australian nut conference - anic 2017/01. salt, bernard - connecting...connecting with the consumer...

Connecting with the consumer of the future

Bernard Salt AM

28 March 2017

Australian Nut Conference

© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

The world will want more food, energy and resources … tensions will ensue

Source: Based on UN Population Division data; World Bank World data

Global population 1900-2100 and global cereal production 1961-2014

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Food Energy WaterResources

CommoditiesSpaceSecurity


Big disruption is already here …must build a culture of agility

United States Year USbn1. Apple 1976 690 2. Google 1998 5653. Microsoft 1975 4904. Berkshire Hathaway 1955 4025. Amazon.com 1994 3866. Facebook 2004 3817. Exxon Mobil 1870 3438. JPMorgan Chase 1799 3108. Johnson & Johnson 1886 30910. Wells Fargo 1852 283

Australia Year USbn1. BHP Billiton 1885 1982. Commonwealth Bank 1911 1083. Westpac Banking 1817 83 4. ANZ 1835 655. National Australia Bank 1893 626. Telstra 1901 467. CSL 1916 398. Wesfarmers 1914 359. Woolworths 1924 2510. Macquarie Group 1970 22

Source: Bloomberg Terminal Data as at 9 February 2017; KPMG Demographics


All major Australian cities will be re-imagined by 2050

19541 Sydney 1,8632 Melbourne 1,5243 Brisbane 5024 Adelaide 4845 Perth 3496 Newcastle 1787 Hobart 958 Wollongong 919 Geelong 7210 Launceston 4911 Ballarat 4812 Toowoomba 4313 Rockhampton 4114 Townsville 4015 Ipswich 3916 Bendigo 3717 Broken Hill 3118 Canberra 2819 Blue Mountains 2320 Kalgoorlie 23

20151 Sydney 4,9212 Melbourne 4,5293 Brisbane 2,3094 Perth 2,0395 Adelaide 1,3176 Gold Coast – Tweed 6257 Newcastle–Maitland 4348 Canberra - Queanbeyan 4259 Sunshine Coast 302

10 Wollongong 29211 Greater Hobart 22112 Geelong 18713 Townsville 18014 Cairns 14815 Greater Darwin 14216 Toowoomba 11517 Ballarat 10018 Bendigo 9319 Albury - Wodonga 8920 Launceston 87

20501 Sydney 7,6882 Melbourne 7,6703 Perth 4,6334 Brisbane 4,1885 Adelaide 1,7976 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,2257 Canberra - Queanbeyan 7228 Newcastle-Maitland 5889 Sunshine Coast 503

10 Wollongong 38411 Townsville 34012 Geelong 30113 Greater Hobart 26514 Cairns 22515 Greater Darwin 20916 Toowoomba 19717 Mackay 19318 Ballarat 18119 Bendigo 16120 Rockhampton 142

Source: Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities; KPMG Demographics


We have a globally unique consumer culture

Source: relevant local census data; KPMG Demographics

Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses

Berlin 13%London 36%

Paris 22%

Madrid 20%

Mumbai 1%

Shanghai 0%Tokyo 2%

Seoul 4%

Singapore 29%

Darwin 33% Cairns 29%Alice Springs 29%

Auckland 39%

Wellington 27%

Adelaide 30%Perth 41% Buenos Aires 13%

Miami 39%San Francisco 36%

Pittsburgh 4%

Toronto 49%New York

29%

Johannesburg 6%

8,000kmMoscow 13%

Vienna 32%

Brisbane 30%

Melbourne 37%

Dubai 83%

Stockholm 30%

Sydney 42%


New acronyms for our newest tribes

PUMCINS …→ Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs

…NETTELs ←Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life

KIPPERS …→ Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings

…LOMBARDS←Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead

Source: KPMG Demographics


The changing ethic mix of the Australian consumer market


2015 2005 Change Change %

India 432,690 148,960 283,730 190%

China 481,820 227,600 254,220 112%

New Zealand 611,380 423,550 187,830 44%

Philippines 236,400 134,580 101,820 76%

United Kingdom 1,204,280 1,116,890 87,390 8%

South Africa 178,680 114,150 64,530 57%

Vietnam 230,170 174,440 55,730 32%

Malaysia 156,460 101,390 55,070 54%

South Korea 102,570 51,150 51,420 101%

Sri Lanka 114,370 70,620 43,750 62%

Top 10 nationalities by country of birth between 2015 and 2005


The Australian palate has evolved to incorporate “new” foods

ANGLO ASIAN ARAB/PERSIANMEDITERRANEAN


Australia offers good prospects for business growth

Source: Based on OECD data; KPMG Demographics

2016 2050 Change Working Age Change

1 Australia 24 38 +54% +45%

2 Canada 36 49 +33% +18%

3 United States 324 400 +23% +15%

4 United Kingdom 65 77 +18% +10%

5 New Zealand 4 5 +13% +1%

6 Germany 81 69 -14% -27%

7 Japan 126 97 -23% -34%


A generation of prosperity has created a culture of aspiration

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from December 1960 to December 2016

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6

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

MenziesWhitlam

FraserHawke

GSTGFC


Our houses have changed … and so too have our expectations

Today1950s


Australians are dividing the lifecycle into ‘thirds’

0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1977Child Teen OldAdult

71

2017Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetiredAdult

82

1937Child Adult Old

63

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics


From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds


HierarchicalIndulged their kidsDepression era parentsSandwich generation

Business investment

BABYBOOMERS

■ Born 1946 – 1964■ Today 52 – 70

YGENERATION

Special … bubble-wrapChaotic connectionEntrepreneurialsDisappointed generation?

Convenience

■ Born 1983 – 2000■ Today 16 – 33

Parents results-orientedYouth in straitened timesHighly educated, globalPragmatists … fixers

After-school snacks

ZGENERATION

■ Born 2001 – 2019■ Today 0 – 15

Forgotten generationWrong place … wrong timeNo workplace guiltAngsty about Ys

On-the-go people

■ Born 1965 – 1982■ Today 34 – 51

XGENERATION

SOCIEn

I f you are w1der 40 and sLarting Lo read this, I politely sugf,,est that you turn the page. There b11't anything here that will interest you . .lust me rabbiting on about

Lhe old days. 13il of a yaw n-fest, really ... I lave they gone? Is it just you and me now' Shhh ... act natural and read this column without making a sound. Do not look up; do not make eye contact wiU1 anyone. Come close to Lhe page. Closer!

I belong to a secret society and I am looking for new recruits. It's a sect known as the Middle-Aged Moralisers. We in the MAM meet monthly in our members' homes in the subwbs, where we disclL,s ... hush ... tl1e youth of today. Why tl1e need for secrecy? Well, if it ever got out that middle-aged people Lalk. about young people, all hell would break loose.

We on ilie l'v1AM membership committee have been watching you. \Ve've seen the pursed lips, the tut-t11tting, the head-shaking. We have seen Lhe sighing, l11e face-palming, the eye-rolling. We iliink. you are one of us. We know it, you know it. Come to our ne,,t meeting. You'll find it liberat.ing to know l11ere are ol11ers just like you.

This week we're di,clL,sing the evil, of hipster cafes. Do you know why hipster cafes have milk crates for seating' To keep baby boomers at bay. They know they can't officially ban us, so what do they do? They rig Ille seating so lllat tight baby-boomer hamsHings recoil al the pmspecl of positioning the buttocks below the latitude of the knees. Sitting is fine. Getting up is problematic. And doesn't. the sub-40 set

BY BERNARD SALT

Moralisers, we need you!

know it. They don't want we over-50s despoiling Ille aulllenlic grooviness of llleir cafes. (ls groovy slill a word?)

Do you know what else hipster cafes do? With malicious aforethought, hip�ter proprietors deliberaleJy design their menus with the tiniest. of writing and print these same menus using a light-coloured ink on light-coloured paper. That is pure evil w1it large. And then these same hipster

proprietors play thumping, pwnping music iliat reverberates off polished conO'ete lloors so as to eliminate all hope of audible conversation. The meandering middle-aged who have naively wm1dered i.nlo hipster cafes are thereby reduced to palhelically lip-reading conversations, hoping to catch ilie odd word so as to guess the meaning of entini sentences.

Don't get me starled on Lhe befuddlement caused by Loilels willl obscure signage. Is Lhal an M or is that a W? Is that a top hat or is that a ladies' bonnet? This is a hipster cafe: they wouldn't have a top hat on the door to tl1e me1is loo. Unless, of cow"Se, they're being ironic. Maybe it is the men's. Why can't we have some light back here? Why can't we have a sign saying men and women?

llul all of U1is is mere ephemera. ll els worse. l have seen young people order smashed avocado wit]) crumbled feta on fivc-f,��1in toasted bread at $22 a pop and more. I can afford local this for lunch because I am middle-aged a.nd have rai�ed m family. But how can yow1g people afford to eat like this? Shouldn't they be economising by eating al home> I low often are they eating ouL? Twenty-two dollm"S several times a week could go towards a deposit on a hotLse.

There. I've said il. I have said what evet)' seo·et middle-aged moraliser has tl10ugh1. hut has never had the cow-age to verbalise. Should you disclose the contents of this conversation, I will disavow all knowledge of you aod of the exi�tence of t11i� secret society. In fact, Lhi� conve1"Sation never took place. Goodbye.

4 [email protected] f

I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle


Knowledge workers are on the rise … maybe leading to a divided society

17 years February quarter 2017 – up 3.2m (8.8m – 12.0m)

Feb 2000 – Feb 2017 (000)Jobs grown: 3,526Jobs contracted: 332Net jobs added: 3,194


Professional/Scientific/Tech.

Admin &SupportMining

Retail Trade Financial &InsuranceEducation &

Training

WholesaleTrade

Rental/Hiring& Real Estate

Info Media & Telecoms

Manufacturing

Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing

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Public Admin & Safety

Arts &Recreation

Electricity/Gas/Water & Waste

Transport/Postal/Warehouse

Healthcare& Social Assistance

Construction

Accom. &Food

OtherServices


Australia’s farming community is constantly changing

Selected farmers and growers between the 2006 and 2011 CensusesSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

Occupation 2011 2006 Change No. Change %Beef Cattle Farmer 31,857 26,905 4,952 18%Grain, Oilseed or Pasture Grower 9,975 9,510 465 5%Poultry Farmer 2,618 2,582 36 1%Mixed Crop Farmer 2,267 2,311 -44 -2%Vegetable Grower 6,841 7,007 -166 -2%Fruit or Nut Farm Worker 4,004 4,322 -318 -7%Sheep Farmer 10,730 11,368 -638 -6%Sugar Cane Grower 3,724 4,509 -785 -17%Fruit or Nut Picker 2,843 3,728 -885 -24%Fruit or Nut Grower 8,694 9,827 -1,133 -12%Grape Grower 4,976 6,646 -1,670 -25%Dairy Cattle Farmer 13,064 16,112 -3,048 -19%Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmer 34,725 41,347 -6,622 -16%Total 136,318 146,174 -9,856 -7%


2016-201710.8%2.2%3.0%1.9%1.6%1.1%4.2%2.0%3.5%-4.0%1.6%-6.0%1.6%2.2%

Australians put lifestyle, and some indulgence, first

Per cent change in retail sales in Australia for 13 categories over ten and five years and over 12 months to January 2017


2012-201730.2%18.9%17.0%34.6%23.5%33.8%29.6%20.4%24.7%20.2%20.9%4.9%

-25.9%23.3%

2007-201776.8%76.6%71.5%69.8%61.9%51.8%47.3%36.0%33.1%24.6%22.0%12.7%-19.0%50.1%

IndustryTakeaway foodPharmaceutical, cosmetic & toiletriesLiquorCafes, restaurants & catering Supermarket & grocery storesHardware, building & garden suppliesClothingFootwear & other personal accessoriesFurniture, floor coverings, housewares, textilesRecreational goodsElectrical & electronic goodsDepartment storesNewspapers & booksTotal (incl other)


Net growth in population aged 65+ over 100 years in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

More and more older Australians in the market

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20,000

40,000

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100,000

120,000

140,000

160,00019

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1950 20001975 2025 2050

1950: 0.7m2016: 3.7m2050: 7.9m

© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Source: Icons made by Roundicons, Popcorn Arts from www.flaticon.com, Shutterstock

Points to consider

Australia has a natural advantage in agribusiness … we

should be leveraging off our clean green image and feeding Asia

and beyond

1

The Australian consumer is more health conscious

than ever ... opportunity to

expand nut consumption as a source of protein

2

As with many agribusiness

businesses nut growing must

professionalise … bigger, more sophisticated

operations in the future

3

http://www.flaticon.com/


Introducing Australia’s bachelor hot spot …

Mullumbimby1.63:1

Roxby Downs1.88:1

Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census

“Highway of Love”


Barrier Highway

www.bernardsalt.com.au


kpmg.com.au kpmg.com.au/app

© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

The information contained in this document is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity. It is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute, nor should it be regarded in any manner whatsoever, as advice and is not intended to influence a person in making a decision, including, if applicable, in relation to any financial product or an interest in a financial product. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

To the extent permissible by law, KPMG and its associated entities shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such information (including for reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise).

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australian nut conference - anic 2017/01. salt, bernard - connecting...connecting with the consumer...

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