Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to

Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches

Dr. Julio Postigo (FAO);Blgo. Ricardo Gutiérrez (MINAGRI);M.A. Marie Jeanjean (FAO)

Cusco, May 23rd 2014

Project Overview

Total Approved Budget: US$ 2,494,006

Project operation: October 2011- March 2015 (Waiting for final

approval for no-cost extension from donor)

Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru (only first

two components)

Complements the National Plan for Risk Management and

Climate Change Adaptation in the Agrarian Sector (PLAN

GRACC-A)

AMICAF Framework: Linking Climate Change and Food Security

Component 1: Impacts of

Climate Change on Agriculture

Component 2: Food Insecurity

Vulnerability Analysis

at household level

Component 3: Livelihood

Adaptation to Climate Change

Component 4: Institutional Analysis and Awareness

Raising

Global Guideline for Implementation in other

countries (Global delivery)

% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040

Component 1: Impacts of CC on AG

National scope & Sub-national level

Comp. 2 Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

Econometrics model with ENAHO, ENAPRES, CENAGRO.

Models choice depends on data availability (a variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced)

Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability

Eg: Vulnerability profiling in Nicaragua (national level)

Class of vulnerability unit 0-20% 20-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% TotalProportion of hhs % 60% 13% 3% 4% 4% 5% 11% 100Age (head) Years 47.28 47.47 47.79 47.96 39.88 51.00 45.90 47.15Education (head) Years 2.51 1.89 0.72 0.64 1.56 0.77 0.94 2.06HH Size adul. eq. 5.34 6.79 6.74 7.73 7.63 8.72 8.36 6.15Single head Bin. 0.21 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.23 0.17 0.19Female head Bin. 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.10 0.17 0.13 0.15 0.13Indigenous Bin. 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.06Access to migr. Netw. Bin. 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.04# of Rooms 2.09 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.62 1.82 1.45 1.94Access to safe water Bin. 0.59 0.48 0.51 0.37 0.36 0.57 0.31 0.53# of Radios 0.58 0.64 0.48 0.64 0.59 0.59 0.62 0.59# of TVs 0.23 0.12 0.04 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.04 0.18Time to health facility Mins 13.41 14.36 18.41 14.00 15.69 11.81 11.12 13.54Time to primary school Mins. 14.88 13.78 13.58 12.72 14.43 17.33 17.17 14.89Distance to major road Km 54.45 60.41 23.54 57.55 37.88 54.93 56.90 54.04# Bikes 0.39 0.19 0.23 0.20 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.30Land operated Acres 8.47 7.05 7.24 6.27 3.40 6.41 4.64 7.57Land owned Acres 10.88 8.68 8.09 7.61 2.64 5.29 6.02 9.44# draft anim. 1.27 0.64 0.47 0.70 0.55 0.87 0.73 1.05Community org. Bin. 0.53 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.34 0.46HH received Loan Bin. 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.08Gov’t prog. Bin. 1.56 1.35 1.18 1.24 0.96 1.86 0.99 1.45NGO prog. Bin. 0.41 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.15 0.38 0.38 0.40Producers’ Org. Bin. 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.06Chemical Fertilizer Bin. 0.45 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.31 0.16 0.38Organic Fertilizer Bin. 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.06Pesticides Bin. 0.53 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.47 0.30 0.48Temperature change % 4 5 7 6 7 6 5 5

Eg : Adaptation and vulnerability to food insecurity

Source: Karfakis et al (2011)

Political level: attention enhancement

Better organized

Overcoming racial/ethnical discrimination

Scalar relations from local to global

Political level: investment

Including mountain (family) farming in parties

agenda

Authorities-citizens’ accountability system

Understanding the importance of mountain

farming for food security and provision

Efficiency of family farming

Knowledge level: ‘keepers’

Risk aversion strategies

Diversification of crops, livelihoods

Social organization for land uses

(institutions)

Agrobiodiversity

Flexibility

Knowledge level: keeping and integrating

Recognizition by government

Official education system (school, college,

university)

Extension services (if they exist!)

Vaccines, more resistant varieties, 3D

models, Early Warning System, climate

forecast….

Implementation level

Rural roads

Land security (e.g., MINAGRI: guidelines

for land titles of peasant communities)

Better rural education and basic services

(e.g., Tambos for highland communities)

Extension service

Implementation level

Financial and insurance system formountain farming (e.g. Agrobanco, “Disaster fund”) Pasture: Irrigation, storage (e.g., Research

more resistant varieties; Instituto Alpaquero for genetic improvement) End oligopoly of textile industry Research and advocacy Certification schemes

Thank you

Questions?

Julio.postigo@fao.orgrgutierrez@minagri.gob.pe

Component 1: Impacts of climate change on agriculture

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture (sub-national level).

MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology, Economy) in one package

Software plus training

% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040

BCM2 A1B and A2 Tminprojections aggregated to 79 provinces (2011 - 2040 mean)

Eg. Philippines