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Argus FMB AmmoniaFormerly FMB Weekly Ammonia Report

price guidemarket summary

prices mostly hold steady as market begins to move towards balancePrices have mostly held steady as the market heads towards balance with supply slowly beginning to increase. The only exception is the US, where demand is strong and supply remains tight.

There is no new spot sale to report this week though it has emerged that Nitrochem sold 40,000t to Koch which is due to be loaded on 12 April but this deal is understood to have been concluded a few weeks ago.

On the supply side, Libya’s Lifeco facility is understood to be in the process of restarting its ammonia unit. In the Baltic, Uralchem’s Berezniki plant has also restarted. In the Black Sea, OPZ’s second urea unit is estimated to be running at 70-80pc which should increase its ammonia supply very slightly.

In Egypt, Abu Qir awarded Transammonia its tender for 11,000t at a price around $516/t fob. The cargo is to be loaded 19-23 April.

In India, FACT scrapped its latest 2 x 7,500t tender, which closed 2 April, after receiving offers in the range of $540-555/t cfr. It will likely re-tender.

yuzhny vs middle east fob price

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Middle East fob Yuzhny fob

highlights this week:

▪ Transammonia wins Abu Qir’s 11,000t tender at $516/t fob

▪ Libya’s Lifeco ammonia unit on the verge of restart

▪ Uralchem’s Berezniki plant restarts

▪ India’s FACT scraps latest tender following offers in the range of $540-555/t cfr

Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

View the methodology used to assess ammonia prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at fertilizer@argusmedia.com

ammonia – fob

10 apr 03 apr

Ventspils $/t 510-525 510-525

Yuzhny $/t 500-515* 500-515

North Africa $/t 516-530 510-530

Middle East $/t 468-513 468-513

US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 540-550 530-540

Caribbean $/t 540 540

ammonia – cfr

10 apr 03 apr

NW Eur (duty unpaid) $/t 563-582 563-582

NW Eur (duty paid/d free)† $/t 594-614 594-614

North Africa $/t 540-555 540-555

India $/t 495-553 495-553

East Asia (excl Taiwan) $/t 543-575 543-575

Taiwan $/t 533-588 533-588

Tampa $/t 580 580

US Gulf $/t 585 585

†This price range reflects a duty level set at 5.5pc

*Indicative Price, ** all formula, *** old business, na - Not available

Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Group Page 2 of 6

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

Market outlook: stable

Following several spot sales last week and another round of price hikes, the market this week has been relatively subdued and most prices have held steady.

The exceptions are the US barge price, which has continued to firm on the back of continued strong demand in the US domestic market, and the North Africa price which has been raised slightly to reflect Abu Qir’s latest sale to Transammonia.

The market is becoming more balanced with the return of several plants in the past couple of weeks. Demand in Europe is good, fuelled by additional demand from OCI which has taken its ammonia unit into turnaround in the Netherlands as well as the fertilizer peak season. Asian demand is flat at a weak level but prices are being supported by the firm international market.

The US spring application season is likely to run into May given that the north of the Corn Belt is still awaiting for warmer temperatures before the application season can begin.

Although supply appears to have increased out of Ukraine following several weeks of strong business, there is still an element of caution on the buyer side as ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine keeps the market on edge.

In India, there are question marks over when the Indian DAP producers will return to the market for ammonia. Some Indian DAP buyers have fixed April deliveries suggesting that stocks have been drawn down. This could prompt some DAP producers to begin ramping up production earlier n April but a number of producers are in turnaround and it seems likely that April deliveries will remain slow. Moreover, the price of phosphoric acid has not yet settled. Given the high ammonia prices and potential higher phosphoric acid

price, there are concerns that it could be cheaper for DAP producers to import this kharif season rather than produce locally, which would lessen Indian ammonia consumption.

europe

yuzhnyApril’s line-up is around 290,800t and there is a strong possibility that it will surpass last month’s total of 369,400t given the additional Black Sea supply from the Gorlovka plant and OPZ.

Yara’s Navigator Gusto completed loading on 9 April. The Clipper Mars arrived on 10 April and will load its standard 40,000t parcel for India, after which the Nordic River will load 25,500t for Yara as part of the trader’s 50,000t spot purchase it concluded a few weeks ago. The Andesgas is due to arrive at Yuzhny on 12 April and will represent the first cargo Fertiberia purchases under its new supply agreement with NF Trading. The George N has also joined the line-up and will be bound for Koch in the US.

Following the shutdown of one OPZ urea line last week, its second urea unit is now operating at a reduced rate of 70-80pc, which should marginally increase its ammonia supply. It is estimated that OPZ will have around 70,000t/m

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Yuzhny fob Ventspils fob NWE cfr

yuzhny, ventspils and nWe prices

provisional yuzhny line up for april

vessel ’000t shipper/destination april

Gas Manta 23.4 Nitrochem/Belgium 2

Gas Grouper 23.4 Transammonia/Morocco 2

Cambridge 23.3 Nitrochem/Belgium 2

Navigator Gusto 12 Yara/Italy 9

Clipper Mars 40.0 Nitrochem/India 10

Nordic River 25.5 Yara/Germany and the Netherlands 11

Andesgas 10.0 Fertiberia/Spain 12

Sanko Innovator 23.4 Transammonia 12

Gas Cobia 23.4 Nitrochem 14

George N 40.0 Nitrochem/US 15

Prins Maurits 11.0 B Fertilizer 17

Gas Snapper 23.4 Nitrochem 2H April

Navigator Gusto 12.0 Yara 2H April

Gas Grouper 23.4 Nitrochem End April

Gas Manta 23.4 Nitrochem End April

total 290.8

Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Group Page 3 of 6

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

of ammonia available if its operations continue to run in its current status.

ventspilsUralchem’s Berezniki plant is understood to have returned online. The facility has been down since mid-to-late February.

turkeyOffers of Black Sea tonnes into Turkey are reported to be around $540/t cfr, which would provide a Yuzhny netback of approximately $510/t fob. However, no sale has been confirmed at this level.

middle east & africa

saudi arabiaThere are no fresh sales out of Saudi Arabia this week and Sabic is focused on fulfilling its shipments to its spot and long-term contract customers. The Gas Quantum has been fixed for its spot sale to Mitsui which will load 6,000t while the Jenny N has now been nominated to lift the 40,000t sale to Koch.

libyaThe ammonia unit at the Lifeco facility is understood to be in the process of restarting. There is speculation that the urea unit will stay down but this seems unlikely given that the plant will not have enough storage to stock all the ammonia being produced.

egyptThe OCI-EBIC plant continues to operate at 30-40pc production capacity. The Brussels is expected to load out of Ain Sokhna by the end of next week.

Transammonia has confirmed it has been awarded a tender by Abu Qir for 11,000t at a price around $516/t fob. The cargo has a laycan of 19-23 April.

The Prins Maurits loaded 11,000t this week under Abu Qir’s previous tender which was awarded to OCI. The vessel is bound for Turkey. algeriaThe Navigator Galaxy has loaded 15,000t of Sorfert tonnes this week for OCI’s system in the Netherlands, where its ammonia unit in Geleen is currently undergoing scheduled maintenance. The vessel is due to return to Arzew to load another cargo mid-April.

indian subcontinent

indiaFACT’s tender for 2 x 7,500t, which closed on 2 April, has been scrapped. The tender, which requested deliveries during 4-8 May and 18-22 May, attracted offers in the range $540-545/t cfr for the first shipment and $555/t cfr for the second shipment.

Indian DAP buyers have started to purchase for April, which suggests that stocks have been drawn down. This could prompt local DAP producers to begin ramping up production in second half April but ammonia deliveries are slow for April as tabulated on page 4. Moreover, the phosphoric acid price has still not settled for the second quarter which could push back the return of the producers to May. With the first bulk of DAP imports understood to be in the high $450s/t cfr, there are also concerns that DAP producers may opt to import rather than produce locally because of the high ammonia costs while the phosphoric acid price is also being pushed upwards by OCP.

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India cfr Far east cfr Middle East fob

india, far east and middle east price

Jubail and rak loading schedule for april

vessel date loadport Qty mt destination

Gaschem Stade 10-April Jubail 23,000 Far East

Rose Gas 13-April Jubail 23,000 Far East

Al Barrah 17-April RAK 23,000 Far East

Gas Quantum 25-APRIL JUBAIL 6,000 Far East

Jenny N 29-April Jubail 20,000 US

Jenny N 1-May RAK 20,000 US

Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Group Page 4 of 6

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

asia pacific

south koreaSFC is likely to receive two deliveries in April – from Sabic and Marubeni – but is currently negotiating the possibility of delaying its May cargo from Sabic to June because of Tongsuh Asahi’s turnaround plans. Tongsuh Asahi took one of its ACN lines down end-March for a month-long turnaround while its other two ACN lines will enter turnaround in May. This scheduled turnaround will reduce its ammonia consumption by around 20,000t during April-May.

taiwanTFC is trying to postpone its early June shipment from Sabic to end June or July. CPDC’s caprolactam line, which has been running at a reduced rate following technical issues, is due to go into a scheduled turnaround this coming week.

vietnamWith no news on Dinh Vu’s recent 7,000t tender, it is suggested by the industry that the tender has been scrapped.

malaysiaPetronas has loaded the Bunga Kemboja with 16,000t at the port of Kerteh, bound for Gresik, Indonesia.

americas

usThe interior markets remain firm and producers continue to increase asking prices. Some have listed prices that appear much higher than the physical market which are considered an effort to ward off additional sales. Barge indications are increased $10/st on last week to $540-550/st fob Nola, underpinned by business concluded for barges loading promptly for upriver delivery.

Despite weather-related delays in spring pre-planting activity in the northern Corn Belt, suppliers are expecting a solid spring application throughout the region based on prepay order books and the fact that several locations are already on allocation. As high as $700/st is understood to have traded in the far eastern Corn Belt, an impressive $120/st premium over the highest regional assessments during the recent fall application period.

The upper Mississippi river is closed to all barge traffic through 11 April at Sabula, Iowa, following the collision of a towboat with a railroad bridge on 8 April. This adds further delays to barge movement but fortunately, buyers in the north have time on their side as they await warmer temperatures.

ammonia arrivals in india during march/april 2014supplier name of vessel Quantity load port date of arrival disport price $ cfr

Muntajat/MCFL Al Majedah 4,000 Mesaieed 01.3.14 Mangalore LTC

Muntajat/TCL Al Majedah 6,500 Mesaieed 06.3.14 Haldia LTC

CIFC/Greenstar Gas Line 6,800 BIK 04.3.14 Tuticorin 483

Muntajat/Zuari Gas Columbia 5,000 Mesaieed 05.3.14 Goa LTC

CIFC//PPL Gas Line 16,221 BIK 08.3.14 Paradeep 483

Muntajat/CIL Al Marona 7,474 Ras Al Khair 08.3.14 Vizag LTC

Muntajat/FACT Al Marona 7,800 Ras Al Khair 11.3.14 Cochin 510

Trammo/IFFCO Brussels 23,500 Al Jubail 14.3.14 Kandla 458 fob

CIFC/Deepak Gas Cat 12,000 BIK 18.3.14 JNPT LTC

CIFC/FACT Gas Cat 7,850 BIK 26.3.14 Cochin 505

Nitrochem/IFFCO Clipper Mars 39,840 Yuzhny 21.3.14 Paradeep LTC

Sabic/Hindalco Rose Gas 3500 Ras Al Khair 25.3.14 Dahej 500

Sabic/Deepak Rose Gas 10,000 Ras Al Khair 26.3.14 JNPT 502

Muntajat/Zuari Al Marona 5,000 Ras Al Khair 26.3.14 Goa LTC

Muntajat/MCFL Al Marona 5,000 Ras Al Khair 28.3.14 Mangalore LTC

Muntajat/Greenstar Al Marona 5,350 Ras Al Khair 31.3.14 Tuticorin LTC

CIFC/PPL Gas Line 23,019 BIK 31.3.14 Paradeep LTC

march total 188,854Muntajat/CIL Al Majedah 8,000 Al Jubail 04.4.14 Kakinada 495

Muntajat/TCL Al Majedah 6,000 Al Jubail 06.4.14 Haldia LTC

Sabic/GSFC Rose Gas 10,276 Ras Al Khair 07.4.14 Sikka 496

Muntajat/Green Star Al Marona 4,500 Mesaieed 09.4.14 Tuticorin LTC

Muntajat/FACT Al Marona 7,500 Mesaieed 17.4.14 Cochin 530

Muntajat/TCL Al Marona 3,000 Mesaieed 18.4.14 Haldia LTC

muntajat/cil Gas Columbia 6,000 Mesaieed 16.4.14 Kakinada LTC

muntajat/ ppl Gas Columbia 18,000 Mesaieed 17.4.14 Paradeep LTC

april total 63,276

Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Group Page 5 of 6

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

trinidadKoch has loaded 25,000t onto the Luigi Lagrange, bound for a two-port discharge at Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, and Stockton, US.

agricultural outlook

us spring plantings slow to startUS spring plantings in the Corn Belt have not begun, and wet weather has delayed fieldwork in the southeast, ac-cording to the US Department of Agriculture’s first Crop Progress report of 2014 released this week.

Mississippi has planted 41pc of its corn acres, behind the 63pc five-year average. Arkansas has seen similar delays, planting 25pc compared to the 44pc five-year average. Some areas of the southeast received up to eight inches of rain over the past two weeks, according to the National Weather Service.

Corn plantings in Louisiana are nearly complete at 91pc, in

fmb spot sales selection – 10 april 2014

origin seller buyer destination ‘000t $pt bulk shipment

Yara Mitsubishi South Korea 7 May

Saudi Arabia Sabic Mitsui Far East 8 513fob April

Saudi Arabia Sabic Yara Far East 23 482fob April

Saudi Arabia Sabic Koch 40 477fob April

Yuzhny B Fertilizer OCI 12 485fob April

Yuzhny NF Trading Yara NW Europe 50 500fob April

Iran CIFC FACT India 7.5 520cfr April

Qatar Muntajat FACT India 7.5 530cfr April

Egypt Abu Qir OCI 11 454fob March/April

Saudi Arabia Sabic Marubeni 23 468fob March/April

Yuzhny NF Trading 20 450fob March

Yuzhny NF Trading Fertiberia Spain 10 450fob March

Iran CIFC FACT India 7.5 505cfr March

Muntajat FACT India 7.5 510cfr March

Yuzhny NF Trading B Fertilizer 25 435fob March

Yara CJ Indonesia 6 517cfr March

Saudi Arabia Sabic Transammonia 23 458fob March

Yara Mitsubishi South Korea 25.5 475cfr March

Australia Yara Namhae South Korea 7 500-505cfr February

Yuzhny NF Trading B Fertilizer 10-15 February

Saudi Arabia Sabic Marubeni Far East 15-23 455fob February

Yuzhny NF Trading Yara 412fob February

Trinidad Koch Mosaic Tampa 15-20 415cfr January

Yuzhny NF Trading iTrade Israel 12 430fob January

line with the average. Texas (54pc) and Georgia (59pc) corn plantings are also progressing at historical paces.

Fieldwork farther north has been limited because of re-sidual frost and cold soil temperatures from a much colder-than-normal winter. Missouri is the only Corn Belt state to have begun corn planting at 2pc complete.

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The harsh winter coupled with increased rain chances for the Corn Belt over the next six to 15 days could lead to planting delays similar to what was seen in 2013. But as of now, of the eight states reporting corn planting progress, only Mississippi and Louisiana are behind last year’s delayed pace by about five percentage points each.

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-15 | Thursday 10 April 2014

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Argus FMB Ammonia Methodology

Argus uses a precise andtransparent methodology toassess prices in all the markets it covers. The latest version of the Argus FMB AmmoniaMethodology can be found at:www.argusmedia.com/methodology.

For a hard copy, please email info@argusmedia.com, but please note that methodogies are updated frequently and for the latest version, you should visit the internet site.

LAST UPDATED: JULY 2012 The most up-to-date Argus FMB Ammonia methodology is available on www.argusmedia.comM

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Contents:Introduction 2The market 2 Price assessments 2