BCCIMacroeconomic

Indicators

BCCIMacroeconomic

Indicators

Source: Ministry of EconomySource: Ministry of Economy

Bulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on Track Economic growth of 4.5% in Q3 and 4.3% for the first Economic growth of 4.5% in Q3 and 4.3% for the first

three quarters: Bulgaria is among the leaders in Europethree quarters: Bulgaria is among the leaders in Europe Inflation of 3.8%Inflation of 3.8% Record high forex reserves: EUR4.56bn (November 2002)Record high forex reserves: EUR4.56bn (November 2002) Near record low external public debt for the first eleven Near record low external public debt for the first eleven

months: USD8.2bnmonths: USD8.2bn Robust growth in tourism revenues: 9.98% compared to Robust growth in tourism revenues: 9.98% compared to

20012001 Unemployment of 16.27%, a drop of 1.63% compared to Unemployment of 16.27%, a drop of 1.63% compared to

20012001 Current and trade account deficits to GDP ratios Current and trade account deficits to GDP ratios

improvingimproving Presence of “functioning market economy” (EC Report)Presence of “functioning market economy” (EC Report)

Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony from Abroadfrom Abroad

Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony from Abroadfrom Abroad

The Government’s economic program has received positive The Government’s economic program has received positive evaluation. The country’s credit rating has been raised on evaluation. The country’s credit rating has been raised on several occasions and currently stands at several occasions and currently stands at BB (with positive BB (with positive outlook)outlook) according to Standard&Poor’s, according to Standard&Poor’s, BB (with positive BB (with positive outlook)outlook) by Fitch IBCA, and by Fitch IBCA, and B1 (with positive outlook)B1 (with positive outlook) by by Moody’s). Japan Credit Rating Agency recently assigned Moody’s). Japan Credit Rating Agency recently assigned Bulgaria a rating of BB Bulgaria a rating of BB (with positive outlook)(with positive outlook). More rating . More rating upgrades are expected in 2003.upgrades are expected in 2003.

Support of the international financial institutionsSupport of the international financial institutions– the IMF approved a two-year stand-by agreement for SDR250mthe IMF approved a two-year stand-by agreement for SDR250m– the World Bank adopted a supporting strategy worth USD750m the World Bank adopted a supporting strategy worth USD750m

in totalin total– the EBRD launched a USD500m private sector financing programthe EBRD launched a USD500m private sector financing program

GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)

4.0 4.13.9

4.2

3.2

5.3

4.5 4.5

2.6

1.71.4

0.6 0.50.8 0.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 E

Bulgaria EU

20022001

Source: CANSTAT, EUROSTAT

CEE Countries (2002E)

1.0

2.52.7

3.53.53.54.0

4.4

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Bulgaria Hungary Romania Slovakia Croatia Slovenia CzechRepublic

Poland

Bulgaria

4.44.05.4

2.3

-5.6

4.0 4.8

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F

Source:EBRD, Ministry of Economy

GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)

Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)

Source: Ministry of Finance

16.7

13.7

12.211.5

7.5

8.9

15.1

0

5

10

15

20

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E

GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)

13.613.916.318.826.2

15.1

28.529.128.230.5

27.9

30.7

57.957.055.550.745.954.2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Agriculture and Forestry Industry Services

Source: National Statistics Institute

GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)

55.963.4 62.4 64.0 69.6 71.7 73.3

85.0

44.136.6 37.6 36.0 30.4 28.3 26.7

15.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F

Private Public

Source: National Statistics Institute

Annual Inflation Annual Inflation (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E) (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E)

Annual Inflation Annual Inflation (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E) (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E)

547.7

311.6

79.5

473.6

63.8

122.0

32.7

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

4.03.8

4.8

11.4

1.0

6.2

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F

Source: National Statistics Institute

Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Bulgaria

3.84.8

11.4

1.0

6.2

02468

1012

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: Governmental Sources and National Statistics Institute

CEE Countries (2001)30.3

9.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.7

05

101520253035

Romania Hungary Slovenia Slovakia Croatia Poland Bulgaria CzechRepublic

Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, 01/1998-01/2003)(%, 01/1998-01/2003)

Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, 01/1998-01/2003)(%, 01/1998-01/2003)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

2.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, Year-End)(%, Year-End)

Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, Year-End)(%, Year-End)

CEE Countries (2001)35.0

15.510.9 9.8

5.9 4.7 4.7 4.6

05

101520253035

Romania Poland Hungary Slovakia Croatia Slovenia CzechRepublic

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

3.30

4.654.635.084.46

0

2

4

6

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E

Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank

Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)

Source: Governmental Sources and Ministry of Finance

CEE Countries (2001)

-0.9-1.3-2.4

-3.3-3.5-4.4-4.5

-5.5-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%

PolandCzech

Republic Slovakia Romania Hungary Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria

Bulgaria

-1.2

0.0-0.7-0.7-0.9-1.1.-1.0

0.9

3.22.82.82.93.23.0

5.5

2.9

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003F 2005FBudget surplus/deficit, % GDPPrimary surplus, % GDP

Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)

3 207

2 613

3 7193 812

4 563

250

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

31.12.1998 31.12.1999 31.12.2000 31.12.2001 I-XI 2002

4 062

Eurobond Issue 12/11/2001

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)

10 625

10 409

9 602

10 892 10 914

11 202

9 000

9 500

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

Government DebtGovernment Debt(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)

Government DebtGovernment Debt(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

Maastricht criterion

58,1%

70,1%

77,1%

86,7%83,2%

105,1%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 September2002

129

132 133

142

118

123

117 116118

115114

106104

117

123

135131

129

125119121

133 133 131

135139

137

128129

135134

138135

100

110

120

130

140

150

Janua

ryFeb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

August

Septem

ber

Octob

erNov

ember

Decem

ber

2000 2001 2002

Source: National Statistics Institute

Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)

Source: EBRD

8800

5700

4100 39003500

2500

1400900 800

1380

30003000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

Sloven

ia

Poland

Czech

Rep

ublic

Hun

gary

Estoni

a

Lithua

nia

Slovak

Rep

ublic

Latvia

Roman

ia

Bulga

ria

Russia

Ukrai

ne

Annual Salaries (USD, Annual Salaries (USD, 20022002))Annual Salaries (USD, Annual Salaries (USD, 20022002))

Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement

Mid Management Professional Staff

Bulgaria

Romania

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Low average

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement

Mid Management Professional Staff

Bulgaria

Romania

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

High average

Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000

Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement

Mid Management Professional Staff

Bulgaria Average for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary

Low average

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000

Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement

Mid Management Professional Staff

Bulgaria Average for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary

High average

Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria

Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)

Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)

Source: Ministry of Finance and National Statistics Institute

21.1

8.4

11.4

16.9

19.0

16.6

20.4

8

12

16

20

24

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E

Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)

Source: Ministry of Finance

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F

GDP (BGN bn)

14.43 17.43 22.42 23.79 26.75 29.62 32.61 35.00

Real GDP growth (%)

-9.4 -5.6 4.0 2.3 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.8

Annual inflation (year-end, %)

311.6 547.7 1.6 7.0 11.3 4.8 3.8 4.0

Budget deficit (% GDP)

-10.4 -3.0 1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Jan-Nov

2002 2002E

Foreign debt (% GDP)

97.0 100.4 85.5 84.2 88.9 78.3 68.1 n.a.

Balance of payments (USD m)

-724 1,205 -95 96 137 373 672 200

Current account (USD m)

164 1,046 -61 -652 -702 -842 -450 -600

Current account (% GDP)

1.7 10.1 -0.5 -5.0 -5.6 -6.2 -2.9 -3.5

Trade balance (USD m)

122 321 -381 -1,081 -1,175 -1,580 -1,352 -1,500

Exports (USD m)

4,689 4,809 4,193 4,006 4,825 5,113 5,022 5,500

Imports (USD m)

4,568 4,488 4,574 5,087 6,000 6,693 6,373 7,000

Import coverage (months)

1.5 5.1 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.0 6.1 6.0

FDI (USD m)

109 505 537 819 1,002 694 429 500

Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)

Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy and Bulgarian National Bank