ARVIN-FEW: ARizona Value INtegrated

Food, Energy, Water Model Hwee Hwang, Kevin Lansey, and Robert Arnold

WRRC Brown Bag Seminar October 31, 2016

What is ARVIN-FEW?

§ A framework for design and operation of sustainable and robust interdependent infrastructures.

§ A large food, energy, and water allocation model that will form the basis of a stand-alone model.

§ First constructed as a system dynamics model and it will be transferred to a general network flow optimization model.

ARizona Value INtegrated Food, Energy, Water Model

Lower Colorado River Scale

Basin Level

Legal RightsPolitical Decisions

Climate

State Level

Legal and Political DemandInter-Planning Area Transfer

Arizona Scale

Basin Level

Legal RightsPolitical Decisions

Climate

State Level

Legal and Political DemandInter-Planning Area Transfer

Multiple Planning Area Scale

Basin Level

Legal RightsPolitical Decisions

Climate

Planning Area Level

Infrastructure DecisionsWater Conservation

Wat

er A

lloca

tion

Econ. &

System

Security

Why Multi-Scale Modeling?

Source: HDR

§ Groundwater transfer

§ Surface water transfer

§ Statewide water desalination

Interstate Transmission Lines

Source: ENERGY.GOV

Agriculture in Arizona

Source: ADWR

§ Arizona’s agricultural production covers ~900,000 acres

§ Annual agricultural water use is ~4.9 million AF accounting for ~70% of the state’s water supply

§  In 2012, Arizona exported $1.2 billion in agriculture product (virtual water).

Water   Energy  

Agriculture  

Pumping  Treatment  

Cooling  

Hydropower  

Fuel production  

Irrigation (Virtual Water)  

Pollution   Biofuels  

Food distribution  Fertilizer  

Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Motivation

§  Imbalance between water supply and demand •  The long-term projected imbalance in future supply and

demand is about 3.2 million acre-feet (MAF) by 2060 (USBOR).

•  Arizona could face an annual water supply imbalance in the next decades about 1 MAF (ADWR).

•  Potential management and infrastructure alternatives are proposed by USBOR and ADWR.

§ Agriculture is the predominant user of water in Arizona §  Increasing energy demand §  Lack of quantitative integrated resource planning

model tool

Presentation Goals

§ Find a coordinated approach to solution of the multi-scale problem

§  Introduce ARizona Value INtegrated Food, Energy, and Water Model (ARVIN-FEW)

§ ARVIN-FEW applications

§ Motivate a broader discussion of our vision for ARVIN-FEW

ARVIN’s Modeling Coverage §  22 Strategic Planning Areas §  151 cities (70 cities with

pop.≥  5000) §  Power plants

•  5 coal generating stations •  11 hydroelectric generating stations •  31 natural gas stations

§  Mines §  Agriculture

•  Crop pattern

System Dynamics Representation of FEW Systems

Potable  Water  Transmission  Line

Interceptor

LEGEND

RechargeFacility

WaterTreatment  Plant

Reservoir

Booster  Station

WastewaterTreatment

Plant

Recharge  Facility

G

CoalGenerating  Station

G

Solar  Farm

Transformer

Substation

Substation

Substation

Municipal  User

Non-‐Potable  Water  Transmission  Line

Electric  Distribution  Line

Pump

Aquifer

IndustrialUser

Booster  Station

Agricultural  User

ARVIN-FEW SD

ARVIN-FEW SD Structure Water Sources(Surface Water,

Groundwater, and Effluent)

Demand Projections(Agricultural, Industrial,

Municipal, and Environmental)

Existing Infrastructure& Capacities

Crop Pattern & Demand

Energy Demand ARVIN-SD

Water/Energy/AgricultureManagement and

InfrastructureAlternatives

Normal ThreatsWater Allocation

System Security Measures

Energy Production

Food Production

Population Growth Scenarios in AZ

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Pop

ulat

ion

in M

illio

n

Year

Low Medium High

City: Normalized PopulationPOP_2050 / POP_2010

0.55

0.55 - 1.0

1.0 - 2.0

2.0 - 4.0

4.0 - 6.0

6.0 - 8.0

8.0 - 10

10 - 12

County: Normalized PopulationPOP2050 / POP2015

0.8

0.80 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.6

1.6 - 1.8

1.8 - 2.0

2.0 - 2.2

2.2 - 2.4

2.4 - 2.6

City: Normalized PopulationPOP_2050 / POP_2010

0.55

0.55 - 1.0

1.0 - 2.0

2.0 - 4.0

4.0 - 6.0

6.0 - 8.0

8.0 - 10

10 - 12

County: Normalized PopulationPOP2050 / POP2015

0.8

0.80 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.6

1.6 - 1.8

1.8 - 2.0

2.0 - 2.2

2.2 - 2.4

2.4 - 2.6

City: Normalized PopulationPOP_2050 / POP_2010

0.55

0.55 - 1.0

1.0 - 2.0

2.0 - 4.0

4.0 - 6.0

6.0 - 8.0

8.0 - 10

10 - 12

County: Normalized PopulationPOP2050 / POP2015

0.8

0.80 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.6

1.6 - 1.8

1.8 - 2.0

2.0 - 2.2

2.2 - 2.4

2.4 - 2.6

Historical Crop Yield

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Alfalfa Durum Wheat Head Lettuce Upland Cotton

% C

hang

e in

Cro

p Yi

eld

with

Res

pect

to 1

999

Yiel

d

ARVIN-FEW Structure Water Sources(Surface Water,

Groundwater, and Effluent)

Demand Projections(Agricultural, Industrial,

Municipal, and Environmental)

Existing Infrastructure& Capacities

Crop Pattern & Demand

Energy Demand ARVIN-SD

Water/Energy/AgricultureManagement and

InfrastructureAlternatives

Normal ThreatsWater Allocation

System Security Measures

Energy Production

Food Production

RDF

Treatment  Plant

Reservoir

Well  Field Surface  Water

Non-‐Potable  Transmission  line

Potable  Transmission  line

Interceptor

LEGEND

Booster  Station

Potable  User

Non-‐potable  User

LM LMWTP

RFP

AVCGC

RDFPCGC

FWF

Municipal Water Supply System

Electric Power Distribution Network Navajo

Morenkopi

CedarMountainSeligman

Round Valley

Bagdad

WillowLake

Dugas

Yavapai

Verde

Coconino

YoungCanyon

Flagstaff(WAPA)

Cholla

SugarloafCoronado

Valley Farms

CoolidgeSundance

Pinal Center

San Manuel

Adams

Mural

SaguaroTat Momoli

DesertBasin

CircleJunction

GilaBend

Gila River/Panda

RuddLiberty

DelaneySun Valley

Morgan Gavilan Peak

Pinnacle Peak

Preacher Canyon

WestWing

Four Corners

Springerville

Knox

Kyerene

Silverking

Mazatzal

Griffith

DavisPeacock

N. Havasu

Parker

Pinal West

South Tucson

Vail

Greenlee

Hidalgo

Santa Rosa

Jocoba

To Mead and Marketplace

To Eldorado

To Crystal

500 kV Lines

345 kV Lines

230 kV Lines

115 kV LinesSonoita

Round Valley

Palo Verde

Solana

Hoodoo Wash

North GilaCasa GrandeMilligan

Red Hwak

Hassayampa

To Colorado River

Tortolita

Valencia

KantorNogales Tap

To Imperial Valley

Transmission Lines

§ Electricity utilities § Power plants

•  Coal •  Gas •  Nuclear •  Hydroelectric

§ Transmission lines § Distribution lines § Substations

Water Sources(Surface Water,

Groundwater, and Effluent)

Demand Projections(Agricultural, Industrial,

Municipal, and Environmental)

Existing Infrastructure& Capacities

Crop Pattern & Demand

Energy Demand ARVIN-SD

Water/Energy/AgricultureManagement and

InfrastructureAlternatives

Normal ThreatsWater Allocation

System Security Measures

Energy Production

Food Production

ARVIN-FEW Structure

Water Sources(Surface Water,

Groundwater, and Effluent)

Demand Projections(Agricultural, Industrial,

Municipal, and Environmental)

Existing Infrastructure& Capacities

Crop Pattern & Demand

Energy Demand ARVIN-SD

Water/Energy/AgricultureManagement and

InfrastructureAlternatives

Normal ThreatsWater Allocation

System Security Measures

Energy Production

Food Production

ARVIN-FEW Structure

• Water conservation

- Rainwater harvesting

- Graywater reuse

- Demand reduction

• Reclaimed water reuse

• New infrastructure

• In-state water transfers

• Supply importation

• Renewable energy

• Low water cooling

• Increasing efficiency

• Development of new

transportation system  

• Alternative crop pattern

• Efficient irrigation

system

• Water market

• Controlled environment

agriculture  

Potential Management Alternatives

Water/Energy/AgricultureManagement and

InfrastructureAlternatives

Acute, Chronic, and Catastrophic Threats

System Dynamics

ARVIN

ARVIN-FEW Structure

Crop Production

Environmental Condition

System Sustainability

Energy Production

Water Sources(Surface Water,

Groundwater, and Effluent)

Demand Projections(Agricultural, Industrial,

Municipal, and Environmental)

Existing Infrastructure& Capacities

Crop Pattern & Demand

Energy Demand

Optimization

ARVIN-FEW

Arizona Water Budget (2015-2060) S

W: 2

22.6

7 M

AF

GW

: 173

.74

MA

F

EFF

: 10.

62 M

AF

AG

: 233

.94

MA

F M

UN

: 142

.09

MA

F

Power Plant: 15.44 MAF Other: 5.66 MAF

Mining: 9.92 MAF

Dis

char

ge: 1

88.0

4 M

AF

Con

sum

ed o

r Eva

pora

ted:

21

8.99

MA

F G

W R

echa

rge:

14

8.04

MA

F E

nv.

Dem

and

Case Study 1: Central Plateau PA

Year 2010 2060

Population 66,470 135,850

Water Demand

(AFY)

MU 8,414 17,196

IND 1,410 1,410

Surface Water (AFY) 2,242

Ground Water (AFY) 8,800 (safe-yield)

Note MU : Municipal IND: Industrial AG : Agricultural

 

Huizar et al. (In Review)

𝑿↓𝒎𝒊𝒏   

𝑿↓𝒕−𝟏   

𝑺↓𝒊,𝒕 = ( 𝑿↓𝒕−𝟏 − 𝑿↓𝒎𝒊𝒏 )+ 𝑹↓𝒕 /𝑾↓𝒕    

𝑹↓𝒕    𝑾↓𝒕   

§ Safe yield goal → pump usage=recharge credit → 𝑆↓𝑖,𝑡 ≥1

Sustainability Indicator

𝑾↓𝒕   

Sustainability of the Central Plateau

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Sust

aina

bilit

y

2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Potential Water Conservation Options

§  Rainwater harvesting: 2,079 ft2 roof size and 10, 30, and 50% adoption rates

Rainwater Harvesting

2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Sust

aina

bilit

y

§  Water reuse: 10% increase in reclaimed water use

Water Reuse

2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Sust

aina

bilit

y

Demand Reduction

§  Demand reduction: 10% decrease in total demand

2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Sust

aina

bilit

y

§  Rainwater harvesting: 2,079 ft2 roof size and 10% adoption rates §  Water reuse: 10% increase in reclaimed water use §  Demand reduction: 10% decrease

All Alternatives

2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Sust

aina

bilit

y

All alternatives

Potential Instate Water Importation

Flagstaff

WNPP 8,000 AFY

RGRP 8,000 AFY

Potential Water Conservation Options

Base Condition

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sus

tain

abili

ty

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Instate Water Importation RGRP

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sus

tain

abili

ty

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Instate Water Importation RGRP+WNPP

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sus

tain

abili

ty

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Inter-Planning Area Impacts: Sustainability of the Eastern Plateau

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Sus

tain

abili

ty

Base

EP

Inter-Planning Area Impacts: Sustainability of the Eastern Plateau

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Sus

tain

abili

ty

Base RGRP

EP

Case Study 2: Navajo/Hopi PA §  Municipal water demand §  Agricultural water demand §  Industrial water demand

•  Golf course •  Navajo generating station •  Mines (rock production)

§  Electricity generation §  Greenhouse gas emission

due to electricity generation

Electricity Distribution of NGS Production N

GS

: 870

,395

GW

h

US

BO

R

SR

P A

PS

N

V

Ene

rgy

TEP

211,506 GWh

121,855 GWh

65,280 GWh

98,355 GWh

373,399 GWh

227,016 GWh

196,747 GWh

80,716 GWh

56,054 GWh

154,000 AF

Res

iden

tial

Com

mer

cial

Lo

ss

Indu

stria

l Vi

rtual

W

ater

Tucson AMA Crop Patterns and Acres

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Acr

eage

Durum Wheat Alfalfa Barley

Sorghum Corn Peacans

Oat Winter Wheat

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Summary

§  Imbalance in future supply and demand is inevitable.

§ Arizona statewide management tool is under development to supply quantitative decision making support and bridge the gap between water supply and demand.

§ ARVIN-FEW system dynamics model is used to investigate the impact of potential alternatives on system sustainability.