bank of america - oecd and aging...disclosures 2 bank of america merrill lynch is a marketing name...
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Bank of America Research on Aging and Longevity August 2015
Disclosures
2
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is a marketing name for the Retirement Services business of Bank of America Corporation (“BAC”).
Banking activities may be performed by wholly owned banking affiliates of BAC, including Bank of America, N.A., member FDIC.
Brokerage activities may be performed by wholly owned brokerage affiliates of BAC, including Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith
Incorporated (“MLPF&S”), a registered broker-dealer and member SIPC.
Investment products:
Certain associates are registered representatives with MLPF&S and may assist you with investment products and services. Unless
otherwise noted, all trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of Bank of America Corporation.
© 2015 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. | ARBK6GH6/DX4C4I
Are Not FDIC Insured Are Not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value
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Source: The Atlantic, October 2014 Issue
Health Care Improvements Keep Lowering the Death Rate
4
Source: Age Wave, 2014 Timeline
Increased Longevity Is a Recent, Major Demographic Shift
38
47
78
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1800 1900 2000 2100
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
Years
5
The Last Two Centuries Have Seen a Doubling of the Average Lifespan…
…Which Is an Exponential Change in the Context of Overall Human Experience
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100,000 BC 50,000 BC 2000 AD
Years
100+?
Aging Population Is A Global Phenomenon
Source: Nehal, Sarbjit and Beijia Ma, "The Silver Dollar - Longevity Revolution," Merrill Lynch Global Research, June 2014, p.3
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Percent of Population Age 65+ in 2050 Percent of Population Age 65+ in 2010
Less than 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% 15% to 20% Greater than 20% No Data
Aging Baby Boomers Supercharge the Longevity Revolution Change in U.S. Population Growth
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Source: US Census Bureau, 2010
-11%
20%
49%
11% -2%
17% 27% 1970 - 1980
7% 8% 7% -10% 3%
73%
54%
2000 - 2020
4% -13% 16%
47%
11% -3%
22% 1980 - 1990
1990 - 2000 12% 7% -8%
20%
49%
15% 12%
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Longevity and Aging Boomers are Reshaping American Society
Source: Dychtwald, Ken, "How the AGE WAVE will Transform the Marketplace, the Workplace, and Our Lives," Age Wave, April 2014, pp. 50, 55-59
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Population by Age and Sex, 1970 Population by Age and Sex, 2030
re•tire•ment (noun) |riˈtīrmənt|
: The action or fact of leaving one's job and
ceasing to work
: To disappear, to go away, to withdraw
From… … To
Retirement is Being Redefined and Transforming the World
Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary, published 1951
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28%
35%
33%
5% Full-time work
Cycle between work and leisure
Never work for pay again
Part-time work
72% of pre-retirees
want to work in some form
during retirement
Work Has Become an Essential Idea of Retirement
Source: Merrill Lynch/Age Wave “New Retirement Wildcards” Survey, 2013, General Population Pre-Retirees Aged 50+ and Working Retirees Aged 50+
10 10
Ideal Plan to Balance Work in Retirement for Pre-Retirees
Majority of Retirees Choose to Work, Across Wealth Levels
“Which one of the following represents your ideal plan for how you would like to balance work and leisure in retirement?”
“I work in retirement because I have to”
“I work in retirement because I want to”
62%
82%
96%
38%
18%
4%
Under $50K $100K to under $250K
$1M to under $5M
Source: Dychtwald, Ken, "How the AGE WAVE will Transform the Marketplace, the Workplace, and Our Lives," Age Wave, April 2014, pp. 50, 55-59
Longevity Bonus is Driving a Re-Imagination of Lifecourse Alternating Work, Family, Education and Leisure Time
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Traditional Lifecourse
Longevity bonus
Age
Education Work and family Leisure
0 20 40 60 80 100
Modern Lifecourse (illustrative)
Age
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Education Leisure Work and family
Gap year
Grad school
Sabbatical
Retraining for second career
Traveling
Consulting and volunteerism
Getting new degree
Changing Family Dynamics Pose New Social and Financial Challenges for Boomers
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Source: Age Wave Study: Family
Family Then
Family Now
Multi-generational family poses challenges…
3 out of 5 people age 50+ today provide financial support to their parents and their adult children
‒ Many boomers become the “Family Bank”
Family support is unforeseen and unprepared
− 88% of age 50+ have never budgeted for financial support to family members
83% of age 50+ feel financially responsible for their parents
There is a dangerous lack of communication around financial planning in retirement for elderly parents
‒ 70% of boomers haven’t discussed with their parents where they live in retirement or how they pay for long-term care
Women are expecting to live longer and are more likely than men to worry about running out of money and being a burden to their families
Women in Particular Are Affected By Longevity
Source: MetLife Study of Women, Retirement, and the Extra-Long Life, Implications for Planning, September 2011, p.3 ; 65+ in the United States: 2010 US Census Bureau, p. 127-8
Expect to Live Longer than Men and Worry About Running Out of Money
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20%
39%
Men Women
% Expecting to Live to Age 90
2.6
11.3
Men (Widower)
Women (Widow)
4 out of 5 women will outlive their spouses
− 800,000 new widows every year
Number of US Widowers and Widows (millions)
2x
4x
A Massive “Silver Economy” is Emerging Globally Worth an Estimated $7T According to BAML Research
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Source: Ma, Beijia, "The Silver Dollar - Longevity Revolution," September 2014, p.13
Healthcare
Housing
Financial services Consumer goods 75+ year olds spend over 200% more on health care than the
population average
Average national rent for skilled nursing facilities is $8,000/month
Boomers dominate 94% of consumer packaged good
categories
20%+ expected increase in financial advisors
Pharma Average American aged 65-79 receives 27 prescriptions per
person/ year
It Is Challenging to Secure Retirement Income
15
Source: US Department of Labor Employee Benefits Security Administration, Private Pension Plan Bulletin Historical Tables and Graphs, Dec 2014, Table E5: Number of Participants in Pension Plans by type of plan, 1975-2012; Dychtwald, Ken, "How the AGE WAVE will Transform the Marketplace, the Workplace, and Our Lives," Age Wave, April 2014, p.21
66%
50%
40%
32% 34%
50%
60%
68%
1980 1990 2000 2011
Defined Benefit Defined Contribution
Defined Benefit Plans Are Going Away… … While Social Security Burden Is Growing Exponentially
Percentage of Participants in DB and DC Plans 1940 2010
60 year CAGR
Population age 65+ (million)
9.0 38.6 2.5%
Workers to recipients ratio
42 to 1 2.9 to 1 N/A
Social Security recipients
22,488 54,031,968 13.9%
Average annual Social Security payout
$220 $12,892 7.0%
Total Social Security payout (M)
$49 $696,580 17.3%
% Federal budget for Social Security
0.04% 19% 10.8%
Healthcare Issues and Expenses Are the Retirement “Wild Card”
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Source: Alzheimer's Association, 2014 Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures, Alzheimer's & Dementia, Volume 10, Issue 2, p.54.; Longtermcare.gov; Hebert LE, Weuve J, Scherr PA, Evans DA, Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010-2050) estimated using the 2010 Census. Neurology 2013;80(19):1778–83; Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Alzheimer's Disease, July 2014 ; Alzheimer's Association, "Help Wipe Out Alzheimer's: Share the Facts," 2014; Fidelity Viewpoints, "Retiree health costs hold steady," June 2014; Ameriprise Financial, "4 Strategies to help you save enough for health care in retirement," 2015
Long Term Care Need and Cost Are Major Concern
30% Won’t
Need LTC 70%
Will Need LTC
Couples retiring at 65 will face average of $220-270,000 in health care costs during retirement
Currently, 5.2M Americans affected by Alzheimer’s, which without a break-through cure is expected to rise to 14M by 2050
Among top 10 causes of death in US, Alzheimer’s is currently the only one that cannot be prevented, cured or even slowed
2014 2050
Costs of Alzheimer’s Are Expected To Explode
% of Population 65+ yr Expecting To Need Long Term Care
$214B
$1,200B
~6x
Longevity Revolution Impact Across BAC Client Groups
People
Companies
Institutional Investors
Require help with securing sufficient retirement income streams and hedging increased longevity risk
Prepare for increased and unpredictable health care costs
Aspire to living their best life in retirement
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Concerned that employees are under-prepared for retirement
Seek talent opportunities with an aging labor pool
Struggle with Defined Benefits funding risks as they transition to Defined Contribution retirement plans
Adapt to changing customer demographics and utilize opportunities created by the $7T “Silver Economy”
Create longevity and mortality risk management products
Develop new set of retirement / lifetime income products
Distilled Client Insights into an Innovative Framework and Driving it Through Channels
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Listened to Clients Main Retirement Concerns in Consumer
Research…
… and Distilled What We Heard into an Innovative Framework