Bang or Bus ines s School

Working Paper

BBSWP/10/001

PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND POLICE DELIVERY

By

Y. Al tunbas and S. P . Chakravarty

Divis ion of Financia l Studies

Bang or Bus ines s School

and

M. Y. Fe i lzer

School of Socia l Sciences

Bang or Univers i ty

February 2010

Bang or Bus ines s School

Bang or Univers i ty

Hen Goleg

Col l eg e Road

Bang or

Gw ynedd LL57 2DG

United King dom

Tel: +44 (0 ) 1248 38227 7

E-mai l : bus ines s @bang or.a c.uk

2

BBSWP/10 /001

Publ ic percept ion a nd pol i ce de l ivery

Abs tract

On e of th e d ifficu lt ies of m easu r in g p er for m an ce in th e d eliver y of p olice ser vices fr om

su r vey s is t h e p r oblem of r econ cilin g views abou t th e qu ality of policin g of d is t in ct

g r ou p s of r espon d en ts w ith d iffer en t p r ior ou t look abou t policin g . Th is p aper su g g es ts

a m eth od for addr ess in g th e p r oblem of th e d iffer en ces in th e d em og r ap h ic com posit ion

of vict im s an d n on -vict im s of cr im e to d r aw r obu st con clu s ion s . It appea r s th a t

per cep t ion s of vict im s of cr im e abou t th e r espon siven ess of th e police to r equ es ts for

h elp a r e m or e pess im is t ic th an th e p er cep t ion s of th ose wh o ex p r ess an op in ion abou t

th e ser vice th ey wou ld r eceive in th e h ypoth et ica l ca se of th em selves becom in g vict im s

of cr im e.

J EL cla ss ifica t ion : H11, H40, K40

Keywor d s: Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey (BCS), Pu blic con fiden ce in p olice, Efficien t policin g ,

Measu r in g p er for m an ce, Vict im s , Non -vict im s

3

BBSWP/10 /001

Publ ic percept ion a nd pol i ce de l ivery

1 . Introduct ion

Th is pap er look s a t a n eg lected a sp ect of th e Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey (BCS) da ta , t h e

cor r espon den ce between th e p er cep t ion s of th e police ser vice by th ose wh o h ave r eason

to com e in to con tact with th e police a s vict im s of cr im e an d th ose wh o h ave n ot h ad an y

su ch occasion for d ir ect con tact . A par t icu la r q u est ion th e an swer s to wh ich a r e

ex am in ed h er e con cer n s pu blic p er cep t ion abou t th e ability of th e police to r esp on d to

vict im s‘ appeals to tu r n u p a t th e scen e of cr im e. Th e ex p er ien ce of p r eviou s con tact

h as a s ig n ifican t im pact on th a t per cep t ion , a s ex p la in ed below.

Data r epor t ed in BCS m ay in for m th e views of som e of th ose wh o s tu dy th e qu ality of

policin g in Br ita in . A r eview of th e r eg ion al for ces cla im s th a t ―…var ia t ion in th e cr im e

r a t es in s im ila r a r eas m ig h t th er efor e be down to th e efficien cy or wor k in g p r act ices of,

for ex am ple, p olicin g in th ose a r eas‖ (Cr ou ch an d Mar d le, 2007). However , t h e r an k in g

of r eg ion al for ces th a t m ig h t be d er ived fr om BCS data h as to be appr oach ed with

cau t ion becau se th e da ta a r e n ot r an dom ised a t r eg ion al p olice for ce a r ea level. An

ex am in at ion of th e d iver g en ce in th e p u blic con fiden ce in th e Nor th Wales an d Dy fed

Powy s p olice for ces su g g est s th a t som e of th a t d iver g en ce m ay be du e to d iffer en ces in

th e g eog r ap h ica l d is t r ibu t ion (r u r a l-u r ban ) of su r vey r espon den t s between th e two

r eg ion s (Feilzer , 2009).

Th e sh or t com in g s of su r vey d a ta , especia lly abou t per cep t ion s con cer n in g th e ex ten t of

cr im in al beh aviou r in society or th e efficien cy with wh ich th e police r esp on d to cr im e,

a r e n u m er ou s . For ex am ple, a vis ible in cr ease in police n u m ber s m ay en g en d er a

g r ea ter sen se of secu r ity even if i t tu r n ed ou t to be th e ca se th a t th e p r even t ion of cr im e

is bet ter ach ieved by a sm aller n u m ber of bet t er -t r a in ed police officer s . Th e fea r of

cr im e a s m easu r ed in su r veys m ay con fla te ir r a t ion a l an x iet ies of r esp on den ts with th e

object ive r ea lity on th e g r ou n d . Th e fear of s t r an g er s m ig h t en ter in to p er cep t ion s of

th e r isk of becom in g a vict im of cr im e (Dit ton an d Fa r r a ll, 2007; Far r a ll et a l., 2000;

Lee, 2007). To m ak e m at ter s of in ter p r eta t ion of su r vey d a ta fu r th er com plica t ed , it

appea r s th a t th e fear of cr im e am on g st old er people ―does n ot a lway s t r an s la te in to

wor r ies of [th em selves ] bein g vict im ised‖ (Pan tazis , 2000). Th er e is a lso eviden ce th a t

you n g m ales wh o sp en d ―con sid er able pa r t of t h eir leisu r e t im e ou t s ide th e h om e [ar e]

m ost a t r isk fr om bein g vict im s of per son al cr im e‖, bu t th is is a dem og r aph ic g r ou p

4

BBSWP/10 /001

th a t adm it s to ―ver y lit t le fear ‖ of bein g in su ch dan g er (Bor ooah an d Car ach , 1997).

Th is is con sis t en t with th e fin d in g s in th e US as r ep or ted in th e Abs t r act of a

g over n m en t r ep or t t h a t vu ln er ability to cr im e ―d id n ot app ea r to be r ela ted to cr im e

r ed u ct ion effor t s‖ (Sk og an an d Max field 1981) . Th er e is a p r oblem in u s in g su r vey

da ta on per cep t ion s th a t g oes beyon d th e p ecu lia r it ies of BCS. At t itu d es su r vey s fa r too

oft en based on ―qu es t ion in g th e p u blic on su bject s wh ich a r e in su fficien t ly m ean in g fu l

to th em is lik ely to r esu lt , a t bes t , in r an dom an d , u su a lly , in in d u ced an swer s‖

(Rober t , 1978).

Desp it e th e in cr eas in g r ea lisa t ion th a t Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey da ta is n ot p ar t icu lar ly

r eliable in ju d g in g th e efficacy of p olicin g , it is a r g u ed h er e th a t som e r obu s t

con clu s ion s m ay s t ill be poss ible to der ive. Th is a r g u m en t is illu s t r a ted by an a lys in g

r espon ses to a pa r t icu lar qu es t ion th a t is a sk ed in th e above su r vey : ―Th ey (th e police

in th is a r ea) can be r elied on to be th er e wh en y ou n eed th em ‖

All th ose wh o ex pr ess a view in an swer s to th e above q u est ion h ave n ot n ecessar ily

com e in con tact with t h e police, an d m ay n ot h ave been vict im s of cr im e. Th e

dem og r ap h ic com posit ion of th ose th a t h ad been vict im s an d oth er s a r e n ot n ecessa r ily

th e sam e. For ex am ple, you n g m ales a r e m or e vu ln er able to ph y sica l a t t ack , sp en din g

a g r ea ter fr act ion of th eir t im e ou t of h om e. Th is par t icu la r is su e of d iffer en ces in th e

dem og r ap h ic com posit ion is add r essed h er e. A r obu st con clu s ion em er g es , t h a t t h e

n eg a t ive per cep t ion abou t th e police as r epor ted in an swer s to th e qu est ion above

can n ot be d ism issed s im ply as a con seq u en ce of dem og r ap h ic d iffer en ces in th e two

sam ples .

Th e p r oblem of d iffer en ces in th e dem og r aph ic com posit ion , especia lly s in ce

dem og r ap h ic va r iables in for m th e s t r a t ifica t ion in BCS, g ives r ise to th e t ech n ica l is su e

of in dex n u m ber s . A s im ilar ity in d ex , m easu r in g th e deg r ee of s im ila r ity or d is -

s im ila r ity between th ese two g r ou ps , is con sid er ed h er e.1 Ag g r eg at in g r espon ses fr om

differ en t g r ou p s in society in to a s in g le m easu r e of th e ‗pu blic r espon se‘ en ta ils

cr ea t in g an in dex th a t depen ds on th e com posit ion of th e r espon din g g r ou ps . Th e

in dex n u m ber p r oblem , ag g r eg at ion p r oblem as it som et im es ca lled , is n ot su fficien t ly

em p h asised in th e cr im in olog y lit er a tu r e. Th e p r oblem is flag g ed u p pr om in en t ly h er e

befor e delvin g in to th e su bstan ce of th e pa p er .

1 Th e in dex u sed h er e der ives fr om th e idea of s im ilar ity between ex por ts of d iffer en t cou n tr ies , an d it is

ex pla in ed in th e liter a tu r e on in ter n at ion al t r ade (F in g er an d Kr ein in 1979).

5

BBSWP/10 /001

Th e p aper is or g an ised a s follows. Sect ion 2 g ives a br ief su m m ar y of th e back g r ou n d

to th e p ar t icu lar BCS qu es t ion th a t is an a lysed h er e. Sect ion 3 r a ises th e p r oblem of

ag g r eg at in g r espon ses fr om d iffer en t in d ivid u als , g r ou ped in to ca teg or ies by r efer en ce

to ag e, eth n icity , g en d er etc, t o obta in an over a ll view of a t t it u de to th e police. Th e

con cept of a s im ilar ity in dex in th e d em og r aph ic com posit ion of r espon den t s —br ok en

down in to two m u tu ally ex clu s ive g r ou p s , t h ose th a t h ave n ever been vict im s of cr im e

an d th u s h ad n o occasion to seek h elp fr om th e p olice an d th ose th a t h ave a t lea s t on ce

been a vict im of cr im e an d m ay h ave su bsequ en t ly com e in con tact with th e police in

con sequ en ce—is in t r odu ced in Sect ion 4 . Th eir d iffer en t r esp on ses a r e com p ar ed an d

con t r a s t ed in Sect ion 5 , an d Sect ion 6 con clu d es .

2 . Bri t i s h crime s urvey

Th e Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey (BCS) is an an n u al su r vey based on a sam ple of a lm os t 50

th ou san d in ter views con du cted du r in g th e y ea r (Nich ola s et a l . 2007). Th e da ta set in

th is pap er r efer s to th e 2 006/2007 su r vey r esu lt s . BCS beg an a s p ar t of an a t t em pt to

u n d er s tan d th e n a tu r e of an d ch a llen g es to policin g in Br it a in , bu t it h a s g r adu ally

becom e a tool for m easu r es of p er for m an ce an d or g an isa t ion a l com peten ce of th e police

for ce in En g lan d an d Wales (Allen 2007; Hou g h et a l., 2007) in En g lan d an d Wales .

Scot lan d an d Nor th er n Ir elan d ar e n ot in clu ded in BCS. Th e u se of BCS d ata for th e

pu r poses of m easu r in g p olice per for m an ce an d com par in g th e or g an is a t ion a l

com peten ce of police au th or it ies r em ain s con t r over s ia l, a s ex p la in ed ear lier .

Th e sam ple is r an dom ised over En g lan d an d Wales an d th e r an dom isa t ion is based on

postcod es . Adu lt s between th e ag es of 16 -74 livin g in p r iva te h ou seh olds a r e sam pled .

Cr im e ag ain s t bu sin esses an d wh ite-colla r cr im e ar e n ot cover ed . Th e da ta r epor t ed in

BCS2006/07 con ta in s in t er views with 47 ,203 people between Apr il 2006 an d Mar ch

2007 . Th ese in t er views las t ed on aver ag e for 50 m in u tes , bu t lon g er t im e was d evoted

to vict im s th an n on -vict im s . Th e types of qu es t ion s th a t a r e a sk ed a t in t er view ar e

d iscu ssed in th e liter a tu r e (Nich ola s et a l ., 2007). Th e m eth od of con du ct in g in t er views

is a lso a m a t t er of pu blic r ecor d (Bollin g et a l., 2 007).

3 . Ag g reg at ion of res pons es

St r a t ifica t ion of th e p op u la t ion in th e ch oice of sam ples en ta ils t h e ch oice of r ele van t

p r ox ies by wh ich to id en t ify d iffer en ces in a t t itu de to th e p olice by d iffer en t g r ou p s of

people. Socio-econ om ic var iables , bu t on ly th r ou g h p r ox ies (g en d er , eth n icity an d ag e),

6

BBSWP/10 /001

ar e em ploy ed in BCS to iden t ify th e g r ou p s to su r vey . Ag g r eg at ion of an sw er s r epor t ed

in th e su r vey en ta il r esor t g r ou p weig h t s with in each sam ple pop u la t ion . In com par in g

r espon ses fr om d iffer en t sam ples in a su r vey —wh eth er between two police a r eas or

vict im s ver su s n on -vict im s of cr im e—differ en ces in th e com posit ion of th e sa m ples by

socio-econ om ic or d em og r ap h ic g r ou ps h ave to be tak en in to accou n t . It is r ea son able

to ask if t h e ag g r eg at ion pr ocedu r e u n accep tably d is tor ts t h e sam ple r esp on ses to

r en d er com p ar ison u n wise. We pr opose to ex am in e th is qu es t ion with ou t im m edia te

r esor t t o r eg r ess ion an a lys is . In s t ead , we follow th e pa th of ag g r eg a t ion an d in d ex

n u m ber s .

To illu s t r a te th e a r g u m en t , con sider two sam ples – Sam ple I an d Sam ple II – wh ich ar e

com posed of d iffer en t ty pes of people, for ex am ple in t er m s of ag e, eth n icit y , an d

g en der . Th e two sam ples m ay h ave seen th e police fr om d iffer en t van tag e poin t s , for

ex am ple a s vict im s of cr im e an d n on -vict im s of cr im e, r esp ect ively . Th e r espon den t s in

each sam ple a r e ask ed to ex pr ess a bin a r y a t t itu d e, favou r able an d u n favou r abl e, abou t

th e q u ality of ser vice th ey r eceive fr om th e police. Sam ple popu la t ion s com pr ise two

m u tu ally ex clu s ive an d ex h au s t ive ca t eg or ies , A an d B in each sam ple. Th e ca teg or ies

m ig h t be defin ed by com bin in g ag e, g en d er , eth n icity et c in to a set of m u tu a l ly

ex clu s ive an d ex h au st ive a t t r ibu tes . Su ppose fu r th er th a t t h e a t t it u d e towar d s th e

police va r ies n ot ju s t between th e two sam ples , vict im s an d n on -vict im s , bu t a lso

in dep en d en t ly between ca teg or ies of th e pop u la t ion . For ex am ple, Ca teg or y A

r espon den t s a r e m or e cr it ica l in Sam ple I th an in Sam ple II, bu t Ca teg or y A

r espon den t s a r e g en er a lly les s cr it ica l, ea s ier people to sa t is fy , t h an Ca teg or y B in both

th e sam ples . Categ or y B r esp on d en t s a r e les s cr it ica l in Sam ple I t h an in Sam ple II bu t

Categ or y B r espon d en t s a r e g en er a lly m or e cr it ica l in t em p er am en t , th an m em ber s of

Categ or y A in both th e sam ples . A n u m er ica l ex am ple is p r esen ted in pan els (a ) an d

(b) of Table 1 .

Let u s su ppose th a t we wish to k n ow if p eople r epr esen ted by Sam ple I a r e les s cr it ica l

of th e ser vice th ey r eceived th an p eople r ep r esen ted by Sam ple II. We ag g r eg a te th e

r espon se of th e two ca teg or ies u s in g th eir r ela t ive weig h t s in th e pop u la t ion of th e two

r esp ect ive a r eas , as r epor t ed in pan el (c) of Table 1 .

It m ig h t be in fer r ed th a t people r ep r esen ted in Sam ple I a r e les s cr it ica l t h an th ose

r ep r esen ted in Sam ple II. Now su ppose th a t Sam ple I com p r ise vict im s of cr im e an d

Sam ple II com pr ise th ose wh o h ad n ever th em selves been vict im s. Th en it wou ld be

tem pt in g to con clu d e th a t bein g a vict im of cr im e (wh ich m ig h t br in g th em in to

7

BBSWP/10 /001

con tact with th e police) m ak es p eople t ak e less cr it ica l of t h e ser vice th a t is p r ovided by

th e police for ce. Th e p u blic a t t it u de to th e police ser vice is less cr it ica l th an th e

m easu r es of a t t itu d e d er ived fr om in ter view with th ose th a t h ave n ot ex p er ien ced cr im e

a t fir s t h an d . Th is lin e of r eason in g wou ld be m is lead in g u n less th e r obu stn ess of th e

con clu s ion th a t Sam ple I is les s cr it ica l of t h e ser vice th an Sam ple II is t es ted with

r esp ect to th e ca teg or ica l com posit ion of th e two sam ples . Th is ag g r eg a t ion issu e is

illu s t r a t ed below.

It m ig h t be a r g u ed th a t t h e above r an k in g of pu blic views with th e ser vice between

Sam ple I an d Sam ple II is an u n r eliable in d ica tor of th e per ceived q u ality of policin g

becau se Sam ple II h as a g r ea ter p er cen tag e of Ca teg or y B in d ividu als wh o a r e

g en er a lly m or e cr it ica l. Su ppose we u se th e sam e ag g r eg at ion weig h ts , t h e weig h t s for

Sam ple I, in der ivin g th e ag g r eg a te r espon ses for both th e sam ples . Fr om th e r esu lt s

r ep or ted in p an el (d ) of Table 1 , it appear s th a t Sam ple II r espon den t s r a t e th e ser vice

bet t er t h an Sam ple I r espon den t s . Ran k in g of th e r espon se a s r ep or ted in pan el (c) a r e

r ever sed th r ou g h a d iffer en t ag g r eg at ion p r oced u r e.

For a r obu s t com par ison between th e r espon ses of Sam ple I an d Sam ple II popu la t ion s

to be m ade, t h e r an k in g of r espon ses between th e two sam ples h as to be in depen den t of

th e ag g r eg at ion weig h ts . Com p ar ison is a lso eas ier if th e d is t r ibu t ion of th e ca t eg or ies

of r espon d en ts is s im ilar between th e two sam ples .

4 . S imila ri ty index

Th e q u es t ion an a lysed h er e con cer n s th e per cep t ion of th e ability an d willin g n ess of

th e police to tu r n u p wh en r eq u ir ed . A view m ig h t be for m ed based on pr ox y va r iables ,

su ch a s th e vis ibility of police on th e s t r eet s an d in ciden t s h ig h lig h ted in th e p r ess . Th e

view m ay be r ein for ced or m odified wh en th er e is occas ion to ca ll th e p olice. Th e

com posit ion of r espon den t s to th e r elevan t BCS q u est ion n air e of th ose wh o h ad been

vict im s an d m ig h t h ave h ad con tact with th e police (Sam ple A) an d th ose th a t h ad

n ever been vict im s (Sam ple B) is n ot id en t ica l. A s im ila r ity in d ex for th e com posit ion of

th ese g r ou ps is su g g es ted h er e, followin g d iscu ss ion abou t in dex n u m ber s for

com par in g ex por t s im ila r ity (F in g er an d Kr ein in 1979).

Th er e a r e 42 police for ce a r eas (PFA) in En g lan d an d Wales . In each of th ese PFA

r eg ion s th er e a r e two sam ples , A an d B, of r espon den t s . Su ppose th a t th er e a r e 3

s t r a t ifica t ion cr it er ia for each sam ple of r espon den t s : ag e (You n g , Middle-ag ed , Old),

8

BBSWP/10 /001

eth n icity (Wh ite/Non -wh ite), an d g en d er Male/Fem ale). Th ese can be com bin ed to der ive

12 m u tu a lly ex clu s ive an d ex h au s t ive ca t eg or ies of r espon d en t s . Th e idea is to com p ar e

th e s im ila r ity between th e sam ples by r efer en ce to th e 12 m u tu a lly ex clu s ive an d

ex h au s t ive ca t eg or ies of th e r espon d en ts in each PFA an d in En g lan d an d Wales a s a

wh ole. Th e tech n ica l d eta ils a r e in th e app en dix below. Th e s im ilar ity in d ices a r e

tabu la t ed in Table 2 .

5 . Att i tude to pol i ce

Su r vey s abou t a t t it u des to th e p olice a r e n otor iou sly d ifficu lt to in t er pr et becau se

qu est ion s m ay be in ter p r eted d iffer en t ly by d iffer en t r espon den t s , even if th eir con tact

with th e police wer e for s im ila r r eason s , for ex am ple as vict im s of cr im e. Som e

r espon den t s wh en ask ed abou t th eir con fid en ce in th e police m ig h t base th eir an swer

on th e ou tcom e of th eir con tact in t er m s of h avin g th e p er p et r a tor s cau g h t . Oth er s m ay

base th eir an swer s on som eth in g less t an g ible lik e fa ir n ess th a t d ep en d s on h ow th ey

wer e t r ea t ed wh en th ey r ep or ted a cr im e. Th er e is eviden ce fr om oth er su r veys th a t

―posit ively r eceived en cou n ter s‖ h ave a posit ive im pact on th e pu blic p er cep t ion of

fa ir n ess in policin g (Br adfor d et a l. 2009). Sk og an (2006) h as a t t em pted to an a ly se

h ow th e above two d iffer en t factor s im p act on th e pu blic per cep t ion of th e effect iven ess

of th e p olice for ce. He con clu des th a t vict im s a r e oft en les s con cer n ed abou t h avin g th e

per p et r a tor s cau g h t or g oods r etu r n ed ―th an th ey ar e abou t h ow pr oper ly or

im pr op er ly th ey a r e t r ea ted by th e au th or it ies‖ (Sk og an , 2006). Th e r esp on den t s a r e

m or e con cer n ed abou t th e p r ocess th an th e ou tcom e. We ex am in e h er e on e of th e BCS

qu est ion s focu sin g on th e p r ocess to see if vict im s of cr im e h ave g r ea ter con fid en ce

th an th ose wh o h ave n ot been vict im s abou t th e effect iven ess of th e police in h an dlin g

cr im e.

Effect ive policin g en ta ils th e police tu r n in g u p wh en n eed ed . On e of th e qu est ion s

ask ed in BCS is con cer n ed with th is a spect of policin g . T h e qu est ion in th e BCS th a t is

ex am in ed h er e is d escr ibed below.

Var iable = pola t t1

Qu es t ion : Th e police in th is a r ea can be r elied on to be th er e wh en you n eed

An swer s to th e q u est ion ar e g iven n u m er ic va lu es a s ex p la in ed below.

Valu e = 1 Label = St r on g ly ag r ee

9

BBSWP/10 /001

Valu e = 2 Label = Ten d to ag r ee

Valu e = 3 Label = Neith er ag r ee n or d isag r ee

Valu e = 4 Label = Ten d to d isag r ee

Valu e = 5 Label = St r on g ly d isag r ee

Valu e = 8 Label = Refu sed

Valu e = 9 Label = Don 't k n ow

Th e above qu est ion is a sk ed to g r ou p s of r espon den ts A (vict im s o f cr im e) an d B (n on -

vict im s) an d th e cu m u la t ive per cen tag es of r espon den t s wh o eith er h old a favou r able

op in ion (St r on g ly ag r ee p lu s Ten d to ag r ee) or h old a n on -n eg at ive op in ion (favou r able

p lu s Neith er ag r ee n or d isag r ee) a r e r ecor d ed in Table 3 . Wh a t is r em ar k able in Table 3

is t h e level of con fiden ce in th e p olice bein g able an d willin g to tu r n u p wh en n eed ed

th a t th e vict im s of cr im e h ave is lower in vir tu a lly ever y PFA th an th ose wh o h ave n ot

been vict im s of cr im e an d h ad pr esu m ably less n eed to seek h elp fr om th e police.

To ex am in e if t h is appa r en t ly sy s t em a t ic d iver g en ce of views between sam ples A an d B

can be a t t r ibu ted to d iffer en ces in th e com posit ion of th e two g r ou p s of r espon den t s , we

h ave ex am in ed th e cor r ela t ion between th e Sim ilar ity In dex in Table 2 separ a tely with

each set of va lu es of A-B in Table 3 over th e ser ies span n in g a ll th e 42 p olice for ce

a r eas . Th e cor r ela t ion coefficien t is -0 .16 between FAV (A-B) an d Sim ilar ity In d ex . Th e

cor r espon din g coefficien t for Non -n eg lig ible (A-B) an d Sim ila r ity In d ex is -0 .22 , an d

th u s th e per s is ten ce of lower op in ion of th e p olice a s descr ibed above h eld by th e

vict im s of cr im e can n ot be d ism issed r ead ily a s an ag g r eg at ion p r oblem of th e da ta .

Wh ils t t h e cor r ela t ion coefficien t s above a r e sm all, t h ey do n ot r u le ou t t h e poss ibility

th a t over -r ep r esen ta t ion of ca teg or ies (Appen dix Table 1 ) of in d ivid u als wh o m ig h t

g en er a lly h old a lower op in ion of th e police in Sam ple A cou ld be th e ex p lan a t ion of th e

r esu lt s r epor ted in Table 3 . Wh ils t th e sam ple s izes in in d ividu al police for ce

au th or it ies a r e too sm all to war r an t r an k in g au th or it ies in Table 3 , t h e p r oposit ion

abou t th e im pact of th e ag g r eg a t ion p r oced u r e can be t es ted u s in g th e la r g er d a ta set in

PFA 43 , th e wh ole of En g lan d an d Wales .

To p r oceed with th is lin e of a r g u m en t , we ex am in e th e BCS da ta on ―pola t t1‖ by th e 12

m u tu ally in clu s ive an d ex h au st ive ca teg or ies of r esp on d en ts in PFA 43 . At t it u des of

th e two sam ples , A an d B, a r e r ecor d ed in Tables 4 an d 5 , an d com par ed in Table 6 . Th e

com par ison elabor a tes p r esen ts th e sam e in for m at ion Table 3 , an d th e con clu s ion is th e

sam e. Th e vict im sam ple is m or e scep t ica l of th e police th an th e oth er sam ple.

10

BBSWP/10 /001

Com bin in g r esu lt s in Tables 4 an d 5 , we can com par e th e r espon ses of th e two sam ples ,

A an d B. As we can see fr om Table 5 , an d a lso fr om th e la s t r ow in Table 3 , t h e

per cen tag e of r espon den ts r espon din g eith er favou r ably or n on -n eg a t ively is lower for

A th an it is for B. Su pp ose it is th e ca se th a t th e d is t r ibu t ion of g r ou p s com pr is in g

Sam ple A is s u ch th a t t h er e is a bia s ag a in s t t h e police. To r em ove th a t p oss ibility

in flu en cin g th e d iffer en ce in r espon ses by A an d B, we s im u la te a d is t r ibu t ion for

Sam ple A th a t follows th e d is t r ibu t ion of g r ou p s in Sam ple B. Th en we com par e

r espon ses . Th e p r oced u r e is a s follows. Fir s t con sider th e d is t r ibu t ion of r espon den t s in

PFA 43 between th e 12 ca teg or ies for each of th e sam ples A (Vict im s) an d B (Non -

vict im s). Now s im u la te a d iffer en t d is t r ibu t ion by ch an g in g th e n u m ber s of

r espon den t s by g r ou p s 1 to 12 for Sam ple A to r eflect th e d is t r ibu t ion in Sam ple B. We

n ote th a t Favou r able or Non -n eg a t ive r espon ses fr om A will ch an g e between th e

r ecor d ed va lu es an d va lu es ca lcu la t ed u s in g th e s im u la ted d is t r ibu t ion of th e 12

m u tu a lly ex clu s ive an d ex h au s t ive g r ou p s ca t eg or is in g th e r espon den t s . Th u s Table 4

n ow ch an g es as sh own below in Table 9 . Th e a t t it u des of th e two sam ples in th is

s im u la ted case a r e com p ar ed in Table 9 an d su m m ar ised in pan el (a ) of Table 10 . Th e

m ain fin d in g , th a t r esp on den t s belon g in g to Sam ple A a r e m or e scep t ica l of r eceivin g

h elp fr om th e police th an th ose belon g in g to Sam ple B, h old s for both Table 6 , wh ich

was based on th e or ig in a l da ta an d pan el (a ) of Table 10 , based on th e s im u la t in g th e

d is t r ibu t ion of sam ples between ca teg or ies or r espon den t s in Sam ple A to fit th ose of

Sam ple B in th e or ig in a l da ta . A t es t of r obu stn ess of th e com par ison between A an d B

a lso en ta ils a com par ison based on a fu r th er s im u la t ion , d is t r ibu t in g th e ca t eg or ies in

Sam ple B to follow th e or ig in a l d is t r ibu t ion of ca teg or ies of r esp on d en ts in Sam ple A.

Th e ou tcom e is r epor t ed in pan el (b) of Table 10 .2

A com par ison of Tables 6 an d 10 add s r obu stn ess to ou r con cer n th a t t h e vict im s of

cr im e m ay be less con fiden t abou t bein g able to ca ll u pon th e police wh en n eed ed th an

th ose th a t h ave n ever been vict im s.

6 . Conclus ion s

Th er e a r e p r oblem s of in ter pr et in g BCS da ta , esp ecia lly s in ce it is collected for a ver y

wide r an g e p u r poses with ou t focu s on th e r elevan t s t r a t ifica t ion cr it er ia to be u sed in

sam plin g . Desp it e r eser va t ion s abou t th e q u ality of th e BCS d ata , som e con clu s i on s can

be d er ived , if on ly a s a p oin ter for fu r th er in ves t ig a t ion , fr om th is da ta . It appear s th a t

2 To con s t r u ct pan el (b) of Table 10 , we follow s teps s im ilar to th ose ou t lin ed in g oin g fr om Table 6 to pan el

(a) of Table 10 , wh er e Sam ple A was s im u la ted to r esem ble th e d is t r ibu t ion of ca teg or ies as in Sam ple B. We

n ow h old d is t r ibu t ion of A a t it s or ig in a l va lu es an d s im u la te Sam ple B to r esem ble th e d is tr ibu t ion of

ca teg or ies in Sam ple A.

11

BBSWP/10 /001

r espon den t s wh o h ave been vict im s of cr im e a r e m or e scep t ica l abou t th e ability of th e

police to tu r n u p wh en r equ ir ed th an th ose wh o h ave n ever been vict im s. It is

dem on st r a ted h er e th a t t h is con clu s ion can n ot be d ism issed a d a ta ag g r eg at ion

pr oblem du e to th e dem og r aph ic com posit ion of th e sam ples for vict im s an d n on -

vict im s bein g d iffer en t fr om each oth er . Th e pap er su g g est s a way of t es t in g for

r obu stn ess ag a in s t th e above p r oblem of d em og r aph ic com p osit ion , bu t a n ote of

cau t ion is n eeded . For ex am ple, it is n ot clea r th a t police for ce a r eas r an dom ise th e da ta

an d h en ce com par ison between d iffer en t for ce a r eas u s in g th is da ta is n ot pa r t icu la r ly

r eliable.

Wh a t th e r esu lt s d em on s t r a t e is a n eed to in vest ig a te, with sp ecia l focu s on sam ple

select ion , wh y cer ta in g r ou p s of p eople, especia lly if t h ey h ave been vict im s of cr im e,

h old d iffer en t views fr om oth er s abou t th e abilit y of th e police to d ea l p r om pt ly with

th eir n eed s . Th e d iffer en ces a r e n ot ex p la in ed p u r ely by th e d iffer en ces in th e

s t r a t ifica t ion var iables in th e sam ple com posit ion . Th e h ypoth esis th a t p er son al con tact

with th e police h as a n eg at ive im p act on a t t itu d e to th e p olice, as r epor t ed in S k og an

(2006), is too br oad a view to ex p la in ou r obser va t ion . Ou r d a ta does n ot d iffer en t ia t e

between th ose vict im s wh o h ad con tact s an d th ose th a t d id n ot . In an y even t , Br adfor d ,

J ack son an d Stan k o (20 09) r epor t t h a t con tact s , per se, do n ot n ecessar ily lead to

n eg a t ive a t t it u de to th e police.

12

BBSWP/10 /001

References

Allen , J ., 2007 . Su r vey a ssessm en ts of police p er for m an ce in th e Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey ,

in : M. Hou g h an d M. Max field , eds ., Su r vey in g Cr im e in th e 21s t Cen tu r y (Cu llom pton :

Willan ) pp …

Bollin g , K ., C. Gr an t an d P. Sin cla ir , 2007 . 2006 -07 Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey (En g lan d an d

Wales): Tech n ica l R epor t vol 1 (Lon don : Hom e Office0 .

Bor ooah , V.K. an d C.A. Ca r cach , 1997 , Cr im e an d fear , evid en ce fr om Au st r a lia , Br it ish

J ou r n a l of Cr im in olog y 37 , 635 -656 .

Br ad for d , B, J ack son , J ., an d E . Stan k o, 2009 , Con tact an d con fiden ce: r evis it in g th e

im pact of p u blic en cou n ter s with th e police, Policin g an d Society 19 :1 , 20 -46 .

Cr ou ch G. an d S. Mar d le, 2007 . Police an d cr im e s tan da r d s d ir ector a te r eview of

per for m an ce ben ch m ar k in g , Dr aft Rep or t Ver s ion : 1 .0 , Police an d Cr im e Stan d ar d s

Dir ector a te 14 /6 /07 .

J . Dit ton , J an d S. Fa r r a ll, 2007 . Th e Br it ish cr im e su r vey an d fea r of cr im e, in : M.

Hou g h an d M. Max field , ed s ., Su r vey in g Cr im e in th e 21 st Cen tu r y (Cu llom pton :

Willan ) pp …..

Fa r r a ll, S., Ban n is ter , J ., Dit ton , J ., an d E . Gilch r is t , 2000 . Socia l p sy ch olog y an d th e

fea r of cr im e. Br it ish J ou r n a l of Cr im in olog y 40 , 399-413 .

Feilzer , M (2009), ―Not F it for Pu r p ose! Th e (Ab -)u se of th e Br it ish Cr im e Su r vey a s a

Per for m an ce Measu r e for In d ividu al Police For ces‖, Policin g ; doi: 0 .1093/police/pap009

Fin g er , J .M. an d M.E . Kr ein in , 1979 . A Measu r e of ‗ex por t s im ilar ity ‘ an d it s poss ible

u ses . Th e Econ om ic J ou r n a l 89 , 905-912

Hou g h , M., Max field , M., Mor r is , B., an d J . Sim m on s , 2007 . Th e Br it ish cr im e s u r vey

over 25 year s : p r og r ess , p r oblem s, an d p r ospect s , in : M. Hou g h an d M. Max field , ed s .,

Su r vey in g Cr im e in th e 21st Cen tu r y (Cu llom p ton : Willan ), pp…..

Nich ola s , S., Ker sh aw, C., an d A. Walk er , 2007 . Cr im e in En g lan d an d Wales 2006/07

(Lon don : Hom e Office).

Lee, M., 2007 . In ven t in g fea r of cr im e: cr im in olog y an d th e p olit ics of an x iety

(Cu llom pton : Willan ).

Pan tazis , C., 2000 , Fea r of cr im e, vu ln er ability an d pover ty : eviden ce fr om th e Br it ish

cr im e su r vey , Br it ish J ou r n a l of Cr im in olog y 40 , 414 -436 .

Sk og an , W. G an d M. G. Man sfield , 1981 . Copin g with cr im e: in d ividu al an d

n eig h bou r h ood r eact ion s (Th ou san d Oak s , CA: Sag e). Abst r act ava ilable a t :

h t tp ://www.n cjr s .g ov/Ap p/Pu blica t ion s/abs t r act .a spx ?ID=78899 )

Sk og an , W. G., 2006 . Asym m et r y in th e im pact of en cou n ter s with th e police . Policin g

an d Society 16 , 99-126 .

Rober t , P ., 1978 . Pu blic Opin ion in Rela t ion to Cr im e an d Cr im in al J u s t ice. Pap er

p r esen ted a t t h e 13th

Cr im in olog ica l Con fer en ce, St r a sbou r g .

13

BBSWP/10 /001

14

BBSWP/10 /001

15

BBSWP/10 /001

16

BBSWP/10 /001

17

BBSWP/10 /001

18

BBSWP/10 /001

19

BBSWP/10 /001

20

BBSWP/10 /001

21

BBSWP/10 /001

22

BBSWP/10 /001

23

BBSWP/10 /001

24

BBSWP/10 /001

Appendix

Su ppose th a t t h er e a r e n n u m ber of s t r a t ifica t ion cr it er ia (con sid er , for ex am ple, t h r ee

cr iter ia : ag e, eth n icity , g en d er ) wh ich can be com bin ed to der ive N n u m ber of m u tu a lly

ex clu s ive an d ex h au st ive ca teg or ies . Th er e a r e 4 2 police for ce a r eas (PFA) in En g lan d

an d Wales . In each of th ese PFA r eg ion s th er e a r e two sam ples , A an d B, of

r espon den t s . Th e m u tu a lly ex clu s ive an d ex h au s t ive ca t eg or ies above ar e n ow g iven

d iffer en t n am es: a1 j,…a

Nj, for Sam ple A an d b

1 j,…b

Nj, for Sam ple B, wh er e th e su bscr ip t j

= 1 ,43 , d en ot in g th e 42 police for ce a r eas (PFA) an d th e ag g r eg a ted ( j=4 3) a r ea , i.e. th e

wh ole of g eog r aph ica l a r ea of En g lan d an d Wales .

Th e tot a l n u m ber of r esp on d en ts for sam ples A an d B a r e Aj an d B

j, r espect ively , for j

=1,… 43 . Th u s

Ni

i

ijj aA1

an d

Ni

i

ijj bB1

Now con st r u ct var iables iijij Aax / an d iijij Bby / a s d efin e

Ni

i

ijijj yxxyS1

]),min[(100)(

Su ppose th a t t h e com p os it ion of sam ples A an d B ar e th e sam e in th e jt h PFA. Th en th e

in dex 100)(100)(1

Ni

i

ijj xxyS

By th e sam e tok en , if th e com posit ion of th e two g r ou p s is t ot a lly d is -s im ilar in th e jt h

PFA, th en th e in d ex Sj(x y ) t ak es th e va lu e zer o.

Th e followin g two App en dix Tables ex p la in th e s t r a t ifica t ion cr it er ia an d th e m u tu a lly

ex clu s ive an d ex h au st ive con s t r u ct ion of ca teg or ies fr om th ese cr it er ia . Table 4 .3

r ep or ts t h e s im ilar ity in d ices between sam ples A (Vict im s) an d B (Non -vict im s). Th er e

a r e 12 m u tu a lly ex clu s ive an d ex h au st ive ca teg or ies th a t follow fr om t h e above th r ee

ch ar acter is t ics .

25

BBSWP/10 /001

26

BBSWP/10 /001