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ZionsBankEconomicOverview

UtahLeagueofCitiesandTowns

• June18,2018

UtahEconomic Conditions

PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.1%

UT1.9%

AZ1.6%

CA0.6%

NV2.0%

OR1.4%

TX1.4%

OK0.2%

CO1.4%

WA1.7%

ID2.2%

MT1.1%

WY-1.0%

ND0.0%

SD0.9%

MN0.9%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.5%

MO0.4%

AR0.5%

LA0.0%

WI0.4%

IL-0.3%

IN0.5%

OH0.3%

FL1.6%

TN1.0%

KY0.4%

MS0.0%

AL0.3%

GA1.1%

SC1.3%

NC1.1%

VA0.7%

WV-0.7%

PA0.1%

NY0.1%

ME0.4%

AK-0.2%

HI-0.1%

MA0.5%

VT0.0%

NH0.6%

RI0.2%

CT0.0%

NJ0.4%

DE1.0%

MD0.5%

MI0.3%

DC1.4%

KS0.2%

UtahPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

UtahCounties’GrowthOutpacingNation

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

0300,000600,000900,000

1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

34,886

3,101,833

22,587

2017

Sources:U.S.CensusBureau

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

e=estimate,f=forecast

UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange

UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2016to2017StateAverage=1.9%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

GreaterWasatchPopulation

GrowthRatesByCity

2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

SaltLakeCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

UtahCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

DavisCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

WeberCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

WashingtonCountyAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

CacheCountyAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:May2017toMay2018U.S.Rate=1.7%UTRate=3.4%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

1.0%to1.5%

0.0%to0.9%

Loss

1.6%to1.9%

2.0%+

UtahhastheFastestEmploymentGrowth

MA1.6%

NH1.9%

HI1.7%

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,6001996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

TotalNonfarmEmploymentSource:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand

UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighsGainof339,700jobsfromlowin

2010

Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2010

1.6% 0.5%

4.0% 3.6% 4.4%

3.1% 0.3%

4.5% 2.9%

7.6% -3.5%

-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018

Total:3.5%

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

4,000

2005,700

7,0009,100

2,600100

12,4003,700

7,400-300

-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:51,900

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

ChangesandDifferencesBetweenUSandUtahEconomies

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteAnalysisofBEANationalandProductAccountData

ChangesinUtah’sTaxbase

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteanalysisofUtahofficeofLegislativeResearchandGeneralcounseldata

UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyMay2017toMay2018StateRate=3.4%

1.0%to3.2%

0.0%to0.9%

5.0%+

3.3%to4.9%

Loss

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

VT3.4%

NH4.4%

MA3.8%

RI3.5%CT

3.9%NJ2.7%

MD2.6%

DC5.7%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

UtahHasthe11th LowestUnemploymentRateMay2018U.S.Rate=3.8%;UT=3.0%

6.0%+

5.5%to5.9%

4.8%to5.4%

4.0%to4.7%

3.9%orless

UtahUnemployment

RatesByCounty

April2018

StateRate=3.1%

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

4.0%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.1%orlower

3.2%to3.9%

7.0%+

DE2.5%

VT3.4%

NH4.4%

MA3.8%

RI3.5%CT

3.9%NJ2.7%

MD2.6%

DC5.7%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

UtahPersonalIncomeGrowth3rd HighestintheNationPercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016- 2017

U.S.=3.1%,UT=4.4%ID= 4.7%

3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

2016U.S.Rate=14.0%,UtahRate=10.1%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,AnnualCommunitySurvey1-yearestimate

NM19.8%

UT10.1%

AZ16.3%

CA14.3%

NV13.8%

OR13.3%

TX15.6%

OK16.3%

CO11.0%

WA11.3%

ID14.4%

MT13.3%

WY11.3%

ND10.6%

SD13.3%

MN9.9%

NE11.4%

KS12.1%

IA11.8%

MO14.0%

AR17.1%

LA20.1%

WI11.8%

IL13.0%

IN14.1%

OH14.6%

FL14.6%

TN 15.8%

KY18.5%

MS20.8%

AL17.1%

GA16.0%

SC15.3%

NC 15.4%

VA11.0%

WV17.8%

PA12.9%

NY14.6%

ME12.5%

AK9.9%

HI9.3%

MA10.4%

VT11.9%

NH7.2%

RI12.8%

CT9.8%

NJ10.4%

DE11.6%

MD9.6%

MI15.0%

DC18.6%

15.1% to 18.0%12.1% to 15.0%

10.0% or less

10.1% to 12.0%

18.1% +

UtahPovertyRate7th LowestintheNation

StrongConsumerSentiment

5060708090100110120130140

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:128.0

ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:110.7

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup

UtahInflationHitsHighest-LevelRecorded

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jul-2

011

Oct-2011

Jan-2012

Apr-2

012

Jul-2

012

Oct-2012

Jan-2013

Apr-2

013

Jul-2

013

Oct-2013

Jan-2014

Apr-2

014

Jul-2

014

Oct-2014

Jan-2015

Ap

r-2015

Jul-2

015

Oct-2015

Jan-2016

Ap

r-2016

Jul-2

016

Oct-2016

Jan-2017

Ap

r-2017

Jul-2

017

Oct-2017

Jan-2018

Apr-2

018

UnitedStatesCPI:+2.8% ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+5.0%

Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup

Utah5.0%

US2.8%

Year-over-y

earp

ercent

change

Utahhomevaluescontinuetorise

$95,000$115,000$135,000$155,000$175,000$195,000$215,000$235,000$255,000$275,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

UnitedStates Utah

UtahDec.2017$262,200

U.S.Dec.2017$206,300

Source:ZillowResearch

HouseholdCreationSurpassesHousingUnits

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitutePopulationProjectionsandIvoryBoyerConstructionDatabase

HomePricesIncreasingFasterThanWages

Source:WallStreetJournal

MultigenerationalHouseholdsontheRise

Source:WallStreetJournal

Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights e=estimatef=forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RetailSales

HomePrices

PersonalIncome

UnemploymentRate

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2016 2017e 2018f 2019f

UtahEconomicIndicators2016-2019f

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.comPhone:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

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