HQ U.S. Air Force AcademyI n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n
c e
BCT Cumulative Attrition Report: Class of 2015
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
31 Aug 2011
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
BCT Attrition – CL2015
Executive Summary Projected and Actual Cumulative by Cohort Cumulative by Gender Class Trends (2010 – 2015) Cohort Trends (2010 – 2015) Resignation vs. Turnback
2/9
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
3/9
BCT Attrition – CL2015Executive Summary
Overall Loss Rate 5.5% (62/1137) Previous 5-yr avg: 4.3% Primary Factor: Turnbacks 37.1% (23/62) Secondary: Career Goal Change 29.0% (18/62)
Cohort Attrition:
• CL14 Turnbacks: 56% (10/18) returned to CL15; 5-year avg: 54.2% • 30% (3/10) of CL15 re-entry left again as Turnbacks during BCT Calculations include International Students
Cohort # Left Cohort # Attrition % Previous 5-year Avg
Men 43 880 4.9% 3.9%
Women 19 257 7.4% 5.8%
Ethnic 11 330 3.3% 3.2%
PPQ 27 585 4.6% 4.3%
Rec Athlete 15 254 5.9% 4.1%
Prior Service 1 47 2.1% 2.8%
USAFA Prep 6 187 3.2% 1.7%
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
4/9
CL2015 BCT Attrition: Projected & Actual
Total 1137 1 22 31 49 55 62Men 880 1 13 20 33 38 43
Women 257 0 9 11 16 17 19
NOTE: Projections and BCT entry include International Cadets.
Cumulative Losses
Entered Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Cum1-yr Projection 1137 1136 1134 1114 1104 1103 11015-yr Avg Projection 1137 1134 1121 1106 1096 1092 108810-yr Avg Projection 1137 1131 1111 1094 1084 1080 1077Actual 1137 1136 1115 1106 1088 1082 1075
1050
1100
1150
Projection based on C/2014 BCT rates
Actual Class Strength Projection based on Last 5-yr Average× * Projection based on
Last 10-yr Average
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
5/9
BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cumulative by Cohort
Total Men Women Ethnic/ Racial
PPQ USAFAPrep
Rec Ath Prior Svc
Entry 1137 880 257 330 585 187 254 47
Resignations (3.3%) Career Goal Change Environmental Adjustment Hardship Pressure to Attend
391814
16
29151103
103313
85201
197903
55000
95400
11000
Turnbacks (2.0 %) 23 14 9 3 8 1 6 0
Cumulative Losses 62 43 19 11 27 6 15 1
End Strength 1075 837 238 319 558 181 239 46
Cumulative Attrition Rate 5.5% 4.9% 7.4% 3.3% 4.6% 3.2% 5.9% 2.1%
NOTE: Includes International Cadets.
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
6/9
NOTE: Includes International Students.
Male (+1.0%) & Female attrition (+1.6%) above previous 5-year averages
BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cumulative by Gender
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%
4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9%
Cumulative BCT AttritionMales
Class
Attri
tion
Rate
(Incl
udes
Tur
nbac
ks)
Previous 5-Yr Avg = 3.9%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%
6.7% 8.2% 3.4% 6.1% 4.4% 7.4%
Cumulative BCT AttritionFemales
Class
Attri
tion
Rate
(Incl
udes
Tur
nbac
ks)
Previous 5-Yr Avg = 5.8%
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
7/9
BCT Attrition – CL2015 Class Trends (2010 – 2015)
NOTE: includes International Students
C/2015 cumulative attrition above the 5-year average (+1.2%)Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Cumulative Attrition
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%
5.5%
BCT Attrition by Week with Cumulative TotalsCLASS 2010 CLASS 2011 CLASS 2012 CLASS 2013 CLASS 2014 CLASS 2015
Attriti
on R
ate
Witn
in C
lass
(inclu
des T
urnb
acks
)
Cumulative Previous 5-yr Avg = 4.3%
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
8/9
BCT Attrition – CL2015 Cohort Trends (2010 – 2015)
NOTE: Includes International Students .
All Cohorts except Prior Service are higher than previous 5-year averages
Women Ethnic PPQ Rec Ath Prior Serv Prep0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
7.4%
3.3%
4.6%
5.9%
2.1%
3.2%
5.8%
3.2%
4.3% 4.1%
2.8%
1.7%
C/2010C/2011C/2012C/2013C/2014C/2015Prev 5-Yr Avg
Class
Annual Percentage
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
9/9
BCT Attrition – CL2015Resignation vs Turnback
NOTE: Includes International Students.
Turnback attrition is higher than previous 5-year average (2.0% vs. 1.3%)
Resignations above 5-year average (3.4% vs. 3.0%)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Previous 5-Yr Avg-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
4.0% 2.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.1% 3.4% 3.0%
1.0%
2.4%0.6%
1.0%
1.3%
2.0%1.3%
Green = Resignations Blue = Turnbacks