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Argus FMB Fertilizer Brazil

Issue 15-2 | Friday 25 September 2015

Markets snapshot

� Safrinha stock-building demand expected in 2H October � Further spot granular urea sales at lower prices � Bids and offers for MAP remain at $455-465/t cfr � Granular MOP sales reported sub-$300/t cfr

Market prices, commentary and news

ContentsBrazilian fertilizer price list 2Overview 3Regional coverage 4-12Local production 12Logistics 13Fundamentals 14Fertilizer news 16

Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd

View the methodology used to assess fertilizer prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected].

Imports: bulk, cfr Brazil $/t24 sep 17 sep ±

Granular urea 268-273 272-278 -4.5Prilled urea 265-270 270-275 -5.0Standard AS (caprolactam) 150-160 150-160 0.0MAP 11-52 455-465 455-465 0.0TSP 420-430 431-446 -13.5Granular MOP 300-310 300-310 0.0

Crop futures prices sep 15 oct 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 May 16

Cbot soybeans $/bushel 8.77 8.80Cbot corn $/bushel 3.82 3.93 4.00Ice sugar No. 11 ¢/lb 11.19 11.86 11.78Ice coffee ¢/lb 118.30 121.50 123.65Ice cotton ¢/lb 59.04 60.31 60.12 60.56

Inland: bulk, cif rondonopolis/sorriso $/t24 sep 17 sep ±

Granular urea 350-361 344-349 +9.0Granular AS 283-294 279-295 +1.5MAP 11-52-0 520-531 528-545 -11.0TSP 420-430 431-446 -13.5SSP 19-21% P2O5 240-264 237-265 +1.0Granular MOP 345-356 346-359 -2.0

related markets $/t24 sep 17 sep ±

Ethanol Cbot ¢/USG 150.0 152.2 -2.2

spot freight rates to Brazil $/tproduct: route, tonnage 24 sep 17 sep ±

Urea: Middle East - Brazil 30,000-35,000t 19-20 19-20 0.0Urea: Black Sea - Brazil 30,000-35,000t 22-23 22-23 0.0MAP/MOP: Baltic - Brazil 25,000-35,000t 20-25 20-25 0.0

exchange rate24 sep 17 sep ±

R:$ 4.1468 3.9008 +0.2460

Soybeans vs phosphate, potash

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

26 Jun 14 20 Nov 14 30 Apr 15 24 Sep 15250

300

350

400

450

500

550

MAP (right scale) $/t MOP (right scale) $/tSoybeans (left scale) ¢/bushel

Corn vs urea, potash

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

26 Jun 14 20 Nov 14 30 Apr 15 24 Sep 15250

275

300

325

350

375

400

Urea (right scale) $/t MOP (right scale) $/tCorn (left scale) ¢/bushel

hIghtlIghts

Licensed to: Argus Media, Argus Media


Issue 15-2 | Friday 25 September 2015 Argus FMB Fertilizer Brazil

of 17

Brazilian Fertilizer spot price list

imports, bulk, cfr Brazil $/t24 sep 17 sep ±

Granular urea 268-273 272-278 -4.5Prilled urea 265-270 270-275 -5.0Standard AS (caprolactam) 150-160 150-160 0.0Standard AS (ex-China) 150-155 150-155 0.0Granular AS 210-220 215-220 -2.5AN 34-00 / SAN 33-03 210-225 212-230 -3.5MAP 11-52-0 455-465 455-465 0.0MAP 10-50-0 (ex-China) 415-425 430-435 -12.5MAP 11-44-0 (ex-China) 360-375 370-375 -5.0TSP 350-360 350-360 0.0SSP 19-21% P2O5 160-180 165-185 -5.0DAP 445-455 445-455 0.0Granular MOP 300-310 300-310 0.0Phosphoric acid* t P2O5 3Q15 860-890 860-890 0.0Phosphate rock* 66-72% BPL 3Q15 130-140 130-140 0.0Sulphur spot 145-150 145-150 0.0Sulphur* contract 3Q15 153-158 153-158 0.0Sulphuric acid 55-65 55-65 0.0*quarterly contract price

production points, bulk, ex-worksR/t $/t

24 sep 17 sep ± 24 sep 17 sep ±

Prilled/granular urea, Laranjeiras

1086-1186 1021-1142 +54.5 262-286 262-293 -3.5

SSP 19-21% P2O5, Cubatao 725-815 725-815 0.0 175-197 186-209 -11.5

Barter rates: number of bags for 1t of npK blendsspot parity

24 sep 17 sep 24 sep 17 sep

Soybeans at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Cbot Mar 16

Cbot Mar 16

R/60kg bag 72.70 69.00 64.99 63.57

NPK 00-18-18/00-20-20 R/t fob 1,510.00 1,450.00 1,510.00 1,450.00

Ratio (number of 60kg bags) 20.77 21.01 23.23 22.81

Corn at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Cbot Jul 16

Cbot Jul 16

R/60kg bag 18.70 18.23 18.96 17.51

NPK 08-20-20/30-00-20/urea R/t fob 1,715.00 1,640.00 1,715.00 1,640.00


Cotton at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Ice Dec 15

Ice Dec 15

R/15kg bag 71.58 71.20 77.18 77.66

NPK 04-20-20/20-00-20 R/t fob 1,590.00 1,530.00 1,590.00 1,530.00


Coffee at Uberaba-Uberlandia

R/60kg bag 445.55 443.04 - -

NPK 20-05-20/25-00-25 R/t fob 1,600.00 1,540.00 - -

Ratio (number of 60kg bags) 3.59 3.48 - -

— Crop prices source: Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), Ministry of Agriculture’s National Supply Company (Conab)

inland, bulkR/t $/t

24 sep 17 sep ± 24 sep 17 sep ±

cif Rondonopolis/Sorriso

Granular urea 1450-1495 1340-1360 +122.5 350-361 344-349 +9.0

Granular AS 1175-1220 1090-1150 +77.5 283-294 279-295 +1.5

MAP 11-52-0 2155-2200 2060-2125 +85.0 520-531 528-545 -11.0

TSP 1740-1785 1680-1740 +52.5 420-430 431-446 -13.5

SSP 19-21% P2O5 995-1095 925-1035 +65.0 240-264 237-265 +1.0

Granular MOP 1430-1475 1350-1400 +77.5 345-356 346-359 -2.0

cif Catalao/Rio Verde

Granular urea 1430-1470 1360-1400 +70.0 345-354 349-359 -4.5

MAP 11-52-0 2210-2250 2100-2140 +110.0 533-543 538-549 -5.5

Granular MOP 1495-1535 1420-1465 +72.5 361-370 364-376 -4.5

cif Paulinia

Prilled urea 1285-1305 1230-1255 +52.5 310-315 315-322 -6.0

Granular MOP 1400-1420 1330-1360 +65.0 338-342 341-349 -5.0

cif Uberaba/Uberlandia

Granular urea 1330-1350 1270-1290 +60.0 321-326 326-331 -5.0

MAP 11-52-0 2170-2190 2060-2085 +107.5 523-528 528-535 -6.0

Granular MOP 1445-1470 1380-1400 +67.5 348-354 354-359 -5.5

cif Luis Eduardo Magalhaes

Granular urea 1320-1330 1260-1270 +60.0 318-321 323-326 -5.0

MAP 11-52-0 2070-2110 1960-2000 +110.0 499-509 502-513 -3.5

Granular MOP 1410-1440 1340-1380 +65.0 340-347 344-354 -5.5

Ex-port fob Rio Grande

Granular urea 1320-1360 1245-1285 +75.0 318-328 319-329 -1.0

MAP 11-52-0 2065-2105 1945-1985 +120.0 498-508 499-509 -1.0

TSP 1650-1690 1555-1595 +95.0 398-408 399-409 -1.0

DAP 2025-2105 1905-1985 +120.0 488-508 488-509 -0.5

Granular MOP 1400-1445 1320-1365 +80.0 338-348 338-350 -1.0

cif delivered to the distributor or NPK blender; AS=ammonium sulphate; AN=ammonium nitrate; SAN=stabilized AN

npK blends by main crop, baggedR/t $/t

24 sep 17 sep ± 24 sep 17 sep ±

fob Rondonopolis/Sorriso

Soybeans 00-18-18/ 00-20-20

1470-1550 1410-1490 +60.0 354-374 361-382 -7.5

Corn 08-20-20/ 30-00-20/urea

1670-1760 1600-1680 +75.0 403-424 410-431 -7.0

Cotton 04-20-20/ 20-00-20

1550-1630 1490-1570 +60.0 374-393 382-402 -8.5

fob Paulinia

Sugarcane 05-25-25/18-00-27/20-00-30

1490-1570 1430-1500 +65.0 359-379 367-385 -7.0

fob Uberaba/Uberlandia

Coffee 20-05-20/ 25-00-25

1560-1640 1500-1580 +60.0 376-395 385-405 -9.5




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Overview

import demand remains hand-to-mouthIt was another dull week in the Brazilian market. While there are some import enquiries by medium-sized distributors and NPK blenders, purchases remain mainly concentrated around large importers. Importers are essentially in the market to cover short-term requirements for the main application sea-son commencing in the second half of September.

The mood in the market remains cautious and is set to continue into the fourth quarter, which is seasonally weak for the fertilizer business. Concerns over an ever-reducing avail-ability of credit in combination with an ever-depreciating real, which has now surpassed R4 against the US dollar, are putting off importers and all are refraining from taking large-volume positions.

Nevertheless, consensus seems to be building up that there is a need to replenish the pipeline inland and build buffer stocks to be carried over into the New Year for the safrinha season during the first quarter of 2016.

In fact, in the central-west region, there are reports of increased demand for trucks to carry fertilizers intrastate, which are lending support to higher freight costs. This could be initial signs that agricultural producers are beginning to take deliveries of soil nutrients, which could spur some im-port activity. Market expectation is that more robust demand will emerge in the second half of October.

An increase in fertilizer trading activity is likely to prevent further price falls but it is not expected to lead to substantial price hikes.

Looking at this week’s spot trading, it remains a buy-ers’ market, as described by some. Granular urea traders with October positions have yet again conceded to further lower prices in order to secure business this week. Following purchases in the low-$270s/t cfr earlier in the week, in line with late business last week, firm bids put forward by large importers in the mid-$260s/t cfr yielded reported business sub-$270/t cfr or around $268/t cfr for southern ports.

As for phosphates, trading activity remains at very low levels and there was no spot business reported this week. Bids and offers are largely pegged at $455-460/t cfr south ports for October MAP 11-52-0 loaders. Availability of lower grade Chinese MAP 10-50-0 and MAP 11-44-0 remains limited and price indications are now lower at $415-425/t and $360-375/t, cfr Paranagua respectively.

Two large granular MOP importers’ firm bids close to $290/t cfr have led to reported prompt/October business in the mid-$290s/t cfr but this was largely unconfirmed at press time. Traditional suppliers continue to peg spot deals to $300-310/t cfr.

Benchmark import prices $/t

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

03 Jul 14 27 Nov 14 30 Apr 15 24 Sep 15

Granular urea MAP 11-52-0MOP

Port map

Main agricultural statesDistribution centers/ports

Itaqui

Importers in the market for granular urea ex-Middle East October loaders totalling 60,000t: offers in the mid-$270s/t cfr Itaqui, Vila do Conde

Rondonopolis

Large importer of MAP 11-52-0 bidding in the mid-$450s/t cfr Paranagua, equivalent to around $530/t cif Rondonopolis Vitoria

Large importer books gran-ular urea ex-Middle East, October lifting, sub-$270/t cfr Vitoria, Rio Grande.

Rio Grande

Unconfirmed sales of granular MOP for prompt/October shipment to large importers in the mid-$290s/t cfr Rio Grande, Paranagua

Spot business highlights � Large importer reportedly books October-loading cargo of

granular urea ex-Middle East sub-$270/t cfr Vitoria, Rio Grande � Further sales of October granular urea ex-Middle East




of 17

Central-West region

UreaLarge importers were able to secure further price conces-sions this week, as their firm stance on bids in the mid-$260s/t cfr resulted in October granular urea business sub-$270/t cfr Paranagua following sales in the low-$270s/t cfr earlier in the week.

The Top four – Yara, Mosaic, Fertipar and Heringer – along with Timac are in the market, according to market participants, to meet immediate requirements for the main application season, starting in the second half of September.

In Mato Grosso state, price indications for granular urea are at R1,450/t ($350/t) cif Rondonopolis, or equivalent to the mid-$270s/t cfr Paranagua against current logistics costs.

asCapro grade standard amsul ex-EU for October shipment is offered at $160/t cfr Paranagua, with a discount of $5-10/t applying to Chinese product. For product shipping in Novem-ber, price indications are lower at $155/t cfr for European amsul and at $145/t cfr ex-China. The premium for granular grade remains at a $60/t.

Contract customers have been allocated small lots of a combination cargo totalling 30,000t of European standard amsul (15,000t) and granular grade (15,000t) for late-Octo-ber shipment. Prices are under negotiation. The vessel is due for a multi-port discharge including Paranagua and Rio Grande, and Vila do Conde and Maceio in the northeast.

A spot cargo of 20,000t of Polish granular amsul for first-half October shipment is on offer.

anOffers for Russian pure ammonium nitrate 34-00 loading in October stand at $210-215/t cfr Paranagua. Demand is described as low.

MaPA large distributor is in the market for the import of an Oc-tober loader totalling 30,000t of MAP 11-52-0. Firm bids are in the mid-$450s/t cfr for a two-port discharge, likely Para-nagua or Rio Grande and another port outside the southern

cif Rondonopolis/Sorriso R/t

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15


cif Catalao/Rio Verde R/t

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15


region. Offers stand firm at $460/t cfr Paranagua and Rio Grande. Earlier, a parcel of 10,000t of Russian MAP 12-52-0 for September shipment was sold in the mid/high-$450s/t cfr Paranagua to a medium-sized NPK blender.

Chinese MAP 10-50-0 and MAP 11-44-0 are on offer at $425/t and $375/t versus bids $415/t and low-$360s/t, cfr Paranagua respectively.

A cargo of 35,000-40,000t of Chinese MAP 10-50-0 and MAP 11-44-0 is likely to be allocated for October shipment for arrival in late-November to early-December at Paranagua. The vessel might also call at another port in the northeast.

overvieW

loaders for deliveries at southern ports at $270-273/t cfr � Cargo of 38,000t US granular amsul for first-half October

shipment sells at $242/t cfr for discharge at Sao Francisco and Imbituba, and at Nova Palmira in Uruguay

� Cargoes of granular MOP for prompt and October lifting

are reportedly sold to large importers in the mid-$290s/t cfr Paranagua and Rio Grande but unconfirmed at press time

� More sulphur contract cargoes totalling 60,000t in two lots for deliveries in the fourth quarter sell lower at $130/t cfr Santos




of 17

Central-West region

Fertilizer arrivals at Paranagua and antonina, 2H september and 1H october — Orion and Wilson Sons

Buyer supplier/origin Vessel ’000t Productestimated

time of arrival

estimated time of

berth

estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Terminal P Felix Uralkali, Russia Santa Vitoria 30.0 MOP 16 Sep 21 Sep 27 Sep 5

Mosaic Canpotex, US Azalea Sky 61.0 MOP 9 Sep 22 Sep 28 Sep 13

Terminal P Felix Uralkali, Russia Smew 25.9 MOP 17 Sep 23 Sep 28 Sep 6

Utilfertil, Yara, Adufertil Mosaic, US Petra 11.0 MAP, DAP 11 Sep 24 Sep 26 Sep 13

Plant Bem, Nitrobras, Sao Luiz SQM, Chile Adfines West 20.9 MOP 9 Aug 26 Sep 1 Oct 48

Fertipar, Fertipol ICL, UK Maestro Tiger 30.4 MOP 2 Aug 26 Sep 1 Oct 55

Mosaic, Rifertil, Coopavel, Her-inger, Yara Comexport, Poland Osogovo 14.8 AS 16 Sep 27 Sep 30 Sep 11

Mosaic Mosaic, US Giulia I 37.4 NPK 10-46-0, NPK 13-33-0, MAP 19 Aug 28 Sep 2 Oct 40

Fertipar K+S, Germany Ivs Kinglet 30.0 AS, MOP 31 Jul 29 Sep 4 Oct 60

Mosaic Mosaic, US Petra 2.7 NPK 13-33-0 26 Sep 30 Sep 4 Oct 4

Mosaic Mosaic, US Koombana Bay 13.6 NPK 13-33-1 26 Sep 30 Sep 3 Oct 4

Fertigran, Fertipar Rotem, Israel Caledonia 26.3 MOP 15 Aug 1 Oct 6 Oct 47

Heringer, Mosaic Canpotex, Canada Plate Queen 50.4 MOP 16 Sep 2 Oct 6 Oct 16

Sul Goiania, Sao Luiz, Mosaic, Adu-bos Sudoeste, Fertipol, Koch 7 Seas Trading, China Tamarita 37.8 TSP, MAP 8 Aug 4 Oct 11 Oct 57

- Fitco, FSU Louise Bulker 20.0 AS 6 Oct 6 Oct 10 Oct 0

Fertipar, Fertigran, Macrofertil K+S, Germany Santa Anna 26.0 MOP 12 Sep 6 Oct 10 Oct 24

- Mosaic, US Cielo di Virgin Gorda 37.7 NP, DAP 9 Oct 9 Oct 13 Oct 0

- Canpotex, Canada Mighty Sky 62.0 MOP 10 Oct 13 Oct 19 Oct 3

CHS ICL, Spain Eastgate S 15.3 MOP 15 Aug 15 Oct 18 Oct 61

Total 553.2

Average waiting time 25.0

ssPInland, at Rondonopolis, SSP 19pc P2O5 is priced at R995/t ($240/t) and at R1,050/t cif ($253/t) cif. At Sorriso, SSP 21pc P2O5 is priced at R1,095/t ($264/t) cif.

MoPTwo large importers are reported to have secured October loaders at $295/t cfr for discharge at Paranagua and Rio Grande following firm bids nearer $290/t cfr. The business

had to be further verified at press time. A premium of up to $10/t continues to apply to small-to-medium importers.

The Adfines West with 20,900t of granular MOP, which has been booked with SQM/Chile, according to shipping com-panies, is due to berth 26 September at Antonina, with Plant Bem, Nitrobras and Sao Luiz reported to be the importers.

A further 30,400t of granular MOP ex-UK on the Maestro Tiger, booked with ICL, is also set to berth at Antonina on 26 September for Fertipar and Fertipol, say shipping brokers.




of 17

South region

ureaSales of lots of granular urea ex-Middle East for October shipment are reported again this week but at still lower prices. A large importer has concluded the purchase of 30,000t sub-$270/t cfr Rio Grande and Vitoria, reportedly as low as $268/t cfr. It follows spot October business in the low-$270s/t cfr last week.

Unifertil, Josapar, Ourofertil, Coxilha and Heringer are scheduled to take receipt of 21,800t of granular urea on the Western Bergenat at Rio Grande on 30 September, say ship-ping companies.

ASOffers for European capro grade standard amsul for ship-ment in October are at $160/t cfr Rio Grande with Chinese product at $150/t cfr. For November business, buyers anticipate prices at $155/t cfr ex-EU and $145/t cfr ex-China. A premium of $60/t over standard grade applies to granular grade.

A spot cargo of 20,000t of Polish granular amsul for first-half October shipment is on offer.

A part-cargo of 15,000t off a 38,000t vessel of US granu-lar amsul for first-half October shipment is reported to have been sold at $242/t cfr Sao Francisco and Imbituba. The balance of 23,000t is to be discharged at Nova Palmira in Uruguay.

Small lots of a 30,000t combination cargo of standard amsul (15,000t) and granular grade (15,000t) ex-Europe for late-October loading are scheduled to be delivered to con-tract customers at Rio Grande. Prices have yet to be fixed.

MAPA large importer is reportedly bidding in the mid-$450s/t cfr for a cargo of 30,000t of MAP 11-52-0 for October shipment for a two-port discharge, possibly including Rio Grande or

another southern port. Counter-bids stand at $460/t cfr Paranagua and Rio Grande.

tSPPorto Alegre-based Piratini in Rio Grande do Sul state, is scheduled to receive 5,000t of Moroccan TSP on the Mari-time Champion at Rio Grande, say shipping brokers, with the vessel scheduled to berth 25 September.

MoPTwo large importers are reported to have secured granular MOP for prompt/October shipment in the mid-$290s/t cfr Rio Grande at Paranagua from traditional supply sources. The business was pending further confirmation at press time.

Import enquiries remain in the market to cover immedi-ate requirements for the main application season, which has already begun in Parana state.

Heringer is due to take receipt of 6,300t of Canadian granular MOP on the Star Manx on 22 September, according to shipping companies.

fob Rio Grande R/t

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15





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South region

Fertilizer arrivals at rio grande, 2h September and 1h october — Orion and Wilson Sons

Buyer Supplier/origin Vessel ’000t Productestimated

time of arrival

estimated time of

berth

estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Yara Yara Saga Viking 22.0 NPK 8 Sep 22 Sep 28 Sep 14

Piratini OCP, Morocco Maritime Cham-pion 5.0 TSP 11 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 14

Yara Yara Li Hai 35.0 MOP 13 Sep 27 Sep 4 Oct 14

Piratini, CHS, Timac Agro Yara, Qatar Four Kitakami 10.5 Urea 13 Sep 28 Sep 30 Sep 15

Yara Fitco Pollux 8.6 AS 23 Sep 29 Sep 1 Oct 6

Heringer Canpotex, Canada Star Manx 6.3 MOP 22 Sep 30 Sep 1 Oct 8

Unifertil, Josapar, Ourofertil, Coxilha, Heringer Ameropa, Qatar Western Bergen 21.8 Urea 20 Sep 30 Sep 3 Oct 10

Heringer, Unifertil, Piratini, Mosaic Fitco, Belgium Pollux 8.4 AS 23 Sep 1 Oct 3 Oct 8

Yara OCP, Morocco Sirius 27.5 Phosphate Rock 23 Sep 1 Oct 6 Oct 8

Coxilha, Unifertil, Josapar, Multifertil K+S, Germany Ic Phoenix 17.0 MOP 25 Sep 3 Oct 6 Oct 8

Yara Yara, Qatar Liberty 18.0 Urea 23 Sep 4 Oct 8 Oct 11

Heringer Canpotex, Canada Annika N 5.0 MOP 29 Sep 7 Oct 8 Oct 8

Yara Yara, Netherlands Mariana 13.4 NPK, AN 24 Sep 7 Oct 10 Oct 13

Mosaic, Piratini Quantum Fertilizers, Qatar Liberty 7.5 Urea 23 Sep 8 Oct 9 Oct 15

Yara OCP, Morocoo Samsun 43.0 TSP, DAP, MAP 4 Oct 8 Oct 16 Oct 4

Tres Tentos Agro, Multifertil, Piratini, Coxilha Ameropa, China Tai Hunter 14.1 NP 1 Sep 9 Oct 11 Oct 38

Mosaic Canpotex, Canada Sea Iris 21.1 MOP 1 Oct 11 Oct 14 Oct 10

Total 284.2





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SoutheaSt region

ureaA large importer has secured a lot of Middle Eastern granular urea for October shipment below $270/t cfr for delivery to Vitoria and Paranagua. It follows the purchase last week also by a large buyer at $272/t cfr, also for discharge at Vitoria and Paranagua.

A price indication for granular urea at $268/t cfr Vitoria, suggests a price in the mid/high-$320s/t cif Uberaba in Minas Gerais state, based on current inland logistics. Uberaba prices for the product currently stand in the low-$320s/t cif.

Price ideas for prills have been adjusted down to $265/t cfr for deliveries at Santos and Vitoria to reflect lower granular pricing.

In Sao Paulo state, prilled urea pricing is indicated at R1,285/t ($310/t) cif at Paulinia, reflecting the mid/high-$260s/t cfr Santos.

aSUberaba-based Fertigran in Minas Gerais state is to take receipt of 26,000t of amsul, booked with Trammo, on the Tenshoumaru, on 2 October at Vitoria port, according to shipping companies.

anBids and offers for Russian pure ammonium nitrate 34-00 for October shipment are at $210-215/t cfr Santos.

MaPLatest price ideas for MAP 11-52-0 at Uberaba are assessed at R2,170/t ($523/t) cif and at R2,190/t ($528/t) cif Uber-landia, equating to around the mid-$460s/t cfr Vitoria.

Petrobras has put its Uberaba ammonia plant up for sale after suspension of operations at the site. The decision fol-lows Petrobras’ 2015-2019 business and management plan. The nominal capacity for ammonia production at the unit is 519,000t/yr. Petrobras also has the option to sell the equip-ment individually.

MoPBids from large importers are reported close to $290/t cfr Santos and Vitoria for granular MOP cargoes shipping in October. It follows reported sales into southern ports in the mid-$290s/t cfr.

The Bonita with 32,000t of granular MOP, open origin, is

cif Uberaba/Uberlandia R/t

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15


cif Paulinia R/t

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15

Prilled urea MOP

scheduled to arrive at Vitoria for Heringer on 30 September, according to shipping brokers.

SulphurVale has booked sulphur cargoes ex-Kazakhstan under con-tract in two lots for October and December shipment total-ling 75,000t at $130/t cfr Santos.A further two cargoes of 30,000t each from Middle East and three vessels of 30,000t from the US Gulf are to be negoti-ated to finalise its contract volume requirement for deliver-ies in the fourth quarter.

The purchase of two cargoes ex-Middle East and one ex-US Gulf are expected to be concluded over the coming days. The remaining two US Gulf cargoes are to be negotiated in October.




of 17

SoutheaSt region

Fertilizer arrivals at Santos, 2h September and 1h october — Orion and Wilson Sons

Buyer Supplier/origin Vessel ’000t Productestimated

time of arrival

estimated time of

berth

estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Mosaic Canpotex, Canada Sea Iris 12.5 MOP 10 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep 12

Yara Kali, Germany Santa Ursula 28.3 MOP 22 Sep 22 Sep 25 Sep 0

Heringer Koch, Qatar White Bay 22.0 Urea 23 Sep 23 Sep 25 Sep 0

Vale Yara, Trinidad Tobago Nijinsky 15.0 Ammonia 23 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 0

- Kali, Germany Santa Ursula 7.7 MOP 21 Sep 24 Sep 26 Sep 3

- Fitco, FSU Strategic Equity 5.7 AN 16 Sep 25 Sep 27 Sep 9

Vale Vale, Peru Quinn J 32.2 Phosphate Rock 23 Sep 26 Sep 29 Sep 3

- Yara, Norway Annika N 32.8 MOP 25 Sep 27 Sep 30 Sep 2

- Fitco, Qatar Cariboo 16.8 Urea 16 Sep 29 Sep 1 Oct 13

Vale Yara, Trinidad Tobago Marola 17.0 Ammonia 29 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep 0

Yara Yara, FSU Saga Enterprise 36.0 Urea, AN 28 Sep 30 Sep 4 Oct 2

Vale Shell, US Marylebone 38.0 Sulphur 20 Sep 30 Sep 2 Oct 10

Yara Yara, Netherlands Eagle Arrow 20.5 NPK 17 Sep 1 Oct 4 Oct 14

Vale Ciech, Poland Friendly Islands 26.8 Sulphur 2 Oct 2 Oct 4 Oct 0

Yara Canpotex, Canada Ultra Colonsay 32.1 MOP 19 Sep 4 Oct 8 Oct 15

Araguaia Yara, China Tai Hunter 11.0 NPK 28 Sep 4 Oct 5 Oct 6

Vale - Akili 35.0 Sulphur 4 Oct 4 Oct 7 Oct 0

Mosaic Yara, Norway Annika N 32.8 MOP 25 Sep 8 Oct 12 Oct 13

Vale Vale, Peru Gladiator 35.0 Phosphate Rock 9 Oct 9 Oct 12 Oct 0

Yara Yara, FSU Mobilana 18.2 NPK 3 Oct 12 Oct 18 Oct 9

Mosaic Canpotex, Canada Tn Dawn 23.5 MOP 4 Oct 14 Oct 17 Oct 10

Total 498.9





of 17

Fertilizer arrivals at Vitoria, 2H September and 1H October — Orion and Wilson Sons

Buyer Supplier/origin Vessel ’000t ProductEstimated

time of arrival

Estimated time of

berth

Estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Heringer Canada Strategic Unity 32.0 MOP 20 Sep 22 Sep 26 Sep 2

Heringer - Bonita 32.0 MOP 30 Sep 30 Sep 5 Oct 0

Fertipar - Taihua Star 21.0 Urea 30 Sep 6 Oct 9 Oct 6

Fertigran Trammo Tenshoumaru 26.0 AS 2 Oct 9 Oct 11 Oct 7

Heringer - Jin Hao 31.0 Urea 5 Oct 11 Oct 13 Oct 6

Mosaic - Vsc Pollux 25.0 Urea 12 Oct 14 Oct 17 Oct 2

- - Ocean Diamond 17.0 Fertilizer 15 Oct 17 Oct 20 Oct 2

- - Pola Atlantic 20.0 Fertilizer 20 Oct 24 Oct 28 Oct 4

Total 204.0


SOutHEaSt rEgiOn




of 17

Matopiba region

UreaMedium-sized NPK blenders are in the market along with two large importers to book a total of 60,000t of granular urea in two consignments for loading in late October. Offers for Middle East product are indicated at $275-280/t cfr for deliveries at Itaqui and Vila do Conde.

Prices for granular urea at Luis Eduardo Magalhaes are assessed higher at R1,320-1,330/t ($320/t) cif, equating to around the mid-$260s/t cfr Aratu.

aSA 30,000t combination cargo of standard amsul (15,000t) and granular grade (15,000t) sourced from Europe is to be shipped in late October to contract customers for multi-port delivery at Vila do Conde and Maceio,and other southern ports, including Paranagua and Rio Grande. The tonnes have yet to be priced.

MapThe Bonita is scheduled to deliver a 13,600t cargo of MAP 11-52-0 for Heringer and Mosaic on 8 October at Aratu, ac-cording to shipping sources. Netbacks for MAP 11-52-0 are equivalent to around $450/t cfr, based on R2,070-2,110/t ($504/t) cif at Luis Eduardo Magalhaes.

SSpTimac and Cibrafertil are scheduled to take receipt of a combined cargo of SSP (22,000t) and phosphate rock (11,000t) from Egypt on the Maritime Faith. According to

shipping agencies, the vessel is estimated to berth on 30 September.

MopGranular MOP prices are assessed at R1,410-1,440/t ($344/t cif) Luis Eduardo Magalhaes, equating to $290/t cfr Aratu based on current logistics costs. Mid-sized buyers declare to be out of the market following the expectation of lower cfr prices in October.

Sulphuric acidPetrobras is to take receipt of 17,500t of sulphuric acid on the Celsius Monaco at Barra dos Coqueiros on 29 Septem-ber, when the ship is scheduled to berth, according shipping sources. The vessel is set to sail on 2 October.

cif Luis Eduardo Magalhaes R/t

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

15 Jan 15 09 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 24 Sep 15





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Matopiba region

Fertilizer arrivals at aratu, 2H September and 1H october — Orion and Wilson Sons

buyer Supplier/origin Vessel ’000t productestimated

time of arrival

estimated time of

berth

estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Timac Agro, Cibrafertil Egypt Maritime Faith 33.0 SSP, Phosphate Rock 30 Sep 30 Sep 10 Oct 0

Heringer, Mosaic - Bonita 13.6 MAP 8 Oct 8 Oct 13 Oct 0

Total 46.6


Fertilizer arrivals at itaqui, 2H September and 1H october — Orion and Wilson Sons

buyer Supplier/origin Vessel ’000t productestimated

time of arrival

estimated time of

berth

estimated time of

departure

Waiting time days

Fertipar - Taihua Star 5.0 Fertilizer 22 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep 0

Yara Yara Andean 26.0 Fertilizer 22 Sep 23 Sep 27 Sep 1

Yara Yara, FSU Muskhy 8.0 Fertilizer 30 Sep 3 Oct 5 Oct 3

Risa, Fertipar, Peninsula - Atlantica 75.0 Fertilizer 3 Oct 9 Oct 14 Oct 6

Tocantins FSU Karvuna 11.0 Fertilizer 3 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct 2

Tocantins Saudi Arabia Jin Hao 13.0 Fertilizer 5 Oct 7 Oct 10 Oct 2

Yara - Nordic Visby 11.0 Fertilizer 6 Oct 10 Oct 13 Oct 4

Total 149.0


production updateS

production updates

product company, site location

nameplate capacity comments

AS Laranjeiras, Sergipe 303,000 t/yr Production has been down for around 50 days owing to technical adjustments to the plant. Operations were resuming this week.




of 17

Logistics

FreightFreight rates for truckloads of 36-40t of fertilizers bound for the central-west region have firmed this week, mostly on the back of renewed demand for trucks in the region but also on reported higher toll rates on the BR-163 highway.

As a result, logistics costs on the main north-westbound routes, namely the benchmark Paranagua-Rondonopolis and Paranagua-Rio Verde conveyances, were indicated at R145/t and R155/t, respectively, up from R140/t and R120/t last week. The freight rate for the Santos-Rondonopolis route firmed R5/t to R125/t.

From Vitoria port to Catalao in Goias state, truck rates remain steady at around R$120/t.

In the southeast, freight costs for trucks bound for Uberaba and Uberlandia in Minas Gerais state from the ports of Paranagua, Vitoria and Santos, however, remained unchanged at R155/t, R110/t and R90/t, respectively. In-trastate, in Sao Paulo, the rate for Santos-Paulinia was also pegged to last week’s levels at R60-70/t for truckloads of 28-30t.

In the Matopiba region, the freight for trucks heading to Luis Eduardo Magalhaes from Aratu port firmed by R10/t to R95-100/t.

Port costsWaiting time at Paranagua port is estimated to have been

spot freight rates to Brazil $/tProduct: Route, tonnage 24 sep 17 sep

Urea: Middle East-Brazil 30,000-35,000t 19-20 19-20Urea: Black Sea-Brazil 30,000-35,000t 22-23 22-23MAP/MOP: Baltic-Brazil 25,000-35,000t 20-25 20-25MAP/DAP: Morocco-Brazil 25,000-35,000t 13-14 13-14MAP/TSP/SSP: China-Brazil 25,000-35,000t 25-27 25-27MAP/DAP: Tampa-Brazil 25,000-35,000t 18-20 18-20Phosphate rock: Morocco-Brazil 30,000t 14-15 14-15Sulphur: Middle East-Brazil 30,000-35,000t 20-23 20-23Sulphur: US Gulf-Brazil 35,000-40,000t 16-18 16-18Sulphur: Baltic-Brazil 30,000-35,000t 25-29 25-29Sulphur: Black Sea-Brazil 30,000-35,000t 27-29 27-29Sulphuric acid: NWE-Brazil 20,000t 42-46 42-47

Port costs $/t

Port storage, other costs* Demurrage total

Paranagua and Antonina 21 18 39Rio Grande 20 3 23Santos 28 1 29Vitoria 28 1 29Aratu 24 6 30Itaqui 22 3 25

* including stevedorage charges and other related costs but excluding bags/bagging

spot inland truck freight ratesR/t $/t

Route 24 sep 17 sep 24 sep 17 sep

Paranagua (PR)- Rondonopolis/Sorriso (MT) 36-40t 145-190 140-165 35-46 36-42

Santos/Cubatao (SP)- Rondonopolis/Sorriso (MT) 36-40t 125-170 120-160 30-41 31-41

Paranagua (PR)- Rio Verde (GO) 36-40t 155-160 120-125 37-39 31-32

Vitoria (ES)-Catalao (GO) (intermodal*) 36-40t 115-125 115-125 28-30 29-32

Laranjeiras (SE)- Catalao (GO) 36-40t 145-150 140-150 35-36 36-38

Paranagua (PR)- Uberaba/Uberlandia (MG) 36-40t 155-165 140-155 37-40 36-40

Vitoria (ES)- Uberaba/Uberlandia (MG) 36-40t 110-125 110-125 27-30 28-32

Santos/Cubatao (SP)- Uberaba/Uberlandia (MG) 36-40t 90-100 90-100 22-24 23-26

Santos/Cubatao (SP)- Paulinia (SP) 28-30t 60-70 60-70 14-17 15-18

Aratu (BA)- Luis Eduardo Magalhaes (BA) 28-30t 95-100 85-90 23-24 22-23

*Vitoria-Araguari (rail), Araguari-Catalao (road)

State abbreviations: PR=Parana, MT=Mato Grosso, SP=Sao Paulo, GO=Goias, ES=Espirito Santo, SE=Sergipe, BA=Bahia, MG=Minas Gerais

Distribution centers/ports

Freight map $/t

Aratu

30.0

Paranagua

39.0

Rio grande

23.0

Aratu- Luis Eduardo

23.5

Paranagua- Rio Verde

38.0

santos- Paulinia

15.5

Paranagua- Rondonopolis

40.5

santos- Uberaba

23.0

Port costs

Freight

santos

29.0




of 17

Fundamentals

WeatherTemperatures above 25 C forecast for the next seven days in the southeast region could provide dryer soil conditions in the sugarcane areas hit by above-average rains in the past few weeks. In the central-west region, scarce rains and cloudy weather show low probability of keeping agricultural producers from preparing the soil for soybean crop planting. Temperatures are forecast to remain above the mid-30s C for the central-west and Matopiba regions, according to National Weather Service (Noaa).

In the northeastern portion of Rio Grande do Sul state heavy rains could reach up to 135mm over the next week. Combined with a high-20s C temperature, the National Me-teorology Institute (Inmet) says there is a strong possibility of hail occurring, which could delay planting activities for the 2015-16 summer season.

HarvestRural Extension Company (Emater) estimates 36pc of the total corn area projected for 2015-16 in Rio Grande do Sul state is planted, in comparison with 33pc a year earlier. Emater projects slower planting activity for the next few days on account of uninterrupted showers. The delay to corn planting could lead to a damaging of productivity and encourage a change from corn to soybean planting, consid-ering its ideal planting season occurs later than corn. Higher profitability has supported increases in soybean area planted in Rio Grande do Sul state for the 2014-15 crop.

Agricultural Economy Department (Deral) of Parana state released its first estimate for soybeans planting this Thursday 24 September, which shows that 5pc of the total soybean area for the 2015-16 main crop is already planted in the state.

In Mato Grosso state, low soil humidity and irregular rains leading to possibly lower yields for the crop in 2015-16 are

of most concern to soybean growers. The planting season is allowed in the state from the first half of September but should only pick up in the second half of October in most regions, once better humidity and growth conditions com-mence for that period.

Crop prices/barter ratesThe real depreciation against the US dollar has been an important fundamental for the strengthening in spot prices for soybeans, corn and cotton. Prices have reached their highest values in 2015 for two consecutive weeks. The same fundamental is responsible for higher assessments for NPK

Barter rates: number of bags for 1t of nPK blendsspot Parity

24 sep 17 sep 24 sep 17 sep

Soybeans at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Cbot Mar 16

Cbot Mar 16

R/60kg bag 72.70 69.00 64.99 63.57

NPK 00-18-18/00-20-20 R/t fob 1,510.00 1,450.00 1,510.00 1,450.00


Corn at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Cbot Jul 16

Cbot Jul 16

R/60kg bag 18.70 18.23 18.96 17.51

NPK 08-20-20/30-00-20/urea R/t fob 1,715.00 1,640.00 1,715.00 1,640.00


Cotton at Rondonopolis-Sorriso Ice Dec 15

Ice Dec 15

R/15kg bag 71.58 71.20 77.18 77.66

NPK 04-20-20/20-00-20 R/t fob 1,590.00 1,530.00 1,590.00 1,530.00


Coffee at Uberaba-Uberlandia

R/60kg bag 445.55 443.04 - -

NPK 20-05-20/25-00-25 R/t fob 1,600.00 1,540.00 - -

Ratio (number of 60kg bags) 3.59 3.48 - -

— Crop prices source: Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), Ministry of Agriculture’s National Supply Company (Conab)

logistiCs

reduced to 25 days from 30-35 days earlier in the month. As a result, the demurrage rate has also fallen and is indicated at $18/t, down from $22/t last week. Storage and other related costs are also down and indicated at $21/t, as these are in local currency and the real continues to weaken against the US dollar.

Lower costs for storage and other related costs are also noted at the other key ports of Rio Grande, Santos, Vitoria, Aratu and Itaqui. Demurrage rates at these ports are stable and range between $1-3/t, except Aratu, where these are

quoted at $6/t.Port terminal maintenance work, according to shipping

companies, is as follows:• Santos port: Cereal Sul 13/14 terminal – maintenance

29 September-7 October• Vitoria port: TPD4 terminal – maintenance 13-14 Octo-

ber• Paranagua port berth restructuring: Commercial Quay

209 terminal –up to 29 September; Commercial Quay 210/211 terminal – 1-10 October




of 17

blends in Rondonopolis/Sorriso and Uberaba/Uberlandia this week, contrasting with a long-term trend of lower cfr prices quoted in US dollars.

For soybeans, the spot ratio for 1t of NPK 00-18-18 and 00-20-20 remains 21 bags of 60 kg in Rondonopolis and Sor-riso. Against current Cbot-parity prices for the same NPK blends applied on soybeans, the ratio is 23 bags of 60 kg.

Spot and Cbot-parity prices for corn are higher this week, but the stronger increase for 1t of NPK 08-20-20, NPK 30-00-20 and urea prices resulted in spot barter ratios up to 92 bags of 60 kg in Rondonopolis/Sorriso. In occurrence of higher corn futures, on a Cbot-parity basis for the same NPK blends, the rate is down to around 90 bags of 60 kg.

A coffee spot barter rate of almost 4 bags of 60 kg for 1t of NPK 20-05-20 and NPK 25-00-25 at Uberaba/Uberlandia is the highest noted in 2015 so far.

Fundamentals

Barter ratio indexes (4 Dec 2014=100)

80

90

100

110

120

05 Feb 15 23 Apr 15 09 Jul 15 24 Sep 1560

80

100

120

140

Soybeans vs NPK 00-18-18/00-20-20 (left scale)Corn vs NPK 08-20-20/30-00-20/urea (left scale)Coffee vs NPK 20-05-20/25-00-25 (right scale)Cotton vs NPK 04-20-20/20-00-20 (right scale)




of 17

Fertilizer News

Mosaic to cut production amid soft marketNorth American phosphate and potash producer Mosaic will cut production in reaction to weaker-than-expected prices and delayed fertilizer demand in the US and Brazil.

Mosaic will extend the planned maintenance turnaround at its Colonsay potash mine (estimated operational capac-ity of 2.1mn t/yr MOP) in Saskatchewan in order to curtail production, citing currency volatility, lower crop prices and political and economic uncertainty that has impacted demand in its key regions.

Potash prices have steadily weakened in 2015, particu-larly in the key US and Brazil granular MOP markets, with supplies high and demand limited. US MOP barge prices have declined by about $23/st over the course of the third quar-ter to $290-295/st fob Nola.

As a result, Mosaic expects its third quarter MOP sales volumes to be near the low end of its original 1.6mn-2mn t guidance range and average selling prices to be around $260-$270/t ($236-$245/st), down from $280/t in the second quarter.

On the phosphate side, Mosaic said it will "maintain planned slower production," but provided no firm details. It expects phosphate sales volumes to also be near the low end of its prior guidance range of 2.1mn-2.4mn t. Mosaic last curtailed phosphate production in late September 2014 amid rising feedstock costs and weaker demand.

"The long-term positive outlook for crop nutrient demand has not changed, but the industry faces some near-term challenges in the current environment...It is a time for lead-ership, and we are managing our production levels to match current demand, controlling our costs, and maintaining our discipline," Mosaic chief executive Joc O'Rourke said.

Despite the lower volumes, it said average DAP selling prices will likely come in the upper half of its $435-$455/t ($395-$413/st) guidance, highlighting the relative price resilience and stability DAP has had compared to urea and potash, particularly in the US. DAP barge prices had spent all of the third quarter in the $430s/st fob Nola, before dipping below the $430/st mark last week.

CF's Us expansions remain on trackCF Industries' nitrogen expansion projects at Donaldsonville, Louisiana, and Port Neal, Iowa, as well as the recently-ac-quired OCI Iowa Fertilizer greenfield plant remain on track.

The leading US producer updated the progress of the projects in a presentation to investors today. The Donaldson-ville and Port Neal expansions alone will increase CF's total

urea capacity by 91pc to 5.25mn st/yr and UAN capacity by 13pc to 7.36m st/yr, based on typical estimated production rates.

Donaldsonville's 1.3mn st/yr urea plant still is scheduled to come on line in the late third quarter or early fourth quarter, followed by the new 1.8mn st/yr UAN plant in the fourth quarter. At the urea plant, piping system testing is underway and various process systems are being turned over to CF and pre-commissioned.

At the UAN plant, major equipment has been set, struc-tural steel scope work has been completed and piping is more than 80pc done. The new ammonia plant is on pace to begin production in early 2016, with about 80pc of structural steel now in place and piping work ongoing.

The Port Neal expansion remains on track to start up in mid-2016, which will also add 1.3mn st/yr of new urea capacity. CF said 80pc of structural steel has been erected and piping is 20pc complete.

The Iowa Fertilizer plant in Wever, Iowa, which CF acquired through its [combination with OCI](http://direct.ar-gusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1083180), is expect-ed to begin production in the first quarter of 2016. The plant has estimated capacities of 463,000 st/yr urea and 1.7mn st/yr UAN, in addition to diesel exhaust fluid.

Brazil’s sulphuric acid imports riseBrazilian sulphuric acid imports rose by 49pc on the year to 400,000t in January-August, data from the bureau of foreign trade show.

The bulk of imports were provided by northwest Euro-pean producers, with supplies from Belgium increasing by 140pc to over 100,000t (see table). The main suppliers last year, Spain and Germany, lost market share, while supplies from Finland and Sweden rose to about 60,000t and 55,000t, respectively, from zero last year. Polish supplies grew to more than 30,000t, compared with zero last year.

The increase in imports was driven by higher demand from Brazil’s fertilizer and metals producers.

Assuming average imports stay unchanged at around 50,000 t/month the total for 2015 is likely to surpass 2014's 472,000t level.

The port of Rio Grande, in the south of the country, imported the most sulphuric acid in January-August, at 155,000t, up by 19pc. The largest percentage gain was at the northeastern port of Barra Dos Coqueiros, where imports rose by 440pc to 80,000t. Imports to Aratu, south of Barra Dos Coquieros, rose by 124pc to almost 80,000t, while deliv-



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illuminating the marketsFertilizers

FErtILIzEr NEwS

eries to Paranagua increased to 17pc to more than 85,000t.Only Imbituba, in the south, recorded a fall, to zero from

8,000t a year earlier.

Vale sets meeting on Brazil phosphate mineBrazil's Vale Fertilizantes will hold a public meeting on its phosphate rock mining project in Patrocinio in Minas Gerais state, on 30 October to discuss the licensing and construc-tion process.

The Patrocinio project is expected to reach a produc-tion capacity of 1.6mn t of phosphate rock in its first year of operation. Once fully operational, output could reach as much as 7mn t/yr.

The purpose of the project is to integrate the new mine

into Vale’s phosphate production system in the region by providing the raw material for the manufacturing of phos-phate products, such as Single superphosphate (SSP), at Vale’s existing processing unit in Araxa, located just over 100km from the mining site.

The mining project also benefits from a good logistics, including rail links that integrate Vale’s phosphate produc-tion units in Minas Gerais state, including Uberaba, Tapira and Araxa, and the plant in Catalao, in neighboring Goias state.

The timeline for project has yet to be determined, as the implementation of the project requires approval by Vale’s board of directors.


Issue Ref: 190653

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