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BENDURA BANK AGINVESTMENT GUIDE

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Members of CITYCHAMP-FamilyWe focus on the same client group

BENDURA BANK AGWe are successfully operating as a private bank in Liech-tenstein for 21 years. Our advisory groups are organized according to language regions (German, English, Italian, Spanish, Russian, Czech, Polish, Turkish, Mandarin, Can-tonese, Serbian, Croatian, Slovenian and Hungarian). Measured by profit after tax, we are in 4th place among 13 Liechtenstein banks. 41 top performers of our company hold 15% of the business shares of our institute.www.bendura.li

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Le Mirador Resort & Spa - Health CentreLocated in the heart of Switzerland’s UNESCO heritage vineyards, the Mirador Resort & Spa transports you to a summit of beauty and serenity. Nestled in an idyllic natu-ral setting affording breathtaking views, Le Mirador Health Centre is a true oasis of tranquillity offering a range of tech-niques, treatments and activities essential to maintaining inner balance.www.mirador.ch

BENDURA BANK INVESTMENT GUIDE | AUGUST 2020 | 1

1.1. OUR TOPICS Corona continues to dominate the headlines, for both everyday life and developments in the financial markets. What appeared to be inconceivable of late has now entered the realm of possibilities: US vot-ers may decline to give Donald Trump a second term in the White House as a result of the corona pandemic and his miserable handling of the associ-ated problems. The financial markets currently re-flect this scenario in their trading levels more and more each day. Viewed in retrospect, we in research may have re-acted early to the developing corona crisis with our forecasts: in the end, the mark of a worldwide reces-sion like the current one is that its full scope is gen-erally only clear over the course of time. Accordingly we currently find ourselves forced to adjust our fore-casts once more. Based on the information currently available to us, the sum of all goods produced and all services provided worldwide will decline by four percent in the current year: this represents an exac-erbation of the fatal situation by another full percent-age point, measured against our forecast from the previous month. Our view of both the euro area and the United States has gotten darker with respect to the full year of 2020. In the coming year the euro area will likely be a step ahead of the US in regard to real economic development. We did not change the development profile in that regard. Further we assume that the low point of the economic develop-ments around the globe was reached in the current second quarter. While US politics increasingly have to be viewed critically, Europe is putting points on the board al-most every day, particularly with respect to collabo-ration throughout the continent. The "reconstruction fund" on the horizon suggests things are moving toward increased integration. Meanwhile the euro area, in a relative view, is only trailing the level of yields in the US market modestly. This situation, with its contradictory and shifting elements, has caused us to shift our USD/EUR exchange rate forecast radically. Instead of a further euro devalu-ation, we are now assuming that the coming quar-ters will see a euro revival of sorts: reason enough for us to focus our special topic in this issue on

the relationship between the United States and Eu-rope, as well as the perspectives for the US dollar to euro exchange rate. Both the ECB and the Fed will not be shifting gears in July. Instead they will largely solidify the path they have taken thus far in the battle against the corona-virus. Toward the end of the month both Germany and the euro area, along with the US, will likely report an un-precedented drop in GDP for the second quarter, anticipated at around 10%. In the financial markets this development has largely been addressed – here the question is: How strong will the recovery be? On the political side three questions will dominate the view toward the second half of 2020: 1. (How quickly) will the EU states succeed in unify-ing around the "reconstruction programme" pro-posed by the EU Commission? 2. Who will win the US presidential election on 3 No-vember? 3. Will the EU and Great Britain make substantial progress before the end of the year with regard to a free trade agreement? 1.2. RECOVERY OF RISK ASSETS CONTIN-

UES – DAX ONLY DOWN JUST UNDER 4% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR

selected assets in %

1. VIEWPOINT AUGUST 2020

BENDURA BANK AGSchaaner Strasse 279487 Gamprin-BendernPrincipality of Liechtenstein

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Family Office Germany & Italy, Friedrich HETZENECKER+423 265 56 20, [email protected]: German, English

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Asset Management, Pasquale MARCIELLO+423 265 56 92, [email protected]

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Tax, Dr. Franz-Notker LICHTINGER+423 265 56 59, [email protected]

Individual Clients Global Markets, Holger LOOSE+423 265 56 26, [email protected]: German, English, Russian, Spanish

Individual Clients Eurasia, Anzhelika LUDESCHER+423 265 56 54, [email protected]: German, English, Russian, Azerbaijanian, Ukrainian

Individual Clients Central Europe, Ivan MELAY+423 265 56 45, [email protected]: German, English, Slovak

Institutional Clients Eastern Europe, Anatolijs NATORČA+423 265 56 38, [email protected]: English, German, Russian

Individual Clients Southwest Asia, Kerrar KULAK+423 265 56 91, [email protected]: German, English, French, Turkish

Individual Clients Turkey, Özlem ÖZBEK+423 265 56 94, [email protected]: English, Turkish

BENDURA BANK AGSchaaner Strasse 279487 Gamprin-BendernPrincipality of Liechtenstein

The dispute with Mexico and Canada – especially the way it played out – damaged the reputation of the US there. Mexico also feels discriminated against by Trump's plans to build a border wall. Trump's achievements – renegotiation of the FTA with South Korea As with Mexico and Canada, South Korea was also forced to accept changes in its bilateral FTA that benefitted the US. The impact The relationship with the US is of existential im-portance for the small country (North Korea) => little resistance. The revised version hardly offers any real advantages for the US economy. Because of Trump's threat to withdraw US troops or to levy fees on the country for providing "US protection", doubts about this ally have increased significantly there. Trump’s achievements – relationship with the EU The US is currently engaged in a trade war with the EU that has not yet fully escalated. At its core the dispute centres on the trade deficit the US has with the EU, and particularly with Germany. Trump is also demanding that the Europeans join his battle against the rise of China, i.e., fall in line with his de-mands in that arena. Further, the tension relates to shared defence, the burdens arising from it and the role of NATO in general. In regard to military ex-penditures, Trump is particularly critical of Ger-many, which is spending 2% of GDP on defence as agreed. Another point of dispute: The "Nord Stream 2" pipeline. The impact An increase in the customs duties levied by each side is likely only the beginning of the showdown on trade policy that is anticipated if Trump is re-elected. In the end, every state involved in the escalation of a trade war comes out on the losing side. The relationship between the US and the EU has worsened dramatically during Trump's term. Trump's style makes compromises difficult and pro-vokes rejection even when a compromise could be justifiable. Trump is threatening to withdraw approx-imately 9,500 US soldiers from Germany. The Western alliance has not been unified since Trump arrived – an invitation for adventurers of all kinds to challenge it (e.g. Putin).

Trump's achievements – "Obamacare" health insurance “Obamacare”, the health insurance introduced by Obama, has been gutted under Trump. The impact Many Americans have not only lost their jobs in the corona crisis, they have also lost their health insur-ance. Undermining "Obamacare" is now hitting mil-lions of people with full force. The number of Amer-icans without health insurance rose by two million: 13.7 percent of all US citizens are without health in-surance protection. Trump's achievements – withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement In 2019 the US withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement and nullified environmental regulations. The impact The efforts to stop global warming have suffered a major setback. It is difficult to convince emerging markets to forgo growth in wealth when the already-rich US is unwilling to accept limitations of any sort on itself. Trump's achievements – trade war with China High tariffs on the majority of Chinese imports and vice versa. The Phase 1 Deal to increase the import of US goods by China. An attempt by the US to cut Chinese businesses off from key American technol-ogies. USA: trade with China

2 | AUGUST 2020 | BENDURA BANK INVESTMENT GUIDE

2.1. THE PRESIDENCY OF DONALD TRUMP: IN SUM

Trump's achievements – tax reform Right at the beginning of his term, Trump imple-mented a massive tax reform amounting to around 1.5 trillion USD in total. Beneficiaries: Corporations and "the rich", mostly.

The impact The tax reform added further momentum to the up-swing that started before Trump's term began. Unemployment rates fell to levels that had not been recorded since 1970 (February 2020: 3.5%). US corporations increased their investments, albeit far less than hoped, and used the additional liquidity largely to buy back their own shares, which lifted the US stock market and made – largely wealthy – shareholders quite happy. S&P 500 corporations stuck over 800 billion USD in share buyback programmes in 2018. In Obama's last year this figure was 536 billion USD. The Trump-induced share of the upswing in the la-bour and equity markets came at a high price: while national debt should actually fall in boom times, in the US it continued to climb, and in 2019 it reached 106% of GDP. Trump's achievements – withdrawal from the "Trans Pacific Partnership" (TPP) After taking office Trump withdrew from the mas-sive, substantial free trade agreement that had been negotiated with eleven Pacific countries – including four ASEAN states – and excluded China.

TPP states (without the US):

The impact The TPP was intended to connect the Pacific states economically, and thus also politically, tying them to the US, in particular, with the effect of containing China's influence in the region. Trump's withdrawal strengthened China's position in the region and weakened that of the US consid-erably. China is now advancing its countermeasure, the Re-gional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and is luring many states in the Asia- Pacific region with investments in the framework of its "Belt and Road Initiative". China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the ten ASEAN states were able to conclude the treaty negotiations on the RCEP and sign it in 2020. Trump's achievements – renegotiation of NAFTA Trump forced Mexico and Canada to renegotiate the free trade agreement NAFTA. NAFTA continues to exist under the new name "USMCA" (United States-Mexico-Canada Agree-ment). The impact The revised version of NAFTA provides some com-petitive advantages for the US economy, but on the whole they are fairly negligible.

2. SPECIAL TOPIC

The impact The conflict has long ceased to be just a trade war; it is now part of a fundamental geopolitical conflict. Almost no country can stay out of it. Many of the reservations the US has against China are shared by other countries. A common interest in "hemming in" China would already appear to exist. Trump's fa-tal error: instead of lining up American allies behind the country, the US is snubbing them. This ap-proach is colouring every conflict with particular in-tensity and volatility. It had a negative impact on ge-opolitics and the global economy even before the Covid-19 crisis. 2.2. "PHASE 1 DEAL": CHINA IS BEHIND THE

PLAN Chinese imports of US goods: actual versus tar-get in billion USD

In regard to China's "Phase 1 Deal" imports from the US thus far, China is behind the target figures iden-tified in the "plan". However, there are no regulations specifying how many "Phase 1 Deal" goods must be imported from the US within a given MONTH. There is thus no breach of contract yet, because China can still catch up, at least theoretically. Nevertheless Trump can always exploit this lag as a reason for a renewed escalation in the trade war. The "election support" that Trump had hoped to re-ceive in the form of rising imports of US agricultural goods by China has not yet materialised.

2.3. US ELECTION: WHAT CAN BE EX-PECTED FROM A CHANGE IN LEADER-SHIP?

Who is Biden? − Born in 1942 in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The

region was dominated by coal and heavy in-dustry.

− When he was ten his family moved to Dela-ware. His father worked as a car salesman.

− After studying law and working as an attorney he began representing the State of Delaware in the US Senate in 1973.

− He was a US Senator for 36 years. − Vice President under Barack Obama for 8

years. − Many supporters, particularly among the

working class and trade unionists. − Considered to be an expert in foreign policy. What could be expected from him? Normalisation of the relationship with Europe: at the Munich Security Conference in 2019 he affirmed the unity between the US and Europe. US loyalty to alliances would again be secure. There would be no quick end to tariff disputes with the EU and China: many Democrats – especially those with union ties – also support protectionism. Because the dispute with China has taken on a ge-opolitical dimension, de-escalation would ensue, but there would not be a return to the time prior to Trump. 1,500 billion USD to make the US climate neutral by 2050. The US would return to the Paris Climate Agreement. The US minimum wage would double to 15 USD. The corporate tax rate would go from 21% to 28%. “Obamacare” would be retained and expanded. Moderate economic policy, statements on reform are vague. Consensus: Obama's one-time deputy will basically re-establish the status quo prior to Trump.

2.4. HOW WOULD A VICTORY BY BIDEN AF-FECT THE USD?

Assets (strengthening the dollar) Planned large infrastructure projects in transporta-tion, schools and "green technology" strengthen US capacity for the future. Increased reliability and legal stability for foreign corporations could make the US more attractive for FDI and portfolio investments. Early measures slowed the rise in infections in the US during the flu epidemic of 1918. Liabilities (weakening the dollar) − Tax increase burdens corporations: corpo-

rate tax rate from 21% to 28% − Introduction of a minimum tax rate of 15% for

corporations with at least 100 million USD in annual earnings

− Expansion of "Obamacare"

− Increase in highest tax rate from 37% to 39.6% could drive capital abroad

− The goal of making the US climate neutral by 2050 will burden corporations

− Doubling the minimum wage to 15 USD per hour will reduce earnings and investments

− Our conclusion: Biden's policies will likely weaken the USD against the euro!

2.5. SARS-COV-2: NEW INFECTION NUM-

BERS ONCE AGAIN RISING IN THE US After an initial phase of easing in the US, infection numbers there have risen rapidly since the middle of June. The factors underlying this trend are early easing of rules and the often half-hearted imple-mentation of preventive measures. In the euro area and in Great Britain the new infection numbers are currently trending toward the zero mark.

US versus euro area (proxy) and Great Britain

2.6. US ECONOMY: RECOVERY STARTING

FROM AUTUMN 2020 Growth of the US economy with forecasts in %

Following the massive drop in 2020 the US econ-omy is likely to be on the path to recovery in 2021. Revised GDP forecast: 2020 from -7.0% to -8.0%; 2021 from 4.0% to 5.5%. 2.7. EUR/USD: YIELD ADVANTAGE OF US

TREASURIES SHARPLY REDUCED The corona crisis led to a drastic fall in interest rates and yields in the US.

The interest advantage vis-a-vis euro area counter-parts has shrunk considerably. Yield on 5-year government bonds: euro area (proxy) vs. the US in % (euro area: DE + FR + SP + IT "equally weighted")

2.8. MONETARY POLICY: MARKET PARTICI-

PANTS ANTICIPATE THAT NEITHER THE FED NOR THE ECB WILL TIGHTEN MON-ETARY POLICY IN THE COMING YEARS

3M money market rates in the US and the euro area with market expansion from forward rates, and forecast, in %

2.9. EUR/USD: EURO WITH NEW MOMEN-TUM?

Underestimated community currency − US interest and yield advantage shrinks con-

siderably in short period − Euro clearly undervalued based on purchas-

ing power parity − Recovery of the world economy in 2021 al-

lows currencies of export-oriented states to soar

− "New Deal" in the euro area (reconstruction fund) strengthens confidence in the commu-nity currency

− Major unknown: US politics Biden wins (65%) − Easing of tensions between US and EU − Coordinated strategy in dealing with the co-

rona crisis and China; "revival" of the West-ern alliance

− EUR/USD rises to 1.20 in 2021 Trump wins (35%) − (Trade) conflicts continue to escalate − Continued generally erratic confrontation

USA/China, and also USA/Europe − Europe caught in the middle − Euro comes under pressure again 2.10. EURO RISES VIS-A-VIS USD Pro euro - US interest and yield advantage shrinks sharply - euro undervalued based on purchasing power parity - "New Deal" in the euro area strengthens confi-dence - Improved corona data in Europe - Likely victory by Biden Pro USD - Election victory by Trump - Conflict escalation - New edition of euro area crisis - Brexit aftershocks

− Will there be a "hard Brexit" after all?

− Euro area: first glimpses of light

− Euro area: more than 3.5 trillion euros against the pandemic consequences

− Germany: recovery in the second half and

pronounced inflation profile

− China: recovery continues

− Japan: drop in industrial production: PMIs somewhat better

− Emerging markets:

− Recession also hits emerging markets

− EM/world: sharp fall 2020, recovery 2021 3.1. WILL THERE BE A "HARD BREXIT" AF-

TER ALL? Transitional phase through 31 December 2020 No significant break-throughs yet in the current round of negotiations Fishing rights, terms of equal competition, and role of the European Court of Justice are points at issue British government representatives stress that the United Kingdom is prepared to bear the conse-quences of "no deal" Negotiation of an agreement needed by 31 October at the latest because of required ratification Trade according to WTO rules ("hard Brexit") (55%) − Tariffs and customs inspections in accord-

ance with WTO − UK more strongly affected than euro area − Pound weakens against euro − UK, GDP growth 2020 at -8.6%, in 2021

+5.5%, corona covers up the economic con-sequences!

Free trade agreement (45%) − "Minimising damage"

− Stronger economic recovery 2021: UK, GDP growth 2020 at -8.6%, then +7.5% in 2021

3.2. FIRST GLIMPSES OF LIGHT IN THE

EURO AREA Overview of EMU macroeconomic indicators

The table of macroeconomic indicators currently shows some figures that are in part extreme. For-eign trade, in particular, experienced massive inter-ruptions at times. On the other hand, important leading indicators dis-tanced themselves from their lows. The situation in the labour market has also been robust thus far – thanks to widespread temporary work – although it is still expected to worsen. The strong rise in the M3 money supply is notewor-thy. 3.3. AROUND 3.5 TRILLION EUROS AS AN-

SWER TO THE PANDEMIC CONSE-QUENCES?

The contours of the Reconstruction Fund for those states particularly impacted by the pandemic are taking shape. We expect decisive action from Germany's EU Council presidency in the second half of 2020.

3. MACRO

The Reconstruction Fund supplements direct aid, public expenditures and credit guarantees for busi-nesses, which for the G-4 and the EU constitutes approximately 3.5 trillion euros or approximately 30% of the 2019 GDP of the EMU. 3.4. FORECAST EMU: DOWNWARD IN Q2,

THEREAFTER UPWARD The economy may have reached and passed its low point in Q2. The leading indicators suggest as much, having risen sharply since May. However, the nosedive in Q2 will have been sub-stantial. For the largest countries in the euro area a loss of 10-15% is anticipated relative to the same quarter of the previous year. Q3 should see growth of 6% Q/Q, in our view. The Q2 losers will likely be the winners in Q3. Q4 should also see strong growth. EMU: GDP Q/Q and contributions of the states (quarterly values in % and percentage points)

3.5. CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RE-

COVERS, RETAIL SALES OFFER HOPE Industrial production in %, Y-Y

Retail sales/retail sales automobile sector in %, Y-Y

3.6. CHINA: PMIS RECOVER PMIs: manufacturing and service sector index values (with subcomponent "new export or-ders")

While the PMI for manufacturing continues to lethar-gically meander just over the 50-point mark, the PMI for the service sector has shifted markedly higher. The service sector represents somewhat more than half of Chinese GDP. Within the PMI for manufac-turing the subcomponent "new export orders" is still in contraction mode, however the trend appears to have managed to shift in a more positive direction. The difficult global economy does not suggest that a rapid return to former heights is likely, particularly in foreign trade. 3.7. CHINA: ALTERNATIVE INDICATORS

ALSO SUGGEST A RECOVERY Electricity consumption by Chinese industry has ex-ceeded its five-year average again of late. This measure matches the recent rise in industrial pro-duction.

China: electricity consumption, industrial in billion kilowatt-hours with 5-year average

China: domestic freight volume In million tonnes with 5-year average

Domestic freight volumes have also returned to the level of their five-year average. These "alternative" economic indicators confirm the impression of a rapidly recovering Chinese econ-omy. 3.8. JAPAN: ECONOMIC DATA WEAK, PMIS

RISING Industrial production in % Y-Y with 3-month MAV

Japanese industrial production dropped by 26% on an annualised basis in May. The economy is now suffering substantially from the crisis. PMIs: manufacturing and services in % and in % Y-Y

The PMIs are still mired in the contraction range, however the low point nevertheless appears to have been crossed. 3.9. EMERGING MARKETS / WORLD: MAJOR

FALL IN 2020, RECOVERY IN 2021 GDP development by group of countries GDP indexed to 100 with IMF forecasts

In its June update to the World Economic Outlook for 2020, the IMF assumes there will be a major world recession that will hit every group of countries. China will likely be the fastest country to emerge from the recession. The recent economic data from China confirms this view. For the emerging markets excluding China, economic output in the middle of 2021 will likely be roughly at the level from before the crisis. Among developed countries it will take until 2022 before this level will be able to be reached again. All this presupposes that there is not a sec-ond major global infection wave with a new set of extensive "lockdowns".

− The ECB and the Fed continue to throw all available expansive monetary policy instru-ments at the economy in order to temper the consequences of the corona crisis.

− The Fed took interest rate increases off the table for the foreseeable future and is further suppressing volatility in the bond market with a lower limit for its bond purchases.

− If the signs of a dynamic economic recovery strengthen, this still opens the path for a yield increase in the US government bond market. Investors' need to hedge against the unpre-dictability of the corona crisis is supporting prices, on the other hand.

− In the euro government bond market high emission pressure continues to prevail. The supply constellation may nevertheless be less of a burden in Q3 than in the spring. The ECB is purchasing 70% of the gross supply, mathematically speaking.

4.1. FED: PROJECTIONS SUGGEST UN-

CHANGED PRIME INTEREST RATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF 2022 – IS A "YIELD CURVE CONTROL" COMING?

US call money rate and market expectations from forwards, as well as forecast and FOMC median projection, in %

The US Federal Reserve Bank confirmed its ultra-expansive path at its recent interest meeting, as ex-pected. The new prime rate interest projections (dot plot) concretise the planning for the future on inter-est: an increase should not be anticipated before the end of 2022, at least.

Based on forward rates in the USD money market, the market participants agree with this view on in-terest. We see our past forecast affirmed here, in which a turn in leading interest rates was projected for 2023 – and if there was any doubt, it could even be later, because the Fed absolutely wants to avoid tighten-ing its monetary policy too soon. The Fed has reserved the right to introduce a yield curve control policy. 4.2. USD BOND MARKET: FED SETS LOWER

LIMIT FOR MONTHLY BOND PUR-CHASES AT 120 BILLION USD

Fed balance sheet total and holdings of US gov-ernment bonds as well as the trend of weekly change in holdings

Regarding its purchases of US government bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), the Fed of-fered concrete guidance for the first time since the beginning of the corona crisis. After peak values of more than 100 billion USD per week in March and April, the volume of purchases has softened recently in the course of a noticeable stabilisation of the financial markets' development. The Fed acquired approximately 20 billion USD of US Treasuries per week in recent months. Until further notice the bond purchases will continue at least at this rate, i.e. 80 billion USD per month of US Treasuries, plus 40 billion USD per month of MBS. This "floor" should effectively limit the volatility in the US Treasury market.

4. INTEREST

4.3. USD BOND MARKET: GLOBAL ECO-NOMIC RECOVERY CLEARS PATH FOR RISE IN LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES

Global PMI for the manufacturing sector and yield on 10-year US Treasuries

The USD bond market was only slightly sensitive to the abundance of positive economic surprises from the US and from other important economic regions in the past weeks. The sentiment in manufacturing has turned to "ex-pansion" according to the ISM Index in June. Glob-ally the collapse due to the corona crisis has also largely been made up for. The Fed's ultra-expansive monetary policy impulses prevent a noticeable reaction in the bond market at the present. If the positive economic tendency is affirmed in the coming months, this trend could increase the space for rising long-term interest rates. 4.4. USD BOND MARKET: HIGH UNCER-

TAINTY IN LIGHT OF CORONA PANDEMIC KEEPS INVESTORS' HEDGING NEED HIGH

Aside from the support provided by the comprehen-sive bond purchases through US currency overse-ers, the most important element currently propping prices in the bond market is the corona situation, which is peaking again in the US. Much like the "crisis currency" gold, US government bonds profit from investors' increased need for se-curity because of major uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic.

Using the most recent multi-year record for gold as a measure, the 10-year Treasury yield could head toward its lows from March again if the pandemic continues to escalate. In the event of a containment, both gold and Treasuries face the prospect of losing ground. Yield on 10-year US Treasuries and gold price (in USD/ounce)

4.5. EUR GOVERNMENT BONDS: SUPPLY

AND ECB PURCHASES – ECB BUYING APPROXIMATELY 70% OF THE GROSS SUPPLY IN Q3 (MATHEMATICALLY)

Gross and net emission volumes in Q3 for each country and expected ECB purchases (nominal value equivalents) in billion euros (forecast)

The EZB once again substantially expanded its net bond purchases under the emergency program PEPP, and a continuation of its net purchases at the recently noted record rate of approximately 150 bil-lion euros/month appears to be easily possible for the coming months.

4. INTEREST

The maturities of the ECB in the context of the PSPP will be approximately 48 billion euros in the third quarter (with an emphasis on July with 28 bil-lion euros). According to our estimation a good 35 billion euros of this sum will be in government bonds. On a purely mathematical basis (no purchases in the primary market), the ECB may well acquire 120% of the net emissions and 70% of the gross emis-sions in Q3, based on our estimates – both figures are higher than in Q2 (gross estimate: 57%). 4.6. EURO BOND MARKET: TREND REVER-

SAL FOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS? 5Y forward inflation expectations for the euro area and 10Y EUR swap rate

As hopes have grown for an economic recovery in the euro area, long-term inflation expectations in the EUR interest market have climbed to their highest level since the beginning of March 2020. The ECB's repeated additions to its monetary policy impulses have likely also lifted inflation expectations, in our view. If this increase proves to be sustainable, then upward pressure on long-term interest rates is likely to result in the mid term. It still appears to be too early for a change in trends, however: inflation in the euro area will likely fall again over the summer, in our view, and furthermore, core inflation is ap-proaching its previous record low of 0.6%. 4.7. CONCLUSION: CENTRAL BANK INTER-

VENTIONS KEEP YIELDS LOW – MODER-ATE RISE AGAIN IN THE COURSE OF CORONA DE-ESCALATION

USA: The Fed will likely hold its prime rate close to zero in the foreseeable future, even after the corona

shock trails off. Supplementing bond purchases with a yield curve control strategy is realistic. The yield of 10-year US Treasuries will likely trend near pre-vious all-time lows in the near term, but in the mid term in the course of an economic recovery a mod-erate increase is expected, and the yield curve would then become even steeper. US prime rate and 10-year Treasury yields with forecasts

Euro area: The ECB will hold its deposit rate at -0.50% until further notice. A QE programme will likely be increased again, with a careful drawing down of vol-umes not beginning until 2021. Long-term interest rates will be in an extended period of bottom for-mation. A renewed setback remains possible, and in the mid term a moderate increase cannot be an-ticipated until the coronavirus pandemic ebbs. ECB prime interest rate and 10-year Bund yields with forecast

− Prices were not able to pass the most recent highs again – with the exception of Nasdaq.

− Massively outperforming FANMAG titles in-creasingly represent a concentration risk for the overall market.

− Recovery despite downward earnings revi-sions: investors look past the valley – second revision phase with the Q2 numbers?

− For 2021 it is probably still too optimistic: fore-casts undermine a V – will it now be an in-verted square root sign?

− First a sharp drop, then recovery – but prob-ably not even close to returning to the pre-co-rona earnings level.

− Depending on the point of view: equities have seldom been so expensive, but they remain attractive.

5.1. PRICES WERE NOT ABLE TO PASS THE

MOST RECENT HIGHS AGAIN – WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NASDAQ.

International equity markets indexed to the respective pre-corona-high percent

The recovery rally has been in a holding pattern since Fed chair Jerome Powell prepared investors for a lengthy, difficult period in the course of the most recent FOMC meetings. Only the Nasdaq has been able to reach new highs since then.

5.2. MASSIVE OUTPERFORMANCE OF FANMAG SHARES: CONCENTRATION RISK FOR THE OVERALL MARKET

FANMAG vs. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexed in percent (31.12.2014 = 0%)

Excluding the FANMAG shares (Facebook, Ama-zon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple and Google parent Al-phabet) the performance of both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 would look much weaker. Those titles have exhibited a notable outperfor-mance for years. With the corona crisis this devel-opment become quite dynamic again, because those tech shares were not negatively impacted by the lockdowns, in contrast to many other sectors, and even profited from social distancing and work-ing from home. Because the Republicans tend to take a critical view of tech stocks, the FANMAG shares are likely to profit from a potential election win by Biden. FANMAG: share of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 in percent

The dependence of the US equity markets on FANMAG shares – already quite strong – has only intensified of late. In the meantime these six shares make up a 50% share of the Nasdaq 100 and nearly 23% of the S&P 500. If these shares get into trouble, it would wreak havoc throughout the entire market.

5. EQUITIES

Currently the FANMAG shares are facing strong headwinds: Google is currently facing an antitrust suit by the US Department of Justice, which could, in an extreme case, lead to it being split up. Some US states are also pursuing investigations against Facebook. Amazon is being criticised over unfair trade practices, and the EU Commission has initi-ated an anti-trust investigation against Apple. 5.3. RECOVERY DESPITE DOWNWARD

EARNINGS REVISIONS: INVESTORS LOOK PAST THE VALLEY – SECOND RE-VISION PHASE WITH THE Q2 NUMBERS?

S&P 500 and DAX: 12-month forward earnings in comparison in percent

The fact that equity prices recovered quite forcefully despite massive downward earnings revisions seems to be attributable, besides the immense li-quidity provided by governments and central banks, to investors' willingness to look past the corona swoon and their expectations that a V-shaped eco-nomic recovery will ensue. Because the impact of corona on earnings was im-minent because of the lockdowns, analysts adjusted their earnings estimates downward much more briskly than in response to the financial crisis. It is astonishing, given that the corona crisis is expected to be much worse on the whole than the financial crisis, that the downward revisions have been less significant than during the financial crisis. We ex-pect that these revisions will continue with the Q2 numbers.

5.4. PROBABLY STILL TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR 2021 – FORECASTS SPEAK AGAINST A "V" – WILL IT BE AN INVERTED SQUARE ROOT SIGN?

International share indexes Earnings forecasts in points and anticipated earn-ings growth in percent

V-shaped recovery? Will the consequences of co-rona really already be processed in 2021? The I/B/E/S consensus forecasts suggest it, at least. This seems optimistic to us. We anticipate that co-rona will most likely also have a palpable impact on P&L figures in the coming year. Neither a trigger event like Lehman nor a second, larger wave that could lead to a new, broad wave of lockdowns would be needed for this impact to occur. Because it will likely take until the middle of 2021 for a widely available vaccination to be ready, produc-tion will likely continue to suffer as a result of dis-tancing requirements and hygiene needs. Further-more, consumers will almost certainly not consume at previous levels in light of the loss of employment or threat of it. 5.5. FIRST A SHARP DROP, THEN RECOV-

ERY – BUT PROBABLY NOT EVEN CLOSE TO RETURNING TO THE PRE-CO-RONA EARNINGS LEVEL.

With the US reporting season for the 2nd quarter of 2020, the focus will soon shift once again to busi-nesses. It traditionally takes longer before the do-mestic reporting season likewise shifts into high gear. Because of corona the S&P 500 Q1 earnings were down 11% over the Q4 2019 figures. Because Q2 was affected even more significantly by lockdowns than Q1, however, horror-like numbers are now

looming. The consensus at the moment is that Q2 earnings will end up even lower than in Q1, this time by almost 39% (!). If additional lockdowns can be avoided, then earn-ings levels in the subsequent quarters may rise again, however they will still fall far shy of the levels before corona. S&P 500: anticipated and actual quarterly earn-ings in index points

5.6. DEPENDING ON PERSPECTIVE: EQUI-

TIES HAVE SELDOM BEEN SO EXPEN-SIVE, BUT THEY REMAIN ATTRACTIVE

Capitalisation of S&P 500 vs. US GDP in billion US dollars

Relative to their own history equities have now be-come very expensive. This applies in particularly strong measure to the S&P 500. Its 12M fwd. P/E ratio is now about 22.5.

Although the S&P 500 represents only a fraction of the US economy – albeit a very important one – the capitalisation of the S&P 500 has clearly exceeded US GDP for some time. Currently the premium over US GDP is around 24%, which is thus almost as much as the figure during the dot-com bubble in 2000 (25%). Earnings yield vs. corporates yield in percent

The earnings yield of equities (=inverse index-P/E ratio) is above the yield of a portfolio of corporate bonds with comparable ratings in both Europe and the US. Because equities represent higher risk than corpo-rates, they are, rationally speaking, only attractive compared with the latter if the earnings yield not only exceeds the yield of corporates, but goes be-yond, and the difference is also sufficiently large to serve as a risk equivalent. This is currently the case both in Europe and the US, because the premium in favour of equities is higher than in the respective historic averages.

6.1. ECONOMY AND MARKET SCENARIO: MAIN SCENARIO 65% (PREVIOUSLY 65%)

Forecasts

Developments The corona pandemic has pushed the world into a major recession. The economic low point was in the second quarter. Public and economic life in many countries has begun to come back to life, albeit slowly, following the quarantine measures under-taken there. In Germany the GDP will shrink in 2020 by 7% over the previous year; in the euro area it will be 8.3%. In the US GDP will fall by 8%. In China GDP growth of +1.0% will be significantly lower than in previous years. Every country will have in common that the economy will see a strong recovery after the end of the lockdowns. In Europe and the US pre-crisis lev-els will not be reached before the end of 2021, and even later in part. Inflation rates sink as a consequence of the drop in demand. This overcompensates for the price pres-sure due to lost production or disruptions in agricul-ture and transportation. Risk aversion in the financial markets initially re-mains high. Government bonds are favoured as a safe harbour.

6.2. ECONOMY AND MARKET SCENARIO: OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO 20% (PREVI-OUSLY 20%)

Forecasts

Developments The recovery process after the end of most re-strictions will take place quickly and forcefully. Start-ing from Q3 a strong recovery begins, carried by monetary and fiscal policy, and supported by low oil prices. A large share of losses can be made up for in the current year and in the first half of 2021. By the end of this period a vaccine against Covid-19 will be available, such that life can quickly nor-malise again. The ECB and Fed maintain their very expansive monetary policy until the economic consequences of the pandemic have been overcome. Corporate earnings rise again in the mid term. There is no large wave of insolvencies. The job mar-ket in Germany and in the euro area shows only a small decline in employment, the job market in the US recovers briskly. The money market rates in the euro area will remain negative for the longer term; yields will rise, but only moderately. The equity markets recover quickly and forcefully.

6. FORECASTS AND ALLOCATION

Forecasts

6.3. ECONOMY AND MARKET SCENARIO: RISK SCENARIO 15% (PREVIOUSLY 15%)

Forecasts

Developments Many measures in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus remain in effect in most industrial-ised countries for a long time, harming productivity for the foreseeable future through corporate insol-vencies and an ongoing interruption of supply chains. In countries where quarantine measures are sus-pended, there is a second wave of infections. Only "herd immunity" following a large number of infec-tions can stop the virus. Monetary and fiscal policy measures go nowhere in light of the continued spread of infections. The eco-nomic recovery proves to be much weaker than the sharp drop (more L than U). GDP in industrialised countries drops by around 10% in 2020. The security of government bonds, top cre-ditworthiness, and cash are prized in the financial markets. Political unrest begins to accompany the economic consequences. In the USA the election campaign for the presidency leads to social radicalisation. In China party leadership reacts to system criticism

and growing discontent with repression. Globalisa-tion as a goal is called into question from many sides. In the EMU the debt crisis flares up again over the debates on assistance for individual states and co-rona bonds.

Forecasts

At the beginning of June 2020 the Chinese govern-ment presented its ambitious plans for Hainan – an island province 30 times the size of Hong Kong in the southernmost part of the country. Hainan – also known as China's Hawaii – was largely only known as a vacation destination until now, based on its tropical climate. In 2018 the province welcomed over 76 million tourists, which corresponds to an in-crease of 11.8% over the previous year. That is set to change now, however. As part of an unprece-dented investment offensive, the world's largest free trade port is set to be built in Hainan by 2050. 7.1. FROM TOURIST HAVEN TO THE

WORLD'S LARGEST TRADE HUB Politicians laid the foundation for today's plan at the end of the 1980s. On 13 April 1988 Hainan was des-ignated as an independent province. In this context the island was also granted special economic zone status. The change led to Hainan enjoying the ben-efit of more open and flexible laws regarding trade and payment transactions. Its privileges exceeded even those of most other provinces with the same status. The measures did not miss their intended ef-fect. Within just a few years the province developed into the largest special economic zone in the region. In the period from 1988 to 1993 real estate prices rose by almost 600%. The real estate bubble burst in 1993, however, which led the hitherto rapid de-velopment to turn into stagnation for the following 15 years. At the end of 2009 politicians made another attempt at continuing to develop the island. Right at the be-ginning of 2010 the Chinese State Council an-nounced its strategy to transform Hainan into a leading tourist destination. The state supported Hai-nan's development with the expansion of infrastruc-ture, special permits for investments and numerous subsidies. Furthermore, visa-free entry was permit-ted for 60 countries – including the US. The plan worked, and tourism boomed in the following years. Between 2010 and 2017 Hainan had almost 600 million guests, which generated revenue estimated at around 35 billion USD. The annual growth rates stood at an impressive 16%, on average. Among foreign tourists, Russian guests top the charts, which is why many signs are displayed in Russian – along with English. International hoteliers have also recognised this trend, and luxury hotel chains like

Ritz-Carlton, Shangri La, Mandarin Oriental and JW Marriott have now settled in the region as a result. In April 2018 the next development step followed, and the central government in Peking granted Hai-nan the status of a foreign trade zone. This step was taken with the idea in mind of establishing a free trade port in the near future. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China then approved the project's official launch in June 2020. The infrastruc-ture for the port will be constructed by 2025. In the following 10 years, until 2035, the port is supposed to "mature". China is aware that a free trade port must be embedded in a functioning infrastructure in order to be able to use the available capacities effi-ciently. Both the inflow and outflow of goods and un-complicated access for business travellers are points of focus. For this reason China has already begun to improve the existing railway system, and over the next years it will be expanded substantially. In addition, a new airline was established in mid-June 2020 (Sanya International Airlines), which will be based at the Sanya Phoenix international Airport in Hainan. The airline is controlled by majority owner China Eastern Airlines, which in turn is held to a large extent (62%) by the Chinese government. The ultimate goal is it to connect Hainan to the in-ternational trade network by way of a controlled opening, and to thus create a link for the communist-influenced economic system of China. Hong Kong serves as a model, in part, for this planning. The step is seen by many experts as an indicator that China is ready for further liberalisation and would like to transition the highly regulated state carefully into an economic form that is closer to the market. Politicians will proceed very carefully, however, con-tinuously analysing the impact and making adjust-ments as needed. The free trade port is not just meant to lift trade with Europe and America. The central location of the is-land also offers tremendous potential for co-opera-tion with the other countries of Southeast Asia. In addition, the so-called "Greater Bay Area" is sup-posed to be connected more closely, and the local economy will be integrated more tightly. The "Greater Bay Area" is in southern China and in-cludes 9 cities in mainland China (Guangdong prov-ince) and the two special administrative zones Hong Kong and Macau. This 56,000 square kilometre area is home to 70 million inhabitants, and with a

7. CHINA INSIDE

gross domestic product of USD 1.3 trillion it repre-sents about 12% of the entire Chinese economic output. Apart from the capital contributed by the Chinese government and local enterprises, the province con-tinues to be open for foreign investors. Hainan is also supposed to be made attractive for interna-tional backers and create additional growth through the targeted waiver of entry restrictions and the cre-ation of a stable legal framework. The local rules are to be modelled on existing international regulations to provide for appropriate legal certainty. In order to create additional incentives, the government has promised tax reductions for selected persons and enterprises. Furthermore, most goods and raw ma-terials can be traded free of tariffs. If more than 30% of value creation is added in Hainan, then duty-free import into the rest of China is expected to be pos-sible. The customs infrastructure needed for it is planned, with completion by 2025. Critical voices After the plans were made public, however, critical voices also surfaced. International trade experts fear that World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules on trade and competition will be violated by the foreign trade zone in combination with the newly planned free trade port. China agreed to these rules in 2001, which facilitated the country's integration into the network of international trade. The rules specify, among other things, that trade and customs regula-tions must be consistent across the whole country and that no advantages through reduced competi-tion for certain groups may exist. This principle, in particular, is deemed to be at risk by critics. Hainan offers enormous advantages as a location with the possibility of duty-free imports into the billion-resi-dent market of mainland China. Permits to establish a presence and business licences still depend on permission from the local provincial government, however. Due to this constellation foreign partici-pants could still be disadvantaged. It remains to be seen, however, how the new regulations will be put into practice later. Conclusion With the building of the world's largest free trade port in Hainan, China is showing once again that its politicians are intentionally developing the country with a targeted, long-term plan. The goal is always to stabilise China's influence and competitiveness in

an international context, and to continue to expand them. In order to achieve this goal, an enormous in-vestment programme will be implemented over the coming decades. The province of Hainan, thus far largely known as a holiday destination, is being groomed to be the world's number one centre of commerce by 2050, at the latest. If this succeeds, then China will not only be one of the key access points for trade with the US and Europe. It will also strengthen its supremacy in Asia will strengthen and thus reduce its dependence on others. Development of tourism in Hainan

Development of GDP in Hainan

7. CHINA INSIDE

ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

In addition to our classical mandates we offer also special mandates. Our customers can work to-gether with our experts to define the parameters for a personal strategy tailored to their own needs and preferences (bespoke strategy). The portfolio can be managed as either an advising or an administra-tive mandate. Due to high demand, combined with our team's spe-cial know-how for Asia, we launched the BENDURA Asian Dragon Portfolio on 31 March 2020.

The investment solution is based on a strategy in which half of the investments are allocated in Asia. Southeastern Asia, in particular, has seen massive increases in importance in the last 20 years. There is no doubt that this trend will continue on a long-term basis. With BENDURA Asian Dragon our cus-tomers can invest in the fastest-growing markets in a targeted manner.

BENDURA ASIAN DRAGON

BENDURA ASIAN DRAGONStrategic 1 Tactical

Money Market 2.5 2.5USD Cash 2.5 2.5

Fixed Income 37.5 32.5Government Bonds 5.0 0.0Corporate Investment Grade Bonds 10.0 10.0High Yield Bonds 5.0 5.0Emerging Market Bonds 12.5 12.5Convertible Bonds 5.0 5.0

Equities 40.0 40.0Developed Market Equities 20.0 20.0Emerging Market Equities 20.0 20.0

Alternative Investments 20.0 25.0Gold and other Commodities 3.0 5.0Real Estate Asia 5.0 5.0Structured Credits 8.0 10.0Insurance Linked Securities 4.0 5.0

Key figures per 30.6.2020 SAA 2 Portfolio 4

Return since 31.03.2020 12.42% 14.46%

Historical return p.a. 6.41% -

Historical volatility p.a. 9.85% -

Maximum drawdown -37.79% -

Sharpe Ratio 0.31 0.31

Expected return3 6.30% 0.063

Expected volatility3 12.80% 0.128

4Historical portfolio key figures are not yet available or representative as the BENDURA Asian Dragon Portfolio was launched March 31, 2020.

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance SAA 2

1The strategy can be customized modularly to meet individual client's needs.2The historical backtesting of the Asian Dragon SAA was performed by Credit Suisse AG and covers the period between 01-2000 and 12-2019.3The expected return and volatility has been determined by Credit Suisse AG using Monte-Carlo simulations.

Money Market2.5%

Bonds32.5%

Equities40.0%

Alternative Investments25.0%

INTEREST INCOME The fund is invested exclusively in fixed-interest bearing

STRATEGY instruments with a very broad diversification.

Capital appreciation as of

Asset Allocation 30.06.2020

92% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -0.82%

Key figures since 31.12.2018

Bandwidths Overall return 5.23%

Money market 0-20% Standard deviation

Bonds 80-100% (since 31.12.2018) 3.62

Equities 0% Correlation 0.9920

INCOME Our primary objective is to preserve the capital and

STRATEGY generate a regular income.

72.5% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -2.90%

20.5% Equities Key figures since 31.12.2018

Bonds 60-100% (since 31.12.2018) 6.95

Equities 15-25% Correlation 0.9829

BALANCED The aim of this strategy is to generate a regular income

STRATEGY and achieve capital appreciation through price gains.

53% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -4.66%

41% Equities Key figures since 31.12.2018

Bonds 40-60% (since 31.12.2018) 10.36

GROWTH The focus of the "growth" strategy is on capital

STRATEGY appreciation through price gains.

33.75% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -5.89%

Bonds 20-40% (since 31.12.2018) 14.04

CAPITAL GAIN The aim of the "capital gain" investment strategy is to achieve high

STRATEGY capital appreciation over the longer term through price gains.

96% Equities since 31.12.2019 -8.25%

Bonds 0% (since 31.12.2018) 20.82

Whether you would like to protect your wealth against inflation or increase it over the long term with shares, depending on your risk appetite, we offer you the following 5 classic investment strategies:

* The data above from 01/01/2019 are based on the Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) of BENDURA BANK AG in EUR and the data of earlier period are based on backtesting data of the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) of BENDURA BANK AG in EUR.

Money market8%

Bonds92%

Money market4.0%

Bonds72.5%

Equities20.5%

Alternative investments3.0%

Money market3.0%

Bonds53.0%

Equities41.0%

Money market1.75%

Bonds33.75%Equities

61.50%

Money market1.0%

Equities96.0%

95100105110115120125130

95100105110115120125130135140

BENDURA ASIAN DRAGONStrategic 1 Tactical

Money Market 2.5 2.5USD Cash 2.5 2.5

Fixed Income 37.5 32.5Government Bonds 5.0 0.0Corporate Investment Grade Bonds 10.0 10.0High Yield Bonds 5.0 5.0Emerging Market Bonds 12.5 12.5Convertible Bonds 5.0 5.0

Equities 40.0 40.0Developed Market Equities 20.0 20.0Emerging Market Equities 20.0 20.0

Alternative Investments 20.0 25.0Gold and other Commodities 3.0 5.0Real Estate Asia 5.0 5.0Structured Credits 8.0 10.0Insurance Linked Securities 4.0 5.0

Key figures per 30.6.2020 SAA 2 Portfolio 4

Return since 31.03.2020 12.42% 14.46%

Historical return p.a. 6.41% -

Historical volatility p.a. 9.85% -

Maximum drawdown -37.79% -

Sharpe Ratio 0.31 0.31

Expected return3 6.30% 0.063

Expected volatility3 12.80% 0.128

4Historical portfolio key figures are not yet available or representative as the BENDURA Asian Dragon Portfolio was launched March 31, 2020.

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance SAA 2

1The strategy can be customized modularly to meet individual client's needs.2The historical backtesting of the Asian Dragon SAA was performed by Credit Suisse AG and covers the period between 01-2000 and 12-2019.3The expected return and volatility has been determined by Credit Suisse AG using Monte-Carlo simulations.

Money Market2.5%

Bonds32.5%

Equities40.0%

Alternative Investments25.0%

INTEREST INCOME The fund is invested exclusively in fixed-interest bearing

STRATEGY instruments with a very broad diversification.

92% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -0.82%

Bonds 80-100% (since 31.12.2018) 3.62

Equities 0% Correlation 0.9920

INCOME Our primary objective is to preserve the capital and

STRATEGY generate a regular income.

72.5% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -2.90%

Bonds 60-100% (since 31.12.2018) 6.95

BALANCED The aim of this strategy is to generate a regular income

STRATEGY and achieve capital appreciation through price gains.

53% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -4.66%

41% Equities Key figures since 31.12.2018

Bonds 40-60% (since 31.12.2018) 10.36

GROWTH The focus of the "growth" strategy is on capital

STRATEGY appreciation through price gains.

33.75% Bonds since 31.12.2019 -5.89%

Bonds 20-40% (since 31.12.2018) 14.04

CAPITAL GAIN The aim of the "capital gain" investment strategy is to achieve high

STRATEGY capital appreciation over the longer term through price gains.

96% Equities since 31.12.2019 -8.25%

Bonds 0% (since 31.12.2018) 20.82

Whether you would like to protect your wealth against inflation or increase it over the long term with shares, depending on your risk appetite, we offer you the following 5 classic investment strategies:

* The data above from 01/01/2019 are based on the Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) of BENDURA BANK AG in EUR and the data of earlier period are based on backtesting data of the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) of BENDURA BANK AG in EUR.

Money market8%

Bonds92%

Money market4.0%

Bonds72.5%

Equities20.5%

Money market3.0%

Bonds53.0%

Equities41.0%

Money market1.75%

Bonds33.75%Equities

61.50%

Money market1.0%

Equities96.0%

95100105110115120125130

95100105110115120125130135140

MARKET MONITOR

EconomicsGDP (yoy in %) Inflation (yoy in %) 3-month interest rates (in %)

03/2019 06/2020 17.6.2020 06/2019 06/2018CH 0.80 CH -1.30 -0.65 -0.73 -0.73DE 1.00 DE -0.30 -0.41 -0.39 -0.36EU 1.83 EU 0.60 0.32 2.32 2.34USA 2.70 USA 0.60 0.17 0.77 0.67UK 2.00 UK 0.60 -0.05 -0.07 -0.05JPN 0.80 JPN 0.30 0.14 1.00 1.50AUS 1.70 AUS NV 2.03 2.61 3.01CN 6.40 CN 2.50

10-year treasury yields (in %)

Currencies

EUR/USD GBP/USD

EUR/CHF USD/CHF

CNYAUDJPYGBPUSDEURCHF

9.8GBP/CHF 1.1911 -7.4 1.4 -1.5

147.1 9.8GBP/USD 1.2555 -5.3 1.2 3.3 -19.6 9.0USD/TRY 6.8455 15.1 -0.1 22.614.4

-4.9-6.4

6.9USD/RUB 69.73 12.3 -2.0 9.6 13.0 14.2USD/JPY 107.01 -1.6 -0.9 -1.6-1.2

5.6USD/CHF 0.9487 -1.9 0.1 -4.6 -1.8 6.7EUR/CHF 1.0666 -1.7 0.2 -3.1-0.2

30d volatilityEUR/USD 1.1244 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.4 7.01.4

3.20 6.90 2.70 1.90

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 1m 1y6m

-1.70 0.90 1.10 0.601.40 3.10 1.60 2.10

2.90 1.60 2.90-1.70 1.10 2.00 2.40

-2.45 2.44 1.60 2.100.30

03/2020 03/2018 06/2019 06/2018-1.50 3.40 0.60 1.20-2.30 2.30 0.60 2.30

2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.9

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.1

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MARKET MONITOR

Stocksas of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility

10'202 -4.7 -4.0 2.9 8.2 20.43'267 -13.9 -10.3 -5.8 -9.3 30.0

12'382 -7.5 -4.6 1.6 9.5 31.9282 -10.9 -10.2 -3.3 3.2 23.1

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility26'120 -9.5 -7.6 -2.8 47.7 32.7

3'113 -4.4 -3.5 4.5 48.0 27.39'911 9.0 8.3 21.2 93.3 25.1

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility22'456 -3.2 -3.2 4.3 9.1 26.424'481 -14.2 -7.0 -11.9 -0.6 26.9

4'018 -3.2 NV 4.8 5.3 15.3

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility995 -10.8 -6.4 -4.1 10.3 19.7

YTD Indices: 5 Year Indices:

Commodities Energy in USD as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility

38.2 -34.9 -25.9 -32.0 -38.8 52.040.8 -35.1 -26.7 -33.9 -40.6 44.5

Metals in USD as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility1'727.0 13.8 8.7 22.2 57.6 12.9

17.5 -1.9 -3.0 7.6 18.4 26.3823.5 -14.8 -14.3 -4.8 -16.3 25.1

WTI Crude Oil per barrel in USD Gold per troy ounce in USD

Brent Crude Oil

GoldSilverPlatinum

1m-2.7-1.2

1m-3.0-3.9-0.7

EMEASMIEuro Stoxx 50Dax

WTI Crude Oil

Euro Stoxx Small 200

AmericasDow JonesS&P 500 Nasdaq

Asia/PacificNikkei 225HK Hang SengSH Shenzhen CSI 300

Emergin MarketsMSCI Emerging Markets

1m1.61.00.6

1m1.20.4

1m0.80.2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 SMI Nikkei

01/2020 02/2020 03/2020 04/2020 05/2020 06/2020 07/2020

1020304050607080

2016 2017 2018 2019 20201000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MARKET MONITOR

Stocksas of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility

10'202 -4.7 -4.0 2.9 8.2 20.43'267 -13.9 -10.3 -5.8 -9.3 30.0

12'382 -7.5 -4.6 1.6 9.5 31.9282 -10.9 -10.2 -3.3 3.2 23.1

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility26'120 -9.5 -7.6 -2.8 47.7 32.7

3'113 -4.4 -3.5 4.5 48.0 27.39'911 9.0 8.3 21.2 93.3 25.1

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility22'456 -3.2 -3.2 4.3 9.1 26.424'481 -14.2 -7.0 -11.9 -0.6 26.9

4'018 -3.2 NV 4.8 5.3 15.3

as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility995 -10.8 -6.4 -4.1 10.3 19.7

YTD Indices: 5 Year Indices:

Commodities Energy in USD as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility

38.2 -34.9 -25.9 -32.0 -38.8 52.040.8 -35.1 -26.7 -33.9 -40.6 44.5

Metals in USD as of 17.6.2020 YTD (in %) 6m 1y 5y 30d volatility1'727.0 13.8 8.7 22.2 57.6 12.9

17.5 -1.9 -3.0 7.6 18.4 26.3823.5 -14.8 -14.3 -4.8 -16.3 25.1

WTI Crude Oil per barrel in USD Gold per troy ounce in USD

Brent Crude Oil

GoldSilverPlatinum

1m-2.7-1.2

1m-3.0-3.9-0.7

EMEASMIEuro Stoxx 50Dax

WTI Crude Oil

Euro Stoxx Small 200

AmericasDow JonesS&P 500 Nasdaq

Asia/PacificNikkei 225HK Hang SengSH Shenzhen CSI 300

Emergin MarketsMSCI Emerging Markets

1m1.61.00.6

1m1.20.4

1m0.80.2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

01/2020 02/2020 03/2020 04/2020 05/2020 06/2020 07/2020

1020304050607080

2016 2017 2018 2019 20201000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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BENDURA BANK AG

Schaaner Strasse 279487 Gamprin-BendernPrincipality of Liechtenstein

BENDURA BANK AG

Schaaner Strasse 279487 Gamprin-BendernPrincipality of Liechtenstein

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BENDURA BANK AGWe are successfully operating as a private bank in Liech-tenstein for 21 years. Our advisory groups are organized according to language regions (German, English, Italian, Spanish, Russian, Czech, Polish, Turkish, Mandarin, Can-tonese, Serbian, Croatian, Slovenian and Hungarian). Measured by profit after tax, we are in 4th place among 13 Liechtenstein banks. 41 top performers of our company hold 15% of the business shares of our institute.www.bendura.li

Montres Corum SàrlSince 1955, Corum has adopted creativity and boldness as its guiding principles. It is pursuing the path traced by the founders, more loyal than ever to the iconic collections, while enriching them with a powerful modern touch bear-ing the hallmark of innovation and technical breakthroughs. The Bridges collection has been making its mark on watch-making history for over 30 years.www.corum.ch

Le Mirador Resort & Spa - Health CentreLocated in the heart of Switzerland’s UNESCO heritage vineyards, the Mirador Resort & Spa transports you to a summit of beauty and serenity. Nestled in an idyllic natu-ral setting affording breathtaking views, Le Mirador Health Centre is a true oasis of tranquillity offering a range of tech-niques, treatments and activities essential to maintaining inner balance.www.mirador.ch

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