Assessing global land use: Balancing consumption with sustainable supply

Stefan Bringezu

Director Material Flows and Resource

Management Wuppertal Institute

Professor

for Sustainable Resource Management

Co-chair WG Land&Soil of the International Resource Panel

Presentation at the Conference "Land and soil degradation post Rio+20" European Commission, Charlemagne Building 16 November 2012 Brussels, Belgium

  The presentation is based on work for International Resource Panel where

the author co-chairs the WG on Land&Soil and lead-coordinates an

upcoming report (Assessing global land use: Balancing Consumption with

Sustainable Supply, currently under peer review, publication planned 2013).

  The author is particularly grateful to the co-autors of that report Helmut

Schütz, Walter Pengue, Meghan O´Brien, Fernando Garcia, Ralph Sims,

Robert T. Howarth, Lea Kauppi and Jeff Herrick, as well as many other

contributors.

Acknowledgements

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 2

  Mega trends in global land use

  Drivers of global cropland expansion

  Expected land degradation and land conversion

  Safe operating space for global cropland

  Possibilities to adjust consumption of biomass to levels of sustainable supply

The presentation

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 3

Global land use: settlements and agriculture expand while forests decline (109 hectare)

“agriculture“

deserts, glaciers, others

settlements, infrastructures

2050

3.9

4.1 grass- lands

5.0

0.36

2000

1.5 crops 1.5

arable land

3.5 perma-

nent pastures

4.4

1.4

1961

3.1 agric. land: + 7% to 31% cropland + 7% to 27%

+ 72% to 118%

+?

- 3% to -23%

-?

Sources: Benedikt-Kemp et al. 2002, MEA 2005, GEO 4, OECD (2008)

Nov 2012

forests

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earlier estimates

Nov 2012

-  asd

Global land use – trend scenarios expect expansion of agriculture

Source: Van Vuuren and Faber (2009) after FAO, IAASTD, Van Vuuren et al.

S. BRINGEZU 5

Intensification of crop and animal production increases

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Inde

x 19

61 =

100

N-fertilizer per ha croplandP-fertilizer per ha croplandK-fertilizer per ha croplandPrimary crops yieldTractors per ha croplandirrigated share of agricultural area

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

billi

on h

a [B

ha]

Totalextensive grazing systemintensive grazing system

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Source: PBL personal communication E. Stehfest, data from IMAGE, based on Bouwman et al. 2006

Source: compiled by H. Schütz based on FAO online data base

Nov 2012

Global crop yields grow slower than in past 5years moving averages (%)

Signifance of t-statistics: ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01; Data source: based on FAOSTAT online data 2008

** **

***

***

***

***

S. BRINGEZU 7

Nov 2012

Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will expand for feeding the world with protein rich meals

Source: Bringezu et al. (2009), after UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008

Cereal yields Cereal yields

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2030

Ind

ex 2

004

= 1

00

Population

Cropland

Cropland per capita

Cereals yields inDCMeat consumptionin DC

Cereal yields Meat consumption

  Global cropland

expands only to feed the world

  Additional demand for non-food biomass (fuels, materials) will increase the pressure on conversion of grasslands, savannahs and forests (in tropics)

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Projected land demand for biofuels

Source: IEA, 2011 Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 9

Global land use

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Global land use for biomass products

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Global land use changes driven by rising demand

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Global land use changes driven by rising demand and aggrevated by soil degradation due to erosion and expansion of built-up land

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 13

  More than a billion ha affected worldwide

  Millions of ha severely degraded every year

  Data and effects with high variability

Land degradation by soil erosion

http://commons.wikimedia.org

Jack Dykinga, http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/graphics/photos/k5951-1.htm

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 14

Effect of cropland demand Simplified scheme*

cropland built

-up

com

pens

atio

n

Add

ition

al F

FF

grasslands savannahs forests

degr

ad

net

gross

expansion *area proportions do not convey reality relations

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 15

FFF: Food, Fibres, Fuels

22 – 57 % of cropland in 2005 (1.530 Mha)

Global cropland requirements under business-as-usual trends until 2050 (preliminary data)

Mha Low High

Food supply 71 300

Biofuel supply 48 80

Biomaterial supply 20 139

Net expansion 139 519 Compensation for built environment 107 129

Compensation for soil degradation 90 225

Gross expansion 336 873

Source: IRP WG L+S based on various references

Uncertainty by climate change: 10% of low and high values

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 16

  Rockström et. al (2009): plus 400 Mha would be "safe operating space"

  However, - a significant part of natural savannahs

would be converted (e.g. large parts of Cerrado loss of biodiversity) - multiple demands for fertile land not fully considered (table !)

Would such an expansion be in acceptable range?

  If the loss of biodiversity due to the expansion of global cropland were

to be halted until 2020 - this would lead to a level of 1.66 billion ha (reference value) - and allow gross change up to ca. 130 Mha more from 1.53 bill ha in 2005 the "room" for expansion and the "global threshold" might be significantly smaller than BAU would lead us

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 17

Expansion of global cropland - Preliminary Review of the International Resource Panel -

18 S. BRINGEZU Nov 2012

required savings can only be attained by addressing all uses of biomass as well as land use planning and rehabilitation of degraded land

Possible savings by more responsible consumption

Nov 2012

BAU expansion Low High Savings by Low High

Food 71 300 Improving diet and reducing waste 96 135

Low: Wirsenius et al. 2010b: 6% (of 1530 Mha + 71Mha); High: Stehfest et al.

Biofuels 48 80 Halving biofuel targets 24 40

Biomaterials 20 139 Controlling biomaterials demand 20 70 High value halved

Net expansion 139 519 140 245

Compensation for built environment 107 129 Land use planning 11 13 10% avoidance of building

on fertile cropland

Compensation for soil degradation 90 225

Investment programmes to regenerate degraded

land 30 74

Restoration of 1/3 of degraded and abandoned land

Gross expansion 336 873 180 332

S. BRINGEZU 19

Preliminary data [Mha]

156 – 541 Mha remaining expansion:

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EU action

Global land use for domestic consumption in EU-27

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ha/cap   Example how global land use

can be attributed to domestic production and consumption activities

  Accounting according to ew-MFA conventions (as used by OECD and ESTAT a.o.)

  Shows that EU consumes land based products above average and beyond 0.20 ha/cap

Source: Bringezu et al. 2012

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 20

The transition cycle for global land use applicable at the national and regional level

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  Capacity building at the farm level

  Supporting resource management in regions and cities   Manufacturers informing retailers and consumers on sound origin of products

  Setting the framework for resource management by countries - improved knowledge base - land use planning - programmes for SRM - economic instruments - improved targeting of public investments - increased legal safety for land users - reducing food waste - making use of waste and material cascading - programmes for more healthy diet in overconsuming countries - family planning programmes

  Supporting global resource management by international institutions e.g. ISRIC; soil restoration fund; cooperation with Global Soil Partnership, Land 2050 initiative

Policy options

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 22

  Growing demand for food and non-food biomass will lead to increased pressure on cultivated soils and expansion of global cropland (BAU).

  Changing consumption provides high untapped potentials for relief

  Large areas with degraded soils need restoration and land use planning need to avoid building activities on fertile land

  Certification of selected products cannot effectively control global degradation and expansion of gropland

  A more efficient use of biomass and its substitutes is necessary and possible, esp. by reducing food waste, shift to more vegetal diet, and fuel car fleets consuming less fuel

  Countries should monitor and control their global land use for their domestic consumption

Major messages for the "soil discussion"

Nov 2012 S. BRINGEZU 23

Many thanks for your attention ! stefan.bringezu@wupperinst.org

www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/biofuels.htm ISBN: 978-1-906093-26-6