Arctic TemperatizationArctic Temperatization: A Preliminary Study of Future Climate Impacts on Agricultural

Opportunities in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin

Katelyn Dolan

Dr. Richard B. Lammers -AdvisorDr. Charles J. Vörösmarty -Advisor

UNH Complex Systems Research Center – Water Systems Analysis GroupResearch and Discover - 2006

• Background- Climate change and current northern agriculture

• Methods • Results

– Possible cropland expansion due to climate change– Limitations to cropland expansion and productivity

• Conclusions and Future Studies

Overview

Climate Change and the Pan-ArcticClimate Change and the Pan-Arctic

Stanley Glidden UNH WSAG

• Earths Climate is Changing

• Global Temperatures Predicted to Rise Between 2-4 C in Next 100 years (IPCC)

• Studies suggest that Global Warming could have negative impacts on global crop production especially in tropical regions.

• Look at opportunities for Northern Agriculture Expansion and future constraints

• Earths Climate is Changing

• Global Temperatures Predicted to Rise Between 2-4 C in Next 100 years (IPCC)

• Studies suggest that Global Warming could have negative impacts on global crop production especially in tropical regions.

• Look at opportunities for Northern Agriculture Expansion and future constraints

Current State of AgricultureCurrent State of Agriculture

Wheat Production in the Pan-ArcticWheat Production in the Pan-Arctic

0.01- 0.05

0.05 - 0.2

0.20 - 0.40

0.40- 0.66

Cropland Fraction

*Wheat was used as the representative crop for northern latitudes in this study because of its global importance, adaptability to extreme conditions and tolerance to cool weather.

HadleyCM3 -A2HadleyCM3 -A2: The Chosen : The Chosen Scenario and ModelScenario and Model

IPCC(2001)

Methodologies for Climatic DataMethodologies for Climatic Data

AnalysisAnalysisArcticRIMSArcticRIMS

25*25km EASE

HadleyCM3 –A2HadleyCM3 –A2

Contemporary Climatology

(1960-2002)

ArcticRIMS

Future A2 Climatology

(2020, 2050, 2080)

25*25km EASE

Statistical Downscaling

Inverse distance weighted

interpolation

+ Gridded fields from observed station

data

Resampled MODEL Climate Change Data

ArcticRIMSArcticRIMS

(Pan-Arctic Drainage System)(Pan-Arctic Drainage System)

25*25km EASE

Contemporary Climatology (1960-2002)

Gridded fields from observed station

data

2.5*3.75 degree (Coarse) Geographic

IPCC data distribution center

MODEL Global Climate Change Data

25*25km EASE

Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin

Current Gridded Temperature and Current Gridded Temperature and Precipitation Data derived from Precipitation Data derived from ArcticRIMS (1960-2002) + Climate ArcticRIMS (1960-2002) + Climate Change Data From HadleyCM3 (A2) Change Data From HadleyCM3 (A2) Future Pan-Arctic Climate ScenariosFuture Pan-Arctic Climate Scenarios

*climate was looked at using monthly climatology's

=

Growing Degree DaysGrowing Degree Days (GDD)

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

Temperature Source: RIMS (Topographically Adjusted

(1960-2002)

GDD = Sum of temperature for all days above a given base temperature (0c).

*According to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and MSU (Montana State University) it takes 1600 GDD for Spring Wheat to reach maturity using a 0C base.

*Wheat was used the representative crop for

northern latitudes in this study because of its

adaptability to extreme conditions and tolerance

to cool weather

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

1960-2002

2020 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

2050 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

2080 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

1960-2002

2020 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

2050 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

2080 A2

GDD (C)

0

500

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

3000

4000

Potential Wheat Growing Area Potential Wheat Growing Area Based Only on Minimum Based Only on Minimum

Temperature Requirements Temperature Requirements

2080 Area

1980 Area

Potential New Area

Future Increase of Potential Pan-Arctic cropland (new 2080/1980)

New Area as Percent of Current Global Cropland*

Potentialy Suitable Cropland

Unsuitable

20801980

* Global cropland= 22.1mill/sq/km (Ramankuttey and Foley 1999)

15,900,000

7,400,000

8,500,000

114%

38%

Areas (km2)

Potential Cropland Area

Addition of Soil ConstraintsAddition of Soil ConstraintsUsing FAO guidelines most areas with sever soil drainage and or depth constraints were taken out of potential crop land calculations. In Addition wetlands and open bodies of water were further considered as areas unsuitable for agriculture.

Potentialy Suitable Cropland

Unsuitable

20801980

Potential Cropland Area

2080 Constraints

4,100,000

6,700,000

2,600,000

63%

Total Area 2080

New Area

Future increase of Pan Arctic Cropland

New Potential Area as Percent of Current Global Cropland

(km2)

Temp

Soil

None

Total Area 1980

Potential Cropland Area

11%

7,400,000

15,900,000

8,500,000

114%

38%

Without soil constraints

Is There Enough Water?Is There Enough Water?Solar Radiation

Wind Speed

Soil Moisture Availability

TemperatureTemperature

Humidity

Cloud cover

Length of Growing Season

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Human consumption

IrrigationRivers

Rooting depth

Snow Pack

AETAET

PETPET

Change in Precipitation (mm) June, July, August (2080-1980)

-40 -

-20 -

-5 -

5 -

20 -

40 -

75 -

125 -

Water AvailabilityWater Availability

(1980- 2006)

2080

Total Precipitation (mm) June, July, August

(mm)

50 -

100 -

150 -

200 -

250 -

300 -

350 -

Annual increase in Precipitation over Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (1980-2080)

is 100mm

Vegetation Class (2000)

Change in (AET/PET) 1980-2080

Polar Desert -0.05

Tundra -0.09

Forest/Tundra -0.11

Taiga/Boreal -0.12

Grassland, Steppe and Shrubland -0.24

Deciduous and Mixed Forest -0.17

Change in Water Stress (AET/PET) Change in Water Stress (AET/PET) between 1980 and 2080between 1980 and 2080

Drier

Potential Vegetation Map

Wetter

Water AvailabilityWater AvailabilityExtreme Water StressExtreme Water Stress (AET/PET) <.45 (AET/PET) <.45

Not suitable

Potential growth

1980 Water Stress <.45

2080 Water Stress <.45

Preliminary Results for loss due to extreme water stress

Areas under extreme water stress increase nearly threefold from contemporary time to 2080

Majority of new areas under extreme water stress will be in areas considered suitable for growth in 1980. (Central Asia)

Areas under extreme water stress increase nearly threefold from contemporary time to 2080

Majority of new areas under extreme water stress will be in areas considered suitable for growth in 1980. (Central Asia)

1980

2080

2080 new areas of Under “extreme” water stress

Potential of global current cropland lost due to future water constraints

500,000

1,420,000

920,000

-4%

(km2)

Potentially loss of 25% current cropland

Not suitable

Potential growth

1980 Water Stress <.45

2080 Water Stress <.45

4,100,000

6,700,000

2,600,000

N/A

69%

Total Area 1980

Summary of Potential Cropland Area Change

11%

7,400,000

15,900,000

8,500,000

N/A

114%

38%

Without soil constraints

Total Area 2080

New Area

Potential Area loss

Future increase of Pan-Arctic Cropland

Potential Area increase as Percent of current Global Cropland

3,600,000

5,780,000

2,180,000

-920,000

40%

6%

With soil constraints

Water and soil constraints (AET/PET <0.45)

Conclusion & Future StudiesConclusion & Future Studies

Conclusions-Conclusions-• Based on only temperature requirements areas with enough accumulated

temperature to support crop growth in the Pan-Arctic are going to increase dramatically according to the HadleyCM3-A2 Model.

• Adding soil constraints greatly reduces the potential crop growing area estimates. In Western Canada, northern expansion appears to be limited due to soil constraints not temperature.

• Areas that show greatest drying occur in areas of current crop growth.• Water limits further constrain potential crop growth areas and could greatly

reduce areas under current cultivation.

Future Studies-Future Studies-• Bring more models and future climate scenarios into analysis.• Perform regional studies that combine crop models in areas where potential

change in yield is high (central Asia, Russia). • Further explore full hydrological cycle with potential future irrigation and

human water use in the Pan-Arctic drainage system to see how much agriculture a changing arctic could support.

• Dr. Richard B. Lammers• Stanley Glidden• Mike Routhier• Dr. Charles J. Vörösmarty • Dr. George Hurtt• Mike Rawlins• Dominik Wisser• Dr. Steve Frolking• The Rest of the R&D Crew

A Special Thanks to:A Special Thanks to: