Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to
Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches
Dr. Julio Postigo (FAO);Blgo. Ricardo Gutiérrez (MINAGRI);M.A. Marie Jeanjean (FAO)
Cusco, May 23rd 2014
Project Overview
Total Approved Budget: US$ 2,494,006
Project operation: October 2011- March 2015 (Waiting for final
approval for no-cost extension from donor)
Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru (only first
two components)
Complements the National Plan for Risk Management and
Climate Change Adaptation in the Agrarian Sector (PLAN
GRACC-A)
AMICAF Framework: Linking Climate Change and Food Security
Component 1: Impacts of
Climate Change on Agriculture
Component 2: Food Insecurity
Vulnerability Analysis
at household level
Component 3: Livelihood
Adaptation to Climate Change
Component 4: Institutional Analysis and Awareness
Raising
Global Guideline for Implementation in other
countries (Global delivery)
% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040
Component 1: Impacts of CC on AG
National scope & Sub-national level
Comp. 2 Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis
Econometrics model with ENAHO, ENAPRES, CENAGRO.
Models choice depends on data availability (a variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced)
Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability
Eg: Vulnerability profiling in Nicaragua (national level)
Class of vulnerability unit 0-20% 20-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% TotalProportion of hhs % 60% 13% 3% 4% 4% 5% 11% 100Age (head) Years 47.28 47.47 47.79 47.96 39.88 51.00 45.90 47.15Education (head) Years 2.51 1.89 0.72 0.64 1.56 0.77 0.94 2.06HH Size adul. eq. 5.34 6.79 6.74 7.73 7.63 8.72 8.36 6.15Single head Bin. 0.21 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.23 0.17 0.19Female head Bin. 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.10 0.17 0.13 0.15 0.13Indigenous Bin. 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.06Access to migr. Netw. Bin. 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.04# of Rooms 2.09 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.62 1.82 1.45 1.94Access to safe water Bin. 0.59 0.48 0.51 0.37 0.36 0.57 0.31 0.53# of Radios 0.58 0.64 0.48 0.64 0.59 0.59 0.62 0.59# of TVs 0.23 0.12 0.04 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.04 0.18Time to health facility Mins 13.41 14.36 18.41 14.00 15.69 11.81 11.12 13.54Time to primary school Mins. 14.88 13.78 13.58 12.72 14.43 17.33 17.17 14.89Distance to major road Km 54.45 60.41 23.54 57.55 37.88 54.93 56.90 54.04# Bikes 0.39 0.19 0.23 0.20 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.30Land operated Acres 8.47 7.05 7.24 6.27 3.40 6.41 4.64 7.57Land owned Acres 10.88 8.68 8.09 7.61 2.64 5.29 6.02 9.44# draft anim. 1.27 0.64 0.47 0.70 0.55 0.87 0.73 1.05Community org. Bin. 0.53 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.34 0.46HH received Loan Bin. 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.08Gov’t prog. Bin. 1.56 1.35 1.18 1.24 0.96 1.86 0.99 1.45NGO prog. Bin. 0.41 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.15 0.38 0.38 0.40Producers’ Org. Bin. 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.06Chemical Fertilizer Bin. 0.45 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.31 0.16 0.38Organic Fertilizer Bin. 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.06Pesticides Bin. 0.53 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.47 0.30 0.48Temperature change % 4 5 7 6 7 6 5 5
Political level: attention enhancement
Better organized
Overcoming racial/ethnical discrimination
Scalar relations from local to global
Political level: investment
Including mountain (family) farming in parties
agenda
Authorities-citizens’ accountability system
Understanding the importance of mountain
farming for food security and provision
Efficiency of family farming
Knowledge level: ‘keepers’
Risk aversion strategies
Diversification of crops, livelihoods
Social organization for land uses
(institutions)
Agrobiodiversity
Flexibility
Knowledge level: keeping and integrating
Recognizition by government
Official education system (school, college,
university)
Extension services (if they exist!)
Vaccines, more resistant varieties, 3D
models, Early Warning System, climate
forecast….
Implementation level
Rural roads
Land security (e.g., MINAGRI: guidelines
for land titles of peasant communities)
Better rural education and basic services
(e.g., Tambos for highland communities)
Extension service
Implementation level
Financial and insurance system formountain farming (e.g. Agrobanco, “Disaster fund”) Pasture: Irrigation, storage (e.g., Research
more resistant varieties; Instituto Alpaquero for genetic improvement) End oligopoly of textile industry Research and advocacy Certification schemes
Component 1: Impacts of climate change on agriculture
Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture (sub-national level).
MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology, Economy) in one package
Software plus training