fond_information/press_info.php
25%
mobile
penetr.
Lifecycle Lifecycle бизнесабизнеса
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ЗадачаЗадача
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Самое сложноеСамое сложное
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Что делает стартап успешнымЧто делает стартап успешным??
• “Традиционные” факторы
– Market
– Team
– Product
• Focus on market & customers
• Hard work
• Luck
• Definition of Success (success is relevant!)
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Что важнее всего?Что важнее всего?
• Market?
• Team?
• Product?
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* When a great team meets a lousy market, market wins.
* When a lousy team meets a great market, market wins.
* When a great team meets a great market, something special happens.
- Andy Rachleff, Benchmark Capital
http://venturehacks.com/articles/customer-development-course
Dilbert Way to Plan a StartupDilbert Way to Plan a Startup
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http://venturehacks.com/articles/customer-development-course
VC Way to Plan StartupVC Way to Plan Startup
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http://venturehacks.com/articles/customer-development-course
Steve Blanc’s Way to Plan StartupSteve Blanc’s Way to Plan Startup
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Why startWhy start--ups failups fail
Over 90% of start-ups fail because
they did not find market and
customers.
– Steve Blank
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http://steveblank.com/
Product / Market FitProduct / Market Fit
• Startup should focus obsessively on getting to product/market fit.
• Do whatever is required to get to product/market fit. Including
changing out people, rewriting your product, moving into a
different market, telling customers no when you don't want to,
telling customers yes when you don't want to, raising […] highly
dilutive venture capital -- whatever is required.
• When you get right down to it, you can ignore almost everything
else.
• Marc Andresseen
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http://venturehacks.com/articles/customer-development-course
Steve Blank model of Steve Blank model of EntreprEntrepr..
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StartStart--up 3.0. up 3.0. РеалииРеалии 2009.2009.
Эволюция критериев VC
• 1990: Product, Client(s), Revenue
• 1998: Idea, Business plan
• 2003: Product, Team, Traction
• 2009: Products, Client(s), Revenue
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StartStart--up 3.0. Business modelsup 3.0. Business models
• Online– Advertising & sponsorship(Google, Craigslist)
– Freemium (Linkedin)
– Brockerage (Ebay)
• Software– SAAS (Salesforce.com)
– Open Source (MySQL)
• Other– Merchant (Amazon)
– Hardware (Apple)
– Infomediary (Doubleclick)
– Donations (Charity)
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Персональный Персональный tradetrade--offoff
– Постоянная неуверенность в
завтрашнем дне
– Ничего не случиться само по себе -
все зависит от вас.
– Привыкайте к слову «НЕТ»
– Найти единомышленников сложно,
еще сложнее удержать и
смотивировать.
– Высокая вероятность ошибки в
одном из ключевых факторов +
менющиеся внешние факторы
– Объем работы многократно больше
нормального
– Персональные риски – семья,
карьера, и т.п. ...
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Предварительные итогиПредварительные итоги
• Большинство стартапов заканчивают ничем(некоторый даже делая все правильно – см. слайды 6-9)
• Рецепта успеха не существует, только мнения.
• Традиционные бизнес-модели разрушаются, новые бизнес-модели не очевидны
• Ожидания инвесторов растут (циклично?)
• Персональные риски велики
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Что мотивируетЧто мотивирует
Opportunity (Option)
• Be in control of your destiny
• Build something
• Impact
• Work with great people
• $$$
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@0frank: Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life
like most people won’t so that you can spend the rest of your
life like most people can’t
....with probability like most people wont bet on
Что строить?Что строить?
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Service Product
Порог вхождения Low High
Потребность в капитале Low High
Time to market Short Long
Рынок Small / local Large /global
Фрагментация клиентов High Low
Margins Low High
Economies of Scale Low High
ПрезентацияПрезентация
"Summarize the company's
business on the back of a
business card."
— Sequoia Capital
23 april 2009 27Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
Что рассказыватьЧто рассказывать??
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Изменить мир Лучшая команда Экспоненц. рост
СтруктураСтруктура презентациипрезентации1. Vision:
What are you trying to do, and why are you doing it?
2. Market: What is the market you are addressing and the estimated value of this
market over the next 5 to 10 years?
3. Team:Who are the key people (Vision, Operations, Tech, Sales, Marketing), and
what are their specific qualifications in the target market?
4. Offering: What is your exact offering? If possible, present a three to five minute pre-
recorded video demonstration.
5. Roadmap: Where are you in your offering release cycle and with respect to gaining
traction?
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СтруктураСтруктура презентациипрезентации (cont)(cont)6. Deals:
What are your major partnerships, relationships, etc.?
7. Competition:who are your competitors and how will you compete? How are you different
from your main competitors? How will you protect your advantage?
8. Financials:What is your high-level projected P&L for the next two years plus the current
and previous year?
9. Capital:How much capital are you raising and what will it be used for? What are the
acqusition drivers in this industry going to look like say 3 years from now?
how do you fit into all of this?
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ФинансированиеФинансирование
• Действительно ли необходимо?
• В каком объеме?
• Чтобы сделать что ? (куда потратить)
• Имеете ли вы по крайней мере 2 из 3:
– Market
– Team
– Product (technology)
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Объем финансированияОбъем финансирования
• В идеале : сначала привлечь сколько нужно
для нахождения Product/Market Fit, потом
привлечь больше на бОльшем valuation
• В реальном мире : привлекайте сколько
можете пока есть возможность!
• Слишком много денег бывает. Вызывает
“cultural corrosion” – раздувание штатов,
лень, недостаточную исполнительскую
дисциплину, срыв сроков, и т.п.
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Источники финансированияИсточники финансирования
• Clients
• Friends & Family
• Angel Investors
• Venture Capital (VC)
• Corporate Investors (бОльшая компания)
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Clients (Bootstrap)Clients (Bootstrap)
• Идеальный инвестор – это клиент
– Подтверждение нужности вашего предложения
– Формирование требований, тестирование
– Помощь в продажах (references)
– Финансирование
• Фокус на бизнес, а не fundraising
• Многие успешные компаний на самом деле
bootstrapped
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AngelsAngels• Family investor
– is likely not really a classic Angel Investor at all but rather a supportive
family member that "knows you“
• Relationship investor
– probably one or more co-workers from a previous gig or business friends
you have known for a while. May or may not understand what your
company is doing but have had a track record working with you.
• Idea Investor
– Probably very familiar with the space your company is targeting. Best
types of Angels - they validate your idea.
• Just Money Investor
– Connected through a personal or professional relationship with either the
Relationship Investor or the Idea Investor. Likely don't know you, likely
don't have a clue if your idea is good or bad but they have translated the
trust in the investment to the person they know. 23 april 2009 35Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
VCVC
• $500m+ valuation on exit
• $2m+ investment round
• Market – sizable market, plan to reach $100m
in revenue within 4-5 years
• Team with track records or seasoned
executives from “trendy” companies
• Technology
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Математика Математика Venture CapitalVenture Capital
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Corporate / strategicCorporate / strategic
• Самый редкий вид финансирования
• Обычно не делают Seed financing, инвестируют
на более позднем этапе (growth capital)
• Часто готовы инвестировать на очень хороших
условиях
• Лучше использовать как клиентов
• МИНУС - может заблокировать возможные
сделки с покупателями бизнеса. ПЛЮС –
может стать возможным покупателем.
23 april 2009 38Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
SeedcampSeedcamp & & YcombinatorYcombinator
• «клуб» VC и инвесторов-активистов
• Инвестируют $20-100K за 2-10% equity
• Инвестируют в десятки проектов
• Минимум сопровождения
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Financing Financing -- recaprecap
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• Friends & Family ($1K – $200K)
• Angels ($ 50K – 500K), Seedcamp/YC
• Early stage VC ($2m - $5m)
• Later stage VC ($5m – $25m)
• Growth capital ($20m + )
• IPO or Trade sale
Financing Financing -- ToolsTools
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• CAP Table
• Returns calculator
CAP TableCAP Table
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Returns CalculatorReturns Calculator
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ВОПРОСЫ?ВОПРОСЫ?
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WRAPWRAP--UPUP
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Наблюдения и выводыНаблюдения и выводы
• Start-up - первая фаза жизненного цикла бизнеса
• Заканчивается успехом или (чаще всего) провалом
• Оценка успеха относительна
• Персональные риски велики, но fun тоже ☺
• Market, Team, Product
• Product / Market Fit is key
• Презентация – keep it focused, simple
• Финансирование - не обязательно.
• Различные источники финансирования. Клиент – всегда лучше инвестора.
• Tools:– CAP Table
– Returns calculator
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“With knowledge “With knowledge
being universally being universally
accessible, there will accessible, there will
be no excuses for be no excuses for
nonnon--performance.”performance.”
Peter Drucker
23 april 2009 47Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
StartStart--up in 13 up in 13 sentensessentenses
• pick good co-founders
• launch fast
• let your idea evolve
• understand your users
• better to make a few users love you than a
lot ambivalent
• offer surprisingly good customer service
• you make what you measure
• spend little
• get profitable fast
• avoid distractions (raising money is one)
• don't get demoralized
• don't give up
• deals fall through (raise more than you
think you need)
PAUL GRAHAM, YCOMBINATOR
23 april 2009 48Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
Great quotesGreat quotes
• "Success is the ability to go from one failure to
another with no loss of enthusiasm."• Winston Churchill
• "When you want something, all the universe
conspires in helping you to achieve it."• Paulo Coelho
23 april 2009 49Alexey Patsko - [email protected]
[email protected]@myvocal.com
Twitter: @patsko
blog.patsko.com
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