author: john james murray, phd student in education title ...€¦ · natural resources but rapidly...
TRANSCRIPT
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
i
Author:JohnJamesMurray,PhDStudentinEducation
Title:ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy
(Part1)
Abstract:
TherecentPlanetaryBoundariesconceptualframeworkoftheStockholmResilienceCentre
providesthebasisforinstitutingaglobalefforttounderstanddeeplythecriticalEarthsystemsupon
whichtheenduranceofhumansocietiesdepends.TheemergenceofanAnthropocenePeriodofhuman
activitysimilarlyarguespersuasivelyforhumanitytoappreciateitspositionasahigh-impactspeciesof
geologicalandgeochemicalsignificance.Takentogether,thepresentconditionsprovidefertilityfor
consideringanewvisionofwhatitmeanstobeeducatedinthesciencesinsucceedinggenerations.Any
newvisionforscienceeducationshouldaccountforthescalesatwhichhumanityanditsscienceare
currentlyoperationalandimpactful.Thatis,thecouplingofboundaryconditionsatplanetaryscalesto
thelocalandregionalscalesatwhichhumandevelopmentoccurscreatesconditionsforeducationnot
requiredbyprevioussocieties.ReportedherearethefirstresultsofaDelphistudyoftheexpert
communityconcerningthefutureofscienceeducationinCanada.Theobjectiveoftheresearchwasto
empiricallydeterminelevelsofconsensusconcerningtheprincipaltheoreticalfoundationsandthe
effectsofsystemconditionsforthenextgenerationofscienceeducationinCanada.Theresearchwas
conductedthroughanonline,anonymous,andfutures-orientedmodifiedDelphimethodology.Overa
five-monthperiod,anassembledexpertpanelderivedfrom130peer-acknowledged,criteria-
referenced,andrepresentativescienceeducationspecialistsfromCanada-comprisingfourteen
identifiableprofessionalaffiliationsintwocohorts-participatedinaDelphihavingthreerounds.The
outcomeoftheresearchwassettingprioritiesamong47themesacrossfivemajordomainstogether
witharicharrayofparticipantcommentary.Thisfirst-of-kindstudyidentifiedanumberofconsensus
positionsinaccordancewithstandardstatisticalcriteriaheldascustomaryinaDelphiapproach.These
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
ii
consensuspositionsoccuracrossthreeprincipalareasexpectedtohavehighimpactonCanadian
scienceeducationinthecomingdecades:(1)identificationofsignificantnationalandinternational
globalizationtrends;(2)settingoutthefoundationsandgoalsofscienceeducation;and;(3)describing
thecontextforthefutureofscienceeducationinCanada.Thefindingsofthestudyprovideanewbasis
for,andconstitutepotentialnewchallengesto,scienceeducationinCanadaandarguepersuasivelyfor
situatingthesustainabilityofhumansocietieswithinourplanet’ssystemsasbeingcentraltothe
purposesofscienceeducationinternationally.SustainabilityScience,Technology,Economyand
Environment(SSTEE)ispresentedasaguidingfoundationforscienceeducation.Thisterminology
constitutesanewtensionforsciencecurriculumdevelopment,anddirectlychallenges(or
complements)therapidemergenceofScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(STEM)asa
basisforsciencecurriculumreforminthepresentinternationalcontext.
Keywords:Canadianscienceeducation,sciencecurriculum,modifiedDelphistudy,STEMeducation,
planetaryboundaries,educationforsustainability.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
1
Introduction
ThePlanetaryBoundaries(PB)conceptualframeworkoftheStockholmResilienceCentre,
includingitsmostrecentrevisionsandupdating,providesthebasisforinstitutingaglobaleffortto
understanddeeplythecriticalEarthsystemsuponwhichtheenduranceofhumansocietiesdepends
(Rockströmetal.2009a,b;Steffenetal.2015).Theeffortstodelineatethenineboundarieswhich
providealong-term“safeoperatingspaceforhumansocieties”hasattractedconsiderablefocusonthe
PBconceptamongthespheresofgovernance,policy,andtheeconomybutitsconceptualbasishasyet
toreachthediscourseofscienceeducation.TheemergenceofanAnthropocenePeriodofhuman
activitysimilarlyarguespersuasivelyforhumanitytoappreciateitspositionasahigh-impactspeciesof
geologicalandgeochemicalsignificance(Steffen,CrutzenandMcNeill,2007;Crutzen,2002).Inmyview,an
appreciationfortheconsequencesofhigh-impactasaspeciesoncriticalenvironmentalandhuman-
constructedsystemsdemandsareconsiderationoftheverypurposesofscienceeducationinthe
modern,internationalcontext.Theaboveconsiderations,takentogetherwithpresentconditionsand
quitepossiblyunknowablefutureconditionsforhumansocieties,providesfertilityfortheconceptionof
anewvisionofwhatitmeanstobeeducatedinthesciences.Statedanotherway,thetimeisopportune
toconsiderseriouslytherationaleformaintainingscienceeducationinsystemsofformaleducationina
recognizableformatatimewhenplanetary-scalesystemsareexperiencingunprecedentedlevelsof
stressduetohumanactivities.Inaddition,systemsofeducationinmanypartsoftheworldhave
enthusiasticallyembracedthesubstantialdiversityofaspirationsandgoalswhich,collectively,actto
providedefinitiontowhatitmeanstolivesustainablyonaplanethavingconsiderablehumanand
naturalresourcesbutrapidlystressingtheverysystemsuponwhichsustainablesocietiesmustbe
grounded(Griggsetal.2013).
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
2
ThisarticlepresentstotheManitobagraduatestudentandresearchercommunitiesthefindings
ofarecentdoctoraldissertationDelphistudyconductedinCanadawhichsoughttoexplicitlyand
empiricallydeterminelevelsofconsensusconcerningtheprincipaltheoreticalfoundationsandthe
effectsofsystemconditionsforthenextgenerationofscienceeducationinCanada1.Theresearchwas
conductedthroughanonline,anonymous,andasynchronousmodifiedDelphimethodology.Overafive-
monthperiod,anassembledexpertpanelderivedfrom(N=130)peer-acknowledged,criteria-
referenced,andrepresentativescienceeducationspecialistsfromCanadaparticipatedintheDelphi
havingthreerounds-comprisingfourteenidentifiableprofessionalaffiliationsintwocohorts.The
cohortsweredesignedtorepresenttwodistinctperiodsofprofessionalactivitywithrespecttothe
sciencesandscienceeducation.Onecohortcouldbedescribedasaveterangroupwhoseindividuals
hadmorethantwentyyearsofprofessionalexperiencetobringtobearonthequestionsofCanadian
scienceeducation,andasecondcohortjustreachingtheircareermidpoints.
Thestudywasdeemedopportuneandtimelyacrossthreeprincipalareasofconsideration–
history,emergence,andCanadiancontext2:
1) History:CanadianscienceeducationisatapointwherethehistoriceffortoftheScience
CouncilofCanada(SCC)whichculminatedinthe1984releaseofScienceforEveryStudent:
EducatingCanadiansforTomorrow’sWorld,isnow30yearsbehindus(Orpwood,1985;
OrpwoodandSouque,1984;1985;ScienceCouncilCanada,1984a;b;c);about20yearshave
passedsincetheCouncilofMinistersofEducation,Canada(CMEC)initiatedtheprimarily
bureaucraticprocessthatresultedintheCommonFrameworkofScienceLearningOutcomes
K-12:Pan-CanadianProtocolforCollaborationonSchoolCurriculum(CMEC,1997;hereafter
1Thefulltextofthestudy(Murray,2014)isavailableonlineat:http://hdl.handle.net/1993/30080.2ForamoreextensivetreatmentofthehistoricalperspectiveswhichhaveshapedCanadianscienceeducationsincethelate1950’s,andinformedthisstudy,readersareencouragedtoconsultchapter2inMurray(2014).
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
3
theCommonFramework).Thispan-Canadianeffortresultedinanationalconsensusona
frameworkofsciencelearningoutcomeswasunabletoovercomethebarrierspresentedby
strongprovincialresponsibilityforeducationandcurriculuminCanadaandultimatelyfailed
tobeaprojectunifyingthevisionforscienceeducation.
2) Emergence:TheNextGenerationScienceStandards(AchieveIncorporated,2010;2013;
NationalResearchCouncil(NRC),2012)providesacharacterizationofscienceeducation
drivenstronglybycorporatist,bureaucratic,andScience,Technology,Engineeringand
Mathematics(STEM)influenceswhicharesimultaneouslycommonplaceinthescience
educationdiscourseandbeingadoptedratheruncriticallybycertainAmericanstatesand
theirscienceeducators.
3) Canadiancontext:CanadaisacircumpolarnationwitharelativelysmallpopulationinG20
termsandinpossessionofecosystemsservicesonanimmensescaleduetoitsgeographic
extent;Canadaisalsohometoasensitivearcticenvironment,largeIndigenouspeoples’
communities,andparticipatesintheinternationalcommunityamidstgrowinginfluencesof
neo-liberaleconomics,globalisationpatterns,anditsowngrowingfossilfuelimprintonthe
planet’satmosphere.
Eachofthethreeareasofconsiderationjustmentionedholdstheattentionofaninternationalaudience
byvirtueofechoesintheirrespectivecountriesandregionsoftheworld.Forinstance,thoughthe
projectdescribedherewasconductedinCanada,therewasarecognitionattheoutsetthatmuchof
whatwouldcomeforwardintheresearchwouldhavepotentiallybroaderinternationalappeal.The
reasonforthisispartlyhistoricalinsofarasmanysciencecurriculathroughouttheworldfordecades
demonstratecommonfoundationalaspectswhichcanbetracedtoveryinfluentialdocument
frameworksdevelopedinnationssuchasAustralia,Canada,NewZealand,theUnitedKingdom,andthe
UnitedStates(Alters,1997).Point(1)aboveemphasesthisbyvirtueofacontrast:theeffortsoftheSCC
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
4
intheearly1980sinCanadawerearguablythemostinfluentialuptothatpointintimeinidentifying
uniquecontextsforCanadianscienceeducationbutbecameamerefootnotetotheCommon
Frameworkdevelopedinthemid-1990swhichhadasitsbasisU.S.reformframeworks.Suchframework
influenceswhich,onoccasion,havebeenaresponsetoperceivedcriticalpointsinanation’sposition
withrespecttoscienceandtechnologyeducationhavebeenknowntoextendtheirreachbeyondtheir
designatedtargetaudience.Thatis,toothercountries’sciencecurriculawhichdidnotsharethesame
reasonsforenteringintocurriculumreform.
Point(2)aboveraisesatensionabouttheinfluencesandeffectsofscienceeducationalsloganism
andthenatureofscienceeducationmovingdeeperinto21stcenturylearning.Inrespecttoeducational
sloganismweareremindedoftheseminalworkonslogansystemsinthemannerofKomisarand
McClellan(1961).Theirissuewitheducationalsloganismwasprincipallyduetoarecognitionthat
trendswithmonikersoracronymswere“systematicallyambiguous”.Bybee(2010)indicatedthatthe
“associatedambiguity”ofusingtheSTEMsloganamongpolicies,programsandpracticesinscience
educationforcesanecessaryclarificationofthepurposeofSTEMeducationwhichmayproveelusive.
AccordingtoRoberts(1983),sciencecurriculummusthavemultivariateinfluencesandanorientation
thatreconcilesschoolscience,thenaturalsciences,thenatureofscience,andthenatureofhistory.
Sucha“logicofslogans”fostersarecognitionthatmovementssuchasScience,Technology,Society,and
theEnvironment(STSE),andSTEMhavecontributedto,andcancontinuetocontributeto,science
education.Thesuggestionhereisthatanyparticularcurriculumframeworkorientationmaybedeemed
necessarybysome,butisnotasufficientcontributorintheabsenceofvarietyinvisionsforscience
education.RecentinternationaleffortstogathercurrentreportingonSTEMhasprovidednewinsights
fromSouthAfrica,Korea,China,Taiwan,Japan,Brazil,Canada,theU.S.,theU.K.,Australia,New
Zealand,France,Finland,andtheRussianFederation(Marginson,2015;Freeman,MarginsonandTytler,
2015).Thistypeofinternationalreporting,particularlythefreshnessofattemptstoaddressthelackof
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
5
world-widepolicyinformationandprogrammeparticipationinSTEM,hasbecomeanareaof
importancegiventheenergeticresearchinthisareabeingconductedinCanadainrecentyears(Amgen
Canada,2012;Let’sTalkScience,2014).Descriptionsof21stcenturylearningareasmyriadasthevariety
ofarticleswhichseektodelineatewhatthetermimplies.Aboutadecadeago,Osborne(2007)argued
that“thedominantformofscienceeducationthatiscommonacrosstheworldrestsonasetofvalues
thathavenomerit”,asetof“arcaneculturalnorms”(p.173).Hefurtherarguedthatthesetof
conditionsneededforfuturepractitionersofsciencewere(andperhapsstillremain)quitedifferentthan
thoseofthefuturecitizen.Continuingtomakeattemptsthroughcurriculum,pedagogy,andassessment
toservicebothoftheseneedscannotpossiblysucceed.Thereislikelyacertainlevelofagreement,
perhapsevenemerginginternationalconsensus,aboutwhatatrulyeffectiveandappropriate21st
centuryeducationinthescienceswouldentail,butIsuggestthatweruntheriskofbecomingentrained
inanotherformofeducationalsloganismifweweretoadmitthatwehavearrivedataconsensus
position.
Point(3)holdsimportanceinternationallybyvirtueoftheemphasescurrentlybeingplacedupon
therelationshipbetweencultureandscienceeducation,notablyincountriessuchasNewZealand,
Australia,Canada,theU.S.,andJapan.Thesenations,andothers,havehistorically-placedcolonizing
influencesineducationleavingalegacywhereIndigenouspeoplesaresubjectedtodominantcultural
influenceswithinthecurriculum,maywellbeinneedofanalternativevisionforSTEMeducationwhere
students“bordercrossintothesub-cultureofthesciences”(AikenheadandSutherland,2015;
Aikenhead,2006)andarestrugglingwiththecomplexitiesofdisproportionateinstitutionalaccess,lower
studentsuccessrates,andbecominganincreasinglyimportantsegmentoftheCanadianpopulationin
economicterms(Freeman,MarginsonandTytler,2015).Moreover,itistobeexpectedthatculturally-
responsivesciencecurriculumandteachingwillremaincontentiousinthediscoursesonscience
curriculum(GondweandLongnecker,2014).InacountrysuchasCanada,Indigenousperspectivesand
Murray, John (EAL)� 2015-2-17 2:14 PMDeleted:where
Murray, John (EAL)� 2015-2-17 2:14 PMDeleted:provide
Murray, John (EAL)� 2015-2-17 2:14 PMDeleted:situation
Murray, John (EAL)� 2015-2-17 2:14 PMDeleted:andoftenmust
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
6
worldviewshavereachedapositionofexplicitstatusincertainCanadianprovincialsciencecurriculaand
areinseparablefromtheidentificationoftheaspirationsofthecountryandthefutureofhumanrights
inafederationofstates(WeinribandJones,2015).
ConnectionstoInternationalTrendsinScienceEducationCanadianscienceeducationpolicytodayisrapidlymovinginthedirectionofaSTEMfocuswith
itsprovincesembeddedinthelargersynthesisasafederationandalsointernationally.Inabackground
consultingreportpreparedbyWeinribandJones(2013)fortheAustralianCouncilofLearned
Academies’(ACOLA)volume,SecuringAustralia’sFutureSTEM:CountryComparisons,theseauthors
providedaveryfavourableoutlookforCanadianSTEMeducationatthepost-secondarylevelsofmore
advancedstudy.ItrecognisedthatCanadahasthechallengeofencouragingnationalscienceeducation
initiativesbutwithnofederal-levelministrytosetthevisionforscienceeducationoramechanismto
exertbindingpolicyinfluencesamongtheCanadianprovinces.Theirreportdid,however,identifythe
importantandofteninfluentialrolesplayedbyexternalstakeholderorganizationsinCanadasuchasthe
CMEC(1997),theCouncilofCanadianAcademies(CCA,2012;2014),andAmgen/Let’sTalkScience
(Amgen,Inc.,2012).TheACOLAinitiativehasbeensummarizedinanewly-releasedsetofcountry
comparisonsintheeditedvolumetitled‘TheAgeofSTEM’.Inthatcollection,Freeman,Marginsonand
Tytler(2015)provideabundantevidencethatSTEMeducationisshapingpolicy-makinginadiversityof
nationsaroundtheworld,andofteninsomeverynation-specificorcontext-specificways.
Inasimilarvein,theCanadianCouncilofChiefExecutivesreleaseditsbrief,Competinginthe
21stCenturySkillsRace(Orpwood,Schmidt&Jun,2012),andnotedthattheproportionofCanadian
studentsinSTEMprogramsatthepost-secondarylevelswasweakwhencomparedwiththerobust50%
inthePeople’sRepublicofChina.Theiranalysisraisedwhattheauthorsdescribedassome
“uncomfortablequestionsforCanadians”,suchas:
Murray, John (EAL)� 2015-2-17 2:14 PMDeleted:byWeinrib&Jones(2013)
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
7
• WhataretheskillsthatwillenableCanadatocompetesuccessfullyinthe21stcentury,and
whatinstitutionalarrangementswillensurethis?
• HowcanCanadadevelopeducationalpoliciesandplansgearedtonationaleconomic
prioritieswhenourConstitutiongivestheprovincesandterritoriesexclusiveresponsibility
foreducation?
• Whatwillittaketoconvincepolicy-makersandthepublicthateducationisaninvestment
inoureconomicfuture(particularlyforindigenousCanadians)andnotmerelyasocialcost?
• Howwillwemeettheneedformorescientists,engineers,andtechnologistswhenour
post-secondarysystemislargelydrivenbystudentchoice,and,wheninsufficientnumbers
ofstudentsseeminclinedtopursue[STEM]careers?
• Inwhatwayscanschools,colleges,universities,libraries,museumsandotherinstitutions
helptoimproveCanadianeducationaloutcomes?(Orpwood,Schmidt&Jun,2012;p.4)
Thefirst,secondandfourthquestionsinthislistessentiallyframetheproblemof“whatkindof
scienceeducationisdesirableforCanadianstudents?”andgeneratedtheresearchfocuswhichguided
thestudydescribedinthisarticle.First,therewasaneedforalogicofconsensusastowhatconstitutes
“21stcenturyskills”intheSTEMsystemofeducationduetothecontinuingill-definitionofthetermand
thegrowingpreponderanceofSTEMterminologyintheCanadianscienceeducationliterature;
secondly,thestubborndilemmaofseekingafteraCanada-wideconsensusonscienceeducationforthe
nextgenerationamidsttherealityoftightly-heldprovincialjurisdictionalcontrolofCanada’seducation
systems,and;thirdly,whatwillcharacterisemanyofthetrends,pressures,andprioritiesthatwillbethe
principaldriversofscienceeducationreform(orreconstruction)inCanadaoverthenextgeneration?
Theseandrelatedquestionsformedthebasisforthedevelopmentofthestudyoutlinedhere,and
frameditsstructureandorientation.Thenextsectionofthearticlewillprovideabriefhistoricalaccount
oftheDelphitechniqueasaresearchmethodologyandhowitsnaturealignswiththestudypresented
here.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
8
TheUseoftheDelphiApproachasMethodTheDelphimethodofanonymousforecastingwasoriginallydevelopedunderclassified
circumstancesinthelate1950sbyresearchersattheRANDCorporationinCalifornia,becomingde-
classifiedasamethodologyonlyintheearly1960s.TwoRANDresearchers–NormanDalkeyandOlaf
Helmer-Hirschberg–openeduptheDelphimethodtoabroaderforecastingcommunitywiththeir
publishedaccountofhowtheU.S.AirForcecametounderstand(throughtheopinionsofitsexperts)
thenumberofatomicweaponsnecessarytoreduceoverallexpendituresonconventionalmunitionsby
aprescribedamount–andtoconstructthescenariofromthestandpointofaSoviet-eraplanner(Dalkey
&Helmer-Hirschberg,1963).Ina30-yearretrospectiveontheuseofDelphi(andlookingaheadasthe
forecastingtechniquewoulddemand),LinstoneandTuroff(2011)providetheirthoughtsonthe
evolutionofDelphitechniquesandpossibilitiesforitsfuture.Intheirsummaryobservationsregarding
thefutureofDelphi,theystatethat:
“ThefutureofDelphiwillbeincollaborativeorganizationalandcommunityplanningsystems that are continuous, dispersed, and asynchronous.....it will replace theimpact of controlled surveys as amechanism of influencing various organizationalandcommunitydecisionprocesses.Thesewillallowmanythousands toparticipateorobserveanongoingplanningprocess.”(p.1718)
TheDelphiapproachisconsideredtobeuniquelysituatedtotheanalysisoftopicsandissuesfor
whichthereislittlehistoricalprecedent(Martino,1972),whererapidlychangingeventsareoccurringor
areconsideredtobeimminent(Patton,2002),andthosethathavehighlevelsofconnectivityand
complexitysuchassettingeducationalgoalsorconstructinginnovativecurriculum(Sweigertand
Schabacker,1974).AccordingtoFranklinandHart(2007)therearethreeinterestareasforresearchers
whoareseekingtocollectandanalysethejudgmentsofanexpertcommunity:a)todocumentand
assessthosejudgmentsfromthestandpointoftheresearcheralsobeingamongtheexpertcommunity
(Stewart,2001;Powell,2003);b)capturetheareasofcollectiveknowledgeamongprofessionalsthat
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
9
areoftennotverbalizedorexplored(StewartandShamdanasi,1990),and;c)forcenewideastoemerge
aboutthetopic.TothesethreeareasofinterestIwouldaddafourth–thatofcreatinganovellearning
experienceamongthepanelofexpertswithinthefieldofexpertiseunderexamination.
Inessence,theDelphiapproachseekstoallowforacomplexproblemtobeaddressed,
anonymously,byapanelofselected‘experts’underthecontrolofaresearcherorprojectleaderwho
guidestheprocess.TherearethreefeaturesoftheDelphiapproachthatarecommonlyincludedand
distinguishitfromotherformsofgroupinterrogativeresearch,namely:1)anonymousgroup
interactionsandresponsestoguidingquestionsorstatementsthathaveafutureorientation;2)multiple
iterationsofsharinggroupresponses(oftenwithassociatedfeedbackloops)andthecreationofnew
questionnairesthatrefinetheresponsesofpreviousroundsofquestioning;and3)presentationofthe
resultstogroupmemberswithacoresetofdescriptivestatisticalanalyses(Cochran,1983).Murryand
Hammons(1995)identifiedfourprincipaladvantagesoftheDelphiapproachinsecuringtheopinionsof
experts:
• TheDelphiprocessmakesuseofgroupdecision-makingtechniquesthatinvolveexpertsinthefield,thoughttohavegreatervaliditythantheopinionsofindividuals.
• Theanonymityoftheprocess(e.g.,useofquestionnaires)helpstoavoidsomeoftheproblemsassociatedwithface-to-facegroups:forinstancedeferencetoauthority,speciouspersuasiontechniques,oralfacility,andreluctancetomodifypositionsalreadyknownpublicly,andgroup“bandwagoneffects”.
• Theconsensusreachedbythegroup(hopefully)reflectsreasonedopinionsbecausetheDelphiprocessforcesgroupmemberstoconsideronlytheproblemathandandprovidewrittenresponses.
• Thegroupofexpertscanbegeographicallyseparatedfromoneanotherandrendercontributionsatminimalcosttotheresearcher(s).
Theaboveadvantagescanbeconsideredasantidotestotheshortcomingsandseriousobstructions
comingfromface-to-facedeliberationsasoutlinedinUhl(1983),including:
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
10
• Groupopinionishighlyinfluencedbydominantindividualswhousuallymonopoliseadiscussion,withlittlecorrelationbetweenverbosityandone’sactualknowledgeofthesubjectmatterunderdiscussion;
• Muchdiscussioningroupsituations,whilehavingtheexternalappearanceofbeingproblem-oriented,iseitherirrelevantorbiasedbecauseitisusuallymoreconcernedwithindividualandgroupintereststhanwithproblem-solving,and;
• Individualjudgmentcanbedistortedbygrouppressurestoconform(p.82).
Inordertodetermineatleastafirst-orderjustificationforusingDelphiinthisstudy,itwas
importanttoidentifyintheliteratureanexampleofaDelphistudywhichsharedstrongconnectionsto
thedesignofthisstudy,wasrelateddirectlytoscienceeducation,andalsohadsufficientpeer
acknowledgement.OneofthebestknownDelphistudiesofthelastfifteenyearsinscienceeducation
providedamorethansufficientmodel.ThiswastheDelphiexamining“ideasaboutthenatureof
science”ofOsborne,Collins,Ratcliffe,MillarandDuschl(2003).
Indiscussingtheiruseofathree-roundDelphidesign,certaindisadvantagesofthetechnique
wereidentifiedbyOsborneetal.alongsidemanyoftheadvantagesoutlinedearlierinthissection.
Amongtheperceiveddifficultiestheyidentified,thefollowingarepertinenttothepresentdiscussion:
(1)thelengthoftheprocess(itgenerallyrequiresabout6to8monthsforthedatacollectionphases);
(2)thepotentialoftheresearchertoinordinatelyinfluencethequestionnaireformulation,and;(3)the
difficultyofassessingappropriatelytheexpertiseofthegroupsincetheparticipantsneveractually
meet.InadditiontothesepotentialthreatstoresearchintegrityinaDelphiapproachwecanaddthe
followingconsiderations:providingrespondentswithadequateguidancewhileavoidingundue
direction,refiningwithjustificationtheprocessofdefiningthequalitiesofa“scienceeducationexpert”,
selectingandmaintainingthemembershipoftheexpertpanel,anddeterminingwhattheoperational
definitionofpanelconsensusistobe.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
11
TheResearchObjectivesandProceduresThecentralpurposeofthisstudyofscienceeducationinCanadawastoengageanassembled
‘expertcommunity’ofscienceeducators,andthosewithdeepinterestsandcommitmentstoscience
education,toidentifythepurposesforCanadianscienceeducationgoingforward.Toaccomplishthis
principalobjective,anexpertpanelwasconvenedtoparticipateinaDelphiforecastingexercisewhich
soughttoframetheprobleminawaywhichcapitalizedonmanyoftheadvantagesoftheDelphijust
describedintheprevioussection.Thestudyincludedanumberofsub-objectives,butforthepurposes
ofthisarticletherewillbeaconcentrationonjusttwoofthese:
a. Todescribeandgivedefinitiontotheeducationsystemconditionsthatwillinfluence
futuredevelopmentsinscienceeducationinCanada,and;
b. Todetermineanddescribetheprincipalfoundationsandgoalsforthefutureofscience
educationwithaviewtochangingcurriculumemphases.
ChoiceofExpertPanelMembersDuringtheperiodNovembertoDecember,2013,alistofcandidateparticipantswasassembled
byaccessingpubliclyavailable,onlinecontactinformationacrossthefollowingdomainsofprofessional
activityinCanada:
• Seniorcivilservants inMinistriesofEducationinallCanadianProvincesandTerritories
responsibleforscienceeducation
• Provincial science specialists in Ministries of Education in all Canadian Provinces and
Territories; itwas considered an asset if therewas direct involvement as a lead for a
provincialsciencecurriculumprojectand/ordemonstratedworkonthe1997CMECPan-
CanadianScienceProject(1995-1997)
• Past recipients (1993 to 2013) of a Canada Prime Minister’s Excellence in Teaching
Certificate (at all grade levels K-12 where the recipient’s biography indicated a
preferencefortheteachingofscience)
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
12
• TheCouncilofCanadianAcademies’ ExpertPanelsworkingoncurrentassessmentsor
onescompletedsince2008
• TheCanadianSpaceAgency’sastronautcorps(activeandretired)
• Researchers who worked on the Science Council of Canada study (1981-1984) or
authoredbackgroundpapersfortheCouncil’sefforts
• DeansofCanadianuniversitymedicalschools
• Teacher-educatorsinfacultiesofeducationinCanadiancollegeoruniversitysettings
• A randomized selection from among Tier 1 Canada Research Chairs in the natural
sciences, science education, and engineering, generally representative of geographic
dispersioninCanada(N=830inrandomsample,whereN(selected)=20)
Theexpertpanelofparticipantswasdividedintotwocohortsbasedonprofessionalexperience,
andweretomeet(ataminimum)oneormoreofthefollowingcriteria:i. ForCOHORT1,acknowledgedasamemberofatleastoneofthefollowingscienceeducation
communitiesinCanada:academicsciences(facultyorgraduatestudent),provincial/territorial
ministryofeducationasascienceeducationspecialistordirectorofcurriculum,teacher-
educatorinafacultyofeducation,ascienceteacherhavingreceivedaPrimeMinister’s
CertificateofTeachingExcellence,aninstructoratacollegeofappliedartsandtechnology,or
activeinthemediaforthepurposesofthepublicunderstandingofscience;allsatisfiedaneed
tobeapractitionerinscienceeducationsincetheeraoftheearly1990stothepresentand
furtheridentifiedbypeerinfluencestogetherwiththeresearcher’sopinionasbeinga
respectedexpertinthefieldofCanadianscienceeducationthroughacombinationof
publications,formalandinformalpresentations,notedcontributionstoschools,school
divisions,curriculumandprogramdevelopment,orparticipationinorganisationsdedicatedto
theadvancementofscienceteachingandlearning.
ii. ForCOHORT2,criteriawereasin(i)above,butwiththeexceptionofhavingbeena
practitionerorresearcherinthesciences,alliedfields,orscienceeducationasearlyasthe
1960stothe1980sandinsomecasestothepresenttime;
iii. Presentlyemployed,orhavinghelddirectexperiencein,oneormoreofthefollowing:
a. Provincial/Territorialscienceeducationspecialist,curriculumconsultant,director,officer,
assistantdeputyministerordeputyministerofaCanadianeducationministry;
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
13
b. Collegeoruniversityfacultyinscienceeducationortherelatedsciencespecialties(e.g.,
engineering,appliedsciences,etc.);
c. K-12scienceeducationwithhavingworkedinsciencecurriculumdevelopmentdeemedas
anasset;inthecaseofpracticingscienceteachers,allinCOHORT1weresampledfrom
thosewhoheldaPrimeMinister’sAwardforTeachingExcellenceintheperiod2004to
2013;thoseinCOHORT2weresampledfromthosewhoheldaPrimeMinister’sAwardfor
TeachingExcellenceCertificateintheperiod1993to2003;
d. Sciencemediaandthepublicunderstandingofscience;
e. ProvidedexpertiseorbackgroundstudiestotheScienceCouncilofCanadastudyinthe
period1980–1984;
f. Providedexpertiseto,ordirectlyconnectedtodecision-makinginthedevelopmentofthe
1997CMECPan-CanadianCommonFrameworkforScienceLearningOutcomes,K-12.
Thefinallistofcandidatesforparticipationinthestudy(N=130)3wascomprisedasfollowsinFigure1below:
3Thetotalinthislistslightlyexceeds130assomeindividualsareincludedinmorethanonecategory.
ScienceTeachers,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
DisqnguishedProfessors,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
MinistryScienceCurriculumSpecialists,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
TeacherEducators,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
AcademicScienqsts,[VALUE],[PERCENTAGE]
Non-Gov't/Non-Profit,[VALUE],[PERCENTAGE]
Professorsemeriq,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
IndustryandR&D,[VALUE],
[PERCENTAGE]
Medical/HealthSciences,[VALUE],[PERCENTAGE]
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
14
Fig.1 InvitedcandidatestotheDelphibydeclaredprofessionalaffiliation(n=130).
ThemeGenerationinRound1oftheDelphiThenatureofhowaDelphistudyisdesignedandthemannerinwhichitisconductedand
producesdataencouragesthereportingofresultsforeachround.Putanotherway,whatmayappearto
someasanover-emphasisonmethodologicalaspectsoftheDelphistudyisactuallysomewhat
intentional.Achoicehasbeenmadehere,therefore,toallowtheroundsoftheDelphitoassistin
buildingthelargerpicturetowardspossiblefuturesinscienceeducationandaccomplishthisbytreating
thetwocohortsinvolvedasiftheywereeventualcontributorstoalarger,combinedcommittee
structure.IthasbeenrecommendedbyexperiencedDelphistudyauthorsthatthefirst-round
questionnairebequiteopen-endedintheinitialphaseofthedatacollection(e.g.,Hassonetal.,2000;
Keeneyetal.,2006;Rieger,1986;Ziglio,1996).InRound1ofthisstudy,instructionsweregiventothe
expertpanelcohortstorespondfree-formtofourgeneralquestions(andatalengthoftheirchoosing)
thatwereintendedtocontextualizeabasisforforecastingthenatureofCanadianscienceeducationfor
thenextgeneration.ItwasimportantinthisopeningroundoftheDelphitonotunnecessarilydirectthe
expertpanelinamaterialwaynorprovidetheactualcontentoftheresearchquestions.Accordingto
Mitchell(1991),open-endedquestionsintheearlystagesoftheDelphi“allowsapanelisttoutilizethe
intellectualapparatusthatmakesthemexpertandmayreduceanyfeelingofunderutilization”(p.344).
Inaddition,Mitchellviewedtheincorporationofpanelists’responsesintofutureDelphiround
questionnairesasmotivatingintermsoftheircontinuanceandcommitmenttotheresearchstudy–a
formof“seeingthemselvesastheresearchunfolds”(p.344).Ziglio(1996)deemedthefirststagesofthe
Delphias“ofcrucialimportanceinunderstandingtheaimoftheDelphiexercise”(p.9)and
recommendedindividualcontactwithexpertpanelistsandtheprovisiontothemof“appropriate
backgroundinformationonthetechnique”(p.10).TofulfilZiglio’srecommendation,allparticipants
wereprovidedabriefprimerontheDelphiapproachbothintheinitialinvitationletterandinafollow-
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
15
upemailcommunication.Onoccasion,justpriortoRound1opening,afewindividualsaskedforquite
detailedclarificationofhowthestudyroundswouldproceedandinsomeinstancessoughtliterature
referencesofpastDelphistudiesthatwouldprovidefurtherbackgroundtotheirparticipation.Hence,
theDelphiaslearningexperiencewasunderway.
Round 1 began January, 2014with four “seed questions” offered for the consideration of the expert
panel members. Two of these questions are presented here as these will contribute to the present
discussionandanalysis:
• Question1:What, ifany,significantglobaltrendscanyouidentifywhichcouldhaveeffectson
the nature of science education in the next 15 years here in Canada? For each trend or issue
providedinyourresponse,pleasegiveasclearadescriptionas ispossibleofyourviewsonits
probableeffectsonscienceeducationand(ifpossible)themagnitudeofsucheffects.
• Question2:What, ifany,shouldbetheprincipalfoundationsandgoalsofscienceeducationin
Canadaforthenextgeneration?Foreachresponseprovided,pleasegiveasclearadescription
of each idea youpresent as is possible, and statewhyeach is important for education in the
Canadiansociety.
Therangeofresponselengthtoeachofthe‘seed’questionswasexpectedlyvariable,withsome
individualsprovidingextensivetreatmentoftheissuesarisingfromtheseedquestionsandtaking
opportunitytoclarifyatsomedepththeircommitments,theirconsideredopinions,andtheirpositions.
Inall,respondentsprovidedinexcessof47,000wordsoftexttobecodediterativelyandreflexivelyin
ordertoidentifytheprincipalthemesemergentinthedatainthisinitialround.Oncethefour-week
periodassignedtoRound1responsescametoaclose,thefirstsetofqueriesmadeuseofNVivo10™
computerassistedqualitativedataanalysissoftware(CAQDAS)fromQSRInternationalandtechniques
developedforCAQDASinthelastdecade(Bazeley,2006;2009;Bazeley&Jackson,2013).Thisearly
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
16
stageNVivo10™analysisprovidedtextualassociationsofpredominantkeywordssortedintoword
clusterswhichcouldthenbethesubjectsofanewsetofassociationscomprising“nodeclassifications”.
Suchwordassociationswerecriticalindeterminingwhatthecodingnodeswouldbeforeachindividual
responseinRound1.Theresultsofthesequeriesestablishedthefollowingsevenmostcommonnode
classificationsacrossallresponsestotheseedquestions:
NodeClassifications–GlobalTrendsAffectingScienceEducation
• DevelopmentofScience-OrientedSkills
• Science,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(STEM)
• SustainabilityandSustainableDevelopment
• GlobalizationandNeo-Liberalism
• Indigenous4PerspectivesandKnowledge
• RelevanceofSciencetoStudents
• NewLearningTechnologies`
NodeClassifications–FoundationsandGoalsforScienceEducation
• ScienceforSustainabilityandGlobalCitizenship
• Science,Technology,SocietyandtheEnvironment(STSE)
• TheNatureofScientificPractices
• InteractingGlobalSystems
• ScientificSkillDevelopment
4Inthisarticle,theterm“Indigenous”includes,worldwide,theoriginalinhabitantsofaplaceandtheirdescendants’subjectiontocolonizinginfluences.ItalsofollowstheUNconventionfortheterm.InCanada,theterm“indigenous”includespeoplesself-identifyingasFirstNations’,Inuit,andMétisandusesuppercaseforminrespectforhowIndigenousscholarsspelltheterm(Aikenheadetal.,2014).
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
17
• LiteracyinScience-RelatedIssuesandScientificLiteracy
• ScienceforEconomicCompetitiveness
Thesehigher-levelnodeclassificationswerethenusedtocodethewrittenresponsestodeterminethe
principalthemesemergingfromthisfirstphaseofthedatacollection(Flanagan,1954;Greenetal.,
2007;Sinkovics&Alfoldi,2012).Thefivecodingproceduresdescribedbelowbecamethebasisfor
identifyingthethemesinthedata:
a. WordfrequencyanalyseswereconductedforeachofthefourRound1seedquestionsacross
eachoftheexpertpanelparticipantsinbothcohortsindividually(N=30andN=26).
b. Ifaparticularterm,phrase,orwordassociationappearedrepeatedlyinawordfrequency
analysisfromoneparticipant,itwasnotedandcodedforasa“node”inNVivo10™;inaddition,
ifaterm,phrase,orwordassociationhadclosesimilarityamonganumberofparticipant
responses,thattoowasnotedandcodedasa“classificationnode”;allkeywordsand
terminologiesdirectlyassociatedwiththeseedquestionwordingwereautomaticallyeliminated
fromwordfrequencyanalysesthroughfiltering.
c. Thesecodedconcepts,explanatoryideas,andphraseswereconsideredas“emergent”point
sources(i.e.,nodes)inthedata;eachnodewasassociatedwithabrief,writtendescriptionsoas
tomaintainconsistencyinthecoding;clustersofsimilarnodesweregroupedintocategorical
nodesthatwouldeventuallydescribethethemesintheRound1data.
d. Anynodecategoriescontainingaminimumof2sources(a“source”isanindividualrespondent)
and2references(a“reference”isacodeableitemasidentifiedin(b)above)werethenprovided
asecondpassbytheresearcherforre-coding;thissecondpassinvolvedcodingofindividual
responsesacrosseachofthetwocohortsseparatelyandanothercodingwithallresponses
collatedintotoasingletextdocument(combinedcohorts)–onedocumentforeachofthefour
Round1seedquestions.
e. Anynodereferencesthatreachedaminimumof>75%coverageintermsoftheiremergencein
thedata(i.e.,wereobservedtohavecodinginatleastthreeof:(1)individualparticipant
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
18
responses,(2)aggregatedresponseswithinacohort,(3)auto-codedresponsesfromtext
analysesinNVivo10™,and(4)matrixcodinginNVivo10™usingtwoormoresimilarconcepts,
explanatoryideas,orphrases(asoutlinedin(c)above).
Inall,29themeswereidentifiedfromtheseedquestionsinRound1responses,andtheseweregrouped
bytheauthorintothreeclustersinaccordancewiththeresearchquestions.Aswewillsee,these
themesprovidethebasisfortheconstructionofratingscaleswhichwereusedintheRound2
questionnaire.Thethemesandclustersidentifiedareasfollows(innospecificorder):
GlobalTrendsAffectingFutureScienceEducationCluster(11themes)
1. Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics(STEM)
2. IntegrationofIndigenousPerspectives/Knowledge
3. DevelopingScience-OrientedSkills
4. ScienceandEducationforSustainability
5. National/InternationalStudentAssessments(e.g.,PISA,TIMMS)
6. NewLearningTechnologies
7. RelevanceofScienceEducationtoStudents
8. National/InternationalStandards
9. ScienceEducationforEconomicCompetitiveness
10. Re-conceptualizingthePurposesofScienceEducation
11. GlobalizationoftheInternationalCommunityandNeo-LiberalValues
TheFoundationsofCanadianScienceCurriculumCluster(7themes)
1. ScienceEducationforGlobalCitizenship
2. ScienceEducationforSustainability
3. TheNatureofScience
4. Science,Technology,SocietyandtheEnvironment(STSE)
5. InteractingSystemsandSystemsThinking
6. ScientificSkillsforthe21stCentury
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
19
7. ScientificKnowledge
TheGoalsofCanadianScienceEducationCluster(11themes)
1. DemocraticCitizenshipinaGlobalTechnologicalSociety
2. Career-buildingforaTechnologicalSociety
3. EconomicCompetitiveness
4. LiteracyinScience-RelatedIssues
5. PersonalCharacterDevelopment
6. Life-LongLearning
7. ContributionstoHumanHealthandWell-Being
8. TrainingofFutureScientists
9. DevelopingaDeepSenseofWonderandCuriosity
10. PursuingProgressivelyHigherLevelsofStudy
11. SustainingEarth'sSystems
Round2oftheDelphiPriortothedistributionoftheRound2questionnaire,allpanelmembersreceivedasummaryof
thethemesgeneratedinRound1.Thesummarywasdeliveredbacktopanelmembersasaformof
controlledfeedbacktypicaloftheDelphiapproach.Theformatofthesummarywasanadaptationof
similartechniquesdevelopedbyCollinsetal.(2001)andOsborneetal.(2003),andincludedthe
followingcomponents:(a)provisionallarge-scalethemetitles;(b)abriefsynopsisofthejustificationfor
emergenceforeachthemeincludingasamplingofcontextualcommentstaggedwithalpha-numericID
codesofparticipants,and;(3)directquotations(againwithattachedIDcodes)fromparticipantswhich
providedbothrepresentativeandnotabledefinition(s)toaparticulartheme.
IntheRound2questionnaire,participantswereaskedtoratetheimportance,relevance,or
influenceof(asthecasemaybe)foreachofthethemesgeneratedinRound1,usuallyona5-point
Likertscalewith‘5’beingofgreatestrelevanceorimportance,etc..Inordertoclarifytheirintent,a
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
20
numberofitemsrequiredparticipantstojustifytheirratingsand/orcommentupontheitem.Insome
cases,commentarywasaskedforwithrespecttothedegreetowhichthewordingspresentedinthe
questionnaireitemswasrepresentativeoftheirunderstandingofthatitem.Forexample,whenrating
the11themesoftheGlobalTrendsAffectingFutureScienceEducationcluster,panelmemberswere
askedtoratetheitemstwice–firstaccordingtotheirperceptionoftheactualaffectonthefutureof
scienceeducation,andthenasecondtimeassessingwhattheythoughtthedesiredaffectshouldbe.
ThiswasinaccordancetosimilarproceduresdevelopedbyLewthwaite(2001;2006)inhisScience
CurriculumImplementationQuestionnaire(SCIQ)andLewthwaite&Cuthbert(2008)inastudyof
teacherperceptionsofsciencecurriculumascasestudiesinaCanadianschooldistrict.Whenone
considersprobableandpossiblefuturesinscienceeducation,itwasdeemedimportanttomakethis
distinctionwithrespecttocurrentinternationalinfluencesandvectorforces.
OnceRound2wascompletedonline,detailedsummaryreportsweregeneratedandfedback
intotheexpertpanelcohorts.Thistime,thesummariesincludeddescriptivestatistics(percentages,
mean,median,standarddeviation,variance,andinterquartileranges(Q3-Q1))foreachitemratedin
thequestionnaire.Justificationcommentsthatweredeemedrepresentativeeitherofnotable
departuresfromtheconsensuspositionoralignedwithconsensuswerealsoprovidedtothepanel.In
orderforparticipantstobepreparedforthemannerinwhichthesestatisticalsummarieswouldbe
organized,abetween-roundbriefwaspreparedandsenttotheexpertpanelaheadofthesummary
reportsonceonlinesubmissionforRound2hadended.Containedinthatinformationbriefwas:a
descriptionofwhatwouldbepresentedstatisticallyandwhy;howmeans,medians,andvarianceswere
tobeunderstoodintermsofratingscaledesignandachievingconsensus;samplesofjustification
statements,and;notesaboutwhattoexpectfromitemdesigninRound3.Thisprocedurefordata
organizationandreportingtotheexpertpaneliswell-supportedintheliteratureforDelphistudies
(Hasson,Keeney&McKenna,2000;Hsu&Sandford,2007;Powell,2003).Table‘A’(Appendix‘A’)
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
21
providesacompletelistingofthepanel’sratings(disaggregatedbycohort)totheRound2itemsacross
all29themesinthethreeclusters.
Round3oftheDelphi
InRound3,aswiththepreviousround,participantswereaskedtoratetheimportance,
relevance,orinfluenceof(asthecasemaybe)eachofthethemesandcontributorstoCanadianscience
educationasfirstratedinRound2.TableB(Appendix‘B’)providesacomplete,disaggregatedlistingof
thepanel’sratingstotheRound3itemsacrossallthemes.Inordertoprovideasummary,Table1(this
section)offerscombinedratingsofthemesacrossbothcohortsasifallpanelmemberswere
contributingasasinglegrouping.AttritionwaslowinRound3,with42membersprovidingcomplete
questionnaireresponses.Inordertoclarifymeaningortonowsolidifyexpertpanelmembers’positions,
certainoftheitemsfromRound2requiredparticipantstoagainprovidejustificationfortheirratings
and/orrendercommentary.Thiswasespeciallynecessaryiftheirpositionhadchangedfromthe
previousroundorremainedinanoutlierposition.Inothercases,optionalcommentarywasencouraged
fromwhathadbeenarticulatedbypanelmembersinRound2.Inthisway,theresearcherwasafforded
opportunitytomoreclearlyidentifypositionsthatwererepresentativeoftheemerginggroup
understandingofaparticularitemortheme.AswasdonebetweenRound1andRound2,expertpanel
memberswereagainprovidedastatisticalsummaryandcontrolledfeedbackofanonymoussupporting
commentsfromRound2asafeed-inpreparationforthefinalround.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
22
Table1CombinedconsensuspositionsforCOHORTS1and2aftercompletionofRound3.
COMBINEDCONSENSUS-COHORTS1&2(N=42)
THEMES–GLOBALTRENDS&SCIENCEEDUCATION
(PerceivedInfluenceAccordingtoExpertPanel)
Mean Median Mode S.D. ConsensusLevel
DevelopingSkillsforthe21stCentury 4.24 4.0 4 0.77 80.95%
ScienceandEducationforSustainability 4.00 4.0 4 0.70 71.43%
NewLearningTechnologies 3.71 4.0 4 0.67 64.29%
RelevanceofScienceEducationtoStudents 3.71 4.0 4 0.83 57.14%
National/InternationalStudentAssessments 3.56 3.0 3 0.79 51.28%
GlobalizationoftheInternationalCommunity 3.48 4.0 4 0.83 54.76%
National/InternationalStandards 3.40 3.0 4 0.84 50.00%
Re-conceptualizingofScienceEducation 3.40 3.0 3 0.96 38.10%
ScienceEducationforEconomicCompetitiveness 3.36 3.0 3 0.98 53.66%
THEMES–GLOBALTRENDS&SCIENCEEDUCATION
(DesiredInfluenceAccordingtoExpertPanel)
Mean Median Mode S.D. ConsensusLevel
ScienceandEducationforSustainability 4.52 5.0 5 0.63 92.86%
DevelopingSkillsforthe21stCentury 4.39 5.0 5 0.70 95.24%
RelevanceofScienceEducationtoStudents 4.31 4.0 5 0.78 85.71%
Re-conceptualizingofScienceEducation 3.95 4.0 4 0.99 71.43%
NewLearningTechnologies 3.81 4.0 4 0.83 64.29%
Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics(STEM) 3.73 4.0 3 0.93 62.50%
GlobalizationoftheInternationalCommunity 3.71 4.0 4 1.04 59.52%
IntegrationofIndigenousPerspectives/Knowledge 3.38 3.0 3 1.06 45.24%
ScienceEducationforEconomicCompetitiveness 3.15 3.0 4 0.94 39.02%
National/InternationalStandards 3.13 3.0 3 0.98 30.77%
National/InternationalStudentAssessments 2.90 3.0 3 0.85 20.51%
COMBINEDCONSENSUS-COHORTS1&2(N=42)
THEMES–FOUNDATIONSofSCIENCEEDUCATION
Mean Median Mode S.D. ConsensusLevel
ScienceEducationforSustainability 4.45 5.0 5 0.63 92.86%
Science,Technology,SocietyandtheEnvironment(STSE)
4.33 4.0 4 0.61 92.86%
ScientificSkillsforthe21stCentury 4.22 4.0 4 0.72 87.80%
TheNatureofScience 4.07 4.0 4 0.71 78.57%
ScientificKnowledge 3.88 4.0 4 0.67 71.43%
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
23
COMBINEDCONSENSUS-COHORTS1&2(N=42)
THEME–GOALSofSCIENCEEDUCATION
Mean Median Mode S.D. ConsensusLevel
LiteracyinScience-RelatedIssues 4.45 4.0 4 0.50 100.00%
SustainingEarth'sSystems 4.26 4.0 5 0.77 80.95%
DevelopaDeepSenseofWonderandCuriosity 4.19 4.0 4 0.71 83.33%
ContributetoHumanHealthandWell-Being 4.14 4.0 4 0.61 88.10%
Life-LongLearning 4.00 4.0 4 0.70 78.05%
CitizenshipinaGlobalTechnologicalSociety 3.88 4.0 4 0.89 73.81%
Career-buildingforaTechnologicalSociety 3.48 3.0 3 0.74 45.24%
TrainingofFutureScientists 3.31 3.0 3 0.68 28.57%
PersonalCharacterDevelopment 3.26 3.0 3 0.66 35.71%
EconomicCompetitiveness 3.12 3.0 3 0.92 33.33%
PursueProgressivelyHigherLevelsofStudy 3.12 3.0 3 0.71 21.43%
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
24
References(Part1)
Achieve,Inc.(2010).Internationalbenchmarkingreport:Takingtheleadinscienceeducation:Forgingnext-generationsciencestandards.Availableonlineathttp://www.achieve.org/files/InternationalScienceBenchmarkingReport.pdf.RetrievedJanuary22,2013.
Achieve,Inc.(2013).Nextgenerationsciencestandards.Availableonlineathttp://www.nextgenscience.org/next-generation-science-standardsRetrievedAugust22,2013.
Aikenhead,G.S.(1999).STSscienceinCanada:Frompolicytostudentevaluation.InD.Kumar,&D.Chubin(Eds.)Science,technology,&societyeducation:Aresourcebookonresearchandpractice.KluwerAcademicPress(pp.49-89).
Aikenhead,G.S.(2006).Towardsdecolonizingthepan-Canadianscienceframework.CanadianJournalofMath,Science&TechnologyEducation,6(4),387-399.
Aikenhead,G.S.andSutherland,D.(2015).ChangingtheshapeofSTEM:WisdomofgrassrootsIndigenousmovementsinCanada.InB.Freeman,S.MarginsonandR.Tytler(eds.)TheAgeofSTEM:EducationalPolicyandPracticeAcrosstheWorldinScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(pp.151-160).OxfordUK:TaylorandFrancis.
Alters,B.J.(1997).Whosenatureofscience?JournalofResearchinScienceTeaching,(34),pp.39-55.
AmgenCanada,Inc.(2012).Spotlightonsciencelearning–AbenchmarkofCanadiantalent.Availableonlineat:http://stream1.newswire.ca/media/2012/06/05/20120605_C5880_DOC_EN_14615.pdf.RetrievedJanuary15,2013.
Bazeley,P.(2006).Thecontributionofcomputersoftwaretointegratingqualitativeandquantitativedataandanalyses.ResearchintheSchools,13(1).
Bazeley,P.(2009).Analysingqualitativedata:Morethan‘identifyingthemes’.MalaysianJournalofQualitativeResearch,2(2),6-22.
Bazeley,P.,&Jackson,K.(Eds.).(2013).QualitativedataanalysiswithNVivo.SagePublicationsLimited.
Bybee,R.W.(2010).AdvancingSTEMeducation:A2020vision.TechnologyandEngineeringTeacher.70(1).September,2010.https://dc117s6n40i36.cloudfront.net/uploads/forums/2014/07/06/Bybee-Integrated_STEM_Plan.pdf.AccessedFebruary17,2015.
Cochran,S.W.(1983).TheDelphimethod:Formulatingandrefininggroupjudgments.JournalofHumanSciences,2(2),111-17.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
25
Collins,S.,Osborne,J.,Ratcliffe,M.,Millar,R.,&Duschl,R.(2001).What‘ideas-about-science’shouldbetaughtinschoolscience?ADelphistudyoftheexpertcommunity.PaperpresentedattheAmericanEducationalResearchAssociation(AERA)nationalconference.Seattle,WA,April2001.28pp.AccessedDecember28,2013from:http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/58275/.
CouncilofCanadianAcademies(2012).ThestateofscienceandtechnologyinCanada,2012.TheExpertPanelontheStateofScienceandTechnologyinCanada.Ottawa:CCA.232pp.Availableonlineat:http://www.scienceadvice.ca/uploads/eng/assessments%20and%20publications%20and%20news%20releases/sandt_ii/stateofst2012_fullreporten.pdf.RetrievedAugust15,2013.
CouncilofCanadianAcademies(CCA)(2014).Scienceculture:WhereCanadastands.TheExpertPanelontheStateofCanada’sScienceCulture.Ottawa:CCA.222pp.Availableonlineat:http://www.scienceadvice.ca/en/publications/assessments.aspx.RetrievedSeptember28,2014.
CouncilofMinistersofEducation,Canada(CMEC)(1997).Commonframeworkofsciencelearningoutcomes:Pan-Canadianprotocolforcollaborationonschoolcurriculum.RetrievedMay30,2012.261pp.Availableonlineat:http://publications.cmec.ca/science/framework/.
Crutzen,P.J.(2002).Geologyofmankind.Nature(415)23.10.1038/415023aMedlineDOI:10.1038/415023a.
Dalkey,N.,&Helmer,O.(1963).AnexperimentalapplicationoftheDelphimethodtotheuseofexperts.ManagementScience,9(3),458-467.
Flanagan,J.C.(1954).Thecriticalincidenttechnique.PsychologicalBulletin,51(4),327.
Freeman,B.,Marginson,S.,andTytler,R.(2015).WideninganddeepeningtheSTEMeffect.InB.Freeman,S.MarginsonandR.Tytler(eds.)TheAgeofSTEM:EducationalPolicyandPracticeAcrosstheWorldinScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(pp.1-21).OxfordUK:TaylorandFrancis.
Gondwe,M.,&Longnecker,N.(2014).Scientificandculturalknowledgeininterculturalscienceeducation:Studentperceptionsofcommonground.ResearchinScienceEducation,1-31.DOI:10.1007/s11165-014-9416-z.
Green,J.,Willis,K.,Hughes,E.,Small,R.,Welch,N.,Gibbs,L.,&Daly,J.(2007).Generatingbestevidencefromqualitativeresearch:theroleofdataanalysis.AustralianandNewZealandjournalofpublichealth,31(6),545-550.
Griggs,D.,Stafford-Smith,M.,Gaffney,O.,Rockström,W.,Ohman,M.C.,Shyamsundar,P.,Steffen,W.,Glaser,G.,Kanie,N.,Noble,I.(2013).Policy:Sustainabledevelopmentgoalsforpeopleandplanet.Nature,495,305–307.10.1038/495305aMedlineDOI:10.1038/495305a.
Hasson,F.,Keeney,S.,&McKenna,H.(2000).ResearchguidelinesfortheDelphisurveytechnique.JournalofAdvancedNursing,32(4),1008-1015.
Hsu,C.C.,&Sandford.B.A.(2007).TheDelphitechnique:Makingsenseofconsensus.PracticalAssessment,Research&Evaluation,12(10),1-8.Retrievedfromhttp://www.pareonline.net/pdf/v12n10.pdf.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
26
Keeney,S.,Hasson,F.,&McKenna,H.(2011).ConductingResearchUsingtheDelphiTechnique.TheDelphiTechniqueinNursingandHealthResearch,69-83.JohnWiley&Sons.
Komisar,B.P.,&McClellan,J.E.(1961).Thelogicofslogans.InSmith,B.O.andEnnis,R.H,(Eds.)Languageandconceptsineducation.(pp.195-214).Chicago:RandMcNally.
Let’sTalkScience(2014).Spotlightonsciencelearning:Shapingtomorrow’sworkforce:WhatdoCanada’steensthinkabouttheirfutures?AmgenCanadaInc.andLet’sTalkScience.Availableonlineat:http://www.letstalkscience.ca/research-publications/spotlight-on-science-learning/spotlight-2014.html.RetrievedDecember1,2014.
Lewthwaite,B.E.(2001).Thedevelopment,validationandapplicationofaprimaryschoolsciencecurriculumimplementationquestionnaire.UnpublishedSc.Ed.D.Thesis,CurtinUniversityofTechnology,Perth.Availableonlineat:http://adt.curtin.edu.au/theses/available/adt-WCU20030717.155648/.
Lewthwaite,B.E.(2006).Constraintsandcontributorstobecomingascienceteacher-leader.ScienceEducation,90(2),331-347.
Lewthwaite,B.,&Cuthbert,P.(2008).Exploringtheinfluenceofasuperintendentonsciencecurriculumdelivery:Acasestudy.AChronologyofChange,42.MERNJournal.Availableonlineat:http://www.mern.ca/journal/Journal-V2.pdf#page=48.
Linstone,H.A.,&Turoff,M.(2011).Delphi:Abrieflookbackwardandforward.TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,78(9),1712-1719.
Marginson,S.(2015).Whatinternationalcomparisonscantellus.InB.Freeman,S.MarginsonandR.Tytler(eds.)TheAgeofSTEM:EducationalPolicyandPracticeAcrosstheWorldinScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(pp.22-32).OxfordUK:TaylorandFrancis.
Marginson,S.,Tytler,R.,Freeman,B.,andRoberts,K.(2013).STEM:Countrycomparisons:Internationalcomparisonsofscience,technology,engineeringandmathematics(STEM)education.Finalreport.
AustralianCouncilofLearnedAcademies.Melbourne,Victoria,Australia.http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30059041.AccessedFebruary02,2015.
Martino,J.P.(1972).Toolsforlookingahead.Spectrum,IEEE,9(10),32-40.
Mitchell,V.W.(1991).TheDelphitechnique:Anexpositionandapplication.TechnologyAnalysis&StrategicManagement,3(4),333-358.
Murry,J.W.,Jr.&J.O.Hammons(1995).Delphi:Aversatilemethodologyforconductingqualitativeresearch.ReviewofHigherEducation,18,423-436.
NationalResearchCouncil(NRC)(2012).Nationalscienceeducationstandards.Washington,D.C.:Nationalacademypress.262pp.RetrievedMay30,2012,fromhttp://www.nap.edu/readingroom/books/nses/html/6e.html.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
27
Orpwood,G.W.F.(1985).TowardtherenewalofCanadianscienceeducation.I.Deliberativeinquirymodel.ScienceEducation,69(4),477-489.
Orpwood,G.W.F.,&Souque,J.P.(1984).ScienceeducationinCanadianschools.Summaryofbackgroundstudy52.ScienceCouncilofCanada,Ottawa:ON.
Orpwood,G.W.F.,&Souque,J.P.(1985).TowardtherenewalofCanadianscienceeducation.II.Findingsandrecommendations.ScienceEducation,69(5),625-636.
Orpwood,G.W.F.,Schmidt,B.A.,&Jun,H.(2012).Competinginthe21stcenturyskillsrace.CanadianCouncilofChiefExecutives/Conseilcanadiendeschefsd'entreprise.Availableonlineathttp://www.canadianopenlibrary.ca/SwfDocs/235/235164.pdf.AccessedAugust14,2013.
Osborne,J.(2007).Scienceeducationforthetwentyfirstcentury.EurasiaJournalofMathematics,Science&TechnologyEducation,3(3),173-184.
Osborne,J.,Collins,S.,Ratcliffe,M.,Millar,R.,&Duschl,R.(2003).What“ideas-about-science”shouldbetaughtinschoolscience?ADelphistudyoftheexpertcommunity.JournalofResearchinScienceTeaching,40(7),692-720.
Patton,M.Q.(2002).Twodecadesofdevelopmentsinqualitativeinquiry:Apersonal,experientialperspective.QualitativeSocialWork,1(3),261-283.
Powell,C.(2003).TheDelphitechnique:Mythsandrealities.JournalofAdvancedNursing,41(4),376-382.
Rieger,W.G.(1986).DirectionsinDelphidevelopments:Dissertationsandtheirquality.TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,29(2),195-204.
Rockström,J.,Steffen,W.,Noone,K.,Persson,Å.,Chapin,F.S.,Lambin,E.F.,Lenton,T.M.and22others(2009a).Asafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.Nature,461(7263),472-475.
Rockström,J.,Steffen,W.,Noone,K.,Persson,Å.,Chapin,F.S.,Lambin,E.F.,Lenton,T.M.and22others(2009b).Planetaryboundaries:Exploringthesafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.EcologyandSociety,14(2).http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/.AccessedJanuary29,2015.
ScienceCouncilofCanada(SCC).(1984a).ScienceeducationinCanadianschools,Volume1:Introductionandcurriculumanalyses.BackgroundStudy52.Hull:Quebec:MinisterofSupplyandServices,Canada.
ScienceCouncilofCanada(SCC).(1984b).ScienceeducationinCanadianschools:Volume2;StatisticaldatabaseforCanadianscienceeducation.BackgroundStudy52.Hull:Quebec:MinisterofSupplyandServices.
ScienceCouncilofCanada(SCC).(1984c).Scienceforeverystudent:EducatingCanadiansfortomorrow'sworld.SummaryofReport36.Hull:Quebec:MinisterofSupplyandServices,Canada.
ANewConsensusonPossibleFutureOrientationsforScienceEducationinCanada:ADelphiStudy(Part1)
28
Sinkovics,R.andAlfoldi,E.A.(2012).Progressivefocusingandtrustworthinessinqualitativeresearch:Theenablingroleofcomputer-assistedqualitativedataanalysissoftware(CAQDAS).ManagementInternationalReview,52(6),817-845.(DOI:10.1007/s11575-012-0140-5).
Steffen,W.,Crutzen,P.J.,&McNeill,J.R.(2007).TheAnthropocene:arehumansnowoverwhelmingthegreatforcesofnature?AMBIO:AJournaloftheHumanEnvironment,36(8),614-621.
Steffen,W.,Richardson,K.,Rockström,J.,and15others(2015).Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet.ScienceExpress.DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/recent.AccessedFebruary04,2015.
Stewart,D.W.,&Shamdasani,P.N.(1990).Focusgroups:Theoryandpractice.Appliedsocialresearchmethodsseries.FocusGroups:TheoryandPracticeAppliedSocialResearchMethodsSeries.
Stewart,J.(2001).IstheDelphitechniqueaqualitativemethod?MedicalEducation,35(10),922-923.
Sweigert,Jr,R.L.,&Schabacker,W.H.(1974).TheDelphitechnique:Howwelldoesitworkinsettingeducationalgoals.PaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanEducationalResearchAssociation(Chicago,Illinois,April,1974).Atlanta,GA:GeorgiaStateBoardofEducation.
Uhl,N.P.(1983).UsingtheDelphitechniqueininstitutionalplanning.NewDirectionsforInstitutionalResearch,1983(37),81-94.
Weinrib,J.,&Jones,G.A.(2015).Decentralization,federalismandSTEM.InB.Freeman,S.MarginsonandR.Tytler(eds.)TheAgeofSTEM:EducationalPolicyandPracticeAcrosstheWorldinScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(pp.134-150).OxfordUK:TaylorandFrancis.
Weinrib,J.&Jones,G.A.(2013).Consultantreport:SecuringAustralia’sFutureSTEM:CountryComparisons.Canada’sApproachtoScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics(STEM):Context,Policy,Strategy,andPrograms.AustralianCouncilofLearnedAcademies.http://www.acola.org.au/PDF/SAF02Consultants/Consultant%20Report%20-%20Canada.pdf.Accessed04April,2014.
Ziglio,E.(1996).TheDelphimethodanditscontributiontodecision-making.In:Adler,M.,&Ziglio,E.(Eds.).(1996).Gazingintotheoracle:theDelphimethodanditsapplicationtosocialpolicyandpublichealth.JessicaKingsleyPublishers.pp.3-33.