ANTICIPATING A WORLD

UNDER DURESS: DOES

EUROPE HAVE A GAME PLAN?

Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

Economics: • Economic slowdown, commodity crunch, growing discontent against economic and trade policies

Political: • Readjustment of powers and less support for international law

Demographics: • Unprecedented level of migratory pressures (60 M displaced people)

Public opinion: • Rise of protest votes in western democracies and increased tensions in the Middle East

A WORLD UNDER DURESS Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

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FOUR INDICATORS

More integration but also more challenges: • UN system attractive (members,

applications for UNSC) and challenged (ICC, Law of the Sea), "Top X" (G7, G20) and like-minded

groups: • BRICS, MIKTA, Shanghai C.O., Progress

and limitation • regional integration progresses at slower

pace than new challenges (EU, ASEAN, African Union).

WHERE STANDS THE WORLD ORDER? Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

USA-China cannot work as a duopol at global level because

• there are too many other players to allow a cooperative duopol, • there is no ideological confrontation which can divide the world in two blocs.

THE ILLUSION OF A G2 Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

• GDP (trillion USD, ppp): China (19.7), EU (19.2), USA (18) (India (8); Germany (3.8))

• POPULATION (M) : China (1380), India (1270), EU (510), USA (320)

• MOBILE TELEPHONE SUBSCRIBERS (bn): China (1.3), India (0.95), EU (0.63), (R.I. : 0.319, USA: 0.317)

• MILITARY SPENDING (% GDP); USA (4.35), India (2.40), China (1.99), EU (1.3) 1st trade power, 1st provider and destination of FDI, 1st provider (50%+ of dev. Aid), 1st provider of Humanitarian assistance.

TOWARDS A G3? EU-USA-CHINA? Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

Presented in June 2016, just after the Brexit referendum

Renews the EU strategic approach, 13 years after the 2003 EU security strategy

Has been welcomed and endorsed by EU member states

THE EU GAME PLAN = THE EU GLOBAL STRATEGY!

Delegation of the European Union to Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam

THE EU GLOBAL STRATEGY

• A fragile world calls - for a more confident and responsive European Union, - for an outward and forward looking European foreign and

security policy.

• The EU's objective is to act united on the world stage - to keep citizens safe, - preserve EU interests, - uphold EU values.

EU INTERESTS & PRINCIPLES FOR ENGAGEMENT

EU interests set out in the EUGS

• Promote peace and guarantee the security of its citizens and territory

• Advance the prosperity of its people,

• foster the resilience of its democracies,

• champion a rules-based global order.

EU GLOBAL STRATEGY PRINCIPLES

Principles guiding EU external action

• Unity of purpose between Member States and across institutions, and unity in action by implementing coherent policies,

• Engagement in a more connected world, & co-shape the rules that govern it,

• Responsibility in addressing the root causes of conflict and poverty,

• Partnerships with states, regional bodies and international organisations for a more peaceful and prosperous world.

THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Europeans must take greater responsibility of the EU Security

• EU taking greater responsibility for its security and defence in the face of terrorism, hybrid threats, economic volatility, climate change and energy insecurity,

• Step up investment in and solidarity on counter-terrorism, increase focus on cyber security, energy security and enhance strategic communications,

• The EU to play its role fully in responding to crises, building capacity of partners and protecting Europe,

• Close cooperation with EU partners: NATO, United Nations, African Union, OSCE, ASEAN and key bilateral partners such as the US,

• EU will invest in a resilient European Security Order, a peaceful and prosperous Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa, a closer Atlantic, a connected Asia and a cooperative Arctic.

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

The EU is committed to a global order based on international law, ensuring human rights, sustainable development and lasting access to the global commons. • Aspiration to transform rather than to simply preserve

the existing system. The EU will strive for a strong UN as the bedrock of the multilateral order and for globally coordinated responses,

• A commitment to global governance must translate in the determination to reform the UN,

• The EU will seek to reform, implement, deepen, widen and develop multilateral institutions, agreements and norms

• Sustainable Development Goals will drive reform & implementation will be reference point for change across all internal and external policies,

• Believing in the UN means investing in it, notably in its peace-keeping, mediation, peacebuilding and humanitarian functions.

A CREDIBLE UNION

A stronger Union requires investing in security and defence as a matter of urgency

Making full use of existing capacities (EU battlegroups)

Imaginative new ways of working together: joint military and civilian planning: tackling human traffickers at sea, Sahel and Libya all require close coordination between the civilian and the military

Capacities: Work towards strong European Industrial base (European Defence Action Plan)

NATO, United Nations, African Union, OSCE, and key bilateral partners such as the USA •Support partners in conflict prevention & in crisis resolution (capacity building in security and defence sectors)

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FOUR CENTRAL ELEMENTS

COMMON SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY'S PAST MISSIONS

COMMON SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY'S ONGOING MISSIONS

4000 troops

EUROPEAN UNION & ASIA

In light of the economic weight that Asia represents for the EU – and vice versa – peace and stability in Asia are a prerequisite for the EU prosperity

• Establish free-trade agreements and expand partnerships, including on security,

• Maximise the potential of the ASEM and EU-ASEAN frameworks,

• Promote the respect for the Rule of Law and International Law, including the Law of

the Sea,

• Uphold freedom of navigation, encourage peaceful settlement of maritime disputes, help build maritime capacities and support an ASEAN-led regional security architecture,

• Deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism, anti-trafficking and migration,

• Promote human rights and support democratic transitions, • Promote non-proliferation in the Korean peninsula.

GENERAL PROVISIONS CONCERNING INDONESIA

• Establish deeper defence cooperation,

• Counter violent extremism: develop human rights-compliant anti-terrorism cooperation,

share best practices and joint programmes, broaden our partnerships with civil society, social actors, the private sector and the victims of terrorism and establish inter-religious and inter-cultural dialogue,

• Focus on cyber security,

• Enhance strategic communications.

A focus on security

THE EU GLOBAL STRATEGY: ENGAGING THE WORLD

Find out more on http://europa.eu/globalstrategy/

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