asean economic community: embracing the future, learning
TRANSCRIPT
PowerPoint PresentationASEAN Economic Community: Embracing the
Future, Learning from the Past
Dionisius Narjoko
“Reviews on ASEAN’s 50 years Path to ASEAN Community”
Tokyo, 8 August 2017
• ‘Embracing the Future’: new reform agenda for ASEAN
• ‘ASEAN@50 Survey’
‘High Demand; Growth Opportunities”
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Singapore Brunei Darussalam Malaysia Thailand Indonesia
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Philippines Vietnam Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia
Source: The World Bank
Population, ASEAN countries, 1990-2010
ASEAN Imports of Services to Australia - New Zealand (million USD)
690.7
1016.19
915.29
669.43
81.57 87.17 175.45
546.59
1013.22
1797.46
1600.58
2399.05
PB: production blocks SL: service links
8
PB
Production networks are unique to East Asia and ASEAN countries.
Trade in machinery and components
Chart2
Figure1
-0.6%
-0.2%
-3.2%
4.5%
5.1%
4.5%
3.1%
0.2%
2.6%
-1.4%
2.9%
1.5%
3.7%
4.9%
0.9%
3.0%
4.6%
1.6%
0.8%
4.6%
0.5%
1.2%
1.5%
5.4%
3.6%
4.5%
5.0%
1.5%
3.0%
6.5%
0.0240305745
3.4%
4.5%
4.7%
7.4%
8.0%
5.1%
6.8%
8.3%
4.3%
4.1%
5.8%
7.2%
7.3%
7.7%
7.1%
7.0%
6.2%
3.7%
4.9%
6.5%
5.7%
6.5%
7.5%
8.0%
8.2%
9.3%
10.5%
5.7%
7.0%
2.4%
0.0649899711
GDP growth, Latin America 1981-2007 6.4989971118978723E-2 GDP growth, East Asia 1981-2007 Average annual GDP growth, 1981-2007 2.4030574450517112E-2
Figure2
10088.8842521743
9371.8781808647
8772.690541484
8974.7774042316
9035.2340937917
8225.3849029334
8742.5958096137
8866.104173484
8515.2046164874
7764.9905206425
7472.3909560482
8302.5549548176
9167.2636196612
9579.1012551453
10006.2825532604
9598.9963555366
10005.7218158913
10689.1452507518
10973.6023948032
10485.193795099
10292.1596296135
9738.4420170452
8592.7067776274
9262.7315607203
10002.6863946249
10814.960107875
11614.5124426087
12501.6234078757
Bolivia
BOL
3777.287391561
3705.1227237086
3483.377487737
3272.2498561975
3196.8226624612
3076.1424014942
2932.1856816505
2938.8382261695
2957.5958411106
3001.150258812
3069.4012052653
3157.2993345765
3135.4502483048
3194.1984160114
3267.434452415
3344.2782828887
3414.4104470903
3507.5391131849
3607.2284719849
3548.1279082713
3562.9618218145
3549.7155530396
3565.2426024488
3589.8287067693
3667.4988921298
3757.5123035539
3865.4236092867
3972.3408561319
Brazil
BRA
7572.5342245927
7072.8180399582
6950.8627380963
6562.6009662782
6757.2972837069
7140.8085029109
7555.6599394385
7675.9664555893
7525.6024716182
7633.9753564642
7180.921727435
7170.3640777509
7025.0360684552
7240.9644844877
7512.8656429425
7727.344983504
7775.2225230054
7917.3404280806
7802.2689256337
7706.3007210075
7921.1223649764
7909.5103273429
8004.5148242878
7983.1324764454
8323.6005063549
8470.9944182236
8673.3080778485
9034.4187242776
Chile
CHL
5368.9491100253
5539.1634231429
4890.2292519451
4629.8665638421
4917.7268687162
5181.3442572797
5381.07516414
5640.7336539926
5951.4970134207
6467.3186608227
6589.0998943758
6986.9345004766
7702.6892761263
8093.0049701282
8407.2141449736
9149.3195071127
9678.333185925
10171.011087325
10359.2322823452
10149.4084320187
10474.8209080201
10700.4554699136
10809.8649239897
11109.7890858049
11654.6936372467
12173.3109500017
12595.5311033653
13108.1740615452
Colombia
COL
5163.0200539829
5164.793390189
5105.6229858459
5083.3900671404
5153.6067448962
5214.9383926033
5410.7796642765
5590.6671164316
5706.0656713412
5788.9551340724
6023.3656762952
6037.0660963891
6217.7502676311
6244.1208044058
6486.0506316589
6699.701834221
6707.8510594694
6813.2172946762
6735.2174455836
6347.6355339034
6432.9499872901
6465.02854823
6520.6648863857
6720.3343986593
6933.9984521609
7231.0426598512
7635.1863603119
8109.030599377
Peru
PER
6069.9566624137
6345.333256113
6155.6886353731
5301.757804233
5448.6494841727
5473.6735905114
5885.8779071346
6216.542176498
5553.2305143369
4800.575386408
4461.1288145671
4468.1653566729
4364.4923404133
4488.8925575191
4975.8766507292
5314.1828027897
5361.6450827232
5643.207000285
5525.3596296108
5498.9541932105
5586.0752805321
5526.431190276
5732.0474112727
5891.4604112272
6111.9164739945
6453.5787634199
6873.9021070217
7399.6648842849
11551.9209156473
11155.9168361645
10599.8523573105
9907.813679011
9772.1851569457
9529.2385927434
9887.4377956235
9985.57272602
10310.652780615
9204.5835250139
9573.9569394046
10272.9843943909
10651.9170635817
10447.6092607382
9983.7576316849
10161.705468058
9934.7315235107
10357.3160664298
10186.3433291753
9395.9754870329
9564.4712430265
9707.8213559309
8688.4998772982
7872.9548942914
9151.1847900093
9924.4619660707
10767.4393087834
11479.9727423974
Ecuador
ECU
5794.188500379
5826.6238480629
5638.4029097638
5350.7427964046
5411.7605409706
5427.3986793552
5506.8301719975
5256.5165943769
5559.6599421373
5482.6869026771
5501.2074207528
5658.1466588131
5619.601379781
5519.1072531787
5664.8025971995
5657.6404403779
5693.6043783794
5829.0083154407
5862.4063087091
5414.9442952672
5491.4672008162
5710.0648561337
5879.4839847989
6018.1402103475
6425.9883215255
6736.8408403389
6924.5473989357
7034.7141219616
Guatemala
GTM
3885.6772363388
3815.1760728579
3589.7836399774
3411.3255496803
3344.8965460538
3245.2570590561
3174.0768025152
3211.1858663524
3260.4687885685
3312.2526163587
3337.3485441626
3380.2259929904
3462.2222075721
3515.275176798
3573.1226129786
3664.4102248822
3687.4122597785
3761.5878047096
3860.0024366356
3916.3878717804
3962.5388513984
3957.7850083855
4010.6185253732
4010.8236994273
4035.0645777106
4064.0081617033
4174.2459494954
4308.4291408566
Mexico
MEX
10401.9273845684
11049.0036967775
10732.6809647048
10059.4473422867
10203.0541209898
10252.0390302659
9668.4214835085
9653.6381568892
9584.7901983341
9797.3074198993
10101.2050661542
10333.128842356
10512.6801463774
10524.6617818219
10798.4068915807
9949.2761753176
10299.5394201909
10838.6753926427
11212.3353400442
11485.8265823816
12071.4530484756
11927.3333793878
11904.6861927829
11943.932827931
12297.8670990781
12563.4635238507
13025.3141643117
13307.2697241462
Panama
PAN
6570.7155632154
7013.1547237896
7224.9316330174
6751.1684501597
6786.7495100463
6973.0170971145
7072.6501502034
6803.0733367132
5773.5927202658
5745.4160332256
6085.1881038845
6523.4890534912
6915.4464799553
7144.9253837587
7199.8822688114
7178.271500296
7231.7568033813
7545.1166645357
7938.6573801733
8088.5933722746
8148.9702431784
8041.7793846673
8069.6372748727
8257.2533147655
8721.1724646329
9185.9064544092
9799.3329247011
10756.8411109367
6367.6819824234
6052.6085312983
5456.8964727526
5458.6093852346
5638.6741847074
5543.3710342819
5707.3624766453
5938.7277262906
6005.1531462095
6148.0732531286
6227.8963627408
6231.5738018487
6638.8544590206
6961.59469926
7116.153633041
7214.9367085909
7098.082981029
7306.2602440908
7723.4968073196
8158.5695997989
8117.2856244669
8029.6345213512
8096.2676939543
8450.9529188441
8652.0918275618
9004.313577424
9635.5551479528
10239.0620474102
Honduras
HND
2815.3102175311
2798.4627069737
2676.1283373243
2571.995256311
2603.9379746818
2632.7654198484
2573.9748536048
2650.0110045715
2692.778136489
2730.068230146
2657.0858065396
2668.9145335639
2743.9173016174
2839.397832004
2732.6463867023
2776.1306597709
2810.9438107728
2887.6014198085
2909.5976951788
2796.7196673684
2898.3822094524
2918.5603448491
2969.1207730199
3044.0984692077
3171.4609514975
3298.488389896
3437.8340880874
3584.9314868852
Japan
JPN
18651.5848972156
19057.3737315737
19451.7624612893
19631.0617265311
20115.2795497026
21008.8263353939
21499.0065037897
22205.4304296225
23606.5964112792
24754.0652276645
25952.9040348971
26739.3702176375
26932.352588291
26932.488456465
27135.7839785218
27562.2701116314
28246.6261281926
28615.1389315188
27958.0178738664
27865.4904379599
28612.7681907151
28602.6013715065
28611.0335939055
28953.4542763375
29737.9955222544
30310.3155431923
31041.1039284743
31689.2932614158
China
CHN
523.3092571111
543.514390373
584.3056081107
638.6990125903
726.1903937688
813.0786546392
871.5689591294
957.1976043468
1048.345195683
1074.7230336183
1099.3133633683
1184.1820808111
1335.8637347472
1505.4775202066
1683.558560201
1846.8903184873
2010.3967296203
2174.9894900978
2322.2481750295
2475.2211407644
2664.2060109467
2864.4525184276
3104.2492271737
3393.4717990853
3713.8512851095
4076.3082911039
4523.8293471679
5083.6605404682
13945.1581523673
14890.6268885498
15089.3872440389
15748.5047109205
17141.8666680453
17072.5449555889
18732.4283762626
20994.2166769694
22617.0582973282
22881.395472189
23697.1513068933
24839.7066835966
26132.8527183511
27240.1534848023
28235.1127928271
28316.3117421799
28222.6686569771
29403.910063844
27402.1805193443
27835.4256752034
29785.0003271133
29714.6632981437
30150.9524766393
30943.6299361165
33440.6888182657
35677.9199090373
37937.7152928651
39952.5743436555
Indonesia
IDN
1345.3486764148
1426.1028262308
1414.3689546422
1505.4606249535
1584.014215949
1609.3348765436
1674.7227458648
1732.4431266699
1810.3643305728
1940.2073323618
2077.2580332235
2224.1715265534
2345.9286381127
2477.0048623562
2624.3695638171
2804.7689317209
2977.3156381993
3074.6759152138
2635.1134303687
2620.7213808004
2713.7122853269
2775.5942991147
2862.1035320436
2959.0058049226
3066.2575371838
3197.1588963674
3335.7735294742
3505.7872402451
Malaysia
MYS
4891.3600182119
5103.7650828311
5272.3474080036
5458.4390837746
5726.6480807457
5508.0046633495
5414.7947177507
5542.4059867733
5917.0448042771
6269.4870100291
6645.7701379446
7086.7500393644
7518.3189449812
8054.9664224774
8577.7214520222
9185.2903760938
9850.0367381719
10306.4376352924
9313.1381932815
9651.0105413767
10270.6571633739
10106.173928438
10438.7309595745
10833.1257368939
11355.2668020903
11745.5500106366
12204.5950447207
12766.1928261114
Philippines
PHL
2619.3171159871
2641.6145613817
2670.8530111342
2656.0567463166
2403.1844264159
2174.6907454646
2195.4139421735
2235.5167847993
2329.8061639556
2416.0889919695
2431.4816412276
2361.7231394012
2315.6562306598
2311.4336192805
2359.4138137763
2416.0835566883
2502.8116002599
2577.4902658121
2509.5891287875
2541.2303876096
2637.0827026336
2627.5049440452
2687.2351119914
2761.2661100171
2877.3174673647
2959.1552317413
3057.5768396426
3216.6041072988
5176.2020731955
5410.2078890072
5717.4750853374
6240.8492415021
6663.6854973387
7047.2206499197
7724.0036221267
8500.9787268745
9315.9558941015
9849.2382706548
10628.3199860906
11519.4412027291
12085.953435836
12712.854125767
13674.861495891
14716.8206971136
15597.3693697079
16170.4159948048
14953.6616037517
16256.3157375858
17489.1667968311
18026.335287286
19175.5209649945
19671.5135188281
20524.6967361676
21342.2605403102
22364.078750668
23399.1646660949
Singapore
SGP
14654.1306675185
15325.0749597075
15709.9283175
16831.3731150627
17893.8462654518
17609.82993238
18003.2132232129
19473.5369589136
21166.1854464637
22610.137216396
23754.2575013029
24600.0045234291
25385.3058065357
27655.0650116114
29901.902072183
31372.2984946623
32469.4393762896
34016.5441973017
32427.385387172
34486.3035943993
37303.6530647294
35440.1157265854
36577.4893610356
38414.0701392226
41347.0937098319
43333.8446915146
45430.0923133425
46938.8176077853
Thailand
THA
2255.143923941
2345.5458621126
2428.9348405442
2522.9073724584
2626.6823586611
2708.0252131985
2817.4063968305
3043.7736746203
3403.292831861
3770.0041338874
4139.5443782982
4440.1208117319
4743.2048813609
5076.0005952585
5469.7730268737
5908.0540056719
6186.5895914876
6033.7690168008
5341.0469093859
5521.3965302171
5728.9314389832
5802.7792038565
6063.4861453399
6449.1611439956
6810.226676883
7068.9772030789
7378.3657781448
7682.0333789491
Vietnam
VNM
7.28E+02
7.43E+02
7.58E+02
7.74E+02
Figure3
Affiliates' employment
Share of foreign affiliates' value added in GDP, 2002 and country averaged
Share of foreign affiliates' employment in total employment, 2002 and country averaged
Latin America
Title of table:
Importance of value added and employment contributed by foreign affiliates in East Asia and Latin America
Bolivia
9.0
0.0%
9.0%
Brazil
14.6
21.0
14.6%
21.0%
Chile
13.9
28.0
13.9%
28.0%
Colombia
13.8
14.0
13.8%
14.0%
Output share of MNC affiliates, 1999 and averaged of selected countries
Export share of MNC affiliates, 1999-2001 and averaged of selected countries
Peru
7.6
24.0
7.6%
24.0%
13%
33%
Venezuela
9.1
9.1%
0.0%
11%
25%
Ecuador
11.6
11.6%
0.0%
Average
11.7
20.8
11.7%
20.8%
Foreign affiliates share of exports, 1999-2000 and averaged of selected countries
Guatemala
9.0
9.0%
0.0%
12.9
32.5
12.9%
32.5%
Export share of MNC affiliates, 1999-2001 and averaged of selected countries
0.32530000000000003 0.25
Argentina
10.7%
40.6%
Brazil
20.6%
36.7%
Chile
1.8%
33.9%
Colombia
5.6%
33.2%
China
40.3%
43.0%
Figure5
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
China
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
3,194
3,393
3,487
4,366
11,008
27,515
33,767
37,521
41,726
45,257
45,463
40,319
40,715
46,878
52,743
53,505
60,630
72,406
72,715
83,521.0
Indonesia
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
576
682
1,092
1,482
1,799
2,003
2,191
4,419
6,245
4,729
(207)
(1,838)
(4,495)
(2,926)
232
(507)
1,896
8,337
4,914
6,928.0
Malaysia
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
719
1,668
2,611
4,043
5,138
5,741
4,581
5,815
7,297
6,323
2,714
3,895
3,788
554
3,203
2,473
4,624
3,967
6,048
8,403.1
Philippines
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
999
568
550
556
776
1,238
1,591
1,459
1,520
1,249
1,752
1,247
2,240
195
1,542
491
688
1,854
2,921
2,928.0
Thailand
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
1,106
1,837
2,575
2,049
2,151
1,807
1,369
2,070
2,338
3,882
7,492
6,091
3,349
5,061
3,335
5,235
5,862
8,048
9,010
9,575.3
China
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 3193.68 3392.57 3487.11 4366.34 11007.51 27514.95 33766.5 37520.53 41725.519999999997 45257.04 45462.75 40318.71 40714.81 46877.59 52742.86 53504.7 60630 72406 72715 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 33.28 30.72 30.72 18.43 14.85 14.8 14.03 13.74 13.04 13.04 6.67 5.88 5.35 4.6500000000000004
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Philippines
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 999 568 550 556 776 1238 1591 1459 1520 1249 1752 1247 2240 195 1542 491 688 1854 2921 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 23.53 23.52 14.97 14.97 14.93 15.3 15.02 14.25 14.25 14.25 5.69 5.75 3.53 3.21 2.09 2.02 3.13 3.29 3.29
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Thailand
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1105.9939999999999 1837 2575 2049 2151 1807 1369 2070 2338 3882 7492 6091 3349 5061 3335 5235 5862 8048.0819106387999 9010.1933591565994 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 35.89 35.89 35.89 34.86 34.86 37.07 37.07 15.83 15.83 15.83 15.83 15.83 10.130000000000001 10.73 10.73 11.06 11.06 6.62 6.54
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Indonesia
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 576 682 1092 1482 1799 2003 2191 4419 6245 4729 -207 -1838 -4495 -2926 232 -507 1896 8337 4914 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 15.55 15.55 15.82 15.82 15.82 14.51 14.51 13.15 9.36 9.36 9.36 8.11 6.71 5.47 6.25 5.68 6.52 6.53 6.53
FDI inflow (million USD)
‘Challenges Faced by ASEAN members’ Economies’
Ratio of ASEAN-China Trade & ASEAN- India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
19 96
19 97
19 98
19 99
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
Ratio of ASEAN - China Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade Ratio of ASEAN - India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
Challenges & Opportunities for ASEAN
2. Improve ASEAN’s international competitiveness+
China & India
Opportunities: ASEAN and the ASEAN Member Countries to grow and have deeper economic linkages (via
implementation of AEC Blueprint and ASEAN Connectivity)
Challenges
Major examples CEPT rates very low to
nearly zero NSW operational in 5
AMSs ATIGA ROOs business
friendly ASEAN + 1 FTAs/RCEP Chiang Mai Initiative RIATS in force under
ASEAN - X
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Regulation
‘Burden’ Performance
Logistics and trade facilitation
20.6% • ‘Burdensome’ import procedures
12.9% • Corruption at the border
11.7% • High cost or delays caused by domestic transport
‘burden’ DEFINED by CEOs of major corporations (average % of responses across ASEAN countries)
Burdensome import procedures
• No customs EDI • No de minimis level • Import licensing • Rate of physical inspection • No customs appeals • Customs clearance times • Customs operating hours • ETC ETC
Contestability of links in transport chain
• Restrictions on hours of truck operation
• Restrictions on equity participation in logistics
• Licensing restrictions in logistics • Cabotage restrictions in air transport • Difficulty of firing • ETC ETC
‘Burden’ DEFINED BY ASEAN LSPs
25% better customs
25% more contestability
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
‘Address Non-tariff Barriers’’ (contributed by Dr. Lili Yan Ing (ERIA)
We should treat NTMs differently from tariff
While tariffs have been reduced, the number of non-tariff measures (NTMs) is increasing, and is often blamed to be one source of the lack of integration in ASEAN and East ASEAN.
…unlike tariff, NTMs could play a role of check and balance for the quality of goods:
health, safety and environmental protection.
“Looking ahead: from protection to precaution” Pascal Lamy
To increase integration in the region, it is our tasks to improve transparency and streamline NTMs
1. Context
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average tariff (%)Number of NTMs Tariffs and NTMs in ASEAN
SPS TBT Pre-shipment inspection
distribution restriction restriction on post-sales subsidies
Government procurement restrictions Intellectual property Rules of Origin
Export related measures Average Tariff: Effectively Applied Rate (RHS) Average Tariff: MFN (RHS)
2. NTMs in ASEAN
measures (%) Others
(%)(number) (%) (%) Brunei 516 31 56 9 4 Cambodia 243 15 50 29 7 Indonesia 638 20 51 12 18 Lao PDR 301 13 30 27 30 Malaysia 713 36 47 10 7 Myanmar 172 44 24 20 12 Philippines 854 27 42 17 13 Singapore 529 24 59 9 7 Thailand 1,630 48 34 8 9 Viet Nam 379 37 37 17 8 Total / average 5,975 29 43 16 12
A country with a relatively higher number of measures does not mean it is relatively more protectionist than others.
Source: Ing, Cadot, Anandhika and Urata (2016), data on NTMs are from http://asean.i-tip.org and data on tariff are from WITS database.
2. For Business
‘Deepen Services Liberalization’’
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 3
LRs of AFAS 7 and 8, Mode 3, accross groups of subsectors, ASEAN Average (in %)
91.2 91.1
79.1 81.9
62.6 62.3
71.1 70.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 1
Scoring of AFAS 7 & 8 (Mode 1), Across Groups of Subsectors, AMS Average (in%)
Services Liberalization Rates with 15 % Flexibility
• The use of Flexibility Rule increases the LR of AFAS 8, by about 14 percentage points. • The increase applies to all groups of subsectors (i.e., PIS, LOG, and
OTHER).
• Question arises: what can we learn from looking at the source of the increase?
69.2
82.7
69.1
81.1
70.1
84.7
69.8
84.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 3
LRs of AFAS 8, Mode 3, ASEAN Average: with ERIA formula and 15%-Flexibility Rule (in %)
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
‘Do More with SMEs’’
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
‘Learning from Advance Countries through FTAs: Effective Economic Cooperation’’
Economic Cooperation under AANZFTA
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
ASEAN should go deeper within the border of their member states to conduct ‘behind border refoms’
This means regulatory reforms
Private Sector Involvement; AEC Monitoring and Technical Resource
• Embed and increase private sector participation in ASEAN working groups, committees and other ASEAN bodies as much as possible.
• Avoid duplication by streamlining public-private dialogue channels
Private Sector
Involve- ment
• Introduce third party monitoring and technical resource by ASEAN Secretariat (ASEC)
• Strengthen ASEC as technical resource
• Introduce coordinated TRACK 1.5 MECHANISM at regional and national levels
AEC Monitoring
and Technical Resource
ASEAN@50 Survey Voices of ASEAN People (contributed by Dr. Ponciano Intal, Jr.)
• 2,322 respondents from all ASEAN countries represented diverse ages and sectors
• Almost all respondents were at least 'slightly familiar' with ASEAN
• Awareness has increased significantly since 2014, but mostly about the economic pillar
• 2/3rds perceived membership in ASEAN as ‘moderately’ to ‘very much’ beneficial to their countries
ASEAN@50 Survey – Continued
• More than 3/4ths of all respondents feel 'moderately' to 'very much' like ‘ASEAN citizens’, however this is mostly based upon geographic belonging
• People are most concerned about non-- economic matters; e.g., corruption, climate change and natural disasters, income disparity and social inequality
• ASEAN peoples aspire for and largely expect an ASEAN in 2025 that is integrated, connected, resilient and a significant player in global and regional affairs
Thank you for your attention
Dionisius Narjoko
ASEAN Economic Community:Embracing the Future, Learning from the Past
The Presentation
GDP per capita (US$), ASEAN countries, 1990-2015
Population, ASEAN countries, 1990-2010
ASEAN Imports of Services to Australia - New Zealand (million USD)
Why ASEAN integration is important?‘Ideal Location for Production Platform”
8
Production networks are unique to East Asia and ASEAN countries.
Trade in machinery and components
Why ASEAN integration is important?‘Challenges Faced by ASEAN members’ Economies’
Ratio of ASEAN-China Trade & ASEAN-India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
Challenges & Opportunities for ASEAN
14
15
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Go Deeper with Facilitations (Trade and Investment)’’
Logistics and trade facilitation
‘burden’ DEFINED by CEOs of major corporations(average % of responses across ASEAN countries)
‘Burden’ DEFINED BY ASEAN LSPs
Quantifying the GAINS FOR ASEAN
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Address Non-tariff Barriers’’(contributed by Dr. Lili Yan Ing (ERIA)
22
2. NTMs in ASEAN
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Deepen Services Liberalization’’
AFAS Services Liberalization Rates
Services Liberalization Rates with 15 % Flexibility
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Do More with SMEs’’
Awareness of ASEAN Economic Community
Food Products: % Firms with ASEAN Trade
Wearing Apparel: % Firms with ASEAN Trade
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Learning from Advance Countries through FTAs: Effective Economic Cooperation’’
Economic Cooperation under AANZFTA
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEANASEAN should go deeper within the border of their member states to conduct ‘behind border refoms’This means regulatory reformsInput from business are needed
Private Sector Involvement; AEC Monitoring and Technical Resource
ASEAN@50 SurveyVoices of ASEAN People (contributed by Dr. Ponciano Intal, Jr.)
ASEAN@50 Survey – Continued
Dionisius Narjoko
“Reviews on ASEAN’s 50 years Path to ASEAN Community”
Tokyo, 8 August 2017
• ‘Embracing the Future’: new reform agenda for ASEAN
• ‘ASEAN@50 Survey’
‘High Demand; Growth Opportunities”
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Singapore Brunei Darussalam Malaysia Thailand Indonesia
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Philippines Vietnam Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia
Source: The World Bank
Population, ASEAN countries, 1990-2010
ASEAN Imports of Services to Australia - New Zealand (million USD)
690.7
1016.19
915.29
669.43
81.57 87.17 175.45
546.59
1013.22
1797.46
1600.58
2399.05
PB: production blocks SL: service links
8
PB
Production networks are unique to East Asia and ASEAN countries.
Trade in machinery and components
Chart2
Figure1
-0.6%
-0.2%
-3.2%
4.5%
5.1%
4.5%
3.1%
0.2%
2.6%
-1.4%
2.9%
1.5%
3.7%
4.9%
0.9%
3.0%
4.6%
1.6%
0.8%
4.6%
0.5%
1.2%
1.5%
5.4%
3.6%
4.5%
5.0%
1.5%
3.0%
6.5%
0.0240305745
3.4%
4.5%
4.7%
7.4%
8.0%
5.1%
6.8%
8.3%
4.3%
4.1%
5.8%
7.2%
7.3%
7.7%
7.1%
7.0%
6.2%
3.7%
4.9%
6.5%
5.7%
6.5%
7.5%
8.0%
8.2%
9.3%
10.5%
5.7%
7.0%
2.4%
0.0649899711
GDP growth, Latin America 1981-2007 6.4989971118978723E-2 GDP growth, East Asia 1981-2007 Average annual GDP growth, 1981-2007 2.4030574450517112E-2
Figure2
10088.8842521743
9371.8781808647
8772.690541484
8974.7774042316
9035.2340937917
8225.3849029334
8742.5958096137
8866.104173484
8515.2046164874
7764.9905206425
7472.3909560482
8302.5549548176
9167.2636196612
9579.1012551453
10006.2825532604
9598.9963555366
10005.7218158913
10689.1452507518
10973.6023948032
10485.193795099
10292.1596296135
9738.4420170452
8592.7067776274
9262.7315607203
10002.6863946249
10814.960107875
11614.5124426087
12501.6234078757
Bolivia
BOL
3777.287391561
3705.1227237086
3483.377487737
3272.2498561975
3196.8226624612
3076.1424014942
2932.1856816505
2938.8382261695
2957.5958411106
3001.150258812
3069.4012052653
3157.2993345765
3135.4502483048
3194.1984160114
3267.434452415
3344.2782828887
3414.4104470903
3507.5391131849
3607.2284719849
3548.1279082713
3562.9618218145
3549.7155530396
3565.2426024488
3589.8287067693
3667.4988921298
3757.5123035539
3865.4236092867
3972.3408561319
Brazil
BRA
7572.5342245927
7072.8180399582
6950.8627380963
6562.6009662782
6757.2972837069
7140.8085029109
7555.6599394385
7675.9664555893
7525.6024716182
7633.9753564642
7180.921727435
7170.3640777509
7025.0360684552
7240.9644844877
7512.8656429425
7727.344983504
7775.2225230054
7917.3404280806
7802.2689256337
7706.3007210075
7921.1223649764
7909.5103273429
8004.5148242878
7983.1324764454
8323.6005063549
8470.9944182236
8673.3080778485
9034.4187242776
Chile
CHL
5368.9491100253
5539.1634231429
4890.2292519451
4629.8665638421
4917.7268687162
5181.3442572797
5381.07516414
5640.7336539926
5951.4970134207
6467.3186608227
6589.0998943758
6986.9345004766
7702.6892761263
8093.0049701282
8407.2141449736
9149.3195071127
9678.333185925
10171.011087325
10359.2322823452
10149.4084320187
10474.8209080201
10700.4554699136
10809.8649239897
11109.7890858049
11654.6936372467
12173.3109500017
12595.5311033653
13108.1740615452
Colombia
COL
5163.0200539829
5164.793390189
5105.6229858459
5083.3900671404
5153.6067448962
5214.9383926033
5410.7796642765
5590.6671164316
5706.0656713412
5788.9551340724
6023.3656762952
6037.0660963891
6217.7502676311
6244.1208044058
6486.0506316589
6699.701834221
6707.8510594694
6813.2172946762
6735.2174455836
6347.6355339034
6432.9499872901
6465.02854823
6520.6648863857
6720.3343986593
6933.9984521609
7231.0426598512
7635.1863603119
8109.030599377
Peru
PER
6069.9566624137
6345.333256113
6155.6886353731
5301.757804233
5448.6494841727
5473.6735905114
5885.8779071346
6216.542176498
5553.2305143369
4800.575386408
4461.1288145671
4468.1653566729
4364.4923404133
4488.8925575191
4975.8766507292
5314.1828027897
5361.6450827232
5643.207000285
5525.3596296108
5498.9541932105
5586.0752805321
5526.431190276
5732.0474112727
5891.4604112272
6111.9164739945
6453.5787634199
6873.9021070217
7399.6648842849
11551.9209156473
11155.9168361645
10599.8523573105
9907.813679011
9772.1851569457
9529.2385927434
9887.4377956235
9985.57272602
10310.652780615
9204.5835250139
9573.9569394046
10272.9843943909
10651.9170635817
10447.6092607382
9983.7576316849
10161.705468058
9934.7315235107
10357.3160664298
10186.3433291753
9395.9754870329
9564.4712430265
9707.8213559309
8688.4998772982
7872.9548942914
9151.1847900093
9924.4619660707
10767.4393087834
11479.9727423974
Ecuador
ECU
5794.188500379
5826.6238480629
5638.4029097638
5350.7427964046
5411.7605409706
5427.3986793552
5506.8301719975
5256.5165943769
5559.6599421373
5482.6869026771
5501.2074207528
5658.1466588131
5619.601379781
5519.1072531787
5664.8025971995
5657.6404403779
5693.6043783794
5829.0083154407
5862.4063087091
5414.9442952672
5491.4672008162
5710.0648561337
5879.4839847989
6018.1402103475
6425.9883215255
6736.8408403389
6924.5473989357
7034.7141219616
Guatemala
GTM
3885.6772363388
3815.1760728579
3589.7836399774
3411.3255496803
3344.8965460538
3245.2570590561
3174.0768025152
3211.1858663524
3260.4687885685
3312.2526163587
3337.3485441626
3380.2259929904
3462.2222075721
3515.275176798
3573.1226129786
3664.4102248822
3687.4122597785
3761.5878047096
3860.0024366356
3916.3878717804
3962.5388513984
3957.7850083855
4010.6185253732
4010.8236994273
4035.0645777106
4064.0081617033
4174.2459494954
4308.4291408566
Mexico
MEX
10401.9273845684
11049.0036967775
10732.6809647048
10059.4473422867
10203.0541209898
10252.0390302659
9668.4214835085
9653.6381568892
9584.7901983341
9797.3074198993
10101.2050661542
10333.128842356
10512.6801463774
10524.6617818219
10798.4068915807
9949.2761753176
10299.5394201909
10838.6753926427
11212.3353400442
11485.8265823816
12071.4530484756
11927.3333793878
11904.6861927829
11943.932827931
12297.8670990781
12563.4635238507
13025.3141643117
13307.2697241462
Panama
PAN
6570.7155632154
7013.1547237896
7224.9316330174
6751.1684501597
6786.7495100463
6973.0170971145
7072.6501502034
6803.0733367132
5773.5927202658
5745.4160332256
6085.1881038845
6523.4890534912
6915.4464799553
7144.9253837587
7199.8822688114
7178.271500296
7231.7568033813
7545.1166645357
7938.6573801733
8088.5933722746
8148.9702431784
8041.7793846673
8069.6372748727
8257.2533147655
8721.1724646329
9185.9064544092
9799.3329247011
10756.8411109367
6367.6819824234
6052.6085312983
5456.8964727526
5458.6093852346
5638.6741847074
5543.3710342819
5707.3624766453
5938.7277262906
6005.1531462095
6148.0732531286
6227.8963627408
6231.5738018487
6638.8544590206
6961.59469926
7116.153633041
7214.9367085909
7098.082981029
7306.2602440908
7723.4968073196
8158.5695997989
8117.2856244669
8029.6345213512
8096.2676939543
8450.9529188441
8652.0918275618
9004.313577424
9635.5551479528
10239.0620474102
Honduras
HND
2815.3102175311
2798.4627069737
2676.1283373243
2571.995256311
2603.9379746818
2632.7654198484
2573.9748536048
2650.0110045715
2692.778136489
2730.068230146
2657.0858065396
2668.9145335639
2743.9173016174
2839.397832004
2732.6463867023
2776.1306597709
2810.9438107728
2887.6014198085
2909.5976951788
2796.7196673684
2898.3822094524
2918.5603448491
2969.1207730199
3044.0984692077
3171.4609514975
3298.488389896
3437.8340880874
3584.9314868852
Japan
JPN
18651.5848972156
19057.3737315737
19451.7624612893
19631.0617265311
20115.2795497026
21008.8263353939
21499.0065037897
22205.4304296225
23606.5964112792
24754.0652276645
25952.9040348971
26739.3702176375
26932.352588291
26932.488456465
27135.7839785218
27562.2701116314
28246.6261281926
28615.1389315188
27958.0178738664
27865.4904379599
28612.7681907151
28602.6013715065
28611.0335939055
28953.4542763375
29737.9955222544
30310.3155431923
31041.1039284743
31689.2932614158
China
CHN
523.3092571111
543.514390373
584.3056081107
638.6990125903
726.1903937688
813.0786546392
871.5689591294
957.1976043468
1048.345195683
1074.7230336183
1099.3133633683
1184.1820808111
1335.8637347472
1505.4775202066
1683.558560201
1846.8903184873
2010.3967296203
2174.9894900978
2322.2481750295
2475.2211407644
2664.2060109467
2864.4525184276
3104.2492271737
3393.4717990853
3713.8512851095
4076.3082911039
4523.8293471679
5083.6605404682
13945.1581523673
14890.6268885498
15089.3872440389
15748.5047109205
17141.8666680453
17072.5449555889
18732.4283762626
20994.2166769694
22617.0582973282
22881.395472189
23697.1513068933
24839.7066835966
26132.8527183511
27240.1534848023
28235.1127928271
28316.3117421799
28222.6686569771
29403.910063844
27402.1805193443
27835.4256752034
29785.0003271133
29714.6632981437
30150.9524766393
30943.6299361165
33440.6888182657
35677.9199090373
37937.7152928651
39952.5743436555
Indonesia
IDN
1345.3486764148
1426.1028262308
1414.3689546422
1505.4606249535
1584.014215949
1609.3348765436
1674.7227458648
1732.4431266699
1810.3643305728
1940.2073323618
2077.2580332235
2224.1715265534
2345.9286381127
2477.0048623562
2624.3695638171
2804.7689317209
2977.3156381993
3074.6759152138
2635.1134303687
2620.7213808004
2713.7122853269
2775.5942991147
2862.1035320436
2959.0058049226
3066.2575371838
3197.1588963674
3335.7735294742
3505.7872402451
Malaysia
MYS
4891.3600182119
5103.7650828311
5272.3474080036
5458.4390837746
5726.6480807457
5508.0046633495
5414.7947177507
5542.4059867733
5917.0448042771
6269.4870100291
6645.7701379446
7086.7500393644
7518.3189449812
8054.9664224774
8577.7214520222
9185.2903760938
9850.0367381719
10306.4376352924
9313.1381932815
9651.0105413767
10270.6571633739
10106.173928438
10438.7309595745
10833.1257368939
11355.2668020903
11745.5500106366
12204.5950447207
12766.1928261114
Philippines
PHL
2619.3171159871
2641.6145613817
2670.8530111342
2656.0567463166
2403.1844264159
2174.6907454646
2195.4139421735
2235.5167847993
2329.8061639556
2416.0889919695
2431.4816412276
2361.7231394012
2315.6562306598
2311.4336192805
2359.4138137763
2416.0835566883
2502.8116002599
2577.4902658121
2509.5891287875
2541.2303876096
2637.0827026336
2627.5049440452
2687.2351119914
2761.2661100171
2877.3174673647
2959.1552317413
3057.5768396426
3216.6041072988
5176.2020731955
5410.2078890072
5717.4750853374
6240.8492415021
6663.6854973387
7047.2206499197
7724.0036221267
8500.9787268745
9315.9558941015
9849.2382706548
10628.3199860906
11519.4412027291
12085.953435836
12712.854125767
13674.861495891
14716.8206971136
15597.3693697079
16170.4159948048
14953.6616037517
16256.3157375858
17489.1667968311
18026.335287286
19175.5209649945
19671.5135188281
20524.6967361676
21342.2605403102
22364.078750668
23399.1646660949
Singapore
SGP
14654.1306675185
15325.0749597075
15709.9283175
16831.3731150627
17893.8462654518
17609.82993238
18003.2132232129
19473.5369589136
21166.1854464637
22610.137216396
23754.2575013029
24600.0045234291
25385.3058065357
27655.0650116114
29901.902072183
31372.2984946623
32469.4393762896
34016.5441973017
32427.385387172
34486.3035943993
37303.6530647294
35440.1157265854
36577.4893610356
38414.0701392226
41347.0937098319
43333.8446915146
45430.0923133425
46938.8176077853
Thailand
THA
2255.143923941
2345.5458621126
2428.9348405442
2522.9073724584
2626.6823586611
2708.0252131985
2817.4063968305
3043.7736746203
3403.292831861
3770.0041338874
4139.5443782982
4440.1208117319
4743.2048813609
5076.0005952585
5469.7730268737
5908.0540056719
6186.5895914876
6033.7690168008
5341.0469093859
5521.3965302171
5728.9314389832
5802.7792038565
6063.4861453399
6449.1611439956
6810.226676883
7068.9772030789
7378.3657781448
7682.0333789491
Vietnam
VNM
7.28E+02
7.43E+02
7.58E+02
7.74E+02
Figure3
Affiliates' employment
Share of foreign affiliates' value added in GDP, 2002 and country averaged
Share of foreign affiliates' employment in total employment, 2002 and country averaged
Latin America
Title of table:
Importance of value added and employment contributed by foreign affiliates in East Asia and Latin America
Bolivia
9.0
0.0%
9.0%
Brazil
14.6
21.0
14.6%
21.0%
Chile
13.9
28.0
13.9%
28.0%
Colombia
13.8
14.0
13.8%
14.0%
Output share of MNC affiliates, 1999 and averaged of selected countries
Export share of MNC affiliates, 1999-2001 and averaged of selected countries
Peru
7.6
24.0
7.6%
24.0%
13%
33%
Venezuela
9.1
9.1%
0.0%
11%
25%
Ecuador
11.6
11.6%
0.0%
Average
11.7
20.8
11.7%
20.8%
Foreign affiliates share of exports, 1999-2000 and averaged of selected countries
Guatemala
9.0
9.0%
0.0%
12.9
32.5
12.9%
32.5%
Export share of MNC affiliates, 1999-2001 and averaged of selected countries
0.32530000000000003 0.25
Argentina
10.7%
40.6%
Brazil
20.6%
36.7%
Chile
1.8%
33.9%
Colombia
5.6%
33.2%
China
40.3%
43.0%
Figure5
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
China
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
3,194
3,393
3,487
4,366
11,008
27,515
33,767
37,521
41,726
45,257
45,463
40,319
40,715
46,878
52,743
53,505
60,630
72,406
72,715
83,521.0
Indonesia
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
576
682
1,092
1,482
1,799
2,003
2,191
4,419
6,245
4,729
(207)
(1,838)
(4,495)
(2,926)
232
(507)
1,896
8,337
4,914
6,928.0
Malaysia
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
719
1,668
2,611
4,043
5,138
5,741
4,581
5,815
7,297
6,323
2,714
3,895
3,788
554
3,203
2,473
4,624
3,967
6,048
8,403.1
Philippines
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
999
568
550
556
776
1,238
1,591
1,459
1,520
1,249
1,752
1,247
2,240
195
1,542
491
688
1,854
2,921
2,928.0
Thailand
FDI inflow
A satisfied Microsoft Office user: FDI inflows and outflows comprise capital provided (either directly or through other related enterprises) by a foreign direct investor to a FDI enterprise, or capital received by a foreign direct investor from a FDI enterprise. FDI includes the three following components: equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company loans. - Equity capital is the foreign direct investor's purchase of shares of an enterprise in a country other than that of its residence. - Reinvested earnings comprise the direct investor's share (in proportion to direct equity participation) of earnings not distributed as dividends by affiliates or earnings not remitted to the direct investor. Such retained profits by affiliates are reinvested. - Intra-company loans or intra-company debt transactions refer to short- or long-term borrowing and lending of funds between direct investors (parent enterprises) and affiliate enterprises. Data on FDI flows are presented on net bases (capital transactions' credits less debits between direct investors and their foreign affiliates). Net decreases in assets or net increases in liabilities are recorded as credits (with a positive sign), while net increases in assets or net decreases in liabilities are recorded as debits (with a negative sign). Hence, FDI flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI is negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are called reverse investment or disinvestment.
1,106
1,837
2,575
2,049
2,151
1,807
1,369
2,070
2,338
3,882
7,492
6,091
3,349
5,061
3,335
5,235
5,862
8,048
9,010
9,575.3
China
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 3193.68 3392.57 3487.11 4366.34 11007.51 27514.95 33766.5 37520.53 41725.519999999997 45257.04 45462.75 40318.71 40714.81 46877.59 52742.86 53504.7 60630 72406 72715 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 36.409999999999997 33.28 30.72 30.72 18.43 14.85 14.8 14.03 13.74 13.04 13.04 6.67 5.88 5.35 4.6500000000000004
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Philippines
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 999 568 550 556 776 1238 1591 1459 1520 1249 1752 1247 2240 195 1542 491 688 1854 2921 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 23.53 23.52 14.97 14.97 14.93 15.3 15.02 14.25 14.25 14.25 5.69 5.75 3.53 3.21 2.09 2.02 3.13 3.29 3.29
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Thailand
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1105.9939999999999 1837 2575 2049 2151 1807 1369 2070 2338 3882 7492 6091 3349 5061 3335 5235 5862 8048.0819106387999 9010.1933591565994 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 35.89 35.89 35.89 34.86 34.86 37.07 37.07 15.83 15.83 15.83 15.83 15.83 10.130000000000001 10.73 10.73 11.06 11.06 6.62 6.54
FDI inflow (million USD)
Tariffs (%)
Indonesia
FDI inflow 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 576 682 1092 1482 1799 2003 2191 4419 6245 4729 -207 -1838 -4495 -2926 232 -507 1896 8337 4914 Manufactured goods tariffs 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 15.55 15.55 15.82 15.82 15.82 14.51 14.51 13.15 9.36 9.36 9.36 8.11 6.71 5.47 6.25 5.68 6.52 6.53 6.53
FDI inflow (million USD)
‘Challenges Faced by ASEAN members’ Economies’
Ratio of ASEAN-China Trade & ASEAN- India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
19 96
19 97
19 98
19 99
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
Ratio of ASEAN - China Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade Ratio of ASEAN - India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
Challenges & Opportunities for ASEAN
2. Improve ASEAN’s international competitiveness+
China & India
Opportunities: ASEAN and the ASEAN Member Countries to grow and have deeper economic linkages (via
implementation of AEC Blueprint and ASEAN Connectivity)
Challenges
Major examples CEPT rates very low to
nearly zero NSW operational in 5
AMSs ATIGA ROOs business
friendly ASEAN + 1 FTAs/RCEP Chiang Mai Initiative RIATS in force under
ASEAN - X
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Regulation
‘Burden’ Performance
Logistics and trade facilitation
20.6% • ‘Burdensome’ import procedures
12.9% • Corruption at the border
11.7% • High cost or delays caused by domestic transport
‘burden’ DEFINED by CEOs of major corporations (average % of responses across ASEAN countries)
Burdensome import procedures
• No customs EDI • No de minimis level • Import licensing • Rate of physical inspection • No customs appeals • Customs clearance times • Customs operating hours • ETC ETC
Contestability of links in transport chain
• Restrictions on hours of truck operation
• Restrictions on equity participation in logistics
• Licensing restrictions in logistics • Cabotage restrictions in air transport • Difficulty of firing • ETC ETC
‘Burden’ DEFINED BY ASEAN LSPs
25% better customs
25% more contestability
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
‘Address Non-tariff Barriers’’ (contributed by Dr. Lili Yan Ing (ERIA)
We should treat NTMs differently from tariff
While tariffs have been reduced, the number of non-tariff measures (NTMs) is increasing, and is often blamed to be one source of the lack of integration in ASEAN and East ASEAN.
…unlike tariff, NTMs could play a role of check and balance for the quality of goods:
health, safety and environmental protection.
“Looking ahead: from protection to precaution” Pascal Lamy
To increase integration in the region, it is our tasks to improve transparency and streamline NTMs
1. Context
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average tariff (%)Number of NTMs Tariffs and NTMs in ASEAN
SPS TBT Pre-shipment inspection
distribution restriction restriction on post-sales subsidies
Government procurement restrictions Intellectual property Rules of Origin
Export related measures Average Tariff: Effectively Applied Rate (RHS) Average Tariff: MFN (RHS)
2. NTMs in ASEAN
measures (%) Others
(%)(number) (%) (%) Brunei 516 31 56 9 4 Cambodia 243 15 50 29 7 Indonesia 638 20 51 12 18 Lao PDR 301 13 30 27 30 Malaysia 713 36 47 10 7 Myanmar 172 44 24 20 12 Philippines 854 27 42 17 13 Singapore 529 24 59 9 7 Thailand 1,630 48 34 8 9 Viet Nam 379 37 37 17 8 Total / average 5,975 29 43 16 12
A country with a relatively higher number of measures does not mean it is relatively more protectionist than others.
Source: Ing, Cadot, Anandhika and Urata (2016), data on NTMs are from http://asean.i-tip.org and data on tariff are from WITS database.
2. For Business
‘Deepen Services Liberalization’’
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 3
LRs of AFAS 7 and 8, Mode 3, accross groups of subsectors, ASEAN Average (in %)
91.2 91.1
79.1 81.9
62.6 62.3
71.1 70.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8 AFAS 7 AFAS 8
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 1
Scoring of AFAS 7 & 8 (Mode 1), Across Groups of Subsectors, AMS Average (in%)
Services Liberalization Rates with 15 % Flexibility
• The use of Flexibility Rule increases the LR of AFAS 8, by about 14 percentage points. • The increase applies to all groups of subsectors (i.e., PIS, LOG, and
OTHER).
• Question arises: what can we learn from looking at the source of the increase?
69.2
82.7
69.1
81.1
70.1
84.7
69.8
84.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule ERIA Formula Flexibility Rule
PIS LOG OTHERS All Sectors
Mode 3
LRs of AFAS 8, Mode 3, ASEAN Average: with ERIA formula and 15%-Flexibility Rule (in %)
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
‘Do More with SMEs’’
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
‘Learning from Advance Countries through FTAs: Effective Economic Cooperation’’
Economic Cooperation under AANZFTA
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN
ASEAN should go deeper within the border of their member states to conduct ‘behind border refoms’
This means regulatory reforms
Private Sector Involvement; AEC Monitoring and Technical Resource
• Embed and increase private sector participation in ASEAN working groups, committees and other ASEAN bodies as much as possible.
• Avoid duplication by streamlining public-private dialogue channels
Private Sector
Involve- ment
• Introduce third party monitoring and technical resource by ASEAN Secretariat (ASEC)
• Strengthen ASEC as technical resource
• Introduce coordinated TRACK 1.5 MECHANISM at regional and national levels
AEC Monitoring
and Technical Resource
ASEAN@50 Survey Voices of ASEAN People (contributed by Dr. Ponciano Intal, Jr.)
• 2,322 respondents from all ASEAN countries represented diverse ages and sectors
• Almost all respondents were at least 'slightly familiar' with ASEAN
• Awareness has increased significantly since 2014, but mostly about the economic pillar
• 2/3rds perceived membership in ASEAN as ‘moderately’ to ‘very much’ beneficial to their countries
ASEAN@50 Survey – Continued
• More than 3/4ths of all respondents feel 'moderately' to 'very much' like ‘ASEAN citizens’, however this is mostly based upon geographic belonging
• People are most concerned about non-- economic matters; e.g., corruption, climate change and natural disasters, income disparity and social inequality
• ASEAN peoples aspire for and largely expect an ASEAN in 2025 that is integrated, connected, resilient and a significant player in global and regional affairs
Thank you for your attention
Dionisius Narjoko
ASEAN Economic Community:Embracing the Future, Learning from the Past
The Presentation
GDP per capita (US$), ASEAN countries, 1990-2015
Population, ASEAN countries, 1990-2010
ASEAN Imports of Services to Australia - New Zealand (million USD)
Why ASEAN integration is important?‘Ideal Location for Production Platform”
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Production networks are unique to East Asia and ASEAN countries.
Trade in machinery and components
Why ASEAN integration is important?‘Challenges Faced by ASEAN members’ Economies’
Ratio of ASEAN-China Trade & ASEAN-India Trade to Intra ASEAN Trade
Challenges & Opportunities for ASEAN
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‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Go Deeper with Facilitations (Trade and Investment)’’
Logistics and trade facilitation
‘burden’ DEFINED by CEOs of major corporations(average % of responses across ASEAN countries)
‘Burden’ DEFINED BY ASEAN LSPs
Quantifying the GAINS FOR ASEAN
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Address Non-tariff Barriers’’(contributed by Dr. Lili Yan Ing (ERIA)
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2. NTMs in ASEAN
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Deepen Services Liberalization’’
AFAS Services Liberalization Rates
Services Liberalization Rates with 15 % Flexibility
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Do More with SMEs’’
Awareness of ASEAN Economic Community
Food Products: % Firms with ASEAN Trade
Wearing Apparel: % Firms with ASEAN Trade
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEAN‘Learning from Advance Countries through FTAs: Effective Economic Cooperation’’
Economic Cooperation under AANZFTA
‘Embracing the Future’: Reform Agenda for ASEANASEAN should go deeper within the border of their member states to conduct ‘behind border refoms’This means regulatory reformsInput from business are needed
Private Sector Involvement; AEC Monitoring and Technical Resource
ASEAN@50 SurveyVoices of ASEAN People (contributed by Dr. Ponciano Intal, Jr.)
ASEAN@50 Survey – Continued