HQ U.S. Air Force AcademyI n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n

c e

BCT Cumulative Attrition Report: Class of 2015

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

31 Aug 2011

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

BCT Attrition – CL2015

Executive Summary Projected and Actual Cumulative by Cohort Cumulative by Gender Class Trends (2010 – 2015) Cohort Trends (2010 – 2015) Resignation vs. Turnback

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I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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BCT Attrition – CL2015Executive Summary

Overall Loss Rate 5.5% (62/1137) Previous 5-yr avg: 4.3% Primary Factor: Turnbacks 37.1% (23/62) Secondary: Career Goal Change 29.0% (18/62)

Cohort Attrition:

• CL14 Turnbacks: 56% (10/18) returned to CL15; 5-year avg: 54.2% • 30% (3/10) of CL15 re-entry left again as Turnbacks during BCT Calculations include International Students

Cohort # Left Cohort # Attrition % Previous 5-year Avg

Men 43 880 4.9% 3.9%

Women 19 257 7.4% 5.8%

Ethnic 11 330 3.3% 3.2%

PPQ 27 585 4.6% 4.3%

Rec Athlete 15 254 5.9% 4.1%

Prior Service 1 47 2.1% 2.8%

USAFA Prep 6 187 3.2% 1.7%

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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CL2015 BCT Attrition: Projected & Actual

Total 1137 1 22 31 49 55 62Men 880 1 13 20 33 38 43

Women 257 0 9 11 16 17 19

NOTE: Projections and BCT entry include International Cadets.

Cumulative Losses

Entered Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Cum1-yr Projection 1137 1136 1134 1114 1104 1103 11015-yr Avg Projection 1137 1134 1121 1106 1096 1092 108810-yr Avg Projection 1137 1131 1111 1094 1084 1080 1077Actual 1137 1136 1115 1106 1088 1082 1075

1050

1100

1150

Projection based on C/2014 BCT rates

Actual Class Strength Projection based on Last 5-yr Average× * Projection based on

Last 10-yr Average

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

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BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cumulative by Cohort

Total Men Women Ethnic/ Racial

PPQ USAFAPrep

Rec Ath Prior Svc

Entry 1137 880 257 330 585 187 254 47

Resignations (3.3%) Career Goal Change Environmental Adjustment Hardship Pressure to Attend

391814

16

29151103

103313

85201

197903

55000

95400

11000

Turnbacks (2.0 %) 23 14 9 3 8 1 6 0

Cumulative Losses 62 43 19 11 27 6 15 1

End Strength 1075 837 238 319 558 181 239 46

Cumulative Attrition Rate 5.5% 4.9% 7.4% 3.3% 4.6% 3.2% 5.9% 2.1%

NOTE: Includes International Cadets.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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NOTE: Includes International Students.

Male (+1.0%) & Female attrition (+1.6%) above previous 5-year averages

BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cumulative by Gender

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%

4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9%

Cumulative BCT AttritionMales

Class

Attri

tion

Rate

(Incl

udes

Tur

nbac

ks)

Previous 5-Yr Avg = 3.9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%

6.7% 8.2% 3.4% 6.1% 4.4% 7.4%

Cumulative BCT AttritionFemales

Class

Attri

tion

Rate

(Incl

udes

Tur

nbac

ks)

Previous 5-Yr Avg = 5.8%

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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BCT Attrition – CL2015 Class Trends (2010 – 2015)

NOTE: includes International Students

C/2015 cumulative attrition above the 5-year average (+1.2%)Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Cumulative Attrition

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%

5.5%

BCT Attrition by Week with Cumulative TotalsCLASS 2010 CLASS 2011 CLASS 2012 CLASS 2013 CLASS 2014 CLASS 2015

Attriti

on R

ate

Witn

in C

lass

(inclu

des T

urnb

acks

)

Cumulative Previous 5-yr Avg = 4.3%

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

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BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cohort Trends (2010 – 2015)

NOTE: Includes International Students .

All Cohorts except Prior Service are higher than previous 5-year averages

Women Ethnic PPQ Rec Ath Prior Serv Prep0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

7.4%

3.3%

4.6%

5.9%

2.1%

3.2%

5.8%

3.2%

4.3% 4.1%

2.8%

1.7%

C/2010C/2011C/2012C/2013C/2014C/2015Prev 5-Yr Avg

Class

Annual Percentage

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BCT Attrition – CL2015Resignation vs Turnback

NOTE: Includes International Students.

Turnback attrition is higher than previous 5-year average (2.0% vs. 1.3%)

Resignations above 5-year average (3.4% vs. 3.0%)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Previous 5-Yr Avg-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

4.0% 2.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.1% 3.4% 3.0%

1.0%

2.4%0.6%

1.0%

1.3%

2.0%1.3%

Green = Resignations Blue = Turnbacks