griggs - met office

114-11-2001 DJG12-I

From IPCC 2001 HadleyCentre

Climate Change

Coastal Zones in Sub-Saharan Africa

Natural History Museum and Royal Society

Dave GriggsDirector, Hadley Centre, Met Office

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Variation of the Earth’s surface for the past 140 years...

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Global mean surface temperatures have increased

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The Land and Oceans have warmed

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Precipitation patterns have changed

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Sea Levels have risen

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An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the

climate system

Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century

1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern Hemisphere

Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC per decade

10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake

and river ice over 20th century Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th

century

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Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent

decreased by 10-15% since 1950s

40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades

Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century

0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation during 20th century

2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century

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GJJ99 3Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

The greenhouse effect

SUNSome solar radiation isreflected by the earth’s

surface and the atmosphere

ATMOSPHERE

Solar radiationpasses through theclear atmosphere

EARTHMost solar radiation is absorbedby the surface, which warms

Some of the infraredradiation is absorbedand re-emitted by the

greenhouse gases.The effect of this is to

warm the surfaceand the loweratmosphere

Infrared radiationis emitted from theEarth’s surface

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Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

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19 levels in atmosphere

20 levelsin ocean

2.5lat 3.75

long

1.251.25

The HadleyCentre thirdcoupled model HadCM3

30km

-5km

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THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

OCEAN

PrecipitationSea-ice

LAND

Ice- sheetssnow

Biomass

Clouds

Solarradiation

Terrestrialradiation

Greenhouse gases and aerosol

ATMOSPHEREThe Met.Office Hadley Centre

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Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Land surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surface

Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice

Sulphateaerosol

Sulphateaerosol

Sulphateaerosol

Non-sulphateaerosol

Non-sulphateaerosol

Carbon cycle Carbon cycle

Atmosphericchemistry

Ocean & sea-icemodel

Sulphurcycle model

Non-sulphateaerosols

Carboncycle model

Land carboncycle model

Ocean carboncycle model

Atmosphericchemistry

Atmospheric

chemistry

Off-linemodeldevelopment

Strengthening coloursdenote improvementsin models

1975 1985 1992 1997

HADLEY CENTRE EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

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Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

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Global mean temperature changes

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Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

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Global-average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all scenarios

Global-average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4 ºC to 5.8 ºC by 2100 Rate of warming likely unprecedented in at least last 10,000 years Land areas will warm more than the global average Global average precipitation will increase over 21st century Very likely to be more intense precipitation events Snow cover and sea-ice extent projected to decrease further Glaciers and icecaps projected to continue widespread retreat Global mean sea-level projected to increase by 9 cm to 88 cm by 2100

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CO2 concentrations, temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced

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More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

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World Population 6,056,528,577

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-

Changing Planet

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Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity

projected

present

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Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years

Climate change is projected to decrease agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming

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Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population

Wood demand will double in the next 50 years

Forest management will become more difficult due to an increase in pests and fires

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One third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity

Population facing water scarcity will more than double over the next 30 years

Climate change is projected to decrease water availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions

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Climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity

Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years

Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services

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Food and Fiber ProductionProvision of Clean and Sufficient Water

Maintenance of BiodiversityMaintenance of Human Health

Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus

Agricultural Lands

CoastalZones

ForestLands

FreshwaterSystems

Arid Lands & Grasslands

Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide a range of essential ecological goods and services

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Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change

Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors

Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge

Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries

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Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial level

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(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

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Projected Temperatures During the 21st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last 1000

Years

griggs - met office

Technology

sea levels

sea level rise

summer seaice extent

years land areas

globalaverage temperature

aerosol atmosphere

years climate change

river ice