argus fmb sulphur · 10/4/2012  · argus fmb sulphur issue 12-40 | thursday 4 october 2012 will...

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Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Argus FMB Sulphur Formerly FMB Weekly Sulphur Report Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 PRICE GUIDE MARKET SUMMARY First Q4 contract prices finalized in Brazil and Europe - reductions of +/- $10/t agreed This week ADNOC acknowledged the weaker market sentiment by reducing the October OSP by $5/t to $185/t fob Ruwais, and in contract negotiations Middle East producer price ideas for Q4 were tabled in the $180- 190/t fob range. Based on recent prices seen in China, AG contract holders were pressing for prices $10/t below these levels. Buyers were arguing that demand from the phosphate fertilizer sector remained poor and that the end of holiday period in China would not spark the market back to life. The Chinese have successfully pushed prices down to $190-195/t cfr in last business done, with molten parcels even lower. Suppliers, however, are not convinced China will sleep for the entire quarter and they point also to lower supply availability in Q4, especially in Russia. The first Q4 contracts have indeed now been agreed in Brazil with FSU tonnage finalized with major buyer Vale in the low-$200/s/t cfr, and with contracts going through with US suppliers in the range $170-175/t fob US Gulf. An Argus Media company View the methodology used to assess sulphur prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]. Argus FMB Sulphur FMB sulphur & sulphuric acid price guide ($/t) Contract Spot Sulphur dry bulk Fob Vancouver 2H 2012 185-200 175-185 Fob Vancouver Q3-2012 185-210 175-185 Fob Middle East* 2H 2012 175-180 170-180 Fob Middle East* Q3-2012 185-203 170-180 Fob Adnoc posted Oct 2012 185 Fob Iran 170-180 Fob Black Sea (lump-gran) Q3-2012 170-185 145-175 Fob US Gulf Q3-2012 180-185 Fob Caribbean (under 15 k) 160-170 Cfr Brazil Q3-2012 205-215 205-210 Cfr Med (under 10 k) 2H 2012 100-130 125-135 Cfr N Africa (all sizes) 2H 2012 210 170-190 Cfr N Africa (all sizes) Q3-2012 185-210 170-190 Cfr India 210-215 Cfr China Q3-2012 190-200 190-200 *excluding Iran Sulphur - molten Cfr Tampa/C Fla (l.t.) Q3-2012 170 Cfr Benelux (loc refs) Q3-2012 208-220 Cpt NW Europe Q3-2012 240-260 Sulphuric acid Cfr NW Eur (smelters), €/t 2H 2012 70-80 Cfr NW Eur (smelters), €/t Q4-2012 70-80 Cfr Brazil 100***-105*** Cpt = ‘carriage paid to’ for sulphur delivered by Roadtankcar *** indicative price 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 July fob Vancouver fob Middle East cfr China Focus on contract negs for Q4; first settlements confirmed in Brazil and Europe. SULPHUR SPOT PRICE COMPARISON ($/PT FOB BULK)

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Page 1: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd

Argus FMB SulphurFormerly FMB Weekly Sulphur Report

Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

price guideMArKeT SuMMArY

First Q4 contract prices finalized in Brazil and Europe - reductions of +/- $10/t agreed

This week ADNOC acknowledged the weaker market sentiment by reducing the October OSP by $5/t to $185/t fob Ruwais, and in contract negotiations Middle East producer price ideas for Q4 were tabled in the $180-190/t fob range. Based on recent prices seen in China, AG contract holders were pressing for prices $10/t below these levels. Buyers were arguing that demand from the phosphate fertilizer sector remained poor and that the end of holiday period in China would not spark the market back to life. The Chinese have successfully pushed prices down to $190-195/t cfr in last business done, with molten parcels even lower.

Suppliers, however, are not convinced China will sleep for the entire quarter and they point also to lower supply availability in Q4, especially in Russia.

The first Q4 contracts have indeed now been agreed in Brazil with FSU tonnage finalized with major buyer Vale in the low-$200/s/t cfr, and with contracts going through with US suppliers in the range $170-175/t fob US Gulf.

An Argus Media companyView the methodology used to assess sulphur prices at

www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected].

Argus FMB Sulphur

FMB sulphur & sulphuric acid price guide ($/t)

contract Spot

Sulphur dry bulk

Fob Vancouver 2H 2012 185-200 175-185

Fob Vancouver Q3-2012 185-210 175-185

Fob Middle East* 2H 2012 175-180 170-180

Fob Middle East* Q3-2012 185-203 170-180

Fob Adnoc posted Oct 2012 185

Fob Iran 170-180

Fob Black Sea (lump-gran) Q3-2012 170-185 145-175

Fob US Gulf Q3-2012 180-185

Fob Caribbean (under 15 k) 160-170

Cfr Brazil Q3-2012 205-215 205-210

Cfr Med (under 10 k) 2H 2012 100-130 125-135

Cfr N Africa (all sizes) 2H 2012 210 170-190

Cfr N Africa (all sizes) Q3-2012 185-210 170-190

Cfr India 210-215

Cfr China Q3-2012 190-200 190-200

*excluding Iran

Sulphur - molten

Cfr Tampa/C Fla (l.t.) Q3-2012 170

Cfr Benelux (loc refs) Q3-2012 208-220

Cpt NW Europe Q3-2012 240-260

Sulphuric acid

Cfr NW Eur (smelters), €/t 2H 2012 70-80

Cfr NW Eur (smelters), €/t Q4-2012 70-80

Cfr Brazil 100***-105***

Cpt = ‘carriage paid to’ for sulphur delivered by Roadtankcar

*** indicative price

020406080

100120140160180200220240260

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 July

fob Vancouver fob Middle East cfr China

Focus on contract negs for Q4; first settlements confirmed in Brazil and Europe.

Sulphur SpoT price coMpAriSon ($/pt fob bulk)

Page 2: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 2 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

Leading consumer OCP/Morocco is looking for larger price reductions for Q4 tabling $170/t cfr as a target price, with all suppliers rejecting this.

In Europe, the first molten contracts for Q4 have been agreed with reductions of around $10/t finalized, pushing prices down to $195-200/t cfr for large volume buyers.

This week’s highlights:

▪ China market quiet due to National Holiday; molten sulphur heard done at $185/t cfr, big increase in Fangcheng inventory

▪ Focus on Q4 price negotiations, price reductions in the pipeline in all markets

▪ Middle East producer ideas for Q4 still at $180-190/t fob level, not convinced China will sleep for entire quarter – allocation holders wanting $10/t lower ▪ ADNOC/UAE reduces October OSP by $5/t to $185/t fob

▪ First Q4 contracts agreed in European molten market reduced down to $195-200/t cfr

▪ FSU Q4 contract tonnages understood finalized in Brazil in very low-$200s/t cfr, US suppliers agree at $170-175/t fob

▪ New FACT tender held in India; Reliance cuts domestic prices

ASiA

ChinaThe national holidays kept the market quiet this week.

Market sentiment remains poor with prices put at $190-195/t cfr for solid, and even lower for molten parcels. One 2,500t molten parcel has been sold at $185/t cfr.

The three successive price cuts applied by Sinopec in September totalled RMB 190-200/t and this has impacted on port retail prices. Some small sales have been made from the Nantong stockpile at sub-RMB1400/t in latest business. It is now considered that the last Taiwan sale at just over $180/t fob Mailiao to China Oil equates to low-mid $190s/t cfr and is considered the high end of the market now.

All the major phosphate fertilizer producers in the south have bought in sufficient quantity for 30-45 day consumption and have now all withdrawn and are awaiting the outcome of Q4 contract negotiations. After the end of the autumn fertilizer application season, major producers are planning to have 2-3 week turnarounds. How much fertilizer is left in stock after the autumn season will determine how quickly the producers start to raise operating rates for the winter buffer storage.

Middle East producers are currently proposing $180-190/t fob for Q4 contract prices with allocation holders servicing China, with producers not convinced the weakness in China

$175-208/t fob Vancouver

$170/lt cfr Tampa (molten)

$200-210/t cfr Santos

$208-220/t cfr Antwerp (molten)

$180-210/t cfr Jorf Lasfar

$165-185/t fob Jubail, Ruwais

$210-215 cfrParadeep, Chennai

$190-200/t cfr Fangcheng, Nantong

$170-185/t fob Illychevsk,

Kavkaz

SnApShoT - priCES/nETBACkS grAn/MolTEn

Page 3: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 3 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr in comparison with the current market at $190-200/t cfr.

A strong level of recent AG imports into Fangcheng has pushed up inventory into the leading southern port to 470,000t, and this has contributed to overall stock levels rising to 1.45 million t. Inventory in Nantong actually came down again.

TaiwanIt is understood China Oil was the trader awarded in last week’s Formosa sales tender for 15,000t was China Oil. The price was believed just over $180/t fob for 26-30 October loading. Based on freights to Nantong at around $13-14/t, this equates to low-mid $190s/t cfr China.

philippinesOxbow’s sale to Philphos reported last week comprised 33,000t and was shipped from Ruwais, UAE on the MV Rook. The vessel sailed on 19 September.

MalaysiaPress Release: Jacobs Engineering Group Inc announced this week it has received a contract from PETRONAS, the state-owned oil company of Malaysia, to develop a basic engineering package for three sulfur recovery units (SRUs). Officials did not disclose the contract value, however noted the basic engineering services are being provided from Jacobs’ Leiden office in The Netherlands. Jacobs is licensing its proprietary SUPERCLAUS® technology to PETRONAS for the SRU project. Jacobs introduced the SUPERCLAUS technology in 1985; there are now over 200 licensed units in operation worldwide.

indiaFACT closed a new sulphur tender for 20,000t on 4 October for arrival in Cochin 23-26 October. The buyer is expecting to secure a much lower price than last business done

with Swiss at $217.99/t cfr for late September arrival, and shipped from Red Sea, Saudi on the MV Hunter K.

Reliance cut their domestic sulphur prices effective 1st October. The Basic All India price was reduced by Rs 153/t (around $3/t) to Rs 12,180/t ex-Jamnagar. Large volume discounts are also made of up to Rs 900/t (up to $17/t) to regular buyers.

Suppliers are hoping the approaching sugar season will provide a stimulus to the market, but major Indian buyers are reducing their price ideas based on the weakening price levels recently achieved in China.

Swiss Singapore has shipped 33,000t of UAE sulphur to Vizag to cover sales made to MMTC and Andhra Sugars and others. The MV Haul Sahin sailed from Ruwais on 3 October.

Swiss also has three shipments totalling 105,000t arriving in Paradeep 4-10 October:

MV Azure Sky - 41,000t for PPL eta 4 Oct ex-Bahrain/Saudi

MV Aetolic - 31,500t for IFFCO eta 5 Oct ex-Qatar

MV Jasmin - 34,700t for IFFCO eta 10 Oct ex-Iran

Recent spot sales/purchases in India for August/September: ▪ Reliance awarded 25,000t to Havi believed at $187/t fob Sikka for late October shipment.

▪ CIL finalized 10,000 t with Sun International for 2H Sept shipment to Vizag. Price rumoured around $205/t cfr.

▪ MMTC/SAIL finalized 9,000 t with Swiss at $215.30/t cfr for prompt 2H Sept shipment

▪ PPL/Paradeep purchased 35,000t from Swiss Singapore at $212-213/t cfr for September shipment

▪ FACT finalized 25,000t with Swiss Singapore at $217.99/t cfr 180 days for arrival in Cochin 17-20 September

▪ Reliance sold 27,000t to Swiss Singapore at $183-184/t fob Sikka for loading 15-21 September – shipped to Jordan

Middle eAST

There has been little progress on Q4 contracts. Middle East producers continue to table price ideas to contract holders in the range $180-190/t fob. Based on recent price weakness in China allocation holders are looking for prices $10/t below this range.

Main Chinese port inventories (’000 t)

2 oct 22 May

Qingdao 170 275

Zhenjiang 175 300

Zhanjiang 140 220

Fangcheng 470 500

Nantong 360 600

Tianjin - 10

Beihai 110 100

Others 25 45

Total 1,450 2,050

Page 4: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 4 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

uAeIn acknowledging the recent weaker market sentiment, ADNOC dropped the October OSP by $5/t to $185/t fob Ruwais.

In Ruwais is the MV Abual Abyad is loading 33,000t of ADNOC sulphur for contract customer OCP/Morocco. The ship was due to sail out on 4 October.

Swiss Singapore shipped 33,000t from Ruwais to Vizag, India to cover sales made to MMTC and Andhra Sugars and others. The MV Haul Sahin sailed from Ruwais on 3 October.

Prior to this Oxbow shipped 33,000t to Philphos/Philippines. The MV Rook sailed from Ruwais on 19 September.

QatarTasweeq’s direct contract customer OCP/Morocco has just loaded and shipped 30,000t from Ras Laffan to Morocco on the MV Glorious Saiki. The vessel sailed 1st October.

Swiss Singapore has shipped 31,500t from Qatar to Paradeep for contract customer IFFCO/Paradeep. The vessel MV Aetolic sailed from Ras Laffan on 24 September and is scheduled to arrive in Paradeep on 5 October.

Saudi ArabiaIn Jubail, Oxbow has just loaded 38,500t on the MV Atlantic Pride for shipment to China. The ship sailed on 1st October.

Prior to this China Oil loaded and shipped 44,000t to China on the MV ICS Spirit. The vessel sailed on 28 September.

Aramco Trading’s direct customer OCP/Morocco loaded and shipped 37,000t from Jubail to Morocco. The vessel MV Nirmal Gautum sailed on 24 September.

Swiss Singapore’s MV Azure Sky was scheduled to arrive in Paradeep on 4 October with 41,000t loaded in Jubail and Bahrain. The tonnage was sold to PPL.

kuwaitThe two spot sales made to traders last month by KPC have both now been shipped to China:

On 25 September Transfert’s MV Royal Ruby shipped 26,600t from Shuaiba to China.

On 18 September Marubeni’s MV Trans Friendship II sailed from Shuaiba with 27,000t for China.

MED/AFriCA

Morocco Due to low consumption and high stocks OCP has tabled a target price for Q4 shipments to suppliers at $170/t cfr, a reduction of around $30/t over Q3. The powerful sulphur buyer has cut sulphur consumption through a rolling turnaround at Jorf Lasfar. Suppliers have rejected this target as not realistic and most observers expect OCP’s sulphur costs for Q4 will likely be finalized closer to $185-190/t cfr.

norTh WeST europe

BeneluxQ4 negotiations have commenced on molten contract deliveries and it has been confirmed that the first agreements have now been finalized. One buyer in the caprolactam business has settled with two suppliers with price reductions of $10-12/t taking the price range down to $195-199/t cfr range.

Buyers have been successfully arguing the market in Europe is softer with stocks at high levels and demand weakening, and have pointed to recent low price spot granular sale to North Africa from Germany. Global demand for chemical applications such as caprolactam, produced in Europe has been weakening recently. Countering this argument, the main refiners have been pointing out that the refinery turnaround season has arrived and stock levels were actually coming down. Suppliers had initially tabled reductions of $7-8/t.

eAST europe

russia/kazakhstanContract negotiations have now been completed on Q4 shipments. Vale has successfully brought down prices from close to $210/t cfr in Q3 to just over $200/t cfr. Four

165

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225 215 220 220 220

205

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195 200 210 215

205

190 190 185

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J-11 F M A M J J A S O N D J-12 F M A M J J A S O

2011/2012

ADNOC cuts October OSP by $5/t

Adnoc officiAl Selling price ($/pt fob ruwais)

Page 5: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 5 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

Russian cargoes have been agreed for Q4 shipments and it is understood that Trammo has finalized TCO/Kazakh granular tonnage at the same price level.

The MV Anton Topic is due to arrive in Santos for Vale on 12 October with 30,000t of Russian sulphur loaded in Ust Luga.

Trammo is also shipping a granular cargo to Brazil from Ust Luga. The MV ACS Diamond is being shipped to Galvani and is due in Santos on 13 October.

Following this, Trammo will ship a cargo of 33,000t of TCO granular from Illychevsk to Copebras on the MV Yan Dang Hai. The ship is due to arrive in Santos on 17 October.

Q4 contract negotiations between Russian/Kazakh suppliers with OCP/Morocco are expected to take some time to resolve. OCP has proposed a Q4 price of $170/t cfr, around $30/t below Q3. This contrasts with initial supplier ideas of a $5/t reduction, reflecting an expected tightness in supply in Q4. Most observers predict an eventual Q4 settlement in North Africa of around $185-190/t cfr for FSU supplies.

FMB Spot Sales Selection – 4 october 2012

product origin Seller Buyer destn ‘000t $/t bulk Shipmt

Sulphur Germany solvadis GCT Tunisia 25 est 185-190 cfr End SeptTaiwan Formosa Chinese trader China 15 ar 180-182 fob 2H Oct

UAE Oxbow Philphos Philippines 30 est low 200s cfr End SeptItaly ExxonMobil Trammo - 6 157 fob Oct

India Reliance Havi China 25 187 fob 2H OctQatar Tasweeq Swiss India 30 175 fob End SeptTaiwan Formosa Local trader China 15 ar 190 fob 1H Oct

Kuwait Sun CIL India 10 ar 205 cfr Sep/OctFSU Trammo Copebras Brazil 25 205-210 cfr OctSpain Interacid Isusa Uruguay 9 est 215-220 Sept

UAE Swiss MMTC/SAIl India 9 215.30 cfr SeptSaudi/Bahrain Swiss PPL India 35 212-213 cfr SeptSaudi (Red Sea) Swiss FACT India 25 217.99 cfr 180d Sept

Iran KHPC Trader China 20 ar 185 fob SeptIran IGCC Trader China 30 183.25 fob SeptPoland solvadis Akzo Argentina 15 215-220 cfr Sept

California Oxbow Various China 60 205-207 cfr SeptKuwait KPC Trader China 25 195 fob Sept

Taiwan Formosa Chinese trader China 15 192 fob SeptIndia Reliance Swiss - 27 183-184 fob SeptUAE Transfert CIL India 24 211 cfr Sept

Greece Oxbow Galvani Brazil 6 ar 210 cfr SeptItaly Trammo Akzo Argentina 10 ar 215 cfr SeptAG Traders End-users South China various 206-213 cfr Sept

Italy Chemtrade Meranol Argentina 6 215-220 cfr SeptCalifornia HJ Baker Fertinal Mexico 50 mid-170s fob Oct

Sulphuric Acid Europe - - US Gulf 10 95 cfr Sept

China Two Lions - Australia 10 60s fob Sept

China Two Lions - Vietnam 5 60s fob Aug

Europe Aurubis Timac Brazil 15 101-105 cfr Oct

Italy Prai OCP Morocco 2 x 3-4 high-50s cfr Sept

Japan Trader P Gresik Indonesia 10 65-70 cfr Sept/Oct

Korea n.a. P Gresik Indonesia 20 65-70 cfr Sept/Oct

TBC Trader PT Gresik Indonesia 20 65-70 Oct

Page 6: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

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Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

norTh AMericA

uSAIt is still too early for Q4 settlements on molten shipments into Tampa, although under the current market climate the general consensus is that prices are likely to be adjusted down $5-10/lt from the current Q3 level of $160/lt cfr.

It has been confirmed that US suppliers have started to finalize Q4 contract shipments in Brazil in the range $170-175/t fob US Gulf. With freights around $30/t, this equates close to $200/t cfr.

Shell is shipping a cargo of 35,000t from Beaumont to Vale on the MV Takeshio. The ship is due to arrive in Santos on 7 October.

After this shipment, Valero is scheduled to load another Beaumont cargo to Brazil. The MV Tensei Maru is due in Santos with 40,000t on 17 October.

Oxbow has shipped the MV Unison Power from the US Gulf to Brazil for Galvani and Copebras. The cargo of 37,000t arrived in Santos on 3 October.

HJ Baker’s MV Navios Herakles is expected to arrive in Santos with 40,000t for Vale on 25 October from California.

Oxbow is looking to load 40-50,000t in Stockton and Long Beach destination Santos, Brazil lay can10-19 October.

CanadaThis week Syncrude Canada announced it will keep its oilsands mining operations near Fort McMurray going after deciding last year to shelve a 250,000-barrel-per-day expansion. The “MLX Project” is designed to extend the life of the Mildred Lake mine by about 10 years by opening two new mining areas adjacent to the current mine and continuing to use existing ore crushing and extraction facilities. Syncrude will make regulatory applications in 2014 and construction would begin sometime in the next decade, according to an announcement from Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., the largest owner with a 37 per cent stake. MLX fills in for an ambitious plan announced in February 2010 that called for construction to begin this year on a 100,000-bpd mining phase at the new Aurora South mine, leading to total bitumen production capacity jumping from 350,000 bpd now to 600,000 bpd by 2020. “Syncrude benefits from abundant high-quality resources across its leases, and this results in flexibility to optimize timing and scope of development through an ongoing review process,” said Marcel Coutu, president and chief executive of Canadian Oil Sands.

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Page 7: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 7 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

Analysts estimated the expansion plan would cost $15 billion.

Syncrude is being operated by 25 per cent owner Imperial Oil Ltd. and its U.S. parent, ExxonMobil Corp. Those companies will soon be starting production at the $10.9-billion, 110,000-bpd Kearl oilsands mine, which could expand to 345,000 bpd by 2020. Another partner, Suncor Energy Inc., is in a partnership with French giant Total S.A. to build the 190,000-bpd Fort Hills mine and 200,000-bpd Voyageur upgrader, plus the 200,000-bpd Joslyn North mine — although none of the projects have been formally sanctioned. Syncrude’s other partners are Mocal Energy Ltd., Murphy Oil Co. Ltd., Nexen Inc. and Sinopec.

SouTh AMericA

Brazil As reported above, leading buyer Vale’s Q4 contracts with regular suppliers offering Russian Kazakh and US sulphur shipments are now going through.

It is understood prices for FSU shipments (both Russian and Kazakh) have been finalized at just over $200/t cfr compared with around $210/t cfr in Q3. Four cargoes of Russian were concluded.

Contract shipments from US suppliers are also now being finalized at $170-175/t fob US Gulf. With freights for US Gulf to Santos at close to $30/t, these volumes also equate at close to $200/t cfr. Regarding the Copebras spot enquiry for 25,000 t for December arrival into Santos, offers were made from

various sources including Poland and the AG in the range $205-215/t cfr. With no great pressure to finalize, and the market looking weak, Copebras decided to hold back on making an award.

See accompanying table showing the latest line up of vessels due to arrive in Santos. These comprise shipments from Russia and Kazakhstan via Black Sea and Baltic, USA via US Gulf and California. Nothing from the Middle East is in the schedule.

Sulphuric Acid

MArKeT SuMMArY

Softer prices on recent Asian export business

The sulphuric acid market is slow moving with recent Asian export spot business concluded at lower levels. It has emerged that in September LS Nikko sold a 40,000t spot cargo, followed by Korea Zinc’s decision to sell 100,000t of smelter acid under a tender that closed last week. Both sales were for 2013 delivery, demonstrating the South Korean producers’ risk-spreading approach and indicating that further tenders from the two producers can be anticipated.

The biggest question in the market remains how much will Chile import in 2013. Many Chilean and European market players will gather in London at an industry event in two weeks’ time. Market direction will become clearer by then, perhaps prompting more spot business to take place.

Sulphur Vessel Arrivals Santos Sept/oct 2012

Vessel/Vol `000t Supplier origin receiver eTA eTc

Platon/38,5 Transammonia Ust Luga, Baltic Vale 15 Sep 24 Sep

UBC Longkou/38,5 Russian supplier Kafkaz, B Sea Vale 18 Sep 1 Oct

Inventana/36 Oxbow US Gulf Copebras 28 Aug 4 Oct

Hemus/23 Oxbow D’dsonville, USG Galvani, Elekeiroz 06 Sept 11 Oct

Takeshio/35 Shell Beaumont, USG Vale 7 Oct 17 Oct

Anton Topic/30 Russian supplier Ust Luga, Baltic Vale 12 Oct 14 Oct

Tensei Maru/40 Valero Beaumont, USG - 17 Oct 31 Oct

Navios Herakles/40 HJ Baker Stockton/LB, Cal Vale 25 Oct 3 Nov

ACS Diamond/22,5 Trammo Ust Luga, Baltic Galvani 13 Oct 4 Nov

Yan Dang Hai/33 Trammo Illychevsk, B Sea Copebras 17 Oct 7 Nov

Page 8: Argus FMB Sulphur · 10/4/2012  · Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012 will endure through the entire quarter. These price ideas equate to well over $200/t cfr

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 8 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

On the metals front, prices are in general holding with minor fluctuations on the LME. Copper was settled at $8,276/t on 4 October in cash, up around 2% from the week before. Zinc was down slightly by 0.6% to $2,056/t. Nickel prices showed a 3.85% increase to $18,620/t.

South korea It has emerged that LS Nikko sold 40,000t of spot smelter acid back in September, for 2013 delivery. Destinations were restricted to Asia and Australia, and an unnamed trader reportedly bought the cargo at above $40/t fob South Korea.

The Korea Zinc sales tender that closed last week was for 100,000t for 2013 delivery. It is understood that the awarded price was lower than expected, rumoured to be below $40/t fob. Market players comment that this could be due to cargo destinations and might not be down to poorer market fundamentals.

The sales tenders by the two South Korean producers are part of hedging strategy, and also an opportunity for the producers to secure a price ahead of an anticipated drop

in prices in 2013 based on the assumption that key market Chile will be importing less.

JapanIt has emerged that around 20,000t of smelter acid were sold two weeks ago to a trader, reportedly in the low-$40s/t fob, for November/December shipment. The destination is speculated to be either Chile or Australia.

Japanese suppliers are also waiting for further clarity from the Chilean market for 2013 contract pricing.

One Japanese acid supplier says it is unlikely to supply to China under contracts for Q4, due to the poor netbacks because buyer are bidding at $45/t cfr China. More than one Japanese producer have indicated $40/t fob Japan to be the floor price for Q4 shipments to China.

indiaFACT closed an import tender on 3 October for 9,000t of sulphuric acid for October-November shipment. There are unconfirmed reports that Sterlite and Hindalco made the only two offers. FACT last entered the spot market for 9,000t of acid back in June but did not make any purchases.

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2013 Argus FMB Africa Fertilizer Conference and Exhibtion

13-15 March, Dakar, Senegal

india: Sulphuric acid arrivals in September/octoberSupplier/Buyer

Vessel Tonnes load port dis port Arrival

Sterlite/IF-FCO

Global Challenge

20,000 Tuticorin Paradeep 05-Sep

Interacid/ IFFCO

Sky Dream 14,867 Japan Paradeep 09-Sep

Interacid/CIL

Sky Dream 4,070 Japan Vizag 11-Sep

Sterlite/Quantum

Rotterdam 20,000 Tuticorin Gresik 12-Sep

Hindalco/ IFFCO

Ivy Galaxy 10,000 Dahej Paradeep 15-Sep

Hindalco/ IFFCO

Fairfield 19,500 Dahej Paradeep 24-Sep

Sterlite/IF-FCO

Bum Chin 18,000 Tuticorin Paradeep 26-Sep

Hindalco/IFFCO

Fairfield 19,500 Dahej Paradeep 5-Oct

Mitsui/ CIL

Stolt Sakura 3,000 Japan Vizag 10-Oct

Sterlite/PPLHighbury

Park9,661 Tuticorin Paradeep 12-Oct

Mitsui/CIL Stolt Sakura 7,000 Japam Kakinada 12-Oct

Mitsubishi/IFFCO

Southern Hawk

13,500 Japan Paradeep 30-Oct

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Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 9 of 11

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

europeThe European caprolactam market is weak, and believed to be limiting domestic demand for both sulphur or sulphuric acid. The supply market is generally described as tight though some sulphuric acid buyers have recently been offered spot tonnes in the $50-60/t fob range.

Contracts in NW Europe for Q4 shipments have mostly been finalised at a rollover of €70-80/t cfr.

ChileBuyers are quiet amid pricing negotiations for 2013 deliveries. Current price indications are put at $105-110/t cfr Chile on slow demand.

In the first eight months of the year, Peru remained the largest exporter to Chile, followed by South Korea and Japan. Chilean imports in August alone reached 315,000t, up 16pc from the same month a year ago. Chile received a total of 2.3m t of acid from global sources January-August, up 20pc from the year-ago period. Most of the acid came from Japan in August, followed by the typical exporters Peru and South Korea.

italyA weak Mediterranean market has limited recent Italian sulphuric acid exports. A supplier with two unsold October export vessels is likely to be moving the tonnes to storage tanks for the domestic market. Prices have been put at $15-20/t fob Med for new spot offers but demand is slow.

TurkmenistanThe government of Turkmenistan is in discussions with two foreign companies on a construction contract for a 500,000/year sulphuric acid plant, according to the state news agency of Turkmenistan. The two companies are Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding from Japan and Renaissance Construction from Turkey. The new sulphuric acid plant will work 333 days a year, and is part of a modernisation plan for the existing Turkmenabat project. The new sulphuric acid unit will replace an existing unit that began operations since 1985, and its commission will help to boost Turkmenabat’s ammonium superphosphate production to 300,000 t/year. Some of the acid production will be for export.

Chile: Sulphuric acid imports (tonnes)

Country Aug 12 Aug 11 ± (pc) J/A 12 J/A 11 ± (pc)

Peru 71,069 96,592 -26.42 717,689 632,519 13.47

South Korea

34,461 106,098 -67.52 497,794 383,054 29.95

Japan 94,167 51,562 82.63 488,023 501,198 -2.63

Spain 22,772 0 0 157,449 31,039 407.26

Mexico 19,735 0 0 147,120 96,779 52.02

India 2 0 0 63,631 0 0

Germany 21,374 10 ∞ 59,942 42 ∞

Canada 18,664 0 0 56,240 0 0

Bulgaria 550 0 0 39,576 0 0

Australia 0 0 0 33,511 18,952 76.82

Poland 0 0 0 18,857 0 0

China 17,594 16,199 8.61 17,807 83,657 -78.71

Other 14,498 55 ∞ 177,846 15,102 ∞

World 314,887 270,517 16.40 2,312,740 1,925,087 20.14

2013 Argus FMB Asia Fertilizer Conference and Exhibtion

24-26 April, Beijing, China

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Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

MoroccoMorocco’s total sulphuric acid imports in the first seven months of 2012 were at 206,000t, on a par with the total a year ago. The top three suppliers were Spain, Belgium and Bulgaria.

SwitzerlandOn 1 October, Xstrata recommended Glencore’s $33bn merger to its shareholders. Xstrata gave its consent to the merger contingent on shareholder agreement to the proposed management retention bonus scheme. There are market expectations that the merger could change market dynamics in the nickel industry, and potentially encourage more mergers. Xstrata previously considered the merger with its major shareholders, including the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Norway, and asset management firm Blackrock.

Dominican republicOn 1 October a court in the La Vega province ruled against the exploitation of Xstrata Nickel Falcondo’ Loma Miranda nickel mine, following an appeal filed by the Padre Rogelio Foundation. The appeal stated that Xstrata does not have the environmental permits to operate in the area. According to local media reports, the court ordered the company to allow the population’s free access to the natural resource. The judge had set a penalty should the company fail to comply with the court order, while Xstrata is expected to appeal the ruling soon, according to the reports. Environmental groups have been against the project citing that it affects the country’s main water reserve.

South AfricaStrikes at Anglo American Platinum’s Rustenburg mining operations continue over miners’ pay, despite disciplinary action targeting employees who have been on strike being in place. Separately, employees at Anglo American Platinum’s Union Mine in Limpopo province refused to go underground for their shifts on 2 October and presented a

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Morocco: Sulphuric acid imports (tonnes)

Country Jul 12 Jul 11 ± (pc) J/Ju 12 J/Ju 11 ± (pc)

Spain 8,305 9,442 -12.04 98,259 84,840 15.82

Belgium 0 4,733 -100 28,472 37,766 - 24.61

Bulgaria 0 0 0 27,375 18,254 49.97

Poland 0 0 0 12,164 0   ∞

Nether-lands

0 0 0 10,567 0 0

Italy 0 0 0 9,484 10,070 -5.82

Norway 0 0 0 8,640 0 0

France 2 1 132.80 110 21 436.26

Germany 0 0 0 4 0 8,467

UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

US 0 0 0 0 0 188

India 0 18,021 -100 0 113,395 -100

Other 11,000 0 0 11,000 13,604 -19.14

World 19,307 32,198 -40.03 206,075 277,948 -25.86

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Fertilizer

Argus FMB Sulphur Issue 12-40 | Thursday 4 October 2012

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memorandum to the mine’s management in demand for a basic wage.

coMpAnY neWS

AustraliaSandfire Resources has successfully produced its first copper concentrate from the DeGrussa Copper-Gold Project in Western Australia. The construction of the DeGrussa concentrator is completed, and commissioning of the mine’s processing plant is underway. The regrind mill is undergoing final wet commissioning before being introduced into the pre-commissioning process. Sandfire currently has at least one sales contract with a metal trading house for the marketing of DeGrussa concentrate, which is expected to be trucked to port Hedland where it is shipped to Asian customers. Full-scale production is expected in the first half of 2013.