bernard salt - kpmg - the rise of india: what it means for australia
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Engaging with India
The rise of India: what it means for Australia
Bernard Salt
16 May 2016
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The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia has the resources-base to help India grow and prosper
Source: Based on UN Population Division data; World Bank World Development Indicators data
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Population (historic) Population (projected) Cereal Production
Food Energy Water
Resources
Commodities
SpaceSecurity
Strategic issues will shape the Indian Ocean Rim in the 21st Century
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The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
India is the world’s 7th biggest economy … Australia ranks 13th
BIGGEST
1. United States 18.558
2. China 11.383
3. Japan 4.413
4. Germany 3.468
5. United Kingdom 2.761
6. France 2.465
7. India 2.289
8. Italy 1.849
9. ...
13. Australia 1.201 $UStn GDP 2016
Source: Based on International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Top 20 cities in China at 2015 and 2000
Source: Based on UN Population Division data; KPMG Demographics
Population M
City 2015 2000
11 Hong Kong * 7 7
12 Foshan 7 4
13 Hangzhou 6 3
14 Shenyang 6 5
15 Xi'an * 6 4
16 Suzhou 5 2
17 Haerbin 5 4
18 Qingdao 5 3
19 Dalian 4 3
20 Xiamen * 4 1
Population M
City 2015 2000
1 Shanghai * 24 14
2 Beijing * 20 10
3 Chongqing * 13 8
4 Guangzhou * 12 7
5 Tianjin 11 7
6 Shenzhen * 11 7
7 Wuhan * 8 7
8 Chengdu * 8 4
9 Dongguan 7 4
10 Nanjing * 7 4
* Cities connected into Australia
China’s urban middle-class has expanded by 5 million per year since 2000
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Top 20 cities in India at 2015 and 2000
Source: Based on UN Population Division data; KPMG Demographics
Population M
City 2015 2000
11 Lucknow 3 2
12 Kanpur 3 3
13 Nagpur 3 2
14 Coimbatore 3 1
15 Kozhikode 2 1
16 Indore 2 2
17 Kochi 2 2
18 Thrissur 2 1
19 Malappuram 2 1
20 Patna 2 2
Population M
City 2015 2000
1 Delhi * 26 16
2 Mumbai 21 16
3 Kolkata 15 13
4 Bangalore 10 6
5 Chennai 10 6
6 Hyderabad 9 5
7 Ahmadabad 7 4
8 Pune 6 4
9 Surat 6 3
10 Jaipur 3 2
China’s urbanisation has yet to reshape India
* Cities connected into Australia
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
8m 20m 38m
Australia has doubled its level of immigration
Net annual growth in Australia's working age population (15-64) between 1950 and 2050
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Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
83m 127m 97m
Japan does not have the option of increasing immigration
Net annual change in Japan’s working age population (15-64) between 1950 and 2050
Source: Based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development, Bernard Salt
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
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500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
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© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
India has a surplus of labour
Net annual growth change in India’s working age population (15-64) between 1950 and 2050
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2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
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376m 1,042m 1,620m
Source: Based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development, Bernard Salt
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia’s Indian community is on the rise
Population at June 2015
1. United Kingdom 1,204,000
2. New Zealand 611,000
3. China 482,000
4. India 433,000
5. Philippines 236,000
Growth/Loss Between 2015 - 2014
1. China 30,000
2. India 24,800
3. Malaysia 8,700
4. Philippines 5,900
5. New Zealand 5,600
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Top 5 population by country of birth in Australia at June 2015 and absolute change between 2014 and 2015
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia’s Indian community clusters in specific suburbs … this willchange over time
NSW
Harris Park
43%
Vic
Laverton
15%
WA
Glendalough
15%
SA
Woodville
Gardens
10%
Qld
Coopers
Plains
7%
Percentage of Indian-born population by suburb at the 2011 Census
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia has been extraordinarily welcoming of migrants
Source: relevant local census data; KPMG Demographics
Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia must develop a culture of innovation
United States Year USbn
1. Apple 1976 522
2. Google 1998 508
3. Microsoft 1975 412
4. Exxon Mobil 1870 321
5. Facebook 2004 311
6. Berkshire Hathaway 1955 310
7. Amazon.com 1994 298
8. Johnson & Johnson 1886 283
9. General Electric 1892 266
10. Wells Fargo 1852 250
Australia Year USbn
1. BHP Billiton 1885 110
2. Commonwealth Bank 1911 94
3. Westpac Banking 1817 72
4. National Australia Bank 1893 51
5. ANZ 1835 50
6. Telstra 1901 48
7. CSL 1916 35
8. Wesfarmers 1914 33
9. Woolworths 1924 22
10. Macquarie Group 1970 18
Source: Bloomberg Terminal Data as at 29 January 2016; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia can learn from India’s innovative culture
India Year $USbn City Business
1. Tata Consultancy Services 1968 67 Mumbai IT, business consultancy services
2. Reliance Industries 1966 48 Mumbai Conglomerate oil, gas, retail
3. HDFC Bank 1994 38 Mumbai Financial services
4. Infosys 1981 38 Bangalore IT
5. ITC 1910 38 Kolkata Fast moving consumer goods
6. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 1981 29 Mumbai Pharmaceutical
7. Coal India 1975 28 Kolkata Coal mining company
8. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation 1956 28 Dehradun Multinational oil & gas company
9. Hindustan Unilever 1932 25 Mumbai Food, beverages, cleaning agents
10. State Bank of India 1955 21 Mumbai Financial services
Source: Bloomberg Terminal Data as at 29 January 2016; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Source: Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com; KPMG Demographics
Points to consider
Australia and India
have a mutual interest
in developing trade
ties via food, energy
and resources … but
we need better air
connectivity between
the two nations
1
India is a major source
of migrants, visitors and
students to Australia …
common language,
sport, values means
that both nations benefit
from closer cultural
connections
3
The Indian community
is a rising force in
Sydney and Melbourne
… already impacting
knowledge industries
and Australia’s
consumer culture
2
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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