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Annual Crop Production Cotton Ginnings Grain Stocks January Crop Production Rice Stocks Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch January 12, 2021

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  • Annual Crop ProductionCotton Ginnings

    Grain StocksJanuary Crop Production

    Rice StocksWinter Wheat and Canola Seedings

    Executive Summary

    Lance Honig, ChiefCrops Branch

    January 12, 2021

  • Data Sources

    January 12, 2021

    December Ag Survey Sample Size = 77,706 November 28 - December 17

    Off-Farm Grain Stocks ~8,400 Facilities November 28 - December 21

    Cotton Ginnings 560 Gins January 4-6

    Objective Yield

    Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

    Objective Measurement

    Florida Citrus

    FSA

    Certified Acres

    FSA and RMA

    Failed Acres

    Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs

    submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.

    Acres reported as "failed" to either the Farm Service Agency (FSA) or the Risk

    Management Agency (RMA) are considered minimum levels of abandonment.

    Operator Reported

    Surveys

    Sample Size = 3,930 Prior to Harvest

    Field Surveys1,814 Groves December 8-22

  • December 2020 Agricultural SurveySample Sizes

    January 12, 2021

    Alaska = 183

  • 8%8%

    7%

    7%

    7%63%

    Principal Crops AcresBy State

    Iowa Kansas Illinois Texas North Dakota Other

    2020 Principal CropsPlanted and Harvested Acreage

    January 12, 2021

    United States

    % Change from

    Previous Estimate

    % Change from

    Previous Season

    Top 5 States - By Planted Acreage

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres)

    Iowa 24,330 ↑ 1.7 23,713 ↑ 0.4

    Kansas 23,469 ↑ 0.7 22,651 ↑ 0.8

    Illinois 22,720 ↑ 5.2 22,485 ↑ 6.0

    Texas 21,872 ↑ 1.7 14,999 ↓ 10.2

    North Dakota 20,903 ↓ 10.0 20,320 ↓ 4.3

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres)

    Planted Harvested

    291,666

    % ∆ PY % ∆ PYPlanted Harvested

    2.3 2.4

    310,107

    0.6 N/A

    Planted acres are used for corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, other spring wheat,

    rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso

    millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted.

  • Principal Crop AcresUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Million Acres

    314.3

    324.3 324.9326.7

    319.0 319.0 318.3 319.3

    303.1

    310.1

    292.7

    306.9303.8

    308.4304.8 305.8

    301.8299.2

    284.8

    291.7

    270

    280

    290

    300

    310

    320

    330

    340

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Planted Harvested

  • 2020 Principal Crops PlantedThousand Acres and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • 2020 CornAcreage, Yield, and Production

    January 12, 2021

    United States% Change from

    Previous Estimate

    % Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

    Iowa 13,600 ↑ 0.7 12,900 ↓ 1.1 178 ↓ 10.1 2,296,200 ↓ 11.1

    Illinois 11,300 ↑ 7.6 11,100 ↑ 8.8 192 ↑ 6.1 2,131,200 ↑ 15.4

    Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,890 ↑ 0.8 181 ↓ 0.5 1,790,090 ↑ 0.3

    Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,510 ↑ 3.6 192 ↑ 11.0 1,441,920 ↑ 15.0

    Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 187 ↑ 10.7 981,750 ↑ 20.5

    % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

    Planted Harvested Yield Production

    90,819 82,467 172.0 14,182,479

    ↓ ↓

    ↑ ↑

    Top 5 States - By Production

    1.2

    Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

    0.2

    1.4 ↑ 2.7 ↑ 4.1

    0.1 ↓ 2.2 ↓ 2.2

    Of the total acres harvested, 330,000 acres were reported

    as remaining to be harvested when the survey was conducted.

  • 108.6

    131.5

    100.7

    138.6

    113.5

    127.1126.7

    134.4133.8136.9138.2

    129.3

    142.2

    160.3

    147.9149.1150.7

    153.3

    164.4

    152.6

    146.8

    123.1

    158.1

    171.0168.4

    174.6176.6176.4

    167.5

    172.0

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    180

    190

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    Corn YieldUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Bushels per Acre

  • 2020 Corn YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • Corn ProductionUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Billion Bushels

    12.3

    10.8

    13.814.2

    13.6

    15.114.6 14.3

    13.614.2

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  • 2020 U.S. Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    14.0

    14.2

    14.4

    14.6

    14.8

    15.0

    15.2

    15.4

    August September October November Final

    Billion Bushels

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • 2020 SoybeansAcreage, Yield, and Production

    January 12, 2021

    Of the total acres harvested, 494,000 acres were reported

    as remaining to be harvested when the survey was conducted.

    United States% Change from

    Previous Estimate

    % Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

    Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 59.0 ↑ 9.3 604,750 ↑ 13.6

    Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 53.0 ↓ 3.6 493,960 ↓ 1.5

    Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 49.0 ↑ 11.4 359,170 ↑ 20.6

    Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 58.0 ↑ 13.7 329,440 ↑ 20.5

    Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,160 ↑ 6.6 57.0 ↓ 2.6 294,120 ↑ 3.9

    Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

    ↑ 9.8

    83,084 82,318 50.2 4,135,477

  • 34.2

    37.6

    32.6

    41.4

    35.3

    37.6

    38.9 38.9

    36.6

    38.1

    39.6

    38.0

    33.9

    42.243.1 42.9

    41.7

    39.7

    44.043.5

    42.0

    40.0

    44.0

    47.548.0

    51.9

    49.3

    50.6

    47.4

    50.2

    29

    34

    39

    44

    49

    54

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    Soybean YieldUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Bushels per Acre

  • 2020 Soybean YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • Soybean ProductionUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Billion Bushels

    3.10 3.04

    3.36

    3.93 3.93

    4.304.41 4.43

    3.55

    4.14

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  • 2020 U.S. Soybean ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    4.05

    4.10

    4.15

    4.20

    4.25

    4.30

    4.35

    4.40

    4.45

    4.50

    August September October November Final

    Billion Bushels

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • 2020 CottonAcreage, Yield, and Production

    January 12, 2021

    United States% Change from

    Previous Estimate

    % Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

    Texas 6,838 ↓ 3.2 3,631 ↓ 31.0 628 ↑ 8.7 4,748 ↓ 25.1

    Georgia 1,190 ↓ 15.0 1,180 ↓ 14.5 887 ↓ 6.9 2,180 ↓ 20.4

    Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7

    Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,097 ↓ 1.3 1,200 ↓ 26.0

    Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 793 ↓ 14.5 735 ↓ 28.5

    Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

    12,093 8,702 825 14,953

    ↓ 6.2

    ↓ 12.0 ↓ 25.1 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 24.9

    ↓ 0.2 ↓ 3.4 ↓ 2.9

    Top 5 States - By Production

    Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

  • 652

    700

    606

    708

    537

    705

    673

    625607

    632

    705

    665

    730

    855

    831814

    879

    813

    776

    812

    790

    892

    822838

    766

    867

    905

    882

    823 825

    480

    530

    580

    630

    680

    730

    780

    830

    880

    930

    980

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    Cotton YieldUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Pounds per Acre

  • 2020 Cotton YieldPounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • Cotton ProductionUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Million Bales

    15.6

    17.3

    12.9

    16.3

    12.9

    17.2

    20.9

    18.4

    19.9

    15.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  • January 12, 2021

    2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production

    Unit Unit

    Canola Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.5 ↓ 1.3 ↑ 9.8 ↑ 8.4

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.5 ↓ 6.3 ↑ 8.4 ↑ 1.6

    Chickpeas Lb Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 6.2 ↑ 5.5 ↑ 4.1 ↑ 9.9

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 40.5 ↓ 35.0 ↑ 5.0 ↓ 31.7

    Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.2 ↓ 0.4 ↓ 5.4 ↓ 5.8

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 34.8 ↑ 42.8 ↑ 11.2 ↑ 58.8

    Dry Edible Peas Lb Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate NC ↑ 2.5 ↑ 14.4 ↑ 17.3

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.3 ↓ 7.0 ↑ 5.2 ↓ 2.1

    Flaxseed Bu Bu

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 14.1 ↓ 9.8 N/A N/A

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 18.4 ↑ 4.2 ↓ 2.5 ↑ 1.4

    21,733

    Production(1,000 Units)

    3,454,950

    4,273

    32,963

    1,9311,7891,825

    Yield(Units per Acre)

    5,706

    270 263

    1,740 1,677

    999 973

    Harvested(1,000 Acres)

    Planted(1,000 Acres)

    1,625

    1,966

    2,234

    19.3305 296

  • January 12, 2021

    2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production

    Unit Unit

    All Hay Ton Ton

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.4 ↓ 0.7

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 0.4 ↓ 1.2 ↓ 1.6

    Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.7 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 0.8

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 3.1 ↓ 0.3 ↓ 3.3

    Other Hay Ton Ton

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.1 ↓ 1.4 ↓ 1.7

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 0.9 ↓ 1.0 ↓ 0.3

    Hops Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.9 ↓ 10.7 ↓ 11.4

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 3.7 ↓ 10.7 ↓ 7.3

    Lentils Lb Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.9 ↑ 5.8 ↑ 7.8 ↑ 13.9

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 8.6 ↑ 20.9 ↑ 15.4 ↑ 39.5

    N/A 16,230 3.27 53,067

    N/A 36,008 2.05 73,745

    Planted Harvested Yield Production

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

    N/A 52,238 2.43 126,812

    N/A 58.6 1,770 103,810

    528 514 1,442 7,411

  • January 12, 2021

    2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production

    Unit Unit

    Mustard Seed Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.0 ↓ 1.7 N/A N/A

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 1.0 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 26.8 ↑ 28.6

    Peanuts Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.1 ↓ 0.5 ↓ 7.3 ↓ 7.7

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.3 ↓ 3.5 ↑ 12.2

    Peppermint Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A N/A N/A N/A

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 4.4 ↓ 4.8 ↓ 8.6

    Potatoes Cwt Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.2 ↓ 0.2 ↓ 0.2 ↓ 0.3

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 4.4 ↓ 2.5 NC ↓ 2.4

    Proso Millet Bu Bu

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 19.2 N/A N/A N/A

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 20.4 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 46.8 ↓ 44.5

    Planted Harvested Yield Production

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

    N/A 50.1 99 4,984

    921 914 453 414,248

    97.0 91.4 895 81,770

    1,664 1,616 3,796 6,133,900

    609 484 19.0 9,210

  • January 12, 2021

    January 2021 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production

    Unit Unit

    Rapeseed Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 10.4 ↓ 14.4 N/A N/A

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.9 ↓ 2.9 ↓ 8.8 ↓ 11.4

    Rice Lb Cwt

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓

  • January 12, 2021

    2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production

    Unit Unit

    Sugarbeets Ton Ton

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.5 ↓ 0.7 ↓ 1.0

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.6 ↑ 16.5 ↑ 0.7 ↑ 17.3

    Sugarcane Ton Ton

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.7 ↑ 0.8 ↑ 1.5

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 3.0 ↑ 7.7 ↑ 11.0

    Sunflower Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.2 ↑ 2.7 ↑ 3.5 ↑ 6.2

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 27.3 ↑ 32.9 ↑ 14.7 ↑ 52.5

    Tobacco Lb Lb

    % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 1.3 ↓ 0.9 ↑ 0.5

    % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 12.8 ↓ 4.6 ↓ 16.8

    N/A 198 1,966 389,413

    1,162 1,142 29.4 33,618

    Planted Harvested Yield Production

    (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

    N/A 941 37.7 35,457

    1,719 1,666 1,790 2,982,410

  • January 12, 2021

    2021 Winter WheatPlanted Acreage

    United States% Change from

    Previous Estimate

    % Change from

    Previous Season

    Top 5 States

    (1,000 Acres)

    Kansas 7,300 ↑ 10.6

    Texas 4,800 ↓ 2.0

    Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 1.2

    Colorado 1,950 ↑ 2.6

    Washington 1,750 ↓ 2.8

    Planted(1,000 Acres)

    % ∆ PY

    31,991

    N/A

    Planted

    ↑ 5.223%

    15%

    13%6%6%

    37%

    2021 Winter Wheat Planted AcresBy State

    Kansas Texas Oklahoma Colorado Washington Other

  • Winter Wheat AcresUnited States

    January 12, 2021

    Million Acres

    40.9

    43.242.4

    39.7

    36.1

    32.7 32.531.5

    30.432.0

    34.6

    32.7 32.3 32.3

    30.2

    25.3 24.7 24.623.0

    20.0

    24.0

    28.0

    32.0

    36.0

    40.0

    44.0

    48.0

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Planted Harvested

  • 2021 Winter Wheat Planted AcresThousand Acres and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • 2021 U.S. Winter Wheat Planted AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    30.0

    30.5

    31.0

    31.5

    32.0

    32.5

    33.0

    December March June Final

    Million Acres

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 All WheatStocks

    United States% Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

    Kansas 288,027 ↓ 27.0 10,000 ↓ 55.6 278,027 ↓ 25.2

    North Dakota 253,049 ↓ 5.8 172,000 ↓ 6.5 81,049 ↓ 4.4

    Montana 158,926 ↑ 0.7 116,000 ↓ 4.1 42,926 ↑ 16.5

    Washington 146,730 ↑ 14.4 12,000 ↑ 4.3 134,730 ↑ 15.4

    Oklahoma 113,240 ↓ 6.2 5,700 ↓ 20.8 107,540 ↓ 5.3

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

    Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    1,673,595 483,470 1,190,125

    ↓ 9.1 ↓ 6.9 ↓ 9.9

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

    17%

    15%

    9%

    9%7%

    43%

    December 1, 2020 All WheatStocks By State

    Kansas North Dakota Montana

    Washington Oklahoma Other

    29%

    71%

    December 1, 2020 All WheatStocks By Position

    On-Farm Off-Farm

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 All Wheat StocksUnited States

    3.14

    2.862.99

    2.852.62

    2.81

    3.28

    2.92 2.98 3.01 2.85

    2.45

    2.15 2.12

    1.87 1.912.10

    2.55

    2.272.39 2.35

    2.16

    1.93

    1.66 1.67

    1.47 1.53

    1.75

    2.08

    1.872.01

    1.841.67

    1.43

    1.20 1.231.06

    1.14

    1.37

    1.661.50

    1.591.42

    0.860.74 0.72

    0.590.75

    0.98

    1.181.10 1.08 1.03

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

    Billion Bushels

    Supply Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1

  • 2020 U.S. All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    1.55

    1.60

    1.65

    1.70

    1.75

    1.80

    1.85

    December

    Billion Bushels

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 CornStocks

    17%

    16%

    12%

    12%7%

    36%

    December 1, 2020 CornStocks By State

    Iowa Illinois Minnesota Nebraska Indiana Other

    62%

    38%

    December 1, 2020 CornStocks By Position

    On-Farm Off-Farm

    United States% Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

    Iowa 1,894,087 ↓ 11.7 1,190,000 ↓ 10.5 704,087 ↓ 13.6

    Illinois 1,848,879 ↑ 4.4 1,000,000 ↑ 7.5 848,879 ↑ 1.0

    Minnesota 1,340,901 ↑ 9.7 980,000 ↑ 6.5 360,901 ↑ 19.2

    Nebraska 1,314,335 ↓ 11.1 810,000 ↓ 13.8 504,335 ↓ 6.2

    Indiana 828,472 ↑ 10.7 580,000 ↑ 13.7 248,472 ↑ 4.2

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 Corn StocksUnited States

    14.113.4

    11.7

    14.715.4 15.3

    16.9 16.9 16.515.8 16.1

    10.19.6

    8.0

    10.511.2 11.2

    12.4 12.611.9

    11.3 11.3

    6.526.02

    5.40

    7.017.75 7.82

    8.62 8.89 8.617.95

    3.673.15 2.77

    3.854.45 4.71

    5.23 5.30 5.20 5.00

    1.13 0.99 0.821.23

    1.73 1.742.29 2.14 2.22 1.92

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    20.0

    10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

    Billion Bushels

    Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1

  • 2020 U.S. Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    11.2

    11.4

    11.6

    11.8

    12.0

    12.2

    12.4

    December

    Billion Bushels

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 SoybeansStocks

    18%

    14%

    9%

    8%8%

    43%

    December 1, 2020 SoybeanStocks By State

    Illinois Iowa Minnesota Indiana Ohio Other

    45%

    55%

    December 1, 2020 SoybeanStocks By Position

    On-Farm Off-Farm

    United States% Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

    Illinois 535,669 ↓ 8.8 235,000 ↓ 11.3 300,669 ↓ 6.8

    Iowa 406,571 ↓ 20.8 160,000 ↓ 27.3 246,571 ↓ 15.9

    Minnesota 270,683 ↓ 7.8 140,000 ↓ 15.2 130,683 ↑ 1.7

    Indiana 248,500 ↓ 3.3 145,000 ↓ 3.3 103,500 ↓ 3.2

    Ohio 220,181 ↑ 3.7 115,000 NC 105,181 ↑ 8.1

    % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

    Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm

    (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

    2,933,322 1,308,500 1,624,822

    ↓ 9.8 ↓ 13.9 ↓ 6.2

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 Soybean StocksUnited States

    3.483.31 3.21

    3.50

    4.02 4.124.49

    4.71 4.87

    4.464.66

    2.28 2.37

    1.972.15

    2.532.71

    2.903.16

    3.75

    3.25

    2.93

    1.251.37

    1.00 0.99

    1.331.53

    1.74

    2.11

    2.73

    2.25

    0.62 0.670.43 0.41

    0.630.87 0.97

    1.22

    1.78

    1.38

    0.215 0.169 0.141 0.092 0.191 0.1970.302

    0.438

    0.909

    0.525

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

    Billion Bushels

    Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1

  • 2020 U.S. Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS

    January 12, 2021

    2.70

    2.80

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    3.20

    3.30

    December

    Billion Bushels

    Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 Rough RiceStocks

    49%

    28%

    10%

    5%5% 3%

    December 1, 2020 Rice StocksBy State

    Arkansas California Louisiana

    Missouri Texas Other

    30%

    70%

    December 1, 2020 Rice StocksBy Position

    On-Farm Off-Farm

    United States% Change from

    Previous Season

    (1,000 Cwt) (1,000 Cwt) (1,000 Cwt)

    Arkansas 66,090 ↑ 13.1 23,100 ↑ 26.2 42,990 ↑ 7.1

    California 37,603 ↑ 3.5 3,530 ↑ 6.2 34,073 ↑ 3.2

    Louisiana 14,357 ↑ 22.3 6,500 ↑ 27.5 7,857 ↑ 18.4

    Missouri 6,779 ↑ 11.1 (D) (D)

    Texas 6,452 ↓ 11.8 (D) (D)

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

    Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    136,074 41,370 94,704

    ↑ 10.0 ↑ 23.0 ↑ 5.1

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm(1,000 Cwt) (1,000 Cwt) (1,000 Cwt)

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 Rough Rice StocksUnited States

    262

    211

    236220

    249236

    263

    217

    248

    224

    252

    173

    147 148134

    158145

    160

    120

    139

    124136

    120.6106.5 104.3

    89.0

    112.5 108.8 107.6

    83.4

    103.8

    86.171.4

    59.150.4

    71.364.3 66.3

    45.1

    63.6

    46.541.7 36.0 30.5 26.6

    42.8 38.7 38.823.9

    38.624.4

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

    Million Hundredweight

    Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Aug 1

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020 HayStocks

    United States% Change from

    Previous Season

    Top 5 States

    (1,000 Tons)

    Texas 6,400 ↑ 14.3

    Missouri 6,000 ↓ 13.0

    South Dakota 5,800 ↓ 7.2

    Kansas 5,000 ↓ 5.7

    Montana 4,800 ↓ 5.9

    Total% ∆ PY

    December 1

    84,020

    ↓ 0.6

    December 1

    Total(1,000 Tons)

    166

    152

    138149

    159 159 159153

    139 144147

    101.7

    89.7

    75.2

    89.4 92.294.9 95.9

    84.479.1

    84.5 84.0

    22.2 21.414.2

    19.224.5 25.2 24.4

    15.3 14.920.4

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

    Million Tons

    Supply Dec 1 May 1

    December 2020 Hay StocksUnited States

  • December 2020 Hay StocksThousand Tons and Percent Change from Previous Year

    January 12, 2021

  • January 12, 2021

    December 2020Stocks

    Unit

    Barley Bushels

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 7.9 ↓ 3.0 ↓ 14.0

    Chickpeas Hundredweight

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 15.9 ↓ 31.7 ↓ 8.5

    Dry Edible Peas Hundredweight

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 23.2 ↓ 37.5 ↑ 30.9

    Durum Wheat Bushels

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 4.9 ↑ 17.5 ↓ 28.7

    Lentils Hundredweight

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 4.8 ↓ 8.5 ↑ 3.3

    Oats Bushels

    % Change from Previous Year ↑ 7.0 ↑ 16.4 ↓ 1.0

    Sorghum Bushels

    % Change from Previous Year ↓ 12.5 ↓ 29.5 ↓ 10.2

    12,052

    60,011

    4,293

    4,317

    December 1 December 1 December 1

    Total On-Farm Off-Farm(1,000 Units) (1,000 Units) (1,000 Units)

    145,001

    5,785

    84,990

    1,492

    7,735

    39,000 22,250

    3,110 1,629

    28,830 28,848

    21,300 197,814

    61,250

    4,739

    57,678

    219,114

  • January 12, 2021

    January 2021 CitrusUtilized Production

    All Oranges

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.5

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 13.1

    Non-Valencia Oranges

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.3

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.5

    Valencia Oranges

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.1

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 7.9

    Grapefruit

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.4

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 5.4

    Lemons

    % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 11.2

    % Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.8

    Tangerines

    % Change from Previous Estimate NC

    % Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.7

    972

    4,534

    2,635

    1,899

    564

    1,036

    Production

    (1,000 Tons)

    11.6311.07

    9.379.03 8.73

    7.70

    6.08

    8.147.78

    7.11

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Million Tons

    All Citrus ProductionUnited States

    8.98

    8.27

    6.776.35

    6.09

    5.09

    3.88

    5.43 5.22

    4.53

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Million Tons

    All Orange ProductionUnited States

  • Selected Upcoming Reports

    January 12, 2021

    https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

    Census: Typology

    Cotton Ginnings

    Cattle on Feed

    Agricultural Prices

    Cattle

    Sheep and Goats

    Cotton System

    Fats & Oils

    Flour Milling

    Grain Crushings

    Cotton Ginnings

    Crop Production

    January 22

    January 29

    February 1

    February 9

    https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

  • USDA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM

    January 12, 2021

    Registration is Now Open to USDA's 97th Agricultural Outlook Forum!

    Building on Innovation: A Pathway to Resilience

    Join us for this virtual event on February 18-19, 2021The Forum is free to attend

    Register Today

    https://na.eventscloud.com/aof2021

  • #StatChat

    January 12, 2021

  • All Reports Available At

    www.nass.usda.gov

    For Questions

    (202) 720-2127(800) [email protected]

    http://www.nass.usda.gov/mailto:[email protected]