back to basics: a return to the essentials of urban growth presentation by joel kotkin, presidential...
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Back To Basics: A Return to the Essentials of Urban Growth
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow, Chapman UniversityConfederation of Danish IndustriesCopenhagen, April 2, 2008
“Every city is in a natural state of war with every other, not indeed proclaimed by heralds, but everlasting.”
Plato, 4th Century BC
CompetitionCompetitionBetween CitiesBetween Cities
and Regions is a and Regions is a Fact of LifeFact of Life
-- and has been for -- and has been for Over two millenniaOver two millennia
Rise and Fall of CitiesRise and Fall of Cities
“Human prosperity does
not abide long in one place”
Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC
• Inability to absorb newcomersInability to absorb newcomers• Lack of upward mobilityLack of upward mobility• Inattention to basic infrastructureInattention to basic infrastructure• Lack of shared common cultureLack of shared common culture• Decline of Family Decline of Family
Families as History’s Bedrock
“…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment
The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.”
The Cosmopolitan CityThe Cosmopolitan City
French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and
London in the early Modern Period
The Expansion to Outsider GroupsThe Expansion to Outsider Groups
“the honor that knowledge will give us will be entirely ours, and it will not be taken from us by the thief’s skill…or by the passage of time.”
Louise Labé
16th Century French Author
“there is no sin but ignorance”
Christopher Marlowe,1576
New Attitudes and Knowledge Shift the Global Balance of Power
New Attitudes and Knowledge Shift the Global Balance of Power
In 1601, Britain’s revenues were less than a tenth of Mogul India’s; within two hundred years, the relationship was totally reversed in England’s favor by a similar margin
Ibn Khaldun
14th Century Arab historian
“Attacks on people’s property remove the
incentive to acquire and gain property”
The Key to the first Great CityThe Key to the first Great City
“The Greeks boasted of their ‘useless’ art and Egypt’s legacy lay in idle pyramids, but what were these compared to the fourteen aqueducts that brought water to Rome?”
A Roman Historian
Arts and Culture: Arts and Culture: A Look Back in TimeA Look Back in Time
• Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon commercial success
• Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class
• Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20th Century to today’s multi-billionaires
America’s Talent: Laying Foundation of
the Future
America’s Talent: Laying Foundation of
the Future• National Road proposed by Jefferson
(1806)• Period of Canal Building (1800-1850)• Construction of Railroads (1840-1900)• Carnegie Libraries• Interstate Highways (1930-1970)• Airports, Telecommunications
1880-1920 Progressive Reform
1880-1920 Progressive Reform
• Reformers in Europe, US and other industrial countries develop new sanitation systems
• Development of parks in cities in Europe, the US and Australia
• Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to bring people to the countryside
Depression Era: Works Progress Administration
Depression Era: Works Progress Administration
• Majority of Expenditures into “hard” infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, schools, electrification
• Arts less than 7% of budget
• Employed 3 million workers with roughly 10 million dependents
• Employed 175,000 engineers
US : Forgetting the Basics US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U.S. Population Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1960 1970 1980 1990 19990
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital ValueGrowth (scale left)
US Population (scale right)
Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006)
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending
Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending
The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002
Identifying Key TrendsIdentifying Key Trends• No simple formula and there are
almost always exceptions to every rule
• Aging Population threatens Europe, US less so
• Cities Moving away from central mission
• Need to focus on sustainable economics and family friendly environment to maintain middle class
• Sustainable culture must be based on liberal principles and economic opportunity
Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past
Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past
Annual Average Population Growth, 1997-2007
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries
Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries
Projected Population Growth, 2007-2050
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Getting Older SlowerGetting Older SlowerPopulation Over 65
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Roots of Current Urban ProblemsRoots of Current Urban Problems
• Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery• Inattention to basic urban infrastructure• Lack of focus on expanding middle class
• Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery• Inattention to basic urban infrastructure• Lack of focus on expanding middle class
The Ephemeral City: The Future of
the Core?
The Ephemeral City: The Future of
the Core?
“a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and
rendezvous.”
H.G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for Europe’s cities?
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for Europe’s cities?
Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin
Kevin Starr on San Francisco
“Poor but sexy."
“A cross between Carmel and Calcutta”
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
San Francisco
Seattle
Boston
Washington
Denver
New York
Los Angeles
Houston
Phoenix
United States
2000 1990
Cities without ChildrenCities without ChildrenPercent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities
U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas
Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999
Suburban Urban Rural
1950-1999Millions
Growth: City vs. SuburbGrowth: City vs. Suburb
10,405,253821,077
0
20,000,00040,000,000
60,000,00080,000,000
100,000,000120,000,000
140,000,000160,000,000
180,000,000200,000,000
2000 2005 change 2000 2005 change
Metropolitan Population Central City Population
US Metropolitan & Central City Population: 2000-2005
Demographia
In Most advanced countries, the Single Family Home Has Predominated as
“The Universal Aspiration”
In Most advanced countries, the Single Family Home Has Predominated as
“The Universal Aspiration”
“The suburban house is the idealization of every
immigrant’s dream--- the vassal’s dream of his own
castle. Europeans who come here are delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an
apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own your own
home.”
—Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini
Where Americans Would Like To Live Where Americans Would Like To Live 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Small town notnear a city
Rural area
Not sure
Large city
Suburb nearlarge city
Fannie Mae, 1998
-12.9% 7.8%
14.8%
-1.1% 9.0%
18.1%
-19.0%17.2%
54.0%
-7.8% 30.8%
66.4%
-24.1% 39.7%
74.0%
-8.6% 59.0%
108.5%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Tokyo
Paris
Frankfurt
Chicago
New York
London
Core City Metropolitan Area Suburbs
Declustering: A Global Perspective
Declustering: A Global PerspectivePercentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000
Source: Demographia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Northeast Midwest West South
Mean three -mile share Mean 10-mile share
Economic Declustering: Jobs Head outEconomic Declustering: Jobs Head out
Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001
Percentage of Metropolitan area employment
The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and housing
estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and housing
estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
“Town and country must be married and out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new
civilization.” Ebenezer Howard
The British Vision of Urbanity: The Garden CityThe British Vision of Urbanity: The Garden City
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Work at Home SOV HOV Transit Walk
The Big Trend: Digital ImpactThe Big Trend: Digital Impact
Source: US Decennial Census
Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
High-Rise Mid-Rise Low -Rise Tow nhouse &Villas
Detached Average
Per Person Per Dwelling
Tonnes CO2/Person/Year Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year
Institute of Public Affairs
What We Lost: the Pre-industrial CityWhat We Lost: the Pre-industrial City
“The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution administered to the Western family was the progressive removal of work from the home.”
— Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian
$13
$18
$45$48
$55
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Global Declustering:Telecommunications Changes Everything
Global Declustering:Telecommunications Changes Everything
Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to Los Angeles
source:Oncept,Inc.
Technology Shifts the Locational ParadigmTechnology Shifts the Locational Paradigm
• New technology could telescope the distance between communities
• Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to economies with specific expertise
• Technology turns everyplace into a potential global hub
• New technology could telescope the distance between communities
• Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to economies with specific expertise
• Technology turns everyplace into a potential global hub
“‘Town’ and ‘city’ will be in truth, terms as
obsolete as ‘mail coach.’”
-H.G. Wells, Anticipations of the Mechanical &
Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought (1902)
Smaller cities and towns already plug into dispersed digital networks
Smaller cities and towns already plug into dispersed digital networks
“You look ahead and you can see the possibilities of a lot of vibrant communities in these places.
You have a low cost of living, a great quality of life --- there’s a population there that wants to be there but can still participate in cutting edge, substantial work.”
Doug Burgum, Great Plains Software
Virtuality is Coming…Virtuality is Coming…
I leave my house in the country and drive 17 miles through the
blue grass. But when I open my computer I am at my center, it
feels like I am back in San Jose. It's a kind of virtual
Silicon Valley.”
Alan Hawse Director of CAD Development
Cypress Semiconductor
The Key to a Successful National StrategyThe Key to a Successful National Strategy
This above all: to thine own self be true
William Shakespeare
A Useful InsightA Useful Insight
“If you need a campaign to prove you’re hip and cool,
you’re not.”
Michigan talk radio host on Governor Jennifer Granholm’s
“Cool Cities” initiative
Beyond Hip and Cool: Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005
Beyond Hip and Cool: Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005
Net Domestic Migration of College Educated, Number of Migrants per 1,000 total Population,1995-2000 and 2004-2005
1.7
-0.4
-0.5
-1.0
-0.5
2.6
-0.6
-0.3
1.2
1.2
4.0
2.8
2.5
3.3
0.8
5.0
4.9
-1.2
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.8
3.3
3.5
5.1
5.9
Minneapolis
Boston
Los Angeles
New York
Chicago
San Francisco-Oakland
Philadelphia
Detroit
Washington, DC
Houston
Atlanta
Dallas
Seattle
Portland
Riverside
Charlotte
Phoenix
2004-2005
1995-2000
The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Potential Immigrant Underclass
The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Potential Immigrant Underclass
• Growth of poorly educated newcomers and youngsters poses a unique problem, particularly with the end of the property boom
• Sense of separation from society needs to be addressed aggressively
• Economic development needs to focus on their upward mobility — not “luring” the middle class, but creating one”
American Experience: When the kids get together…something happens…
American Experience: When the kids get together…something happens…
• Mixed race designation is officially at 2.5percent
• But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation
• Barack Obama, Mariah Carey, Tiger Woods all multi-racial role models
Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area
Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area
31.23%
34.14%
7.26%11.50%
22.12%
30.60%
5.14%
15.93%
8.31%
5.45%
8.61%
6.34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
US bornLatino
Foreign bornLatino
US bornAsian
Foreign bornAsian
AfricanAmerican
US bornWhite
Male Female
The American future: the rise of hybrid society…
The American future: the rise of hybrid society…
• A survey of LA and NYC Latino and Asian youths finds culture more important than race
• 85% of first generation Latinos, 97% second identify first as Americans
• American Muslims out-perform national norms in income, education and voter participation. They are also more satisfied with their lives than most Americans
• Cross-culture Latino , Asian , Middle Easter influence move into mainstream
• Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.
Official multiculturalism is not the answer…Middle class Opportunity and Personal Contact between individuals represent
the best way to the future
Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the proper
role of an urban economy
Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the proper
role of an urban economy
“A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly transforming many
poor people into middle class people ...greenhorns into competent citizens... Cities don’t lure the middle
class, they create it”
Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - 20022002
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Current Population SurveyAnalysis by Richard Deitz, New York Federal Reserve Bank
Education Is a Key Part of the Education Is a Key Part of the Upward Mobility EngineUpward Mobility Engine
Education attainedMedian weekly earnings in 2005
Unemployment rate in 2005
(Dollars) (Percent)
Some high-school, no diploma 409 7.6
High-school graduate 583 4.7
Some college, no degree 653 4.2
Associate degree 699 3.3
Bachelor's degree 937 2.6
Master's degree 1,129 2.1
Professional degree 1,370 1.1
Doctoral degree $1,421 1.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Lessons from the US Heartland…and Denmark
“You go where the skilled and willing labor is. People’s attitudes are key. ”
Ralph Sperrazza, manager, LM GlasfibreGrand Forks, North Dakota
“We need more machinists and less poets”…Delore Zimmerman, Praxis Strategy Group
Strategies for the 21st Century• Build housing that encourages families • Focus on diverse industries including specialized
manufacturing• Build infrastructure for competitiveness• Stay Green, but remember humans matter too • A liberal culture--- tied to Enlightenment ideals---is critical for
creating a successful diverse society
Questions and Comments?Questions and Comments?