AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESSFOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESSFOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

ACI Airport Statistics and Forecasting Workshop

Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

London, 3rd March 2011

Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

London, 3rd March 2011

ContentContent

Statistics

Data & Trends

Forecasts

Derived Products

Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecastsMonitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts

FORECASTINGFORECASTING

MARKET

ANALYSES

MARKET

ANALYSES

Safety

Sustainable

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil aviation matters

Sustainable

Air transport

Development Environment

Security

Civil Aviation Civil Aviation : the global picture: the global picture

2.5 Billion passengers

ICAO ICAO Statistics Statistics PProgrammerogramme foundationsfoundationsICAO ICAO Statistics Statistics PProgrammerogramme foundationsfoundations

Chicago Convention (Art. 54, 55, and 67Chicago Convention (Art. 54, 55, and 67))

Each contracting State undertakes that its international airlines shall, in accordance with requirements laid down by the Council, file with theCouncil traffic reports, cost statistics and financial statements showing among other things all receipts and the sources thereof.

CouncilCouncil

Air Transport

55

and the sources thereof.

Assembly Resolutions (Assembly Resolutions (A37A37--20, 20, App. BApp. B):):

�� Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation

and storage and storage Integrated Statistical Database Integrated Statistical Database

provides Contracting States and other provides Contracting States and other

users with an efficient online system for users with an efficient online system for

the retrieval of statistical data;the retrieval of statistical data;

�� Requests the Council, calling on national Requests the Council, calling on national

experts in the relevant disciplines as experts in the relevant disciplines as

required, to examine on a regular basis the required, to examine on a regular basis the

statistical data collected by ICAO statistical data collected by ICAO and etc…and etc…

AssemblyAir TransportCommittee

StatisticsDivision

StatisticsPanel

Aviation statistics collection, Aviation statistics collection, dissemination and use : a value chaindissemination and use : a value chainAviation statistics collection, Aviation statistics collection, dissemination and use : a value chaindissemination and use : a value chain

12 existing reporting forms12 existing reporting forms

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS STATISTICS

� A Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier

� A-S Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State

� B On-Flight Origin and Destination

� C Traffic by Flight Stage

� D Fleet and Personnel

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS STATISTICS

� A Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier

� A-S Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State

� B On-Flight Origin and Destination

� C Traffic by Flight Stage

� D Fleet and Personnel

77

� EF Financial Data

AIRPORTS

� I Airport traffic by airport

� I-S Total traffic of all the airports in the territory of a State

� J Financial data

AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES PROVIDERS

� K Financial data

� L Traffic

CIVIL AIRCRAFT ON REGISTER

� H Number of aircraft in the register

� EF Financial Data

AIRPORTS

� I Airport traffic by airport

� I-S Total traffic of all the airports in the territory of a State

� J Financial data

AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES PROVIDERS

� K Financial data

� L Traffic

CIVIL AIRCRAFT ON REGISTER

� H Number of aircraft in the register

Most popular seriesMost popular series

Match MultiMatch Multi--Stage and single LegStage and single Leg

88

Flight Stages

paxA - B 120A - C 50A - D 30B - C 80B - D 25C - D 60

TOTAL 365

A - B B - C C - D12050 5030 30 30

8025 25

60

200 185 500

OFOD

� 23-27 Nov 2009: Tenth Session of the Statistics Division (STA/10)

� RECOMMENDED AMENDMENTS IN THE CURRENT AIR TRANSPORT REPORTING FORMS:� PARTIAL REMOVAL OF THE OFOD PUBLICATION RESTRICTIONS

� A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION

� 23-27 Nov 2009: Tenth Session of the Statistics Division (STA/10)

� RECOMMENDED AMENDMENTS IN THE CURRENT AIR TRANSPORT REPORTING FORMS:� PARTIAL REMOVAL OF THE OFOD PUBLICATION RESTRICTIONS

� A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION

STA/10 OutputsSTA/10 Outputs

� A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION

� POSTING OF A LIST OF WORLDWIDE LCCS

� NEED TO NOMINATE DGCA´S FOCAL POINTS FOR STATISTICS, ETC..

� RECOMMENDED NEW DATA COLLECTIONS AND PROCESSES IMPLEMENTATION

� To implement a form on aviation personnel licenses and training

� To introduce a new collection process on fuel consumption by commercial air carriers

� ETC…

� A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION

� POSTING OF A LIST OF WORLDWIDE LCCS

� NEED TO NOMINATE DGCA´S FOCAL POINTS FOR STATISTICS, ETC..

� RECOMMENDED NEW DATA COLLECTIONS AND PROCESSES IMPLEMENTATION

� To implement a form on aviation personnel licenses and training

� To introduce a new collection process on fuel consumption by commercial air carriers

� ETC…

Internal and external surveysInternal and external surveys

Research objectives:

Research was required amongst existing:

�Internal users to ICAO STA site (free access) and

�External users to ICAOData.com

Research objectives:

� Understand which information is important in users’ job roles

� Explore how the data accessed from both sites are used

� Identify any improvements which users would like to see

Methodology

� An online survey was emailed to around 1000 users and subscribers

� An incentive of entry into a free prize draw was offered to boost response

� External users: a 10% response rate & Internal users: a 21% response rate

Some general commentsSome general commentsSome general commentsSome general comments

“The content is quite useful. The reason it doesn't score higher is the confusing layout and difficulty finding what you want.

“Very frustrating when trying to access data at an aggregated level.”

“ICAO secure site is very important for ICAO membership countries…there they can find many important and useful information’’

“Great source of air transport information, very useful for data analyses.”

“I find it invaluable for my research so I am sure my peers would find it equally useful”

“Very frustrating when trying to access data at an aggregated level.”

“Data has proven not to be particularly helpful as at times quite unreliable”

“Very useful information…the data collected and disseminated by ICAO are very useful to the Aviation Statistics Centre of Canada as they complement our own aviation programme”

79%

32%

27%

Carry out air transport industry analysis and market studies

Produce reports for internal customers

Produce reports for external

Usage of the dataUsage of the data

62%Carry out air transport industry

analysis and market studies

ExternalExternal usersusersExternalExternal usersusers

InternalInternal usersusersInternalInternal usersusers

Data from ICAO are most often usedto carry out industry analysis and market studiesData from ICAO are most often usedto carry out industry analysis and market studies

27%

23%

16%

11%

4%

Produce reports for external customers

Import ICAO data into own database

Use to help generate sales / business leads

Academic purposes

Other

Spontaneous response

Other: To construct a model, To understand safety issues

62%

71%

26%

25%

11%

analysis and market studies

Produce reports for internal customers

Produce reports for external customers

Import ICAO data into own database

Other Security & Safety analysesForecastsBilateral negotiations

ExcellentFair

18%

Poor

4%

Users´ OpinionUsers´ Opinion

ExternalExternal usersusersExternalExternal usersusers InternalInternal usersusersInternalInternal usersusers

Excellent

18%

Fair

14%

Poor

2%

Excellent

29%

Good

49%

18%

Good

66%

Around 80% rate both sites as excellent or goodAround 80% rate both sites as excellent or good

66% 23% 10%Airline Traffic Statistics

Essential Important (but not essential) Not useful (but I am interested) Not useful or interesting

Rating of different types of information Rating of different types of information according to importance according to importance Rating of different types of information Rating of different types of information according to importance according to importance

Airline and airport traffic statistics are equally essential for most respondentsAirline and airport traffic statistics are equally essential for most respondents

InternalInternal & External users& External usersInternalInternal & External users& External users

55%

43%

30%

32%

30%

65%

10%

18%

32%

37%

32%

39%

42%

26%

27%

31%

12%

18%

29%

24%

25%

8%

35%

36%

1%

2%

9%

5%

3%

1%

6%

15%

Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Origin / Destination)

Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Traffic by Flight stage)

Airline Financial Results

Airline Fleet Information - Utilisation

Airline Fleet Information - Fleet size

Airport traffic information

Airport financial information

Airline Personnel and remuneration statistics

�General comments referred to improving the quality of data already available by:

•.Completing and updating the missing data for airlines and airports (for consistency purposes)

• Providing the recent years for airlines data

Suggested Improvements to both sitesSuggested Improvements to both sites

�New data collection:

� Up-to-date Bilateral Air Services Agreements (ASAs)

�Fuel consumption by a/c type

� CO2 emissions by air carrier �Data processing:

�Country breakdown on incidents and accidents

�Traffic statistics for General Aviation

�Data processing:

� Improve set up and layout of the

websites, seen as old-fashioned

and not user friendly

�Include pictures, graphs, etc..

� Send emails to users every time

new data are available

� Install an online application that

make calculation easier”

�Additional information requested:

� ICAO training programmes schedule

�List of focal points in each DGCA

Current layout of the statistics siteCurrent layout of the statistics site

Layout and data processingLayout and data processing

The projected new ICAO data websiteThe projected new ICAO data website

Why do we need Statistics?

� Air travel safety rates

� The environmental impact on air transport

� The sustainability of air transport development

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeICAO Statistics Programme

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

50

55

60

65

70

Fu

el

bu

rn

AAGR 1998-2008+2.5 %

Fuel consumption and efficiency evolution

1919

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Fu

el

bu

rn

Fuel consumed (USG) Lts per 100 ATK

AAGR 1998-2008-1.7 %

Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable

Why do we need Statistics?

� Air travel safety rates

� The environmental impact on air transport

� The sustainability of air transport development

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeICAO Statistics Programme

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

2 – Analyse the air transport market

Regional traffic overview for 2010 Regional traffic overview for 2010

North America

Intal Traffic: 6.2%

Dom Traffic: 1.5%

Europe

Intal Traffic: 6.7%

Dom Traffic: 12.2%

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Intal Traffic: 12.9%

Dom Traffic: 15.1%

Latin America

Intal Traffic: 11.4%

Dom Traffic: 15.9%

Africa

Intal Traffic: 10%

Dom Traffic: 4%

Middle East

Intal Traffic: 21%

Dom Traffic: 3.6%

World

Traffic: 8%

Capacity: 3.7%

Load Factor: +2 Pt

Market shares* achievedMarket shares* achieved

North America

Africa *3%

International passenger International passenger

traffictraffic**** Domestic passenger Domestic passenger

traffictraffic****

Africa *

International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger trafficInternational traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic

* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region

Europe 41%

Latin America4%

North America 17%

Asia Pacific 25%

3%

Middle East 10%

North America

55%

Africa *1%

Middle East 1%

Latin America 5%

Europe 8%

Asia Pacific 30%

**Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre

Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impactTraffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact

North America

World

Preliminary 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012

4.4%

Regional traffic* growth forecastsRegional traffic* growth forecasts

Source: ICAO

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

RPKs Growth in %

2000-2010 average growth

*Traffic of airlines domiciled in each region expressed in RPKs

Why do we need Statistics?

� Air travel safety rates

� The environmental impact on air transport

� The sustainable air transport development

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeICAO Statistics Programme

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

2 – Analyse the air transport market

3– Assess the impact of new regulations

40%

50%

60%

40%

50%Number of frequencies

Number of country-pair routes

As a % of international scheduled services

Air transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangements

Frequencies Country pairs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995 1999 2004 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

Source : ICAO

Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines´ mergers and acquisitionsToward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines´ mergers and acquisitions

3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic

Most well-known Non Aligned airlines

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The statements made herein are based onthe mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where thesupporting grounds for these statementsare not shown, ICAO will be pleased toexplain the basis thereof.