URBAN WATER INSTITUTE18th Annual Water Policy Conference

Update on Long-Term Delta Solutions

August 25, 2011

Introduction

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California

Regional Water Wholesaler to 6 counties5,200 square miles

26 Member Agencies~19 million residentsRegional economy: $1 trillionRetail demand 2009:

4 million acre-feetProvided about ½ of retail demands

Delta

LA Aqueduct

Colorado River Aqueduct SuppliesState Water

Project Supplies

Sierra Mtns

Local Groundwater and

Recycling

Conservation

Sources of Water for Southern California

Balanced Approach to Planning

Four Generations of Metropolitan Investments

Colorado River Aqueduct

State Water Project

Regional Storage and Transfers

Conservation and Local Supplies

Heavy dependence on imported supply

and SWP Diversions

Emphasis on Conservation, Local Supplies, and Storage & Transfers

Early 1990’s Current Strategy

MWD’s Balanced Approach

Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Total Local SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

Supply

Forecast Year

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Retail Demand

Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

ConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservation

Total Local SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

Supply

Forecast Year

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Retail Demand

Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

Imported Supply Need

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

New Local Supply & Conservation

ConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservation

Total Local SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

SupplyTotal Local

Supply

Forecast Year

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Retail Demand

New Local Supply & Conservation

Metropolitan’s Storage Capacity

0.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

14x Increase in Capacity

Conservation, Recycling, & GW Recovery

0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

1,600,000.0

1,800,000.0

2,000,000.0

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Actual Projected

Regional Investments Thru 2010

Urban Conservation $ 44 Million

Recycling & GW Recovery $1,240 Million

Total $1,580 Million

Metropolitan’s Regional

InvestmentsRegional Projects

Urban Conservation --

Recycling 64

GW Recovery 21

Seawater Desalination 3

Need for Imported Supplies

Imported Water is Essential

Colorado RiverDecade-long droughtGrowth in the lower basinEnvironmental

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Colorado River

Cut to Basic Apportionment

Lower Colorado River MSCP

Transfer Programs

Colorado River Drought

1 MAF+

SWP Supplies are at Risk

19671971

19751979

19831987

19911995

19992003

20070

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Seismic RiskBay Area Faults

Seismic RiskBay Area Faults

Fishery Declines Delta smelt

Fishery Declines Delta smelt

18

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

SubsidenceSubsidence

Key Delta Risks

Local

Los Angeles Aqueduct

Colorado River Aqueduct

State Water Project

Bay Area – 33%Bay Area – 33%

Central Valley – 23 to 90%Central Valley – 23 to 90%

Southern Cal – 30%Southern Cal – 30%

Some regions up to 100% dependent

Some regions up to 100% dependent

Statewide Risk

San Andreas

San AndreasHayward

Hayward

Calaveras

Calaveras

Greenville

Greenville

Vaca-Kirby

Vaca-Kirby

Rodgers Crk

Rodgers Crk

Concord

Concord

66% probability of > 6.5 magnitude earthquake by 2032

66% probability of > 6.5 magnitude earthquake by 2032

Midland

Midland

Antioch

Antioch

Bay-Delta Region Major Faults San G

regorio

San Gregorio

27%21%

10%

11%3%

4%

%

Seismic Vulnerability

Judicial Ruling Total Impacts

2008670,000 Acre-feet~$201 million

2009619,000 Acre-feet~$186 million

20101,043,000 Acre-feet~$313 million

Delta Solution

A Balanced Approach for Co-Equal Goals

Co-Equal Goal 1 – Ecosystem RestorationCo-Equal Goal 2 – Water Supply Reliability

DisasterESA protection

Co-Equal Goal 1Ecosystem Restoration

Ecosystem Restoration Target = Twice the size of Washington DC

Restoration & Preservation Targets

Tidal Marsh 65 - 105,000 ac

Seasonal Floodplain 10,000 ac

Riparian Habitat 5,000 ac

River Channel Margin 20 mi

TOTAL 80 - 120,000 ac

Ecosystem Restoration and Preservation Targets

26

Sac RiverSac River

Beyond Habitat Restoration Toxics, Unscreened Diversions, etc.

Predator Control

Corbula amurensis (Overbite clam)

Ammonia

Ocean Conditions

Invasive SpeciesEgeria densa

(Brazilian Waterweed)

Co-Equal Goal 2Water Supply Reliability

Sacramento

SWP PumpsCVP Pumps

Sac River

Stockton

Preliminary Subject to Revision

SJ River

Conveyance Alignment Options

Long-term operations permitCoverage for existing & future listed speciesFuture regulatory obligation defined upfront

Regulatory Assurances

East Canal ~ $8 billion *

West Canal ~ $9 billion *

Tunnel ~ $12.7 billion *

* URS developed initial cost estimates; Second independent expert cost analysis from 5RMK Inc completed in Jan. 2010.

* Includes 35% construction contingency on tunnel (25% on non-tunnel) and 18% for engineering/project management. Preliminary Subject to Revision

What is the Range of Cost?

Timeline Process

2022 20232020 20212010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

32 Preliminary Subject to Revision

Conservation Plan

Conservation Plan

RestorationRestoration

Enviro DocsEnviro Docs

EngineeringEngineering

PermitsPermits

Preliminary Final Design

Procure Equipment

Final Final

Final Final

OperationalOperational

Bio OpBio Op

Public Draft

Public Draft

Working Draft

Working Draft

Public Draft

Public Draft

ConstructionConstruction Land Acquisition & Construction

Near-Term Habitat Restoration Implementation

ProcurementProcurement

Admin Draft – Apr 2012; Public Draft – May 2012; Final EIR/EIS – Dec 2012

Timeline for Delta Solution

Frequently Asked Questions

Are you planning to increase pumping?

Early 1990’s Current Strategy

Source: Governor’s Delta Vision Report (Estimated total annual runoff 32.85 maf)

Is Southern California taking all the water?

Pacific Ocean48%

UpstreamConsumptive Use

31%

CVP-SWP Exports17%

In-Delta Consumptive Use

4%

Source: Governor’s Delta Vision Report (Estimated total annual runoff 32.85 maf)

Is Southern California taking all the water?

Pacific Ocean48%

UpstreamConsumptive Use

31%

CVP-SWP Exports17%

UpstreamUrban Use

2% MWD4%

In-Delta Consumptive Use

4%

Why can’t you replace Delta supplies with seawater desalination?

18-36 new desalination plants (1 MAF)Every 4-8 miles from LA to San Diego600 MW gross power requirementCost – $1,300 to $2,000 per acre-foot

Is the Delta solution too expensive?

Affordability based on tunnel option$12.7 billion

MWD share ~$3.4 billion (25 percent of total)15,000 cfs capacity1,560,000 acre-foot average SWP yield for Metropolitan

• MWD estimates• Restored Delta – Incremental cost of tunnel not melded with overall SWP supply; includes $200/af energy costs

What is the Cost of Other Supplies?

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Incr

emen

tal S

uppl

y Co

st (

$/A

F)

$300 -1,300/AF

$500 -800/AF*

$960 -2,000/AF

$1,040 -2,300/AF $1,600 -

2,000/AF

What is the Capital Cost of Other Supply Improvement Projects?

San Francisco PUC East Bay MUD MWD - Delta Improvements

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Capi

tal C

ost E

stim

ates

($/

AF)

* Capital Cost/AF = Total Capital Cost / Annual Deliveries

What is the Per-Capita Cost of Other Supply Improvement Projects?

San Francisco PUC East Bay MUD MWD - Delta Improvements

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Per C

apita

Cos

t Esti

mat

es

* Per-Capita Cost = Total Capital Cost / Population Served

Colorado River Aqueduct

• 1931• $220 million bond• Assessed Valuation:

$2 billion

Ratio: 10%

State Water Project

• 1960• $1.75 billion bond

(MWD share ~50%)• Assessed Valuation:

$6 billion

Ratio: 6%

Delta Solution• $3.4 billion

(assumed MWD share)

• Assessed Valuation: $2 trillion

Ratio: 0.2%

Major Project Cost vs. Assessed Valuation

Rate Impact Summary

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

IRP Planning Approach3.5% Inflation

Aver

age

Rate

($/

AF)

How do we get to a solution?

Legislative/Congressional SupportRegulatory assurancesSound science & adaptive managementEffective governance structureLocal benefits

Why are you an optimist?

“For myself I am an optimist – it does not seem to be much use being anything else.”- Winston Churchill

“If you’re going through hell, keep going.”- Winston Churchill