battle ground afghanistan english

8/6/2019 Battle Ground Afghanistan English

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Editor Editorial 0 :1Shahzad Masood Roomi Battleground Afghanistan 0 - 2

Asst EditorEmaad Khalid Presentation on WoT 16Editorial Board Synopsis of the Month 27Shehla ZafarMuhammed Sanaullah Pakistan and Saudi Arabia 35Graphic Designer Energy Crisis and Food Security 41Waqar Siddiqui

From Indus to Oxus

July: 2011Volume: 2 Issue: 2

Patron-in-chiefZaid Hamid

ContactB r a s s T a c ~

RawalpindiPh: 051-5598046-7Cell: 0321-5001370

Web: www.brasstacks.pkwww.zaidhamid.pkwww.brasstacks-media.blogspot.comwww.facebook.com/syedzaidzamanhamidE-mail: [email protected]

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The American Dream and the Afghan QuagmireDear Readers,)\ssalam-o-)\laiklU11Afghanistan is the heart of Asia and in the current unfathomably complex strategic scenario, anymajor development in this country holds serious strategic implications for the entire world. The alliedinvasion of Afghanistan, a decade ago, and now the withdrawal of the foreign forces from there wouldseriously affect the strategic milieu in the region. The US is now in a state oflimbo: Neither can itafford to continue the war that has brought its economy to the brink of collapse nor can it simply quitfrom Afghanistan for obvious reasons. The desire to control Eurasia in the 21 st century is too alluringto resist. America's military and political footprint, established inAfghanistan during the last decade,would be lost in case the US ends the war now. Subsequently, what is the future of this decade-longWoT? This is the overwhelming question that arises now as the future dynamics of regional peace andstability would be affected by the answer. This month's cover story is focused on the Afghan situationand the future dynamics ofthis war particularly from Pakistan's vantage point.This issue also includes a special analysis of Pakistan - Saudi Arabia relations and their strategicimportance in the light ofthe current turmoil of Arab spring. The entire Middle East is in serious crisisas it has become a target of geographical division on ethnic and sectarian lines. This orchestratedupheaval in the Muslim heartland is part ofthe Zionist imperialistic designs offorces like Israel. Beingtwo of the most important Muslim states, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share a common destiny and dutyfor the revival of Muslim Ummah and its lost glory. Unfortunately, despite having historical ties witheach other, both countries could not transform these relations into strategic strengths for the Ummah.This exclusive write up by Zaid Hamid examines the current and future discourse of Pak-Saudirelations in context of regional stability and Pakistan's own national security.This issue also includes an analysis of water and energy crisis that is now posing a direct threat to thevital strategic infrastructure and future economic development of Pakistan. According to the latestestimates, Pakistan is going to face severe water crisis in not a very distant future. Indian water wars onthe Indus and Kabul basins as well as local mismanagement and poor watershed management has putthe entire agricultural sector in a compromising position. The energy crisis has already gone out ofcontrol and there is no short term cure available. National leadership has indulged in shamelesspolitics of power grabbing and corruption while the government has failed to feed the masses let alonecompete in international markets. On the economic axis, small regional countries are performingbetter than Pakistan.)\ visionary, courageous and honest leadership can be the only savior of Pakistan in the current bleakscenario, everything else will automatically fall into place. May Allah bless this sacred land with aworthy, courageous and honorable leadership. Ameen

Shahzad Masood Roomi

IT]BrassTac~s


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Pakistan and the Future Dynamicsof the US War on TerrorBy: Zaid Hamid

"Asia is a body' built of clay and waterAfghanistan is the heart in this body.'lfAfghanistan is in turmoil, the 'whole of Asia ,..-ouldbe in TurmoilIf Afghanistan is in peace, the whole of Asia 'wouldbe inpeace. "(Allama Iqbal)Paradox within a Paradox:The above stunning, almost prophetic, geo-politicalvision of Iqbal is starkly visible today as the entireregion, especially Pakistan is faced with an existentialthreat from the Afghan theatre. While the rapid andviolent reshaping of the Muslim Middle East is beingorchestrated by the Neo-Cons in the mainland Arabworld, the occupation of Afghanistan by the westernforces is directly threatening the Muslim heartland inWest Asia, greater Khurasan and the Central Asianregions,Despite facing a massive high intensity,decentralized, imposed asymmetric 4 t h generation warwithin its own borders, Pakistan's Afghan policyremains fatally confused, disoriented and without anystrategic vision. This strategic confusion within thepolitical government has created an unprecedentedthreat environment in which the differentiationbetween friend and foe has been deliberatelyconfused through an orchestrated information warand psy-ops by the extra regional forces.

The irony isoverwhelmingly stark, the contradictionsparadoxical: Pakistan army is fighting a bloody andruthle ss insurgency backed by theUSINATO/India, simultaneously Pakistan is

also an ally ofthe western forces.

Pakistan had agreed to help the US in the waragainst Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda insideAfghanistan but the US has pushed the warinside Pakistan under theAf- Pak doctrine. Weapons, explosives and supplies to theinsurgents against Pakistan are beingprovided by the western forces fromAfghanistan, while their own supply linespass through Pakistan which also carry thelogistics for the insurgencies.

Afghan Taliban and other resistance groupsare fighting a war against the foreignoccupation forces but are not considered alliesby Pakistan. Karzai regime is a hostile enemy governmentbut treated as an ally by Islamabad. TTP is an insurgent group fighting againstPakistan but the US insists that Pakistan


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The new world war for 21" century began in Afghanistan!should only fight the Afghan resistanceinstead. Afghan resistance does not fight Pakistan andconsiders the TTP as a terrorist asset but doesnot fight the TTP as Pakistan does notrecognize the Afghan resistance.

Drones kill more pro-Pakistan Afghanresistance and Pakistani tribal civilians thanterrorists, causing serious damage toPakistan's interests but still Islamabad allowsthe attacks as amatter of policy.

The lSI and CIA are supposed to be allies butCIA is working systematically to decapitatethe premier Pakistani secret service and aviolent war rages between the two spyagencies under the facade ofcooperation!

India wages a ruthless war, supportingmultiple insurgencies in FATA andBaluchistan through Afghanistan but Pakistancontinues to engage India in "peace" process.India also continues to block Pakistani watersand also supports urban terrorists of MQM

andANP inKarachi.Under this most bizarre, complex, dangerous andconfused geopolitical threat scenario, Pakistan is ledby the most corrupt, compromised and dysfunctionalregime in its history, further creating a leadershipcrisis in times of war. In the last 4 years of this regime,


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not a single debate has been initiated on the Afghanpolicy which addresses the above core issues. Thepolicies of the Musharraf era are being pursued,which had brought this brutal war upon Pakistan inthe first place. Still, the leadership cannot decide howto extricate Pakistan from this war despite over50,000 dead and wounded, both from the armedforces and the civil society, in the last 4 years alone.The entire country has been turned into a battleground but still the regime does not plan any policyanalysis on the Afghan theatre and the threatsemerging from it. The "strategic blindness" of theleadership has created an existential threatenvironment for the state and the nation.A decisive solution to the Afghan crisis has to befound NOW! As the crisis has almost metastasizedbeyond control, the treatment would also be radical,harsh, and even ruthless but for the sake of regionalpeace and national security, it will have to bedeployed with cut throat lethality.Three critical factors must be understood clearlybefore any analysis and solution of the Afghan crisisis given: The Extra Regional forces are part of theproblem and NOT the solution of it. Therecan be no peace as long as the foreign forces

are occupying Afghanistan.

The solution to the Afghan crisis does not liewithin the Afghan theatre of war but withinthe region - in the hands of the countriessurrounding the Afghan theatre.

The US and NATO do not have the militaryand economic capability to open any otherhigh intensity, Iraq-styled theatre of waragainst Pakistan. Pakistan controls thejugular ofthe extra regional forces!

The Geo-Politics:Almost 18 months ago, at West Point MilitaryAcademy, US president Barack Obama stated:"It must be clear that Afghans will have to takeresponsibility for their security, and that Americahas no interest infighting an endless war inAfghanistan. "Obama seemed to be stating that the US really wanted

to bring this 10 year long vindictive WoT to an endand wanted to leave handing over the fate of thecountry to its indigenous owners. But what camealong with this announcement was a more aggressivedoctrine of Af-Pak which not only has devastatedAfghanistan but has also pushed the war deeper intoPakistan. During his address, president Obama alsoannounced a surge of 33,000 more troops forAfghanistan.Although, US has announced a limited withdrawal ofits forces from Afghanistan, but what does this"withdrawal" actually mean in the long term regionalsecurity perspective? What were the stated goals ofthe US war in Afghanistan? How far was the Af-Pakdoctrine successful in achieving its stated goals?Where does the war stand after 10 years? And whatare the future dynamics of this war from Pakistan'ssecurity point of view?The search of objective answers to these questionsinvites us to dissect this decade long war inAfghanistan and examine it both at strategic andpolitical vortexes along with its long term regionaland global ramifications.To start with it is essential to understand that the statedUS goals in the region are entirely different from herreal objectives. The detailed comparison between thetwo is critical to understand and predict the futurecourse ofwar on Pakistan's western borders.Disrupting, dismantling and deteriorating the abilityof Al-Qaeda and their allies (Taliban) to launch anyfurther attack onUS was stated as the primary missionobjective by the US government after 9/11. But thisstated aim was a mere smoke screen to veil the real


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long term strategic plans of the US for the region.The Grand strategic Objectives of the US for the 21 stcentury are:1. Defense and Security of Israel for whichPakistan must be de-nuclearized and

dismembered and Iran must be prevented frombecoming a nuclear power.

2. Control of global energy corridors, energyresources, pipelines and trade routes.3. Containment of Political Islam as an ideology.4. Control of global water ways and Oceans.S. Containment ofRussia.6. Containment of China.All these unstated grand strategic objectives make itcritical for the US and the Western powers to occupy,control and dominate Afghanistan and then to push thewar into Pakistan for a "Yugoslavia" solution."Balkanization of Pakistan" is a critical part of thisentire scheme. The imposed 4 t h generation war alongwith its entire spectrum of threat axis on political,economic, media and military is designed to createthis state failure in Pakistan to muster a globaljustification for "securing" Pakistan's nuclear assetsby an international coalition led by the UN or US.In this new great game, Pakistan is also in the middleof what many analysts call "Pipelineistan wars". PepeEscobar fromAsia Times writes:

"Pakistan is an energy-poor, desperate customer ofthe grid. Becoming an energy transit country isPakistan's once-in-a-lifetime chance to transitionfrom a near-failed state into an 'energy corridor' to

Asia and, why not, global markets. "After nearly one and half years of Af-Pakannouncement, it has become clear that the realpurpose of this doctrine was not to stabilizeAfghanistan but to destabilize the entire region bypushing the conflict into Pakistan. This doctrine is justa means for the US to meet its aforesaid strategicobjectives particularly the one related to "fixing"Pakistan.Lately, there is a realization among Pakistan's militaryestablishment regarding the devastating impact of theAf-Pak. Pakistan army and intelligence apparatushave been pushed into an endless fight against aobscure and ruthless enemy who has been attackingPakistan from Afghanistan since years now. On theother hand, the CIA and JSOC (Joint SpecialOperations Command) covert operators, under thediplomatic cover, are working to frame Pakistan in thenext 9/ll-like scenario. Consequently, not only thediplomatic relations between Islamabad andWashington are getting worse but also the intelligenceties between the lSI and CIA have hit rock bottom aswell. What used to be termed as merely a conspiracytheory is now being proved as a real conspiracy!The US and NATO forces have also been paying aharsh price for this failed and flawed doctrine since thelast two years. Official death toll of foreign occupyingforces has risen to 2600 and the US forces havesuffered most of these fatalities. The fatalities withinthe private contractors of Blackwater and Xe Services


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are not included in these official figures. Also, thenumber of the wounded and mentally wrecked troopsrendered unfit for military service is never given bythe US and NATO army.But all this is just the tip of the iceberg! All the majorUS forces' operations in Southern and centralAfghanistan have met with complete failure. Thetactics of prolonged guerilla warfare employed by theresistance have out maneuvered the occupation forcesinAfghanistan. The entire country, including Kabul, isunder the threat or control of the Taliban and otherresistance groups or criminal warlords. The Taliban 1.are also in control of all critical routes as well. Thesituation is so desperate that in some provinces eventhe coalition forces are forced to pay the warlords andTaliban commanders for a safe passage of theirsupplies, almost to the tune of $400 million per year,flooding the resistance with cash to carry on theresistance!The American fatalities in Helmand province presentan eye-opening account of how catastrophically theUS operations have suffered there. During the first 7years, till 2008, the total number of US troops killed inHelmand was 177, while in last two and half years, thisnumber has gone up to 543; almost 3 times morecasualties in 1I3fd of the time.The Americans had bet on the wrong horse in thepolitical arena as well. Despite the acknowledgementofKarzai's corruption by the US president in 2009, heis still enjoying the fake power in Kabul under the USumbrella as there is no other willing puppet availableto the US to replace him; just another reason to makethe Americans desperate for any kind of military

A noth er V ietn am in th e m akin g!

achievement!

During the recent weeks, there have been some criticalchanges which are reshaping the Afghan warenvironment. The Pak-US relations are in the woodson the entire axis as both the countries are desperate toprotect their own interests. For Pakistan, a verychallenging environment is in the making on thewestern theatre!The Af-Pak Theatre Environment:

In a desperate bid to push the war intoPakistan, the US and NATO are pushingPakistan attack

~NDI IA

A R A B I A NSEA


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hundreds of militants into Pakistan in regularcross border raids from the Kunar province.Fierce clashes are taking place in Mohmandand Bajaur regions of the tribal areas. Themilitants are supplied with massiveammunition, weapons and logistics from theAfghan side. NATO has removed their ownsecurity posts from the region to the west sideof Kunar River and has allowed freemovement to the militants to carry out raidsinto Pakistan. The Pakistan army has capturedtruck loads of millions of rounds of brand newammunition of AK-47, 12.7mm, 14.5mm,82mm Mortars, 75mm recoilless rifles andRPG- 7's. The massive supply line of TTPinsurgency runs uninterrupted from theAfghan side, fully backed by theCIA/RAWlRAMA. Pakistan continues tofight a high intensity war within its ownborders across the entire region in FATA.Pakistan army has not yet crossed the borderinto Afghanistan in hot pursuit ofthe militants.Artillery fire has been sent across the borderoccasionally but ironically often responded bythe US and NATO forces against the Pakistanipositions. The TTP militants continue to havesafe havens on the Afghan side close to thePakistani border, under the protection of USand NATO forces. No drone strike or fire hasever been brought upon the TTP positions bythe USINATO forces in Kunar or elsewhere.The treachery and betrayal of the US is mostnauseatingly vivid in this theatre.

2. Pakistan has expelled some of the US militarypersonnel from the country after the USSpecial forces made an incursion into Pakistan 4.on May 2nd In response, Washington has cutPakistani military aid. This move has failed toserve its purpose and is going to backfire forthe US. To add insult to injury, China hascompletely blown away the American psy-opsby openly coming forward and announcing allthe required cooperation with Pakistan. TheUS is now re-considering its decision to cutmilitary aid to the Pakistan army.

3. With the deteriorating Pak-US relations, theAmerican desire of making Pakistan take theownership of WoT is also frizzling out

ignominiously. As Pakistan has decided tofight the war with its own resources, now theoperational strategy will be Pakistan's own aswell. This is yet another challenge for the USas their entire exit strategy revolves aroundputting blame of their failure in Afghanistanon Pakistan. Now Obama administration isdesperately trying to sell the idea that Pakistanhas taken the ownership of WoT during thePak-US strategic dialogue. The CIA is equallydesperate to get its feet back in Pakistan. Theirlatest policy is to placate Pakistan byproviding a little more information about theon ground CIA operators in Pakistan.Previously, these operators were workingunder diplomatic cover; a failed policy whichcreated serious diplomatic and PR crisis forthe US.As the war continues to go wrong on all axes in


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the Af-Pak theatre, panic is rising in the ranksof the US decision makers. Mixed signals arebeing given by the Obama administrationregarding the future plans in Afghanistan.Some circles are eying the 2014 as the finalcut-off date while others are hinting about alonger delay. Right now, the US is not in theposition to prolong the war anymore and that'swhy Pakistan is being framed as the corereason for the failure of WoT. Recentannouncement of withdrawal is compulsion.NATO allies are also drawing down theirtroops. Canada and France have alreadyannounced the pull out.

S. Within the US, the sinking economy is aserious concern for the Obama administration.Economic managers are asking for 25% cut inthe US defense budget for the next year buttwo active wars, thousands of miles away fromhome, are demanding vast economic resourceswith no success on ground.

6 . "We can't simply lop off 25 percent off thedefense budget overnight," President Obamasaid recently while replying to his economicadvisors. "We have to think about all theobligations we have to our troops who are inthe field, and making sure they're properlyequipped and safe." According toAsia Societyfor Social Improvement and SustainableTransformation, the US war spending canincrease tomore than $4 trillion.

forces. ANA ranks are heavily penetrated bythe Taliban and there is reported pilferage ofthousands of weapons and millions ofrounds of ammunition from the force, mostlyending up in the hands of the Taliban.

8. The US military commanders are alsocompletely confused over the situation. Thedisagreements between the militarycommanders and political leadership are in theopen now. The firing of General McChrystal isa case to note. The US commanders havehinted at a conditional withdrawal followed bythe hope of a smooth transition whereas all the

7. Political measures taken by the US inAfghanistan are also in tatters. The USefforts to form a broad based allied regime inKabul have not paid any dividend so far asthe Taliban have not abandoned theirdemand of complete and unconditionalwithdrawal of all foreign forces. Now theAmericans are eyeing the Afghan NationalArmy (ANA)'s strength to help sustain anallied regime in Kabul but this plan is alreadya disaster. ANA has an on paper strength ofnearly quarter of a million troops but inreality, their training as well as their loyaltiesremain suspect and unreliable. They havenever been able to hold their ground againstthe Taliban without the support ofthe foreign ~;I,,--:r:~~'1lii;f.;o!l~LiL~iiii.:l~"'~J~i;Iiir".;aI~~~if,lI~~_"4IM'~i lEl. lJIt .t iI-l 'I 'W.. l: ii l . l ii iIUlh, :I Il t. l~Ll~FL~ruli .j :i :f .

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Helmand and Kandahar border Baluchistan not NWA, still death toll there is more thanthe North Eastern province bordering NWA.

odds are against the allied forces inAfghanistan. According to GeneralRodriguez, ISAF commander since 2007, "Aswe move forward with the plan, the transitionwill continue to be condition-based". He alsosaid that he believes that the transition is ontrack, and that the coalition and Afghan forces 10.can achieve the 2014 goal of complete Afghansecurity responsibility along with the plannedUS troop drawdown.

9. The propaganda about the intervention inAfghan areas from North Waziristan Agency(NWA) is another psy-ops by the US. The USofficials have been mounting pressure on thePakistan army to launch a full scale militaryoffensive in NWA to dismantle the Haqqaninetwork and other groups with whom thePakistan army had signed peace agreements inorder to cut down their intervention inAfghanistan. But the statistics of the ISAF

fatalities in Afghanistan point in a differentdirection. ISAF forces have suffered morecasualties in the Southern provinces ofAfghanistan than in the North-Easternprovinces bordering Pakistan's NWAregion.Afghanistan is an extremely complex countryin its pure social and political incarnation.Creating a supportive government is thebiggest challenge for the US and there is noteven a remote chance of success in sight in thisregard. Even the US forces' commanders arewell aware of the situation. The most criticaltask facing the coalition, according toRodriguez is to "support good Afghan leadersand encourage them to build depth within theirranks, and inspire other leaders to join inhelping create a hopeful future." The tribalsystem of Afghanistan has its own complexdynamics and the ISAF forces have failed tounderstand them. The US wants to westernizethe Afghan society through western political


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system but this move will always be faced withstiff resistance both physically andintellectually.The US objective to encircle China and Russiarevolves around establishing a nuclear missiledefense shield in Eastern Europe so that theUS is able to intercept any ballistic missile onits way to the American coasts. There is clearfriction between NATO and SCO on the USmissile defense program as the deployment ofthis missile defense shield would be in a veryclose proximity of the Russian border. Underthe Russian pressure, in 2009, PresidentBarack Obama shelved a Bush administrationproposal to station 10 missile interceptors inPoland and a radar facility in the CzechRepublic. The Americans are now movingtowards a newer plan of completing the task bydeploying the system on the Aegis destroyersand cruisers. But still the US would requiresome installations in Romania and Polandwhich would again annoy the Russians. Sixmember states of the SCO have alreadyexpressed their concern over this ambitiousAmerican plan. "It could harm the strategicstability and international security," theymaintained after a collective stance on theissue. Now Russia and China have signed analliance to oppose the US ballistic missiledefense program - BMD. For China thissystem can serve the US interest as a strategicmodel which, if successful in Europe, wouldbe replicated anywhere in the world against

the Chinese strategic weapons. This Chinesethreat perception includes India aswell.

1. The Iranians are also averse to the Americanpresence in the region. The Iranian securitysituation has remained restive particularly inthe Eastern provinces as the American trainedand funded Jundullah carried out multiplesuicide attacks in the region. Now Iran hasopenly warned Pakistan against the USintentions of harming Pakistan's nuclearprogram. The CIA suffered a major setbackwhen Pakistan and Iran joined hands againstJundullah and dismembered the organization.

2. India remains the only regional player whodesperately wants the Americans to stay inAfghanistan. But this insistence is not for theWoT but to protect the Indian investment inAfghanistan through which RAW is wagingmultiple wars inside Pakistan. India has alsoestablished a well organized spy network inAfghanistan behind Pakistan's back, workingthrough the Indian trained Afghan secretservice RAMA and the Karzai regime. TheIndians are extremely nervous about thepossibility of an American withdrawal fromAfghanistan.

Pakistan and the Future dynamics of WoT:The fate of the Afghan war is in the hands of Pakistan.But at the moment, Pakistan stands on very thin icedue to the staggering strategic confusion which theleadership has towards this threat and the theatre ofwar. Pakistan does not have a single friend inAfghanistan today. The relations with the Americansare extremely tense and even hostile. The Karzairegime is the extension of Delhi as per hostility andbetrayals. The Afghan Taliban and other resistancegroups are not hostile towards Pakistan but are notwilling to support or defend Pakistan at this stage. TheTTP are based inAfghanistan and continue to use theirUS protected base areas to wage a war against thePakistani state.NATO supplies continue to pass through Pakistan.Drone strikes also continue with impunity. CIAcontinues to run JSOC operations inside Pakistanpenetrating all organs of the state, media and political


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Pakistan destroyed USSR in Afghanistan.Today's US fate is also in Pakistan's hands.

parties. Only the lSI and the army are resisting the CIAas well as the TTP but their capacity to resist remainsextremely incapacitated in the absence oforganizational support from the government,judiciary and the media. This is not just a staggeringpolicy failure but also reeks of betrayals within thehighest levels of the government and society. Despitebeing in a state of urban decentralized war, the matteris not being treated as an existential crisis but as a locallaw and order issue to be dealt with local policeofficers and corrupt judiciary.The pressure continues to rise on the Pakistan army asthe TTP adopts even more aggressive and ruthlessways to wage their war against the state. Now theenemy combatants are attacking enmasse from acrossthe border and trying to control villages and territories

within Pakistan. The recent surge of attacks in Dir andthe military operations in Mohmad and Kurramregions are a manifestation of this newly deployedstrategy.The Pakistan army has to fight at two hostile frontssimultaneously: The Militants on ground are waging a high

intensity war within the mainland. The CIA/US army, which are waging a covertwar under the facade of alliance and militarycooperation. The CIA/JSOC teams areactually running a parallel intelligence andcovert operations network within Pakistanworking on a collision course with thePakistan army and lSI and underminingPakistan's national security and nuclearprogram.

Hostile "allies" ? - The CIA-lSI war rages on!

In the presence of a corrupt and compromised regime,hostile media and an incapacitated judiciary, the oddsare heavily against the army and the lSI. The presentreactive response strategy deployed by the army canonly stabilize the situation temporarily and buy somemore time for the State and delay the strategy of theenemies but it cannot win the war or change thestrategic profile of the regional theatre. Pakistan willcontinue to take losses and the army and lSI wouldalways be taking hits as the initiative of surprise wouldalways remain with the urban insurgents.


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Asking the Right Questions:In order to win this war, to crush the insurgencieswithin Pakistan and to stabilize Afghanistan InPakistan's favor, Pakistan will have to deploy anaggressive and comprehensive response strategy.Before we give our recommendations for such aresponse strategy, we would like to answer somefundamental questions which are always raisedwhenever the Afghan solution is discussed. Thesequestions and their correct answers would form thebasis of Pakistan's response strategy towards thistheatre ofwar.1. Question: Is it possible to have peaceful and 4.

stable Afghanistan in the presence of ExtraRegional forces in that country?

Answer: Impossible! Foreign forces are the rootcause of the crisis and not the solution for it. The entireregion and Pakistan is in a state of war because offoreign forces in Afghanistan. All strategies andoptions which are sincere and serious about peace inAfghanistan must demand an immediate andunconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces.2. Question: Given the present political and

economic conditions in the country, how canPakistan negotiate favorable terms with theUSand NATO and seek a withdrawal ofERF?

Answer: Pakistan can make life difficult for the USand NATO at present but cannot negotiate decisivelyin the presence of this corrupt government inIslamabad. The regime in Islamabad is the reason forthe state's multiple organ failures and catastrophicdebacles in this war. The regime change in Islamabadis as critical as fighting the insurgency and CIA onground.3. Question: Even if Pakistan has a patriotic

government in Islamabad, how can Pakistanforce the exit of ERF from Afghanistan andbring about afavorable solution?

Answer: The solution to the Afghan crisis lies notwithin Afghanistan but in the region. Pakistan willhave to make a solid stand along with China, Iran,Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the crisis. The US and

NATO cannot resist such a regional, political anddiplomatic alliance on Afghanistan. The Chinese andIranian stand is identical to that of Pakistan. SaudiArabia does not have its ownAfghan policy and wouldsupport Islamabad under all circumstances for a broadbased government in Afghanistan. The Russians canalso be asked to join the regional group in order toevict the foreign forces. The question of Muslimpeacekeeping forces can also be agreed upon withinthe regional Muslim countries. Pakistan can achievethis seemingly impossible diplomatic mission throughaggressive diplomacy. Regional powers and the SCOgroup are not happy with the ERF presence inAfghanistan.

Can Pakistan use the NATO supplies asleverage in negotiations and even block thempermanently?

Answer: Sure Pakistan can. This is the most strategicstranglehold which Pakistan has on the NATO'sjugular. NATO has not found any reliable alternate toits supplies from central Asia or Iran. The staggeringcost of transportation from central Asia makes it amission impossible. Almost 82% supplies and 65%fuel for NATO goes from Pakistan. A stronggovernment in Islamabad can create enoughdiplomatic pressure, through the allies in the region, touse the NATO supplies as a leverage to demand atimeline and an exit plan ofthe ERF from Afghanistan.A f g h a n s u p p i , ' r a l u t e sNAro&iMlII~ tItlw~lrid,~~,~ .fm m ','.I :i;a ;I~ ~ # I!)~iiI ~~ @~ ~!I~$,Oli ~~~m$i~l ! ! ! i i ! i ~ ; n tm a j o r r o ! l ~ e . . . . . . . . . I P D ~ e I 1 r 1 i a ~ 1O u te " '~


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NATO supplies are also the biggest source oflogistical support for the insurgencies againstPakistan. Thousands of "lost" containers insidePakistan are delivered to insurgents and terroristgroups by NATO contractors. There are serious andcritical reasons for Pakistan to block the NATOsupplies.5. Question: Can the US and NATO attack

Pakistan if Islamabad blocks their supplies orbecomes totally hostile on Afghanistan? Canwefight them?

Answer: The US and NATO do not have the capacity,the will, the economic strength or the military muscleto attack Pakistan! The war is going horribly wrong forthem in Afghanistan. Their domestic economies arecrashing under the burden of major wars in Iraq andAfghanistan. They have opened new fronts in the

Middle East. Their supplies pass through Pakistan.Almost 150,000 US, NATO soldiers and privatecontractors would starve to death or would be totallyimmobile sitting ducks without fuel within a week iftheir supplies are blocked from Pakistan in case of awar against Pakistan. They simply do not have theman power and reserve troops to wage another Iraq orAfghanistan or even Libya styled war againstPakistan. Pakistan can be harsh with them on all axesand control their jugular. This is not post 9/11scenario. Now we can be harsh on them and we must.6. Question: What kind of a government can we

have in Afghanistan? Should we bring backthe Taliban? How would we assure peace inthe country? What will be thefate of Northern

alliance, Tajiks, UzbeksandHazaras?Answer: All regional countries and Pakistan agreethat there should be a broad based government inAfghanistan. The Taliban had made the strategicblunder of waging a war against all other non-Pashtunethnic communities in the country. This catastrophicpolitical blunder later invited Western forces into thecountry. Pakistan has strong influence over thePashtun groups. Iran has influence over Tajiks andHazaras. Turkey is also closer to Taliban as well as theNorthern Alliance groups. These Muslim countriescan bring the Afghans to a table and convince them toforge unity within their ranks. Once the foreign forcesare out and the Muslim nations and regional countriestake responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan under abroad based and peaceful government, this seeminglyimpossible task would be achievable. The AfghanTaliban are more moderate now and seem to havelearnt their lesson but they will not come tonegotiations as long as ERF are present in the country.Even if there are difficulties in bringing Afghanstogether politically once the ERF are gone, still thewar which is flowing into Pakistan and destabilizingthe nation would stop. All base areas and supportinfrastructure of the TTP and insurgencies would beeliminated once the ERF and India are ousted from thecountry. Historically the post 1992 Afghan civil wartells us that even when the Afghans were fightingamongst themselves, they were not destabilizingPakistan, Iran or the region. The Taliban era inAfghanistan was the most peaceful one fromPakistan's perspective as there were no drugs,insurgencies or weapons flowing into Pakistan fromthere. The presence of the ERF and Indians inAfghanistan has turned that country and the region


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into a cesspool of wars, drugs and insurgencies. TheERF and the Indians must be thrown out urgently byall possible means; the rest ismanageable.7. Question: Should we not try to stabilize

Pakistan first before we attempt to interveneand stabilize Afghanistan? Pakistan isfragmenting and is under attack. Can weafford to get involved in Afghanistandiplomatically, economically and evenmilitarily?

Answer: Pakistan is destabilized and under attackbecause Afghanistan is in turmoil. Afghanistan is inturmoil because there are ERF in that country. Thesolution lies in removing the ERF and gettinginvolved with the help of regional friendly nations tobring peace in that country. Peace in Afghanistan willstop all support to insurgencies, terrorism andmilitancy in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot bestabilized as long as terrorists have safe havens inAfghanistan and are backed by CIA/RAW.8. Question: If the Americans leave now, there

would be instability in Afghanistan. Isn't itnecessary that the Americans must stay inAfghanistan till the country is stabilized andonly then they should exit?

Answer: Afghanistan is destabilized because of theAmericans and foreign forces in that country. The

ERF can never stabilize the country as the experienceof the last 10 years has proved. The war is goingagainst the occupation forces and they must leaveimmediately in order to calm the resistance. TheTaliban and Afghan resistance are willing to accept aninternational and Muslim mediation for peace talksand power sharing but their pre-condition remains thatthe foreign forces must leave Afghanistan first. Theresults of war so far prove that the foreign forces arepart ofthe chaos and notthe solution of it.9. Question: Can Pakistan armyfight and defend

the country alone against insurgencies andCIA under the present political, economic andmedia environment?

Answer: Pakistan army and lSI can stabilize thesituation temporarily and win many battles but cannotfight and win the war without diplomaticmaneuvering, political support, media psy-ops or theregional support of the friendly nations. The warstrategy presently deployed by the Pakistan army isreactive in nature not pro-active or aggressive in orderto take the war to the enemy. Pakistan has not evenentered Afghanistan in hot pursuit of the terrorists norcultivated any assets inside to neutralize the threatacross the border.The presence of the USINATO forces inAfghanistan,their operations inside Pakistan under Af-Pak andstate organ failure in Pakistan, all are creating a state


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dysfunction rapidly within Pakistan. The situation isgetting untenable by the day. The strategy of the CIAand JSOC is to create maximum state failure inPakistan in the coming days before they are forced toleave the region. Their covert grand strategic objectivewas to create security crisis in Pakistan in order tojustify the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. This is theirmost critical mission objective but they have notachieved it yet. In the coming days, more and moreruthless and high profile attacks would be launchedagainst the lSI, Army, nuclear installations and thecritical state infrastructure to achieve this objective ofstate failure. The US is desperate to achieve its covertobjectives and would be very ruthless against the stateof Pakistan and its armed forces in the coming days.The final word of caution and advice:

When the Geneva accord was signed in 1988 betweenthe Pakistan government and the Kabul regime, theentire Afghan resistance was kept out of it and wasabandoned. Despite having fought for 10 years andsacrificing over a million Afghans, the entireresistance was betrayed and left in the lurch. The resultwas a bloody civil war in Afghanistan for the nextdecade. The Geneva accord was a blunder of historicproportions which completely compromisedPakistan's entire stakes and interests in Afghanistan.Despite supporting the resistance for 10 years,Pakistan could never have a friendly government inKabul while Afghanistan remained in a catastrophiccondition of state failure. It was only during theTaliban era, from 1996 to 2001, that Pakistan hadsome form of a friendly government in Afghanistan.There were no insurgencies in Pakistan during thatperiod and the Taliban had ousted all Indian assetsfrom the regions under their control. Now Pakistanmust NOT repeat the blunder of the Geneva accordand the post Afghan war era.In future, the Americans and NATO would not be ourallies but Pashtun resistance and people ofAfghanistan would be. Our present allies wouldchange but our neighbors are permanent. Pakistanmust never forget this.Pakistan cannot abandon the Afghan resistance nowunder any form of exit plan of the foreign forces andmust make sure that a friendly and cooperativegovernment is placed in a stable Afghanistan. TheAfghans themselves do not have the capacity to

resolve their differences. They need help of friendlyand Muslim nations from within the region. This iswhere Pakistan has to take the lead role.India is already planning a strategic role inAfghanistan. They are aggressive, pro-active andalready present on ground. Pakistan must snatchAfghanistan from them.While Pakistan fights multiple insurgencies within itsborders, it also has two mammoth challenges at handnow for which the entire strength of politics,diplomacy and military must be deployed with fullforce and wisdom: Force the foreign forces to leave Afghanistan

within the shortest possible time. Make sure that Afghanistan gets a stable

friendly broad based government with peace inthe country.

Americans do not want to leave Afghanistan. They aresimply buying time. Pakistan will have to force themto exit and also make sure that they do not leave a messbehind them. This is the real challenge.This is NOT post 9/11 scenario. The Americans havebeen defeated in Afghanistan. Their economy at homeis in shambles. Their military humiliated and in noposition to wage another war. Pakistan can now fullystand up to the Americans and ask "Are you with us oragainst us?" If they are with us, they will have to dowhat we tell them to do. Else, we must do with themwhat we did to the Soviets. We have done it before. Wecan do it again.

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PresentationonWAR ON TERRORZaid Hamid


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Synopsis o f the MonthBy: Zaid Hamid

Eastern Front:Pakistan army is now under severe attack and not juston the battlefronts but also internationally and in thelocal media as well. All CIA and RAW backed assets inthe local and international media as well as the politicalopponents in national politics have launched a viciousanti-army campaign which is directed at destroying theonly institution which is holding this country together.The campaign is so intense that it actually caught themilitary leadership by surprise. PML(N) are simplybehaving stupidly, venting their rage against the armyand playing right into the game plan being orchestratedby the CIA and RAW.Pakistan is now surrounded on three hostileaxes on ground:1. The USINATO which are waging a war inside

Pakistan under Af-Pak to cripple the state fromwithin. The entire Afghan war is being sent intoPakistan. Even the top US diplomats areacknowledging this behind closed doors.

situation deteriorates enough within Pakistan toincapacitate the Pakistani armed forces. The Indianstrategy is to bog down Pakistan army within itsown borders inmultiple high intensity wars tomakeit impossible for Pakistani forces to respond toexternal threats.

3. Insurgents and Terrorist gangs are waging a ruthlessurban war from Karachi to Khyber crippling thenational economy, governance and the law andorder social fabric. TTP, BLA and MQM are theprime CIA/RAW assets for the mission.

Apart from these physical theatres on ground, the war isalso being waged on 3 additional axes against the stateand the armed forces.1. Economic collapse is being orchestrated and funds

of army and lSI are being blocked by the PPPregime.2. Media and information war has been launched.3. Creating a judicial collapse to prevent any legal

2. Indian battle groups are ready under their Cold-Start remedy for the imposed war and insurgencies.doctrine to enter into Pakistan the moment the Unknowingly, the Chief Justice has joined this


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onslaught against the forces in judicial overactivism, further demoralizing the armed forces. Inthe last 11 years, not a single terrorist has beenpunished through the judicial system and thegovernment as well as the Supreme Court does notseem serious at all in addressing the issue.In that case, NATO's supply lines would be disrupted asthe entire present logistical operations are carriedthrough Karachi port. The US and NATO would needan alternate port which is away from mainland Pakistanand is the shortest route toAfghanistan. Gawader is theideal port for these operations. The US and NATOwantto take control of Gawader in case Karachi gets out ofhand or NATO supplies are disrupted. China's controlof Gawader is Pakistan's safest bet. In that case, anyattack on Gawader would be an attack on China. This iswhere the PPP regime comes in handy for the CIA. TheZardari regime refuses to give Gawader to Chinadespite strong pressure from the armed forces.Pakistan army and security establishment will have tofight a multi prong war in the coming days to defend notjust the country but also their own honor and prestige.The only solution is the regime change in Islamabad elsewe should expect urban wars and anarchy in the comingdays. Pakistan is already in a state of undeclared war -invaded by internal and external enemies working on acomprehensive 4 t h generation war. These areunprecedented threats where Pakistan urgently needsallies inthe region. China, Iran, SaudiArabia and Turkeyare the natural choices.Pakistan and India are now once again trying to takebaby steps to initiate their broken dialogue process. Thewhole exercise remains a farce and a facade only withno real practical progress expected at any level. WithIndians waging a high intensity 4 t h generation waragainst Pakistan, peace remains a fantasy only. The fakereality of Pakistan-India talks was exposed byWikileaks as well when the US fears were expressedover possible water wars between Pakistan and India.India could either block Pakistani waters in cropseasons or release excess floods during monsoons. Lastyear also, the Indians released water from the damsconstructed on Pakistani rivers flooding one fifth of thecountry. This year also, it is feared that the Indianswould repeat the exercise to flood the country again. Anembarrassment for India which Pakistan has failed tocapitalize on is the trial of the Hindu extremists whowere responsible for burning alive almost 50Pakistanis. India had accused the lSI and Pakistan armyof orchestrating this bombing which actually turned outto have been committed by the Hindu radicals. The trial

has already started but Pakistan has not yet increasedpressure on India as Indians have been doing onPakistan for Mumbai. This is the clear and obviousfailure of Pakistan's foreign policy which India alwayscapitalizes on.Pakistan can never let its guard down when dealing withthe Indians. Indians are masters of deception and havealways betrayed its friends when they had theopportunity. The entire Indian focus is on engagingPakistan in "peace talks" on the one hand and supportinginsurgencies and media wars against Pakistan on theother. The Indians are aggressive at the moment andwould not be giving any concession to Pakistan even ifthe so called peace talks materialize, a completely uselessexercise fromPakistan's perspective.In a classic deceptive move taken right out of theChankya doctrine, while India remains at war withPakistan on all axes, it also continues to engage thePakistani leadership on the "peace" initiative. ThePakistani foreign office does not even have a foreignminister in these critical times and the Indians are fullyinvolved in taking advantage of this major weakness ofPakistani diplomacy. The corrupt and incompetentPakistani regime remains toothless and spinelessagainst India aswell.The regional and bilateral environment is going India'sway so far. They do not want to spoil the leverage andadvantage they have within Pakistan. While theyremain most heavily engaged in supporting wars,terrorism, insurgencies and urban unrest inPakistan andalso pretending to be engaged in peace talks, they arecautious not to spoil this arrangement which suits theirinterests now. The compromised PPP regime is notblaming Indians for any violence or wars insidePakistan. Indians want to maintain this status quo anddo not want tempers in Pakistan to rise against India.After the Mumbai attacks when India blamed Pakistan,the entire Pakistani nation galvanized to respond in aunited manner to India. Pakistani response and show ofunity had actually shocked the Indians. Now the Indiansdo not want to take such a chance. The Indian strategy isto concentrate on spreading sectarian, ethnic, religiousand provincial hatred within Pakistan. If India takes ahostile posture against Pakistan, this will unite thePakistani nation against their arch rivals. This isinteresting to note that despite a series of blasts in India,the regime inDelhi did not blame Pakistan for them.The Indians are not just waging multiple insurgenciesagainst Pakistan they are also deploying a viciousdiplomatic and economic war against the country at the


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global level. The Indian and CIA backed 4 th generationwar against Pakistan is designed to cripple the nationaleconomy, engage the nation in high intensity wars andspread political, sectarian and military anarchy. WhilePakistan does not even have a foreign minister, theglobal diplomacy is dominated by the Indians. Pakistancontinues to suffer while the PPP regime remainscriminally negligent in protecting Pakistan's interests.India remains the biggest national security threat forPakistan on all axes. The so called "peace initiative"remains a smoke screen only.Within Pakistan, the Indians have fully opened anotherfront now - launching MQM and ANP in Karachi in awar against the state and the people. This is the urbanwar designed to draw the army into Karachi for a totalcollapse of the Pakistani state and igniting a civil warbetween the army and the urban insurgents. This is theBenghazi scenario where civilian rebels revoltedagainst the state and then NATO was quick to move theUNSC and military power to support them against theforces and state of Libya. MQM and ANP are wagingthis urban war to draw in the army. The media is alreadycompromised and attacking the para military forces andRangers of HR violations. The US and NATO arewaiting for the urban war to get heated.

Only Pakistan army can bring the situation undercontrol in Karachi but not through a military action orcurfew but through targeted elimination of terroristelements within the urban centers. Smart operationsagainst the known assassins are the only way to cleansethe city.MQM is a fully armed terrorist mafia cult readyto wage an urban war. Itis already threatening the stateof Pakistan. MQM has its own vulnerabilities also andcan be decapitated easily as their leaders are identifiedand known both within the country and in UK. MQMwould be using extreme measures through dialogue and

even violence to resist the cleanup in Karachi. It isgoing to be messy to rid the country of this cancer andthe Indians would be fully exploiting this new threataxis against Pakistan.Interior Minister Rehman Malik finally revealed whatnobody expected him to say - foreign hand andweapons being deployed in Karachi urban war. It isclear that now the army and lSI are pushing him tospeak the truth. But still, he would not say who isreceiving those weapons or acting as instruments offoreign secret services. He is himself known to be closeto CIA and MI6 and for him to give such a statementmeans that the lSI has given him solid proof of thisforeign involvement which he cannot deny now.In the days to come Pakistan will have to rely evenmoreheavily on China as relations with US continue todeteriorate and India continues to destabilize Pakistan.To make matters worse for US and India as well,Pakistan starts to visibly align itself with Iran also inmatters of economic and military cooperation.Pakistan's closest relations with China were bad enoughfor the US. Now even with Iran, Pakistan seems to bewarming up cordially. This is the US nightmare that aregional block of Pakistan, China, Iran, Saudi Arabiaand Turkey is created to take matters into its own handespecially on the US presence inAfghanistan. Pakistanarmy has already started to push the PPP regime toachieve its ends. The Army is not taking over thisregime but is making sure that these planted CIA assetsare forced to do exactly what the army and nationalsecurity demands.Western Theatre:The US wants Pakistan to fight its war. The Pakistanarmy has refused to follow the US dictation, thus the USsuspended military aid to Pakistan. The Pakistan army


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says it can manage without it. The lSI chief goes to theUS to convey this tough message. The US is frustratedand can only launch more psy-ops within the local andinternational media to increase pressure on Pakistanarmy. The war between lSI and CIA rages on.The lSI wants a greater role in Afghan affairs, controlover CIA assets operating inside Pakistan and theremoval ofIndian intelligence and military assets fromAfghanistan which are supporting insurgencies insidePakistan. The CIA has also created huge intelligenceand terrorism assets within Pakistan through unbridledCIA operations supported by the PPP regime. After theOsama Bin Laden drama, the lSI has taken a firm lineand the US is forced to give concessions but isextremely unhappy about it. Pakistani lSI has thecapability and the will to choke the US war insideAfghanistan just as they did to the Soviets. The USknows the powers of the lSI and is extremely nervousabout it.While the US continues to hard bargain with Pakistan,targeting the army and using the military aid as leverageto bring Pakistan army to its knees, the PPP regimeremains subservient, compromised and docile; henceits aid is not affected. The foreign office of Pakistanremains in denial while the US continues to getaggressive by using the aid blockade as leverage againstthe Pakistan army.There is a reason why the US is highly frustrated withPakistan. Not just that the US is losing inAfghanistan, ithas also not achieved the objective of destabilizingPakistan! Bush had handed over this mission to Obamaand now even he is leaving while the mission is stillunaccomplished. Obama has not achieved even a singleobjective set for him by the neo-cons.As the Afghan war enters its most critical and decisivephase, the US tries to engage the Afghan Taliban indirect talks, preparing the ground for buying time whilethe army makes one last attempt to crush the resistance.Talks with the Taliban are amedia facade and a strategicbluff. The US only wants to gain time and findloopholes within the Taliban resistance. The Karzairegime is taking direct hits and is not sustainable on itsown despite the perception given by the regime and theoccupiers.Afghanistan is the centre of gravity for all peace or warin the region. The solution to theAfghan crisis does notlie within the country but in the region where itsneighbors will have to decide the fate of that countryand the role of the foreign occupation forces. The extra

regional forces - USINATO/lndia - are the source of allchaos and anarchy in the country. The solution does notlie in keeping those forces inAfghanistan but remains inwithdrawing those forces and in finding a regionalsolution to the Afghan war. Pakistan cannot do it alone.Pakistan is the most affected country and has beenthrown into a high intensity war within its own bordersdue to foreign occupation of Afghanistan. Pakistan hasthe highest stakes in having a peaceful Afghanistan andmust take the strongest initiative both withinAfghanistan and in the region to bring peace in thatcountry. But again, to achieve this grand strategicobjective, a regime change in Islamabad remains ourmost critical and immediate need. Unless the Pakistanarmy does not bring about this regime change at home,no regional policy or strategy can be deployed solidly.Meanwhile, the relations between Pakistan and Unitedstates are under unprecedented stress and continue toremain volatile, even hostile. There are desperateattempts, even threats by the US to bring Pakistan'smilitary under control but the Pakistan army remainsdefiant. The US desperately needs Pakistan not just forlogistic supplies to Afghanistan but also for anypossibility of peace deals with the Taliban. The US alsowants to remain engaged with Pakistan in order toachieve its most critical objective of Balkanization ofthe country on ethnic, religious and political lines. TheYugoslavia doctrine is being fully deployed againstPakistan and Pakistan army remains the only hurdle inthis US objective. The entire Afghan operation and thesupport to insurgencies and drone attacks insidePakistan are designed to create a failed state in Pakistanwhich can be projected as dysfunctional tomaintain andkeep the nuclear weapons. The ultimate aim of theAfPak doctrine is to de-nuclearize Pakistan, despitestrong resistance by Pakistan army. The mistrust levelsin Pakistan are all time high now and theUS is desperateto stay engaged. The US is now actually resorting tothreats ofmilitary attacks aswell as economic sanctions


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toput pressure on the army.It is a marriage which is breaking up. For the last 11years, the US had been waging a secret war againstPakistan under the facade ofWar on Terror. The Obamadoctrine of Af-Pak actually meant that now the Afghanwar would be shifted to Pakistan. The Joint Specialoperations Command and CIA had been creating terrorand insurgent assets like TTP, BLA and MQM since thelast decade for the day when they decide to launch Af-Pak inside Pakistan. The US drone strikes are an integral~art of this war which is meant to ignite hatred and angerin the Pakistani tribals against the army and Pakistanisociety. The US drones are attacking those tribals whoha~e peace deals with Pakistan army or are Afghanresistance, TTP assets are not targeted by the drones.Th.erow.between the lSI and CIA is now at a boilingpomt. WIth a compromised PPP regime in Islamabad,the US had thought that they will have a walk over inPakistan, but they had totally miscalculated the role,resolve and intentions of Pakistani armed forces andlSI. Now there is a massive diplomatic and media warlaunched by the US administration and CIA against DGlSI and Pakistan army. Pakistan army is responding inkind. That is why the US wants the removal ofISI headGeneral Pasha and is orchestrating a vicious mediacampaign against the army and the security forces. Itisall connected to the resistance being offered by thearmy to the American and Indian game plans. Pakistanarmy is making it very clear that they are not happy withthe way the US is exploiting the WoT to underminePakistan's national interests. The US frustration is quitevisible.To calm a very angry Pakistan army, the US is workingon the PPP regime to bypass the military establishment.Hamid Karzai is another stooge being deployed at thisstage .t? exploit his clout within the Zardari camp.Karzai is a stooge of the US with no inherent powers in

his hand. He has close relations with Zardari and isworking to find ways to bypass the militaryestablishment to achieve the US objectives.The US and CIA along with the Indian RAW andAfghan regime have now waged a total war on thePakistan state. Massive attacks are being carried outinside Pakistan both by NATO and the Afghan armyusing the TTP militants as front line assets. NATO postshave been moved closer to Pakistan border and attacksare being carried out on Pakistani positions. Also, theAfghan army is pushing more and more militants intoPakistan.The reality is that Karzai is involved in waging amassive high intensity war inside Pakistan allowingUSINATO and Afghan army to attack Pakistanipositions to clear the way for TTP terrorists in order tooperate in the tribal areas. Whenever Pakistan armybegins to gain ground in the tribal areas, the Afghan andNATO troops give safe passage and access to the TTP towithdraw into Afghanistan and re-group and re-organize. All these attacks originate from the Afghansoil. Pakistan is now finally getting impatient with thecorrupt and compromised Kabul regime and is takingthe matters into its own hands to check infiltration ofterrorists fromAfghanistan.Pakistani armed forces will keep on fighting a reactivewar inside Pakistani borders as long aswe have this PPPregime in Islamabad and US presence inAfghanistan. Itis a self inflicted wound on the Pakistani state whichMusharraf gifted to the nation and now the PPP insistsupon continuing. The internal threats exist because theexternal threats support them from Afghanistan andIndia. There is no way Pakistani armed forces can winthis war without addressing the external factorsorchestrating the internal threats.Pakistan's firm stance is now sending the right messagesto the US leadership. The reality that Pakistan is a mostcritical player inAfghan affairs and can make life hell forUS forces is now beginning to dawn on Mr. Obama. Wesee some serious damage control effort to salvage theirrelationship with Pakistan.Tocounter the US pressure, Pakistan continues to showits closeness with Iran, sending shudders inW_ashington.Both Iran and Pakistan have the capability,WIll and the clout within Afghanistan to assureAmerican exit. Now both nations are exerting pressureon the Kabul regime to align it with the regionalcountries and abandon the western forces inAfghanistan. The developments in Tehran are a


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nightmare for the US and have given great leverage toPakistan to deal with the US pressure. These are newstrategic developments in the regional conflict. But.thereality is that this PPP regime is fighting a war agamstPakistan itself. Hussain Haqqani is Pakistan'sambassador to theUSbut in reality is a known CIA assetworking overtime to facilitate the US secret service.This has created major security crisis in Pakistan anddeteriorated the relations between the Pakistanimilitary and the PPP government also.Another concern of NATO is the sporadic attacks ontheir oil supplies inside Pakistan. Though these attacksare less in number and intensity but the threat of a fuelblockage always remains high on NATO's concerns.This is the strategic leverage which Pakistan has on theUS war effort inside Afghanistan. If the supplies areblocked for even a week, the entire US army inAfghanistan would come to a grinding halt.To add pressure on the US, Pakistan army isnow askingthe US to vacate the air bases and reduce the CIA staffworking in the country. The US is resisting tooth andnail but may not be able to do so for long under intenseanger in Pakistan and pressure from the Pakistani armedforces. Already many air bases have been taken awayfrom them and hundreds of CIA staff have been forcedto leave. The war between the spy agencies is gettingbitter and hot.After the Osama Bin Laden drama, the US is nowpreparing the media environment for framing Pakistanon Mullah Omar also. This is a classic psy-ops wherePakistan isbeing held responsible for all the US failuresinAfghanistan and also giving license to theU~ to carryout OBL styled raids. This media and information war ISa sure sign of the shape of things to come. Pakistan isagain being framed. Even Osama's own fam_ilydou?tthat OBL was killed in Abbottabad. The entire mediawar is based on lies and deceptions just as Iraqi WMDbefore the gulf war.Obama's Af-Pak doctrine can now be seen in full actionwhere the war has been pushed into Pakistan. The USwar cabinet is directly monitoring these latestdevelopments and controlling the intensity of waragainst Pakistan. But as long as US supply lines aredependent upon Pakistan, it cannot wage a full fledgedwar on Pakistan. That iswhy finding an alternate supplyroute from Central Asia remains critical for the NATOand US. This is easier said than done for the US. Thecost of finding an alternate route through central Asiawould be staggering and also it would mean takingtransit facilities from Russia. Russian has so far not

allowed military hardware to pass through its lands. Theoption of air transport is also extremely expensive. TheUS would not be able to find the alternate route fromcentral Asia but would ultimately target the port ofGawader.The entire Middle East isbeing re-shaped now. Silently,large Muslim states are being broken into smallernations. Every Muslim land in the Middle East andAfrica is in turmoil. The UN acting as extension ofUSINATO is fully onboard this dismemberment plan.Pakistan is proving to be a very tough nut for the US andNATO to crack. While nations and their politics aswellas geography isbeing re-shaped inma~ters~fmon!h~ inthe greater middle East, Pakistan IS still resistingferociously since the last 11 years. Pakistan is the onlyIslamic power with nuclear weapons and the lastfrontier for the Muslim world. While the neo-consrapidly re-shape the Middle East, Pakistan continue~ toblock their advance in the Muslim heartland. There IS areason why the CIA wants to destroy lSI and Pakistanarmy. The PPP regime is not a hindrance to the USplans. In fact it is awilling collaborator.Political/Economic Axis:Corruption, deception and diversion but not addressingor handling the real issues is the hallmark of thegovernment, judiciary and the opposition, literallysending the country to dogs! Media and PML(N)remain busy in bashing the army and creating falsealarms over national issues. MQM is playing snakeonce again. PPP regime has opened up multiple frontsnow but continues to survive through CIA backing anddisunity of the opposition parties. MQM is nowcornered in Karachi. They are seriously concerned butalso threatening of civil war if the government or the


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army takes action against them. After deaths of almost100 people in gang warfare in Karachi in 3 days, nowthere is comparative peace as Rangers and governmentmove to clip the wings of MQM. The restoration ofCommissioner system in Sindh has scarred theexecutive clout ofMQM and they have vowed to resist.MQM is now openly demanding a separate provinceand then a separate country for themselves. The selfexiled leader of MQM is a hard core criminal andmurderer protected by the MI6 and CIA and has aBritish nationality. He is being kept as a backup asset toblackmail Pakistan army and to create an urban war inKarachi when the US and India choose to choke andblock Pakistan. This week, the interior Minister hasfinally acknowledged that foreign weapons and secretservices are involved inKarachi riots.Once threatened and under pressure, MQM is nowtrying to please the army and seek support of the lSI.Traditionally, MQM is the worst enemy of army andlSI. But now after being surrounded from all sides andtaking hits in recent unrest, MQM shrewdly tries to winover the army and lSI's support. This will not happen asthe army and the lSI are aware of the separatist andcriminal nature of this traitor party.There is total and complete confusion in Pakistanipolitics now and not a single party or even theiralliances have the capability to rise to the nationalchallenges. It is a cesspool of corruption and betrayal.Parties are struggling to hold on to this sinkingdemocracy, also preparing for the next elections if theyare ever held. Meanwhile, they remain busy m

corruption, implementing IMF policies and crushingthe national economy and backbone of the commonman despite the fact that the nation is in a state of war.This is literally "Nero fiddling as Rome bums." Thenational economy is being run by the IMF while therulers remain busy in corruption by all means possibleunder the sun.Ministry of Information spending billions of rupees insecret funding to orchestrate anti anny campaignsthrough compromised journalists. Corruption remainsalive and kicking as ifthere isno tomorrow with highestlevels of offices keeping embezzled assets abroadwithout declaring them to the tax department or thestate.This is a failed regime which is failing the state as well.Every day, the cost of survival is rising as even theSupreme Court seems to have been compromised. Nowit is the army or nothing! The odds are getting heavierand stronger against the armed forces. The patriots inmedia and the youth desperately try to regroup andcounter attack to offer support to the armed forces. Thebattle is on, big time!Once again, we insist that the regime change is the onlysolution before the entire state melts down into a bananarepublic. It is almost there already if it were not for thearmy, If the army does not make amove now to stem thestaggering corruption, it should be prepared to burythousands of more officers and men who are so bravelyand desperately fighting an imposed war. The choice isnow for the army leadership to pick the timing of theregime change or wait for the system to collapse more.The system and the regime cannot be reformed.Sooner or later Pakistan anny will have to move in to theclear the mess. They have already delayed it to dangerouslevels. NATO, India, TTP, Afghan army, Media andMQM have all joined hands to declare an open war onthe Pakistani state. MQM is close to the US and Britainand plan to move UNSC if the army moves against it inKarachi. This is another Benghazi scenario in themaking. The more practical, workable and sustainablesolution is bringing in a regime change in Islamabad andreplacing this compromised government with a patrioticcaretaker setup which should focus on ending corruptionand terrorism. All other issues of governance andfinancial management would flow from this one singlestrategic move. Supreme Court has been too docile topose any threat to the enemies of the state. Now theburden falls on the Pakistan army once again to protectthe country against all threats - internal and external.


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This "democracy" is the worst anarchy Pakistan hasever seen. PPP leaders in Sindh are blowing hot andcold against MQM and the fascist Mafia party led byA1tafHussain continues to rob, loot, murder and pillagein the city tomaintain its blackmailing power.Desperate for political support, Zardari takes on hisown party leaders in attempt to appease MQM. PPPSindh is daggers drawn with MQM and Zardari ishaving a tough time trying to keep them under control.But it is not just MQM which is creating anarchy inKarachi. The ANP is another separatist and pro-Indianparty, fully backed by the CIA and RAW.They pretendto be at war with MQM but in reality their agenda is thesame asMQM - breaking up Pakistan. All their actions,politics and war is aimed at creating an ethnic war inurban Karachi.The most dangerous aspect of this corrupt democracy isthat the politics is now severely divided into provincialethnic lines leading towards separatist tendencies. ThePPP regime is partners in crime and do not have the will,capacity or the intent to unite the nation despite all thepolitical statements andmedia facade.Meanwhile the national governance and judicial systemcontinues to fall apart. The country does not have aforeign minister. The country does not have anambassador in Saudi Arabia, the most important ally inthe region. The state bank does not have a governor!!The entire system is now being run ad hoc from thepresidency where a corrupt man pretends to be thePresident and is robbing the nation as if there is notomorrow. They are literally making billions by justprinting the bank notes. This is one reason why thegovernor state bank resigned!The judiciary on its part continues to release terrorists,suicide bombers and murderers asneither the Police northe judges are willing to risk their lives by convictingthem. In fact, the entire pressure of the judiciaryremains on the security forces when the lawenforcement agencies take action against the terrorists.This political system cannot be reformed. Itcan only bereplaced. The judiciary has failed to deliver. In fact, it hasbecome a party in the chaos. Now there is additionalburden on the army. This regime must be removed beforeitbecomes beyond recovery even for the army.Internal Security and ThreatAxis:The Army continues to open new fronts and chase the

militants while the terrorists either melt intoAfghanistan or into the side valleys. The USINATO isoffering safe passages to the terrorists to fall back intoAfghanistan. Political parties remain oblivious of thethreats and continue to oppose the army actions. This isthe dilemma of the army that the nation, media and thepolitical parties have all been compromised.The urban war continues against the state and the armedforces as the ruthless TTP wages a sinister campaign.Pakistan army is busy clearing the areas from theAfghan infiltrators in the border regions. Once thestrongholds of the militants in South Waziristan weretaken over by the army, the militants went under theprotection of the Afghan army and the CIA ~n.sideAfghanistan. TTP is the most ruthless and sinisterterrorist group in the world backed by Indian RAW andCIA. The brutal ways it adopts to carry out its waragainst Pakistan is spine-chilling.In Baluchistan also, the BLA maintains its war, thoughof lesser intensity than that of the TTP. In Baluchistan,incidents of sectarian as well political violence werereported aswell. But the insurgents also suffered severelosses. Baluchistan remains a region of serious concernthough the security agencies have been able to cut downthe insurgency to some extent. But in the absence of ajudiciary, political will and national reconciliat~onBaluchistan remains simmering for the settlers, tounstsand the patriotic citizens.CIA continues its own war inside Pakistan. The CIA iswaging a vicious drone war inside Pakistan. Theobjective is to kill as many Taliban fighters as it canirrespective of collateral damage and civilian casua~t~es.Also, the secondary objective is to trigger an upnsmgagainst the Pakistan army and the lSI for failing toprotect its citizens. The insurgents and the terrorists arekilling as many civilians and troops as the CIA everyweek. CIA, RAW and TTP, along with BLA and ANPare waging a total war against the Pakistani State.

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P a k i s t a n a n dS a u d i A r a b i aStrategic Alliance for the 21st Century

By Zaid Hamid

Environment and History:The Middle East is being re-shaped; not just thepolitics but also the geography of the Muslim world ischanging according to the Neo-cons' vision for the 21 stcentury. Multiple Muslim governments are in theprocess of being systematically dismantled and statefailures are being created in many Muslim lands. Iraq,Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia are already either failedstates, under occupation or dismembered. At presentthe USINATO are busy ruining Libya and Syria and indestabilizing Egypt. Israel is already planning toexpand into the Sinai desert taking advantage of thechaos in Egypt. Once those theatres are contained,Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia would be targetedmore aggressively. Pakistan is already under animposed war.Pakistan is under a VICIOUS 4th generation, highintensity decentralized, urban war designed todisintegrate the state. The US and India are wagingthis war jointly primarily from Afghanistan. Multipleinsurgencies, corrupt CIA planted government,economic collapse, sectarian and religious violenceand a hostile media has isolated the country's armedforces who are desperately fighting to keep the nationintact. Pakistan's army remains a strong federatingunit and all nuclear weapons are safe and undercontrol. Pakistani patriots have started a counterattack in the civil society, media and armed forces tore-group, re-organize and defend the country with thesupport of the armed forces. The situation is beingbrought under control but the biggest hurdle remains

the present corrupt PPP regime. The Army does notwant to impose a martial law and is alone in fightingthe anti-State elements on ground and in the society.For Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia remain themost critical allies and regional nations. Iran hasrecently been engaged by the Pakistani patriots andnow the Iranian policy to a great extent has beenbrought in line with Pakistan's national security needs.Iran is a stable state with a powerful government and astrong army. The Neo-cons would target Iran later. ButSaudi Arabia is a matter of great concern for Pakistan.Historically, Saudi Arabia has been the strongest allyand a brotherly nation for Pakistan. The land ofHijazand Haramain of Makkah and Medina are in SaudiArabia making the country the spiritual centre ofgravity for Pakistan as well. The political, economicand security cooperation between Pakistan and SaudiArabia has been phenomenal. Over 1.5 millionPakistanis live and work in Saudi Arabia. Pakistaniarmed forces have been the most trusted and reliableasset for Saudi Arabia under all threat environments.


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Time tested friends!Pakistani brigades would normally be deployed inSaudi Arabia and Pakistani instructors and trainerswould always be in the Kingdom to support Saudiarmed forces. Pakistan has always remained a reliablestrategic ally for Saudi Arabia, providing even theultimate nuclear umbrella in case of an Israeli nuclearthreat to the Kingdom and to the Muslim holy cities ofMakkah Mukarramah and Medina Munawwara.There is no way any country can attack Saudi Arabiaas long as the Pakistani armed forces are intact andavailable to defend the holy lands. Subsequently, ifSaudi Arabia were to be attacked, dismembered oroccupied, Pakistan and the Pakistani armed forceshave to be neutralized, engaged and dismembered.This is precisely the reason for waging the presenthigh intensity 4 t h generation war against Pakistan bythe CIA, NATO and the Neo-cons.The Saudi leadership is most uncomfortable with thePPP regime and Zardari. The biggest headache for theSaudis at the moment is that their relations with thepolitical government in Islamabad are at an all timelow despite having excellent relations with thePakistani armed forces. Saudis want a stable and

strong government in Islamabad. For the last manymonths Pakistan does not even have an ambassador inSaudi Arabia.India on the other hand is aggressively pursuing itseconomic and diplomatic interests in Saudi Arabia.Indian government is fully exploiting Saudi fears ofUS economy and is inviting almost $600bn of Saudiinvestments into India. The Indian workers have nowexceeded Pakistan for the first time in history toaround 2 million in the Kingdom. Indian businessmenare investing heavily in the Saudi markets in hotels,shopping malls and services. The Indian ambassadorto Saudi Arabia has recently been awarded the highestSaudi award for improving relations between Indiaand Saudi Arabia.The ThreatAxis and the Analysis:The re-shaping of the Middle East and the toppling ofthe regimes in the Arab world has created a genuinethreat for the Saudi Kingdom and the house of Saud.For the first time in the last 90 years, the house of Saudis unsure about its survival and is in a vulnerableposition, fearing a public uprising and toppling oftheir regime through internal and external factors.Saudi Arabia faces threats from multiple axes:

Internal dissent and uprising as in Egypt,Tunisia and Syria etc. King Abdullah has justannounced a massive $28bn package for thenation to calm the masses against anypossibility of such an uprising or rebellion.Massive discounts, salaries, pensions and jobshave been offered to the Saudis.

Shia insurgency and rebellion in Easternprovinces. This is the reason they had toactually send in forces to suppress Bahrainriots basically to prevent a Shia takeover ofeastern Saudi regions. The Shia factor inYemen is also creating threats for them. Iran isbeing viewed as the major enemy statefomenting violence, rebellions and unrest inShia majority areas. Saudi - Iran relations areat all time low and they themselves have alimited capacity to resolve their mutualdifferences. The rebellion in Bahrain hassomewhat frizzled out and now the Saudis are


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making substantial efforts to reach out toTehran in order to arrive at a point ofreconciliation.

The rebellion in Yemen - This is also drawingthe Saudis into another local war in the region.These tribes are not Shias but more like thereligious fanatic terrorists of TTP in Pakistanwho are waging a war both against the Yemengovernment and the Saudis. Saudi armedforces have taken serious losses there and now

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there is an urgent need to protect this axis.Many Pak army trainers are present insouthern regions of Saudi Arabia training theirarmy for mountain warfare. The Saudis aresupporting the government of Abdullah Saleh,who is wounded and under treatment inRiyadh.

The American connection: It is now beingviewed as betrayal by the Saudis as well,exactly as it had proved for Hosni Mubarak.The Americans have already launched thesoftening up operations on the Saudi society

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through control of media and economy andreshaping the social fabric of the Saudi nation.A subtle but deadly media war has alreadybeen launched in order to criticize the Saudi

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leadership and to create internal dissent withinthe population.

Fratricide within the house of Saud .Americans are deviously maneuvering andplanning to bring about their favorite man asthe next Saudi leader, bypassing the senioritychain. Consequently leading to a civil waramong the princes, resulting in thebalkanization of the Saudi Arabian powerstructure. This is the most probable scenario asthe two senior most leaders have health issuesand the Americans want to bring a favorableman to the top.

The division within the Arab world is not helping theSaudi cause aswell. Syria supported the Shia rebellionin Bahrain in support of Iran. Qatar is supporting therebellion against pro-Saudi President Saleh in Yemenand also against the anti-American Qaddafi in Libya.One Saudi friend used the word "majnoon", insane,for actions of Qatar adding that it will bring downeveryone in the region.Saudis are currently in a state of rapid damage control.


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Ipantialftlllco;u:kNews Sport I Commenit I Cu~tu~e Business Money I Life & style . r , , , . , , > 1/',',.: J I"'W': V"'iK'1I ..w.. ~p ~ a .1 "... ;L rD a'Yemeni president in Saudi hospital with'extensive' iujuries from palace attackS e ve re b um s a n d s hr ap rle l w o un ds -'I !\I tI ic h r eq uir e c os m stlcI S llJ r g e rv - reduce l ikelihood o f Sale' ! ) r e U J r n i n g (0Ye'fnen

On the diplomatic level, they are expanding the GCC,asking the Kings of Jordan and Morocco to join t~eGulf common security and defense pact. The Saudisare also reaching out to Iran whereby the latter iscautiously responding.Military force is already being deployed with somesuccess against the hostile tribes in Yemen and therebels in Bahrain.But Saudi government has no response strategyagainst any US or western move to topple theirgovernment or to bring about a regime change throughthe house of Saud itself. The Americans control theentire Saudi oil and financial assets in the world andalso maintain a strong military presence in thepeninsula. Also, the US penetration in the Saudi C4Isystems makes the entire Saudi Arabia a virtual andphysical colony of the United States.Saudi armed forces will face tough times to defendtheir homeland against any serious external threats.The forces are highly dependent upon the US andforeign advisors, thus incapacitated throug~. acomplicated command and control structure that ISinthe hands of the Americans. Despite spending billionson military hardware, the fighting capability of theSaudi forces as disciplined organized forces remainsdangerously low. In the battles on the Yemen border,Saudi armed forces had to take serious losses. InBahrain, they were up against unarmed civilians,hence were able tomanage the uprising.Historically, Saudis have been inviting foreign armedforces from Arab countries, Pakistan and westernnations to defend their land against external threats.With Arab lands in turmoil, no Arab support isexpected to come for them. Iran and Turkey are not

their options. That leaves Pakistan as the only reliablealternate option to defend the land against foreign andinternal unrest. Trust in the US is at an all time low.Pakistan army has its presence in Saudi Arabia in theform of many trainers, doctors and advisors in theSaudi armed forces and the relations betweenPakistani and Saudi armed forces remain excellent butstill Pakistan does not have its armed forces on theSaudi soil as she used toprior to the Gulfwarof1992.Despite the threats and grave challenges to nationalsecurity, the Saudi security establishment andleadership remains highly reluctant to discuss anddebate the national security issues and vulnerabilities.The subject is a taboo in the national media and allsecurity matters are kept hush-hush. Theestablishment of think tanks to openly analyze andevaluate the national security doctrines has alwaysbeen discouraged even at the state level. Hence, theSaudi leadership has no way to get sincere,independent and practical national security adviceeither from their own sources or from their Arab orMuslim allies.However, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia is in adangerous situation today, facing an existential threatfrom the US primarily, which is fomenting variousaxes of 4th generation war against the Saudigovernment in order to create a favorable envi~onmentfor a regime change or placing a favorable kmg afterthe death of the existing top two leaders, the King andthe Crown Prince, whose health is a serious concernfor the Saudi security managers.A massive media war in the Arabic language is beingsponsored by the US and other western c?anne~sshaping the social and national profile of Saudi Arabiatowards "democracy" and an openness which wouldput the conservative Saudi leadership in a di~ect clasheither with the US or with the

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