battle ground afganistan

8/6/2019 Battle Ground Afganistan

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Pakistan and the Future Dynamicsof the US War on TerrorBy: Zaid Hamid

"Asia is a body' built of clay and waterAfghanistan is the heart in this body.'lfAfghanistan is in turmoil, the 'whole of Asia ,..-ouldbe in TurmoilIf Afghanistan is in peace, the whole of Asia 'wouldbe inpeace. "(Allama Iqbal)Paradox within a Paradox:

The above stunning, almost prophetic, geo-politicalvision of Iqbal is starkly visible today as the entireregion, especially Pakistan is faced with an existentialthreat from the Afghan theatre. While the rapid andviolent reshaping of the Muslim Middle East is beingorchestrated by the Neo-Cons in the mainland Arabworld, the occupation of Afghanistan by the westernforces is directly threatening the Muslim heartland inWest Asia, greater Khurasan and the Central Asianregions,Despite facing a massive high intensity,decentralized, imposed asymmetric 4 t h generation warwithin its own borders, Pakistan's Afghan policyremains fatally confused, disoriented and without anystrategic vision. This strategic confusion within thepolitical government has created an unprecedentedthreat environment in which the differentiationbetween friend and foe has been deliberatelyconfused through an orchestrated information warand psy-ops by the extra regional forces.

The irony isoverwhelmingly stark, the contradictionsparadoxical: Pakistan army is fighting a bloody andruthle ss insurgency backed by theUSINATO/India, simultaneously Pakistan is

also an ally ofthe western forces. Pakistan had agreed to help the US in the waragainst Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda insideAfghanistan but the US has pushed the warinside Pakistan under theAf- Pak doctrine. Weapons, explosives and supplies to theinsurgents against Pakistan are beingprovided by the western forces from

Afghanistan, while their own supply linespass through Pakistan which also carry thelogistics for the insurgencies.

Afghan Taliban and other resistance groupsare fighting a war against the foreignoccupation forces but are not considered alliesby Pakistan. Karzai regime is a hostile enemy governmentbut treated as an ally by Islamabad. TTP is an insurgent group fighting againstPakistan but the US insists that Pakistan


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The new world war for 21" century began in Afghanistan!should only fight the Afghan resistanceinstead.

Afghan resistance does not fight Pakistan andconsiders the TTP as a terrorist asset but doesnot fight the TTP as Pakistan does notrecognize the Afghan resistance.

Drones kill more pro-Pakistan Afghanresistance and Pakistani tribal civilians thanterrorists, causing serious damage toPakistan's interests but still Islamabad allowsthe attacks as amatter of policy.

The lSI and CIA are supposed to be allies butCIA is working systematically to decapitatethe premier Pakistani secret service and aviolent war rages between the two spyagencies under the facade ofcooperation!

India wages a ruthless war, supportingmultiple insurgencies in FATA andBaluchistan through Afghanistan but Pakistancontinues to engage India in "peace" process.India also continues to block Pakistani watersand also supports urban terrorists of MQM

andANP inKarachi.Under this most bizarre, complex, dangerous andconfused geopolitical threat scenario, Pakistan is ledby the most corrupt, compromised and dysfunctionalregime in its history, further creating a leadershipcrisis in times of war. In the last 4 years of this regime,


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not a single debate has been initiated on the Afghanpolicy which addresses the above core issues. Thepolicies of the Musharraf era are being pursued,which had brought this brutal war upon Pakistan inthe first place. Still, the leadership cannot decide howto extricate Pakistan from this war despite over50,000 dead and wounded, both from the armedforces and the civil society, in the last 4 years alone.The entire country has been turned into a battleground but still the regime does not plan any policyanalysis on the Afghan theatre and the threatsemerging from it. The "strategic blindness" of theleadership has created an existential threatenvironment for the state and the nation.A decisive solution to the Afghan crisis has to befound NOW! As the crisis has almost metastasizedbeyond control, the treatment would also be radical,harsh, and even ruthless but for the sake of regionalpeace and national security, it will have to bedeployed with cut throat lethality.Three critical factors must be understood clearlybefore any analysis and solution of the Afghan crisisis given: The Extra Regional forces are part of theproblem and NOT the solution of it. Therecan be no peace as long as the foreign forces

are occupying Afghanistan. The solution to the Afghan crisis does not liewithin the Afghan theatre of war but withinthe region - in the hands of the countries

surrounding the Afghan theatre. The US and NATO do not have the militaryand economic capability to open any other

high intensity, Iraq-styled theatre of waragainst Pakistan. Pakistan controls thejugular ofthe extra regional forces!

The Geo-Politics:Almost 18 months ago, at West Point MilitaryAcademy, US president Barack Obama stated:"It must be clear that Afghans will have to takeresponsibility for their security, and that Americahas no interest infighting an endless war inAfghanistan. "Obama seemed to be stating that the US really wanted

to bring this 10 year long vindictive WoT to an endand wanted to leave handing over the fate of thecountry to its indigenous owners. But what camealong with this announcement was a more aggressivedoctrine of Af-Pak which not only has devastatedAfghanistan but has also pushed the war deeper intoPakistan. During his address, president Obama alsoannounced a surge of 33,000 more troops forAfghanistan.Although, US has announced a limited withdrawal ofits forces from Afghanistan, but what does this"withdrawal" actually mean in the long term regionalsecurity perspective? What were the stated goals ofthe US war in Afghanistan? How far was the Af-Pakdoctrine successful in achieving its stated goals?Where does the war stand after 10 years? And whatare the future dynamics of this war from Pakistan'ssecurity point of view?The search of objective answers to these questionsinvites us to dissect this decade long war inAfghanistan and examine it both at strategic andpolitical vortexes along with its long term regionaland global ramifications.To start with it is essential to understand that the statedUS goals in the region are entirely different from herreal objectives. The detailed comparison between thetwo is critical to understand and predict the futurecourse ofwar on Pakistan's western borders.Disrupting, dismantling and deteriorating the abilityof Al-Qaeda and their allies (Taliban) to launch anyfurther attack onUS was stated as the primary missionobjective by the US government after 9/11. But thisstated aim was a mere smoke screen to veil the real


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long term strategic plans of the US for the region.The Grand strategic Objectives of the US for the 21 stcentury are:1. Defense and Security of Israel for whichPakistan must be de-nuclearized and

dismembered and Iran must be prevented frombecoming a nuclear power.

2. Control of global energy corridors, energyresources, pipelines and trade routes.3. Containment of Political Islam as an ideology.4. Control of global water ways and Oceans.S. Containment ofRussia.6. Containment of China.All these unstated grand strategic objectives make itcritical for the US and the Western powers to occupy,control and dominate Afghanistan and then to push thewar into Pakistan for a "Yugoslavia" solution."Balkanization of Pakistan" is a critical part of thisentire scheme. The imposed 4 t h generation war alongwith its entire spectrum of threat axis on political,economic, media and military is designed to createthis state failure in Pakistan to muster a globaljustification for "securing" Pakistan's nuclear assetsby an international coalition led by the UN or US.In this new great game, Pakistan is also in the middleof what many analysts call "Pipelineistan wars". PepeEscobar fromAsia Times writes:

"Pakistan is an energy-poor, desperate customer ofthe grid. Becoming an energy transit country isPakistan's once-in-a-lifetime chance to transitionfrom a near-failed state into an 'energy corridor' to

Asia and, why not, global markets. "After nearly one and half years of Af-Pakannouncement, it has become clear that the realpurpose of this doctrine was not to stabilizeAfghanistan but to destabilize the entire region bypushing the conflict into Pakistan. This doctrine is justa means for the US to meet its aforesaid strategicobjectives particularly the one related to "fixing"Pakistan.Lately, there is a realization among Pakistan's militaryestablishment regarding the devastating impact of theAf-Pak. Pakistan army and intelligence apparatushave been pushed into an endless fight against aobscure and ruthless enemy who has been attackingPakistan from Afghanistan since years now. On theother hand, the CIA and JSOC (Joint SpecialOperations Command) covert operators, under thediplomatic cover, are working to frame Pakistan in thenext 9/ll-like scenario. Consequently, not only thediplomatic relations between Islamabad andWashington are getting worse but also the intelligenceties between the lSI and CIA have hit rock bottom aswell. What used to be termed as merely a conspiracytheory is now being proved as a real conspiracy!The US and NATO forces have also been paying aharsh price for this failed and flawed doctrine since thelast two years. Official death toll of foreign occupyingforces has risen to 2600 and the US forces havesuffered most of these fatalities. The fatalities withinthe private contractors of Blackwater and Xe Services


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are not included in these official figures. Also, thenumber of the wounded and mentally wrecked troopsrendered unfit for military service is never given bythe US and NATO army.But all this is just the tip of the iceberg! All the majorUS forces' operations in Southern and centralAfghanistan have met with complete failure. Thetactics of prolonged guerilla warfare employed by theresistance have out maneuvered the occupation forcesinAfghanistan. The entire country, including Kabul, isunder the threat or control of the Taliban and otherresistance groups or criminal warlords. The Taliban 1.are also in control of all critical routes as well. Thesituation is so desperate that in some provinces eventhe coalition forces are forced to pay the warlords andTaliban commanders for a safe passage of theirsupplies, almost to the tune of $400 million per year,flooding the resistance with cash to carry on theresistance!The American fatalities in Helmand province presentan eye-opening account of how catastrophically theUS operations have suffered there. During the first 7years, till 2008, the total number of US troops killed inHelmand was 177, while in last two and half years, thisnumber has gone up to 543; almost 3 times morecasualties in 1I3fd of the time.The Americans had bet on the wrong horse in thepolitical arena as well. Despite the acknowledgementofKarzai's corruption by the US president in 2009, heis still enjoying the fake power in Kabul under the USumbrella as there is no other willing puppet availableto the US to replace him; just another reason to makethe Americans desperate for any kind of military

A noth er V ietn am in th e m akin g!

achievement!

During the recent weeks, there have been some criticalchanges which are reshaping the Afghan warenvironment. The Pak-US relations are in the woodson the entire axis as both the countries are desperate toprotect their own interests. For Pakistan, a verychallenging environment is in the making on thewestern theatre!The Af-Pak Theatre Environment:

In a desperate bid to push the war intoPakistan, the US and NATO are pushingPakistan attack

~NDI IA

A R A B I A NSEA


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hundreds of militants into Pakistan in regularcross border raids from the Kunar province.Fierce clashes are taking place in Mohmandand Bajaur regions of the tribal areas. Themilitants are supplied with massiveammunition, weapons and logistics from theAfghan side. NATO has removed their ownsecurity posts from the region to the west sideof Kunar River and has allowed freemovement to the militants to carry out raidsinto Pakistan. The Pakistan army has capturedtruck loads of millions of rounds of brand newammunition of AK-47, 12.7mm, 14.5mm,82mm Mortars, 75mm recoilless rifles andRPG- 7's. The massive supply line of TTPinsurgency runs uninterrupted from theAfghan side, fully backed by theCIA/RAWlRAMA. Pakistan continues tofight a high intensity war within its ownborders across the entire region in FATA.Pakistan army has not yet crossed the borderinto Afghanistan in hot pursuit ofthe militants.Artillery fire has been sent across the borderoccasionally but ironically often responded bythe US and NATO forces against the Pakistanipositions. The TTP militants continue to havesafe havens on the Afghan side close to thePakistani border, under the protection of USand NATO forces. No drone strike or fire hasever been brought upon the TTP positions bythe USINATO forces in Kunar or elsewhere.The treachery and betrayal of the US is mostnauseatingly vivid in this theatre.

2. Pakistan has expelled some of the US militarypersonnel from the country after the USSpecial forces made an incursion into Pakistan 4.on May 2nd In response, Washington has cutPakistani military aid. This move has failed toserve its purpose and is going to backfire forthe US. To add insult to injury, China hascompletely blown away the American psy-opsby openly coming forward and announcing allthe required cooperation with Pakistan. TheUS is now re-considering its decision to cutmilitary aid to the Pakistan army.

3. With the deteriorating Pak-US relations, theAmerican desire of making Pakistan take theownership of WoT is also frizzling out

ignominiously. As Pakistan has decided tofight the war with its own resources, now theoperational strategy will be Pakistan's own aswell. This is yet another challenge for the USas their entire exit strategy revolves aroundputting blame of their failure in Afghanistanon Pakistan. Now Obama administration isdesperately trying to sell the idea that Pakistanhas taken the ownership of WoT during thePak-US strategic dialogue. The CIA is equallydesperate to get its feet back in Pakistan. Theirlatest policy is to placate Pakistan byproviding a little more information about theon ground CIA operators in Pakistan.Previously, these operators were workingunder diplomatic cover; a failed policy whichcreated serious diplomatic and PR crisis forthe US.As the war continues to go wrong on all axes in


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the Af-Pak theatre, panic is rising in the ranksof the US decision makers. Mixed signals arebeing given by the Obama administrationregarding the future plans in Afghanistan.Some circles are eying the 2014 as the finalcut-off date while others are hinting about alonger delay. Right now, the US is not in theposition to prolong the war anymore and that'swhy Pakistan is being framed as the corereason for the failure of WoT. Recentannouncement of withdrawal is compulsion.NATO allies are also drawing down theirtroops. Canada and France have alreadyannounced the pull out.

S. Within the US, the sinking economy is aserious concern for the Obama administration.Economic managers are asking for 25% cut inthe US defense budget for the next year buttwo active wars, thousands of miles away fromhome, are demanding vast economic resourceswith no success on ground.

6 . "We can't simply lop off 25 percent off thedefense budget overnight," President Obamasaid recently while replying to his economicadvisors. "We have to think about all theobligations we have to our troops who are inthe field, and making sure they're properlyequipped and safe." According toAsia Societyfor Social Improvement and SustainableTransformation, the US war spending canincrease tomore than $4 trillion.

forces. ANA ranks are heavily penetrated bythe Taliban and there is reported pilferage ofthousands of weapons and millions ofrounds of ammunition from the force, mostlyending up in the hands of the Taliban.

8. The US military commanders are alsocompletely confused over the situation. Thedisagreements between the militarycommanders and political leadership are in theopen now. The firing of General McChrystal isa case to note. The US commanders havehinted at a conditional withdrawal followed bythe hope of a smooth transition whereas all the

7. Political measures taken by the US inAfghanistan are also in tatters. The USefforts to form a broad based allied regime inKabul have not paid any dividend so far asthe Taliban have not abandoned theirdemand of complete and unconditionalwithdrawal of all foreign forces. Now theAmericans are eyeing the Afghan NationalArmy (ANA)'s strength to help sustain anallied regime in Kabul but this plan is alreadya disaster. ANA has an on paper strength ofnearly quarter of a million troops but inreality, their training as well as their loyaltiesremain suspect and unreliable. They havenever been able to hold their ground againstthe Taliban without the support ofthe foreign ~;I,,--:r:~~'1lii;f.;o!l~LiL~iiii.:l~"'~J~i;Iiir".;aI~~~if,lI~~_"4IM'~i lEl. lJIt .t iI -l 'I 'W.. l: ii l . l ii iIUlh, :I Il t. l~Ll~FL~ruli .j :i :f .

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Helmand and Kandahar border Baluchistan not NWA, still death toll there is more thanthe North Eastern province bordering NWA.

odds are against the allied forces inAfghanistan. According to GeneralRodriguez, ISAF commander since 2007, "Aswe move forward with the plan, the transitionwill continue to be condition-based". He alsosaid that he believes that the transition is ontrack, and that the coalition and Afghan forces 10.can achieve the 2014 goal of complete Afghansecurity responsibility along with the plannedUS troop drawdown.

9. The propaganda about the intervention inAfghan areas from North Waziristan Agency(NWA) is another psy-ops by the US. The USofficials have been mounting pressure on thePakistan army to launch a full scale militaryoffensive in NWA to dismantle the Haqqaninetwork and other groups with whom thePakistan army had signed peace agreements inorder to cut down their intervention inAfghanistan. But the statistics of the ISAF

fatalities in Afghanistan point in a differentdirection. ISAF forces have suffered morecasualties in the Southern provinces ofAfghanistan than in the North-Easternprovinces bordering Pakistan's NWAregion.Afghanistan is an extremely complex countryin its pure social and political incarnation.Creating a supportive government is thebiggest challenge for the US and there is noteven a remote chance of success in sight in thisregard. Even the US forces' commanders arewell aware of the situation. The most criticaltask facing the coalition, according toRodriguez is to "support good Afghan leadersand encourage them to build depth within theirranks, and inspire other leaders to join inhelping create a hopeful future." The tribalsystem of Afghanistan has its own complexdynamics and the ISAF forces have failed tounderstand them. The US wants to westernizethe Afghan society through western political


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system but this move will always be faced withstiff resistance both physically andintellectually.The US objective to encircle China and Russiarevolves around establishing a nuclear missiledefense shield in Eastern Europe so that theUS is able to intercept any ballistic missile onits way to the American coasts. There is clearfriction between NATO and SCO on the USmissile defense program as the deployment ofthis missile defense shield would be in a veryclose proximity of the Russian border. Underthe Russian pressure, in 2009, PresidentBarack Obama shelved a Bush administrationproposal to station 10 missile interceptors inPoland and a radar facility in the CzechRepublic. The Americans are now movingtowards a newer plan of completing the task bydeploying the system on the Aegis destroyersand cruisers. But still the US would requiresome installations in Romania and Polandwhich would again annoy the Russians. Sixmember states of the SCO have alreadyexpressed their concern over this ambitiousAmerican plan. "It could harm the strategicstability and international security," theymaintained after a collective stance on theissue. Now Russia and China have signed analliance to oppose the US ballistic missiledefense program - BMD. For China thissystem can serve the US interest as a strategicmodel which, if successful in Europe, wouldbe replicated anywhere in the world against

the Chinese strategic weapons. This Chinesethreat perception includes India aswell.

1. The Iranians are also averse to the Americanpresence in the region. The Iranian securitysituation has remained restive particularly inthe Eastern provinces as the American trainedand funded Jundullah carried out multiplesuicide attacks in the region. Now Iran hasopenly warned Pakistan against the USintentions of harming Pakistan's nuclearprogram. The CIA suffered a major setbackwhen Pakistan and Iran joined hands againstJundullah and dismembered the organization.

2. India remains the only regional player whodesperately wants the Americans to stay inAfghanistan. But this insistence is not for theWoT but to protect the Indian investment inAfghanistan through which RAW is wagingmultiple wars inside Pakistan. India has alsoestablished a well organized spy network inAfghanistan behind Pakistan's back, workingthrough the Indian trained Afghan secretservice RAMA and the Karzai regime. TheIndians are extremely nervous about thepossibility of an American withdrawal fromAfghanistan.

Pakistan and the Future dynamics of WoT:The fate of the Afghan war is in the hands of Pakistan.But at the moment, Pakistan stands on very thin icedue to the staggering strategic confusion which theleadership has towards this threat and the theatre ofwar. Pakistan does not have a single friend inAfghanistan today. The relations with the Americansare extremely tense and even hostile. The Karzairegime is the extension of Delhi as per hostility andbetrayals. The Afghan Taliban and other resistancegroups are not hostile towards Pakistan but are notwilling to support or defend Pakistan at this stage. TheTTP are based inAfghanistan and continue to use theirUS protected base areas to wage a war against thePakistani state.NATO supplies continue to pass through Pakistan.Drone strikes also continue with impunity. CIAcontinues to run JSOC operations inside Pakistanpenetrating all organs of the state, media and political


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Pakistan destroyed USSR in Afghanistan.Today's US fate is also in Pakistan's hands.

parties. Only the lSI and the army are resisting the CIAas well as the TTP but their capacity to resist remainsextremely incapacitated in the absence oforganizational support from the government,judiciary and the media. This is not just a staggeringpolicy failure but also reeks of betrayals within thehighest levels of the government and society. Despitebeing in a state of urban decentralized war, the matteris not being treated as an existential crisis but as a locallaw and order issue to be dealt with local policeofficers and corrupt judiciary.The pressure continues to rise on the Pakistan army asthe TTP adopts even more aggressive and ruthlessways to wage their war against the state. Now theenemy combatants are attacking enmasse from acrossthe border and trying to control villages and territories

within Pakistan. The recent surge of attacks in Dir andthe military operations in Mohmad and Kurramregions are a manifestation of this newly deployedstrategy.The Pakistan army has to fight at two hostile frontssimultaneously: The Militants on ground are waging a high

intensity war within the mainland. The CIA/US army, which are waging a covertwar under the facade of alliance and military

cooperation. The CIA/JSOC teams areactually running a parallel intelligence andcovert operations network within Pakistanworking on a collision course with thePakistan army and lSI and underminingPakistan's national security and nuclearprogram.

Hostile "allies" ? - The CIA-lSI war rages on!

In the presence of a corrupt and compromised regime,hostile media and an incapacitated judiciary, the oddsare heavily against the army and the lSI. The presentreactive response strategy deployed by the army canonly stabilize the situation temporarily and buy somemore time for the State and delay the strategy of theenemies but it cannot win the war or change thestrategic profile of the regional theatre. Pakistan willcontinue to take losses and the army and lSI wouldalways be taking hits as the initiative of surprise wouldalways remain with the urban insurgents.


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Asking the Right Questions:In order to win this war, to crush the insurgencieswithin Pakistan and to stabilize Afghanistan InPakistan's favor, Pakistan will have to deploy anaggressive and comprehensive response strategy.Before we give our recommendations for such aresponse strategy, we would like to answer somefundamental questions which are always raisedwhenever the Afghan solution is discussed. Thesequestions and their correct answers would form thebasis of Pakistan's response strategy towards thistheatre ofwar.1. Question: Is it possible to have peaceful and 4.

stable Afghanistan in the presence of ExtraRegional forces in that country?

Answer: Impossible! Foreign forces are the rootcause of the crisis and not the solution for it. The entireregion and Pakistan is in a state of war because offoreign forces in Afghanistan. All strategies andoptions which are sincere and serious about peace inAfghanistan must demand an immediate andunconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces.2. Question: Given the present political and

economic conditions in the country, how canPakistan negotiate favorable terms with theUSand NATO and seek a withdrawal ofERF?

Answer: Pakistan can make life difficult for the USand NATO at present but cannot negotiate decisivelyin the presence of this corrupt government inIslamabad. The regime in Islamabad is the reason forthe state's multiple organ failures and catastrophicdebacles in this war. The regime change in Islamabadis as critical as fighting the insurgency and CIA onground.3. Question: Even if Pakistan has a patriotic

government in Islamabad, how can Pakistanforce the exit of ERF from Afghanistan andbring about afavorable solution?

Answer: The solution to the Afghan crisis lies notwithin Afghanistan but in the region. Pakistan willhave to make a solid stand along with China, Iran,Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the crisis. The US and

NATO cannot resist such a regional, political anddiplomatic alliance on Afghanistan. The Chinese andIranian stand is identical to that of Pakistan. SaudiArabia does not have its ownAfghan policy and wouldsupport Islamabad under all circumstances for a broadbased government in Afghanistan. The Russians canalso be asked to join the regional group in order toevict the foreign forces. The question of Muslimpeacekeeping forces can also be agreed upon withinthe regional Muslim countries. Pakistan can achievethis seemingly impossible diplomatic mission throughaggressive diplomacy. Regional powers and the SCOgroup are not happy with the ERF presence inAfghanistan.

Can Pakistan use the NATO supplies asleverage in negotiations and even block thempermanently?

Answer: Sure Pakistan can. This is the most strategicstranglehold which Pakistan has on the NATO'sjugular. NATO has not found any reliable alternate toits supplies from central Asia or Iran. The staggeringcost of transportation from central Asia makes it amission impossible. Almost 82% supplies and 65%fuel for NATO goes from Pakistan. A stronggovernment in Islamabad can create enoughdiplomatic pressure, through the allies in the region, touse the NATO supplies as a leverage to demand atimeline and an exit plan ofthe ERF from Afghanistan.A f g h a n s u p p i , ' r a l u t e sNAro&iMlII~ tItlw~lrid,~~,~ .fm m ','.I :i;a ;I~ ~ # I!)~iiI ~~ @~ ~!I~$,Oli ~~~m$i~l ! ! ! i i ! i ~ ; n tm a j o r r o ! l ~ e . . . . . . . . . I P D ~ e I 1 r 1 i a ~ 1O u te " '~


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NATO supplies are also the biggest source oflogistical support for the insurgencies againstPakistan. Thousands of "lost" containers insidePakistan are delivered to insurgents and terroristgroups by NATO contractors. There are serious andcritical reasons for Pakistan to block the NATOsupplies.5. Question: Can the US and NATO attack

Pakistan if Islamabad blocks their supplies orbecomes totally hostile on Afghanistan? Canwefight them?

Answer: The US and NATO do not have the capacity,the will, the economic strength or the military muscleto attack Pakistan! The war is going horribly wrong forthem in Afghanistan. Their domestic economies arecrashing under the burden of major wars in Iraq andAfghanistan. They have opened new fronts in the

Middle East. Their supplies pass through Pakistan.Almost 150,000 US, NATO soldiers and privatecontractors would starve to death or would be totallyimmobile sitting ducks without fuel within a week iftheir supplies are blocked from Pakistan in case of awar against Pakistan. They simply do not have theman power and reserve troops to wage another Iraq orAfghanistan or even Libya styled war againstPakistan. Pakistan can be harsh with them on all axesand control their jugular. This is not post 9/11scenario. Now we can be harsh on them and we must.6. Question: What kind of a government can we

have in Afghanistan? Should we bring backthe Taliban? How would we assure peace inthe country? What will be thefate of Northern

alliance, Tajiks, UzbeksandHazaras?Answer: All regional countries and Pakistan agreethat there should be a broad based government inAfghanistan. The Taliban had made the strategicblunder of waging a war against all other non-Pashtunethnic communities in the country. This catastrophicpolitical blunder later invited Western forces into thecountry. Pakistan has strong influence over thePashtun groups. Iran has influence over Tajiks andHazaras. Turkey is also closer to Taliban as well as theNorthern Alliance groups. These Muslim countriescan bring the Afghans to a table and convince them toforge unity within their ranks. Once the foreign forcesare out and the Muslim nations and regional countriestake responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan under abroad based and peaceful government, this seeminglyimpossible task would be achievable. The AfghanTaliban are more moderate now and seem to havelearnt their lesson but they will not come tonegotiations as long as ERF are present in the country.Even if there are difficulties in bringing Afghanstogether politically once the ERF are gone, still thewar which is flowing into Pakistan and destabilizingthe nation would stop. All base areas and supportinfrastructure of the TTP and insurgencies would beeliminated once the ERF and India are ousted from thecountry. Historically the post 1992 Afghan civil wartells us that even when the Afghans were fightingamongst themselves, they were not destabilizingPakistan, Iran or the region. The Taliban era inAfghanistan was the most peaceful one fromPakistan's perspective as there were no drugs,insurgencies or weapons flowing into Pakistan fromthere. The presence of the ERF and Indians inAfghanistan has turned that country and the region


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into a cesspool of wars, drugs and insurgencies. TheERF and the Indians must be thrown out urgently byall possible means; the rest ismanageable.7. Question: Should we not try to stabilize

Pakistan first before we attempt to interveneand stabilize Afghanistan? Pakistan isfragmenting and is under attack. Can weafford to get involved in Afghanistandiplomatically, economically and evenmilitarily?

Answer: Pakistan is destabilized and under attackbecause Afghanistan is in turmoil. Afghanistan is inturmoil because there are ERF in that country. Thesolution lies in removing the ERF and gettinginvolved with the help of regional friendly nations tobring peace in that country. Peace in Afghanistan willstop all support to insurgencies, terrorism andmilitancy in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot bestabilized as long as terrorists have safe havens inAfghanistan and are backed by CIA/RAW.8. Question: If the Americans leave now, there

would be instability in Afghanistan. Isn't itnecessary that the Americans must stay inAfghanistan till the country is stabilized andonly then they should exit?

Answer: Afghanistan is destabilized because of theAmericans and foreign forces in that country. The

ERF can never stabilize the country as the experienceof the last 10 years has proved. The war is goingagainst the occupation forces and they must leaveimmediately in order to calm the resistance. TheTaliban and Afghan resistance are willing to accept aninternational and Muslim mediation for peace talksand power sharing but their pre-condition remains thatthe foreign forces must leave Afghanistan first. Theresults of war so far prove that the foreign forces arepart ofthe chaos and notthe solution of it.9. Question: Can Pakistan armyfight and defend

the country alone against insurgencies andCIA under the present political, economic andmedia environment?

Answer: Pakistan army and lSI can stabilize thesituation temporarily and win many battles but cannotfight and win the war without diplomaticmaneuvering, political support, media psy-ops or theregional support of the friendly nations. The warstrategy presently deployed by the Pakistan army isreactive in nature not pro-active or aggressive in orderto take the war to the enemy. Pakistan has not evenentered Afghanistan in hot pursuit of the terrorists norcultivated any assets inside to neutralize the threatacross the border.The presence of the USINATO forces inAfghanistan,their operations inside Pakistan under Af-Pak andstate organ failure in Pakistan, all are creating a state


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dysfunction rapidly within Pakistan. The situation isgetting untenable by the day. The strategy of the CIAand JSOC is to create maximum state failure inPakistan in the coming days before they are forced toleave the region. Their covert grand strategic objectivewas to create security crisis in Pakistan in order tojustify the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. This is theirmost critical mission objective but they have notachieved it yet. In the coming days, more and moreruthless and high profile attacks would be launchedagainst the lSI, Army, nuclear installations and thecritical state infrastructure to achieve this objective ofstate failure. The US is desperate to achieve its covertobjectives and would be very ruthless against the stateof Pakistan and its armed forces in the coming days.The final word of caution and advice:

When the Geneva accord was signed in 1988 betweenthe Pakistan government and the Kabul regime, theentire Afghan resistance was kept out of it and wasabandoned. Despite having fought for 10 years andsacrificing over a million Afghans, the entireresistance was betrayed and left in the lurch. The resultwas a bloody civil war in Afghanistan for the nextdecade. The Geneva accord was a blunder of historicproportions which completely compromisedPakistan's entire stakes and interests in Afghanistan.Despite supporting the resistance for 10 years,Pakistan could never have a friendly government inKabul while Afghanistan remained in a catastrophiccondition of state failure. It was only during theTaliban era, from 1996 to 2001, that Pakistan hadsome form of a friendly government in Afghanistan.There were no insurgencies in Pakistan during thatperiod and the Taliban had ousted all Indian assetsfrom the regions under their control. Now Pakistanmust NOT repeat the blunder of the Geneva accordand the post Afghan war era.In future, the Americans and NATO would not be ourallies but Pashtun resistance and people ofAfghanistan would be. Our present allies wouldchange but our neighbors are permanent. Pakistanmust never forget this.Pakistan cannot abandon the Afghan resistance nowunder any form of exit plan of the foreign forces andmust make sure that a friendly and cooperativegovernment is placed in a stable Afghanistan. TheAfghans themselves do not have the capacity to

resolve their differences. They need help of friendlyand Muslim nations from within the region. This iswhere Pakistan has to take the lead role.India is already planning a strategic role inAfghanistan. They are aggressive, pro-active andalready present on ground. Pakistan must snatchAfghanistan from them.While Pakistan fights multiple insurgencies within itsborders, it also has two mammoth challenges at handnow for which the entire strength of politics,diplomacy and military must be deployed with fullforce and wisdom: Force the foreign forces to leave Afghanistan

within the shortest possible time. Make sure that Afghanistan gets a stable

friendly broad based government with peace inthe country.

Americans do not want to leave Afghanistan. They aresimply buying time. Pakistan will have to force themto exit and also make sure that they do not leave a messbehind them. This is the real challenge.This is NOT post 9/11 scenario. The Americans havebeen defeated in Afghanistan. Their economy at homeis in shambles. Their military humiliated and in noposition to wage another war. Pakistan can now fullystand up to the Americans and ask "Are you with us oragainst us?" If they are with us, they will have to dowhat we tell them to do. Else, we must do with themwhat we did to the Soviets. We have done it before. Wecan do it again.

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