Military/Civilian Convergence: so what for freedom of manoeuvre?

Wil Wilson

www.aw2consulting.co.uk

wil@aw2consulting.co.uk

Message:

Technological and wider convergence in the face of emerging ‘megatrends’will see air forces competing with new actors in new ways

This will blur the distinction between Force Protection, Security, Safety,Business Continuity, Risk, Resilience, strategy and tactics, et al

Which will require air forces to review current boundary judgementsregarding how they structure themselves to manage freedom of manoeuvre(FoM) – in its widest sense.

Scope:

• Megatrends – definition

• Origins of the ideas

• Civ/Mil Convergence

• Boundary Judgements regarding the protection of FoM

MegatrendsPWC work on megatrends, reflects wider strategic futures work by, inter alia, CSIS and McKinsey. Broadly the megatrends comprise:

• Urbanisation, predominately to littoral megacities

• Disruption in economic generation and distribution

• Automation of low–medium skilled work and demand for highly skilled workers

• Technology distribution and refresh rates

• Information availability and knowledge development

• Climate change and resource scarcity

Origins of the Work

2008-10 – Academic work looking at society, governance, technology, war across the epochs

2013/14 – AIR FP OA Study with RUSI

• Core Finding: The RAF (and others) have a federated approaches to FP

2014 – Megatrends, Disruptive Technologies and 2/3* 5-Eyes Interoperability Board

• Core Finding: Growing convergence across the military and civ spaces

2014 – Disruptive Technology and Intelligence

• Core Finding: Access to tech, components, fab’s, skills will be an issue

2014/15 – Work developing better Intelligence systems for the civilian airline sector

2015 – RUSI/Bath University Army Futures conference

Deployed Air Operations Enablement Study – 2014-15

Open source exploration of how a wide range of threats and hazards have impact across the spectrum of air operations, and how these might develop in the face of emerging ‘megatrends’

Used a very wide aperture to explore a very broad range of threat & hazards to the air commander’s FoM.

Core Finding: Need to consider FoM in its widest sense: immediate tactical/operational through to long-term sustainment, development, and resilience are compressed through convergence…

Convergence

Which will drive further convergence between government and commercial objectives:

• ‘Petropolitics’ models expand to sectors involved in ‘all of the above’

Between military and civilian technologies and technology requirements across:

• Navigation• Logistics• Analysis

• Communications and information systems• Weapon systems (mainly components)

Which means civilian and military actors will compete for access to:

• Bandwidth• Space• Data

• Processors• Components• Brains/Skills

Examples (1)Autonomous Unmanned Systems:

• Unmanned autonomous systems as a key future aspiration – in military and civil sector

• Military markets (and wallets) are small relative to, for example, the global logistics market

• Commercial actors better able to adopt disruptive tech, than are (western) governments

• How do air forces fare in the competition for access to components, systems, fab’s, skills, et al?

Economics and the ‘Future of Work’

• Rapid redistribution of economic models and fast paced commercial environment

• On-Demand, cloud sourcing of high skilled labour

• Separation between deliverers (contractors, recruiters, freelancers) and the client

• How will air forces manage risks and issues regarding access to resources, information integrity, safety, security?

Examples (2)

Bandwidth

• Militaries and governments traditionally build capabilities rather than procure services

• Technology refresh rates mean much government procured CIS is obsolete on delivery

• Bandwidth will be at a premium in crises, as multiple actors fight for it

• How will 1) air forces compete for bandwidth and 2) plug their ‘aging’ kit into it?

Examples (3)

Other Examples

• Proliferation of threats:

• 3D printing: state & non-state access/entry levels • Patriarchal voids and the resurgence of ‘isms

• Environmental and Climatic

• Sea levels and wider flooding

• Data/Analysis…

• Demographics and labour….

• Networks and Cyber….

Examples (4)

FoM – Widening the Aperture

Force Protection Security

Resilience Business Continuity

Sustainment Safety

C2 CIS

Medical Contracts

HR Procurement

Information and Outreach TTPs

Intelligence and Understanding………….

• Where are current boundary judgements made regarding what constitutes a threat to FoM?

Boundary Judgements

• Where do those judgements allocate authority, responsibility and decision rights?

• How do your boundary judgements fare in the face of megatrends and convergence?

• How do they cope with migration/overlap around the model?

• Will your structures, approaches and cultures provide the kind of adaptive resilience required to manage disruptive trends?

Any Answers?

Getting more comfortable with risk (ironically…)

Agility & Resilience: doing what you do more quickly vs doing something different more quickly

Future vs Futures….

Protecting/Securing/defending vs Enabling

Wil Wilson

www.aw2consulting.co.uk

wil@aw2consulting.co.uk