apan’s fuel cell and hydrogen commercialization strategy j apan’s fuel cell and hydrogen...

Japan’s Fuel Cell and Hydrogen

Commercialization Strategy

Noriko Hikosaka Behling

Fuel Cell Seminar

November 10-13, 2014

www.norikobehling.com

Copyright 2014 by Noriko Behling 2

Presentation Contents

•Japan’s Government Policy•Fuel Cell Commercialization•Stationary Fuel Cells•Fuel Cell Vehicles

•Government Strategy for Hydrogen Society•Roadmap•R&D Budget and Subsidies

•Future Outlook

Copyright 2014 by Noriko Behling

Japan Formed its fuel Cell and Hydrogen Policy Framework in 1999 Government Policy Program supported by Japanese Diet, Prime Minister, government ministries, industry, and academia 産官学連携体制

Fuel Cell

Commercialization

Advisory Group

Government Policy Framework

Fuel Cell

Commercialization

Conference of Japan

(FCCJ)

Collaborate

Advise/Counsel

Industry researchers

199 University-Industry Collaborative Research Centers established by 2013; created about 2,000 venture companies

University researchers

Conducting long-term

collaborative research

Project Manager

All researchers stationed on

campus


Fuel Cell Commercialization Advisory Group

The Committee consisted of 28 distinguished representatives from academia, industries, and public institutions.


Government Fuel Cell Roadmaps: Stationary Power

$80,000

$7,000-8,000 $5,000-6,000

Small-Scale Residential CHP Fuel Cell System: ENE-FARM Dissemination Scenario

2016


Government Subsidies for ENE-FARM Stationary Fuel Cell Units

FY 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Apr-Jul 2011

Oct 2011- Jan 2012

Initial Budget

Supple-mental Budget

Subsidy (per unit)

$14,000

$13,000 $10,500 $8,500 $7,000

$5,000 $4,500

PEFC: $3,800SOFC: $4,300

Total Subsidy Budget

$61 million

$67.7 million

$86 million

$50 million

$90 million

$250.5 million $200 million

ENE-FARM Subsidy per Unit and Total Budget

JX System(SOFC) Aisin System (SOFC)


Government Sponsored Residential Fuel Cell Demonstration

2005 Phase 1

2005 Phase 2

2006 2007 2008

Deployment 175 305 777 930 1120

100

300

500

700

900

1100

Units

Total Installations= 3,307 units

定置用燃料電池大規模実証研究事業 , FY2005-2008

Astomos Energy, Osaka Gas, Seibu Gas, JX Nippon Oil and Energy, Tokyo Gas, Toho Gas

Stationary Fuel Cell Demonstration Project

8

ENE-FARM Commercialization


Japanese residential deployment: 104,472 units (as of Sept 2014)

Subsidies to end in March 2017 but support for R&D and standardization for cost reduction will continue

Data from Advanced Cogeneration and Energy Utilization Center Japan A.C.E.J, コジェネ財団 , as of Sept 2014

Company Overseas Activities

Panasonic Joint Venture with Viessmann (Germany) perhaps in April 2014

Toshiba Joint venture with Baxi Innotech (Germany) in March 2014; Preparatory joint efforts underway with Korean heating appliance manufacturers

JX Nippon Oil and Energy

Joint efforts with a Korean gas company and a fuel cell development center in North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany

Aisin Seiki Supplied power module to Bosch (Germany) for exhibit; Demonstration operation in Ene-Field Project (Europe) in 2014

Possible Overseas Opportunities

FY2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 Sept

Units 4997 6469 13460 24517 33517 21512

2,500

7,500

12,500

17,500

22,500

27,500

32,500

37,500

ENE-FARM Installation


ENE-FARM Commercialization (2)As of October 1, 2014, ENE-FARM sold more than 100,000 units.Plans to sell 1.4 million units by 2020 and 5.3 million units by 2030.

10

Government Fuel Cell Roadmaps:Fuel Cell Vehicles


Fuel Cell Commercialization Conference of Japan (FCCJ) 2010


Prime Minister’s Office Plays A Major Role

In 2010, Prime Minister’s Office announced Next Generation Vehicle 2010, which calls for up to 1% of vehicles on the road to be fuel cell vehicles by 2020 and up to 3 percent by 2030.

2020 2030

Conventional vehicles 50-80% 30-50%

Next generation vehicles 20-50% 50-70%

Hybrid vehicles 20-30% 30-40%

Electric vehicles/Plug-in hybrid vehicles

15-20% 20-30%

Fuel cell vehicles ~1% ~3%

Clean diesel vehicles ~5% 5-10%


Prime Minister’s Office Plays A Major Role (2)

2012 Statement from Prime Minister’s Office identifies need for breakthroughs to achieve full scale fuel cell vehicle commercialization (red font is original text)•We need technology breakthroughs and hydrogen infrastructure

to succeed in full-scale fuel cell vehicle commercialization (diffusion)• To break through the big wall of fuel cell development, it is

indispensable that we deploy the entire national strength of the government, academia, and industry and tackle R&D to attain ground-breaking basic technology• The next generation vehicles must cut cost of fuel cells to 1/100th

of today’s cost and achieve sufficient durability and hydrogen storage technology by 2030• In addition to technology development, Japan needs to define

clear hydrogen energy policy to moving to hydrogen energy


Next Generation Vehicles 　次世代自動車 Eligible for Clean Energy Vehicles Introduction Promotion Subsidies クリーンエネルギー自動車等導入促進対策費補助金 ($300 million for FY2014 and again for FY2015)

Fuel Cell Vehicles: Government Subsidies


Fuel Cell Vehicle CommercializationThree Japanese Automakers Announced Market Entry in 2015, 2017


Fuel Cell Vehicle Commercialization (2)

Source: Toyota website, 2014

Toyota Vice President Mitsuhisa Kato stated “FCV is our proposition to the new mobility society, a long, long future challenge.” (25 June 2014)

“Toyota FCV Concept” Compact, Light Weight, Two High Pressure Hydrogen Tanks (70 MPa) Power Density: 3kW/l; Total Output: 100kW; Driving Range: about

435 miles; Refueling Time: about 3 Minutes; Starting below 30 °C



1/90th

Fuel Cell System Cost

Further cost down

Solutions to engineering

issues

Cost downInnovations in

design, materials and manufacturing

Economies of scale

Limited Introductions Launch Mature Market

Major Cost Reduction to 1/90th Achieved;Further Cost Reduction to 1/90th Targeted to Achieve

1/100th For Full-scale Commercialization

Toyota Plans to Achieve 1/100th Cost Reduction

1/90th



Power Density: 3kW/l; Total Output: 100kW; Driving Range: 498 miles; Fueling time: 5 minutes; Passengers: 5 people

Jointly with GM, Honda plans to develop more compact, lighter, more efficient and lower cost FCVs by 2020

Honda’s FCX Clarity has been available to lease since 2008

“Honda FCV”

2008 Honda FCX Clarity

2013 Honda FCEV Concept



“Nissan to Enter Market by 2017”• In 2002, Nissan unveiled Nissan X-Trail FCHV-hybrid• In 2009, Nissan said it would cancel hydrogen car R&D, but in

January 2011 it announced the launch of FCEVs and development of a hydrogen supply infrastructure in Japan• In January 2013, Daimler, Ford and Nissan under an Alliance

with Renault, signed an agreement for joint development of a common fuel cell system by 2017

Nissan Terra SUV concept unveiled in 2013 Next Generation Fuel Cell Stack released in 2011



$ Bil 8.9 9.6 9 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.1 9.1

Toyota invested $9 billion in 2014; Spends $1 million per hour on R&D Honda Invested $6.4 billion in R&D in

2014; 5.4 percent of its Net Sales

Honda R&D Expenses and Percentage of Net Sales



GM Honda Toyota Samsung Ford

2002-2013 Fuel Cell/Hybrid/EV Patents 906 828 783 435 234

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2002-2013 Cumulative Fuel Cell/Hybrid/EV Patents by Top 5 Assignees

Pate

nts

Source: CEPGI, Heslin Rothenberg Farley & Mesiti P.C.

Honda and Toyota among the Top Five Fuel Cell/Hybrid/EV Patent Assignees

21Copyright 2014 by Noriko Behling

In December 2013, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategy Council 水素・燃料電池戦略協議会 established

On 11 April, 2014, the Japanese Cabinet adopted the Energy Basic Plan, which designated hydrogen to be a core secondary energy of the future (hydrogen, electricity and heat)

FCCJ

Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategy Council水素・燃料電池戦略協議会• Advises Director

General of Agency for Natural Resources and Energy on hydrogen and energy issues

• Creates Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategic Roadmap in June 2014

Fuel Cell

Commercialization

Advisory Group

Government Launches Strategy for Hydrogen Society

Fuel Cell

Commercialization

Conference of Japan

Collaborate

Replaced by

22

Government Policy (2)Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategy Council Membership

浅見　孝雄　　　日産自動車（株）　専務執行役員　　有賀　敬記　　　大陽日酸 ( 株 ) 　常務取締役　伊勢　清貴　　　トヨタ自動車（株）　取締役・専務役員　市江　正彦　　　 ( 株 ) 日本政策投資銀行　取締役常務執行役員　上羽　尚登　　　岩谷産業 ( 株 ) 　取締役副社長　内田　幸雄　　　 JX 日鉱日石エネルギー( 株 ) 　取締役副社長執行役員　小川　洋　　　　福岡県知事柏木　孝夫　　　東京工業大学　特命教授　上地　崇夫　　　千代田化工建設 ( 株 ) 　常務執行役員　亀山　秀雄　　　 ( 一社 ) 水素エネルギー協会　会長　久德　博文　　　大阪ガス ( 株 ) 　代表取締役副社長執行役員　


久米　雄二　　　電気事業連合会　専務理事　倉田　健児　　　 ( 独 ) 新エネルギー・産業技術総合開発機構　副理事長　小林　裕明　　　東京ガス（株）　常務執行役員　崎田　裕子　　　ジャーナリスト・環境カウンセラーＮＰＯ法人持続可能な社会をつくる元気ネット　理事長　佐々木　一成　　九州大学　次世代燃料電池産学連携研究センター長　髙田　廣　　　　川崎重工業 ( 株 ) 　代表取締役副社長　中尾　正文　　　旭化成 ( 株 ) 　取締役上席執行役員　福尾　幸一　　　本田技研工業 ( 株 ) 　常務執行役員　前川　治　　　　（株）東芝　執行役上席常務　馬渕　洋三郎　　三菱重工業 ( 株 ) 　執行役員　吉田　守　　　　パナソニック ( 株 ) 　常務取締役　渡辺　政廣　　　山梨大学　燃料電池ナノ材料研究センター長

水素　燃料電池戦略協議会委員

23 Noteworthy Committee

Members

3 University Professors

3 Automakers

3 Industrial Gas Companies

1 Oil Company

2 Heavy Industries Companies

1 Chemical Company

2 Electronics Manufacturers

2 Gas Utilities

1 Electricity Utilities

1 Bank1 NEDO Representative

1 Journalist

1 Prefectural Governor

1 Construction company


• Systems will be formulated on a large scale, accompanied by long term changes in the current social structure. Imbalance between supply and demand will be resolved, while academia, government and industry will collaborate to engage in measures for utilizing hydrogen.• To achieve these goals, Japan will use the following step-by-step process:

・ Phase 1 Dramatic expansion of hydrogen use: Dramatically expand use of stationary fuel cells and fuel cell vehicles, leading to acquisition of a global market in the field of hydrogen and fuel cells, in which Japan leads;

・ Phase 2 Full-fledged introduction of hydrogen power generation/Establishment of a large-scale supply: Widening scope of hydrogen sources, so as to establish a new secondary energy structure in which hydrogen will be added to existing resources

・ Phase 3 Establishment of zero-carbon emission hydrogen supply: Use technology for manufacturing hydrogen with a CCS process, or make use of hydrogen derived from renewable energy resources, so as to establish a zero-carbon-emission system for supplying hydrogen throughout the manufacturing process.

Summary of Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

On 23 June, 2014, a Strategic Roadmap for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells drawn up by the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategy Council.


Hydrogen Society: Road Map Overviewhttp://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2014/0624_04.html


Hydrogen Society: Summary for All Technologies


Hydrogen Society: Stationary Fuel Cells


Hydrogen Society: Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Refueling Stations


Hydrogen Society: Power Generation and Fuel Transport


Hydrogen Society: Hydrogen Refueling Stations

Source: METI, GOJ, US Commerce Service, Japan

Hydrogen Refueling Stations

Current

Future

Current Hydrogen Station Cost : US $5-6 Million

Japan aims at halving the cost by 2020


Hydrogen Society: Government Regulations and Incentives

Source: METI

Government Deregulation


Hydrogen Society: Government Budget

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Re-quest

Japanese Fuel Cell Budget

51 58 55 47 43 94 117 220 307 329 354 340 306 289 230 175 168 202 397.7

349.4

401

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425 Japanese Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Budget

$ M

illio

n

Major Item FY2014 Budget FY2015 Request

R&DBudget

Hydrogen Utilization Technology R&D 水素利用技術研究開発事業 $32.5 million $45 million

New Hydrogen Resource Supply Chain Development 未利用エネルギー由来水素サプライチェーン構築実証事業

$38 million

Innovative Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transport Technology Development 革新的水素エネルギー貯蔵・輸送等技術開発

$16 million $17.5 million

Subsid-ies Installation of Hydrogen Refueling Stations 水素供給設備整備事業費補助金 $72 million $110 million

ENE-FARM Subsidies $200 million $150 million

Additional Funding

Clean Energy Vehicles Introduction Promotion Subsidies (EV, PHV, Clean Diesel, and FCF) クリーンエネルギー自動車等導入促進対策費補助金

$300 million $300 million


Prospects for Japan’s Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Society Plans

History provides cautionary examples:1980s – Fifth Generation Computer1990s – Japan’s cell phones and the “Galapagos Syndrome”

Nonetheless, Japan has few alternatives and is strongly motivated to succeed

Thus, at least, some elements of Hydrogen Society will be successful

Will Japan succeed in the Hydrogen Society Strategy?

apan’s fuel cell and hydrogen commercialization strategy j apan’s fuel cell and hydrogen...

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