an age of stagnation?

64

EUFO THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY Jason Swanson Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh Laura Schlehuber The European Futures Observatory AN AGE OF STAGNATION? © The European Futures Observatory 2014

Upload: cynthia-g-wagner

Post on 08-May-2015

186 views

Category:

Business

1 download

Report

Download

Embed Size (px):

DESCRIPTION

Presented by: Jason Swanson, Kate Burgess-MacIntosh, and Laura Schlehuber Much time and energy has been spent in an attempt to return the global economy to its pre-recession trajectory. What if it is not possible to return to business as usual? This session will examine the case against a return to business as usual.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 2: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 3: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 4: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 5: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 6: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 7: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 8: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 9: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 10: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 11: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 12: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 13: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 14: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 15: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 16: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 17: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 18: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 19: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 20: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 21: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 22: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 23: An Age of Stagnation?

The Basic Model Restated

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Degree of Diffusion

Time

The Age ofInformation

The Age of Scarcity

Growth Phase Maturity Phase1971 2001 2008 2030

Eruption

Frenzy

Crisis of Maturity

Synergy

Maturity

Eruption

Frenzy

Page 24: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 25: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 26: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 27: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 28: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 29: An Age of Stagnation?

The Basic Model Restated

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Degree of Diffusion

Time

The Age ofInformation

The Age of Scarcity

Growth Phase Maturity Phase1971 2001 2008 2030

Eruption

Frenzy

Crisis of Maturity

Synergy

Maturity

Eruption

Frenzy

Page 30: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 31: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 32: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 33: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 34: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 35: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 36: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 37: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 38: An Age of Stagnation?

The Basic Model Restated

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Degree of Diffusion

Time

The Age ofInformation

The Age of Scarcity

Growth Phase Maturity Phase1971 2001 2008 2030

Eruption

Frenzy

Crisis of Maturity

Synergy

Maturity

Eruption

Frenzy

Page 39: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Degree of Diffusion

Time

The Age ofInformation

The Age of Scarcity

Growth Phase Maturity Phase1971 2001 2008 2030

Eruption

Frenzy

Crisis of Maturity

Synergy

Maturity

Eruption

Frenzy

Page 40: An Age of Stagnation?

The Basic Model Restated

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Degree of Diffusion

Time

The Age ofInformation

The Age of Scarcity

Growth Phase Maturity Phase1971 2001 2008 2030

Eruption

Frenzy

Crisis of Maturity

Synergy

Maturity

Eruption

Frenzy

Page 41: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 42: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 43: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 44: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 45: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 46: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 47: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 48: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 49: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 50: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 51: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 52: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 53: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 54: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 55: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 56: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 57: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 58: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 59: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 60: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 61: An Age of Stagnation?

To misquote Churchill, it would be a shame

to let a perfectly good recession go to waste.

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 62: An Age of Stagnation?

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

Jason Swanson

Kate Burgess-Mac Intosh

Laura Schlehuber

The European Futures Observatory

AN AGE OF STAGNATION?

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 63: An Age of Stagnation?

Image Credits

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Page 64: An Age of Stagnation?

Image Credits

http://september-rose.co.uk/img/September_Rose_pair_of_court_wedding_rings_web.jpg

http://flags.redpixart.com

http://www.photo-dictionary.com/photofiles/list/419/788suitcase.jpg

http://dmjrecruitment.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/group_of_young_people.jpg

http://skreened.com/render-product/f/u/v/fuvfzejkcrjeoacsyqya/i-m-not-spoiled-i-m-just-well-taken-care-of-baby-one-piece.american-apparel-baby-one-piece.light-pink.w760h760b3.jpg

EUFOTHE EUROPEANFUTURESOBSERVATORY

© The European Futures Observatory 2014

Stagnation in Lifetime Incomes - WordPress.com...2 Stagnation in Lifetime Incomes: An Overview of Trends and Potential Causes Abstract Lifetime incomes have stagnated for the majority

Neoclassical age an age of satire

Stagnation Properties

INEQUALITIES, AGEING SOCIETIES AND SECULAR STAGNATION: …bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Paul-Swaim... · INEQUALITIES, AGEING SOCIETIES AND SECULAR STAGNATION: AN OECD VIEW

Radiation Effect on MHD Stagnation-Point Flow of a ...stagnation-point flow of a nanofluid over an exponentially stretching sheet under the assumptions of a small magnetic Reynolds

Macroeconomics in the age of secular stagnation · concluded that the state of stagnation will persist. The purpose of this article is to present the concept of secular stag-nation

Growth in Stagnation Times

The Victorian Period Victorian Period is an age of democracy, an age of popular education, an age of religious tolerance, an age of growing brotherhood,

Secular Stagnation

WFS - age of stagnation presentation

Stagnation in Lifetime Incomes...The Hamilton Project • Brookings 1 Stagnation in Lifetime Incomes An Overview of Trends and Potential Causes Fatih Guvenen University of Minnesota,

Compressible Flow - units.it...isentropic stagnation state. Stagnation enthalpy is the same for isentropic and actual stagnation states Actual stagnation pressure P 0,act is lower

Wall Roughness Effects on Stagnation-Point Heat …web.mit.edu/lienhard/www/wall_roughness_effects_impinging_liquid... · Wall Roughness Effects on Stagnation-Point Heat ... stagnation

MHD stagnation slip ow over an unsteady stretching …scientiairanica.sharif.edu/article_3558_afc8df598916e92dadbd0185c...Sharif University of Technology ... MHD stagnation slip ow

Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy

Structural Stagnation

Allowances and Stagnation Increment

An automatic, stagnation point based algorithm for the ... · PDF fileAn automatic, stagnation point based algorithm for the delineation of Wellhead Protection Areas ... complex configuration

Black Stagnation

Secular stagnation in historical perspective · 1948 –detailed discussion of Secular stagnation and its opponents Secular stagnation a feature of a wealthy, mature economy 1958

Stagnation nation

Becoming an Age Manager or Age Assistant

Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle...2016/10/14 · s=0 ns t: Each period, a fraction of age sindividuals die with an exogenous age-speciﬁc mortality probability s

Duality; Or, Metamorphosis: An Essay on Stagnation and

Investigating the stability of viscoelastic stagnation ...fpinho/pdfs/R3-JNNFM2009-T.pdf · stagnation ﬂow are the Reynolds number (Re), the Weissenberg number (Wi) and an elasticity

Mediavel Medicine. It is usually regarded as an age of decadence and of stagnation, and the very name “mediaeval” implies the negation of progress, and

Break Through Agile Transformation Stagnation

Economic Prospects for the EU – Doomed to Stagnation? · Economic Prospects for the EU – Doomed to Stagnation? An analysis of the current crisis and recommendations for reforming

Stability Analysis of Stagnation-Point Flow and Heat .... NORIHAN.pdfStability Analysis of Stagnation-Point Flow and Heat ransferT over an Exponentially Shrinking Sheet with Heat Generation

Globalization, Divergence and Stagnation

Stagnation & Tenurial Laws

A model of secular stagnation · 2015-03-09 · A Model of Secular Stagnation⇤ Gauti B. Eggertsson† Neil R. Mehrotra‡ This version: October 12, 2014 Abstract We propose an overlapping

Stagnation and components planning

The Great Stagnation

OpusCapita webinar SSC Stagnation